Tortoise always wins in super race

Tortoise always wins in super race
Chris Becker
November 23, 2011 - 12:01PM

 

Retirement may come sooner than your super fund's recovery. Photo: ThinkStock

We all bemoan the state of our super when we open our statements each year particularly given the rolling ongoing crises that beset the share market. Yet the common wisdom is to always look to the long term and eschew focusing on the short-term gyrations.

You've probably heard that to fund your retirement, your super fund should return inflation plus three per cent. To achieve this, you've been told to allocate nearly three quarters of your retirement savings into growth assets, mainly shares, or you will miss out on their growth and have your savings eroded by inflation.

The reality is most super funds cannot achieve this performance nor capture the upside potential - "they're dreaming" - as Darryl Kerrigan once put it.

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According to SuperRatings, the average return for the 50 largest "balanced" super funds over the last five years is 1 per cent per year. Over a 10-year period it averages 5.1 per cent per year. Across all types of super funds (except self managed), returns have averaged 3.3 per cent per year - or just 0.3 per cent above inflation. Dreaming indeed. The problem is further compounded because the averages hide the inevitable volatility that comes with "investing" in growth assets.

In your writer's previous report, Time to rethink your super,  (also available here as "Tackle Risk for Super Returns"), we looked at a different technique to overcome the dual problem of underperformance and volatility - the barbell portfolio.

First, your super is for saving, not speculating, and should mainly comprise solid investments like bonds, term deposits and annuities. Secondly, you should still have exposure to growth assets, but you must consider the risk before the potential return as the long term implications are devastating to your retirement savings.

The tortoise and the hare

Here's the reason why the downside matters more than the upside. Imagine two portfolios - the tortoise and the hare. The hare is your typical "balanced" fund, with over 70 per cent assets in shares and property, the rest in cash and fixed interest. Over a thirty-year period, the hare will experience some "fast" years, earning well over 10 per cent, and occasionally will fall into a puddle, earning nothing or losing a few per cent.

Not so often, by not looking where he is going, he falls into a deep hole, losing 20-40 per cent of the portfolio. He climbs out and sets off again. The Tortoise takes a different path, avoiding the holes and puddles, plodding along, always earning between 4 and 8 per cent year in, year out. But “on average” the hare should win, right?

The reality is the hare hasn't understood time and opportunity cost. To get back to even after a 20 per cent loss - a common occurrence in the last 4 years - requires a 25 per cent positive return. Even if he has successive 10 per cent returns each year, it will take him 8 years in a row to catch up to the hare earning a positive 6 per cent year in, year out. And that's without falling into any more puddles or holes.

Compare the funds

So let's compare some real world performance. Assume a starting balance of $100,000 in 2001 in a balanced and a barbell portfolio, where the latter has a 90/10 weighting of “investment” and “speculative” assets. The former will comprise a third cash, two thirds bonds, the latter only an Australian share index fund.

The real potential behind the barbell portfolio is twofold. First, it outperforms the balanced fund by 23 per cent, by averaging a little more than the required 6 per cent a year (3 per cent plus inflation). More importantly, it smoothes the returns by limiting the downside volatility, with a maximum drawdown of 2 per cent, compared to almost 13 per cent for the balanced fund (remember this is an average over a 12 month period.

In reality, the typical balance fund dropped over 20 per cent in value during the GFC. Not a good time to retire.)

This absolute return allows peace of mind for retirees and avoids the “hare” problem for accumulators. How to do it

The basic barbell portfolio described above can be easily constructed with the required investment options available within the most popular retail and industry super funds.

Remember the allocation, the vast majority of your fund should be in secure "investment" assets with almost zero potential for drawdown or loss of capital. Most funds have a "cash" option and a "bonds" or "fixed interest" option available. Consider a bias to the latter, e.g up to 60 per cent in bonds, as the top 25 diversified fixed-interest funds have returned at least 5 per cent per annum over the last 10 years. Some funds will even have a "term deposit" option, which could return as much as 6 per cent per annum.

The speculative side of the barbell - no more than 10 per cent - would be best allocated to Australian shares only. I would not consider international shares, due to the structural inability of fund managers to provide even a positive return over a 10-year period. A small amount in property or infrastructure - even up to 5 per cent - could be considered due to the income stream, but remember these assets are extremely risky and illiquid.

Don't forget security - the bar that binds the two together. In a non-DIY fund, the best security asset is life and disability insurance where the costs are usually much cheaper due to the group discounts within the fund.

Conclusion

Relying on market volatility and traditional asset allocation to provide the return in your super has been shown as unreliable even in the biggest bull market in history.

Regardless of market conditions, either blue skies or impending doom, you need constant positive or “absolute” returns to both build and protect your precious retirement savings.

Chris Becker writes as The Prince at MacroBusiness. He is a full-time equities trader as well as a partner in Empire Investing, a private value investing company. The full MacroBusiness "The tortoise route to riches" report is available free at MacroBusiness, as is the "Tackle risk for super returns" report.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/tortoise-always-wins-in-super-race-20111123-1ntod.html#ixzz1eXhAAUP1

KL Kepong

KL Kepong 4Q net profit up 48% to RM460m, FY RM1.57b
Written by Joseph Chin of theedgemalaysia.com
Wednesday, 23 November 2011 17:25


KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 23): KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BHD [] (KLK) reported a 48% increase in earnings to RM460.61 million in the fourth quarter ended Sept 30, 2011 from RM311.04 million, boosted by the PLANTATION []s sector and disposal of an associate, Esterol.

It said on Wednesday its revenue increased by 48.9% to RM2.999 billion from RM2.014 billion while its earnings per share were 43.25 sen compared with 29.21 sen. It declared an interim dividend of 70 sen per share versus 45 sen.

“The group's pre-tax profit increased 38.3% to RM599.2 million. The current quarter's result was boosted by the non-recurring surplus of RM200.6 million arising from the disposal of an associate, Esterol, whilst last year's quarter had a writeback of RM76.0 million on the allowance for diminution in value of investment,” it said.

KLK said the plantations sector recorded a 27.7% improvement in profit to RM447.5 million due to better selling prices of commodities and increase in fresh fruit bunches production despite higher production cost and FRS 139's fair value loss of RM27.1 million.

However, the manufacturing sector's performance was adversely impacted by the uncertainties and concerns over the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and global macroeconomic environment which had eroded customers' buying confidence and disrupted the supply and demand pattern.

This sector reported a loss of RM49.3 million (4QFY2010: profit RM26.1 million) with substantial stocks write-down as a result of falling prices and FRS 139's fair value loss of RM33.9 million.

For the financial year ended Sept 30, its earnings jumped 55.2% to RM1.571 billion from RM1.021 billion while its revenue reported a 43.4% increase to RM10.743 billion from RM7.490 billion.

KLK said the Group's pre-tax profit for the financial year at RM2.066 billion had surpassed the preceding year's profit by 49.4%.

The increase in profit was due to a 41.9% surge in plantations profit to RM1.596 billion, driven by strong selling prices of commodities which had over-shadowed the impact of higher production cost.

KLK said the manufacturing sector reported a 40.1% increase in profit to RM201.9 million despite the loss suffered in the fourth quarter.

“The results for the year had benefited from added capacities coming on-stream as well as relatively strong business environment in the earlier part of the year,” it said

It also said retailing profit fell 33.6% to RM18.4 million due to narrower margins and increase in operating cost.

The disposals of two associates, Esterol and Barry Callebaut Malaysia Sdn Bhd (BCM), had generated a total surplus of RM244.0 million.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/196680-flash-kl-kepong-4q-net-profit-up-48-to-rm460m-fy-rm157b.html


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Saturday November 19, 2011

KLK plans downstream and upstream expansion



PETALING JAYA: KL Kepong Bhd (KLK) planned to expand its downstream and upstream business segments for its palm oil businesses amidst sustained palm oil prices above RM3,000.

The company which derives 80% of its net profits from upstream business planned to increase its landbank for oil palm estates from 250,000 ha to 300,000 ha in Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, South America and Africa.

“In the upstream we are a price taker. We also don't want to be too dependent on our upstream that's why when prices drop we have our downstream business and our property division which will help us to sustain any downturn in commodity prices,” said chief executive officer Tan Sri Lee Oi Hian yesterday.

KLK is also planning to build another palm oil mill in Indonesia which would cost about RM120mil in three years in addition to the three mills being built there presently.

“The three new palm oil mills in Indonesia are under construction to meet the growing fresh fruit bunches production from fast maturing areas,” group plantations director Roy K. C. Lim told a media briefing here yesterday.

The refineries in Indonesia have passed the plannnig stage and were about to commence consruction.

KLK had upgraded its two palm oil mills in the country, increasing the capacity in one of the mills.

In the oleochemicals business segment, KLK planned to expand its alcohol plant in Westport, Port Klang which was recently moved from Singapore to Malaysia.

“We have a gearing ratio which is very low with essentially good cashflows and this would give us space to fund our expansion,” Lee said.

“So far fundamentals look good, despite the economic problems in Europe.

Most people are still quite friendly towards palm oil so let's hope that the situation would be able to stay this way. It is a very good basis to believe palm oil prices would stay above RM3,000,” Lee said.

The company's CPO yields per mature ha had dropped in its latest 3QFY2011 to 3.4 tonnes per ha from 4.7 tonnes per ha in FY2010 ended Sept 30, 2010.

However, costs of producing FFB had been on a rising trend since FY2007 to RM200 per tonne in its 3QFY2011.

The company said that it expected to reduce this figure by increasing productivity and efficiency of its manpower.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2011/11/19/business/9934512&sec=business

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Published: Friday November 18, 2011 MYT 2:23:00 PM

KLK plans expansion for plantation business


KUALA LUMPUR: Amidst sustained palm oil prices above the RM3,000 level, Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd is planning expansion in both its downstream and upstream plantation businesses.

The company said today that it aims to increase its landbank for plantations from 250,000 hectares to 300,000 hectares in countries not limited to Indonesia only.

It also plans to build another palm oil mill in Indonesia, in addition to the three that are already under construction there presently.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2011/11/18/business/20111118143630&sec=business

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KLK

Market Watch Recent Financial Results Announcement Date   Financial Yr. End   Qtr   Period End   Revenue RM '000   Profit/Lost RM'000   EPS   Amended 23-Nov-11      30-Sep-11      4   30-Sep-11      2,999,658      475,870      43.25       - 16-Aug-11      30-Sep-11      3   30-Jun-11      2,952,257      455,391      40.64       - 25-May-11      30-Sep-11      2   31-Mar-11      2,368,357      396,818      35.10       - 23-Feb-11      30-Sep-11      1   31-Dec-10      2,422,980      317,452      28.56       - ttm-EPS 147.55 sen Price $21.38 Trailing PE 14.5x

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Batu Kawan

Market Watch
Recent Financial Results

Announcement
Date   Financial
Yr. End   Qtr   Period End   Revenue
RM '000   Profit/Lost
RM'000   EPS   Amended
23-Nov-11      30-Sep-11      4   30-Sep-11      74,253      239,804      56.44       -
16-Aug-11      30-Sep-11      3   30-Jun-11      72,941      212,262      50.33       -
25-May-11      30-Sep-11      2   31-Mar-11      69,776      186,717      44.12       -
23-Feb-11      30-Sep-11      1   31-Dec-10      66,170      148,540      35.41       -

ttm-EPS  186.3 sen
Price $16.20
Trailing PE 8.7 x

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2445.kl KLK
1899.kl Batu Kawan

Comparing share price appreciation of KLK and Batu Kawan

Ignore shares and get poorer.

Diary of a private investor: ignore shares and get poorer
Our private investor is back - and he says that savers who are prepared to take some risk will prosper.

Despite the Gulf of Mexico oil spill last year, BP shares are doing well Photo: PA

By James Batholomew

10:51AM BST 06 Jun 2011

After the glorious year of 2010 - for the stock market anyway - this year has, so far, been a damp squib. First it was up, then it relapsed, then it rose once more before retreating again. As I write, it is within 2pc of where it started.

As Lady Bracknell said in The Importance of Being Earnest, "this shilly-shallying is absurd". Which is it to be? Will shares finally rise or fall?

On the bearish side, I'm told, by people who ought to know, that Greece is bust, whatever the politicians say. Another well-placed individual has the same opinion about Ireland.

If either is right, shares could fall heavily on the day the default is announced. Some people say "it is already in the price", but I doubt it.

On the other hand, shares still look good value. I own some in BP which, at 458p, stands at a mere 6.8 times forecast earnings for 2011.

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Its adventures in Russia do worry me a bit and, of course, the shadow of the disaster in the Gulf of Mexico still hangs over it. But rarely in its history have the shares been treated with such disdain.

Professional and lifelong investors are now generally back in the stock market. But many private individuals are still holding back.

Over the past few years, I've talked to quite a few people about their investments and found they can be divided into four sorts.

The first thinks shares are too risky. They remain almost entirely in cash. In some cases they have good reason. Some have a limited amount of money and a very specific thing - such as school fees - which they want to be sure they can pay.

Others argue that shares are unpredictable and they don't know anything about them. Better to keep the money safe in the bank. These people have their reasons. But over the long term, I've seen so many of this sort, who were once well off, become very gradually much less so. I knew the daughter of a Seventies multi-millionaire who inherited her fair share. She kept the money in a building society and is now, frankly, just getting by. It's frustrating. She could have stayed rich.

The second group consists of those who have made quite a bit of money but have not had much time or interest in managing it. They were then persuaded by persistent, charming salesmen to invest in certain funds. For these salesmen, nothing was too much trouble. They visited them in their homes. They brought wonderful, sophisticated brochures and "personalised" recommendations.

The untold story which the salesmen never quite got around to explaining in detail was the full extent of the commissions and expenses involved. The people in this group have generally had a pretty thin time of it over the past dozen years.

The FTSE 100 is still rather lower than it was in January 2000, and all those commissions have eaten a substantial hole in the dividend income.

The third sort are thrill-seekers. To be honest, I know only one person in this group. There was a time when he got very excited about shares and was dealing on an hourly basis, following recommendations from a broker. After initial success, he lost a bundle and decided to give it all up.

Long-term, persistent portfolio investors are the fourth group. They have built up experience and understanding. They tend to have done best.

But where does that leave the sort of person who has other things to do and does not want to spend time building up experience in shares?

My flippant answer would be "poorer". You make your choices and live with the consequences. Trying to be more helpful, let me suggest this: how about putting, say, 15pc of free cash in a selection of lowest-possible-cost tracker funds? And then increasing the amount each year up to a level with which you are comfortable?

This way, you will not give away a fortune in commission. You will keep most of the dividends. You will not have to worry about selecting individual shares. And you are likely - though not guaranteed - to be richer in 10 years than otherwise. You could go for a mixture of, say, half of the invested amount in a FTSE 250 shares fund, a fifth in a Far East fund, another fifth in a US fund and a 10th in an emerging markets fund.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/shares/8558975/Diary-of-a-private-investor-ignore-shares-and-get-poorer.html

Equity investors: Don't panic!

This week has heralded another sharp sell off in the stock market – but whatever private investors do they must not panic.

When there is a mass sell-off of assets everything falls. Photo: AP

By Garry White

5:02PM GMT 21 Nov 2011

Of course, the situation in Europe is serious – with debt concerns moving from Greece to Italy to Spain and now France. the US deficit is also of serious concern. However, events currently unfolding are not the end of the world. Equity markets are likely to recover from this crisis over the next few years as the global economy improves, but there will be plenty of pain on the way.

When there is a mass sell-off of assets everything falls – the good assets and the bad. Investing is a long term affair and panic selling could means good investments are sold when they are cheap. This defeats the main investment principles of buying low and selling high.

Of course, the value of an asset is only what someone else is prepared to pay for it – so although shares look cheap at the moment they could get cheaper in the short term. However, returns from the stock market over time – particularly when dividends are reinvested – are still likely to mean it is worth staying in the market.

There’s also the fact that panic selling can crystallise tax liabilities to consider.

The truth is, now is actually a great time to buy quality companies at what could be a bargain prices, as long as you have a sensible investment horizon. And are brave enough.  

Invest at the point of maximum pessimism." This is a famous quote from legendary investor John Templeton, who was one of the last century's most successful contrarian investors - hoovering up shares during the Great Depression. He was the founder of fund management group Templeton.

Conversely, the theory goes, you should sell at the point of maximum optimism.

It is important to remember that you will never time a market bottom or market top accurately. That's why Questor thinks the best investment strategy is to continue to drip-feed funds into the market – and this is especially the case when markets are falling.

This strategy is called pound-cost averaging and it makes good sense for investors with an appropriate time frame.

Although the sharp falls seen recently in equities is a concern – it is not a reason to panic. Sell in haste today and you may regret your decision in two year’s time.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/questor/8904859/Equity-investors-Dont-panic.html

International Stock Markets (52-week performance)

International Stock Markets

• AMERICAS
• EUROPE
• ASIA/PACIFIC
• MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA

Key Indexes	At 8:46 PM ET At least 15-minute delay	Change	% change	1 month	1 year	LowHigh52-week
Nikkei 225 JAPAN	8,314.74	–33.53	–0.40%	–4.20%	–17.80%
Closed for holiday, prices at close 11/22/2011
Hang Seng HONG KONG	17,902.02	–349.57	–1.92%	–0.69%	–21.81%
Shanghai Composite CHINA	2,415.36	+2.74	+0.11%	+4.23%	–14.60%
All Ordinaries AUSTRALIA	4,161.40	–42.77	–1.02%	–1.00%	–11.02%
NSE 50 INDIA	4,812.35	+34.00	+0.71%	–4.70%	–19.93%
At close 9:01 PM ET 11/22/2011
STI SINGAPORE	2,679.55	–37.65	–1.39%	–1.21%	–14.29%
KOSPI KOREA	1,826.28	+6.25	+0.34%	–0.66%	–5.32%
BSE 30 INDIA	16,065.42	+119.32	+0.75%	–4.29%	–19.50%
TSE 50 TAIWAN	4,797.27	–72.82	–1.50%	–3.73%	–16.04%
KLSE Composite MALAYSIA	1,428.63	–9.36	–0.65%	–0.71%	–3.96%

Coming Market Holidays

http://markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/worldmarkets/worldmarkets.asp

Warren Buffet's strategy on technical analysis

Warren Buffet's strategy on technical analysis
Apr 05 '00

After much research and experience in investing I've discovered a simple strategy which works very well for profitable investing. It's a composite of Charles Schwab's and Warren Buffet's strategy. As you may know, Warren Buffet started with a little investment decades ago and now he's the third richest man in the world with over $30,000,000,000 in stock in the company he built. Charles Schwab is the genius who began the most successful off-price brokerage in the world. Here's what they say about investing and technical analysis:

Rule number one: Buy a company you'd be willing to hold for a lifetime.

When you put your money in a stock, you become an owner of that firm. You're essentially buying part of it and you reap the profit from the shares you buy in terms of earnings per share. Then the company may pay out those earnings per share in dividends or invest back into the company for growth. Make sure that you're buying a firm that you can depend on, even when the market is down. Investing isn't about the quick in-and-out schemes that lose most day-traders money. That's called gambling. Investing is putting your trust and your resources into a firm which you're willing to commit your hard-earned money to. This leads to my next point.

Rule number two: Ignore technical analysis.

Technical analysis is used to predict whether or not a stock will go up or down in the short term. Some people think that they can ignore the fundamentals of the companies they buy based on technical analysis and end up losing large amounts of money. Yet, no responsible financial advisor would recommend or practice buying based solely or largely on technical analysis. That practice is used for what I defined to be gambling. Essentially relying on technical analysis involves looking at the volume of trading, advances/declines in the share price, and trying to determine whether or not the price will continue upward or reverse. For example, a lot of people buy or sell based on momentum. They jump on the bandwagon or abandon ship with the rest of the crowd. Yet, these fluctuations based on the herd mentality do less for those playing on technical analysis and more for the investor who looks for good value in shares. For, often people selling on technical analysis overshoot and cause a stock's value to be worth less than its fair value. Thanks to people who get burned on these losses, investors find unique opportunities to snatch up great comanies at bargain-basement prices.

Rule number three: Focus on the Fundamentals.

You cannot accurately predict the short term price fluctuations of stocks. Let me repeat myself: You CANNOT accurately predict the short term price fluctuations of stocks. If you could, those stock experts working at Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs wouldn't be working. Believe me: they've got a lot more experience than you or I do, and they're not gambling. So, instead of "investing on luck" or momentum, take control and do your research. Find out whether the company is consistantly outpacing the industry. See what the price to earnings ratio is and whether it's being undervalued. Find out whether earnings per share has been increasing or decreasing. See what the financial community thinks by examining analyst opinions covering the firm. All this information is easily accessable over the internet and free of charge. IF you do your homework your gains will be all but certain OVER TIME and you'll feel satisfied and proud with your investment choices. You may even become attached to your company and become well acquainted with it.

Rule number four: Buy long term

Besides your liklihood of making money going up, there are tax advantages to holding stocks long term. For one thing, if you simply hold onto your stock, you won't be taxed until you pull out and your investment can continue to compound, without erosion, until you sell. But, if you constantly buy and sell, then you're taxed on all your gains and you don't get to pay the lower capital gains tax. Instead, it's taxed as regular income, which is a higher tax rate. For most daytraders, tax erosion is one of the biggest problems with making any profit. But, if you do sell make sure it's because your company has been consistently underperforming. This leads to the next point:

Rule number five: Buy low sell high.

Lots of people buy stocks and when the price dips they get scared and sell. Other people see the price of their stock go up and buy more. But, this seems like reverse logic, right? If you own a good company, short-cited investors can drive down a stock price temporarily because of one below-expected earnings report or a bit of bad news. Let these be times for you to take advantage of other people's hysteria and buy at an attractive price.


Be smart in your investment decisions. Warren Buffet didn't find himself where he is today by buying on momentum or following technical analysis. Instead, it took research, patience, and commitment. If you can commit yourself to these same principles, you too will enjoy financial success.

http://www.epinions.com/finc-review-1935-D65AB19-38EAE41E-prod2