Emerging market rally continues

Greek issue contained, macro-economic data looking fairly good: fund manager

• Bloomberg
• Published: 00:00 March 13, 2010
• 

• Traders sit at their desks at MICEX (Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange) in Moscow, Russia. The emerging markets gauge is heading for its longest winning streak since May.
• Image Credit: Bloomberg

London: Stocks rose as commodity companies and banks drove the MSCI Emerging Markets Index to its fifth week of gains. Gold led commodities higher, while the yen weakened.

The emerging-markets gauge rose 0.4 per cent at 10.50am in London, heading for its longest winning streak since May. Futures on the S&P 500 added 0.2 per cent, after the benchmark index for US equities on Thursday hit a 17-month high, while the MSCI World Index climbed 0.6 per cent. The yen fell against 11 of its 16 most-traded counterparts. Gold rose for a second day and nickel climbed for the first time in five days.

Emerging-market and high-yield bond funds each took in more than $1 billion (Dh3.67 billion) in the week to March 10, according to EPFR Global, a Cambridge, Massachusetts-based research company. European industrial output rose the most in more than two decades in January, signalling the recovery may be strengthening. Japanese Finance Minister Naoto Kan said intervention is an "option" when "markets move too abruptly".

"This is a continuation of the improvement in risk appetite," said Henrik Degrer, a fund manager at Svenska Handelsbanken in Stockholm, which oversees $36 billion.

"The Greek issue seems to be contained, so now we can shift again to the macro-economic data, which is looking fairly good."

South Africa's Sasol and Cnooc of China climbed, driving the MSCI emerging index higher. The Micex index in Russia, the world's largest energy supplier, advanced 0.9 per cent for the first gain in four days. The rouble strengthened 0.6 per cent against the dollar, heading for its biggest weekly rise this year.

The MSCI World Index of 23 developed nations' stocks rose 0.3 per cent, while the Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 0.3 per cent. Volkswagen AG, Europe's biggest carmaker, climbed 2.7 per cent in Frankfurt on speculation that Thursday's announcement of a convertible-bond sale reduces the likelihood of a rights offer.

Nikkei climbes

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.4 per cent as Japan's Nikkei 225 climbed 0.8 per cent. Nissan Motor, which gets about 77 per cent of its revenue outside Japan, increased 2.4 per cent.

US futures gained before a Commerce Department report at 8.30am in Washington that may show retail sales fell in February as blizzards kept Americans away from auto dealers and limited shopping at malls.

Purchases generally dropped 0.2 per cent after rising 0.5 per cent in January, according to the median estimate of 77 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Meanwhile, the yen weakened to 124.18 per euro, from 123.82. The pound strengthened 0.5 per cent to $1.5139 after UK house prices increased in February at the fastest pace in more than seven years.

The Swiss franc strengthened to 1.4589 per euro, from 1.4617 Thursday, even after the central bank said it would act to stem "an excessive appreciation" against the euro.

The Dollar Index declined 0.5 per cent to 79.922, paring its gain for the year to 2.7 per cent.

"The Bank of Japan is sensitive to the dangers of deflation, after the yen appreciated in the current cycle, and is looking at intervention, along with the Swiss National Bank," said Henrik Gullberg, a currency strategist at Deutsche Bank AG in London.

Silver

Silver added 0.7 per cent to $17.295 an ounce. Nickel for delivery in three months advanced 1.6 per cent to $21,625 a metric ton, taking its gain this year to 17 per cent, the most of any of the main metals traded on the London Metal Exchange.

Crude oil rose 0.3 per cent to $82.35 a barrel in New York, before a meeting of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries this week.

The yield on the 10-year Greek bond, the country's new benchmark, fell 1 basis point to 6.34 per cent, while the two-year note yield advanced 10 basis points to 5.12 per cent. The yield premium investors demand to hold the 10-year security over German bunds declined 4 basis points to 311 basis points.

The cost of protecting against a default on Greek government bonds rose, with credit-default swaps climbing 5 basis points to 307, according to CMA DataVision prices.

http://gulfnews.com/business/markets/emerging-market-rally-continues-1.596116

"Low Sweat Investing": This investor has a clearly defined investing strategy.

Investing is never ‘no sweat’ but how about some 'low sweat' investing? That’s what I call my personal investing approach, which I think can work well for people living on their portfolios (or planning to).

My approach is simple: a diversified portfolio of stocks with dividends that rise to offset inflation, high quality fixed income investments, as well as a few higher yielding diversifiers like REITs and other alternative asset classes. I've been investing this way since the bear market of 2000-2002 and it has served me well in good markets and bad.

I’m an everyday investor living in a California beach town. Before deciding to support myself solely through investing (which is making money) and writing (which is making no money) I worked for a large advertising agency.

I’ve researched and written a number of articles and other posts on Seeking Alpha, mostly about dividend stocks, but also on ETFs, the stock market and the economy. I also reviewed a couple of offbeat books for financial adventure lovers.

The articles (and many of the Instablog posts) include references and links to the important numbers, news, studies, analysts' views, and strategists' outlooks I uncovered in researching the stories. That way, readers who want to know more can check it all out, or just dig deeper into an item or two that interests them most.


http://seekingalpha.com/author/low-sweat-investing

Why Stocks That Raise Dividends Trounce the Market

There are many different approaches to investing, some of them successful.

But few attain the time-tested success of investing in stocks that consistently raise dividends. And there’s no doubt these stocks have produced astonishing returns, decade after decade.

Unbiased research shows stocks that raise dividends trounce the market, while stocks that simply pay dividends roughly match the market. In what I suppose is an obvious corollary, these stocks historically beat the snot out of stocks that don’t pay dividends, without breaking a sweat between punches. It’s really been easy for them.

OK, let’s run through the research numbers first, then move on to the more interesting discussion of what might be firing them up.

A well-known study by Ned Davis Research shows that from 1972 through April 2009 (the latest data I found) companies with at least five years of dividend growth, and those initiating dividends, punched up average yearly gains of 8.7%, compared with 6.2% for the Standard & Poor's 500.

Companies that maintained steady dividends also gained 6.2% annually, same as the market, but well below what dividend raisers scored.

And non-dividend payers? Lightweights. Beaten down to under a measly 1% a year. Right, under 1% a year for over 36 years. Same story for stocks that cut or eliminated dividends.

In another study, using a different group of stocks, time period and performance measure, AllianceBernstein researched the largest 1500 stocks by market capitalization from 1964 to 1999.

Results? In the year immediately following a dividend increase, dividend raisers’ average total returns were 1.8 percentage points higher than stocks that did not raise dividends.

Compound that over a decade or two of dividend hikes and you can head for the Porsche dealership. (Think I’m kidding? Over 15 years, an extra 1.8 percentage points pops nearly $90K more out of a $285,000 stock portfolio. You don’t have to spend it on a Porsche. But you could.)

Want some more recent numbers, from stocks with decades of dividend increases already under their belt?

Standard and Poor’s research through the end of 2009 shows their Dividend Aristocrats, stocks with at least 25 years of dividend increases, beat the S&P 500 over the trailing 3-years, 5-years, 10-years and 15-years.

And the beating was another knockout, ranging from as ‘little’ as two percentage points annually to as much as nearly five percentage points, depending on the time frame.

So it’s abundantly clear these stocks have better returns. Much better returns.

But why does dividend growth achieve such superb performance? And should investors even care why? After all, more money is more money and that Porsche is still a Porsche.

My opinion? I think there are at least three reasons, and many investors could likely benefit, if they care to look at them.

1.  First, it takes an outstanding business to increase dividends for decades, and outstanding businesses are often outstanding long-term investments. Weak businesses simply can’t and don’t raise dividends for decades.

• So if it’s true, like I think it is, that dividend increases and higher stock prices are both caused, in part, by strong businesses, then it’s vital to understand and monitor dividend-growth companies’ underlying business strength. 
• That’s why you see successful investors evaluating these companies’ revenues, earnings, cash flows, debt levels, returns on capital, stock valuations, and so on, rather than just jumping on the dividend.

2.  Second, I think it’s also likely that a series of dividend increases, in and of itself, eventually helps pull a stock price up.

• After all, if share prices did not follow dividends upward, over time these stocks would end up with monster double-digit yields. 
• But that doesn’t happen because if a yield gets higher than investors think the good health of the business justifies, they buy more of the stock until the yield reverts back down to a more normal range.

All other things equal, there's simply more buyer demand for Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), McDonald’s (MCD), Procter and Gamble (PG) and other outstanding businesses (name your choice) at 4% yields than at 2% yields, so the stock prices move in response.

Of course, all other things aren't always equal. Stock prices are messy, impacted by companies’ outlooks, the economy, market conditions and so forth. 

• But over time, yields that grow too high on healthy stocks revert to normal levels through the mechanism of buyers bidding up stock prices.

3.  Finally, in all that market messiness, investors who stick with a dividend growth strategy enjoy a powerful statistical advantage that amplifies their stock picking.

• This advantage is something statisticians call “baseline probabilities.” 
• To illustrate, suppose a fisherman can choose either of two nearly identical lakes. But one lake has two big fish and eight little fish in it, while the other has the opposite: eight big fish and two little ones.
• At any level of skill and experience, the fisherman’s chances of landing big fish are much better at the second lake. That’s the idea of baseline probabilities. 
• And research studies show there are lots more big fish in the pool of dividend raisers than in the other pools, especially the pool of stocks that don’t pay dividends, filled with so many little fish its average returns approach starvation.

All that said, a dividend-growth strategy isn’t for everyone. (It’s only for people who want to make money … kidding, just kidding!)

For example, skilled traders, technical analysts and investors who’ve simply developed unique expertise in other areas of the market certainly might decide that dividend growth is irrelevant to their investing approach.

As might those who believe corporate America brims with budding Warren Buffetts, all doggedly toiling away at brilliant but so far unrewarded capital allocation programs that make far better use of company cash than dividends would.

And on that note, oddly, some investors seem to delight in arguing that dividend raisers are inferior businesses and, despite the numbers, inferior investments. This, because finance theory says ever-higher dividends waste capital these companies could reinvest back into their business, as non-dividend payers do.

I say “oddly” because the most rudimentary logic tells you that if dividend raisers as a group were capital wasters, and non-payers were capital multipliers, the market wouldn’t reward the raiser-wasters with such monumentally higher returns.

For an in-depth look at the pros and cons of dividends, one that generated a geyser of often coherent comments, check out David Van Knapp’s Seeking Alpha article “Why I Love Dividends.”

And for profiles and analyses of a number of dividend-growth stocks, click thisMore Articles link and take your pick.

Finally, investors who prefer ETFs to stock picking might look at the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG). VIG’s total returns and dividend reliability have outperformed both the market and popular, higher yielding dividend-growth ETFs.

References and Links

Kiplinger Magazine, “Stocks That Pay Rising Dividends,” August 2009.

AllianceBernstein, “Why Dividends Matter,” November, 10, 2004.

Seeking Alpha, “Dividend Aristocrats: A Comprehensive View,” by David I. Templeton, January 22, 2010.

Additional acknowledgements: Thanks to all the Seeking Alpha authors and commenters who posted data and opinions that helped inform this article.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/193345-why-stocks-that-raise-dividends-trounce-the-market

Some Valuation Models are conservative, some are aggressive.

Friday, March 12, 2010

Valuation Models

A private equity player of my acquaintance once confessed that he had a basic rule of thumb about investments: double estimated expenses and halve projected future profits!


There are more systematic methods of valuation. Some valuation methods are themselves optimistic, others conservative. The multiples assigned to the valuation may also be conservative or optimistic. For example, the price to book value (PBV) ratio is a conservative valuation method. The underlying assumption: in bankruptcy, the investor will receive some portion of the original investment back. A cut-off PBV of 1 or less would be a conservative multiple.


But in an emerging market such as India with its high growth rates, a more optimistic PBV multiple can be assigned. In fact, if one examines average index PBV since 1991, the PBV has never dropped below 1.5.

A dividend yield-based valuation method is also conservative. It assumes no capital appreciation and treats the original investment like debt. Again, a high or low cut-off yield could be set depending on the risk-appetite.

Earnings growth-based valuations such as the PEG (Price-earnings to projected Earnings Growth) ratio are optimistic. A PEG valuation implies that a reliable projection of forward earnings and forward earnings growth is possible. A PEG multiple of less than 1 is conservative but the valuation method itself is optimistic.

Another, more conservative valuation method using earnings, is comparing earnings yield with the yield from a risk-free instrument. If the earnings yield is higher than the risk-free yield, the stock is worth investment. Again, conservative investors will keep greater margins of safety.

In a bull market, people give maximum weight to PEG ratios. In bear markets, more conservative methods come to the fore. At the peak of a business cycle, businesses will tend to be optimistically valued at high multiples. At the bottom, the same businesses will be available at low multiples.

In fact, historically, peaks and troughs in the same economy tend to be associated with similar levels of valuation. In India, bear market bottoms tend to be associated with conservative average multiples.  

• Usually the Nifty will be available at an earnings yield that is higher than the 364-day T-Bill yield. 
• The PEG will be well below 1. 
• The Price-book-value ratio will be down to less than 2.5 and 
• the Nifty's dividend yield will be over 2 per cent.

At the top of a bull market on the other hand, these multiples are all optimistic. 

• The PEG will be 1 or higher. 
• The earnings yield will be below the T-Bill yield. 
• The PBV will be higher than 4 and 
• the dividend yield will be below 1 per cent. 

Usually the PEG ratio is the last to go into the red zone by rising above 1. This is because the PEG is subjective and growth estimates tend to be optimistic during bull markets. There are minor variations but these average multiples have held good through the cycles of the last 15 years. This means that a conservative value-investor can buy when the multiples are in the bear-market range. And, it is time to sell when the multiples are in the range of a bull-market top.


Since January 2006, most of the valuation multiples have been high. However until late 2007, the PEG was below 1. It was only in early 2008 that the PEG rose beyond 1 and gave the final sell signal. By then, the market had already peaked.


The crash in October has pulled all the valuation multiples back close to the levels that would be expected at a bear market bottom. Right now, at a Nifty level of 2900, the PBV is at 2.42, while the dividend yield is 1.96 per cent and the PE ratio is 12.57, with an earnings yield of 7.9 per cent in comparison to the T-Bill yield of 7.4 per cent.


At the 2550 levels that prevailed for a while in late October, these multiples were even more attractive. The PEG ratio incidentally is close to 1. While the current PE ratios have dropped, so have the forward earnings growth estimates for 2008-09. But given the turmoil, there could be further EPS downgrades.


Is it worth buying into this market? Yes, it looks that way. Certainly systematic accumulation at these prices should work over the long-term.


This column appeared in the November 2008 Issue of Wealth Insight.

http://stockmakers.blogspot.com/2010/03/valuation-models.html

"The real key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them." Use a proven strategy and stay in the market for the long term.

 Lynch recognized that the stock market was unpredictable in the short term, even to the smartest investors. Over the long term, however, good stocks rise like no other investment vehicle. Lynch's philosophy: Use a proven strategy and stay in the market for the long term and you'll realize those gains, jump in and out and there's a good chance that you'll miss out on a chunk of them.

That, of course, means resisting the temptation to bail when the market takes some short-term hits and good stocks fall in value - no easy task. But as Lynch once said, "The real key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them."

Volatility is not risk. Avoid investment advice based on volatility.

So if volatility is not risk, what is?

The major risk is not the short-term stock price volatility that many thousands of academic articles have been written about. Rather it is the possibility of not reaching your long-term investment goal through the growth of your funds in real terms.

Click:
It sure beats FD rates and it is safe too.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tWENexpUrXS_RMxB7k73RgQ&output=html 
  
Take Home Lesson

Using the above definition of risk, stocks are actually the safest investment out there over the long term.

Investors who put some or most of their money into bonds and other investments on the assumption they are lowering their risk are, in fact, deluding themselves.

"Indeed, it goes against the principle we were taught from childhood - that the safest way to save was putting our money in the bank."


Also read:
The Four Essentials of Successful Investing
Forget about Everything Else and Buy Only Stocks
The story of Uncle Chua
Uncle Chua's Portfolio & Dividend Income 
Investment Owner's Contract
What keeps most individual investors from succeeding?
Think for Yourself
Controlling Yourself at Your Own Game: You are your own Worst Enemy
Controlling the Controllable
Time is Money for the Young Investor
Be a shrewd investor
Timing is of no real value to the investor unless it coincides with pricing
Be confident in the quality of your investments
To Invest or Not to Invest: That is NOT the Question
It is the Business that Matters
Finding companies that can be held long-term
Ten Habits of Highly Successful Value Investors

Newspaper Articles predicting the Market Bottom of March 2009

A market bottoms when we reach what is known as the "point of maximum pessimism". This means that investors have lost so much money they completely throw in the towel - and shares correct to an undervalued level.


"All the things are in place for the bear market to have ended," he said. "When there's a strong consensus, a very negative one, and cash positions are very high, as they are at the moment, I'd like to bet against that."



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/5252775/FTSEs-11-week-high-sparks-hope-that-bull-market-may-be-arriving.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/5252775/FTSEs-11-week-high-sparks-hope-that-bull-market-may-be-arriving.html

Market timing requires two smart moves

It’s no use taking money out of the market at the right time unless it is put back in at the right time. So to get the most from their move, you will have to be right twice.


And if he did know, he’d rather not tell. “I hate giving people financial advice,” he said. “If they make money they might say thank you; if they miss the next run-up, they hate you.” 


 Studies from the field of behavioral finance indicate that investors' confidence level--and in turn their perceived ability to handle risk--ebbs and flows with the market's direction. Thus, an investor might rate highly his own ability to handle risk at the very worst time--when the market is skyrocketing and stock valuations are high--only to exhibit much less confidence in the event of a market drop. (Not surprisingly, buoyant markets are also when most financial-services firms hawk the riskiest products.)


However, with the market dropping sharply over the past year, I'd wager that being too conservative is a bigger risk for many investors right now than is maintaining a portfolio that's too aggressive.


You should always sell when you have a better place to put your money -- and today, a host of superior companies are on sale.

A Long Look at Risk: Avoid making the wrong choices at precisely the wrong moments.

A Long Look at Risk 

Most of us aren’t honest with ourselves about how much investment risk we can handle. Even worse, we tend to change our minds at market tops and bottoms, making the wrong choices at precisely the wrong moments.

An accurate assessment of risk is important. But you can view risk in many ways.

RISK CAPACITY:  David B. Jacobs of Pathfinder Financial Services in Kailua, Hawaii, usually starts with risk capacity. Young people have a great deal of risk capacity, since they have their whole career ahead of them to make up for any mistakes. A football player might have much less risk capacity, since he could have only a few years of high earnings. And some retirees have plenty of risk capacity, if they have a solid pension.

RISK NEED:  Then Mr. Jacobs moves to risk need. Need is driven by goals.Someone with no heirs and $20 million in municipal bonds might not care so much about significantly growing the portfolio. But if that person suddenly becomes passionate about a cause, he or she may want to double that amount in a decade to create an endowment or put up a building.

RISK TOLERANCE:  Only then does risk tolerance become a factor. “You have to help people visualize what the risk means,” Mr. Jacobs said. “If a year from now, your $1 million is $700,000, how would it change your life? Does that mean you can’t go visit your grandchildren? I’m trying to dig down and make people think of exactly what their day would be like.”

But how do you know if a stock is "quality"?

Go for dividends.

It's a no-brainer that quality matters in a market like this. But how do you know if a stock is "quality"?


Dividends are one indicator. That's because dividend income--which is essentially a portion of company profits paid out to shareholders--helps offset fluctuations in a stock's share price, creating a cushion during turbulent markets. 


"During trying times, dividend-paying stocks tend to do well," says Paul Alan Davis, portfolio manager of the Schwab Dividend Equity Fund. Davis also looks for companies on solid footing, which have plenty of cash and aren't in "financial straits."  During the first 11 months of year, Davis says, the S&P's dividend-paying stocks fell by roughly 36 percent; meanwhile, nondividend payers were down about 45 percent. 


You'll find those dividend payers in more developed industries such as consumer staples, utilities, and healthcare. Examples include Philip Morris, Coca-Cola, General Mills, Bristol-Myers Squibb, and Pfizer.

The Best Stock Investment Strategy For Beginners

The Best Stock Investment Strategy For Beginners By James Leitz

The best stock investment strategy for beginners focuses on stock funds as the best stock investment to keep it simple, and emphasizes investment strategy over stock picking. You don't need to pick the best stock or even the best stock funds to do well if you have an investment strategy that keeps you out of trouble. Here's how to keep it simple and make money, with less risk.

Funds that invest in stocks are often called equity funds and they come in two popular varieties: mutual funds and exchange traded funds (ETFs). You can best get started on your own in one of two different ways: by opening a mutual fund account with a major no-load fund company, or by opening a brokerage account with a discount broker. Either way, you can put the best stock investment strategy for beginners that I know of to work for you.

Earmark this account as your stock investment account. All of your money will be either in stocks (equity funds) or in cash in the form of a money market fund that is safe and pays interest in the form of dividends. The key to our best investment strategy is that you are never 100% invested in equity funds or stocks, and never 100% invested on the safe side. Instead, you pick your target allocation and stick with it. I'll give you an example.

You don't want to be too aggressive, so you pick 50% as your target allocation to stocks. This means that no matter what happens in the market, you will keep half of your money in equity funds and half in the safety of a money market fund earning interest. This is your investment strategy, and it takes the need to make micro decisions out of the picture. You have a plan and you intend to stick with it to avoid major mistakes and the major losses that can result from emotional decisions.

Now let's take a look at how this simple investment strategy works to keep you out of trouble. Bad news hits the market and stocks go into a nose dive. What do you do? Since your equity funds will fall as well, if you fall below your 50% target you move money from your safe money market fund into equity funds. In other words, you buy stocks when they are getting cheaper. On the other hand, if stocks go to extremes on the up side, what do you do?

If your equity funds represent 60% or more of the total, you cut back to 50%. In other words, you take some money off of the table. How often should you move money back and forth? This best investment strategy is meant to be simple and not time consuming. When your asset allocation gets to 60-40 or 40-60, it's definitely time to move money. If you want to be more active, use 55-45 or 45-55 as your guidelines.

This stock investment strategy makes the buy and sell decisions for you so you can relax. Consider the bear market of 2008 when the market fell by over 50% by March of 2009. Stocks then went up about 70% over the next 12 months. Did most investors make money? Quite the contrary. They made poor decisions because they got scared and lacked a sound investment strategy. With this simple plan, you would be doing just fine in 2010. Plus, there would be no reason to fear a market reversal, because you have an investment strategy.

It's easy to move money back and forth between mutual funds, but be a bit careful. Don't do it any more often then is necessary. Second, to keep the tax issue simple do this in an account that is tax deferred or tax qualified... like an IRA or 401k. You can roll your existing IRA into an IRA with a no-load mutual fund company. Then your buy and sell transactions are not reportable for income tax purposes.

Do not go into the stock investing game as a beginner trying to pick the best stock investment. You'll never do it. Instead, go with a few equity funds, and include international equity funds as well. Then concentrate on the best stock investment strategy and sleep well at night.

A retired financial planner, James Leitz has an MBA (finance) and 35 years of investing experience. For 20 years he advised individual investors, working directly with them helping them to reach their financial goals. Jim is the author of a complete investor guide, Invest Informed, designed for average investors or would-be investors of all levels of financial background and experience. To learn more about investments and investing and his new financial guide go to http://www.investinformed.com. Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=James_Leitz

Slowly, Americans are regaining their lost wealth

Mar 11, 7:06 PM EST

Slowly, Americans are regaining their lost wealth

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Americans are recovering their shrunken wealth - gradually. Household net worth rose last quarter, mainly because the healing economy boosted stock portfolios. But the gain was slight. And it was less than in the previous two quarters.

The Federal Reserve said Thursday that net worth rose 1.3 percent in the fourth quarter to $54.2 trillion. It marked the third straight quarter of gains. But economists say consumers would need a stronger and more prolonged increase in their wealth to persuade them to ratchet up spending.

Net worth had risen by a more robust 4.5 percent in the second quarter of 2009 and an even faster 5.5 percent in the third quarter. Net worth is the value of assets such as homes, checking accounts and investments minus debts like mortgages and credit cards.

Even with the gain, Americans' net worth would have to rise an additional 21 percent just to get back to its pre-recession peak of $65.9 trillion. That illustrates Americans' vast loss of wealth from the worst downturn since the 1930s.

Growth in stock portfolios delivered the biggest lift to net worth in the October-to-December period. The value of stocks rose by nearly 4 percent to $7.7 trillion. Higher home prices helped a bit. The value of real-estate holdings edged up 0.2 percent.

During the recession, which began in December 2007, household net worth had plunged as low as $48.5 trillion in the first quarter of 2009. Stock holdings and home values nose-dived. As their net worth evaporated, Americans felt less inclined to spend.

For all of last year, consumer spending dropped 0.6 percent. This year, as wealth, the economy and financial conditions slowly recover, consumer spending is projected to grow around a modest 2.2 percent, according to the National Association for Business Economics.

By contrast, in 1983, when the economy was recovering from the 1981-82 recession, consumer spending surged 5.7 percent. Unlike past rebounds led by ordinary shoppers, this one so far has been driven more by spending from businesses, foreigners and - until it runs out - government stimulus. Consumers have been spending more lately. But they remain cautious.

"It would take a string of increases of a size that they believe can continue and that they can have faith in for consumers to really boost their spending," said Scott Hoyt, senior director of consumer economics at Moody's Economy.com.

Each dollar increase in household wealth translates into roughly three to four cents of consumer spending over two years, Hoyt said.

That isn't much.

Just ask Marcia Karon, 55, of Atlanta. She's felt little benefit from the economic rebound or the stock market. Her family's finances are being crimped in other ways. Her husband has taken two pay cuts in the past year, their property taxes remain high and "everything else is going up," she says.

"Things are tight," says Karon, who works at home as a calligrapher and bookkeeper. "Over the last year we've had to go through what little savings we had set aside just to get by."

Not until 2012 does Hoyt think household wealth will return to its pre-recession levels. A severe setback to the economy could delay it further, he added.

Americans reduced their borrowing last year at a record pace. They did so amid rising defaults on mortgages and credit card debt. The drop also reflected concern among households about their diminished net worth.

Household debt - including mortgages, credit cards, auto and student loans - contracted at an annual rate of 1.75 percent in 2009, the Fed report said. It was the first annual decline on records going back to 1945.

Benefiting most in the fourth quarter were those invested in the stock market. The Standard & Poor's 500, a broad barometer of stocks, climbed 5 percent in the quarter. The Dow Jones industrial average gained 7 percent.

But the gains have slowed this year. The two indexes have risen just 2 percent and 1 percent, respectively. Even with the market's rally, the S&P 500 is still 27 percent off its October 2007 peak.

Holders of 401(k) retirement accounts have recovered somewhat from the walloping they took in the meltdown. But even with continued contributions to those accounts, many are still struggling. Average account balances for 401(k) contributors ages 45 and older remained 2 to 3 percent lower at the end of December than at the end of 2007, according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute.

Some have fared better.

Julie Arnheim, 43, of Los Altos Hills, Calif., returned to work a year ago because the economy had beaten down her and her husband's finances. Now, thanks to the stock market's rebound, their net worth has come all the way back from a 30 to 35 percent drop.

"We've lost a year and a half of growth, but it's easy to be upbeat," says Arnheim, an entrepreneur. "There's a lot of retired people I know who were hurt, and they don't have the longevity for the market to come back and keep growing."

Forbes list: Robert Kuok is world's 33rd richest man

Robert Kuok, whose business empire covers palm oil, real estate, shipping and media, moved up from No 62 in 2009.  Sadly, he has been selling assets in Malaysia the last few years.