Tuesday, 19 October 2010

Income Inequality: Too Big to Ignore

By ROBERT H. FRANK



PEOPLE often remember the past with exaggerated fondness. Sometimes, however, important aspects of life really were better in the old days.
David G. Klein




















During the three decades after World War II, for example, incomes in the United States rose rapidly and at about the same rate — almost 3 percent a year — for people at all income levels. America had an economically vibrant middle class. Roads and bridges were well maintained, and impressive new infrastructure was being built. People were optimistic.
By contrast, during the last three decades the economy has grown much more slowly, and our infrastructure has fallen into grave disrepair. Most troubling, all significant income growth has been concentrated at the top of the scale. Theshare of total income going to the top 1 percent of earners, which stood at 8.9 percent in 1976, rose to 23.5 percent by 2007, but during the same period, the average inflation-adjusted hourly wage declined by more than 7 percent.
Yet many economists are reluctant to confront rising income inequality directly, saying that whether this trend is good or bad requires a value judgment that is best left to philosophers. But that disclaimer rings hollow. Economics, after all, was founded by moral philosophers, and links between the disciplines remain strong. So economists are well positioned to address this question, and the answer is very clear.
Adam Smith, the father of modern economics, was a professor of moral philosophy at the University of Glasgow. His first book, “A Theory of Moral Sentiments,” was published more than 25 years before his celebrated “Wealth of Nations,” which was itself peppered with trenchant moral analysis.
Some moral philosophers address inequality by invoking principles of justice and fairness. But because they have been unable to forge broad agreement about what these abstract principles mean in practice, they’ve made little progress. The more pragmatic cost-benefit approach favored by Smith has proved more fruitful, for it turns out that rising inequality has created enormous losses and few gains, even for its ostensible beneficiaries.
Recent research on psychological well-being has taught us that beyond a certain point, across-the-board spending increases often do little more than raise the bar for what is considered enough. A C.E.O. may think he needs a 30,000-square-foot mansion, for example, just because each of his peers has one. Although they might all be just as happy in more modest dwellings, few would be willing to downsize on their own.
People do not exist in a social vacuum. Community norms define clear expectations about what people should spend on interview suits and birthday parties. Rising inequality has thus spawned a multitude of “expenditure cascades,” whose first step is increased spending by top earners.
The rich have been spending more simply because they have so much extra money. Their spending shifts the frame of reference that shapes the demands of those just below them, who travel in overlapping social circles. So this second group, too, spends more, which shifts the frame of reference for the group just below it, and so on, all the way down the income ladder. These cascades have made it substantially more expensive for middle-class families to achieve basic financial goals.
In a recent working paper based on census data for the 100 most populous counties in the United States, Adam Seth Levine (a postdoctoral researcher in political science atVanderbilt University), Oege Dijk (an economics Ph.D. student at the European University Institute) and I found that the counties where income inequality grew fastest also showed the biggest increases in symptoms of financial distress.
For example, even after controlling for other factors, these counties had the largest increases in bankruptcy filings.
Divorce rates are another reliable indicator of financial distress, as marriage counselors report that a high proportion of couples they see are experiencing significant financial problems. The counties with the biggest increases in inequality also reported the largest increases in divorce rates.
Another footprint of financial distress is long commute times, because families who are short on cash often try to make ends meet by moving to where housing is cheaper — in many cases, farther from work. The counties where long commute times had grown the most were again those with the largest increases in inequality.
The middle-class squeeze has also reduced voters’ willingness to support even basic public services. Rich and poor alike endure crumbling roads, weak bridges, an unreliable rail system, and cargo containers that enter our ports without scrutiny. And many Americans live in the shadow of poorly maintained dams that could collapse at any moment.
ECONOMISTS who say we should relegate questions about inequality to philosophers often advocate policies, like tax cuts for the wealthy, that increase inequality substantially. That greater inequality causes real harm is beyond doubt.
But are there offsetting benefits?
There is no persuasive evidence that greater inequality bolsters economic growth or enhances anyone’s well-being. Yes, the rich can now buy bigger mansions and host more expensive parties. But this appears to have made them no happier. And in our winner-take-all economy, one effect of the growing inequality has been to lure our most talented graduates to the largely unproductive chase for financial bonanzas on Wall Street.
In short, the economist’s cost-benefit approach — itself long an important arrow in the moral philosopher’s quiver — has much to say about the effects of rising inequality. We need not reach agreement on all philosophical principles of fairness to recognize that it has imposed considerable harm across the income scale without generating significant offsetting benefits.
No one dares to argue that rising inequality is required in the name of fairness. So maybe we should just agree that it’s a bad thing — and try to do something about it.

Robert H. Frank is an economics professor at the Johnson Graduate School of Management at Cornell University.

The Financial Time Bomb of Longer Lives



Christophe Vorlet




FIRST the good news: We’re living longer, healthier lives than ever before.
We’re already so used to the idea of greater longevity, in fact, that it may seem ho-hum to learn that boys and girls born in 2008 in the United States have life expectancies of 75 and 81, respectively.
Those life spans, however, represent a bonus of about three decades, compared with Americans born in 1900, according to a report last year from the Census Bureau. And, by the way, Spain, Greece and Austria fared even better, proportionally: Life expectancies in those countries doubled over the course of the 20th century.
Now for the bad news: At this rate, we can’t afford to live so long.
And by “we,” I don’t just mean you, me and our often insufficient long-term-careinsurance policies. I mean “we the people.” I mean the bureaucratic “we.”
For the first time in human history, people aged 65 and over are about to outnumber children under 5. In many countries, older people entitled to government-funded pensions, health services and long-term care will soon outnumber the work force whose taxes help finance those benefits. This demographic shift also means that the number of people living with dementia, whose treatment is estimated to cost $604 billion worldwide this year, is expected to more than triple, to 115 million, by 2050, according to a report this year by Alzheimer’s Disease International, a group representing 73 Alzheimer’s associations around the world.
No other force is as likely to shape the future of national economic health, public finances and national policies, according to a new analysis on global aging from Standard & Poor’s, as the “irreversible rate at which the population is growing older.”
How are the most developed countries handling preparations for the boom in the elderly population — and for the budget-busting expenditures that are sure to follow?
For a majority, not very well.
Unless governments enact sweeping changes to age-related public spending, sovereign debt could become unsustainable, rivaling levels seen during cataclysms like the Great Depression and World War II, according to the S.& P. report.
If the status quo continues, the report projects, the median government debt in the most advanced economies could soar to 329 percent of gross domestic product by 2050. By contrast, Britain’s debt represented only 252 percent of G.D.P. in 1946, in the aftermath of World War II, the report said.
So what is to be done?
For starters, governments should extend the retirement age, says Marko Mrsnik, the associate director of sovereign ratings in Europe for S.& P. and the lead author of the report. Another no-brainer, he says, is that governments should balance their budgets.
Alas, private citizens often don’t see the logic in curbing public benefits in order to maintain national solvency. Witness France last week, where more than one million people took to the streets to protest pension reform that would raise the minimum legal retirement age to 62 from 60.
Moreover, global aging experts say, measures like pension reform are inadequate, piecemeal responses to the giant demographic shift that is upon us.
If the cost of maintaining aging populations could lead to World War II-era levels of government debt, a solution to the crisis will require a mass-scale collaborative response akin to the Manhattan Project or the space race, says Michael W. Hodin, who is an adjunct senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and researches aging issues.
Governments, industry and international agencies, he says, will have to work together to transform the very structure of society, by creating jobs and education programs for people in their 60s and 70s — the hypothetical new middle age — and by tackling diseases like Alzheimer’s whose likelihood increases as people age.
“What we need is a very fundamental and profound transformation that is proportionate to the social shifts that are upon us and that is truly innovative in the public arena, innovation that is driven by industry,” says Mr. Hodin.
Here’s one simple suggestion: Influential international organizations, government agencies, companies and academic institutions should take up aging as a cause, the way they have already done for the environment. Although the United Nations, for example, set eight “millennium development goals” — ensuring environmental sustainability, promoting gender equality, and so on — for 2015, the list did not include ensuring the sustainability and equality of aging populations.
“This is quite unacceptable that aging hasn’t been included in these goals,” says Baroness Greengross, a member of the House of Lords in Britain and chief executive of theInternational Longevity Centre U.K in London.
Here’s another suggestion: Governments with national health programs or other state coverage could start curbing the growth in medical spending ahead of the looming elderquake.
If countries wait to act, says Peter S. Heller, a senior adjunct professor of economics atJohns Hopkins University, they will have to scramble reactively to cut their budgets in response to burgeoning older populations, the way Greece, Ireland and Spain have done recently. At the same time, he says, politicians must also start educating citizens to understand that greater longevity may entail personal sacrifices, like increased savings and a willingness to pay higher shares of their medical and long-term care costs.
But the carrot may be a better approach than the stick, says Laura L. Carstensen, a professor of psychology at Stanford and the director of the Stanford Center on Longevity. She describes her outfit as a multidisciplinary research center whose “modest aim is to change the course of human aging.”
Rather than uniformly extending the retirement age, she says, governments and the private sector could develop incentives that motivate older people to remain in the work force. Those incentives might include bonuses for people who work until they are 70, exempting employers from paying Social Security taxes for employees over retirement age, more flexible work schedules, telecommuting options, and sabbaticals for education and training.
“Maybe culture needs to change first,” says Professor Carstensen, “and policy will follow.”
FINALLY, some governments and companies may need attitude adjustments so they can view aging populations not as debt loads but as valuable wells of expertise.
“I rather dispute your calling it a problem,” said Lady Greengross when I called to ask her how governments could better handle global aging. “It’s a celebration.”
As one example of how to embrace aging populations, she cites an equality act, recently passed by British legislators, that prohibits discrimination against older people (among others) seeking goods and services like car rentals or mortgages. Separately, she says, Britain next year will eliminate its default retirement age of 65, allowing people to remain in the work force longer.
“In the long run, I’d like to see age irrelevance,” Lady Greengross says, “where people aren’t just labeled by their birthdays.”

Popular With Investors, Emerging Markets Dread Flow of Cash

By BETTINA WASSENER
Published: October 18, 2010

HONG KONG — The World Bank flagged the potential risks on Tuesday of the flood of cash heading into emerging markets, while South Korea and Brazil signaled additional measures aimed at stemming the tide, highlighting how worried many emerging nations have become about the extent to which inflows have pushed up their currencies.

Yoshihiko Noda, the Japanese finance minister, added his voice to the chorus of concern about the flow of capital to emerging economies and called on finance ministers of the Group of 20 major economies to seek ways to stabilize currencies when they meet in South Korea this week, Reuters reported.

“Currencies will be the topic that many people will be talking about” at the meeting, Reuters quoted Mr. Noda as saying. “I hope that good ideas will be put forward there.”

A sharp rise in investments flowing into developing nations has caused many emerging-nation currencies to strengthen sharply in recent weeks, to the dismay of local policy makers and businesses, which fear a loss of competitiveness as their goods become more expensive in dollar terms.

Investors seeking to tap the positive growth environment, and the higher interest rates that are in force in many emerging-market economies, have flocked into bonds, equities and property, generating rising concern about asset bubbles.

The trend has added complexity to what was, until recently, a currency debate focused largely on the United States and China, with Washington asking Beijing to allow the renminbi to fluctuate more freely against the U.S. dollar and China resisting a rapid appreciation, fearing a potentially devastating effect on its export sector.

“This is no longer just a bilateral debate between the U.S. and China,” Frederic Neumann, a senior Asia economist at HSBC, said in Hong Kong on Tuesday.

Moreover, analysts say that the influx into emerging markets — and the upward pressure it puts on their currencies — is likely to receive added impetus if, as is widely expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve resumes buying vast amounts of U.S. government debt to aid recovery.

“Should inflows remain strong, especially against a background of weak global growth, the authorities will be faced with the challenge of balancing the need for large capital inflows — especially foreign direct investment — with ensuring competitiveness, financial sector stability and low inflation,” Vikram Nehru, chief economist at the World Bank for the East Asia and Pacific region, said in a statement accompanying an update Tuesday on the region’s economy.

The bank nudged up its 2010 growth forecast for the region — which includes China, Indonesia and Southeast Asia, but not India and Japan — to 8.9 percent, from its previous projection of 8.7 percent.

Growth is expected to slow next year as spare production capacity becomes scarce, economic stimulus measures are unwound and economic growth in the advanced economies remains relatively flat, the World Bank said, lowering its 2011 forecast to 7.8 percent from the 8 percent it had projected in April.

The bank also stressed that renewed flow of capital into the region, and the rise in asset prices that this has fueled, now presented a “growing risk to macroeconomic stability.”

Some emerging nations have started to take steps to slow these inflows, for example by raising taxes on foreign purchases of local bonds. Many have also intervened in the currency markets to slow the ascent of their currencies.

Brazil, where interest rates are particularly high and act as a magnet for foreign cash, raised taxes on Monday for foreigners buying local bonds, its second such move this month. Announcing the new measures, the Brazilian finance minister, Guido Mantega, called for a coordinated approach to the increasingly acrimonious topic of relative currency valuations. South Korea, meanwhile, said Tuesday it would consider lifting tax exemptions on government bonds owned by foreign investors. Such a step would make it less attractive for foreign investors to put their money in such instruments.

Ideally, the meeting of G-20 finance ministers, and a summit meeting next month of G-20 leaders, would bring about “a coordinated appreciation of emerging markets currencies, gradually, over time, to help rebalance the global economy,” Mr. Neumann of HSBC said. If not, he added, “we might see further unilateral actions aimed at protecting currencies.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/20/business/global/20asiaecon.html?_r=1&ref=business

Dow 11,000: Opportunity or Threat?


By Anand Chokkavelu, CFA 



An admission: I'm a long-term buy and hold investor who knows better, but I still check my portfolio roughly 15.4 times a day. More often when the stock market's surging.
With the Dow at 11,000, Yahoo! Finance loves me. But as we all know (or should know), 11,000 is just a number. It should not spur any rash trading one way or the other.
To make the most of this arbitrary market event, I asked three of my fellow analysts for some advice for individual investors at these stock price levels.
Morgan Housel, Fool contributor: These milestones are generally meaningless, but I still think the market at these levels provides more opportunity than threat. The S&P 500 is on track to earn about $83 this year, and an estimated $94 next year. With the index at 1,165, I don't know where the overvaluation anxiety comes from. We're talking broad market multiples of 12-14, which should qualify as somewhere between cheap and reasonable -- with room for error. At the individual company level, high-quality companies like Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT)and Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) trade at valuations that shouldn't make sense to rational people.
My feeling is that the market's surge since the lows of March 2009 simply has many investors asking, "how is this increase justified?" They see a 70% market increase at a time when the economy looks like a cesspool, and it just feels wrong. But focusing only on the increase is misleading. The important question to ask is, "was the depth of the market crash justified to begin with?" I don't think it was. Look, corporate profits are at an all-time high. Nominal GDP is at an all-time high. Personal spending is at an all-time high. The long-term drivers of the stock market aren't doing as bad as some imagine.
Alex Dumortier, CFA, Fool contributor: Yes, last week the Dow crossed 11,000 for the first time since early May; however, it would be very difficult to argue that higher stock prices are now an opportunity for anyone who is a net buyer of stocks -- which I expect is almost everyone reading this.
Still, I will say that the blue-chip Dow index represents almost certainly a better opportunity than the broader market S&P 500, as the following table suggests:
Fund
P/E Multiple
Dividend Yield
3-5 Year EPS Growth
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)
13.8
1.89%
10.7%
SPDR DJIA ETF (NYSE: DIA)
13.2
2.69%
9.1%
Source: State Street Global Advisors website.
At a cheaper multiple, I'll take the extra 80 basis points in dividend yield of the Dow ETF over the 160 basis point advantage in estimated earnings growth for the S&P 500 ETF any day of the week -- something about birds, hands, and bushes.
Investors who have the time and the ability can earn yet better returns from stockpicking and, given the underpricing of high-quality companies, the Dow components make a good shortlist from which to begin one's search (legendary investor John Paulson likes and owns at least three).
Matt Koppenheffer, Fool contributor: I don't pay a whole lot of attention to the Dow. The index contains all of 30 stocks, and it's really tough to get a good feel for what's going on in the massive U.S. market based on that small number.
Past that, it's meaningless to focus in on a number like 10,000, 11,000, or even 111,000. It looks nice in newspaper headlines, but the price level of an index is only noteworthy when looked at in the context of the profits produced by the companies in the index.
When I focus in on something more meaningful -- like the S&P 500's current price-to-earnings ratio of 16.6 -- I'd say that it's hard to peg the overall market as being particularly cheap or expensive. But I consider myself a stock-picker and I'd say that there are certainly opportunities for investors to find great individual stock opportunities in this market.
The great thing is that a lot of the market's current opportunities are high-quality, dividend-payingblue chips. Intel's (Nasdaq: INTC) stock, for example, is currently sitting at a forward P/E of just 10.6 and is paying a 3.2% dividend. Chevron (NYSE: CVX) has a forward P/E below 10 and a 3.4% dividend. It doesn't take a whole lot of brain busting to figure out that these are top-notch companies, so when I see these kinds of valuations, I'm all over them.

Tips for first-time house buyers: Key Issue is Affordability

By EDY SARIF edy@thestar.com.my | Oct 16, 2010

Tips for first-time house buyers


BUYING a house for the first time is like getting married. You need to be level headed, think wisely, plan well and eliminate the chances of regretting the decision later.
For first-time house buyers, scouring the market for a suitable property can be exhilarating but it can also be frustrating if you don’t find “the one” or you do but it comes with a bust-your-budget price tag.
There are a few factors to consider in the pursuit of buying your first dream house. Firstly, a prospective house buyer should ascertain how much upfront money he or she can fork out, says SK Brothers Realty Sdn Bhd general manager Chan Ai Cheng.
“This is important. There are heavy upfront costs depending on what you buy, including transfer cost, legal fees and so forth,” she says.
Secondly, the prospective buyer needs to check with the bank on the amount of loan that can be secured based on the income level. “At the same time, try to have savings amounting to at least three to six months of loan instalments plus household expenses as reserve fund, in case of an emergency,” Chan says.
In short, if you want to buy a house, you need to figure out your affordability – how much you can afford.
A real estate agent tells StarBizWeek that the rule of thumb is that monthly loan repayments should not exceed one third of the gross monthly income.
“In assessing your repayment capability, the financial institution would also take into account your other debt repayments such as car loan, personal loan and credit cards,” he says.
He adds that the margin of financing can go as high as 95%.
“The higher the margin, the higher you will have to pay per instalment. Plus, at a given rate, a shorter tenure will require you to pay higher instalment,” he says.
He adds that after you have set your finances right, make a list of features you are looking for in a house.
“Be sure that the house you are buying is big enough to meet all your future needs, in case you have additional members in the family,” he says.
“Take good note of the area and the neighbourhood as these aspects will play a crucial role in determining the price of the house in case you want to sell it in future,” he adds.
In terms of financing, buyers have a wide array to choose from be it conventional or Islamic.
Under the conventional financing, one’s outstanding loan consists of principal plus the interest charged.
“The interest is actually the financial institution’s cost in obtaining the funds. Islamic financing works on the concept of buying and selling where the financial institution purchases the property and subsequently sells it to you above the purchase price,” says a banker.
As for the loan tenure, it can range from anything up to 30 years or until the borrower reaches the age of 65, whichever is earlier.
She also advises that it’s better to buy than to rent a home as the latter is largely expense without equity.
Furthermore, she says: “When you invest in a home, it offers the possibility for appreciation in value. At the same time, the equity becomes yours when you’re still paying off your mortgage. You even get to live in it while your investment matures.”
Still, the key determinant ought to always be keeping within the budget.
“That’s most important. It’s easy to be swayed into wanting a bigger home or a bungalow just because your friends or someone else has one. This is nice to wish for but definitely not practical if it’s way out of your budget. Be realistic,” the banker says.
Ask on the “right” timing to buy a house, she says there is no “right” time to buy or sell anymore.
“If you find a home now, don’t try to second-guess the interest rates or the housing market by waiting. Changes do not usually occur fast enough to make that much difference in price and a good home will not stay on the market long,” she says.
Other News:



Is there a property bubble? As prices of properties climb, there is a problem of affordability.
Here is a problem faced by a first time buyer.

Oct 21, 2010
Q&A: Should we buy now or should we just wait?
Dear Azizi Ali,

I have recently just got married and wish to start a family by buying our first property. As you know, housing prices in Klang Valley are rocket high. Even if both my husband and I can afford to down for a new house or second hand, the monthly instalments will take up a big portion of our net disposable income (which puts a strain on us). We are now looking at an area known as Bukit Subang (next to Denai Alam). The price is half of Denai's (same size). We want a house that will have reasonable appreciation as a form of future investment and for current purpose, for own stay.

However, we are receiving opinions that we should delay the purchase as the property bubble may burst. Reason being, that a lot of executives whose monthly salary is in the region of RM5,000 to RM6,000 are buying houses that are worth almost a million for investment and when it’s time to start paying the instalment, defaults will begin and foreclosure will kick in. At the same time, supply is more than genuine demand (i.e. investor demand is more than genuine purchase).

Do you think we should buy in that area? Should we buy now or should we just wait? If we do buy, do you think that it is wise to stretch ourselves (i.e. instead of buying Bukit Subang, we buy in Denai Alam?)

Advice and opinions are appreciated.

Regards,
Aquila


http://www.starproperty.my/PropertyGuide/Finance/7698/0/0

Target price on Boustead Hldgs raised

9.10.2010

HwangDBS has raised its target price on Boustead Holdings to RM6.70, with a "buy" recommendation.

The research outfit said Boustead "remains our high conviction pick. We nudged up our price target to RM6.70 after updating market values of its listed entities and applying similar 20 per cent holding company discount.

HwangDBS noted that Bousteads 65 per cent-owned BHIC announced that its associate company, Boustead Naval Shipyard had received a LOI from the Malaysian Ministry of Defence to construct six second-generation patrol vessels with combatant capabilities.

The contract value and duration were not disclosed pending negotiation with the government.

But if the initial six vessels are a benchmark, this could be worth at least RM6.7 billion, almost triple its current RM2.5 billion orderbook.

Read more: Target price on Boustead Hldgs raised http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/20101019101444/Article/index_html#ixzz12mNtDAUp