Secrets of Long-Term Investing Revealed

“........... long-term investing isn’t about having a great system, or a superior analytic intellect, or better access to information, or even the best advice money can buy.  Long-term investing is about character, about depth of vision and the cultivation of patience, about who you are and who you’ve made yourself to be”

The Single Best Investment, page 149

What is long-term investing? 

Long-term investing is the process of buying and holding investment securities you believe will compound investor wealth indefinitely into the future.

Why You Need to Become a Long-Term Investor

There are 3 good reasons to become a long-term investor:

1. It reduces fees
2. It requires less of your time
3. It is highly effective

Long-term investing is so successful is because of its beneficial psychological ramifications.  

If you invest for the long-term, you will focus on businesses with strong and durable competitive advantages that have a chance of compounding your wealth for decades, not days.

Long-Term Investing Strategy

The strategy long-term investors follow is straight-forward:

• Identify companies with durable competitive advantages
• Be sure these companies are in slow changing industries
• Invest in these companies when trading at fair or better prices

Three favorite slow changing industries are:

• Insurance
• Health care
• Food and beverage

To find if a company is trading at ‘fair or better prices’, a few metrics are important.

• If the company is trading below the market price-to-earnings ratio, its peer’s price-to-earnings ratio, and its 10 year historical average price-to-earnings ratio, it is likely undervalued.  
• These 3 relative price-to-earnings ratios will help to paint a picture of if a stock is ‘in favor’ or ‘out of favor’.  

As a general rule, it’s best to buy great businesses at a discount – when they are out of favor.

Another good metric to look at for determining value is a company’s expected payback period.

• Payback period is calculated using an expected growth rate and a stock’s current dividend yield.  
• The higher the dividend yield and expected growth rate, the lower the payback period.  
• The payback period is the number of years it will take an investment to pay you back.  
• Obviously, the lower the payback period, the better.

Long-Term Investing Examples

Warren Buffett’s investment history is perhaps the best example of long-term investments.  Three of his longest running investments are below:

• Wells Fargo (WFC) – 25% of his portfolio – First purchased in 1989
• Coca-Cola (KO) – 15% of portfolio – First purchased in 1988
• American Express (AXP) – 11% of portfolio – First purchased in 1964

All of these three investments are 25 years old or older.

The American Express investment is especially impressive.  Warren Buffett has held American Express for over 50 years!

Stocks for Long-Term Investors

• Find high quality dividend growth stocks suitable for long-term investors.
• Identify high quality dividend growth stocks trading at fair or better prices.
• Have a brief list of blue-chip stocks worthy of long-term investors that are currently trading at fair or better prices.

For example:  One for each sector of the economy is shown:

• Basic Materials: Phillips 66 (PSX)
• Consumer Goods: General Mills (GIS)
• Financial: Aflac (AFL)
• Health Care: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
• Industrial Goods: Deere & Company (DE)
• Service: W.W. Grainger (GWW)
• Technologies: Verizon Wireless (VZ)
• Utilities: Southern Company (SO)

Long-Term Investing Is Difficult

Long-term investing is not easy.

It is psychologically difficult to hold a stock when its price is declining.

Holding through price declines takes real conviction (remember the marriage analogy?).

The nearly infinite liquidity of the stock market combined with the ease of trading makes selling stocks something you can do on a whim.

But just because you can, doesn’t mean you should.

The constant stream of stock ticker price movements also coerces individual investors into trading unnecessarily.

• Does it really matter that a stock is up 1% today, or down 0.3% this hour?  
• Have the long-term prospects of the business really changed?  

Probably not.

To compound these problems even further, the financial media promotes rapid action.

• To garner views and attention, financial pundits have become LOUD.  
• They are always promoting the next great stock to buy, or which one MUST be sold.

The Cure:  Watch Dividends, Not Stock Prices

Stock prices lie.

• They signal a business is in steep decline, when it isn’t.  
• They say a company is worth 3x as much as it was 3 years ago, when the underlying business has only grown 50%.  
• Stock prices only represent the perception of other investors.  
• They do not and cannot show the real total returns an investment will generate.

Instead of watching stock price, avoid them completely.

Look at dividend income instead.

• Dividend do not lie.  
• A business simply cannot pay rising dividends for any protracted period of time without the underlying business growing as well.

Dividends are much less volatile than stock prices.

• Dividends reflect the real earnings power of the business.  
• As a result, it makes sense to track dividend income rather than stock price movement.  
• After all, don’t you care what your investment pays you more than what people think about your investment?

The Difference Between Buy & Hold and Long-Term Investing

There is a difference between buy and hold (sometimes called buy and pray) investing and long-term investing.

Buy and hold investing typically means buying and holding no matter what.

That’s not what long-term investing is about.

Sometimes, there is a very good reason to sell a stock.  It just happens much less frequently than most people believe.

Two reasons to sell a stock:

1. If it cuts or eliminates its dividend payments
2. If it becomes extremely overvalued

The first reason to sell is intuitive.

• When a stock cuts its dividend, it violates your reason for investing. 

The second reason to sell is in the case of an extreme overvaluation.

• I’m not talking about when a stock moves from a price-to-earnings ratio of 15 to 25.  
• I’m talking about when a stock is trading for a ridiculous price-to-earnings ratio; something like 40+.  
• An important caveat to remember is to always use adjusted earnings for this calculation.  
• If a cyclical stock’s earnings temporarily fall from $5.00 per share to $1.00 per share, and the price-to-earnings ratio jumps from 15 to 75, don’t sell.  
• In this instance, the price-to-earnings ratio is artificially inflated because it is not reflecting the true earnings power of the business.  

Selling due to extreme valuations should only occur very rarely, during extreme bouts of irrational market exuberance.

Final Thoughts

Investing for the long run is simple, but not easy.

It is psychologically difficult.

The amazing success records of investors who believe a long-term outlook is critical for favorable investment returns lends credibility to the idea of long-term investing.

The financial media does not typically discuss the merits of long-term investing because it does not generate fees for the financial industry, and it does not lend itself to flashy headlines or catchy sound bites.

Invest in high quality dividend growth stocks for the long-run.

• High quality dividend growths stocks with strong competitive advantages offer individual investors the best available mix of current income, growth, and stability as compared to other investment strategies and styles.

Long-term investing requires conviction, perseverance, and the ability to do nothing when others are being very active with their portfolios.

Do you have what it takes to invest for the long run?

Read:
http://www.smarteranalyst.com/2015/11/16/secrets-of-long-term-investing-revealed/

http://www.amazon.com/The-Single-Best-Investment-Creating/dp/0965175081/ref=cm_cr_pr_product_top?ie=UTF8  (Click on the book to get a sample of the pages within.)

THE 10 BEST INVESTORS IN THE WORLD

Warren Buffett
Charlie Munger
Joel Greenblatt
John Templeton
Benjamin Graham
Philip Fisher
Mohnish Pabrai
Walter Schloss
Peter Lynch
Seth Klarman



Warren Buffett (1930)

"Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down."

Warren Buffett, born on August 30, 1930 in Omaha, Nebraska, is known as the world's best investor of all time. He is among the top three richest people in the world for several years in a row now, thanks to the consistent, mind-boggling returns he managed to earn with his investment vehicle Berkshire Hathaway. The funny thing is that Buffett does not even care that much about money. Investing is simply something he enjoys doing. Buffett still owns the same house he bought back in 1958, hates expensive suits, and still drives his secondhand car.

Investment philosophy:
 Focuses on individual companies, rather than macro-economic factors
 Invests in companies with sustainable competitive advantages
 Prefers becoming an expert on a few companies over major diversification
 Does not believe in technical analysis
 Bases his investment decisions on the operational performance of the underlying businesses
 Holds on to stocks for an extremely long period, some stocks he never sells
 Uses price fluctuations to its advantage by buying when undervalued and selling when overvalued with respect to intrinsic value
 Puts much emphasis on the importance of shareholder friendly, capable management
 Beliefs margin of safety are the three most important words in investing


Charlie Munger (1924)

"All intelligent investing is value investing — acquiring more than you are paying for."

Charlie Munger is vice-chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett's investment vehicle. Even though Buffett and Munger were born in Omaha, Nebraska, they did not meet until 1959. After graduating from Harvard Law School, Munger started a successful law firm which still exists today. In 1965 he started his own investment partnership, which returned 24.3% annually between 1965 and 1975, while the Dow Jones only returned 6.4% during the same period. In 1975 he joined forces with Warren Buffett, and ever since that moment Charlie Munger has played a massive role in the success of Berkshire Hathaway. While Buffett is extrovert and a pure investor, Munger is more introvert and a generalist with a broad range of interests. The fact that they differ so much from each other is probably why they complement each other so well.

Investment philosophy:
 Convinced Buffett that stocks trading at prices above their book value can still be interesting, as long as they trade below their intrinsic value
 Has a multidisciplinary approach to investing which he also applies to other parts of his life ("Know a little about a lot")
 Reads books continuously about varied topics like math, history, biology, physics, economy, psychology, you name it!
 Focuses on the strength and sustainability of competitive advantages
 Sticks to what he knows, in other words, companies within his "circle of competence"
 Beliefs it is better to hold on to cash than to invest it in mediocre opportunities
 Says it is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong with your predictions


Joel Greenblatt (1957)

“Choosing individual stocks without any idea of what you’re looking for is like running through a dynamite factory with a burning match. You may live, but you’re still an idiot.”

Joel Greenblatt definitely knows how to invest. In 1985 he started his investment fund Gotham Capital, ten years later, in 1995, he had earned an incredible average return of 50% per year for its investors. He decided to pay his investors their money back and continued investing purely with his own capital. Many people know Joel Greenblatt for his investment classic The Little Book That Beats The Market* and his website magicformulainvesting.com. Greenblatt is also an adjunct-professor at the Columbia Business School.

Investment philosophy:
 Buys good stocks when they are on sale
 Prefers highly profitable companies
 Uses the Normalized Earnings Yield to assess whether a company is cheap
 Beliefs thorough research does more to reduce risk than excessive diversification (he often has no more than 8 companies in his portfolio)
 Largely ignores macro-economical developments and short term price movements


John Templeton (1912 -2008) 

"If you want to have a better performance than the crowd, you must do things differently from the crowd."

The late billionaire and legendary investor, John Templeton, was born in 1912 as a member of a poor family in a small village in Tennessee. He was the first of his village to attend University, and he made them proud by finishing economics at Yale and later a law degree at Oxford. Just before WWII, Templeton was working at the predecessor of the now infamous Merrill Lynch investment bank. While everyone was highly pessimistic during these times, Templeton was one of the few who foresaw that the war would give an impulse to the economy, rather than grind it to a halt. He borrowed $10.000 from his boss and invested this money in each of the 104 companies on the US stock market which traded at a price below $1. Four years later he had an average return of 400%! In 1937, in times of the Great Depression, Templeton started his own investment fund and several decennia later he managed the funds of over a million people. In 2000 he shorted 84 technology companies for $200.000, he called it his "easiest profit ever". The beauty is that despite all his wealth, John Templeton had an extremely modest lifestyle and gave much of it away to charitable causes.

Investment philosophy:
 Contrarian, always going against the crowd and buying at the point of maximum pessimism
 Has a global investment approach and looks for interesting stocks in every country, but preferably countries with limited inflation, high economical growth, and a movement toward liberalization and privatization
 Has a long term approach, he holds on to stocks for 6 to 7 years on average
 Focuses on extremely cheap stocks, not necessarily on "good" stocks with a sustainable competitive advantage, like Warren Buffett
 Beliefs in patience, an open-mind, and a skeptical attitude against conventional wisdom
 Warns investors for popular stocks everyone is buying
 Focuses on absolute performance rather than relative performance
 A strong believer in the wealth creating power of the free market economy



Benjamin Graham (1894 - 1976) 

"Price is what you pay, value is what you get."

Columbia Business School professor Benjamin Graham is often called "The Father of Value Investing". He was also Warren Buffett's mentor and wrote the highly influential book The Intelligent Investor, which Buffett once described as the best book on investing ever written. Graham was born in England in 1894, but he and his family moved to the United States just one year later. His official name was Grossbaum, but the family decided to change this German sounding name to Graham during the time of the First World War. Graham was a brilliant student and got offered several teaching jobs on the University, but instead he decided to work for a trading firm and would later start his own investment fund. Due to the use of leverage, his fund lost a whopping 75% of its value between 1929 and 1932, but Graham managed to turn things around and managed to earn a 17% annualized return for the next 30 years. This was way higher than the average stock market return during that same period. In total, Graham taught economics for 28 years on Columbia Business School.

Investment philosophy:
 Focuses more on quantitative, rather than qualitative data
 First step is to look for stocks trading below 2/3rd of net current asset value (NCAV)*
 Prefers companies which pay dividends
 Looks for companies with a consistently profitable history
 Companies should not have too much long term debt
 Earnings should be growing
 Is willing to pay no more than 15 times the average earnings over the past three years
 Diversifies to spread the risk of individual positions
 Emphasizes the importance of a significant Margin of Safety
 Profits from irrational behavior caused by the manic-depressive "Mr. Market"
 Warns that emotions like fear and greed should play no role in your investment decisions

*NCAV = current assets - total liabilities



Philip Fisher (1907 - 2004) 

"I don't want a lot of good investments; I want a few outstanding ones."

Philip Fisher became famous for successfully investing in growth stocks. After studying economics degree at Stanford University, Fisher worked as an investment analyst before starting his own firm, Fisher & Co. This was in 1931, during the times of the Great Depression. Fisher's insights have had a significant influence on both Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. Philip Fisher is also author of the powerful investment book Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits, which has a quote from Buffett on its cover which reads: "I am an eager reader of whatever Phil has to say, and I recommend him to you."

Investment philosophy:
 Dislikes technical analysis
 Does not belief in "market timing"
 Prefers a concentrated portfolio with around 10 to 12 stocks
 Emphasizes the importance of honest and able management
 Beliefs you should only invest in companies which you can understand
 Warns that you should not follow the masses, but instead have patience and think for yourself
 Companies should have a strong business model, be innovative, highly profitable, and preferably a market leader
 Has a focus on growth potential of both companies and industries
 Buys companies at "reasonable prices" but does not specify what "reasonable" is to him
 A true "buy & hold" investor who often holds on to stocks for decades
 Beliefs great companies purchased at reasonable prices and held for a long time are better investments than reasonable companies bought at great prices
 Has a "scuttlebutt" approach to doing research by asking questions to customers, employees, competitors, analysts, suppliers, and management to find out more about the competitive position of a company and its management
 Only sells when a company starts experiencing issues with its business model, competitive positioning, or management



Mohnish Pabrai (1964)

“Heads, I win; tails, I don’t lose much. “

Mohnish Pabrai has once been heralded as "the new Warren Buffett" by the prestigious American business magazine Forbes. While this seems like big words, you might start to understand why Forbes wrote this when you look at the performance of Pabrai's hedge funds, Pabrai Investment Funds, which have outperformed all of the major indices and 99% of managed funds. At least, that was before his funds suffered significant losses during the recent financial crisis because of their exposure to financial institutions and construction companies. Still, there is much we can learn from his low-risk, high-reward approach to investing, which he describes in his brilliant book The Dhandho Investor: The Low-Risk Value Method to High Returns.

Investment philosophy:
 Points out that there is a big difference between risk and uncertainty
 Looks for low-risk, high-uncertainty opportunities with a significant upside potential
 Only practices minor diversification and usually has around 10 stocks in his portfolio
 Beliefs stock prices are merely "noise"
 Used to buy reasonable companies at great prices, but now wants to focus more on quality companies with a sustainable competitive advantage and shareholder friendly management



Walter Schloss (1916 - 2012) 

"If a stock is cheap, I start buying." While Walter Schloss might not be the most well-known investor of all time, he was definitely one of the best investors of all time. Just like Buffett, Walter Schloss was a student of Benjamin Graham. Schloss is also mentioned as one of the "Super Investors" by Buffett in his must-read essay The Super Investors of Graham-And-Doddsville. An interesting fact about Walter Schloss is that he never went to college. Instead, he took classes taught by Benjamin Graham after which he started working for the Graham-Newton Partnership. In 1955 Schloss started his own value investing fund, which he ran until 2000. During his 45 years managing the fund, Schloss earned an impressive 15.3% return versus a return of 10% for the S&P500 during that same period. Just like Warren Buffett and John Templeton, Walter Schloss was known to be frugal. Schloss died of leukemia in 2012 at age 95.

Investment philosophy:
 Practiced the pure Benjamin Graham style of value investing based on purchasing companies below NCAV
 Generally buys "cigar-butt" companies, or in other words companies in distress which are therefore trading at bargain prices
 Regularly used the Value Line Investment Survey to find attractive stocks
 Minimizes risk by requiring a significant Margin of Safety before investing
 Focuses on cheap stocks, rather than on the performance of the underlying business
 Diversified significantly and has owned around 100 stocks at a time
 Keeps an open mind and even sometimes shorts stocks, like he did with Yahoo and Amazon just before the Dot-Com crash
 Likes stocks which have a high percentage of insider ownership and which pay a dividend
 Is not afraid to hold cash
 Prefers companies which have tangible assets and little or no long-term debt 10



Peter Lynch (1944)

"Everyone has the brain power to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach."

Peter Lynch holds a degree in Finance as well as in Business Administration. After University, Lynch started working for Fidelity Investments as an investment analyst, where he eventually got promoted to director of research. In 1977, Peter Lynch was appointed as manager of the Magellan Fund, where he earned fabled returns until his retirement in 1990. Just before his retirement he published the bestseller One Up On Wall Street: How To Use What You Already Know To Make Money In The Market. Just as many of the other great investors mentioned in this document, Lynch took up philanthropy after he amassed his fortune.

Investment philosophy:
 You need to keep an open mind at all times, be willing to adapt, and learn from mistakes
 Leaves no stone unturned when it comes to doing due diligence and stock research
 Only invests in companies he understands
 Focuses on a company's fundamentals and pays little attention to market noise
 Has a long-term orientation
 Beliefs it is futile to predict interest rates and where the economy is heading
 Warns that you should avoid long shots
 Sees patience as a virtue when it comes to investing
 Emphasizes the importance of first-grade management
 Always formulates exactly why he wants to buy something before he actually buys something



Seth Klarman (1957) 

“Once you adopt a value-investment strategy, any other investment behavior starts to seem like gambling.“

Billionaire investor and founder of the Baupost Group partnership, Seth Klarman, grew up in Baltimore and graduated from both Cornell University (economics) and the Harvard Business School (MBA). In 2014 Forbes mentioned Seth Klarman as one of the 25 Highest-Earning hedge funds managers of 2013, a year in which he generated a whopping $350 million return. Klarman generally keeps a low profile, but in 1991 he wrote the wrote a book Margin of Safety: Risk Averse Investing Strategies for the Thoughtful Investor, which became an instant value investing classic. This book is now out of print, which has pushed the price up to over $1500 for a copy!

Investment philosophy:
 Is extremely risk-averse and focuses primarily on minimizing downside risk
 Does not just look for cheap stocks, but looks for the cheapest stocks of great companies
 Writes that conservative estimates, a significant margin of safety, and minor diversification allow investors to minimize risk despite imperfect information
 Warns that Wall Street, brokers, analysts, advisors, and even investment funds are not necessarily there to make you rich, but first and foremost to make themselves rich
 Often invests in "special situations", like stocks who filed for bankruptcy or risk-arbitrage situations
 Suggests to use several valuation methods simultaneously, since no method is perfect and since it is impossible to precisely calculate the intrinsic value of a company
 Is known for holding a big part of its portfolio in cash when no opportunities exist
 Beliefs investors should focus on absolute performance, rather than relative performance
 Emphasizes that you should find out not only if an asset is undervalued, but also why it is undervalued
 Is not afraid to bet against the crowd and oppose the prevailing investment winds
 Discourages investors to use stop-loss orders, because that way they can't buy more of a great thing when the price declines


Final words 

I hope you enjoyed reading how some the best investors in the world think about investing. You might have noticed some common themes, like buying companies for less than they are worth. And while they all practice this value investing approach, there are also notable differences between the strategies of these masters of investing. Where Warren Buffett runs a concentrated portfolio and focuses on "good" companies with a sustainable competitive advantage, Walter Schloss managed to earn impressive returns by simply buying a diverse set of extremely cheap companies. As Bruce Lee once said: "Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.”


https://www.valuespreadsheet.com/best.pdf

Experts reveal their investment tips for volatile times

'Don't panic': Experts reveal their investment tips for volatile times
January 21, 2016 - 9:53AM

China fears! Billions of dollars lost! Unprecedented volatility!

With investment markets in full blown panic mode, two listed investment company stalwarts are advising investors to keep cool heads as they wade through some of the most volatile times on record.

Tom Millner, chief executive of the $900 million BKI Investment Company, urges investors not to see red despite nearly $120 billion wiped off the Australian share market since the start of this year.

Around $120 billion has been wiped off local shares in 2016.

Ross Barker, managing director of the $6.2 billion Australian Foundation Investment Company (AFIC), believes now is a great time for investors to cherry pick where to put their funds.



These are their investment tips for navigating through the volatility in 2016:

1. Don't jump

"It's about buying good, quality companies that have strong businesses through cycles," Ross Barker, managing director of AFIC, said.

As the markets yo-yo with gains and losses throughout the trading day, Mr Barker has this to say to investors: "Don't panic."

Herd or mob mentality often permeates the market when investors dump stock in a state of panic, resulting in the overselling of companies.

Australian shares tumbled to a 2 1/2-year low on Wednesday as investors worry about China's growth prospects and slowing global commodity markets.

China's sharemarkets are as volatile as ever, but AFIC managing director Ross Barker believes the country's growth prospects are still strong.

"People get caught up in the mentality of the moment and they can often sell good things when they shouldn't be selling," Mr Barker said.

"There's concerns about China but we're still confident about the growth prospects of the economy."

2. Take your time

Blue-chip stocks such as BHP and Rio have been two of the biggest market casualites, shedding 40 per cent and 24 per cent respectively since last year.

"Be patient."

That is Mr Millner's response to the panicked selling since the start of this year that has spared few companies on the ASX.

Casualties such as BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, two of the largest resources stock on the sharemarket, have shed 40 per cent and 24 per cent respectively since last year.

But Mr Millner remains confident major Australian resources companies exposed to commodities such as oil, coal and copper in particular will bounce back as the imbalance between supply and demand is adjusted and the Australian dollar continues its descent.

He believes large resources companies may rebound over the next 12 to 18 months.

"It's just short term noise - so be patient," he said.

3. Buy quality

If a company is temptingly cheap but there's little basis for future growth, don't buy it.

"Stick with quality is my advice," Mr Barker said about picking stocks amid the market downturn.

Healthcare and diversified financial stocks are AFIC's picks thanks to an ageing population, while companies that source their revenue from overseas markets are also attractive.

The LIC has bought stakes in companies such as annuities giant Challenger and Macquarie Group.

"It's about buying good, quality companies that have strong businesses through cycles," he said.

4. Stay for the long haul

"We tend to try and hold a stock for at least 10 years," Mr Millner said.

While the thought of clinging to a company for a decade might not be every retail investor's cup of tea, holding a stock for a few years rather than dumping them at the first sign of trouble could yield strong growth potential.

Investors who bide their time and reap the dividends from blue chip companies or businesses with strong fundamentals will benefit through the volatility.

"We're in this for this for the long haul, and we do like the thematics of healthcare in particular with an ageing population."

BKI has been buying stock in Ramsay Healthcare and Sonic Healthcare as part of their long term investment strategy.

The company returned 10.9 per cent for the year to December, beating the S&P/ASX300 Index's 2.8 per cent over the same period.



Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/dont-panic-experts-reveal-their-investment-tips-for-volatile-times-20160120-gm9y62.html#ixzz3xpm6Yn2E

When to Buy? FIVE powerful forces having extremely powerful influence on the general level of stock prices either by influencing mass psychology or by direct economic operation..

All types of common stock investors might well keep one basic thought in mind; otherwise, the financial community's constant worry about and preoccupation with the danger of downswings in the business cycle will paralyze much worthwhile investment action.

This thought is the current phase of the business cycle is but one of at least five powerful forces.  

All of these forces, either by influencing mass psychology or by a direct economic operation, can have an extremely powerful influence on the general level of stock prices.

The other four influences are:

1. the trend of interest rates,
2. the overall governmental attitude toward investment and private enterprise,
3. the long-range trend to more and more inflation, and 
4. possibly most powerful of all - new inventions and techniques as they affect old industries.

These forces are seldom all pulling stock prices in the same direction at the same time.

Nor is any one of them necessarily going to be of vastly greater importance than any other for long periods of time.

#  So complex and diverse are these influences that the safest course to follow will be the one that at first glance appears to be the most risky or riskiest.

#  This is to take investment action when matters you know about a specific company appear to warrant such action.

#  Be undeterred by fears or hopes based on conjectures, or conclusions based on surmises.

When to buy? You have some money to invest. Should you completely ignore the future trend of the business cycle?

Questions:

# Does this mean that if a person has some money to invest he should completely ignore what the future trend of the business cycle may be and invest 100% of this fund the moment he has found the right stocks and located a good buying point, as indicated above?

A depression might strike right after he has made his investment.

Since a decline of 40 to 50% from its peak is not at all uncommon for even the best stock in a normal business depression, is not completely ignoring the business cycle rather a risky policy?



1.   For those in the happy position of having a backlog of well-chosen investments bought comfortably below present prices.

Answers:  

This risk may be taken in stride by the investor who, for a considerable period of time, has already had the bulk of his stocks placed in well-chosen situations.

If properly chosen, these should by now have already shown him some fairly substantial capital gains.

But now, either because he believes one of his securities should be sold or because some new funds have come his way, such an investor has funds to purchase something new.

UNLESS it is one of those rare years when speculative buying is running riot in the stock market and major economic storm signals are virtually screaming their warnings (as happened in 1928 and 1929), this class of investor should ignore any guesses on the coming trend of general business or the stock market.

# Instead, he should invest the appropriate funds as soon as the suitable buying opportunity arises.



2.  For those NOT in the happy position of having a backlog of well-chosen investments bought comfortably below present prices.

Answers:

Perhaps this maybe the first time they have funds to invest.

Perhaps they may have a portfolio of bonds or relatively static non-growth stocks which at long last they desire to convert into shares that in the future will show them more worthwhile gains.

If such investors get possession of new funds or develop a desire to convert to growth stocks after a prolonged period of prosperity and many years of rising stock prices, should they, too, ignore the hazards of a possible business depression?

Such an investor would not be in a very happy position if, later on, he realized he had committed all or most of his assets near the top of a long rise or just prior to a major decline.

This does create a problem.  However, the solution to this problem is not especially difficult - as in so many other things connected with the stock market, it just requires an extra bit of patience.

# This group should start buying the appropriate type of common stocks just as they feel sure they have located one or more of them.

# However, having made a start in this type of purchasing, they should stagger the timing of further buying.

# They should plan to allow several years before the final part of their available funds will have become invested.

By so doing, if the market has a severe decline somewhere in this period, they will still have purchasing power available to take advantage of such a decline.  

If no decline occurs and they have properly selected their earlier purchases, they should have at least a few substantial gains on such holdings.

This would provide a cushion so that if a severe decline happened to occur at the worst possible time for them - which would be just after the final part of their funds had become fully invested - the gains on the earlier purchases should largely, if not entirely, offset the declines on the more recent ones.

No severe loss of original capital would, therefore, be involved.


Additional notes:

There is an equally important reason why investors who have not already obtained a record of satisfactory investments, and who have enough funds to be able to stagger their purchases should do so.

#  This is that such investors will have had a practical demonstration, prior to using up all their funds, that they or their advisors are sufficient masters of investment technique to operate with reasonable efficiency.

In the event that such a record had not been attained, at least, all of an investor's assets would not be committed before he had had a warning signal to revive his investment technique or to get someone else to handle such matters for him.

When to buy? Great companies that ran into temporary corporate troubles and those with yet to be recognised worthwhile improvement in earnings, maybe buying opportunities.

1.  Great companies that ran into temporary corporate troubles maybe buying opportunities.

In short, the company into which the investor should be buying is the company which is doing things under the guidance of exceptionally able management.

A few of these things are bound to fail.

Others will from time to time produce unexpected troubles before they succeed.

The investor should be thoroughly sure in his own mind that these troubles are temporary rather than permanent.

# Then if these troubles have produced a significant decline in the price of the affected stock and give promise of being solved in a matter of months rather than years, he will probably be on a pretty safe ground in considering that this is a time when the stock may be bought.





2.  Buying the right sort of company with a worthwhile improving  in earnings that has not yet produced an upward move in its price.

All buying points do not arise out of corporate troubles.

Another type of opportunity sometimes occurs.

What is the common denominator?

# It is that a worthwhile improvement in earnings coming in the right sort of company, but that this particular increase in earnings has not yet produced an upward move in the price of that company's shares.

Whenever this situation occurs the right sort of investment may be considered to be in a buying range.

Conversely, when it does not occur, an investor will still in the long  run make money if he buys into outstanding companies.

However, he had then better have a somewhat greater degree of patience for it will take him longer to make this money and percentage-wise it will be a considerably smaller profit on his original investment.



----------------------


Additional notes:

Questions:

Does this mean that if a person has some money to invest he should completely ignore what the future trend of the business cycle may be and invest 100% of this fund the moment he has found the right stocks and located a good buying point, as indicated above?

A depression might strike right after he has made his investment.

Since a decline of 40 to 50% from its peak is not at all uncommon for even the best stock in a normal business depression, is not completely ignoring the business cycle rather a risky policy?

When to Buy? When to Sell? Learning from Philip Fisher describing a fund's investment into American Cyanamid share.

When to Buy?

Philip Fisher wrote:

"Immediately prior to the 1954 congressional elections, certain investment funds took advantage of this type of situation.  For several years before this time, American Cyanamid shares had sold in the market at a considerably lower price-earnings ratio than most of the other major chemical companies.  I believe this was because the general feeling in the financial community was that, while the Lederle division represented one of the world's most outstanding pharmaceutical organizations, the relatively larger industrial and agricultural chemical activities constituted a hodge-podge of expensive and inefficient plants flung together in the typical "stock market" merger period of the  booming 1920's.  These properties were generally considered anything but a desirable investment."

"Largely unnoticed was the fact that a new management was steadily but without fanfare cutting production costs, eliminating dead wood, and streamlining the organization.  What was noticed was that this company was'making a huge bet' - making a major capital expenditure, for a company its size, in a giant new organic chemical plant at Fortier, Louisiana.  So much complex engineering was designed into this plant that it should have surprised no one when the plant lagged many months behind schedule in reaching the break-even point.  As the problems at Fortier continued, however, the situation added to the generally unfavourable light in which American Cyanamid shares were then being regarded.  At this stage, in the believe a buying point was at hand, the funds to which I have already referred acquired their holdings at an average price of 45 3/4.  This would be 22 7/8 on the present shares as a result of a 2 for 1 stock split which occurred in 1957."

"What has happened since?  Sufficient time has elapsed for the company to begin getting the benefits of some of the management activities that were creating abnormal costs in 1954.  Fortier is now profitable.  Earnings have increased from $1.48 per (present) common share in 1954 to $2.10 per share in 1956 and promise to be slightly higher in 1957, a year in which most chemical (though not pharmaceutical) profits have run behind those of the year before.  At least as important, 'Wall Street; has come to realize that American Cyanamid's industrial and agricultural chemical activities are worthy of institutional investment.  As a result, the price-earnings ratio of these shares has changed noticeably.  A 37 percent increase in earnings that has taken place in somewhat under 3 years has produced a gain in market value of approximately 85 percent."



Since writing these words, the financial community's steady upgrading of the status of American Cyanamid appears to have continued.  With earnings for 1959 promising to top the previous all-time peak of $2.42 in 1957, the market price of these shares has steadily advance.  It now is about 60, representing a gain of about 70 percent in earning power and 163 percent in market value in the five years since the shares referred to were acquired.


In 1954 Cyanamid stock was purchased by "certain funds" referred to by Philip Fisher in his original edition.  These funds are no longer retaining the shares, which were sold in the spring of 1959 at an average price of about 49.  This was of course significantly below the current market (60) but still represented a profit of about 110 percent.



When to Sell?

The size of the profit had nothing whatsoever to do with the decision to sell.

There were two motives behind the decision.

1.  One was that the long-range outlook for another company appeared even better.  While not enough time has yet passed to give conclusive proof one way or the other, so far comparative market quotations for both stocks appear to have warranted this move.

2.  There was a second motive behind this switch of investments which hindsight may prove to be less credible.  This was concern that in relation to the most outstanding of competitive companies, American Cyanamid's chemical (in contrast to its pharmaceutical) business was not making as much progress in broadening profit margins and establishing profitable new lines as had been hoped.  Concern over these factors was accentuated by uncertainty over the possible costs of the company's attempt to establish itself in the acrylic fiber business in the highly competitive textile industry.  This reasoning may prove to be correct and still could turn out to have been the wrong investment decision, because of bright prospects in the Lederle, or pharmaceutical division.  These prospects have become more apparent since the shares were sold.  The possibilities for a further sharp jump in Lederle earning power in the medium-term future center around (1) a new and quite promising antibiotic, and (2) in time a sizable market for an oral "live" polio vaccine, a field in which this company has been a leader.  These developments make it problematic and a matter that only the future will decide as to whether this decision to dispose of Cyanamid shares may not have been an investment mistake.  





-------------------------------------------------------





Additional Notes:

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my/2010/09/common-stocks-and-uncommon-profits-by.html

WHEN TO BUY

Contrary to Buffett, Fisher is looking for companies that "will have spectacular growth in their per-share earnings." (Buffett is primarily concerned with consistent and handsome returns on equity.) Buffett and Fisher do agree on the worthlessness of macroeconomic forecasting. Fisher writes, "The conventional method of timing when to buy stocks is, I believe, just as silly as it appears on the surface to be sensible. This method is to marshal a vast mass of economic data…I believe that the economics which deal with the forecasting business trends may be considered to be about as far along as was the science of chemistry during the days of alchemy in the Middle Ages." Fisher prefers to buy into outstanding companies when their earnings are temporarily depressed, and so consequently is the share price, because of a new product or process launch. "In contrast to guessing which way general business or the stock market may go, he should be able to judge with only a small probability of error what the company into which he wants to buy is going to do in relation to business in general."

Stock monitoring and when to sell
• Use a three-year rule for judging results if a stock is
underperforming but no fundamental changes have
occurred.
• Hold stock until there is a fundamental change in its
nature or it has grown to a point where it will no longer
be growing faster than the overall economy.
• Don’t sell for short-term reasons.
• Sell mistakes quickly, once they are recognized.
• Don’t overdiversify—10 or 12 larger companies is
sufficient, investing in a variety of industries with different
characteristics.

When to Buy? Economic forecasting business trends cannot be safely used as a basis for your investing action. Stay with superbly selected growth stocks.

The heart of successful investing is knowing how to find the minority of stocks that in the years ahead will have spectacular growth in their per-share earnings.

Is there any reason to divert time or mental effort from this main issue?

Does not the matter of when to buy become of relatively minor importance?

Once the investor is sure he has definitely found an outstanding stock, isn't any time at all a good time to buy it?

The answer to this depends somewhat on the investor's objective.

It also depends on his temperament.



The consequence of buying just before a big stock market crash.

An example of this would be the purchase of several superbly selected enterprises in the summer of 1929 or just before the greatest stock market crash of American history.

In time, such a purchase would have turned out well.

But 25 years later, it would provide a much smaller percentage gain than would have been the case if, having done the hardest part of the job in selecting his companies properly, an investor had made the small extra effort needed to understand a few simple principles about the timing of growth stocks.

In other words:

• if the right stocks are bought and held long enough they will always produce some profit.
• usually, they will produce a handsome profit.
•  however, to produce close to the maximum profit, the kind of spectacular profit one hoped for, some consideration must be given to timing.

The conventional method of timing when to buy stocks.

This is just as silly as it appears on the surface to be sensible.

This method is to marshal a vast mass of economic data.  From these data conclusions are reached as to the near- and medium-term course of general business.

More sophisticated investors will usually form opinions about the future course of money rates as well as business activity.

Then, if their forecasts for all these matters indicate no major worsening of background conditions, the conclusion is that the desired stock may be bought.   

It sometimes appears that dark clouds are forming on the horizon.  Then those who use this generally accepted method will postpone or cancel purchases they otherwise would make.


The objection to this conventional approach.

The conventional approach is not unreasonable in theory.  

The objection is that in the current state of human knowledge about the economics which deal with forecasting future business trends, it is impossible to apply this method in practice.

The chances of being right are not good enough to warrant such methods being used as a basis for risking the investment of savings.

This may not always be the case.


Economic forecasting business trends cannot be safely used as a basis for your investing action.

It might not even be the case five or ten years from now.  At present, able men are attempting to harness electronic computers to establish "input-output" series of sufficient intricacy that perhaps at some future date it may be possible to know with a fair degree of precision what the coming business trend will be.

When, if ever, such developments occur, the art of common stock investment may have to be radically revised.  Until they occur, however, the economics which deal with forecasting business trends may be considered to be about as far along as was the science of chemistry during the days of alchemy in the Middle Ages.

In chemistry then, as in business forecasting now, basic principles were just beginning to emerge from a mysterious mass of mumbo-jumbo.  However, chemistry had not reached a point where such principles could be safely used as a basis for choosing a course of action.


Rarely, economic forecasting is useful or safe.

Occasionally, as in 1929, the economy gets so out of line that speculative enthusiasm for the future runs to unprecedented proportions.

Even in our present state of economic ignorance, it is possible to make a pretty accurate guess as to what will occur.

However, it is doubtful if the years when it is safe to do this have averaged much more than one out of ten.

They may be even rarer in the future.

(Read:  Year 2008 - Buffett Calls The Market Again...And He's Never Been Wrong
http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my/2016/01/year-2008-buffett-calls-market-againand.html0



If, then, conventional studies of the near-term economic prospect do not provide the right method of approach to the proper timing of buying, what does provide it?

The answer lies in the very nature of growth stocks themselves.



Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits
Philip Fisher

Philip Fisher’s Approach in Brief

It’s Quality That Counts: The Fisher Approach to Stock Investing

Philosophy and style


Investment in “outstanding” companies that over the
years can grow in sales and profits more than industry
as a whole. The key features of “outstanding” companies
are: strong management that has a disciplined approach
designed to achieve dramatic long-term growth in profits,
with products or services that have the potential for
sizable sales long term, and with other inherent qualities
that would make it difficult for competitors and newcomers
to share in that potential growth.


Universe of stocks

No restrictions on universe of stocks from which to
select. Over-the-counter stocks should not be overlooked,
but “outstanding” companies are not necessarily
young and small.


Criteria for initial consideration

Prospective companies should pass most of the following
15 points, which can be divided into three main
dimensions:

Functional factors:
• Products or services with sufficient market potential for
sizable increase in sales for several years. Major sales
growth, judged over series of years.
• Superiority in production—lowest-cost production (for
manufacturing firms) or lowest-cost operation (for
service firms or retailers).
• Strong marketing organization—efficiency of sales, advertising,
and distributive organizations.
• Outstanding research and development efforts—amount
expended relative to its size, effectiveness of effort as
indicated by ability to bring research ideas to production
and to market and by how much research contributed
to net profits.
• Effectiveness of company’s cost analysis and accounting
controls, and choice of capital investments that will
bring the highest return.
• Financial strength or cash position—sufficient capital
to take care of needs to exploit prospects for next
several years without the need to raise equity capital.


Excellence in Management
• Attitude of management to continue to develop products
or services that will further increase sales.
• Development of good in-house management and teamwork.
• Management depth.
• Good labor and personnel relations: Affiliation with an
international union may be an indication of bad relations;
labor turnover relative to competitors.
• Long-range outlook by management even at the expense
of short-term profits.
• Good investor relations, and willingness to talk freely
about problems.
• Management of unquestionable integrity—salaries and
perks in line with those of other managers.


Business characteristics
• Above-average profitability: Compare profit margins
per dollar of sales—compare within industry and examine
for several years, not just single years. Older and
larger firms are usually the best in their industry.
Younger firms may elect to speed up growth by spending
all or a large part of profits on research or sales; for
these, make sure a narrow profit margin is due to
spending in these areas alone.
• Ability to maintain good profit margins: Good position
relative to competition—for instance, skill in a particular
line of business, or patent protection for a small
business.


Secondary factors
Once an “outstanding” company is found, purchase
stock when it is out-of-favor either because the market
has temporarily misjudged the true value of the company,
or because of general market conditions. “Outstanding”
companies can also be purchased at fair value, but
investor should expect a lower (but respectable) return.


Stock monitoring and when to sell
• Use a three-year rule for judging results if a stock is
underperforming but no fundamental changes have
occurred.
• Hold stock until there is a fundamental change in its
nature or it has grown to a point where it will no longer
be growing faster than the overall economy.
• Don’t sell for short-term reasons.
• Sell mistakes quickly, once they are recognized.
• Don’t overdiversify—10 or 12 larger companies is
sufficient, investing in a variety of industries with different
characteristics.


https://www.aaii.com/journal/article/it-s-quality-that-counts-the-fisher-approach-to-stock-investing

The Danger of getting out of stocks during the Bear Market.

Reactions to turbulent and bear markets vary by investor. 

Some are unfazed by large drops in stock prices, and even view them as buying opportunities (“Buffett-like investors”). 

Others curtail their stock holdings when the market incurs a steep drop, but don’t completely pull out of stocks (“nervous investors”). 

There also are many who get out of stocks completely during a bear market (“panic investors”) out of fear of incurring further losses.




Given wide variances in how each investor reacts to bear markets— the aggregate data does imply, however, that Buffett-like investors are likely a comparatively small group. More people probably fall into the nervous and panic investor groups. This is not surprising, given the human inclination to be risk-averse. 

As Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky demonstrated with “prospect theory,” we feel the pain of losses much more than we derive pleasure from gains. 

Compounding matters, we humans commonly engage in hyperbolic discounting, which means we place greater value on rewards received sooner rather than later. 

When the market falls and stocks are sold, we see the immediate value of avoiding further losses. 

What isn’t considered are the potential future gains forfeited by not continuing to stick with stocks or, better yet, by rebalancing and allocating more money into stocks.

Rebalancing: A Better Method

If panicking is a big problem, a strategy that helps an investor to maintain a constant exposure to stocks should logically produce benefits. While some may view the best advice as simply being “don’t panic and stay allocated to stocks,” such guidance only works well for Buffett-like investors. All other investors need a strategy that gives them a sense of control. This is where rebalancing comes into play.

Rebalancing is the process of adjusting your portfolio back to your targeted allocation. For example, say your allocation calls for a 70% allocation to stocks and a 30% allocation to bonds. After a bad year for equities, your portfolio’s allocation changes to 60% stocks and 40% bonds. Rebalancing would prompt you to shift 10% of portfolio dollars out your bond holdings and into stocks, bringing your portfolio back in line with your targets.

Rebalancing is a buy low/sell high strategy—the opposite of what many investors actually do. It prompts you to buy assets after they have fallen in price. This may sound counterintuitive and may even be difficult to do the first time you try to employ it. Yet its bear market benefits may convince you of its value. Rebalancing lessens the blow of bear markets, making it easier to stick with stocks. In addition, rebalancing restores a sense of control. Rather than being left wondering what the best decision is for your portfolio based on what the pundits are saying about market direction, you have a strategy that prompts you to act and gives direction on how to do it.

http://www.aaii.com/journal/article2/the-danger-of-getting-out-of-stocks-during-bear-markets?viewall=true

Value Investing

Benjamin Graham, the Father of Value Investing

The Big Picture Investing

Big Picture Investing - Mr. Harish Krishnan
IFA Galaxy 6th Knowledge Summit 10.10.2015

Summary:

Big Picture - India is a land of massive opportunities
Asset Allocation Trends - Diversify into financial assets
Time in markets - More important than timing the markets
Businesses don't operate in excel sheets - Don't be greedy
Power of Compounding - Start Young


The Next Trillion Dollar Opportunity

India GDP trend (US$ terms)
FY51-08:  7.3% CAGR
FY08-15:  7.9% CAGR

2008  1st US$ tn  68 years
2015  2nd US$ tn 7 years
2020  3rd US$ tn 6 years
2024  4th US$ tn 4 years

Indian Company Vs Global Giants
Indian companies are smaller.
Growth is faster in some Indian Companies.



Asset Allocation Trends

World private wealth / National Income ratio
varies from 200% to 700%

Factors affecting wealth creation
= Rising income and corresponding savings
= Asset Allocation

India's wealth / national income ratio is in
range of 250% = 300%.

Rough approximations on asset
ownership in India
- Agri land - US$1tn
- Urban land- US$2.5tn
- Gold - US$1tn
- Deposits - US$1tn
- Insurance/PF etc - US$0.5tn
- Equities - US$0.15tn

US Allocation:
- In 1984:
Housing 40%,
Interest-earning assets - 14%,
Equity + Reitrement - 7%

- In 2011:
Housing 20%,
Interest-earning assets - 7%,
Equity + Reitrement - 40%


Time-ing the Market

Facts about Sensex

Sensex has given a compounded return of 15.03% return
from Jan 1, 1991 to Jan 30, 2015 (almost 29 bagger in 24 years)

There are only 21 days when Sensex has hit a Six (more than 6%
daily return).

There are only 90 days when Sensex has hit a Four (more than 4%
daily return)

If you had not invested for just 53 days out of the total of 5812 days
your return from Sensex will become NIL.


Businesses don't operate in Excel Sheet but in Real World

20 Year study of Indian Companies

Out of 1000+ Indian companies (non-financial), what % of companies reported
20 year-revenue CAGR higher than nominal GDP growth rate (14%)?    27% or 290 companies

How many companies managed to grow ahead of nominal GDP growth rate every
year over the last 20 years?   Just 1!!!!

Let's relax it a bit!  How many companies managed to grow ahead of nominal GDP
growth rate in at least 15 out of 20 years?   ONLY 37!

How many Indian companies have had a minimum ROCE of at least 15% in each of
the last 20 years?   ONLY 35!

BUSINESS OPERATE IN REAL WORLD, WHICH ARE CONSTANTLY CHANGING.



Compounding

World Population Growth
From 3 to 70+ Billion (or 700+ Crores)
Approximately 5775 years or 288 generations
Any guesses on CAGR?
10%?
5%?
1%?
Answer:  CAGR of 0.03%

Time is the biggest compounding machine!
START YOUNG



Lookout for Outlook!

Once all villagers decided to pray for rain, on the day of prayer all the
perople gathered but only one boy came with an umbrella.  THAT'S FAITH.

When you throw a baby in the air, she laughs because she knows you
will catch her.  THAT/S TRUST.

Every night we go to bed, without any assurance of being alive the next
morning, but we still set the alarms to wake up.  THAT'S HOPE.

We plan big things for tomorrow in spite of limited knowledge of the
future.   THAT'S CONFIDENCE.

We see the world suffereing, but still we get married!  THAT'S OVERCONFIDENCE.

Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits by Philip Fisher

Warren Buffett in Under 10 minutes

Philip Fisher, Legendary Growth Investor