Saturday, 9 June 2012

A stock price must past 2 tests to be considered reasonable.

The most important task in buying a stock is to determine that the company is a good company, in which to own stock for the long term. 

However, no matter how good the company, if the price of its stock is too high, it's not going to be a good investment.

A stock price must pass two tests to be considered reasonable:

1.  The hypothetical total return

The hypothetical total return from the investment must be adequate - enough to contribute to a portfolio average of around 15 percent - sufficient to double its value every 5 years.

2.  The potential risk 

The potential gain should be at least 3 times the potential loss.




























To complete these tests, you have to learn how to do the following:

  • Estimate future sales and earnings growth
  • Estimate future earnings
  • Analyse past PEs (check the present PE relative to its usual average PE)
  • Estimate future PEs.
  • Forecast the potential high and low prices
  • Calculate the potential return.
  • Calculate the potential risk.
  • Calculate a fair price.


The real world of investing


There are 10,000 publicly traded companies in the US markets.  There are 1,000 publicly traded companies in the KLSE.  With so many companies out there to pick from, only a small minority will be suitable as LONG-TERM INVESTMENTS.

This means the great majority of companies you investigate will be unsuitable.  You should take some pains to screen for companies that meet your requirements.

If you don't realize this up front, and accept discouragement as a normal part of the process, you may tire of discarding company after company and give up.  Worse yet, you may relax your requirements and accept companies that don't come up to snuff. Either way, you'll lose.  

Remember:  You need to own only about 10 to 20 good stocks - that's all!  And there are plenty of companies to choose from to populate your portfolio.  So be patient and disciplined.  

Assemble a list of companies based on your quality criteria.  You will usually find that even if performance on your quality criteria has persisted - and this is usually the case for most - you'll find the price for many of these stocks unattractive.  When you first assemble this list, make no effort to assess the price, just the quality.

Some of these companies have been around a long time and are familiar to you: others are not so well known.  All have been publicly traded for at least 5 years on the major exchanges and all have revenues of more than $100 million.

The moral of the story here is that you should keep the faith.  There are plenty of fish in the sea for you, even though the sea is enormous and there are many more losers than winners.

Friday, 8 June 2012

Evaluating Company Quality

To buy a good stock, you only need to know if the company is a good-quality company and if the price you have to pay for its stock is reasonable.

A good-quality company is one whose growth, upon which you rely to increase the value of your investment, is strong and stable, and one in which management's efficeincy will enable it to continue that satisfactory growth. 

The first assessment of a company's quality is the analysis of its sales and earnings growth.

As a company passes through its life cycle, its success and its potential as an investment can be sized up at a glance.

Companies that are good candidates are easy to spot.

More important, companies that are not good candidates are even easier to spot.

As you become more experienced, you'll be able to gain more insight into what is in store for a company and why.

Thursday, 7 June 2012

The Reasons You Should Invest in Quality Growth Companies for the Long Term. Illustrated examples.


The reasons you should review your philosophy and strategy in stock investing:

1.  You can create wealth only by adding value to resources or by providing a service of value.
2.  Only investments in active businesses are capable of adding value.
3.  Owning a business, though very rewarding, is expensive and risky; butowning shares in a variety of successful businesses eliminates most of the risk while retaining most of the reward.
4.  Buying the stock of quality growth companies and holding it for the long term provides substantial, predictable returns. 
5.  Short term trading (BFS/STS) is unpredictable and stacks the odds against you, because it relies upon winning at some loser's expense and because there's no assurance that you won't be the loser.
6.  The benefits of long-term investing include carefree portfolio maintenance, the potential to double your money every five years, the deferment of taxes, and the fact that there are rarely any losers. 



Let's review the simple mathematics that makes this method work:

1.  Assume that 15 times earnings is a fair multiple for a good company and that the company earned a dollar per share last year.
2.  You will therefore pay $15 for the stock.
3.  In five years, the earnings will have grown to $2 per share.
4.  At 15 times earnings, the price will then be $30.

The value of your investment will have doubled - in five years!


Hopefully you're satisfied with the logic behind this investing approach and can see its advantages.  

Let's dispel any doubts you might have about whether you can be successful.



The best way to minimize the risk is to invest in good quality companies for the long-term, expecting not to make a killing but to earn as much as good quality companies are capable of earning for their shareholders.


Here are some examples of KLSE listed companies that have grown their earnings over the last 5 years.  Their earnings (green lines on the chart) have doubled or almost doubled over this period.  Therefore, assuming you have paid the fair PE for these stocks, your capital appreciation on the stock price would likewise have shown the corresponding gains.  Investing can be as simple as this:  invest into good quality growth companies at fair or bargain prices, and holding them forever, unless their business fundamentals deteriorated permanently.

Stock Performance Chart for Dutch Lady Milk Industries Berhad

Stock Performance Chart for Padini Holdings Berhad

Stock Performance Chart for Petronas Dagangan Berhad
Lastest EPS of PetDag was 91 sen.

Stock Performance Chart for Nestle (Malaysia) Berhad

Stock Performance Chart for Guinness Anchor Berhad

Stock Performance Chart for LPI Capital Berhad

Stock Performance Chart for Public Bank Berhad

Stock Performance Chart for Guan Chong Berhad
Guan Chong has shown rapid growth over the last year.  
Do not expect this growth rate to be sustained at the same level.
It doesn't have the same level of quality as the other companies above.


How many of these stocks do you need in your portfolio?
Over-diversification will lead to attenuation of your potential gains in your portfolio.

Tuesday, 5 June 2012

The Reasons You Should Invest in Quality Growth Companies for the Long Term

The reasons you should review your philosophy and strategy in stock investing:

1.  You can create wealth only by adding value to resources or by providing a service of value.
2.  Only investments in active businesses are capable of adding value.
3.  Owning a business, though very rewarding, is expensive and risky; but owning shares in a variety of successful businesses eliminates most of the risk while retaining most of the reward.
4.  Buying the stock of quality growth companies and holding it for the long term provides substantial, predictable returns.
5.  Short term trading (BFS/STS) is unpredictable and stacks the odds against you, because it relies upon winning at some loser's expense and because there's no assurance that you won't be the loser.
6.  The benefits of long-term investing include carefree portfolio maintenance, the potential to double your money every five years, the deferment of taxes, and the fact that there are rarely any losers.



Let's review the simple mathematics that makes this method work:

1.  Assume that 15 times earnings is a fair multiple for a good company and that the company earned a dollar per share last year.
2.  You will therefore pay $15 for the stock.
3.  In five years, the earnings will have grown to $2 per share.
4.  At 15 times earnings, the price will then be $30.

The value of your investment will have doubled - in five years!


Hopefully you're satisfied with the logic behind this investing approach and can see its advantages.  

Let's dispel any doubts you might have about whether you can be successful.



The best way to minimize the risk is to invest in good quality companies for the long-term, expecting not to make a killing but to earn as much as good quality companies are capable of earning for their shareholders.




Focus on Investing in Growth Companies for the Long Term

Since the early 1940s, when World War II brought the Depression to an end, there has never been a long-term catastrophe in the stock market.  Even in the worst of times, good companies continue to earn, and many stocks buck the trend.  To be sure, some of the weaker companies with poor management fold, but the well-managed, strong companies quickly scoop up their market share and life goes on.

Focus on investing in growth companies for the long term and , if the time arises when you need to take cash out of your account, sell off portions of your losers - the ones whose sales and profit growth is sluggish, not necessarily the ones whose prices are down.

This will assure you that when the market comes back up, which it surely will, you'll have a portfolio of winners.  Have faith that the companies you own a piece of will perform well in the long term and so, therefore, will your investments.  (And gloat as you continue to rack up 15-percent years while your contemporaries are pulling down 6 percent and paying the taxes on it every month.)

Monday, 4 June 2012

Spain is in 'total emergency’, the EU in total denial



After a Spanish exit from the euro, there would be nothing left to exit from.

Greece on brink of collapse - Spain is in 'total emergency’, the EU in total denial
Greece in turmoil: but its significance has shrinked in comparison to the possibility of a spectacular crash in Spain, the fourth largest economy in the EU Photo: AFP/GETTY
I’ve never actually heard the term “total emergency” before, at least not in the context of global economics. It sounds like the title of a disaster movie. When it is uttered in sober tones by the elder statesman of an advanced democracy to describe his country’s financial condition, the effect is rather startling.
The man who delivered this apocalyptic judgment, former Spanish prime minister Felipe González, being a socialist, might be expected to detest austerity programmes that require cuts to government spending. But there seemed to be few disinterested observers of Spain’s economy prepared to quibble with his assessment.
Forget Grexit. Greece’s teeny, tiny economy is a footnote now. As is Ireland’s decision – which seemed more like a sigh of resignation than a plebiscite – to engage in however much self-flagellation the EU gods insist on, for however long it takes. What might have seemed dramatic a week or so ago has now shrivelled in importance by comparison to the realistic possibility of a spectacular crash in the fourth largest economy in the EU. Spexit (and Spanic) are lodged in the lexicon, and have become part of the psychological reality that moves markets. The equivalent of more than £55 billion was withdrawn and transported out of Spain last month – and that was before the country’s largest bank was nationalised. No one seems to be kidding himself that the collapse of the Spanish economy could be somehow weathered and overcome, as the default of Greece might be.

Read more here:

Boustead's 421,460 shares crossed 15% below Friday close


KUALA LUMPUR: Boustead Holdings Bhd's 421,460 shares were transacted in an off-market deal on Monday at RM4.35.

Stock market data showed at RM4.35, this was 15% or 77 sen below last Friday's closing price of RM5.12
At 3.41pm, its share price was down nine sen to RM5.03 in regular trade.
Boustead's paid-up is 1.034 billion shares.

The week that Europe stopped pretending


The euro has essentially broken down as a viable economic and political undertaking. The latest rush of events reeks of impending denouement.

A one euro coin is melted with a welding torch in this photo illustration
The debt markets are pricing in for a global deflationary bust. Europe will have to restore shattered trust in the worst possible circumstances Photo: Reuters
Switzerland is threatening capital controls to repel bank flight from Euroland. The Swiss two-year note has fallen to -0.32pc, not that it seems to make any difference.
Denmark’s central bank said it was battening down the hatches for a "splintering" of EMU. It has cut interest rates twice in a matter or days and pledged to do whatever it takes to stop euros flooding into the country. Contingency plans are on the lips of officials in every capital in Europe, and beyond.
On a single day, the European Commission said monetary union was in danger of "disintegration" and the European Central Bank said it was "unsustainable" as constructed. Their plaintive cries may have fallen on deaf ears in Berlin, but they were heard all too clearly by investors across the world.
Joschka Fischer, Germany’s former vice-Chancellor, said EU leaders have two weeks left to save the project.
"Europe continues to try to quench the fire with gasoline – German-enforced austerity. In a mere three years, the eurozone’s financial crisis has become an existential crisis for Europe."
"Let’s not delude ourselves: If the euro falls apart, so will the European Union, triggering a global economic crisis on a scale that most people alive today have never experienced," he said.
Mr Fischer has the matter backwards. The euro itself is the chief cause of the existential crisis he discerns. Yet he is right that three precious year have been squandered, and that Europe‘s policy mix has been atrociously misguided. The pace of fiscal tightening has been too extreme, made much worse by the ECB’s monetary tightening last year. This inflicted a double-barrelled shock on Southern Europe. The whole region was forced back into slump before it had reached "escape velocity".
The window of opportunity offered by US recovery is slamming shut again. America’s dire jobs data for May - and the downward revision for April - confirm the fears of cycle specialists that the US economy has slipped below stall speed. America risks tanking back into recession as the "fiscal cliff" approaches late this year, unless the Fed comes to the rescue again soon.
Brazil wilted in the first quarter. India grew at the slowest pace in nine years. China’s HSBC manufacturing index fell further into contraction in May, with new orders dropping sharply and inventories rising.
We face the grim possibility that all key engines of the global system will sputter together, this time with interest rates already near zero in the West and average public debt in the OECD club already at a record 106pc of GDP.
"The world’s largest emerging economies are no longer in a position to carry the global economy through tough times, as they did during the 'recovery' years of 2009-2011," said China expert Andy Xie.
The warnings from the bond markets could hardly be clearer. German 10-year Bund yields closed at 1.17pc. The two-year notes turned negative. British Gilts closed at 1.53pc, the lowest in 300 years. US Treasuries fell to 1.45pc, lower than at any time during the Great Depression.
The debt markets are pricing in for a global deflationary bust. Europe will have to restore shattered trust in the worst possible circumstances.
If deposit flight from Spain was €66bn in March before the Greek election tore away the pretence that Europe had solved anything, one dreads to think what it will be in April and May when the data come out.
Alberto Gallo from RBS says Spain will need an EU rescue package of €370bn to €450bn to bail out its crippled property lenders and limp through to 2014, pushing public debt to 110pc of GDP.
This would be the biggest loan package in history by a huge margin. Whether the EU bail-out fund could raise the money on the global markets at viable cost is an open question.
Spanish premier Mariano Rajoy vowed in any case last week that there would no such rescue. It is not a vow he can break quickly or easily, whatever dissidents in his party may want.
Mr Rajoy is gambling that Germany will blink first, letting the ECB intervene in the bond markets to cap Spanish yields.
Europe’s officials seem to think Spain can be pushed into a bail-out - as Ireland and Portugal were pushed - but it is far from clear that Mr Rajoy will accept the long agony of debt-deflation, or take lessons from Brussels.
Heretical thoughts are gaining traction. El Confidencial suggested that Spain should engage in "blackmail" against the EU ("chantaje" in Spanish). "Rajoy has a card up his sleeve: leaving the euro. It is not the best option, and fundamentally it is not what most people want. But the time has come to make Brussels a poisonous proposal: "we have already done everything we possibly can, and if you won’t help us, we will leave," it said.
Mr Rajoy has not yet reached such a desperate point, yet his language over the weekend has an ambiguous feel. "We must ensure that the euro remains the currency of our countries," he told Catalan business leaders.
A group of leading professors wrote a joint appeal in Expansion, exhorting the Spanish nation to muffle their ears and resist the "siren song" of those arguing - and gaining ground - that liberation lies at hand with an "Argentine" dash for the peseta and economic sovereignty. It has come to this.
Italy is scarcely more predictable. Ex-premier Silvio Berlusconi offered us his cunningly pitched "mad idea" on Friday. If the ECB refuses to act as a lender of last resort, Italy should take matters into its own hands. "We should use our own mint to print euros," he said. It is a thinly veiled threat.
"People are in shock. Confidence has collapsed. We have never had such a dark future," he said. Indeed, the jobless rate for youth has jumped from 27pc to 35pc in a year. Terrorism has returned. Anarchists knee-capped the head of Ansaldo Nucleare last month. Italy’s tax office chief was nearly blinded by a letter bomb.
"If Europe refuses to listen to our demands, we should say 'bye, bye’ and leave the euro. Or tell the Germans to leave the euro if they are not happy," he said.
Mr Berlusconi is no longer prime minister. But he still controls the biggest bloc of seats in the Italian parliament and can bring the technocrat government of Mario Monti to its knees at any time.
His point is entirely valid in any case. The ECB’s failure to ensure financial stability - the primary task of any central bank - is shockingly irresponsible. It is this that has driven his country into a liquidity crisis. What did Italy do wrong to justify a surge in bond spreads to a record 464 basis points last week? It is close to primary budget surplus, and has been for five years.
Germany can break the logjam at any time by agreeing to fiscal union, debt-pooling and full mobilization of the ECB, with all that this implies for its democracy. The answer from Chancellor Angela Merkel over the weekend was "under no circumstances". In that case, prepare for the consequences.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/9309669/The-week-that-Europe-stopped-pretending.html

Only those who will be sellers of equities in the near future should be happy at seeing stocks rise. Prospective purchasers should much prefer sinking prices.

If I can’t convince you that a market downturn is no reason to panic, maybe the world’s greatest investor can. In his 1997 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, Warren Buffett wrote:

A short quiz: If you plan to eat hamburgers throughout your life and are not a cattle producer, should you wish for higher or lower prices for beef? Likewise, if you are going to buy a car from time to time but are not an auto manufacturer, should you prefer higher or lower car prices? These questions, of course, answer themselves.


But now for the final exam: If you expect to be a net saver during the next five years, should you hope for a higher or lower stock market during that period? Many investors get this one wrong. Even though they are going to be net buyers of stocks for many years to come, they are elated when stock prices rise and depressed when they fall. In effect, they rejoice because prices have risen for the “hamburgers” they will soon be buying. This reaction makes no sense. Only those who will be sellers of equities in the near future should be happy at seeing stocks rise. Prospective purchasers should much prefer sinking prices.

The next time the stock market takes a tumble, remember Buffett’s advice. And then go out and buy yourself some hamburgers!