Saturday 6 November 2010

Why are passive funds not more popular? The key to successful active investing – it is vital to monitor your portfolio. Yet many individual investors fail to do this.

Keep your investments on track


Funds that passively track the market are less popular than those with active managers, who try to beat the market. But some say they offer more certainty for lower charges. Which should you choose? Niki Chesworth investigates.


Investments advice image
Active approach: whether you choose a tracker or a managed fund, the key is to keep an eye on their performance
Warren Buffett, the investment guru, has said the best way for most investors to own common stocks is through an index fund that charges minimal fees, saying they will "beat the net results delivered by the great majority of investment professionals".
Tracker funds are not only a lower-cost way to invest — because they do not have the expense of paying a team of active fund managers — they offer the certainty of passively tracking a given stock market index. They therefore should not significantly underperform the market, something actively managed funds cannot guarantee.
So it may come as no surprise that the total amount invested in tracker funds managed by UK investment companies soared from £20bn in 2008 to nearly £28bn at the end of last year, according to the Investment Management Association (IMA).
But delve behind these figures and it's apparent this increase was not because these funds were increasingly popular with investors — merely a reaction that tracker funds track the market and the markets bounced back sharply.
Only 5.5pc of all funds under management are held in tracker funds according to the IMA but when it comes to sales, they are attracting just 2.5pc of individual investors' money.
With criticism in the media that investment charges are impacting on the performance of some actively managed funds – as well as reports that some active managers fail to match their benchmark index let alone beat it – why are passive funds not more popular?
"While trackers appeal to institutional investors such as pension funds and charities, which have long-term objectives and are in the main happy to accept market risk but at no more cost than is necessary, individual investors want their fund managers to deliver alpha, they want to beat the market," says Justine Fearns, research manager of independent advisers AWD Chase de Vere.
"Investors believe that if they pick the right active managers, they may be able to get that extra bit of performance."
Fearns also believes the poor sales of trackers is a reaction of the stock markets. She says: "Traditionally, trackers are used in more developed markets where news and information is readily available and it has been more difficult for active fund managers to consistently beat the market.
"In contrast, information is not always as free Ḁowing in underdeveloped markets, which creates more opportunity for active fund managers to beat the market.
"Similarly, in volatile and uncertain markets, like we have seen recently, individual assets can become mispriced, creating investment opportunity. This applies to both developed and underdeveloped markets and lends itself far more to an active stock-picking approach.
"If you know the market is going to perform strongly then you can get a good market return quite cheaply through a tracker. But when the markets start to come down, you will suffer the full effects of market falls with a tracker fund. So investors can tactically look to protect the downside with an actively managed fund."
Bearing the brunt of short-term falls in markets is one reason why those prepared to take a long-term view — institutional investors — may see the attraction of tracker funds better than individual investors.
Tracker funds have to blindly follow their given benchmark index which can cause sharp falls in the fund's value.
"This is the major drawback of tracker funds," says John Kelly of Chelsea Financial Services. "Even if the sector is overbought or likely to fall, the tracker has to buy it because it has to track the whole of the market."
Fearns says that low sales of tracker funds may also react investors' financial objectives.
"With interest rates low, many investors are looking for income from their portfolio and while a tracker will have an element of yield it will not match that paid by the best equity income and bond funds," she says.
The issue of tracker fund performance has also come under the spotlight. Some trackers buy shares in all the companies that make up the index they follow. Others use complex financial instruments to track that index. Although both types aim to track their benchmark, performance can still vary – and once charges are deducted there can be a consistent slight underperformance.
One recent survey found that while the FTSE All Company sector grew 372.50pc over the last 20 years, tracker funds showed just 330.9pc growth. However, much depends on which indices you compare — among the top 20 UK funds over the past five years is a mid-cap tracker which beat most of the 300 funds in the UK All funds sector.
However, the same claims of underperformance can also apply to actively managed funds – but with actively managed funds this can be far greater.
"There are some poorly performing active funds but if you do the research and get the right advice, you should consistently outperform the benchmark," adds Chelsea Financial Services' Kelly.
"However, with actively managed funds you do need to actively review them – ideally at least every quarter – as the funds you need to hold will change."
This is the key to successful active investing – it is vital to monitor your portfolio. Yet many individual investors fail to do this.
And performance also depends on what investors track.
Trackers are not confined to just the UK. It is possible to track global technology stocks, the global health and pharmaceuticals index and the major markets around the world — from Japan to the US and Europe — gaining access to sectors and geographical diversity for less than an actively managed fund and without the risk of buying the "wrong" fund that underperforms the benchmark.
So which is best?
"There is a place for both types of investment style – a tracker could provide long-term capital growth, but active managers may be able to outperform the market," says Fearns. "It's about balance — a balance of investments, risks and management styles."
However, investors who are passive about monitoring and reviewing their active funds may be better off with passive investments. John Kelly sums up the problem: "Inertia is the biggest destroyer of returns."
Written by Telegraph.co.uk as part of Smart Investment Month in association with Legal & General Investments

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sponsored/finance/smart-investment-guide/8101976/Keep-your-investments-on-track.html?utm_source=tmg&utm_medium=TD_8101976&utm_campaign=lg0611

I told you so: why shares beat bonds and deposits

I told you so: why shares beat bonds and deposits

By Ian Cowie Your Money
Last updated: November 5th, 2010

Perennial pessimism is the easiest way to simulate wisdom about stock markets – but it ain’t necessarily the way to make money. As the FTSE 100 hits a two-and-a-half-year high, this might be a good time to remind the smart Alecs that you have to be in it to win it.

Sulphurous cynicism is the usual response whenever anyone points out that shares yielding more than bonds or deposits might represent reasonable value – as you can see from the responses to my most recent blog on this theme. But, as regular readers will know, despite a dismal decade for the Footsie, I have long held the view that shares and share-based funds should make up the majority of any medium to long term investment strategy.

For example, here’s what I wrote in this space in August, 2009: “After all the worldly-wise men’s warnings of a double-dip recession, it should be no surprise to see the FTSE 100 soar by 40pc above its low-point this year.

“If anything, the continued consensus among most market observers that this remarkable rally has “gone too far, too fast” should boost our hopes the index will breach 5,000 soon.

“One reason all this may come as a surprise to many is that most TV coverage of the market is based on the principle that bad news is good news and good news is no news at all. “Bong! Billions wiped on shares!” Doesn’t sound familiar, does it?

“But the fact remains that investors in blue-chip shares have enjoyed the best summer in a quarter of a century. Some smaller companies shares and emerging markets did even better. That’s another fact you won’t hear from the doom and gloom crew.

“This should remind us that the reason shares provided higher returns than bonds or deposits over three quarters of all the five-year periods during the last century is that economies tend to grow over time and shareholders own the companies that create this wealth.

“So, medium- to long-term savers – like those of us saving toward paying off the mortgage or funding retirement – need not worry too much if share prices fall next month. That might be a problem for fund managers, who must answer to a board of directors every few weeks, and an opportunity for the rest of us.

“Finally, it is worth considering the personal anxiety of many professionals who are now “short of the market” or holding cash rather than shares. They can only afford to sit and watch prices rise for so long before they feel compelled to join the fun and keep their jobs.”

Shares are not as cheap as they were when I wrote those words but returns on bonds and deposits remain dismal. The agony of the worldly-wisemen and perennial pessimists sitting in cash or fixed interest, earning next to nothing, may only be just beginning.


http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ianmcowie/100008501/i-told-you-so-why-shares-beat-bonds-and-deposits/

Buffett built Berkshire through four decades of stock picks and takeovers.

Buffett built Berkshire into a $US200 billion company through four decades of stock picks and takeovers. The billionaire, also Berkshire's chairman and biggest investor, oversees the CEOs of more than 70 units including car insurer Geico, power producer MidAmerican Energy Holdings and Dairy Queen. In February, Buffett bought Burlington Northern Santa Fe, the second-biggest US railroad by 2009 revenue, for $US27 billion.

Berkshire hired hedge-fund manager Todd Combs last month to help with investments as Buffett, the company's chief executive officer, prepares the firm for his eventual departure. Buffett, who manages stock and bond holdings as well as derivatives, hired Combs ``to handle a significant portion'' of Berkshire's investments, the company said on Oct. 25.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/berkshire-profit-buffeted-20101106-17hvf.html

Warning! Gold Could Drop Below $500


By Alex Dumortier | More Articles 



Gold has performed very strongly over the past decade, trouncing equities and bonds in the process and handing investors who own the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) or the iShares Gold Trust (NYSE: IAU) handsome gains. Amid a heated debate about whether gold is in a bubble, it's worth taking a historical view to examine the risk investors are taking by paying more than $1,300 for an ounce of gold.
Gold's real return: zeroIn fact, gold appears to have eked out a small positive real return over time. Using data from the World Gold Council and precious metal dealer Kitco, I was able to construct a series of inflation-adjusted gold prices going back to 1851, according to which gold generated a historical average return of 0.7% per annum. However, even that small positive real return is a bit of a mirage resulting from the powerful gold rally we've witnessed. Indeed, as recently as 2005, gold's average real return over 154 years was zero, period.
That shouldn't be surprising: There is no reason to expect that an inert asset that produces no cash flows and has few industrial applications to accrete value. By stating that gold has returned nothing, I'm not disparaging the yellow metal; rather, it shows that the precious metalhas acted as a store of value -- over the very long term (for practical purposes, however, gold's price volatility makes it unsuitable as a store of value). That's consistent with the notion that it is an alternative currency that no government can debase.
Still, this alternative currency could be in for a big devaluation. To see why, look at the following graph of 10-year trailing real returns for gold since 1861 (based on average annual gold prices):


Sources: World Gold Council, Kitco.
Recent gains could reverseThere are two important observations to make:
  1. Gold returns are mean-reverting: The alternating peaks and valleys in the graph illustrate the fact that periods of higher-than-average returns tend to usher in periods of lower-than-average returns, and vice-versa. That's not surprising since this property shows up across different asset classes, including stocks.
  2. Investors who have owned gold over the past 10 years have earned a real return that is far in excess of the historical average. In fact, there is only prior period that witnessed higher returns: the bull market in gold that culminated in January 1980. Judging by gold's performance over the next two decades, that top capped off an enormous bubble.
Putting one and two together suggests gold returns going forward will be lower than the ones we have become accustomed to during the past decade. Just how severe could a reversal be? Let's take a look at the current price of gold in context. The following chart shows the average annual price of gold expressed in constant 2010 dollars (i.e., inflation-adjusted):




Sources: World Gold Council, Kitco.
Gold could fall by two-thirds!Gold is galloping ahead of its historical average (the red line)! In fact, the price of gold would need to fall by almost two-thirds to get back to its long-term average of $456/ ounce, not to mention that markets typically overshoot. That's a sobering thought if you have a significant position in gold.
Don't let the gold hucksters fool youGold is inherently a speculative asset. Despite what I wrote above, I do believe that it represents an attractive, but high-risk, speculation, as the current supply demand dynamicslook compelling. However, I can't rule out that things will turn out differently than I expect them to. If the economic recovery stabilizes and high inflation doesn't materialize, gold could decline significantly from its current level.
Let me emphasize that point: At these prices gold is no safe haven; it's an active bet on a specific scenario for the U.S. economy. Super-investor John Paulson owns gold because he believes the U.S. will experience double-digit inflation, but if that doesn't pan out, the bet could prove costly. Major gold miners that have closed out their hedges, including AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE: AU)Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX) and Gold Fields (NYSE: GFI) would share in the pain.
Gold is now a bubbleI have been bullish on gold ever since I began looking at this market in February 2009, and I have argued against the idea that this is a bubble. As I review my thesis, I now believe it's likely that we are in bubble territory; nevertheless, I remain bullish because the conditions are in place for this bubble to continue expanding. Investors who wish to speculate on this can do so via the two ETFs I mentioned in the opening paragraph or through the following vehicles:Sprott Physical Gold Trust (NYSE: PHYS), the Central Gold Trust or the Central Fund of Canada (AMEX: CEF).



http://www.fool.com/investing/etf/2010/11/02/warning-gold-could-drop-below-500.aspx

Why You Shouldn't Invest in American Stocks

By Tim Hanson and Brian Richards
November 5, 2010

Before you get any ideas, let it be known that we love the NCAA tournament, Oreo cookies, and Saving Private Ryan. But when flipping through an issue of Fortune, an astoundingly hammy ad made me (Brian) stop cold.

In big, bold letters, it read: "When you invest in America, you're really just investing in yourself."

The ad is for the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE: DIA), and we have nothing against that exchange-traded fund per se -- it has low expenses and does what it says it will, tracking the 30 stocks in the Dow.

The ad, though, sells an investment in a way that undermines the investor -- by pandering to patriotic emotions. Here's more of the text:

There's an unspoken agreement in America that each generation should leave this country in better shape than they found it. Maybe that's why the U.S. economy has been growing since the Industrial Revolution. Everyone tries to do their part. If you believe this covenant still exists today, consider the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF. [emphasis ours]
A touch melodramatic, eh?

We'll cut straight to why you shouldn't invest in American stocks: Because you are patriotic and sentimental about America. Kudos if you are those things -- just don't invest for those reasons.

Losing money is not patriotic
Consider, for example, Ford (NYSE: F) and Toyota (NYSE: TM). Are you more patriotic if you owned Ford over the past decade? No, you're just poorer (though both have lost money for investors, given how difficult it is to compete in the cyclical auto industry).

And while you might have thought it would help Ford out to purchase its stock when it was imploding in 2009, the fact is, when you buy a stock in the stock market, that money does not go to the company. Instead, it goes to a person who bought the stock from some other person.

So rather than bail out Ford, you were actually bailing out the person who bought Ford before you. That said, Ford has turned out to be a great investment since 2009, thanks to its return to profitability under Alan Mulally -- for reasons that have nothing to with patriotism.

The point is, companies only raise money during offerings. If you're buying or selling stock on the open market during a regular trading day, it generally will have no effect on the operations of the underlying company.

And even when it comes to offerings, you shouldn't buy shares of a company because you think it needs help, or because it might be patriotic to do so -- as the marketing surrounding the inevitable GM IPO will almost certainly imply. Most companies, when push comes to shove, won't return that thoughtfulness to their shareholders.

There's a larger lesson here
Patriotism, however, is only one of the ways that you might get suckered into making a poor investment decision. Others include buying into a rising stock for fear of missing out on gains (as so many did during the tech bubble), or selling a stock that's dropping solely because you're afraid it might go lower. Or as The Wall Street Journal explained recently:

Everyone develops attachments that can be irrational sometimes, whether to a house, a car, even a person. People can also get overly attached to a particular investment, believing it will reach -- or return to -- a certain price. Or they may place too much importance on one piece of information when making an investment decision. These are examples of anchoring bias, which causes the investor to hold on to the asset for longer than they should.

So there's a large lesson here, and it's this: An emotional investment is bad investment.

Don't believe us? Thankfully, there's now an entire field -- behavioral finance -- devoted to studying the ways in which our investing hearts get the best of our investing minds (actually most emotion happens in the brain as well, but stay with us).

Rather than rehash it all, we'll quote a Stanford study sums it up unequivocally: "Emotions can get in the way of making prudent financial decisions." We also recommend you read the fabulous Jason Zweig book, Your Money & Your Brain.

But back to America
Frankly, we think it's irresponsible for an ad agency to pull your patriotic heartstrings to make you want to buy an investment product that tracks the Dow 30. Not only is it intellectually strange -- assuming your dollars do go to support the business you buy, wouldn't it be more patriotic to buy shares of a collection of American small business, rather than 30 massive multinationals? -- it's just flat-out inane. A sense of civic duty is no reason to buy a stock or ETF, period.

Yet none other than investing icon Warren Buffett went to the exact same well when, during the peak of the financial crisis, he published his now-famous New York Times op/ed titled "Buy American. I Am."

To be fair, editorial page editors often pick the titles of editorial page editorials, so Buffett may not have been responsible for that slightly over-the-top headline (though who are we to criticize for an over-the-top headline?). Furthermore, the headline isn't even consistent with what Buffett's actually been buying at his investment vehicle, Berkshire Hathaway.

The holding company now owns stakes in China's BYD, the U.K.'s GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK), Switzerland's Nestle, and France's -- yes, France's -- Sanofi-Aventis (NYSE: SNY). What's more, Berkshire owns sizable stakes in ostensibly American companies such as Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) that have investment and growth abroad -- key parts of their business strategies going forward.

No, Buffett is not a hypocrite
This is all very smart -- both for the companies and for Buffett. Emerging markets are growing faster than the U.S. and have less ominous debt profiles. The dollar is weakening relative to those currencies. It makes sense to have a healthy dose of foreign exposure today! In fact, we'll go so far as to predict that if you buy foreign stocks, you'll earn better investment returns and end up paying more in capital gains taxes -- money that will actually go to prop up America (if that's the sort of thing you're looking to do).

All told, the takeaway from Buffett's editorial was not "Buy American," but rather found farther down in the copy: "A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors." Sometimes, that means Buy American, and other times it means Buy Abroad. But all the time, it means that you should make smart, unemotional decisions with your investment capital.



http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2010/11/05/why-you-shouldnt-invest-in-american-stocks.aspx

Friday 5 November 2010

Higher LTV ratio to have drastic impact on mortgage loans demand


Posted on 

November 5, 2010, Friday
KUCHING: The banking industry is expected to face a drastic impact on mortgages loans demand following the announcement of the higher loan-to-value (LTV) ratio for financing third properties and onwards.
According to OSK Research Sdn Bhd (OSK Research), the higher LTV ratio on financing the third property and onwards was aimed at curbing the degree of speculation currently being experienced by industries.
However, banks, via the Central Credit Reference Information System (CCRIS), would be able to detect if a borrower was driven by speculative intention, especially if he/she had purchased multiple properties within a short time span.
In such cases, OSK Research said that banks with proper risk management would have already pre-empted such risks by lowering the LTV for those financing facilities.
The research house stated that property purchasers might also be able to circumvent the new ruling by purchasing property under their children or spouses’ names while acting as guarantors to the loan.
It further added that property developers could raise prices while providing rebates to partially blunt the impact of the higher LTV ratios.
The research house observed the strong loans growth in the property segment coupled with a surge in working capital loans over the past five months had elevated year-to-date (YTD) annualised loans growth to a much stronger 11.8 per cent compared with the research house’s market estimates of nine per cent to 11 per cent.
As such, even with the assumption that residential property loans growth moderated by 50 per cent due to Bank Negara Malaysia’s (BNM) more stringent credit lending restrictions, the research house could still see total industry loans growth coming in at 10 per cent to 10.5 per cent, which was at the upper end of market estimates.
The research house highlighted that loans for residential properties contributed to 25 per cent to 30 per cent of total industry loans growth over the past six months, but the strong recovery in working capital and non-residential property loans grew significantly over the past three months, contributing to 16 per cent to 23 per cent of total industry loans growth, compared with six per cent at the beginning of 2010.

KNM settles termination of oil sands project with Fort Hills


November 5, 2010, Friday


KUCHING: KNM Group Bhd’s (KNM) subsidiary, KNM Process Equipment Inc (KNMPE) executed a settlement and release agreement and a right of consideration agreement with Fort Hills Energy LP (Fort Hills) and Suncor Energy Inc (Suncor) to terminate an oil sands project for the Fort Hills Froth Treatment (FHFT) project in Canada.

CONTRACT SETTLEMENT: KNMPE has executed a settlement and release agreement and a right of consideration agreement with Fort Hills and Suncor to terminate an oil sands project for the FHFT in Canada.
According to OSK Research Sdn Bhd (OSK Research), Fort Hills would pay RM9.3 million to KNMPE in addition to the progress payment previously paid as full and final compensation for the termination of the contract.
KNM had excluded all of the oil sand orders from its overall order book. Its existing order book of more than RM1.5 billion should be able to keep the company busy for the next nine to 12 months which did not include any more oil sand projects.
In consideration of the mutual agreement, Suncor (as partner of Fort Hills) would also pay KNMPE the first consideration for performance of identified products for five years from the date of the agreement.
Despite this contract termination, OSK Research noted that KNM’s tenderbook was now worth more than RM10 billion which was reflective of the recovery in the global economy.
In a separate report, AmResearch Sdn Bhd (AmResearch) remained cautious of KNM’s target of securing new orders of RM2 billion for the financial year 2010 forecast (FY10F) as the group’s quarterly replenishment had struggled to reach RM500 million since its completion of its Borsig acquisition back in 2008.
In particular, the group had only secured RM1 billion in new orders for FY10F to date with a target to secure another RM1 billion by year-end.
Based on this, AmResearch pointed out that KNM’s plant utilisation rate was likely to remain just above its operating breakeven level of 60 per cent.
To conclude, OSK Research pegged the group’s target price at RM0.56 per share while AmResearch pegged the group’s target price at RM0.42 per share.

Buffettology


Everything you need to know about Warren Buffett

http://monsterhash.com/beta/2009/exclusives/money/everything-you-need-to-know-about-warren-buffett/


Buffetology Workbook by Mary Buffet and David Clark

http://share.sweska.net/2007/08/23/buffetology-workbook-by-mary-buffet-and-david-clark/


Philip Fisher: Warren Buffett’s lesser-known mentor

http://monsterhash.com/beta/2009/exclusives/money/philip-fisher-warren-buffets-lesser-known-mentor/

Steady investments can beat the market by a mile

4 NOV, 2010, 01.31AM IST,
AMAR PANDIT,

Steady investments can beat the market by a mile

Guessing the index seems to be like an exciting pastime for most investors. They look at the index as some sacrosanct indicator to decide whether they should buy a stock.

“Sensex is back to 20000 and I feel something wrong is going to happen again,” said one learned acquaintance. “The markets are overvalued and I will invest when it corrects,” said another gentleman who did not even invest when the market was at 8000, thinking it will go down to 6000.

I asked many people who have been investing since 2005, “Do you remember the index levels in the year 2005?” Almost everyone replied in the negative. In 2005, the Sensex was between 6103 and 9397. I remember in 2005 a lot of people called even 6600 as a high level. One client had even said, “Let’s wait till 5000.” But guess what: he does not even recall the 2005 level remotely. This is because people have made fantastic returns over five years and it’s no longer important whether you invested at 6500 or 7000 or at 7500.

Here is why index levels should not be a real determinant of your investing decision: A difference between the lowest level every year and a fixed level every year over a long time frame does not matter at all.

Consider three different scenarios of index: 8000 in 2009, 13500+ in June 2009 and 18000 levels in August 2010.


  1. Let’s say you started investing in 1991, when liberalisation in India started. If you managed the feat of investing at the lowest level every year since 1991, your annual returns would have been 15.88% CAGR as of June 1, 2009 at 13500+ levels. 
  2. On the other hand, if you invested at the highest level every year, your returns would have been 11.78% CAGR. 
  3. Now, if you had invested on a fixed date every year, let’s say, January 1, then your returns would have been a surprisingly 15.77%. 
  4. The difference between a fixed date and the lowest date is just 0.11% pa.


Since 1991, the CAGR as on March 9, 2009,

  • for annual investments made at the highest Sensex levels was 8.21%, 
  • while it was 12.18% when the investments were made at the lowest levels. 
  • For investments made on January 1 every year, it was 12.08%.


Similarly, since 1980, the CAGR as in August, 2010,

  • for annual investments made at the highest Sensex levels was 16.19%, 
  • while it was 17.60% when the investments were made at the lowest levels. 
  • For investments made on January 1 every year, it was 16.91%.


Think for a moment. Does the paltry difference in returns between the lowest levels and regular investments really matter to you? For most equity investors, the answer will be a resounding no.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/personal-finance/savings-centre/analysis/Steady-investments-can-beat-the-market-by-a-mile/articleshow/6868486.cms