Bullbear Buffett

Friday, 22 June 2012

Investor's Checklist: Media

Look for media companies that consistently generate strong free cash flow. We like to see free cash flow margins around 10 percent.

Seek out companies that have high market share in their primary markets - monopolies are often great for profits. Licenses, especially in broadcasting, also serve to reduce competition and keep profit margins high.

Seek out companies with a history of well-executed acquisitions that have been followed by higher margins.

A strong balance sheet enables media companies to make selective acquisitions without increasing the risk for shareholders or diluting the shareholders' ownership stake.

Look for candid management teams, a history of sensible acquisitions, and either conservative reinvestment of shareholders' capital or the return of capital to shareholders through dividends and stock repurchases.

Don't chase hits. Buying a stock because there's a lot of buzz about a hit movie or TV show rarely pays off.

Ref: The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing by Pat Dorsey

Read also:
Investor's Checklist: A Guided Tour of the Market...

Investor's Checklist: Telecom

Shifting regulations and new technologies have made the telecom industry far more competitive. Though some areas are more stable than others, look for a wide margin of safety to any estimate of value before investing.

Telecom is a capital-intensive business. Having the resources to maintain and improve the network is critical to success.

Telecom is high fixed-cost business. Keeping an eye on margins is very important.

Watching debt is also important. Firms can easily overextend themselves as they build networks.

The price of wireless airtime is plummeting. Carriers continue to compete primarily on price.

Ref: The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing by Pat Dorsey

Read also:
Investor's Checklist: A Guided Tour of the Market...

Investor's Checklist: Consumer Goods

Find companies that enjoy the cost advantages of manufacturing on a larger scale than most other competitors. One related issue is whether the firm holds dominant market share in its categories.

Look for the firms that consistently launch successful new products - all the better if the firm is first to market with these innovations.

Check to see if the company is supporting its brand with consistent advertising. If the firm constantly promotes its products with sale prices, it's depleting brand equity and just milking the brand for shorter-term gain.

Examine how well the firm is handling operating costs. Occasional restructuring can help squeeze out efficiency gains and lower costs, but if the firm is regularly incurring restructuring costs and relying solely on this cost-cutting tactic to boost its business, tread carefully.

Because these mature firms generate so much free cash flow, it's important to make sure management is using it wisely. How much of the cash is turned over to shareholders in the form of dividends or share repurchase agreements?

Keep in mind that investors may bid up a consumer goods stock during economic downturns, making the shares pricey relative to its fair value. Look for buying opportunities when shares trade with a 20 percent to 30 percent margin of safety.

Ref: The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing by Pat Dorsey

Read also:
Investor's Checklist: A Guided Tour of the Market...

Investor's Checklist: Industrial Materials

This is a very traditional Old Economy sector, with many hard assets and high fixed costs.

Industrial materials are divided into commodity producers (steel, chemicals) and producers of noncommodity value-added goods and services (machinery, some specialty chemicals).

Buyers of commodities choose their produce on price - otherwise, commodities are the same product, regardless of who makes them.

The sales and profits of companies in this sector are very sensitive to the business cycle.

Very few industrial materials companies have any competitive advantages; the exceptions are those in concentrated industries (e.g., defense), those with a specialized niche product (e.g., Alcoa, some chemicals makers), and, above all, those that can produce their goods at the lowest cost (e.g., Nucor).

Only the most efficient producers will survive the downturn: The best bet is to be the low-cost producer and owe little debt.

Asset turnover (total asset turnover [TATO] and fixed asset turnover [FATO] measure a manufacturing firm's efficiency.

Watch out for industrial firms with too much debt, large underfunded pension plans, and big acquisitions that distract management.

Ref: The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing by Pat Dorsey

Read also:
Investor's Checklist: A Guided Tour of the Market...

Investor's Checklist: Energy

The profitability of the energy sector is highly dependent on commodity prices. Commodity prices are cyclical, as are the sector's profits. It's better to buy when prices are at a cyclical low than when they're high and hitting the headlines.

Even though the sector is largely cyclical, many energy companies keep their bottom lines black during the troughs. Look for this characteristic in your energy investments.

OPEC is a highly beneficial force in the energy sector because it keeps commodity prices above its costs. It is worth keeping tabs on the cartel's strength.

Because of OPEC, we view exploration and production as a much more attractive area than refining and marketing.

Working in a commodity market, economies of scale are just about the only way to achieve a competitive advantage. As such, bigger is generally better because firms with greater heft tend to be more profitable.

Keep an eye on reserves and reserve growth because these are the hard assets the company will mine for future revenue.

Companies with strong balance sheets will weather cyclical lows better than those burdened with debt. Look for companies that don't need to take on additional debt to invest in new projects while also paying dividends or repurchasing shares.

Ref: The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing by Pat Dorsey

Read also:
Investor's Checklist: A Guided Tour of the Market...

Thursday, 21 June 2012

Investor's Checklist: Utilities

Utilities are no longer the safe havens they once were. Treat them with an appropriate amount of caution.

The competitive structure utilities must operate under is largely set at the state level. Some states have gone far along the deregulation path; others have utilities that are fully regulated. Keeping track of changing regulations in different states can be maddening, but it is necessary to understand the sector.

Regulated utilities tend to have wide economic moats because they operate as monopolies, but it is important to keep in mind regulation does not allow these firms to parlay this advantage into excess returns. In addition, regulation can (and often does) change.

Another risk all utilities face - deregulated or not - is environmental risk. Most power plants generate pollution of some kind. Should environmental regulation tighten, costs could go up.

Utilities have a great deal of leverage, both operational and financial. This is not so important for regulated firms, but it exponentially raises risk for companies facing increasing competition.

If you buy a utility for its dividend, make sure the firm has the financial wherewithal to keep paying it.

Utilities that operate in stable regulatory environments with relatively strong balance sheets while staying focused on their core businesses are the best bets in the sector.

Ref: The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing by Pat Dorsey

Warren Buffett quotes

Is It Better To Be Book Smart Or Street Smart?

June 20, 2012

If you ask most people this question, you're likely to get answers that go down party lines. Those without advanced education will likely say that they've done just fine without spending a lot of time in the classroom, while people with a lot of formal academic knowledge would say that success is largely the result of education. This is more than a trivial debate. Recent statistics from the Federal Reverse show that the American middle class has seen its net income drop 40% from 2007-2010. What was an average net worth of $126,400 shrunk to $77,300 in 2010. Even worse, the Pew Charitable Trusts' Economic Mobility Project found that 42% of people whose father was in the bottom fifth of the earning curve remained in the same earning bracket for life. Only 30% of Britons and 25% of Danes and Swedes were destined to the same fate. This has led some people to believe that America isn't the land of opportunity it once was. Americans in the now-popular 99% are not only upset that the divide between rich and poor continues to widen, they want to know how they can assure a better life for themselves and their families. Is a
better paying job impossible without a formal education, or is there hope for the non-college educated?

Steve Jobs, co-founder of Apple, is widely regarded as one of the best business men of his day. He didn't have a college degree and neither did Steve Wozniak, the other founder of Apple. Other successful businessmen without college degrees include Dell Computer founder Michael Dell, Microsoft founder Bill Gates and Virgin Brands founder Richard Branson. People all over the world have found success without a college degree, but is that the rule or the exception? Unemployment data shows that more than 8% of the population looking for a job can't find one. However, for those with a bachelor's degree, the unemployment rate is only 3.9%. The unemployment rate is 13% for people without a high school diploma. A college degree doesn't guarantee success, but BLS unemployment statistics show book smarts more than double your chances of finding a job.

Who Works Harder?
One side believes that book smarts allows you to get a higher-earning job and work less, while poorer Americans remain poor because they are forced to work more hours for less money. A paper by Orazio Attanasio, Erik Hurst and Luigi Pistaferri found that higher-educated people work more hours than poorer income groups. Although income inequality is growing, leisure inequality is growing, too. While higher earners are earning more, they're losing more leisure time in order to do it. Lower-educated men had 35.2 hours of weekly leisure time (socializing, gaming, watching TV, etc.) compared to 35 hours when the study was last conducted. Higher-earning men had 33.2 hours compared to 34.4 hours previously. Less educated women saw their leisure time grow to 35.2 hours from 35 hours. Higher-educated women went down to 30.3 hours compared to the previously reported 32.2 hours. The study mentions that some of the increase in hours at the lower income levels comes from increased unemployment, but only half of the increase could be attributed to that.

The Bottom Line
Some consumer finance experts believe that becoming more financially prosperous is as much a function of cost control as it is advanced degrees and higher-paying jobs. Statistics seem to indicate that more education dramatically increases a person's chances of achieving financial prosperity, but one basic rule remains largely uncontested: a college degree may help to open doors to a better paying job, but hard work and responsible choices is the best path to career and financial success.

by Tim Parker

http://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0612/Is-It-Better-To-Be-Book-Smart-Or-Street-Smart.aspx#axzz1yNRqRlmR

Risk-Return Tradeoff

Definition of 'Risk-Return Tradeoff'

The principle that potential return rises with an increase in risk.

Low levels of uncertainty (low risk) are associated with low potential returns, whereas high levels of uncertainty (high risk) are associated with high potential returns.
According to the risk-return tradeoff, invested money can render higher profits only if it is subject to the possibility of being lost.

Investopedia explains 'Risk-Return Tradeoff'

Because of the risk-return tradeoff, you must be aware of your personal risk tolerance when choosing investments for your portfolio.

Taking on some risk is the price of achieving returns; therefore, if you want to make money, you can't cut out all risk.
The goal instead is to find an appropriate balance - one that generates some profit, but still allows you to sleep at night.

Reinvestment Risk

Definition of 'Reinvestment Risk'

The risk that future coupons from a bond will not be reinvested at the prevailing interest rate when the bond was initially purchased.

Reinvestment risk is more likely when interest rates are declining.
Reinvestment risk affects the yield-to-maturity of a bond, which is calculated on the premise that all future coupon payments will be reinvested at the interest rate in effect when the bond was first purchased.
Zero coupon bonds are the only fixed-income instruments to have no reinvestment risk, since they have no interim coupon payments.

Investopedia explains 'Reinvestment Risk'

Two factors that have a bearing on the degree of reinvestment risk are:

Maturity of the bond - The longer the maturity of the bond, the higher the likelihood that interest rates will be lower than they were at the time of the bond purchase.
Interest rate on the bond - The higher the interest rate, the bigger the coupon payments that have to be reinvested, and consequently the reinvestment risk.

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My 18 points guide to Successfully compounding your money in Stocks

Be a good stock picker.
Think as a business owner.
Always look at value rather than the price. Do the homework.
Buy and hold is alright for selected stocks.
Compounding is your friend, get this to work its magic.
Mr. Market is there to be taken advantage of. Do not be the sucker instead. BFS;STS.
Always buy a lot when the price is low.
Never buy when the stock is overpriced.
It is alright to buy when the selected stock is at a fair price.
Phasing in or dollar cost averaging is safe for such stocks during a downtrend, unless the price is still obviously too high.
Do not time the market for such or any stocks.
By keeping to the above strategy, the returns will be delivered through the growth of the company's business.
So, when do you sell the stock? Almost never, as long as the fundamentals remain sound and the future prospects intact.
The downside risk is protected through only buying when the price is low or fairly priced.
Tactical dynamic asset allocation or rebalancing based on valuation can be employed but this sounds easier than is practical, except in extreme market situations.
Sell urgently when the company business fundamental has deteriorated irreversibly.
You may also wish to sell should the growth of the company has obviously slowed and you can reinvest into another company with greater growth potential of similar quality. However, unlike point 16, you can do so leisurely.
In conclusion, a critical key to successful investing is in your stock picking ability.

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2012/07/my-18-points-guide-to-successfully.html

11 Lessons From Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch taught me:

1. Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.
2. Never invest in any idea you can’t illustrate with a crayon.
3. Over the short term, there may be no correlation between the success of a company’s operations and the success of its stock. Over the long term, there’s a 100% correlation.
4. Buying stocks without studying the companies is the same as playing poker – and never looking at your cards.
5. Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies.
6. Owning stock is like having children. Don’t get involved with more than you can handle.
7. When the insiders are buying, it’s a good sign.
8. Unless you’re a short seller, it never pays to be pessimistic.
9. A stock market decline is as predictable as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you’re prepared, it can’t hurt you.
10. Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach.
11. Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what’s actually happening to the companies in which you’ve invested.

Lynch’s advice had a profound effect on my stock market approach. He taught me that investment success isn’t the result of developing the right macro-economic view or deciding when to jump in or out of the market. Success is about researching companies to identify those that are likely to report positive surprises.

Capital Expenditure

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 25%. Less is better.

Capital Expenditures are expenses on:
- fixed assets such as equipment, property, or industrial buildings
- fixing problems with an asset
- preparing an asset to be used in business
- restoring property
- starting new businesses

A good company will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 50%.

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of less than 25%.

Less is better.

Benjamin Graham's 113 Wise Words

The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons' mistakes of judgement."

Philip Fisher's Wise Words

"The refusal to sell at a loss, while completely natural and normal, is probably one of the most dangerous in which we can indulge ourselves in the entire investment process.

More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could 'at least come out even' than from any other single reason. If to these actual losses are added the profits that might have been made through the proper reinvestment of these funds if such reinvestment had been made when the mistake was first realized, the cost of self-indulgence becomes truly tremendous."

(Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits)

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Here is the overriding primary test, followed by observations on why it is so critically important:

Knowing all that you now know and expect about the company and its stock (not what you originally believed or hoped at time of purchase), and assuming that you had available capital, and assuming that it would not cause a portfolio imbalance to do so, would you buy this stock today, at today's price?

No equivocation. Yes or no?

Answers such as maybe or probably are not acceptable since they are ways of dodging the issue. No investor probably buys a stock; they either place an order or do not.

Here is the implication of your answer to that critical test: if you did not answer with a clear affirmative, you should sell; only if you said a strong yes, are you justified to hold.

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Ideally a stock you plan to purchase should have all of the following charateristics:

• A rising trend of earnings dividends and book value per share.
• A balance sheet with less debt than other companies in its particular industry.
• A P/E ratio no higher than average.
• A dividend yield that suits your particular needs.
• A below-average dividend pay-out ratio.
• A history of earnings and dividends not pockmarked by erratic ups and downs.
• Companies whose ROE is 15 or better.
• A ratio of price to cash flow (P/CF) that is not too high when compared to other stocks in the same industry.

Margin of Safety Concept: Stocks should be bought like groceries, not like perfume

The high CAGR in the early years of the investing period, due to buying at a discount, tended to decline and approach that of the intrinsic EPS GR of the companies over a longer investment time-frame.

Chapter 20 - “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment

A single quote by Graham on page 516 struck me:

Observation over many years has taught us that the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions.

Basically, Graham is saying that most stock investors lose money because they invest in companies that seem good at a particular point in time, but are lacking the fundamentals of a long-lasting stable company.

This seems obvious on the surface, but it’s actually a great argument for thinking more carefully about your individual stock investments. If most of your losses come from buying companies that seem healthy but really aren’t, isn’t that a profound argument for carefully studying any company you might invest in?