Tuesday 21 December 2010

The path to achievable growth


Martin Roth
December 1, 2010

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    In a rocky market environment, with the economic outlook also far from clear, one way to boost a portfolio is to seek out growth stocks - those dynamic companies that continue to expand year after year.
    These can offer the astute investor both a steadily appreciating share price and a rising dividend payout.
    However, they also come with greater risk than other stocks, often including high price-earnings ratios and significant share-price volatility.
    Typically, a growth stock operates within a thriving industry and occupies a strong and expanding market share position within that industry, allowing it to boost profits on a sustainable basis.
    Its particular strength might be its technology, or its ability to bring out a steady stream of innovative new products, or simply a business model that is superior to that of rivals.
    Dynamic management is often another notable characteristic.
    A classic example is the bionic-ear implant manufacturer Cochlear, which holds about two-thirds of the global market for its products with high profit margins. A continuing stream of new, high-tech models keeps it at the forefront of its industry.
    Between 2004 and 2010 its earnings per share figure tripled and a glance at its long-term share-price chart shows that from about $22 in early 2004, the shares soared to nearly $80 in late 2007, before retreating when the global financial crisis hit.
    Simon Robinson, a senior private wealth manager at Wilson HTM, which manages the Wilson HTM Priority Growth Fund, cites another example - electronics retailer JB Hi-Fi.
    ''Now that they have established their business model effectively, they are able to gain significant leverage as they continue to roll out new stores,'' he says. ''Then, as sales volumes increase, they get more buying power and more value for their advertising dollar.
    ''That allows them to become more efficient than competitors and they pass on these efficiencies to their customers, which makes them even more competitive. It is a virtuous circle.''
    However, Robinson notes that a particular danger of growth stocks is that the market might project into the share price significant levels of growth, above what is actually achievable. This can lead to a high share price, followed by a sharp sell-off once investors realise that growth will not meet expectations.
    ''Growth stocks are sometimes significantly underpriced and sometimes they are significantly overpriced,'' he says. ''It is important for investors to understand the components of that growth, including the industry in which the company operates and the competitive dynamic there.''
    In fact, he advises investors that their best strategy is to analyse companies carefully in order to spot potential growth stocks while they are still on relatively low price-earnings ratios and have not generally been recognised by the market.
    For investors interested in this theme, another issue recently has come to the fore - claims that Australia now has far fewer growth stocks than previously.
    ''If you went back five years or so there were a lot of pretty sexy growth stories,'' says an equity strategist at Merrill Lynch, Tim Rocks. ''In healthcare there were companies like Cochlear and [vaccine and blood products corporation] CSL and in other industries you had a range of companies that still had good growth in front of them, such as JB Hi-Fi.
    ''[Surfwear specialist] Billabong International was another example.
    ''Even [merchant bank] Macquarie at that time, you would say, was a growth company. It was expanding offshore and as many as a dozen more large companies were out there, with very interesting long-term growth profiles.
    ''That appears to us to be no longer the case. Many of those companies are now well advanced in their strategies, so their periods of very high growth are behind them.
    ''And, more interestingly, the next generation has not really appeared to step up. So we struggle to find a big list of companies with that genuine sustainable growth in front of them.''
    He notes that much growth in the Australian market comes from the resources sector but the relevant stocks tend to be volatile and too China-dependent to be classic growth stocks.
    However, Robinson says, there are always growth stocks ''but the trick is finding them''.
    The institutional business director at Hyperion Asset Management, Tim Samway, rates four internet companies - Seek, Wotif.com Holdings, REA Group and Carsales.com. ''They have very high returns on equity, low debt and steady organic earnings growth,'' he says.in

    The art of picking gems

    Martin Roth







    December 15, 2010
      Examine a particular company in the context of the wider economy when selecting stocks.
      A reasonably firm domestic economy and improving conditions overseas have led many analysts to forecast that next year will be a good one for the sharemarket.
      Nevertheless, the ride for investors could be rocky.
      In particular, we appear to be developing what some are terming a two-speed economy. While the mining and energy industries boom, other sectors are mixed, with growing concerns about a slowdown in consumer spending and about the impact of the dollar's strength.
      The result is that stock selection - always a significant consideration for serious investors - becomes more important than before.
      What are the key ingredients of successful stock picking?
      Talk to any group of experts and you will find they offer many varying methods. It is sometimes said that investing is not a science but an art.
      Here are four considerations:
      UNDERSTAND THE ECONOMY
      For many professionals, the stock-selection process begins with a top-down examination of economic trends. "I like to see where I think the economy is going, both here and overseas," says a senior client adviser and strategist at Austock Securities, Michael Heffernan.
      "That sets the canvas, or the foundation, on which I make my selections. Whether I expect the economy to do well or badly will influence which stocks I choose."
      SEARCH FOR VALUE
      Learn the fundamentals of the company in which you wish to invest. This is certainly the most important consideration for any investment decision and, while it may sound obvious, it is clear many investors have only a cursory understanding of the companies whose shares they buy.
      "You need to do some legwork," says an equity analyst with the Fat Prophets market information company, Greg Fraser. "You need to know about the company, its industry and its competitors. You should understand its products or services."
      This can all be seen as the qualitative side of the company. It is also important to look at the quantitative side - its financial statements. "Look at the earnings of the company, not just for this year but in a trend over time," he says. "You also need to understand the balance sheet and the cash flow statement. These can give you a feel for how highly geared the business is, its exposure to interest rates, whether it is sufficiently capitalised or not and so on.
      "And once you put those things together, you then need to try and work out whether you think the company's shares are currently trading above or below what you think is a fair value."
      The chief executive officer of the funds management and market data company Lincoln Indicators, Elio D'Amato, urges investors to pick stocks that are exhibiting dynamic growth.
      "There are not many truisms in the sharemarket," he says. "But there is at least one - if earnings grow over the long term, the share price will follow."
      This month his company released a shortlist of stocks it believes could outperform in 2011, including debt-collection agency Credit Corp Group, equipment rental finance specialist Silver Chef, engineering company Forge Group, retailer Thorn Group and internet service provider iiNet.
      SPECIALISE
      Select several areas of the market and develop an in-depth knowledge of these.
      Controversial British businessman Jim Slater wrote a book on this theme, titled The Zulu Principle, after realising that his wife, with just a little reading, was becoming an expert in Zulus.
      He advises investors to specialise in a narrow area of the market and to become an authority. He says doing this will allow recognition of small, dynamic growth stocks before most others.
      RESPECT MARKET CYCLES
      Author and educator Alan Hull manages the Alan Hull Books investor website (alanhullbooks.com.au). As an exercise, early in 2009 he drew up two portfolios, one comprising solid, highly rated blue chips and the other made up of "Dogs of the Dow" - large stocks that had been among the market's worst performers in the previous year.
      In the rally of 2009, the blue-chip portfolio recorded a one-year return of 15 per cent. By contrast, the "Dogs of the Dow" soared more than 90 per cent.
      "It was obvious that during 2009 we were in a bargain-hunter's environment," he says. "It was not a market that had reverted to fundamentals. That is not to say that fundamental analysis does not work. But it was not suited to that part of the market cycle.
      "If someone says to me fundamental analysis is the best method, or technical analysis is the best method, I become very sceptical, because there is no single solution. It is a question of discerning where we are in a market cycle and then working out the most appropriate investment style. To be successful as an investor, one has to be open and remain humble to the market."

       http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/money/investing/the-art-of-picking-gems-20101214-18w60.html

      New year financial resolutions

      New year financial resolutions
      John Wasiliev
      December 21, 2010 - 11:22AM

      While the coming fortnight usually sees most people relax and enjoy the festive season, anyone who is taking a longer break could do worse that put some of this time towards a review of their investment strategy.

      One reason why such reviews can be useful at this time of the year is because you can do something about a strategy that may not be going that well while there is still plenty of the financial year remaining.

      The end of the calendar year is half way through a financial year so there is still six months of the 2010-11 financial year remaining. You can also come up with financial new year’s resolutions with the goal of implementing at least one that should improve your financial position.

      For example you could make it a resolution that if you invest in shorter period term deposits that offer attractive returns that you still getting a good rate when the investment is rolled over. Banks have been known to invite investors to roll a deposit over for a 'similar term' without pointing out that same term does not necessarily mean the same higher interest rate.

      Another thing you can do, suggests Elizabeth Moran, an analyst with fixed interest broker FIIG Securities, is reassess your appetite for taking risks with your money. Is it still the same as it was a year ago or have you become more pessimistic or optimistic?

      Being more gloomy about the year ahead could suggest your tolerance for risk has lowered. Remaining optimistic on the other hand suggests you are happy with the present state of affairs. A question to ask is whether your state of mind is related to the state of your portfolio.

      A useful strategy when conducting a review is to check your exposure to different types of investments – shares, property and income investments – and decide whether they are likely to satisfy your goals for the rest of the year.

      Another consideration is to put any goals you have into perspective and maybe do things a bit differently.

      A commentary in the current edition of the National Australia Bank's private wealth division’s newsletter highlights the importance of having goals. It also makes a very interesting observation about goals and investing.

      It notes goals are often expressed with a single purpose in mind such as meeting certain future liabilities or expenses like paying for children’s education in 12 years’ time or retiring with a certain level of income at age But the reality is that people often have multiple goals with different time horizons as well as different priorities.

      An alternative investment strategy is one that that recognises multiple goals, priorities and time horizons. It can involve having distinct investment portfolios for each goal with each portfolio evaluated on its ability to meet its objective.

      Reflecting on the connection between an investment strategy and goals can be worthwhile at strategic times, such as the end of the calendar year, because it can be a period when people have the commodity many complain they are short of, namely the time to think about things. January is generally the quietest month of the year in financial markets, making it the most suitable time to spend considering your financial affairs.

      By contrast, the end of the financial year around 30 June is often a rushed period. There is never a real break and most people are as busy in July and August as they are in May and June. At least over the Christmas-New Year summer holiday period, things do slow down to give you space to consider your financial future.

      http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/money/on-the-money/new-year-financial-resolutions-20101218-19172.html

      Monday 20 December 2010

      Interest rates 'will have to rise sixfold in two years'

      Interest rates will have to rise almost sixfold over the next two years to cope with rising inflation, business leaders have warned.

      Interest rates will rise six fold in two years
      Interest rates will rise six fold in two years 
      It will bring financial pain to seven million home owners with floating interest rates who will see a jump of almost £200 on a typical monthly mortgage payment.
      Charities have already warned that repossessions are likely to rise next year and the threat of a succession of quick interest rate rises will exacerbate their fears.
      The Confederation of British Industry predicts that higher than anticipated rises in the cost of living will push the Bank of England (BoE) to begin increasing interest rates in the spring.
      It predicted that the Bank base rate – the interest rate at which the BoE lends to other banks – will rise more than two percentage points by the end of 2012. Mortgage rates are expected to follow closely behind.
      “Many households have been benefiting (from the low interest rates) in terms of mortgage payments, but that will start to turn over the next couple of years,” said Lai Wah Co, the CBI’s head of economic analysis.
      The organisation predicts that the Consumer Prices Index, the Government’s preferred measure of inflation, will reach 3.8 per cent within the first three months of next year and that it will still be well above the Bank’s 2 per cent target two years from now. It currently stands at 3.3 per cent.
      The CBI expects interest rates to climb from their record low level of just 0.5 per cent in the second quarter next year.
      It forecasts rates will rise 0.25 percentage points each quarter before the pace doubles in the middle of 2012 to 0.5 point increases, taking the bank rate to 2.75 per cent by that year’s end.
      Last week, the Bank of England warned in its Financial Stability Report that two thirds of borrowers are now on floating interest rate deals and the proportion is rising. At the height of the credit crisis in 2007, the proportion stood at less than half of all outstanding mortgages.
      A 2.25 per cent rise in mortgage rates would see the monthly repayments on a typical £150,000 mortgage increase from £909 to £1096.
      In another blow for home owners, economists predict that the average value of a home in Britain will lose 10 per cent of its value from their peak levels earlier this year to the end of 2011.
      The house price gains seen at the beginning of this year have already been wiped out, according to Nationwide.
      Britain’s biggest building society said the average price of a home dropped 0.3 per cent in November, the equivalent of almost £1,000 in a month, bringing the average price of a home to £163,398.
      The CBI expects inflation as measured by the retail prices index – which includes more housing costs – will follow an even higher path than CPI, reaching 5 per cent at the start of next year.
      The CBI said it had raised its quarterly forecasts to take into account the “persistent strength” of energy and commodity prices.
      High inflation will put further pressure on households as people face higher prices and mortgage rates, but pay packets struggle to keep pace.
      Tim Moore, an economist at research group Markit, said: “December brings to a close another difficult year for household finances. The UK economy looks to have avoided a double-dip recession in 2010, but there is little evidence that household finances have even begun to recover. People have seen their spending power gradually eroded by stubbornly high inflation throughout the year and little in the way of income growth to compensate for this.”

      Inflation beating investments

      Inflation beating investments

      Inflation has hit a new high, but there are options for income seekers.
      By Emma Wall 8:00AM GMT 18 Dec 2010

      Inflation has hit a new high, with Britain's cost of living rising at the fastest pace seen in six months. The Government's official measure of inflation, the consumer prices index (CPI), hit 3.3pc in November and, even more worryingly, the retail prices index (RPI), which some consider a more accurate inflation reading, rose to 4.7pc last month.

      This is another nail in the coffin for Britain's savers. The average easy-access savings account is paying 0.81pc – the effect of the Bank Rate remaining at just 0.5pc since March last year – and making it almost impossible for people to live off the income from their cash savings.

      Experts are urging income-chasers to turn to equities, saying the average yield from FTSE 100 companies is more than 3pc and some income funds promise 7pc. Equities do not carry the same guarantees as savings in a cash account, but if you choose the right investment vehicle, income from savings could again be a viable option.

      There are two main avenues through which to gain a yield from investing – shares that pay dividends or funds. The UK has some of the best stock markets for dividends.

      Nick Raynor, the investment adviser at The Share Centre, likes Chesnara, an underwriter for life assurance products, now at 210p a share and offering a yield of 7.5pc. Royal Dutch Shell "B" is £19.41 a share and offers a yield of 5.6pc.

      He also tips Aviva, at 366p, yielding 7.9pc: "Recent weakness in the share price takes the yield to almost 8pc, and the dividend is stable. We believe next year will see the dividend continue to rise."

      Mr Raynor also likes Vodafone at 163p a share and offering a yield of 4.8pc and property company British Land at 484p, yielding 5.6pc.

      European companies also offer attractive dividends. France Telecom paid a dividend of €1.40 last year – a yield of about 8pc.

      If you want to leave stock picking to experts, choose an income fund. There are straight equity income funds, bond funds and those that invest in a mixture of the two. Equity income funds hold a selection of companies for a chosen region, such as UK, Europe, emerging markets or global funds.

      There are fewer dividend-paying companies in the emerging markets region, but the number is increasing, and as it does more funds are expected to launch.

      There are 75 UK equity income funds, with the top-performing over the past five years being Halifax UK Equity Income. Based on £1,000 invested, with the income accumulated, the Halifax fund has returned 42pc.
      Troy Trojan Income, Unicorn UK Income and Aviva Investors UK Equity Income funds have all returned more than 35pc in the same period.

      If you are after an even bigger rate of interest, you could try an enhanced income fund. This is a fund that operates in tandem with a traditional income fund and sells call options on the income fund's holdings.
      Enhanced income funds aim to generate a higher income (typically a yield of 7pc a year compared with the average income fund that is now yielding 4.8pc), but at the cost of sacrificing some of the capital growth associated with shares – and they do this using complex derivatives known as options. The funds sell options, for which they receive a fee, on shares held in the portfolio based on a prediction of how the share price will rise in a three-month period.

      Enhanced income funds are able to offer much higher yields than traditional income funds because of the fee they get for selling the option. There are only a handful on the market, but there are plans to launch more.

      Opinions are divided as to whether they carry a higher risk than traditional income funds. Michael Clarke, the manager of Fidelity's Enhanced Income fund, said he tried to ensure as safe an investment as possible.

      In opting for high income, you also lose out on capital growth, so investors need to weigh up whether they are prepared to limit capital growth potential for a little bit of extra yield. Schroder Income Maximiser yielded 7.18pc in the past year, Fidelity Enhanced Income 7.39pc, Newton Higher Income 7.97pc and Insight UK Equity Income Booster 8.76pc.

      http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/8209610/Inflation-beating-investments.html

      Bursa Malaysia: The Past Years in Review

      1 Year Chart

      2 Years Chart


      5 Years Charts

      Australia: The Year in Review

      Saturday 18 December 2010

      LOCAL retail investors have been net sellers of stock for all but one month up to November this year

      Saturday December 18, 2010

      Buying patterns of foreign and local investors

      LOCAL retail investors have been net sellers of stock for all but one month up to November this year, but the pace of buying has slowly caught up with selling as the stock market rose towards its record high levels at the end of the year.

      According to trade statistics from Bursa Malaysia, retailers bought RM8.93bil worth of stock in November and sold RM8.99bil worth of shares. In terms of purchases, the highest amount of shares bought or sold was in January when retailers bought shares worth RM9bil but sold RM9.1bil.

      The pace of transactions declined thereafter but started to pick up in September when purchasers rose to RM5.58bil versus selling RM5.72bil worth of equity.

      In October, buying and selling rose to RM7.57bil and RM7.73bil respectively and in November, when the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) hit a record 1,528 points, retailers bought RM8.93bil worth of shares and sold RM8.99bil worth.

      The pace of purchasers also reflected the monthly value of trade done on Bursa Malaysia. Data for December has not been released.

      In terms of value, the highest month of transactions based on value was November when RM39bil worth of trade was conducted. The month also saw the entry of the largest IPO in the country, Petronas Chemicals Group Bhd, which attracted a great deal of interest among institutional investors.

      The value of transactions has also mirrored the FBM KLCI’s ascendency to its new peak.

      Total value of trade in October was RM36.5bil and RM31.6bil worth of share transactions were done in September.

      Trade value has been consistently rising since July when total transactions were RM26.1bil. The value of transactions has somewhat tracked the rising amount of foreign investor interest in the stock market.

      Foreign institutions have been net buyers of Malaysian shares since June but over the last couple of months, the amount of the net purchasers by foreign institutions has been shrinking.

      As foreign investors have been net buyers of Malaysian shares over the past 6 months, most of that extra liquidity or shares available for purchase has come from local institutions.

      Local institutions have been net sellers of shares on Bursa Malaysia since June and only emerged as net buyers in November.

      One of the highest months of purchases by local institutions was in March when local funds bought RM12.8bil worth of stock and sold RM13.1bil in shares.

      Total transactions by local institutions dipped thereafter but started to pick up once again in September when such funds bought RM9.7bil worth of shares and sold RM14bil worth.

      The net selling gap then dropped as interest in Malaysian shares picked up again and in October, local institutions bought and sold RM12.8bil and RM14.2bil worth of shares.

      In November, local funds reversed their selling trend of previous months when it bought RM12bil in stock and sold RM11.5bil in shares.

      Foreign investors have also increased their buying of Malaysian shares in recent months and in August bought more shares than local institutions.

      Foreign investors continued to buy more shares on Bursa Malaysia compared with local insitutions in September but in October, as the market continued to charged towards its record high, local institutions poured more money into Malaysian shares compared with foreign institutions.

      In November, local institutions’ purchase of stocks at RM12bil was higher than foreign institutional funds which snapped up RM11.5bil worth of shares. — By Jagdev Singh Sidhu

      http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2010/12/18/business/7640311&sec=business

      Johor Corp seeks to refinance the RM3.6bil loan obligation that will become due in the middle of 2012.

      Saturday December 18, 2010

      JCorp seeks to remove Muhammad Ali
      By RISEN JAYASEELAN
      risen@thestar.com.my


      PETALING JAYA: Johor Corp (JCorp) is seeking to remove Tan Sri Muhammad Ali Hashim, its previous head for 18 years, from the boards of three listed companies it has direct stakes in.

      The move seems to confirm speculation that Muhammad Ali, who had suddenly resigned as JCorp's CEO in July, is no longer in the good books of the powers that be in the state of Johor.

      JCorp has called for EGMs at Kulim (M) Bhd, KPJ Healthcare Bhd and Damansara Realty Bhd (DRealty) for this purpose.

      The removal of Muhammad Ali will be via ordinary resolutions at each of these companies, which means that a simple majority of shareholder votes would achieve the desired result.

      While JCorp controls more than 50% of the equity of Kulim and DRealty, it owns only 237.8 million shares in KPJ Healthcare, according to the latest shareholding changes filed with Bursa Malaysia. And according to Bloomberg data, this number of shares amounts to only a 42.6% stake in KPJ.

      Hence it appears that for Muhammad Ali to be ousted from KPJ's board, it is going to have to acquire more shares in KPJ or seek the support of other shareholders.

      JCorp has been in the news recently after three bids had been presented to Kulim for its controlling stake in QSR Brands Bhd, which in turn is the parent company of KFC Holdings (M) Bhd.

      After some delay, JCorp, via Kulim, finally said it was not selling QSR or its subsidiaries, noting that these were key assets in the group and that more value could be extracted from them.

      That raised the question: if JCorp was not selling, how come the bids came in from such established names as private equity giants The Carlyle Group and CVC Capital?

      It had been reported that insiders said Muhammad Ali could be responsible for putting QSR up for sale. Muhammad Ali is chairman of Kulim, QSR and KFC as well as of KPJ Healthcare and DRealty.

      It has also been reported that Muhammad Ali's sudden departure from JCorp had to do with the mountain of debt at JCorp, which was built up via ambitious acquisitions of companies during his tenure as CEO, something that Muhammad Ali has denied in the past, noting that the group has sufficient assets that can be sold to repay off the debt.

      Muhammad Ali's tenure at JCorp had attracted both praise and criticism. He had made JCorp one of the most dynamic state investment arms but detractors say he ruled the group like his own fiefdom and expanded the group too fast, accumulating too much debt in the process.

      A strong advocate of what he calls business jihad, Muhammad Ali has said he believes business is a good way to help people as it can create wealth and jobs and eliminate poverty.

      JCorp recently hired Kamaruzzaman Abu Kassim, its head of finance, as its new CEO.

      Some insiders reckon that the action to remove Muhammad Ali signals a resolve by Kamaruzzaman to usher in the new leadership at the group in a post Muhammad Ali era.

      It's actually not out of the ordinary. Muhammad Ali had stepped down as JCorp CEO some months ago although he has not relinquished his chairmanship and directorships at the JCorp-controlled companies. This is a matter of process more than anything else, which would likely lead to JCorp putting in a replacement for him as soon as the removal is completed, said one insider.

      Kamaruzzaman recently told the media that JCorp would not be selling any of its assets to settle its loan obligations. Instead, it would seek to refinance the RM3.6bil loan obligation that will become due in the middle of 2012.

      All three EGMs for Muhammad Ali's removal will be held next month, specifically on Jan 17 for Kulim, Jan 21 for DRealty and Jan 26 for KPJ Healthcare.

      http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2010/12/18/business/7647835&sec=business

      Mr. Yen: A world recession until 2018.

      All hands to the pumps, unless you have a yen for recession until 2018

      William Pesek
      December 18, 2010

      In an era where forecasts by perma-bears have gotten ample attention and vindication, few are as disturbing as this: a world recession until 2018.

      It comes from Eisuke Sakakibara, Japan's former top currency official. He is known as ''Mr Yen'' for his ability to move markets. Because Tokyo's revolving-door politics tends to send a new face to each G20 meeting, he is one of the few Japanese constants in market circles. Traders may not know the latest finance minister's name, but they know Sakakibara.

      Japan is the master of muddling along, decade after decade, with little growth to show for it. And Sakakibara was a key player when it faced everything from the Asian crisis to the onset of deflation and the banking collapse that led to the demise of Yamaichi Securities.

      So, when an economist with Sakakibara's background says ''the world is set for a long-term structural slump reminiscent of the 1870s'', when average global growth was about 1 per cent a year, I cannot help but listen. The reason for the slowdown? Governments are putting fiscal austerity ahead of restoring stable growth.

      Yes, there's an eye-rolling quality to a former finance ministry mandarin giving economic advice. After all, officials there did Japan's 126 million people a disservice by punting reform far down the road. They just borrowed and borrowed, leaving Japan with the largest public debt among industrialised nations and no exit strategy in sight.

      Yet recent data in the US and Japan and turbulence in Europe suggest a fresh global recession is a distinct possibility next year. If that happens, what levers are realistically available to revive demand? Interest rates are already at, or close to, zero. That leaves increased government spending as the only real way to stabilise things.

      The trouble is, there's little support for opening the fiscal floodgates.

      One reason is there is already loads of public debt. As of June, Japan's $US5 trillion economy had ¥904 trillion ($10.8 trillion) in debt. Too much debt is wreaking havoc in Europe, where Ireland is the latest domino to fall.

      The US is starting to rattle bondholders with its borrowing binge. President Barack Obama's stimulus isn't working the magic economists hoped. Neither is the Federal Reserve, as it goes the way of Japan with quantitative easing.

      Worse, in the US and other major economies, is the risk that it may be 1937 all over again. It was then that President Franklin Delano Roosevelt got stingy with stimulus, assuming that the Great Depression was over. The next year the economy was in full retreat.

      If Sakakibara is right, the global economy is in deep trouble. He envisions a broad slowdown that might drag on for seven to eight years. China can live a couple of years without US and European growth, but eight?

      To head it off, governments need to lift spending. And, for the most part, they aren't. Yet the US can, and should, borrow more. To do that, it just needs to become a bit more Japanese, says Richard Duncan, author of the The Corruption of Capitalism.

      There is a single reason why Japan's 10-year bond yields are below 1.3 per cent and Asia's No. 2 economy isn't being downgraded. Since about 95 per cent of Japan's debt is held domestically, there's no risk of capital flight. Japan borrows from its companies and people, an arrangement that is roughly the mirror image of the US.

      That so many treasuries are held in China and elsewhere makes the US vulnerable. Duncan, the chief economist at Blackhorse Asset Management, says the US needs another FDR-like new deal to restore growth. Funding one means greater borrowing and the way to do it is by tapping private sector cash, Japan-style.

      Such suggestions are likely to fall with a thud on Capitol Hill, which is moving in the opposite direction. Lawmakers calling for Ben Bernanke's head forget why the Fed chairman is taking US monetary policy into uncharted territory. It is because Congress failed to pump enough money into the economy in the first place.

      Japan is a cautionary tale. On the surface, the 4.5 per cent annualised increase in third-quarter gross domestic product looked promising. The detail, however, showed deflation is worsening no matter how many yen the Bank of Japan churns into the economy. This is anything but a typical recession, and world leaders are too distracted to see it.

      In the US, the focus is on China's currency. While a stronger yuan would be in the best interests of the global economy, it is not the answer to all US problems. Japan is even more obsessed with exchange rates. And Europe is linearly focused on convincing investors that the euro zone won't unravel.

      In our time of currency fixation, perhaps a guy called Mr Yen is the ideal messenger.

      Bloomberg

      Game changer for Madoff victims: $7.3b recovered

      Game changer for Madoff victims: $7.3b recovered
      December 18, 2010 - 8:24AM

      The widow of a Florida philanthropist who had been the single largest beneficiary of Bernard Madoff’s colossal Ponzi scheme has agreed to return $US7.2 billion ($7.3 billion) in bogus profits to the victims of the fraud.

      The trustee recovering money for Madoff’s burned investors have filed court papers formalising the settlement with the estate of Jeffry Picower, a businessman who drowned after suffering a heart attack in the swimming pool of his Palm Beach, Florida, mansion in October last year.

      ‘‘We will return every penny received from almost 35 years of investing with Bernard Madoff,’’ Picower’s wife, Barbara, said in a written statement.

      ‘‘I believe the Madoff Ponzi scheme was deplorable and I am deeply saddened by the tragic impact it continues to have on the lives of its victims,’’ she said. ‘‘It is my hope that this settlement will ease that suffering.’’

      US Attorney Preet Bharara called the settlement a ‘‘game changer’’ for Madoff’s victims.

      A recovery of that size would mean that a sizable number could get at least half of their money back - a remarkable turnaround for people and institutions that thought two years ago they had lost everything.

      ‘‘Barbara Picower has done the right thing,’’ Bharara said.

      Jeffry Picower, who was 67 when he died, was one of Madoff’s oldest clients. Over the decades, he withdrew about $US7 billion in bogus profits from his accounts with the schemer. That amounts to more than a third of the dollars that disappeared in the scandal.

      That money was supposedly made on stock trades, but authorities said that in reality it was simply stolen from other investors.

      Picower’s lawyers claimed he knew nothing about the scheme, but court-appointed trustee Irving Picard had argued in court papers he must have known the returns were ‘‘implausibly high’’ and based on fraud.

      In her statement, Barbara Picower said she was ‘‘absolutely confident that my husband Jeffry was in no way complicit in Madoff’s fraud and want to underscore the fact that neither the trustee, nor the US attorney, has charged him with any illegal act’’.

      Lawyers for Picower’s estate have been in negotiations with the trustee for some time.

      After Picower drowned, his will revealed he had earmarked most of his fortune for charity, but his widow said in a statement that the family wished to return some of it to Madoff’s victims through ‘‘a fair and generous settlement’’.

      A huge charitable foundation Picower had created with part of his fortune closed in 2009 after its assets were wiped out in the Madoff fraud.It had donated hundreds of millions of dollars to colleges, libraries and other nonprofit groups.

      Thousands of people, banks and hedge funds that invested money with Madoff saw their savings wiped out when the fraud was revealed to be a hoax. Many, though, like Picower, had been drawing bogus profits from their Madoff accounts for years and wound up walking away from the scheme having taken out more money than they put in.

      Picard has been involved in a two-year effort to claw back those false profits and return the stolen money to people who were net-losers in the scheme.

      It is those people, who lost more than they withdrew, who could now be poised to recover half of their original investment.

      The person said Picower’s estate would pay $US5 billion to settle the civil lawsuit brought by Picard and another $US2.2 billion to resolve a civil forfeiture claim by federal prosecutors investigating Madoff’s crimes. All the money will go to victims of the fraud.

      Bharara called the total ‘‘a truly staggering sum that was really always other people’s money’’.

      Madoff’s clients had thought, based on his fraudulent account statements, they collectively had more than $US60 billion invested in stocks through the money manager’s funds.

      Investigators found, though, no investments had ever been made, and the $US20 billion in principal contributed by Madoff’s clients was simply being paid out bit by bit to other investors.

      Bharara said roughly half of that lost money has been recovered.

      AP