Saturday 20 March 2010

Danger of hedging your bets

John Collett
March 17, 201



The promise of high returns and low risk proved too good to be true.

Hedge funds were sold to small investors as a way to get a slice of the action that had been available only to wealthy individual investors or institutional investors.

But many hedge funds have proved a disappointment. The money in some, such as Astarra, went missing. Others, notably Bernard Madoff's hedge fund in the US, were no more than Ponzi schemes where new money was used to pay existing investors high returns.

Most hedge funds have produced poor returns and many have closed, or are in the process of closing, and are returning money to investors. Some other managers have frozen or restricted redemptions from their funds.

Before their reputations were shredded by the financial crisis, hedge fund managers operating in tax havens in the Caribbean or in the US and Europe were regarded as among the best and brightest of the funds management industry. They rewarded themselves handsomely. The funds tend to have hefty performance fees and, in the good times, hedge fund managers made a fortune for themselves.

They promised the low risk of fixed interest with the high returns of shares. These two things - high returns and low risk - have long been regarded as incompatible in the same investment. They also promised returns that were not correlated to the performance of the sharemarket.

In 2001, just after the launch of several hedge funds aimed at small investors, a leading financial planner, Robert Keavney, said there was "nothing on this planet that is more or less guaranteed to give double-digit returns every year". He said investors had other options available to them in volatile periods, such as fixed interest, property and cash, which are not correlated to the sharemarket.

The hedge fund promoters promised returns of between 10 per cent and 15 per cent a year after management fees, over at least three years, regardless of the direction of share and bond markets. For small investors, hedge funds were bundled up into one offering by the big fund managers. Investing in several hedge funds through "fund of hedge funds" was considered more prudent for small investors because individual hedge fund managers were considered too risky. Hedge funds are mostly small businesses and usually not subject to regulation, though there are moves by governments overseas to bring them into the regulatory net.

The funds of hedge funds invested in up to 30 underlying hedge funds across a variety of impressive-sounding hedge fund strategies. Some of the more popular strategies include "long short", which is where the manager bets the price of some stocks will fall and others will rise, and "macro" strategies, where the manager looks for small pricing differences between markets.

From their launch in the early 2000s until the crisis in 2008, most were producing average annualised returns of 8 per cent or 9 per cent - just below the promised 10 per cent to 15 per cent.

It took the crisis to disprove one of the key claims of the funds of hedge funds: that their returns were mostly not correlated to sharemarkets. When sharemarkets around the world dropped by about 25 per cent in Australian dollar terms during 2008, the returns of most of the funds of hedge funds dropped by about as much.


One factor hampering their performance was the hefty investment management fees. Most hedge funds charge their small investors an annual fee of 1 per cent to 2 per cent of the money invested and a performance fee of 20 per cent of any returns above zero or the cash rate. By comparison, most share funds charge fees of less than 0.5 per cent a year.

The head of research at Morningstar, Tim Murphy, says part of the reason for the poor performances of hedge funds during the crisis was because many were highly leveraged. He says many of the trading strategies produced fairly small returns and they borrowed to magnify these returns. But when credit markets dried up in 2008, many funds had trouble borrowing.

Another problem with hedge funds was illiquidity. Investors wanted their money back and so did lenders to the hedge funds, forcing them to sell their assets at the worst possible time at poor prices with their returns being savaged as a result.

The average annual returns over the past five years of the funds of hedge funds, given in the table, range from minus 12 per cent to 2.27 per cent. Murphy says it is "hard to argue" that small investors have been served well by their investments in hedge funds.

UNDERACHIEVEMENT
* Hedge fund promoters have failed to deliver on their promises.


* Hefty fees leave even less for small investors.


* As a result of the financial crisis, many had to freeze redemptions.


* Others are slowly handing back money.

http://www.businessday.com.au/news/business/money/investment/danger-of-hedging-your-bets/2010/03/16/1268501456367.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1

2010 Market Trading Strategy


DARYL GUPPY
February 23, 2010
    This chart pattern is the most frequent pattern of behaviour in the market.
    This chart pattern is the most frequent pattern of behaviour in the market.
    Running technical searches and scans is an important part of trade identification. It has an important drawback.
    The scans you select and use limit your search for opportunities and they prevent you from making a strategic assessment of the current market conditions.
    Many traders use the performance of the market index to provide some type of strategic background but this analysis does not easily transfer to all stocks.

    Every few months traders do an extensive visual scan of the market, looking at every chart. This gives a feel for the market behaviour. It helps to identify the most common patterns of behaviour, and this in turn helps to select new explorations. The chart pattern above is the most frequent pattern of behaviour in the market.
    The next most frequent behaviour is the sideways pattern. These patterns offer very limited trading opportunities.
    However it should be noted that the sideways pattern may become more dominant in market activity. If this is the case then traders will need to adjust trading methods to take advantage of the short term rally and retreat behaviour.

    It is important know what type of chart behaviour to avoid. It is also important to identify the chart behaviour which provides potential opportunities.  The classic is a GMMA trend rebound pattern.
    Stocks with this pattern are added to a stock pool for assessment with other trading indicators such as Count Back Line (CBL) and Average True Range (ATR).  Once the behaviour is identified, a new search parameters can be established which makes it quicker to find these broad conditions in the future.

    Based on observations in other markets, this rebound pattern offers good trading opportunities in current market conditions.

    Momentum trading opportunities continue to develop, but they are more difficult to catch. This example gives a 100% return in 3 weeks of trading. The key search component is based on returns of more than 10% over a 2 to 3 day period. This may be teamed with a volume filter.
    Chart pattern behaviour is also observed. Chart patterns are assessed in several ways. The first is to determine the frequency of the patterns. In some market conditions, some chart patterns occur frequently and are very reliable. In other conditions they occur less frequently and offer poorer opportunities.
    A visual search allows the trader to decide the frequency of the patterns. In making a decision about trading, the trader will asses the consistency of price activity and volume liquidity. The up sloping triangle in this example is a good pattern, but a poor trading opportunity because of the number of no trade days.

    Other opportunities include the classic GMMA trend trade with a mid-trend entry. These types of trades were successful in 2009, but in 2010 there is an increasing incidence of sudden trend collapse. Now the preferred entry point is when price moves near to the Trend Volatility Line (TVL line). This allows for a rapid stop loss exit to protect profits.
    The purpose of this scan is to identify the changes in the distribution of patterns. What are the dominant patterns of behaviour in the market?  
    The prevalence of downtrend and sideways patterns in the current market tells traders that caution is required in trading counter to these trends. Downtrends can be traded using CFDs to trade short but the preference here is to trade only the top 100 stocks with high liquidity.  
    The next step is to develop technical scans which will quickly extract stocks that are consistent with the dominant pattern behaviour. The third step is to apply trading analysis to the stocks in the stock pool to select the best trading candidates.
    Daryl Guppy, well-known international financial technical analysis expert.  He is an equity and derivatives trader and author of books including Share Trading, Trend Trading and The 36 Strategies of The Chinese For Financial Traders. His weekly analysis newsletters are followed in Asia and Australia.
    Information provided is in the nature of general comment only and neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice.

    Rally or Trend?

    DARYL GUPPY
    March 15, 2010
      With the XJO rebounding from support near 4500 and with resistance near 4900 is important to distinguish between a rally and a new uptrend. A sideways market calls for different trading methods.
      It's useful to know the difference between a rally and a trend because this determines the best trading methods to use. The difference tells the trader if he should use short term trading methods or trade for a defined percentage return on the trade.
      A rally may be part of an established uptrend. The rally lifts prices well above the long term uptrend line, but then prices retreat. The price retreat retests the uptrend line and uses it as a support. 
      These rallies offer short term trading opportunities. They are similar to a small bubble in the trend. This is shown in area 1 on chart 1. There is no change in the long term trend.

      A rally appears in an uptrend environment after a market retreat. A long term uptrend has developed a retreat. A rally develops when the price changes direction and moves upwards. This is area 2 on chart 2.
      The rally is a short term price movement continuing for 3 to 10 days. The rally often moves to a previous resistance level, and then retreats again. The rally is not a sustainable trend. In this situation the rally may be part of a longer term downtrend pattern. This confirms a change in the long term trend.
      A rally may also develop in a downtrend. The rally follows a fast retreat, or price dip, in the downtrend. The rally quickly lifts the price upwards until they hit the long term downtrend line. Then the price retreats and continues to move down. This is area 3 on chart 3. There is no change in the long term trend.
      A rally is a fast upwards price move that is in the opposite direction to the previous market retreat.
      Sometimes a rally will develop into a trend. When a retreat and rally pattern has developed as part of an uptrend then the rally develops into a new uptrend when the price moves above the previous resistance level. This is area 4 on chart 4.
      In this situation the rally turns into a new trend that may continue for several weeks or months. The rally becomes part of a continuation of the previous uptrend. This has the potential for a long term trend change.
      When a downtrend changes to an uptrend the first development is usually a fast price rally. When the rally breaks out above the downtrend line there is the possibility of a new up trend developing. Usually the rally breakout is followed by a small retreat and then another rally.
      The long term trend line is created when the pattern of rally and retreat behaviour has an upward bias. This is shown in area 5 on chart 5. Traders and investors look for this type of rally behaviour so they can join a developing long term uptrend.

      The danger in the current market is the development of a broad sideways trading band. The upper edge of the band is a resistance level and the lower edge a support level. In this market condition traders see frequent rally and retreat behaviour as the market moves sideways.
      This is shown in area 6 on chart 6.
      These rallies offer very short term trading opportunities with limited profits. Traders use MACD, Stochastic and sensitive momentum indicators including the parabolic SAR to trade in this environment.
      Many traders believe the market is developing a broad sideways movement with many short term rallies.
      A rally is a short term uptrend in prices that usually develops a retreat when it hits a resistance level.
      An up trend is a long term trend that continues for many weeks or months. Trends often start with rally behaviour so traders must be alert for the signals that show when a rally is developing into a trend.
      Daryl Guppy, well-known international financial technical analysis expert.  He is an equity and derivatives trader and author of books including Share Trading, Trend Trading and The 36 Strategies of The Chinese For Financial Traders. His weekly analysis newsletters are followed in Asia and Australia.
      Information provided is in the nature of general comment only and neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice.

      Smoothing investing extremes a question of timing


      ANNETTE SAMPSON
      March 20, 2010


        With growing talk of a possible second economic turndown, investors would have to have teflon-coated nerves not to consider the prospect with trepidation. Investing long-term and riding out the ups and downs is one thing, but do we really want to put ourselves through all that anxiety again?
        It's bordering on financial heresy, but there is growing interest and debate in strategies that allow investors to capture the best of market performance, without being totally hammered by the worst.
        Yes, we've all heard that it's time in the market rather than market timing that matters. And there is plenty of research around to show that investors who ride out the storms typically do much better than those who panic and sell at the bottom of the market. Unfortunately, most investors pick the wrong time to sell and miss out on the market rebound, as well as crystallising losses.
        But fund managers can be terrible hypocrites. While they encourage you to invest for the long term, most active fund managers buy and sell stocks as if they're playing pass the parcel. It is not uncommon for managers of share funds to turn over 100 per cent or more of their portfolio in a single year.
        Super funds have also increasingly been embracing strategies such as ''dynamic'' and ''strategic'' asset allocation - both high-falutin' terms for a bit of old-fashioned market timing. The funds won't make a big call such as completely selling out of the sharemarket (they'd probably generate a collapse if they did), but an increasing number are prepared to ''tilt'' portfolios away from sectors that they see as overvalued and towards those more likely to outperform - in their consultants' humble opinion, at any rate. And most investors think that's exactly what they should be doing.
        The problem is that ''market timing'' has traditionally been the province of traders and snake oil salespeople promising ways to get rich quick. If it was as easy as claimed, we'd all be doing it.
        So it was with mixed emotions that I agreed to a chat with the former NSW Treasury secretary, Percy Allan, about his latest business venture.
        Given his background, Allan is no fool. But he freely admits to being spooked by the global financial crisis and selling out of his stocks. Yes, he says, he knew that markets could go down and he knew the best advice was to sit tight. But faced with big losses - including the total loss of value of some portfolio stocks - he got out anyway.
        The problem was that having got out of the market, he had to decide when to get back in, and that was a tougher call. Left to his own devices, he says, he would have been too scared to make the move, so he started researching strategies for taking the extremes out of investing. The result is Market Timing, a venture with the former head of Standard & Poor's Asia-Pacific sovereign risk group and a former deputy secretary of the South Australian Department of Treasury and Finance, Alan Tregilgas, and a leading dispute resolution specialist, Bob Gaussen.
        The company uses seven technical indicators to gauge the trend of the market and to identify signals to buy and sell. It's like share-trading on valium. There is no stock-picking and no fundamental analysis of stock value. The company recommends investors buy exchange-traded funds over the market index or listed investment companies, and even the ''active'' strategy trades only five to eight times a year. There's a conservative strategy with three to four signals a year, and an ultra-conservative strategy that comes up with only one or two trading signals each year. It's not about second-guessing every market movement but avoiding the worst of the major downturns.
        Allan says back-testing over the past 25 years has shown the strategy outperformed ''buy and hold'' by 1.5 to 3 percentage points, although this doesn't include trading costs, tax or dividends. Rather than a get rich quick program, he views it as a risk management tool - a way to avoid the worst of the market falls while capturing much of the upside. The back-testing has shown much lower volatility than the overall index, which would be enough for Allan - even if there was no performance advantage.
        Of course, no system is foolproof and any form of market timing carries the risk of false signals - or being whip-sawed, as it's known in the jargon. This is what happens when the signals say one thing and the market heads off in the other direction. Allan says he switched from the active strategy to the conservative because he found he didn't have the stomach to risk being whip-sawed several times a year - even though he knows that over the long term, the active strategy is likely to perform better.
        For investors with a genuine buy-and-hold strategy, the extra trading and tax costs may also outweigh any benefits.
        It also must be said that Australian active fund managers have often outperformed the market. This is different to the US, where market timing and trend-following are more widely used and accepted.
        Nevertheless, Allan says, Market Timing is attracting interest from ex-traders who have been burnt and people hurt by the financial crisis too scared to go back into the market.
        Doubtless on Monday my inbox will be chockers with outraged comments from fund managers and financial advisers who believe market timing is for cowboys.
        But Allan was not alone in his response to the financial crisis, and professional investors as well as small investors have been asking whether there isn't a better way to manage risk in the sharemarket.
        It's a debate we probably need to have.


        Comment:  Yet again, not a totally fool-proof method.
        http://www.smh.com.au/business/smoothing-investing-extremes-a-question-of-timing-20100319-qm57.html

        A CNBC must see Video

        http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1441430545&play=1

        Why you should consider selling some of your stocks

        It feels so good to own stocks right now... and that's usually not a good thing. Be careful out there. Never forget the only thing that determines your return is the price you pay. If you pay a high price, you'll get a low return. And most stock prices are high today. 


        Friday, March 19, 2010
        By Dan Ferris in the S&A Digest
        http://www.thedailycrux.com/content/4358/Dan_Ferris/eml

        New Study Reveals World's Greatest Investment Strategy


        New Study Reveals World's Greatest Investment Strategy

        By Dan Ferris 

        Thursday, February 18, 2010 



        It's official: Buying the cheapest assets you can find is where you make the biggest, safest, easiest money as an investor. 

        What made it "official" to me was a just-completed study by one of the greatest living investors. The investor is Jeremy Grantham. His firm Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo, manages over $100 billion. 


        Grantham recently published the results of a 10-year forecast he made for the period from December 31, 1999, to December 31, 2009. In 1999, Grantham predicted the rank and return for 11 different asset classes. The actual rankings wound up correlating 93% with Grantham's forecast.The probability of equaling or besting such a performance is about one in 550,000. 


        How did he do it? As he wrote in his latest investor letter, "We forecast [back in 1999] that the egregiously overpriced S&P would underperform cash and everything else – what should you expect starting at 33 times earnings? – and we assumed that emerging equities would do extremely well despite a 0.7 correlation with the S&P, because they were cheap." (Italics added.) 


        Grantham's forecasting feat confirms a thesis I've believed in for a long time: If you wait for asset prices to reach extremes of valuation, you have an excellent chance of outperforming most investors. It's difficult to wait for these extremes to come around, but it's crucial to your success as an investor. 

        Grantham's track record for spotting valuation extremes goes beyond a single 10-year period. He and his clients successfully avoided every bubble of the last two decades (Japan in the '80s, tech stocks in the '90s, financials and housing in the '00s). He was bearish at the top of the most recent bubble, in 2007, and super bullish at the bottom, in late 2008/early 2009. 

        Again, Grantham's secret is being bullish on cheap, unpopular assets and avoiding expensive, popular assets. 

        Today, Grantham says only the higher-quality large-cap stocks are attractive. I say the same and recommend World Dominator stocks like ExxonMobil, Microsoft, and Procter & Gamble. You can read more about this idea here and here


        As for the broader market, Grantham says the S&P 500's fair value is around 850, 20% below its current level. 


        Grantham expects seven years of "below-average GDP growth" and "more than our share of below-average profit margins and P/E ratios." Falling average price-to-earnings ratios are an important aspect of the sideways market I've been telling people about since November 2009. 

        Grantham's lessons are powerful and easy to understand. Avoid what's expensive. Buy what's cheap. 

        Stocks were incredibly popular in 1999, when Grantham made his prediction. They crashed three months later. Emerging markets were very cheap. They produced excellent returns. In both cases, extremes of valuation trumped all else.

        If you're buying and selling businesses without knowing how to value them, and how to spot extremes of valuation in them, you can't possibly hope to make a dime in the stock market. If you fancy yourself a "trend follower," be careful you don't follow your beloved trend straight off a cliff. 
        Grantham's forecasting success proves waiting for extremes of value to arrive makes long-term investing success much, much easier to achieve. 

        And while I normally don't pay a bit of attention to predictions, it's great to see such a common sense forecast prove the case for value investing once again. 
        Good investing, 


        Dan Ferris 


        http://www.dailywealth.com/427/New-Study-Reveals-World-s-Greatest-Investment-Strategy

        If You Buy When The Market Is Down, When Do You Sell?


        If You Buy When The Market Is Down, When Do You Sell?

        Yesterday, I discussed in detail my reasons for making a substantial stock buy even in the face of a 5% market drop in the last week. In response to that, Lazy Man made the following comment:
        I think it’s interesting that everyone always says to buy when others are selling, but while the Dow was enjoying new all-time highs for a couple of months, I didn’t hear everyone say “sell because others are buying.” Because you don’t hear that side of things, we are reduced to always buying.
        In theory, an individual should sell when the market is at the top, but it’s very difficult for an individual investor to clearly determine when the market is in fact at a top.
        So when should an individual investor sell? There are two reasons why an individual investor (who isn’t a professional institutional investor) should sell:
        The investment no longer makes you feel confident. If you regularly do homework in the investments you own, you’ll eventually begin to get a gut feeling about the investment. When this feeling is strongly positive, you buy, but when that positive feeling goes away, it’s time to sell.
        You need the cash (or something really safe). The only other time to sell is when you need your investment out of the market and in something less volatile. For us younger people, this would be cash; for people nearing retirement, this could be bonds, so you aren’t vulnerable to short-term corrections (like what just happened).
        In short, “sell because others are buying” is a great plan, but to actually use it, you have to be able to predict when the market is near the top, which is quite hard. It’s much easier to see that you’re getting a good buy when the market goes down than it is to see when the market is near a top so you can collect profits. The truth is that you should sell when you think the investment is getting weaker, regardless of the general market, and you should also sell when you need the money.
        On the other hand, you should not sell just because others are selling. Ignore what the sheep are doing. Look at the numbers and see if anything has really changed. Usually, the fundamentals (P/E, for example) will get better during a selloff, which is why it makes sense to buy something you like anyway during a downturn.


        http://www.thesimpledollar.com/2007/03/06/if-you-buy-when-the-market-is-down-when-do-you-sell/