The age of the dollar is drawing to a close
Currency competition is the only way to fix the world economy, says Jeremy Warner.
By Jeremy Warner
Published: 7:04AM GMT 05 Nov 2010
Dollar hegemony was itself a major cause of both the imbalances and the crisis Photo: BLOOMBERG
Right from the start of the financial crisis, it was apparent that one of its biggest long-term casualties would be the mighty dollar, and with it, very possibly, American economic hegemony. The process would take time – possibly a decade or more – but the starting gun had been fired.
At next week's meeting in Seoul of the G20's leaders, there will be no last rites – this hopelessly unwieldy exercise in global government wouldn't recognise a corpse if stood before it in a coffin – but it seems clear that this tragedy is already approaching its denouement.
To understand why, you have to go back to the origins of the credit crunch, which lay in the giant trade and capital imbalances that have long ruled the world economy. Over the past 20 years, the globe has become divided in highly dangerous ways into surplus and deficit nations: those that produced a surplus of goods and savings, and those that borrowed the savings to buy the goods.
It's a strange, Alice in Wonderland world that sees one of the planet's richest economies borrowing from one of the poorest to pay for goods way beyond the reach of the people actually producing them. But that process, in effect, came to define the relationship between America and China. The resulting credit-fuelled glut in productive capacity was almost bound to end in a corrective global recession, even without the unsustainable real-estate bubble that the excess of savings also produced. And sure enough, that's exactly what happened.
When politicians see a problem, especially one on this scale, they feel obliged to regulate it. But so far, they've been unable to make headway. This is mainly because the surplus nations are jealous defenders of their essentially mercantilist economic models. Exporting to the deficit nations has served them well, and they are reluctant to change.
Ironically, one effect of the policies adopted to fight the downturn has been to reinforce the imbalances. Fiscal and monetary stimulus in the US is sucking in imports at near-record levels. The fresh dose of quantitative easing announced this week by the Federal Reserve will only turn up the heat further.
What can be done? China won't accept the currency appreciation that might, in time, reduce the imbalances, for that would undermine the competitiveness of its export industries. In any case, it probably wouldn't do the trick: surplus nations have a habit of maintaining competitiveness even in the face of an appreciating currency.
Unable to tackle the problem through currency reform, the US has turned instead to the idea of measures to limit the imbalances directly, through monitoring nations' current accounts. This has already gained some traction with the G20, which has agreed to assess the proposal ahead of the meeting in Seoul. As a way of defusing hot-headed calls in the US for the imposition of import tariffs, the idea is very much to be welcomed, as a trade war would be a disaster for all concerned. China, for one, has embraced the concept with evident relief.
Unfortunately, the limits as proposed would be highly unlikely to solve the underlying problem. Similar rules have failed hopelessly to maintain fiscal discipline in the eurozone. What chance for a global equivalent on trade? With or without sanctions, the limits would be manipulated to death. And even if they weren't, the proposed 4 per cent cap on surpluses and deficits would only marginally affect the worst offenders: for a big economy, a trade gap of 4 per cent of GDP is still a massive number, easily capable of creating unsafe flows of surplus savings.
No, globally imposed regulation, even if it could rise above lowest-common-denominator impotence, is unlikely to solve the problem, although it might possibly stop it getting significantly worse. But what would certainly fix things would be the dollar's demise as the global reserve currency of choice.
As we now know, dollar hegemony was itself a major cause of both the imbalances and the crisis, for it allowed more or less unbounded borrowing by the US from the rest of the world, at very favourable rates. As long as the US remained far and away the world's dominant economy, a global system based on the dollar still made some sense. But America has squandered this advantage on credit-fuelled spending; with the developing world expected to represent more than half of the global economy within five years, dollar hegemony no longer makes any sense.
The rest of the world is now openly questioning the merits of a global currency whose value is governed by America's perceived domestic needs, while the growth that once underpinned confidence in its ability to repay its debts has never looked more fragile.
Already, there are calls for alternatives. Unwilling to wait for one, the world's central banks are beginning to diversify their currency reserves. This, in turn, will eventually exert its own form of market discipline on the US, whose ability to soak the rest of the world by issuing ever more greenbacks will be correspondingly harmed.
These are seismic changes, of a type not seen for a generation or more. I hate to end with a cliché, but we do indeed live in interesting times.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeremy-warner/8111918/The-age-of-the-dollar-is-drawing-to-a-close.html
Cynics may say the conclusion is no surprise when you consider that this report was commissioned by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors(RICS). After all, you wouldn’t ask a barber if you needed a haircut, would you? Against that, the sums of money involved in buying a home make the argument for expert advice compelling. When you are about to sign a contractual commitment to spend several years’ gross earnings, why blind yourself to some of the risks involved and strip yourself of valuable insurance for the price of a week or two’s wages?
Many homebuyers have no idea how little they will get when they settle for a valuation report – or how much they might be able to knock off the asking price, particularly in a weak market where house prices are falling, when they are armed with a survey setting out the property’s faults and any work that needs to be done.
For example, RICS found that nearly six in 10 homebuyers wrongly imagined that a valuation report included an assessment of the
building’s condition, including searching for damp and structural movement. One in three mistakenly believed it included advice on legal issues that a solicitor should investigate.
building’s condition, including searching for damp and structural movement. One in three mistakenly believed it included advice on legal issues that a solicitor should investigate.
For important information like this, you have to pay for a building survey or – at bare minimum – a homebuyers’ report. Rosemary Rogers, a director of property experts reallymoving.com, explained: “As a general rule, a homebuyer’s report is usually sufficient for homes less than 50 years old and in a good state of repair. It uses a standard format and will include a valuation. A building survey, on the other hand, will be a more in-depth examination of a building’s structure and is recommended for older, dilapidated or extensively-altered properties.
“Neither need be expensive. In fact, the average cost of a survey has dropped by almost 25 per cent in the last 10 years, with a homebuyers’ report costing £342 on average or £423 for a building survey.”
That’s a small price to pay for valuable insurance – as Ed Mead, a director of estate agents Douglas & Gordon, points out: “The main
reason to get a survey is that if anything does go wrong, you have a comeback on the surveyor via their professional indemnity. Don’t go with a lender’s recommendation, always stay independent.”
reason to get a survey is that if anything does go wrong, you have a comeback on the surveyor via their professional indemnity. Don’t go with a lender’s recommendation, always stay independent.”
Giles Cook, a director of estate agents Chesterton Humberts, warns against false economies: “Having a property surveyed will help
prospective owners avoid nightmare situations that can rack up enormous costs in future.
prospective owners avoid nightmare situations that can rack up enormous costs in future.
“There are rarely instances where a homebuyers report might suffice, as – even if you are buying an apartment above ground floor level and below the top floor – you will be responsible for contributing to repairs to the outer fabric of the building. It’s essential to check that a sinking fund is in place for any apartment building, especially if the survey highlights repairs are needed
“Expect the worst from a survey, as it will always provide a critical report and find fault wherever possible; that is what surveyors are
paid to do. Many of the findings will be suggestions and will list repairs that are not necessarily urgent. However, homebuyers should always seek a second opinion where aspects of the report are worrying, one that corresponds with the problem it addresses, for example a damp specialist or electrician.”
Even bad news can be good news for purchasers who are well-informed before completion. RICS reckons three quarters of homebuyers who paid for a building survey were able to negotiate a lower price. Information is power when it comes to property – particularly in a buyers’ market when vendors are increasingly vulnerable to haggling.
paid to do. Many of the findings will be suggestions and will list repairs that are not necessarily urgent. However, homebuyers should always seek a second opinion where aspects of the report are worrying, one that corresponds with the problem it addresses, for example a damp specialist or electrician.”
Even bad news can be good news for purchasers who are well-informed before completion. RICS reckons three quarters of homebuyers who paid for a building survey were able to negotiate a lower price. Information is power when it comes to property – particularly in a buyers’ market when vendors are increasingly vulnerable to haggling.