A Brief Look at Poh Kong

Poh Kong Holdings Berhad Company

Business Description:
Poh Kong Holdings Berhad is a Malaysia-based company engaged in investment holding and the provision of management services. Through its subsidiaries, the Company operates in three segments:

1. trading, which is engaged as suppliers and retailers of jewelries, precious stones and gold ornaments; 
2. manufacturing, which is engaged as a manufacturer and dealers of jewelries, precious stones and gold ornaments, and 
3. others, which includes investment holding. 

Its products are divided into two main categories: viz gold and gemset jewelries. The Company's jewelry products include Koleksi Anggun, Tranz collection, Angel collection, Diamond collection, Disney collection, Festival collection, Romance collection, Gold Bar collection and Impressionism. On October 14, 2009, through Poh Kong International Sdn Bhd, a wholly owned subsidiary, the Company had disposed off its equity interest in its subsidiary, Poh Kong Diamond Industry Limited. The Company's ultimate holding company is Poh Kong Sdn Bhd.

Current Price (7/1/2011): 0.51
2010 Sales 561,243,734
Employees: 1,047
Market Cap: 209,279,520
Shares Outstanding: 410,352,000
Closely Held Shares: N/A

2004 DPS 1.0 EPS 8.5
2005 DPS 1.2 EPS 2.9
2006 DPS 1.2 EPS 5.3
2007 DPS 1.3 EPS 4.5
2008 DPS 1.4 EPS 7.0
2009 DPS 1.4 EPS 6.9
2010 DPS 1.4 EPS 7.7
1Q11 DPS - EPS 2.65

Recent Financial Results

Announcement Date		Financial Yr. End		Qtr	Period End		Revenue RM '000		Profit/Lost RM'000		EPS		Amended
06-Dec-10		31-Jul-11		1	31-Oct-10		169,451		10,885		2.65		-
28-Sep-10		31-Jul-10		4	31-Jul-10		131,906		7,789		1.90		-
28-Jun-10		31-Jul-10		3	30-Apr-10		132,737		6,470		1.58		-
29-Mar-10		31-Jul-10		2	31-Jan-10		144,207		7,494		1.83		-

Estimated EPS for 2011 = ttm-EPS = 7.96 sen
Projected PE for 2011 = 51 / 7.96 = 6.4 x

Historical
5 Yr
PE range 5.0 - 9.5
DY range 4.5% - 2.5%

10 Yr
PE range 5.6 - 10.8
DY range 4.2% - 2.3%

Capital Changes & Dilution

2008 3/4 Bonus. 1 to 2 Share Split

A Brief Look at Affin Holdings Bhd.

Affin Holdings Berhad Company

Business Description:
Affin Holdings Berhad is an investment holding company. It operates in five segments:

1. commercial banking and hire purchase, 
2. investment banking, 
3. stock-broking, 
4. insurance and 
5. others. 

The Commercial Banking and Hire Purchase segment focuses on business of banking in all aspects which includes Islamic Banking operations. Investment banking segment includes business of a merchant bank, discount house, fund and unit trusts management. Stock-broking segment comprises institutional and retail broking business for securities listed on the Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad, investment management and research services. The insurance segment includes the business of underwriting all classes of general and life insurance businesses in Malaysia. Other business segments in the Group include operation of investment holding companies, money-broking, insurance-broking and other related financial services. Operations are carried out in Malaysia.

Current Price (7/1/2011): 3.39
2009 Sales 1,885,694,000
Employees: 3,528
Market Cap: 5,066,612,640
Shares Outstanding: 1,494,576,000
Closely Held Shares: 1,160,222,910

2004 DPS 0.4 EPS 26.5
2005 DPS 2.2 EPS 19.5
2006 DPS 2.9 EPS 18.1
2007 DPS 3.7 EPS 16.9
2008 DPS 5.9 EPS 19.6
2009 DPS 6.4 EPS 24.9
9M10 DPS 9.0 EPS 24.23 NTA 3.46

Estimated EPS for 2010 = 24.23*4/3 = 32.31 sen
Projected PE for 2010 = 3.39/0.3231 = 10.5 x

Historical
5 Yr
PE range 7.6 - 13.0
DY range 3.5% - 1.9%

10 Yr
PE range 7.3 - 12.0
DY range 2.1% - 1.2%

Recent Financial Results

Announcement Date		Financial Yr. End		Qtr	Period End		Revenue RM '000		Profit/Lost RM'000		EPS		Amended
26-Nov-10		31-Dec-10		3	30-Sep-10		597,821		115,015		7.70		-
20-Aug-10		31-Dec-10		2	30-Jun-10		534,605		111,706		7.48		-
31-May-10		31-Dec-10		1	31-Mar-10		520,025		135,332		9.06		-
25-Feb-10		31-Dec-09		4	31-Dec-09		510,409		84,170		5.63		-

A Brief Look at Malayan Banking Bhd

Malayan Banking Berhad Company

Business Description:
Malayan Banking Berhad (Maybank) is engaged in the business of banking and finance. Through its subsidiaries, Maybank operates in six segments, which include

1. consumer banking, 
2. business and corporate banking, 
3. global market, 
4. investment banking,
5. insurance and asset management and 
6. international banking. 

Its global market segment comprises the full range of products and services relating to treasury activities and services, including foreign exchange, money market, derivates and trading of capital market instruments. Its investment banking segment comprises the business of an investment bank, discount house and securities broker. Its insurance and asset management segment comprises the business of underwriting all classes of general and life insurance, offshore investment life insurance, general takaful and family takaful, asset and fund management, nominee and trustee services and custodian services.

Current Price (7/1/2011): 9.00
Employees: 40,000
Market Cap: 65,900,163,519
Shares Outstanding: 7,322,240,391
Closely Held Shares: 4,362,026,586

2004 DPS 30.6 EPS 47.7
2005 DPS 53.7 EPS 47.6
2006 DPS 43.3 EPS 52.2
2007 DPS 41.3 EPS 57.8
2008 DPS 32.1 EPS 58.3
2009 DPS 6.00 EPS 33.5
2010 DPS 55.0 EPS 53.94
1Q11 DPS - EPS 14.53 NTA 4.0007

Estimated EPS for FY 2011 4*14.53 = 58.12 sen
Projected PE for FY 2011 = 15.5 x

Historical
5 Yr
PE range 11.3 - 17.4
DY range 5.4% - 3.6%

10 Yr
PE range 14.1 - 20.4
DY range 4.7% - 3.4%

Recent Financial Results

Announcement Date		Financial Yr. End		Qtr	Period End		Revenue RM '000		Profit/Lost RM'000		EPS		Amended
12-Nov-10		30-Jun-11		1	30-Sep-10		5,001,923		1,053,640		14.53		-
20-Aug-10		30-Jun-10		4	30-Jun-10		4,737,314		975,033		12.89		-
13-May-10		30-Jun-10		3	31-Mar-10		4,586,454		1,063,284		14.56		-
09-Feb-10		30-Jun-10		2	31-Dec-09		4,671,338		1,023,380		14.04		-

Capital Changes

2008 1/4 Bonus

2009 9/20 Rights @ RM 2.74

Related reading:

Risk comes from misjudgement of a company's prospects, not price volatility

A Brief Look at Berjaya Corporation Berhad: A very complicated conglomerate

Berjaya Corporation Berhad Company

Business Description:
Berjaya Corporation Berhad is an investment holding company and is engaged in the provision of management services. The principal activities of the Company and its subsidiaries include financial services; marketing of consumer products and services; restaurants; property development and investment in properties; development and operation of vacation time share, hotels and resorts, water theme park and operating of a casino; operations of toto betting; leasing of online lottery equipment; manufacture and distribution of computerized lottery and voting systems; publication, printing and distribution of daily newspaper; manufacturing, and investment holding and others. During the fiscal year ended April 30, 2009 (fiscal 2009), the Company acquired 100% interest in Berjaya North Asia Holdings Pte Ltd (BNAH). In September 2009, the Company announced that acquisition of a wholly owned subsidiary, ecosway Japan K.K.

1Q11 Turnover:
Toto betting operations 47.8%
Financial services 8%
Property investment & development 2.8%
Hotel & resort 4.2%
Marketing 32.8%
Others 4.4%

2002 EPS -106 DPS 0.0
2003 EPS -80.6 DPS 0.0
2004 EPS 15.9 DPS 0.0
2005 EPS -30.9 DPS 0.0
2006 EPS -2.8 DPS 0.0
2007 EPS 4.0 DPS 2.9
2008 EPS 2.8 DPS 4.3
2009 EPS 3.7 DPS 3.3
2010 EPS 2.1 DPS 1.0
1H11 EPS 4.85 DPS 5.0(Proposed)

Current Price (7/1/2011): 1.23
Market Cap: 5,179,003,560
Shares Outstanding: 4,210,572,000
Closely Held Shares: 1,953,945,595

Estimated EPS for FYE 2011 = 2*4.85 = 9.7 sen
Projected PE for FY 2011 = 12.7 x

Historical
5 Yr
PE range 13.3 - 41.6
DY range 6.6% - 1.8%

10 Yr
PE range 11.3 - 34.3
DY range 3.3% - 0.9%

Recent Financial Results

Announcement Date		Financial Yr. End		Qtr	Period End		Revenue RM '000		Profit/Lost RM'000		EPS		Amended
30-Dec-10		30-Apr-11		2	31-Oct-10		1,719,909		137,427		1.97		-
29-Sep-10		30-Apr-11		1	31-Jul-10		1,744,567		187,390		2.88		-
30-Jun-10		30-Apr-10		4	30-Apr-10		1,887,330		253,738		3.41		-
31-Mar-10		30-Apr-10		3	31-Jan-10		1,660,417		-97,041		-3.72		-

Capital Changes

2010 25/1000 Distribution of BjMedia shares

ICULS Amount 233.53m Maturity 30/10/2015 Rate 0% Conv. Pr. RM 1.00

Petronas Dagangan - A stock par excellence

Zas, a regular visitor to my blog posted in my chat-box.

13 Jan 11, 11:15 PM
zas: petdag buy as a gift to grandchildren
13 Jan 11, 11:14 PM
zas: LPI n Petdag is super longterm stock.Imagine in 10 years if petdag revalue its petrolkios land or possible develop into poperty development!!

-----

Yes, Petdag is a very high quality company. This was what I wrote on this company in one of the many posts on Petdag. 

3.6.2009:
"I like this company. It is a company that I can relate to. Petronas service stations are sprouting all over the place. It has a virtual monopoly supplying energy to certain niche sectors. Its revenue has been good and profitable. It generates a lot of free cash flow. It has been reinvesting into its business regularly, and the return on the equity is a 16.89% which is one of the my investing criteria. Its ROTC is 16.89%, as this company has no borrowings. Its earnings yield is at least 2x that of the risk free FD interest rate. Its dividend has been increasing over the years and I do not anticipate any decrease in future dividend despite the poor economic environment. In fact, it is predicted that the future earnings should continue to show an uptrend, and growth is encouraging with new Petronas stations opening up in new locations funded by self generated profit. The company is debt free.


At 7.90, its PE of 11.86 is at the lower end of its historical 5 year and 10 year PEs. There is safety of capital with a reasonable potential for moderate return (low risk with moderate return) for those with a longer term investing horizon. Just loudly sharing my view, you will need to make your own investing decision based on your personal assessment."

Petdag continues to deliver good profits and dividends.  What was written in 2009 remains applicable, though the PE has expanded since then, in other words, those wishing to buy this stock will have to pay more for each ringgit of its earnings.

A Brief Look at Suria Capital Holdings Bhd.

Suria Capital Holdings Berhad Company

Business Description:
Suria Capital Holdings Berhad is a Malaysia-based investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates in five segments:

• investment holding, which include investments in fixed deposits and short term investments; 
• property development, which include development of residential and commercial properties; 
• port operations, which include provision of port and related services, distributor of port cargo handling equipment and related spare parts, and provision of equipment maintenance services; 
• logistics and bunkering, which include the provision of bunkering and related services, and 
• contract and engineering, which is engaged as construction contractor and the provision of project management and technical support services. 

It has six subsidiaries, namely Sabah Ports Sdn. Bhd., Suria Bumiria Sdn. Bhd., SCHB Engineering Services Sdn. Bhd., S.P. Satria Sdn. Bhd., S.P. Satria Logistics Sdn. Bhd. and Tricubes Suria Sdn. Bhd.

2004 EPS 5.8 DPS 0.0
2005 EPS 14.1 DPS 1.4
2006 EPS 17.3 DPS 1.4
2007 #EPS 18.2 DPS 1.8
2008 EPS 13.2 DPS 10.4
2009 EPS 19.8 DPS 2.3
9M10 EPS 19.88 DPS -

#EPS adjusted for one off exceptional gain

Current Price (7/1/2011): RM 2.00
Estimated EPS for 2010 = 19.88*4/3 = 26.5 sen
Projected PE for 2010 = 7.55

Historical
5 Yr
PE 4.8 - 13.9
DY% 4.2 - 1.4

10 Yr
PE 28.4 - 62.4
DY% 2.3 - 0.8

Recent Financial Results

Announcement Date		Financial Yr. End		Qtr	Period End		Revenue RM '000		Profit/Lost RM'000		EPS		Amended
15-Nov-10		31-Dec-10		3	30-Sep-10		64,604		18,632		6.62		Amended
30-Jul-10		31-Dec-10		2	30-Jun-10		62,786		18,800		6.62		-
26-May-10		31-Dec-10		1	31-Mar-10		59,708		18,851		6.64		-
19-Feb-10		31-Dec-09		4	31-Dec-09		65,015		19,132		6.69		-

Commentary on Prospects (from the Company's quarterly report):  Port operations will continue to be the main contributor to the Group's earnings and the Board is optimistic of achieving better performance for the financial year.

A Brief Look at Tongher

2003 EPS 16.2 DPS 5.3
2004 EPS 35.4 DPS 14.0
2005 EPS 23.4 DPS 12.1
2006 EPS 43.7 DPS 13.0
2007 EPS 51.0 DPS 10.2
2008 EPS 14.4 DPS 13.9
2009 EPS 6.60 DPS 5.00
9M10 EPS 14.50 DPS 5.00

Price RM 2.73 (7.1.2011)
Estimated EPS for 2011 14.50*4/3 = 19.33
Projected PE for 2011 = 14.1 x

Historical
5 Yr
PE 10.7 - 17.4
DY% 5.8 - 3.1

10 Yr
PE 9.0 - 15.1
DY% 6.6 - 3.7

Capital Change

2007 1/2 Bonus

Comment:

Tongher is a cyclical stock.  Given the cyclical business that it is in, its share price has fluctuated wildly largely determined by its business cycle and the challenging environment.  It's share price has gone down a lot during the recent global financial crisis due to poor profits.  Its latest NTA per share was RM 2.29.

Since the company has remained profitable, its assets are generating profits and its balance sheet is not harmed or eaten away by toxic assets.  One can expect its profits to normalise and also its new investments to generate additional summative profits given time.

The high PE of Tongher during the early part of the global financial crisis was due to the fact that its profits fell faster than its share price.  With its profits recovering, its high PE is contracting, as its profits are growing at a faster rate than its share price.


Those holding this stock can expect to see real upside in the share price of Tongher over time.


Related:

Are Cyclical stocks also Value stocks? Value stocks usually earn money, turnaround stocks may not.

A Brief Look at Nestle (M) Bhd.

2006 EPS 112.7 DPS 95.0
2007 EPS 124.5 DPS 100.0
2008 EPS 145.4 DPS 190.0
2009 EPS 150.0 DPS 130.0
9M10 EPS 150.17 DPS -

Price RM 44.48 (7.1.2011)
Estimated EPS for 2011 150.17*4/3 = 200.23
Projected PE for 2011 =  22.2 x

Historical
5 Yr
PE 18.1 - 23.7
DY% 5,.1 - 3.9

10 Yr
PE 20.9 - 25.2
DY%  4.6 - 3.8

A Brief Look at LPI Capital Bhd.

2006 EPS 33.8 DPS 32.4

2007 EPS 38.0 DPS 48.2

2008 EPS 45.1 DPS 48.8

2009 EPS 54.5 DPS 40.5

2010 EPS 63.83 DPS 55.0

Price RM 13.96 (13.01.2011)

Estimated EPS for 2011 63.83*1.10 = 70.213

Projected PE for 2011 = 19.9 x

Historical

5 Yr

PE 11.6 - 17.5

DY% 7.8 - 5.1

10 Yr

PE 11.2 - 16.4

DY% 6.9 - 4.7

Capital Changes

2010 1/2 Bonus, 1/10 Rights @ RM 7.00

A Brief Look at Guinness Anchor Berhad (Malaysia)

2006 EPS 42.4 DPS 30.2

2007 EPS 37.3 DPS 32.9

2008 EPS 41.7 DPS 36.4

2009 EPS 47.0 DPS 41.0

2010 EPS 50.54 DPS 45.0

1Q11 EPS 12.81 DPS -

Price RM 11.00 (13.1.2011)

Estimated EPS 2011 = 4*12.81 = 51.24

Projected PE for 2011 = 21.5 x

Historical

5 Yr 

PE 12.2 - 16.0

DY 7.0% - 5.3%

10 Yr

PE 12.9 - 16.6

DY 7.5% - 5.8%

A Brief Look at Public Bank Berhad

2006 EPS O.518 DIV 0.60

2007 EPS 0.605 DIV 0.75

2008 EPS 0.731 DIV 0.55

2009 EPS 0.713 DIV 0.55

1H10 EPS 0.402 DIV 0.25

9M10 EPS 0.623 DIV -

Price 13.54 (7.1.2011)

Estimated EPS for 2010 =  4*0.623 / 3 = 0.831

Projected PE = 16.3 x

Historical 

5 Yr PE 11.5 - 16.2

10 Yr PE 11.8 - 16.7

Capital Changes

2009 1/35 Treasury Share Distribution

2010 1/68 Treasury Share Distribution

A Brief Look at Petronas Dagangan

2007 EPS 0.645 Div 0.30
2008 EPS 0.666 Div 0.45
2009 EPS 0.582 Div 0.45
2010 EPS 0.758 Div 0.60
1H11 EPS 0.408 Div 0.40

Today's Price of PetDag 12.34
Estimated EPS for 2011 = 2 x 0.408 = 0.816
Projected PE = 15.1 x

Historical PE range:
5 Year PE 9.5 - 13.8
10 Year PE 10.5 - 14.7

Given that an interim dividend of RM 0.40 was already paid in the 1H of 2011, it is anticipated that the dividend for this year by PetDag will be generous and exceed the previous years' dividends.

 

Capital Changes:  2005 1/1 Bonus

LPI

Date announced 11th Jan 2011
Quarter 31/12/2010 Qtr 4 FYE 31/12/2010

STOCK LPI C0DE  8621 

Price $ 14.18
Curr. ttm-PE  22.50
Curr. DY 3.61%

LFY Div 51.25 DPO ratio 81%
ROE 12.0% PBT Margin 25.8% PAT Margin 19.9%

Rec. qRev 190745 q-q % chg -12% y-y% chq 24%
Rec qPbt 49135 q-q % chg 4% y-y% chq 6%
Rec. qEps 16.77 q-q % chg 0% y-y% chq 6%
ttm-Eps 63.03 q-q % chg 1% y-y% chq 10%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 10%
Avg.H PE 15.00
Avg. L PE 12.00

Forecast High Pr 15.23 Forecast Low Pr 8.95 Recent Severe Low Pr 8.95

Current price is at Upper 1/3 of valuation zone.
RISK: Upside 17% Downside 83%
One Year Appreciation Potential 1% Avg. yield 6%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 7%

CPE/SPE 1.67
P/NTA 2.69
NTA 5.27
SPE 13.50
Rational Pr 8.51



Decision: 
Already Owned: Buy, Hold, Sell, Filed;
Review (future acq): Filed
Discard: Filed

Guide:
Valuation zones Lower 1/3 Buy, Mid. 1/3 Maybe, Upper 1/3 Sell.

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr


2009 Sales 431,018,000
Employees: 543
Market Cap: 3,120,668,400
Shares Outstanding: 221,324,000
Closely Held Shares: 107,659,500

The Best Long-term Performers in any Probabilistic field emphasize PROCESS over OUTCOME.

Process versus outcome

Probably the best discussion that I've seen about this issue comes from Michael Mauboussin's book More Than You Know. Tellingly, it's the very first chapter of the book, and it opens with this quote from Robert Rubin:

Individual decisions can be badly thought through, and yet be successful, or exceedingly well thought through, but be unsuccessful, because the recognized possibility of failure in fact occurs. But over time, more thoughtful decision-making will lead to better overall results, and more thoughtful decision-making can be encouraged by evaluating decisions on how well they were made rather than on outcome.

Mauboussin emphasizes the point, writing:

... investors often make the critical mistake of assuming that good outcomes are the result of a good process and that bad outcomes imply a bad process. In contrast, the best long-term performers in any probabilistic field -- such as investing, sports-team management, and parimutuel betting -- all emphasize process over outcome.

Winning the process game

Mauboussin very clearly lays out what the ideal goal of any investment process should be:

The goal of an investment process is unambiguous: to identify gaps between a company's stock price and its expected value. Expected value, in turn, is the weighted-average value for a distribution of possible outcomes. You calculate it by multiplying the payoff (i.e., stock price) for a given outcome by the probability that the outcome materializes.

What does this mean in practical terms? I often begin my investment research using a screen that identifies stocks with certain attributes. For our purposes here, let's say I'm looking for stocks that are currently out of favor with investors, so I set a screen looking for any stock that has declined by 20% or more over the past year and is currently trading at less than its tangible book value. Here are a few of the companies that pop up:

Company	Year-Over-Year Price Change	Price-to-Tangible Book Value
Banner Corp (Nasdaq: BANR)	(23.7%)	0.6
K-SEA Transportation Partners(NYSE: KSP)	(61.4%)	0.4
Oilsands Quest (NYSE: BQI)	(59.0%)	0.4
Hercules Offshore (Nasdaq:HERO)	(38.1%)	0.4
American National Insurance(Nasdaq: ANAT)	(26.5%)	0.6

Source: Capital IQ, a Standard & Poor's company.

To follow good process in evaluating these stocks, I'd first try to identify possible outcomes for them, and what those outcomes would mean for the stock price. 

1. Washington-state-based Banner, for instance, traded at more than twice its tangible book value prior to the financial crisis, so we could probably envision a case where shares recover to three or four times their current value. 
2. American National Insurance, meanwhile, has had cyclical valuation swings that have typically put its tangible book value multiple in a range of 0.5 to just above 1.0. In a scenario where toxic assets don't eat away at the balance sheet and investment returns start to increase, investors could see real upside here, too.
3. Of course, we also need to consider negative outcomes, as well. For example, investors would want to note that Oilsands Quest has never reported an annual profit. There may be a huge upside if the company finds a way to profitability, but its assets may not be worth all that much if it can only produce losses. 
4. Similarly, driller Hercules Offshore has been trying to find its footing again, but the need for a balance-sheet-strengthening capital raise may impact the value of currently outstanding shares.

Once you have a list of the potential outcomes for the stock in question, you can then weigh the potential for each of those outcomes to come to fruition, and end up with a good sense of whether the stock is a worthwhile investment.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/01/11/this-is-more-important-than-investment-profits.aspx