Wednesday 5 May 2010

The euro also tumbled to a one-year low

The euro also tumbled to a one-year low as concerns about the sovereign debt crisis in Europe dominated the markets.




May 3, 2010
In Greek Debt Crisis, a Window to the German Psyche
By KATRIN BENNHOLD

PARIS — A few weeks after Lehman Brothers went bankrupt and the world plunged into a financial crisis, Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany offered some common-sense advice to reckless bankers, indebted consumers and profligate governments.

“One should simply have asked a Swabian housewife,” Mrs. Merkel said during an address to fellow Christian Democrats in December 2008 in the southwest German region of Swabia, hub of the Protestant work ethic. “She would have told us her worldly wisdom: in the long run, you can’t live beyond your means.”

Now, as Europe struggles to avoid its own Lehman experience — saving Greece and thus the euro — the episode says much about the Germans.

Led by France, European neighbors have been pressing for months for Germany, which has the Continent’s biggest economy, to throw its financial weight behind a bailout package and a new system of economic governance for the euro zone. In the process, a reluctant Berlin has been called irresponsible, selfish and even un-European.

But if France wants Germany to be more European, Germany wants Europe to be more Swabian. To bring Europe to a compromise required a deal between Mrs. Merkel and a Frenchman, Dominique Strauss-Kahn of the International Monetary Fund, who met in Berlin last week to pull Greece and the euro zone back from the brink.

The Greek episode has heated up the long culture clash between the European Union’s traditional drivers: federal Germany with its Prussian attachment to rules and an instinctive frugality rooted in past economic traumas, and republican France with its tradition of state intervention and a more Mediterranean attitude toward public debt.

Paris and Berlin have had many disagreements in the postwar world, but few are as deep-rooted as those on economic governance, said John C. Kornblum, a former United States ambassador to Germany.

“This comes from the gut, it’s emotional,” said Mr. Kornblum, who as assistant secretary of state for Europe in the 1990s watched successive French and German leaders spar over how to govern the future single currency.

If there is no political structure in place to safeguard the euro — a weakness exposed in the current debt crisis — Mr. Kornblum said it was because Germany and France could never agree on one. “There are profound philosophical differences between the two sides,” he said.

These differences are in many ways personified by Mrs. Merkel, daughter of a Lutheran pastor, and two flamboyant Frenchmen: President Nicolas Sarkozy, a conservative, and Mr. Strauss-Kahn, a Socialist.

Mr. Sarkozy and Mr. Strauss-Kahn are rivals and may even run against each other in the 2012 presidential election. But they share a belief in state intervention that unites most of the French political elite.

Mr. Sarkozy, a Gaullist whose millionaire friends and taste for expensive brands have not gone unnoticed across the Rhine, first roused German suspicions as finance minister in 2004 when he prevented a takeover by Siemens of Alstom, the French maker of trains.

As president, he allowed the budget deficit to rise above the 3 percent euro zone limit even before the economic crisis erupted, and he repeatedly criticized the European Central Bank’s interest rate policy.

Mr. Strauss-Kahn, a native of Alsace who speaks German, has been called “Mr. Euro” in France and is credited with steering his country into the euro zone as finance minister in 1997. In Germany, he is also remembered for serving under President Jacques Chirac, a staunch advocate of a political counterweight to the European Central Bank.

So when the two men independently revived calls for an “economic government” of the 16 countries that share the euro, resistance in Germany was instinctive.

In a country where many lost their savings twice in the 20th century — once to hyperinflation in 1923 and again to currency reform after World War II — central bank independence and budgetary discipline have become part of the German narrative.

Fear of inflation and broad-based aversion to debt also help to explain a striking divergence in the perception of Germany’s wealth at home and abroad. At 3.3 percent of gross domestic product, Germany’s budget deficit is low by crisis standards and frequently cited as a justification to appeal to Berlin for solidarity with poorer countries.

In contrast, the French budget deficit has widened to 7.5 percent of G.D.P. But Germans, who have absorbed East Germany and face a declining population, do not feel rich.

“Germans fear going bankrupt themselves,” said Mr. Kornblum, now a consultant in Berlin.

Jean-Pierre Jouyet, a former minister of European affairs who now leads the French stock market regulator, said: “The fundamental difference between France and Germany is that, for the French, budgetary, financial and currency stability is a means to an end. For the Germans it is an end in itself.”

Mrs. Merkel, a physicist raised in communist East Germany, has a hard-working, parsimonious lifestyle and an analytical, somewhat bland personality that in many ways reflect the national value system, said Gerd Langguth, author of a 2005 biography of her.

While Mr. Sarkozy resides in the majestic Élysée Palace and has an army of staff members, Mrs. Merkel still lives in the central Berlin apartment she occupied before her election in 2005 and has been seen doing her own shopping.

There are limits to national stereotyping. Mrs. Merkel’s more outgoing predecessor, Gerhard Schröder, made common cause with the French in breaking the euro zone’s budgetary limit.

And no German could have defended the legacy of the Bundesbank more vigorously than the president of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, referred to by some in Paris as “that Frenchman in Frankfurt.”

But understanding the radically different contexts in which German and French positions are honed is crucial as Europe’s two foremost powers grapple with the crisis, said Jean Pisani-Ferry, director of Bruegel, a research institute based in Brussels.

“Ultimately this is about whether Germany is ready to lead,” he said. “And leading means compromising, rather than only insisting on red lines.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/04/business/global/04iht-euro.html?src=me&ref=business

Wall Street Indexes Close Down More Than 2%





Tuesday 4 May 2010

Latexx more than doubles net profit to RM21m in 1Q

3.5.2010

KUALA LUMPUR: LATEXX PARTNERS BHD [] more than doubled its net profit to RM20.72 million for the first quarter ended March 31, 2010 (1QFY10) from RM9.14 million a year earlier on the back of capacity expansion, aggressive marketing strategy and overall cost savings.

Revenue surged 79.4% to RM126.17 million from RM70.32 million, while earnings per share rose to 10.52 sen from 4.7 sen. It declared a tax exempt interim dividend of 2.5 sen per share.

In notes accompanying the results on Monday, May 3, Latexx said at pre-tax level, its profit was 37.2% higher at RM23.25 million compared with RM16.95 million recorded in the preceding quarter.

It said despite the increase in raw material prices and the weakening US dollar, the increase in the group’s profit was due principally to increased sales volume and improved overall efficiency achieved giving rise to lower overheads, operational and supervision costs.

Latexx is confident that growth in FY10 will be sustained along with the world’s growing appetite for medical gloves in the health sector.

“The strategy of increasing capacity and switching to a better mix of products coupled with more aggressive marketing efforts by penetrating into new markets will contribute to sustainable profitability,” it said.

The company said an additional plant next to existing facilities had been completed and the commissioning of the remaining production lines was in progress. It expects to boost production capacity to nine billion pieces of gloves per year by 2011.

Latexx said following its joint-venture agreement (JVA) with Netherlands-based Budev BV, its unit Total Glove Company Sdn Bhd had entered into a licensing agreement with Budev for the exclusive right to use their TECHNOLOGY [] for the treatment of latex examination and surgical gloves to lower protein and allergen to non-detectable levels to prevent allergic reactions.

The JVA and licensing agreement would enable Latexx to embark on a new phase of technology and enhance its product range, and would also allow the group to reinforce its competitive edge in the global market through innovative production methods to produce high quality gloves for its customers, it said.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/165213-latexx-more-than-doubles-net-profit-to-rm21m-in-1q.html

Comment:  Will Latexx be able to achieve MR 100 million net profit for this financial year????

LPI Capital at record high after Kenanga initiates coverage with buy call

KUALA LUMPUR: LPI CAPITAL BHD [] surged Monday, May 3 after Kenanga Research initiated coverage on the stock with a buy recommendation at RM15.04 and target price RM16.80.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/165189-lpi-capital-at-record-high-after-kenanga-initiates-coverage-with-buy-call.html

A quick look at Hing Yiap (4.5.2010)

PROFILE BRIEF
The principal activities of the Company are those of property and investment holding, textile knitting and the manufacture of garments. The principal activities of the subsidiaries are Retailing and Distribution of the ANTIONI, B.U.M. EQUIPMENT, BONTTON, DIESEL and VANITY FAIR brand of ready-made sports and casual wear and related accessories; Operator of speciality stores known as BUMCITY; and Wholesaling of ready-made garments and fabrics.

Hing Yiap Group Berhad Company

Business Description:
Hing Yiap Group Berhad Formerly known as Hing Yiap Knitting Industries Berhad. The Group's principal activities are wholesaling, retailing and distributing ready-made sports and casual wear, women intimate apparel and related accessories. Other activities include textile knitting and manufacturing garments. It also operates as a property and an investment holding company. Operations are carried out in Malaysia.

Wright Quality Rating: LBC1 Rating Explanations
Stock Performance Chart for Hing Yiap Group Berhad





A quick look at Hing Yiap (4.5.2010)
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tsNT3xhHVKW3w4UCexYEeHw&output=html

Comment:
Will need to examine its past performances in depth.  During the recent global financial crisis, its earnings went down to almost nil in Q3 and Q4 of last financial year.  However, the earnings for the latest 2 quarters had been good.

Since this stock is outside my area of competence, will avoid being entangled with it.  However, will keep track of it.  There are other stocks with better quality and durable competitive advantage to invest in.

A quick look at KNM (4.5.2010)



A quick look at KNM (4.5.2010)
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tcCGJ_jnIm-UI-eucHCcPlA&output=html

KNM Group expects to perform better this year

4.5.2010


PROCESS equipment manufacturer KNM Group Bhd (7164)expects to perform better this year on lower tax rates and higher exploration and production activities.

"We recently spoke to the management of KNM following the breakdown of its proposed takeover offer. We believe that investors have overlooked the business aspect in the last few months after the takeover news first broke off back in February 2010," wrote HWANGDBS Vickers Research Sdn Bhd (HDBSVR) analyst Lee Wee Keat in a note to clients yesterday.

KNM's substantial shareholder and group managing director Lee Swee Eng had recently aborted his proposed offer via Bluefire Capital Group to buy KNM's entire business at RM0.90 per share.

Last year was a bad year for KNM as oil majors held back spending in view of low and volatile oil prices.


"We understand that KNM managed to secure only RM1.5 billion worth of jobs last year, and capacity utilisation was only 65 per cent compared with 80 per cent in 2008.

"(Profit) margins for the jobs secured were also slimmer as intense competition over the modest number of jobs available led competitors to cut prices," he said.


Lee expects margins for the next few quarters to remain sluggish as the company completes jobs secured last year. He estimated that the average completion ranges from 15 to 18 months per project.

"We gather that margins have improved since, but have yet to recover to previous levels."

Lee also said concerns over KNM's orderbook replenishment persists.

"KNM has a RM2.4 billion orderbook, with RM400 million of new contracts secured thus far. This is slow, but we foresee a rise in exploration and production activities in the second half of this year to trigger contract flows."

The group currently has a RM11 billion tender book comprising jobs mostly in the Middle East and Europe.

However, Lee has cut his new wins assumption for KNM to RM1.7 billion from RM1.8 billion previously for the financial year ended December 31 2010 (FY10), based on current tender book and historical hit rate of 15 per cent.

KNM's FY09 audited net profit stood at RM260.6 million after adjusting for the tax incentive, which was granted by the Finance Ministry on April 7 2010 to its subsidiary KNM Process Systems Sdn Bhd for the acquisition of Borsig.

Totalling RM1.4 billion, the tax incentive will apply for a period of four years from 2009.

"We expect a lower tax rate going forward as local operations will be spared from paying taxes. Also, there was no impairment charge for Borsig. Borsig contributed about 45 per cent of total FY09 earnings," said Lee.

The research firms has upgraded KNM to "hold" from "fully valued", but lowered its target price to RM0.60 from RM0.65.

"We expect some overhang in the share price given the EPF's recent heavy selling, but at the current price level, we believe that most of the negatives have been priced in. KNM has also started to buy back its shares.

"We believe KNM's strong RM571.7 million cash balance should support more buyback on share price weakness," said Lee.

Read more: KNM Group expects to perform better this year 

http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/03knm/Article/index_html#ixzz0mvpKFNdB

A quick look at Integrax (4.5.2010)

Integrax Berhad Company

Business Description:
Integrax Berhad. The Group's principal activities are owning and operating 2 port facilities, Lumut Maritime Terminal (port facility for dry and liquid bulk, break bulk and containers) and Lekir Bulk Terminal (port facility for dry and liquid bulk) comprising Lumut Port. Other activities include providing tuggage services, and extracting and smelting mineral ore. Operations are carried out in Malaysia.

Wright Quality Rating: LAD0 Rating Explanations
Stock Performance Chart for Integrax Berhad





A quick look at Integrax (4.5.2010)
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=t8WcTpUdhaSg_cm5MvKQYLQ&output=html

30/04/2010  
PROPOSED FINAL DIVIDEND
The Board of Directors of Integrax is pleased to recommend a final dividend of 3% less Malaysian income tax for the financial year ended 31 December 2009, subject to the approval of the Company's shareholders at the forthcoming Twenty-Fourth Annual General Meeting to be convened.

Monday 3 May 2010

A quick look at Genting Berhad (3.5.2010)

Genting Berhad Company

Business Description:
Genting Berhad. The Group's principal activities are operating hotel, gaming and entertainment, tours and travel related services. Other activities include generation and supply of electric power, oil palm plantations, palm oil milling, construction, property development and management, oil and gas exploration, sale of crude oil and investment holding. Operations of the Group are carried out in Malaysia, Asia Pacific, Europe and other countries.

Wright Quality Rating: ACD0 Rating Explanations
Stock Performance Chart for Genting Berhad





A quick look at Genting Berhad (3.5.2010)
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tn_N2jnN3rN857OjJ3soAyA&output=html

Warren Buffett's Investment Secret

Asked whether he has an investment secret, he says simply: "Pragmatism."

Warren Buffett's wonderful world of investing

A quick look at Daibochi (3.5.2010)

Daibochi Plastic and Packaging Industry Berhad

Business Description:
Daibochi Plastic and Packaging Industry Berhad. The Group's principal activity is manufacturing and printing flexible packaging materials. Other activity includes developing land into residential and commercial buildings. The Group principally operates in Malaysia.

Wright Quality Rating: LBC1 Rating Explanations
Stock Performance Chart for Daibochi Plastic and Packaging Industry Berhad





A quick look at Daibochi (3.5.2010)
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tiRMwQJfZ-5eKyfTy1bPXWw&output=html

Comment:
Not a great stock.
A gruesome stock.

A quick look at Latexx (3.5.2010)

Stock Performance Chart for Latexx Partners Berhad





A quick look at Latexx (3.5.2010)
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tECNeQDUY1U6NYZKZZlixQQ&output=html

Kenanga Research initiates coverage on LPI Capital with buy call



Kenanga Research initiates coverage on LPI Capital with buy call

Written by Kenanga Research
Monday, 03 May 2010 08:56


KUALA LUMPUR: Kenanga Research has initiated coverage on LPI CAPITAL BHD [] with a buy recommendation at RM15.04 and target price RM16.80, and said it favours LPI the most among general insurers in Malaysia due to its well-diversified business portfolio enabling the company to minimise its operating risks and generates the highest return on equity (RoE) to reward shareholders.

The research house said the auto insurance segment is expected to turn around in 2010-11 with the proposed increase in premium rates and the change of motor tariff structure, which is a re-rating catalyst.

"We have not factored in the potential tariff hike in this report, however, we estimate every 5% increase in net premium, could increase LPI's earning by 9%," it said.

The research house said LPI has multiple distribution channels including its own agency network and tapping into Public Bank's 250 branch networks.

"We believe its faster-than industry's organic gross premium growth rate of 15%-16% is achievable," it said.

Kenanga Research said historically, LPI's premium has grown at a CAGR of 15% for the last 10 years.

"We estimate LPI now trades at 12.7 times FY11 PER, offers 6.2% net dividend yield and we forecast RoE of 17.2%; which is better than most of the banking stocks.

"We believe its business model of growing revenues at the calculated risk should sustain its earning growth of 12%-14% over next two years and efficient capital structure do offer a solid dividend yield story to investors," it said.

The research house said LPI deserved a valuation premium given stronger growth, higher margin, low investment risk, better market position; whilst the downside is well cushioned by its 6.2% net dividend yield.


Related:

A quick look at LPI

A quick look at Genting Malaysia GENM (2.5.2010)

Genting Malaysia Berhad Company

Business Description:
Genting Malaysia Berhad Formerly known as Resorts World Berhad. The Group's principal activities are leisure and hospitality business which comprises hotel, gaming, cruise and cruise related operations, entertainment businesses, golf resorts, tours and travel related services and other support services. Other activities include property development and management provision of training, offshore financing, utilities and cable car management services, proprietary timeshare ownership scheme, selling and letting of apartment and investment holding. The Group operates in Malaysia and Asia Pacific.

Wright Quality Rating: AAA1 Rating Explanations
Stock Performance Chart for Genting Malaysia Berhad






A quick look at GENM (2.5.2010)
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tp5o0Wh0t3M0rC_NfN1I6Ag&output=html

Comment:
GENM is a great company by my criteria.  GENM earned MR 1.32 billion and paid 'miserable' dividend of MR 300 million last year.  It carries cash equivalent to MR 5.25 billion.  To date the management has not proven itself to be able to employ this cash productively in the new ventures they had undertaken in recent years.  Why not return this cash to the shareholders?  Let's look at what Buffett wrote on GREAT companies.



The Three Gs of Buffett: Great, Good and Gruesome


Here are some golden words from Buffett.


1.  On 'Great' businesses, Buffett says, "Long-term competitive advantage in a stable industry is what we seek in a business.

  • If that comes with rapid organic growth, great. 
  • But even without organic growth, such a business is rewarding. 
  • We will simply take the lush earnings of the business and use them to buy similar businesses elsewhere. 
  • There's no rule that you have to invest money where you've earned it. 
  • Indeed, it's often a mistake to do so: Truly great businesses, earning huge returns on tangible assets, can't for any extended period reinvest a large portion of their earnings internally at high rates of return."
----
OSK Research: Genting Malaysia to trade sideways
Written by OSK Research
Friday, 30 April 2010 10:07




KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research says Genting Malaysia’s shares, which were actively traded on Thursday, April 29, could continue trending sideways.


The research house said on Friday, April 30 that the stock has been trending sideways for many months and a trading range has been detected. It is ranging from the RM2.68 level to the RM3.00 level.


"That means the stock is expected to until one of these two levels is violated. In other words, yesterday’s active trading in the stock’s shares does not signal anything significant," it said.


OSK Research said the stock’s longer-term outlook will remain a sideways bias until it has violated one of these two critical levels.


Within the trading band, look for an immediate support at the RM2.75 level and an initial resistance at the RM2.88 level

From: The Edge Malaysia

Sunday 2 May 2010

A quick look at Proton (2.5.2010)

Proton Holdings Berhad Company

Business Description:
Proton Holdings Berhad. The Group's principal activities are manufacturing, assembling, trading and providing engineering and other services in respect of motor vehicles and related products. Its models include Waja, Gen.2, Perdana V6, Arena (Jumbuck), Saga range, Savvy, Satria Neo, Persona and Exora. It also offers Lotus sports cars models, such as Elise, Esprit, Exige, Europa and Evora. It is also involved in financial services and property management, as well as operating as an investment holding company. Operations are carried out in Malaysia and other countries, including Asean, China, Indian Subcontinent, the Middle East - North Africa, the United Kingdom/Western Europe, Australia and South Africa.


Wright Quality Rating: CANN Rating Explanations
Stock Performance Chart for Proton Holdings Berhad



A quick look at Proton (2.5.2010)
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tD9LN07eCpTS6nveY5Sgy4A&output=html

A quick look at F & N (2.5.2010)

Fraser & Neave Holdings Berhad Company

Business Description:
Fraser & Neave Holdings Berhad. The Group's principal activities are manufacturing and distributing soft drinks. Other activities include distributing dairy products, manufacturing and selling glass containers, property investment holding, property development and investment and investment holding. The Group operates in Malaysia, Vietnam, China, Singapore, Philippines, Middle East, Thailand and other countries.

Wright Quality Rating: DBB1 Rating Explanations
Stock Performance Chart for Fraser & Neave Holdings Berhad








A quick look at F & N (2.5.2010)
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tyqRmMbLVEXV80BN2RNGD-Q&output=html

A quick look at UMW (2.5.2010)

UMW Holdings Berhad Company

Business Description:
UMW Holdings Berhad. The Group's principal activities are the importing, assembling and marketing passenger and commercial vehicles and related spares and manufacturing original and replacement of automotive parts. Other activities include manufacturing and trading oil pipes and providing various oil and gas services including drilling and pipe coating, trading wide range of light and heavy equipment ,marketing of established agency lines, rebuilding and repair of heavy equipment and diesel engines, manufacturing engine, treading of tubings and casings and manufacturing of couplings for oil and gas industry, vehicle exhaust systems, kangaroo bars, filters and seats, manufacture and assembly of power steering pumps and shock absorbers, blending, packaging, marketing and distribution of lubricants and provision of support services, provision of information technology services, property development and investment holding. Operations of the Group are carried out in Malaysia and Overseas.

Wright Quality Rating: BBB1 Rating Explanations
Stock Performance Chart for UMW Holdings Berhad







A quick look at UMW (2.5.2010)
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tzdm-V8ZSvV8pv_fn-UQOlg&output=html

External auditors raise red flags at 6 companies

Several accounting firms have raised red flags at six companies yesterday, indicating they could not complete their audits properly.

The companies are Nam Fatt Corp Bhd, Patimas Computers Bhd, Mangotone Group Bhd, Wawasan TKH Holdings Bhd, Luster Industries Bhd and KBB Resources Bhd, based on their announcements to Bursa Malaysia.

Five of them had their accounts qualified, which means that auditors had incomplete information for their work or they may disagree with the company's management on certain assumptions.

However, Luster's auditors, which is Grant Thornton, did not qualify its opinion but pointed out to shareholders that the company's fate rests on an approval by Bursa Malaysia Bhd.

Financially-troubled Luster, a precision plastic parts maker, had submitted its revamp plan on September 18 2009, which was rejected by Bursa on February 11 2010. It appealed on March 4 but Bursa has yet to decide.

Construction group Nam Fatt is also in trouble after it defaulted on some loans and made an operational loss of some RM560 million in the year to December 31 2009.

It has to submit a revamp plan a year from March 15 2010 and it has yet to finalise such a plan.

Accountants from Deloitte & Touche could not find enough audit evidence for doubtful debt provisions while audited accounts of certain subsidiaries were not available.

In this instance, Deloitte said this is in breach of the Companies Act.

In the case of Wawasan TKH, a disposable food packaging maker, its auditors BDO did not agree with the assumptions of its management.

Management thinks that certain assets worth RM83 million should not be impaired, or that the value should not fall, because of assumptions on sales growth of up to 19 per cent and gross profit margins of up to 18 per cent.

"These assumptions by their very nature, are difficult to substantiate given past actual outcomes and are regarded as significant areas of uncertainties," BDO said.

As for Patimas, its auditors do not share the management's optimism that it could recover money from a former subsidiary.

Auditors of Mangotone, which is undergoing a restructuring, could not find enough evidence to support their work while those of KBB were not present during the counting of finished goods at warehouses.

The vermicelli maker did not arrange for the presence of its external auditors during the counting of products worth some RM27 million.

http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/redflag/Article/index_html

Related:

8 Signs Of A Doomed Stock

Saturday 1 May 2010

A quick look at Padini (1.5.2010)

Padini Holdings Berhad Company

Business Description:
Padini Holdings Berhad. The Group's principal activity is acting as dealers of garments, ladies' shoes and accessories. Its products are distributed under the brand names of Padini, Padini Authentics, PDI, P & Co, Seed, and Miki. Operations are carried out in Malaysia and Hong Kong. The Group distributes its products within the domestic market and to overseas markets, including the Middle East countries, other Asia Pacific countries and other countries.

Wright Quality Rating: DAA2 Rating Explanations
Stock Performance Chart for Padini Holdings Berhad









A quick look at Padini (1.5.2010)
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tWJgoo7xN96USdF9uQ0QAPA&output=html

A quick look at Nam Fatt - PN17 (1.5.2010)

Nam Fatt Corporation Berhad Company

Business Description:
Nam Fatt Corporation Berhad. The Group's principal activities are constructing bridges, heavy concrete foundations, roads, factory complexes and other similar construction activities. Other activities include building, maintaining and operating the Jiangjin Bridge on a built-operate-transfer basis, constructing projects in the oil, gas and petrochemical related industry, steel fabrication, structural steel engineering, manufacturing and trading steel doors and industrial boilers, researching, developing, producing, selling, installing and maintaining metal roofing and wall cladding, manufacturing galvanised iron roofing sheets, property development; owning and developing golf resort and its recreational amenities, property developer and property manager, resort and development, managing a golf resort and recreational clubs and investment holding. The Group operates in Malaysia, Africa and Asia.

Currency: Malaysian Ringgits
Market Cap: 28,763,370
Fiscal Yr Ends: December
Shares Outstanding: 319,593,000
Share Type: Ordinary
Closely Held Shares: 35,229,890 (11%)

16/03/2010
NAMFATT - New admission into PN17

Wright Quality Rating: LCNN Rating Explanations
Stock Performance Chart for Nam Fatt Corporation Berhad







A quick look at Nam Fatt - PN 17 (1.5.2010)
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tAskkNgs3uU8eyk_WrTFcSw&output=html

Some RED FLAGS (hindsight) in the accounts of Nam Fatt at end of 2008 to note are:

Share price 
RM 0.19  or market capitalisation of 34.16 m. (The price rose to RM 0.30 from March 2009 and dropped precipitously to RM 0.09 when the news of the company's financial problem was known.)

Income statement
Negative earnings -14.09 m
Interest expense -18.73 m

Cash flow statement
Negative CFO  -41.27 m
Neglible CFI
Negative FCF  -44.10 m
CFF  -34.11 m (Borrowings increased significantly)

Balance sheet
Total Debt 499.69 m
Account Payables' Days 206.58 days  (This then increased to 714.24 days in end of 2009)
Interest cover 0.66
Total Debt/Equity 0.82
Net Debt to EBITDA 26.64  (Ideally, this should be less than 5.  Bankers do not lend if this ratio exceed this figure.)

Of interest, these commonly used parameters DID NOT raise any red flags at end of 2008:

Equity 607.44 m (What is the actual value?!)
NAV 1.59
Current ratio 1.54
Quick ratio 1.51
Account Payables' Days 82.22 days (Though this subsequently ballooned to 307.08 days in end of 2009)
LTD/Equity 0.34
Dividend 2.08 m


Related article:

Measure long-term solvency and stability

Assessing indebtedness. How much debt is too much?

Acceptable debt

Liquidation value is the net realizable amount that could be generated by selling a company’s assets and discharging all its liabilities.

When valuing a business for liquidationmost assets are marked down and the liabilities treated at face value. 
  • Cash and securities are taken at face value.
  • Receivables require a small discount (perhaps 15 percent to 25 percent off).
  • Inventory a larger discount (perhaps 50 percent to 75 percent off).
  • Fixed assets at least as much as inventory.
  • Any goodwill should probably be ignored.
  • Most intangible assets and prepaid expenses should beignored.
The residual is the shareholders’ take.

This valuation method is useful for companies being dissolved.

Buffett (2000): Derivatives - Weapons of Mass Destruction


Buffett's letter for the year 2000 discussed his views on tendencies of certain CEOs to make lofty projections of their companies' future earnings potential and the risks associated with such projections. Let us now move on to accumulating wisdom from the letter for the year 2002*.

In his 2002 letter, the master has devoted a fair deal of time and space to the topic of derivatives. Infact, the master's prognosis on the risks associated with derivatives come so perilously close to describing the current US sub-prime crisis that one would be forgiven for assuming that Mr. Buffett has access to a crystal ball.

Derivatives: Devious or delightful?

Much like most of the other inventions, derivatives too, were created for the benefit of mankind in general and commerce and trade in particular. It was especially helpful to smaller firms that did not have the capacity to bear big risks. Derivatives enabled such firms to transfer some of these risks to stronger, more mature hands. But again, like most of the other inventions, derivatives can also be put to misuse. Abuse of the same, as has become more frequent these days, could lead to dire consequences. Furthermore, the very nature of a derivatives contract makes it risky to the users. This is because unless accompanied by collaterals or guarantees, the final value in a contract depends on the payment ability of the parties involved.

The master is also of the opinion that since a lot of derivatives contract don't expire for years and since they have to be provided for in a company's accounts, manipulation could become a serious threat. For e.g., incorporating overly optimistic projections into a contract that does not expire until say 2018 could lead to inflated earnings currently. However, if the projections fail to materialize, they could lead to potential losses in the future. In an era of short-term profit targets and incentives, such measures result in higher CEO salaries. But they hurt long-term shareholder value creation.

This is what the master has to say on the issue:

"Errors will usually be honest, reflecting only the human tendency to take an optimistic view of one's commitments. But the parties to derivatives also have enormous incentives to cheat in accounting for them. Those who trade derivatives are usually paid (in whole or part) on "earnings" calculated by mark-to-market accounting. But often there is no real market (think about our contract involving twins) and "mark-to-model" is utilized. This substitution can bring on large-scale mischief. As a general rule, contracts involving multiple reference items and distant settlement dates increase the opportunities for counterparties to use fanciful assumptions."

He further goes on to add "The two parties to the contract might well use differing models allowing both to show substantial profits for many years. In extreme cases, mark-to-model degenerates into what I would call mark-to-myth."

Highlighting other dangers of derivatives, the master finally goes on to say something that if central banks around the world, importantly the US Fed, would have paid proper heed to, it could have been probably able to avert or maybe minimize the enormous damage that is being caused by the US sub-prime crisis.

We conclude the article with the reproduction of that comment.

Weapons of mass destruction

The master says, "The derivatives genie is now well out of the bottle, and these instruments will almost certainly multiply in variety and number until some event makes their toxicity clear. Knowledge of how dangerous they are has already permeated the electricity and gas businesses, in which the eruption of major troubles caused the use of derivatives to diminish dramatically. Elsewhere, however, the derivatives business continues to expand unchecked. Central banks and governments have so far found no effective way to control, or even monitor, the risks posed by these contracts."

Buffett (2000): The risks associated with the twin issues of CEO's lofty projections and sustainable long-term profit growth.


Warren Buffett talked about wealth transfers to greedy promoters during IPOs in the letter for the year 2000. Let us go further down the same letter and see what other investment wisdom the master has to offer.

The master's macro bet

Usually, Buffett refrains from making precise comments about the future especially at the macro level. But if he is willing to bet a large sum on the likeliness of an event happening, then indeed we must sit up and take notice. In the letter for the year 2000, the master has made one such prediction and was willing to bet a large sum on it. The prediction was about the magnitude of growth in profits that would take place among the 200 most profitable companies in the US at that time. Since the master does not believe in short term predictions, the time horizon that was assumed was ten years.

The CEO with a crystal ball

The letter for the year 2000 came out at a time when the practice of a CEO predicting the growth rate of his company publicly was becoming commonplace. Although Buffett did not have an issue with a CEO setting internal goals and even making public some broad assumptions with proper warnings thrown in, it did annoy him when CEOs started making lofty assumptions about future profit growth.

This is because the likelihood of the CEO meeting his aggressive targets year after year on a consistent basis and well into the future was very low and hence this amounted to misleading the investors. After having spent decades researching and analyzing companies, the master had come to the conclusion that there are indeed a very small number of large businesses that could grow its per share earnings by 15% annually over a period of 10 years. Infact, as mentioned in the above paragraph, the master was even willing a bet a large sum on it.

The reasons may not be difficult to find. In free markets, the intensity of competition is so high that it is very difficult for profitable players to maintain high growth rates for consistently long periods of time. Unless the business is endowed with some extremely strong competitive advantages, competition is likely to nibble away at its market share and cut into its profit margins, thus making high growth rates difficult.

Let us hear in the master's own words his take on the twin issues of
  • CEO's lofty projections and 
  • sustainable long-term profit growth.

The golden words

"Charlie and I think it is both deceptive and dangerous for CEOs to predict growth rates for their companies. They are, of course, frequently egged on to do so by both analysts and their own investor relations departments. They should resist, however, because too often these predictions lead to trouble."

He further adds, "It's fine for a CEO to have his own internal goals and, in our view, it's even appropriate for the CEO to publicly express some hopes about the future, if these expectations are accompanied by sensible caveats. But for a major corporation to predict that its per-share earnings will grow over the long term at, say, 15% annually is to court trouble."

The master reasons, "That's true because a growth rate of that magnitude can only be maintained by a very small percentage of large businesses. Here's a test: Examine the record of, say, the 200 highest earning companies from 1970 or 1980 and tabulate how many have increased per-share earnings by 15% annually since those dates. You will find that only a handful have. I would wager you a very significant sum that fewer than 10 of the 200 most profitable companies in 2000 will attain 15% annual growth in earnings-per-share over the next 20 years."

Adding further, the master says, "The problem arising from lofty predictions is not just that they spread unwarranted optimism. Even more troublesome is the fact that they corrode CEO behavior. Over the years, Charlie and I have observed many instances in which CEOs engaged in uneconomic operating maneuvers so that they could meet earnings targets they had announced. Worse still, after exhausting all that operating acrobatics would do, they sometimes played a wide variety of accounting games to "make the numbers." These accounting shenanigans have a way of snowballing: Once a company moves earnings from one period to another, operating shortfalls that occur thereafter require it to engage in further accounting maneuvers that must be even more "heroic." These can turn fudging into fraud. (More money, it has been noted, has been stolen with the point of a pen than at the point of a gun.)"

Buffett (2000): IPOs usually result in transfer of wealth and that too on a massive scale from the ignorant shareholders to greedy promoters.


In Warren Buffett's letter for the year 2000, he talked about how investors, in their irrational exuberance, tend to gravitate more and more towards speculation rather than investment. Let us go further down the same letter and see what other investment wisdom he has to offer.

IPO – It’s Probably Overpriced

If it is out there in the corporate world, it has to be in the master's annual letters. Over the years, Mr. Buffett has done an excellent job of giving his own unique perspective of the happenings in the business world. Whatever be the flavour of the season, you can rest assured that it will be covered in the master's letters. Since the letter for the year 2000 was preceded by the famous 'dotcom bubble' and the flurry of IPOs associated with it, the master has spent a fair deal of time in trying to give his opinion on the same. And as with other gems from his larder of wisdom, strict adherence here too could do investors a world of good.

On IPOs, the master goes on to say that while he has no issues with the ones that create wealth for shareholders, unfortunately that was not the case with quite a few of them that hit the markets during the dotcom boom. Unlike trading in the stock markets, IPOs usually result in transfer of wealth and that too on a massive scale from the ignorant shareholders to greedy promoters. The master feels so because taking advantage of the good sentiments prevailing in the markets, a lot of owners put their company on the blocks not only at expensive valuations that leave little upside for shareholders but most of these companies end up destroying shareholder wealth.

Hence, while investing in IPOs, two things need to be closely tracked. 
  • One, the issue is not priced at exorbitant valuation and 
  • second, the company under consideration does have a good track record of creating shareholder wealth over a sustained period of time. 
Thus, if an IPO is only trying to sell you promises and nothing else, chances are that you are playing a small role in making the promoter, Mr. Money Bags.

Master's golden words

Let us hear in the master's own words his take on the issue. He says, "We readily acknowledge that there has been a huge amount of true value created in the past decade by new or young businesses, and that there is much more to come. But value is destroyed, not created, by any business that loses money over its lifetime, no matter how high its interim valuation may get."

He further adds, "What actually occurs in these cases is wealth transfer, often on a massive scale. By shamelessly merchandising birdless bushes, promoters have in recent years moved billions of dollars from the pockets of the public to their own purses (and to those of their friends and associates). The fact is that a bubble market has allowed the creation of bubble companies, entities designed more with an eye to making money off investors rather than for them. Too often, an IPO, not profits, was the primary goal of a company's promoters. At bottom, the ‘business model’ for these companies has been the old-fashioned chain letter, for which many fee-hungry investment bankers acted as eager postmen."

To conclude, the master says, "But a pin lies in wait for every bubble. And when the two eventually meet, a new wave of investors learns some very old lessons: 
  • First, many in Wall Street - a community in which quality control is not prized - will sell investors anything they will buy. 
  • Second, speculation is most dangerous when it looks easiest."

Buffett (2000): Discounted cash flow approach to valuations is the single most important tool in valuing assets of any kind. 'A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.'


Warren Buffett described his reluctance to invest in tech stocks and the key reasons behind the same (in his 1999 letter to shareholders). Let us move further to the next year and see what the master has to offer in terms of investment wisdom at the turn of the millennium i.e., in his letter from the year 2000.

Buffett's acquisition spree

The year 2000 was the year that could easily go down in Berkshire's history as the ‘year of acquisitions’. Sensing favorable market conditions, the master completed two transactions that were initiated in 1999 and bought another six businesses during 2000, taking the total to eight. This steady stream of acquisitions is perhaps what inspired him to once again bring his theory of valuations out from the closet and present it before his shareholders. However, while the underlying principles of his theory remained the same, it came cloaked in a different analogy.

What Aesop taught Buffett?

This time, the master has turned to Aesop for help and likens the process of performing valuations to his famous saying - 'a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush'. Without getting too much into details, suffice to say that the master reaffirms his faith in the discounted cash flow approach to valuations and believes it to be the single most important tool in valuing assets of any kind, right from stocks to as exotic assets as royalties and lottery tickets.

Let us read the master's own words on his thoughts -

"The formula we use for evaluating stocks and businesses is identical. Indeed, the formula for valuing all assets that are purchased for financial gain has been unchanged since it was first laid out by a very smart man in about 600 B.C. (though he wasn't smart enough to know it was 600 B.C.)."

"The oracle was Aesop and his enduring, though somewhat incomplete, investment insight was ‘a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush’. To flesh out this principle, you must answer only three questions. 
  • How certain are you that there are indeed birds in the bush? 
  • When will they emerge and how many will there be? 
  • What is the risk-free interest rate (which we consider to be the yield on long-term US bonds)? 

If you can answer these three questions, you will know the maximum value of the bush 3/4 and the maximum number of the birds you now possess that should be offered for it. And, of course, don't literally think birds. Think dollars."

"Aesop's investment axiom, thus expanded and converted into dollars, is immutable. It applies to outlays for farms, oil royalties, bonds, stocks, lottery tickets, and manufacturing plants. And neither the advent of the steam engine, the harnessing of electricity nor the creation of the automobile changed the formula one iota 3/4 nor will the Internet. Just insert the correct numbers, and you can rank the attractiveness of all possible uses of capital throughout the universe."