Beating the Market – Opinion

Friday, June 19, 2009
Beating the Market – Opinion

Stock Market is a ground where players play all kind of “speculative” games to win, though they do not necessarily know who they are fighting with. Most of the retail investors try to get ahead comparing themselves with other investors and mutual fund managers who in turn compete with “Mr. Market” to enhance their reputation and performance. But they fail to understand that the fund managers and key investors have far more information, time and money to beat the market and even then vast majority of them fail to do it consistently.

Legendary investors like Buffet and Lynch did it in the past and are still doing it. But people like them are very few and the unique style they follow has not been mastered by anyone else. It’s true that they are giving tips like “Buy Low, Sell High”, “Long Term Investment”, and “Balance Sheet Analysis” etc…But what exact analysis they do before selecting a particular stock is unknown and even Buffet has admitted his failure in couple of dealings last year. So, beating the market is an arduous task and personally I would not waste my energy to match the market and few other people who are less than 0.001% of investor population.


All I would be interested in doing is to analyze the key parameters and business potential of various companies as good as I can and buy stocks that would not make me cry down the road. Of course I will be happy if my portfolio beats the market and I will take it, day or night. But taking undue risk, spending too much time brooding over how my neighbor could make more money than me or trying to become a millionaire in 2 years by investing in the so called “multi-baggers” will all be efforts in vain more often than not.

Strategy to Keep Yourself Happy

Satisfaction is an individual thing and for many people, no matter, how much return they get, still they will be found wanting. It’s natural of human beings to behave in such a manner but we have to learn quickly enough to understand that there is a cost involved in putting undue pressure on ourselves, which we do not count. Making money, getting good returns and beating the market are all desirable things but we should not lose our peace in doing that.

How many people did not curse themselves that they did not invest when the SENSEX was around 8000? If I conduct a poll (I am sure one is on the way), I am sure there will be only one answer. So, the main thing for us is to find the “Satisfaction Point” in terms of investment returns and here is my “Satisfaction Point”.



My Satisfaction Point


I get satisfied when I do the following no matter how much return I get. But believe me; I am close enough to most of the fund managers and even the market. I do not spend lot of time in searching stocks and thinking about it and I follow fairly simple approach.

I invest only when stock markets decline significantly and other people start selling.


I buy stocks that show continuously growing “Quarter to Quarter” earnings with less than the market PE.


If markets go down continuously, then I continue to average till I exhaust 60 % of my intended investment.


If the market plummets like the one we saw in March 09, then I buy for at least 30% of my intended investment.


My intended investment amount in fact rises when the stock markets reach unbelievable lows.


I look for companies that do not show any prospects for failure and businesses that can be sustained over a period of time.


I look for companies that do not have many straight competitors.


Finally I just keep watching my returns when the stock markets go up.

My overall portfolio has given the return of about 30% (Started investing when the SENSEX was around 17000 last year) and I do think that’s not bad. But my new portfolio which I started investing when the SENSEX were around 8000 - 10000, has given me 60 % return which is not bad either and I am not far away from the market performance. Markets have gained 45% from 10000 levels and 80% from 8000 levels. If we calculate exactly with my investment period, market return would be somewhere around 60% to 65 % and I am quite close to it. I have not lost a night’s sleep for all this and still could come close to it by doing what I said above. Though my return is in lakhs and not in crores, I definitely think that it can be achieved with the same approach, but with increased risk taking ability and guts. If you can do it with lakhs, I do not see any reason why you can’t do it with crores.

Some people can argue that if I have invested in selective stocks I could have earned in multiples which I agree. Even I bought “YES BANK” for Rs.42 and now it is traded for Rs.133 with an increase of 216 %. But my portfolio contains other stocks too which did not appreciate as much as stocks like Yes Bank. For example, I bought Asian Paints for Rs. 750 and now it is Rs. 1100, an increase of only 46%. Of course there are so many ifs and buts that could have made a difference. If I had bought HDIL when it was Rs. 62, I could have made 500 % return, but I did not want to invest heavily in the real estate sector. Likewise, there are so many examples. Aban Offshore was available for Rs. 220 and it went up to Rs.1100, an increase of 500%. But you can’t rely on just one stock if you are a serious investor and that’s the reason my portfolio return is 60 % which is in line with the market performance. That’s a good enough return for me for the time I spent and I can definitely say that’s my satisfaction point.

Conclusion: Make sure you do all the right and simple things in making a buy decision and continue with your defined approach. Do not get worried about the portfolio performance by comparing yourself with other investors or fund managers. If you buy when others are selling and remain cautious when the market bounces back, then you have a fair chance of getting a market return if not beating it. Even if your portfolio gives 40% overall return and it is 15 % lesser than market return, there is no need to lose your sleep over it as your portfolio still returned decent profit which is higher than what you could have earned in other form of investments. So, the point I am making is, whatever return we get after making a decent effort should satisfy us and I refer it as the “satisfaction point”.


Kumaran Seenivasan

http://www.stockanalysisonline.com/



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http://www.stockanalysisonline.com/2009_06_01_archive.html

Quarterly Results

Sunday, July 19, 2009
Quarterly Results

Stock market investors very eagerly wait for the quarterly results and I would like to through some light in this regard why it is important for the investors. Sure, we know that companies have to perform well financially but we also need to understand that it is very difficult to announce the market beating results every time. So, quarterly results are one among the many that we need to keep watching to understand the companies.

Quarterly Result

Quarterly result is the short term financial performance of a company which helps the management as well as the retail investors to understand the progress of a company. Companies typically announce the quarterly results four times a year and the results can be found in the company website or with SEBI or in any brokerage firm’s website.



Quarterly results can often be misleading and it is very important to pay careful attention. Example: Recent Quarterly result by L & T. On the outset, the result says that the company has earned Rs.27 a share for the first quarter of 2009-10 period. But if we look at the statement carefully, we can see clearly the result includes a one time exceptional gain of Rs.1020 Crores through the Ultra Tech stake sale. Excluding the exceptional gains, per share earnings would be just Rs.10 for this quarter.

Short and Medium Term Investors

Quarterly results are very important for short and medium term investors while the magnitude of importance decreases for the long term investors. It is also very important for the investors who are thinking to stay for a long term but are just starting. For the short and medium term investors, it helps to either maximize the profit or minimize the loss as the stock price shows volatility based on the result most often than not. In the short term, stock price heavily depends on the market sentiment, external forces like budget and rainfall, and company performance like quarterly results. So, if you are a short term investors, you do not want to take the risk of investing in a company whose recent quarterly income stays in the negative.

If you are a medium term investor, quarterly results help churn the portfolio. In the medium term, if we see or anticipate a bad result, then we can sell those stocks and buy stocks that are promising and are expected to announce good results. If the company is good, and we are able to anticipate the bad result, then we can sell before the result and buy it back after the result when the stock price comes down. Sometimes, great companies fail to announce good result in one quarter and prices comedown significantly. Times like those offer very good opportunity for investors to buy them at a low price.

Long Term Investors

Quarterly result again helps in many ways for the long term investors. If you are thinking to keep invested for a long term but just starting, quarterly results help you to select good stocks and build a great portfolio. But what about the long term investors who have already invested? In fact quarterly results many times are not that important for the long term investors who already invested, had they selected good stocks in the first place. But it is not always possible to build a portfolio without some average stocks. So, quarterly results help those investors in couple of ways. They can either sell the companies that have announced bad results and are expected to decline going forward or they can rejig the portfolio by selling average stocks and then invest back the money in good companies.

But if you are a long term investor, and have selected the stocks after careful consideration and fundamentals remain very strong, then you do not need to worry about the quarterly results till you reach your target price. Because, it is not possible to announce great results all the time and companies might encounter either operational or marketing or administrative difficulties in some quarters and are bound to announce bad results. But if you are a smart investor, you have to grab that opportunity to accumulate the stock rather than panicking and selling the stocks that you currently hold.

Recent Results

Most of the Indian companies have announced good results this quarter and that has made experts all over the world to believe in the so called “India story”. Companies like Axis Bank, Infosys, TCS, L&T, Opto Circuits, Colgate, Crompton Greaves, Welspun Gujarat, PFC, HDFC Bank, Indowind Energy, and Geojit, have announced decent results if not exceptional. In fact Indian companies have been announcing decent results throughout this recession period which makes me believe that the stock market might reach new highs in the next five year period. Long term investors can buy some selective stocks even now and they would be up for a good return if they stick with it. Most of the Indian companies are managed with a conservative mindset which reduces the potential risks associated with business in general. Hence, India is poised to attract more FII investments and once they start buying, our domestic funds and institutional investors will show more interest and that would be the crazy next Bull Run.



Kumaran Seenivasan.

http://www.stockanalysisonline.com/

http://www.stockanalysisonline.com/2009_07_01_archive.html

Investment Prudence: Dividend Paying Stocks

Friday, August 14, 2009
Investment Prudence: Dividend Paying Stocks


Investors follow many different approaches towards investment and this post is for the investors who would like to preserve the capital first and gets satisfied with decent return through capital gains. In fact many legendary investors have followed this strategy and they have been mostly successful. Yes. I am talking about investing in the “high dividend paying stocks”.

What is Dividend?

It’s the portion of corporate profit paid to shareholders by a company. High dividend yielding stocks usually have high reputation among defensive investors. It’s widely believed that a company is effectively managed if the shareholders are paid dividends continuously.



Approach

The notion that high dividend yielding stocks do not appreciate much is not entirely true at least if we look at the stocks I have mentioned below. All of these stocks performed well over the year apart from paying out decent dividend yields.

Madras Cement
Graphite India
Varun Shipping
GE Shipping
Ambuja Cements
MIRC Electronics
Chambal Fertilizers
HCL Technologies
Tata Steel
Tata Tea
Lakshmi Machine Works
Shipping Corporation
GAIL India Ltd
Sesa Goa
Canara Bank
Bank of Baroda
Punjab National Bank
Hindustan Unilever Ltd
Marico Ltd
Indian Overseas Bank

If you are a long term investor and do not have high appetite for risk, then investing in the “high dividend” yielding stocks not only protects part of your capital but also gives you decent return. I will explain with an example.

Ex: Varun Shipping

Assume that you bought 1000 shares of Varun Shipping at Rs. 40 / share. Total investment comes out to be about 40000 thousand rupees. Assume that you are a long term investor and have plans to hold the stock for next five years. Varun Shipping has the history of paying Rs. 5 – 6 per share as a dividend (50 % of the face value) every year and we assume Rs. 5 / year as the dividend for next 5 years.

First Year Dividend: Rs. 5 / share (Rs. 5000 / 1000 shares). The dividend yield itself is 12.5%. Even if your Cost price was Rs.50 per share, the dividend yield would be 10 % which some stocks do not even give as a capital gain. Suppose you deposit this Rs. 5000 in a bank and you get 7% as interest. You get Rs.350 as interest and the total amount for the first year is Rs.5350.

Second Year Dividend: Rs. 5 / share (Rs. 5000 / 1000 shares). Add this amount with the first year amount. Rs. 5000 + Rs. 5350 = Rs. 10350. Interest at 7% for Rs. 10350 is Rs. 725 and the total amount at the end of second year is Rs. 11075.

Third Year Dividend: Rs. 5 / Share. Do the same calculation. Rs. 11075 + Rs. 5000 = Rs. 16075. Interest at 7% for Rs. 16075 = 1125. Total amount at the end of Third year = Rs.17200.

If we follow the same calculation, we will have Rs. 31000 after 5 years which is 78% of your initial capital investment. This will go along with the capital gains that you get because of appreciation in stock value. If we assume that Varun Shipping matches the market performance which is around 15% CAGR, then we will have Rs. 81000 after 5 years and adding that with dividend + interest income will give Rs. 112000 as the total value of the investment after 5 years. The calculation is based on a conservative approach which gives 180 % return. But if the stock performs better than the market, then the return might well go above 200 % which should make most of the investors happy.

Similar stocks are available with similar dividend yield and investors with less risk appetite may opt for these kinds of stocks and follow the above explained strategy. In fact most of the stocks I mentioned above have performed better than the market and some are even in the aggressive investor’s portfolio. So, we just need to try this approach once to see the effectiveness.

Kumaran Seenivasan
http://www.stockanalysisonline.com/



http://www.stockanalysisonline.com/2009/08/investment-prudence-dividend-paying.html


My notes: The above explanation can be used for the local Malaysian stock of Guinness. :-)

3 important considerations when buying a stock

From my experience, there are three important things that influence the “health” of a stock market investor. What are they?

1)What price you paid for the stock?
2)Which company or stock you have bought?
3)How many of the same stock you bought?

Buffett: “It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price” and “Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing”.



http://www.stockanalysisonline.com/2009/08/investment-prudence-and-multi-bagger.html

Investment Prudence and “Multi Bagger” Concept

Saturday, August 1, 2009
Investment Prudence and “Multi Bagger” Concept

Investment in Stocks has been increasingly becoming very popular and one reason that everyone invests in stocks is to make money in multiples or at least better returns than any other form of investment. But do they end up getting that “dream” return in their investment? Yes and No. Some people do and some don’t. Investors who are very prudent with “stock market” patience usually complete the race while people who just come with expectation of making in millions by investing in mushrooming “Multi baggers” or doing futures and derivative trading, end up as a sorry figure. Stock investment can be compared to a Marathon rather than 100 meter dash.

Though I have not made in millions, I do feel that my investment has generated decent returns and more importantly, I have not lost single penny during one of the most difficult investment climate in history. From my experience, there are three important things that influence the “health” of a stock market investor. What are they?

1)What price you paid for the stock?
2)Which company or stock you have bought?
3)How many of the same stock you bought?

Investment Prudence

The price you pay for the stock is the single most important factor that not only decides your short term return but the long term success as well which is why I have mentioned it first. Why? Simply because, if we buy, even a average stock at a dirt cheap price, there is a chance to end up getting a decent return. But if you buy a great company at an exorbitant price, then you have dug a grave for yourself. But to be successful in stock investment, all three has to be in harmony with each other and may be that’s the reason Warren Buffet has mentioned I quote

“It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price” and “Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing”.

Real Example:

Investor Name: Rakesh Jhunjhunwala.

First Big profit stock: TATA TEA

Price paid for Tata Tea: Rs.43

Selling Price: Rs.143

Number of Shares: 5000

Profit Made: 5 Lakhs (715000 – 215000)

Duration: 3 months

My Experience

I actually had a similar experience recently but I have not made 5 lakhs simply because of the third reason (How many bought).

Investor Name: Myself

First Big profit stock: YES BANK

Price paid for YES Bank: Rs.42

Current Price: Rs.160

Number of Shares: 500

Current Profit (Still Holding): Rs.59, 000 (80000 - 21000)

Duration: 4 Months

Hope you see what difference the number of shares makes. So, all I want to mention here is not to go for too much diversification. If we find good stocks at a great price, we should buy it in huge quantities without even flinching for once. Had I bought 5000 shares of YES Bank, I would be worth 8 Lakhs from YES Bank alone. But I failed to take that extra risk which now gave me a lesson and good experience.

Had investors applied the above three things in the last 1 year period, I am pretty sure they could have found many “Multi Baggers”.

The concept of “Multi bagger” has been misinterpreted by many people. I read many articles where Small Cap stocks with good business potential have been mentioned as “Multi Baggers” and that’s where I beg to differ. Multi baggers can be found among large and midcaps as well.



Multi Bagger

By definition “Multi Bagger” is a stock that goes up in price multiple times of the initial investment. So, if we apply the definition as it is, then almost half of the big companies have been the “Multi Baggers” in this recession leading up to the current rally.

Example:

GRASIM: The price of GRASIM when the SENSEX was around 8000 in 2008 November - December period was Rs.831 and current price of the same stock is Rs.2740. It has appreciated more than 3 times.
BHEL: Rs.1000 to Rs.2300, 2.3 times appreciation.
Educomp Solutions: Rs.1400 to Rs.4100, 3 times appreciation.
Aban Offshore: Rs.250 to Rs.1050, 4 times appreciation.
Axis Bank: Rs.300 to Rs.900, 3 times appreciation
Asian Paints:Rs.700 to Rs.1415, 2 times appreciation (Defensive Stock)
Tata Steel: Rs.150 to Rs.460, 3 times appreciation
Sterlite Industries: Rs.170 to Rs.650, more than 3 times appreciation
ICICI Bank: Rs.255 to Rs.760, 3 times appreciation
Jaipraksh Associates: Rs.50 to Rs.250, 5 times appreciation

So, the notion that “Multi Baggers” are found only among small caps is wrong and I hope I have provided ample proof for that. In the above 10 examples, I have purposefully left out small caps and even if we take small caps into account, not many small caps have appreciated as much as what I listed above. Hence, I strongly feel that any stock that fits into the definition of “Multi Bagger” should be considered as a “Multi bagger” and my suggestion for retail investors is to practice the three things that I mentioned in the first section which will give an opportunity to find less risky “Multi Baggers” from the pool of large caps. Only thing is investors need to grab the opportunity that "Mr. Market" presents.

Your sincere comments and discussions are invited.

Kumaran Seenivasan
http://www.stockanalysisonline.com/


http://www.stockanalysisonline.com/2009/08/investment-prudence-and-multi-bagger.html

Peter Lynch Quotes

Peter Lynch Quotes

There are substantial rewards for adopting a regular routine of investing and following it no matter what, and additional rewards for buying more shares when most investors are scared into selling.


The key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them.


If you're prepared to invest in a company, then you ought to be able to explain why in simple language that a fifth grader could understand, and quickly enough so the fifth grader won't get bored.


In stocks as in romance, ease of divorce is not a sound basis for commitment.


There's no shame in losing money on a stock. Everybody does it. What is shameful is to hold on to a stock, or, worse, to buy more of it, when the fundamentals are deteriorating.


Stock picking can't be reduced to a simple formula or a recipe that guarantees success if strictly adhered to.


A person infatuated with measurement, who has his head stuck in the sand of the balance sheets, is not likely to succeed.


In business, competition is never as healthy as total domination.


Investing is fun, exciting, and dangerous if you don't do any work.


Your investor's edge is not something you get from Wall Street experts. It's something you already have. You can outperform the experts if you use your edge by investing in companies or industries you already understand.

Performance of Top Glove since listing

Low Price in 2001: 0.27 (Price Range: 0.27 - 0.61)
Low Price in 2009: 3.58 (Price Range: 3.58 - 7.50)
Investing Period: 8 years

Over the course of 8 periods your investment grew from $0.27 to $3.58, its compound annual growth rate, or its overall return, is 38.14%.

Price increased 13.3 x, giving a gain of 1230%.

-----

High Price in 2001: 0.61 (Price Range: 0.27 - 0.61)
Low Price in 2009: 3.58 (Price Range: 3.58 - 7.50)
Investing Period: 8 years

Over the course of 8 periods your investment grew from $0.61 to $3.58, its compound annual growth rate, or its overall return, is 24.76%.

Price increased 5.8 x, giving a gain of 480%.

-----

High Price in 2001: 0.61 (Price Range: 0.27 - 0.61)
High Price in 2009: 7.50 (Price Range: 3.58 - 7.50)
Investing Period: 8 years

Over the course of 8 periods your investment grew from $0.61 to $7.50, its compound annual growth rate, or its overall return, is 36.84%.

Price increased 12.3 x, giving a gain of 1130%.

-----

Low Price in 2001: 0.27 (Price Range: 0.27 - 0.61)
High Price in 2009: 7.50 (Price Range: 3.58 - 7.50)
Investing Period: 8 years

Over the course of 8 periods your investment grew from $0.27 to $7.50, its compound annual growth rate, or its overall return, is 51.52%.

Price increased 27.8 x, giving a gain of 2680%.

-----

CAGR essentially smoothes out the progress of your investment over a period of time, providing a clearer picture of your annual return. However, although your investment started at $0.27 and ended with $3.58, its growth in any one year may have been quite a bit higher or even negative (if the investment ever lost money over that time). Consequently, the CAGR figure may give the impression that the investment has produced a stable return throughout its life, even if the investment was extremely volatile, fluctuating a great deal from year to year.


The above illustrates the importance of buying at a low price. Buying at a low price provides a margin of safety and magnifies the gains.

Challenges:

How can you spot a similar stock early in its business life?
Will you be able to put a large investment into such a stock?
Will you be able to stay the course without selling out, to capture all the gains from compounding at rates ranging from 24.76% to 51.52%?

Multiple baggers in KLSE

Here is a spreadsheet of the top multiple bagger stocks in KLSE for the 10 year period from 1999 to 2009.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=t_fTtRGB_8FXvEh7RIPU_pQ&output=html

There are only 2 ten baggers over this period, namely Top Glove and Mah Sing. A close third is IOI Corp.

All multiple baggers give dividend in varying amounts. Among these multiple baggers, DLady, PBB and PPB occupy the top 3 places in terms of dividend yields.

A doubling of a share price of $1 to $2 equates to a gain of 100%. Another doubling of the share price from $2 to $4 equates to a gain of 300%. Doubling again from $4 to $8, gives a gain of 700%.

Having a 10 bagger in your portfolio equates to a gain 900%. That means the share have at least doubled more than 3x from its initial share price, thus, 2 x 2 x 2 x ... .

It is therefore not surprising that a 10 bagger is a rarity over a short investing time frame. Moreover, a 10 bagger over a 10 year investing period (1999 - 2009) is a rare event in KLSE as per data above. Although it is possible over a very long time frame, many investors would have sold off the stocks to capture the gains much earlier.


Did you recently ride on this 10 bagger depicted below?

MEANING OF TEN BAGGER --Discussion

MEANING OF TEN BAGGER --Discussion


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whiteheron02-03-2006, 08:17 PM
The definition of a TEN BAGGER is "a stock whose value increases ten times"

The expression was originated by Peter Lynch , one of the greatest investors of all time

So far , so good --- but nowhere can I find any really meangingful reference to the time period allowed to score a ten bagger
A year would seem most unlikely , except in the most extreme of cases
A decade maybe --- this would seem pretty damm good
Fifty years --- one would probably expect any reasonable stock to be a ten bagger in this time , given good returns , compounding , inflation etc

So a simplistic statement does not , in my opinion , address the matter fully ( and I wont be around for another 50 years for that option anyway )

So far I have been investing ( and trading ) for under 4 years and have achieved less than a handful of 2 to 3+ baggers , and one real " bugger "

I would like to hear what others have to say on this subject

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Halebop02-03-2006, 08:47 PM
As you allude, I think the term is irrelevent without a timeframe.

I've enjoyed just 1 ten bagger in 20+ years of investing. It might have been something more like a 20 or 30 bagger but took around a decade to realize and several additional purchases along the way muddied the final return calculations.

Given an "Oustanding" long term investment might generate 20% per annum, it's quite a reach to achieve a 10 bagger over even a decade. So I suspect the term just resonates more with an individual than actually being any useful benchmark.

If someone can beat some meaningful benchmarks like an index they should be well satisfied. My targets include beating the All Ords and NZX year on year, beating inflation and an absolute (positive) return.

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Mick10004-03-2006, 09:07 PM
I had one last yr and have another couple getting close - all from 2003 investments

I'm expecting 10 baggers to become as common as mud over the next 5-10 yrs for those people invested in resources
,

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Lawso10-03-2006, 06:11 PM
GEN - bought @ an average of 350, sold for 35. Clearly a 10 bugger [V]

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duncan macgregor10-03-2006, 06:33 PM
ONLY SHARE THAT SPRINGS TO MIND IS POISIDEN. A fifty cent share that went to over $230-00 and back again in the late sixties in Australia.
macdunk.
Ps i was to bloody smart to buy in to it YUCK.

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Dazza13-03-2006, 03:27 PM
CAZ
10 bagger there :P

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Sideshow Bob13-03-2006, 04:22 PM
Think the hardest thing would be not to sell before getting 10x the buy-in price.

Know I would take the money & run well before that!

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kittydashwood19-03-2006, 02:49 PM
Selling down incrementally leaves you a small final slice that can easy get to ten bags.XSNX was my most recent.

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Mick10011-04-2006, 07:21 PM
Got another one today

BSG - accumulated on the dips in 03, 04 and 05
,

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whiteheron11-04-2006, 07:29 PM
Mick 100

I have had a history of getting out of winners far too early
eg BSG , purchased about 30c and cashed in at 90c

Now trying hard to overcome this tendency --- but I suppose better to get out at a healthy profit than hang on to a loser and suffer a heavy loss

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Mick10011-04-2006, 07:47 PM
Yeah, the idea is to get a balance WH
I'v hung on to a couple of losers far too long, TRO, CRS

I'm beginning to appreciate good stable managment more than ever with regards to my speculative shares.
BSG have had their share of problems in the early days while their main stay operations were in Georgia But they always seem to manage to turn a bad situation into a good situation - I put that down to, not good luck but rather, good managment.
,

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whiteheron11-04-2006, 08:10 PM
My worst experience was with GTM (now CME )
Cost me plenty , but in this game the best lessons often cost !

On the other hand I have/have had some real winners eg AWE , BHP sold too early , EXS .

MMN has been pretty good too --- have bought and sold since around 10c
Now have 15,000 shares worth about $6,600 , at a cost of negative $2,400

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OldRider15-04-2006, 08:17 AM
There are apparently various ideas about what the "10 bagger" tag means, can I toss in the idea that it could be as much a reflection of poor investment decisions as good ones.

If we try to be aboard winners we should be buying stocks on a steady climb, if this is done it is difficult to ever reach a 10 bagger, where the criteria is total gain is divided by total cost, for the percentage gain deteriorates on further purchases.

An example from my statistics, AVM from an initial purchase under 10c has reached 10 bagger status, however, several additional purchases leaves it well down at round four times cost.

So while feeling good over a 10 bagger, reality could be a missed opportunity.

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Mick10015-04-2006, 02:22 PM
quote:Originally posted by OldRider

There are apparently various ideas about what the "10 bagger" tag means, can I toss in the idea that it could be as much a reflection of poor investment decisions as good ones.

If we try to be aboard winners we should be buying stocks on a steady climb, if this is done it is difficult to ever reach a 10 bagger, where the criteria is total gain is divided by total cost, for the percentage gain deteriorates on further purchases.

An example from my statistics, AVM from an initial purchase under 10c has reached 10 bagger status, however, several additional purchases leaves it well down at round four times cost.

So while feeling good over a 10 bagger, reality could be a missed opportunity.






Not so Old rider
My definition of 10 bagger is 10 times your average buy price
I bought BSG in three parcles
2003, parcle 1 @ 19c
2004, parcle 2 @ 26.5c
2005, parcle 3 @ 47c ( this was a small parcle)

average price of 26.1c

The moral of the story - buy right and sit tight

PS, I have another one getting close - will keep you informed
,

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OldRider15-04-2006, 05:13 PM
Mick100:

I guess you would be happier had you purchased an even larger parcel at 47c or even another later at a higher price, to have not reached 10 bagger status yet, but be better off, and viewing the investment as even better choice.

You may well be correct about my definition, nonetheless you confirmed my real point, that averaging up on a sound stock delays reaching 10 bagger status, but this does not reflect badly on the decisions.

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whiteheron15-04-2006, 08:13 PM
There are many ways to look at this matter in my opinion

As I see it , just because you average up ( a good strategy on a top class stock ) does not take away from having a 10 bagger on your first or early parcels purchased , with lesser baggers on subsequent parcels purchased

Hard learned lessons have taught me that averaging up is much smarter than averaging down

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Lawso17-04-2006, 10:51 AM
quote:Hard learned lessons have taught me that averaging up is much smarter than averaging down
Words of wisdom from whiteheron. Unless you've done the homework and are convinced that the company concerned is still sound, averaging down is a way of chucking good money after bad.

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davidrob02-05-2006, 09:20 PM
Hi guys,

Four quick reflections / ideas .

(1) Ten Bagger seeking (in a 12 month framework) ....imo.... can be potentially dangerous to long term compounding results....


(2) Interesting to compare compounding say 120% increases over an average of say 12 shares, rolled over a few times, and statisticaly comparing the average median result -- to attempting to get 12 individual "10 baggers".

(3) Agree with Mick.... that "stable" management.... is as important as stock selection, in mnay respects.


(4) I think.... what Mick is probably saying -- ??--- ....... Do correct me if I am wrong.... is that what Mick is saying ....is that "money management"..... is as important a "key skill set" to wealth through shares ......as is "stock picking"....

Kindest Regards,

Robbo:)






quote:Originally posted by Mick100

Yeah, the idea is to get a balance WH
I'v hung on to a couple of losers far too long, TRO, CRS

I'm beginning to appreciate good stable managment more than ever with regards to my speculative shares.
BSG have had their share of problems in the early days while their main stay operations were in Georgia But they always seem to manage to turn a bad situation into a good situation - I put that down to, not good luck but rather, good managment.
,

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bel03-05-2006, 02:34 PM
quote:Originally posted by davidrob

(4) I think.... what Mick is probably saying -- ??--- ....... Do correct me if I am wrong.... is that what Mick is saying ....is that "money management"..... is as important a "key skill set" to wealth through shares ......as is "stock picking"....
:)

Well considering the stories of other apes picking stocks just as well as fund managers then i would definately agree that knowing money management is as equal to or more important than the actual stocks that are picked.




quote:Originally posted by Mick100

Yeah, the idea is to get a balance WH
I'v hung on to a couple of losers far too long, TRO, CRS

I'm beginning to appreciate good stable managment more than ever with regards to my speculative shares.
BSG have had their share of problems in the early days while their main stay operations were in Georgia But they always seem to manage to turn a bad situation into a good situation - I put that down to, not good luck but rather, good managment.
,

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

belgarion03-05-2006, 06:16 PM
10-baggers come most often in ....

1) recovery stocks where fear is so bad you can smell it

2) small non-mainboard companies (have excluded private companies)

3) start-ups where the business model/product is so new that people just don't get it (these can also be small non-mainboard companies too)

4) and, of course, penny-dreadfuls ...

I like 1 and 3.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dazza27-05-2006, 12:13 AM
my CAZ 10 bagger, turned out to be a 1 bagger ><

have cashed in now.

ARUO - from 1 bagger to 0 bagger ><

still holding ARUO though.

Potential 10 baggers for me at this moment:

ARUO
EXT
AEX
WMEO
UNX
TOX
BRO

just like belg said,


bro is #3

tox is #1

and the uranium are well number 4 i guess :P

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

trackers22-08-2006, 04:57 PM
I'll never achieve a 10 bagger..

I will achieve 10 1 baggers :)

work out 10k doubled 7 times ;)


http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/archive/index.php?t-3344.html

Hunting Lynch's 10-Baggers

Published January 26, 2006
by Jack Hough (Author Archive)

Hunting Lynch's 10-Baggers

PETER LYNCH SOUGHT and captured stock returns so large that he created a new terminology to discuss his winners. In his 1989 stock-picking primer "One Up On Wall Street," the former Fidelity Magellan fund manager used the word "10-bagger" to describe a stock that increased ten-fold in value. Dunkin' Donuts and Pep Boys (PBY: 8.70, +0.20, +2.35%) are examples of 10-baggers Lynch owned for Magellan. Magellan itself was a 28-bagger during his 13 years at the helm.

Lynch would seem a perfect inspiration, then, for a guru-style stock screen, one based on the investment strategies of a renowned investor. There's one hitch, though: Not all guru strategies lend themselves neatly to screening.

For example, aside from the term "10-bagger," Lynch is perhaps best known for the phrase "buy what you know." Many of his picks came from companies with products or services he used. A stock screener, of course, can't test for what you know. In fact, it does quite the opposite. A stock screener excels at judging companies based not on personal preferences, but on a cold calculus of their financial statements.

Fortunately, Lynch used plenty of hard metrics, too, and these give us some guidelines for how to build our screen. Rather than use a one-size-fits-all approach, he broke companies into six classes. These include slow growers, stalwarts, cyclicals, turnarounds, asset opportunities and fast growers. Of the last type, he wrote, "If you choose wisely, this is the land of the 10- to 40-baggers, and even the 200-baggers." Sounds like fast-growers are for us.

Spotlight Stock
Quality Systems (QSII)
Develops and markets health-care information systems that automate medical and dental practices, physician and hospital organizations, management service organizations and community health centers, among others.
Thursday's Close $79.86
Market Value $1.1 billion
Trailing 12-Month Sales $105 million
Forward P/E 47
Proj. Long-Term EPS Growth Rate 30%
Additional Data:
Earnings Financials Key Ratios Ratings Insiders

Fast growers are small, aggressive new enterprises growing at 20% to 25% a year, according to Lynch. We'll call "small" anything with a market value below $5 billion. And we'll look for companies that have boosted their sales and earnings by at least 20% apiece for the past three years, and which are projected to boost their earnings by at least 20% in their current fiscal year. Already, these demands reduce our database of more than 8,000 stocks to a mere 99.

Lynch called companies with little or no institutional ownership potential winners, and companies with scant analyst coverage double-winners. So we'll look for companies where institutions own no more than 40% of outstanding shares and are followed by no more than four analysts. That leaves 17 stocks.

Of course, our screen survivors should be affordable and financially stable. Since Lynch liked to compare companies' price/earnings ratios with their earnings growth rates, we'll do so by looking for price/earnings-to-growth, or PEG, ratios (P/E divided by long-term earnings growth projection) that are below 1.7. (The broad market's average PEG is about 1.5.) And we'll require that debt/capital ratios be no higher than 0.5.

That leaves us with a mere 11 stocks. Use our stock screener anytime to run the search for yourself. We've preloaded it into the pull-down menu of screen recipes.

Note that three of our screen survivors were 2005 picks. Pet Meds (PETS: 55.13, +0.94, +1.73%) is up a tail-thumping 56% since we called it "the most promising pick of the litter" in October (see "Such a Good Buy, Yes You Are"). Kitchen gadgeteer Lifetime Brands (LCUT), which we highlighted just last month ("The Chance of a Lifetime") is already up 8%, despite a flat performance for the market. And we really shouldn't tell you how far circuit-board maker MultiFineline Electronix (MFLX) has climbed since we described its valuation as "wafer thin" in March ("M-Flex Inside"). But if you must know: 168%, mocking the market's 8% increase.

Let's look now at another of the Lynch screen's survivors. Quality Systems (QSII) is the kind of company name that could just as easily describe a hydraulics outfit as it could a maker of hot-dog casings. In fact, it makes health-care information systems — software used by private-practice doctors and network participants to manage their patient care and billing. The company's NextGen suite tracks patient information, manages appointment scheduling and referrals, stores prescriptions and clinical images, prints bills and letters and goes after insurer reimbursements. It also prints educational materials for patients and efficiency reports for doctors.

NextGen brings in more than 85% of Quality Systems' sales — not exactly income-stream diversification. But one-product companies whose products are hot can produce stunning gains, both in their earnings and their share prices. In its second quarter, which ended Sept. 30, Quality Systems' sales and earnings jumped 39% and 56%, respectively, over the same quarter last year. Over the past year, the company has produced an operating margin of nearly 29% on sales of $105 million. The average operating margin for health-care information companies is below 5%.

Quality Systems' stock has already been a two-plus-bagger over the past year, a seven-bagger over the past three years and an 18-bagger over the past five. The trio of analysts who cover the stock expect the company to boost its earnings by 40% in its fiscal 2006, which ends March 31, and by 26% in fiscal 2007. Over the next five years, they're looking for annual earnings growth of 30%. That helps make the stock's 2006 P/E of 47 seem reasonable. Scalp the $5 a share Quality Systems holds in cash off of its $80 share price, and you end up with an even more reasonable P/E of 44. (The company is debt-free.)

Those numbers give Quality Systems shares a PEG ratio of 1.57 or 1.46, depending on whether you factor in the cash. The company's closest competitors, Cerner (CERN) and Amicas (AMCS), carry PEGs of 1.66 and 7.36, respectively. (Though in fairness, the latter number is skewed by the company's low earnings base, thanks to its recent swing to profitability.)

All told, the numbers we're seeing on Quality Systems say bag these shares before they head any higher.

Jack Hough is an associate editor at SmartMoney.com and author of "Your Next Great Stock."


http://www.smartmoney.com/investing/stocks/Hunting-Lynchs-10-Baggers-18937/

7 Stocks That Could Be 10-Baggers

In early October, 2002, I went to visit two guys who were running a small hedge fund of about $10 million. They had been short Ford (F) and GM (GM) and a number of other stocks.

I asked them what their view of the world was. I told them I was bullish, but they laughed and said, "That’s because you’re always bullish. When are you ever bearish?" They said, "It’s about to hit the fan. We are massively short everything. America is going down."

(As an aside, both of these guys are in jail now. One wouldn’t testify against the other, so he got the larger sentence. The other guy (who was actually the boss) will be out in a year or so. The crime had nothing to do with their hedge fund but with a currency brokerage firm they had been running for 20 years that turned out to be a massive scam. The incident above was the last time I ever spoke to them, and a few weeks later, I saw that the FBI had arrested them and about 30 others in a multiyear sting operation.)

The point is, the world was falling apart in October 2002. Criminals and sociopaths were slitting the throat of America in an attempt to make money on the short side. Back then, inflation wasn’t a worry but deflation. And "Helicopter Ben" was threatening to carpet bomb the economy with dollar bills.

How does one do that? By cutting rates. By backing debt at the esoteric parts of the yield curve. By bailing out failing banks. By opening the discount window to banks and lower beasts on the financial evolutionary curve. By even buying stock in a worst-case scenario.

At the time, there were about a dozen stocks trading for less than cash. In other words, they had, for example, $100 million in the bank and no debt, were profitable and had a market cap less than $100mm. A little company called TheStreet.com was an example of such a stock.

In December 2002, I wrote an article about these stocks for the now-deceased Street Insight, which was later folded into RealMoney Silver. People laughed at me. "They trade below cash for a reason. " I was mocked. Children at my kids’ schools spit in their faces.

Five years later, many of these stocks (for example, ValueClick (VCLK)) were up more than 1,000%.

Now it’s happening again. The same sickness that convinced people that our way of life was a life gone wayward has again spread its bacteria into our heads. So here are my five stocks that I think can double, and perhaps double after that.

None of these is Microsoft (MSFT) or Google (GOOG) or Research In Motion (RIMM). Those are the debutantes at the ball. What follows are the rejects that were never even invited to the party.

Adaptec (ADPT) makes storage products. It has a $383 million market cap and $400 million net cash. The company was GAAP break-even last quarter, and non-GAAP it made $5.7 million in income. So people can buy a profitable company right now and put $17 million in their pockets with the excess cash.

It may not be so simple, but it’s still dirt cheap with a margin of safety. Steel Partners
has been buying millions of dollars worth of stock in Adaptec.

HouseValues (SOLD) has $63 million cash, a $65 million market cap and a break-even to profitable business. Good play on any sort of housing snapback and zero chance it goes out of business. Uber-hedge fund Renaissance Technologies is one of its largest shareholders.

Forget Baidu.com (BIDU). Ninetowns (NINE) is the best B2B Internet play in China. It facilitates the online process of importing and exporting goods to and from China. It has a $69 million market cap and $115 million net cash. Again, Renaissance has been loading up on this stock.

Heelys (HLYS) makes those shoes with wheels. It has a $105 million market cap, $100 million cash and no debt. It’s growing huge in Europe and is about to introduce sneakers without wheels. If anyone knows where I can get a pair of those shoes with wheels, please tell me. Apparently the demographic that most wants the sneakers is men over thirty.

If you want a stock with cash flows, check out 4 P/E Crocs (CROX). But Heelys is interesting to me because of the cash levels. And once again, our best friends at Renaissance (a fund that was up 73% last year after fees) is long Heelys.

Premier Exhibitions (PRXI), with a $100 market cap, makes the Bodies exhibit. It also run the Titanic exhibits. There are $3 billion worth of Titanic artifacts sitting on the ocean floor. Premier happens to own the rights to all of those artifacts and has already excavated $100 million worth. There are issues with where the bodies are coming from for the Bodies exhibit, but Premier settled with the New York attorney general, and it may not affect the $17 million in cash flows Premier is generating from these exhibits.

Also check out Entertainment Distribution (EDCI). It has $40 million in net cash, and the company is yours for a meager $35 million. Three of my favorites -- activist investor Chapman Capital, Daniel Loeb’s Third Point and Renaissance -- have all been loading up on shares of this company, which is essentially trading for $0. And before I forget: It is EBITDA-positive.

Zapata (ZAP) has $154 million of cash in the bank and no debt, and you can buy the entire company for $135 million. Not only that, it had $2 million in operating cash flow last year, and Renaissance is a small shareholder.

Sure, all of these stocks are ugly. They look in the mirror, and all they see is scars from a lifetime of malnourishment and poor hygiene. Don’t put all your eggs in this basket. But all it takes is one 10-bagger, and all the rest can go to zero, and you’ve just made 45% on your money.


http://www.stockpickr.com/problog/733/

Returns of up to 400% annually. Is this possible?

Investment Question:

I've heard some "market gurus" claim returns of up to 400% annually. Is this possible?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


To answer your question in a word: No! Although we wish such a phenomenal investment system were real, the claims you speak of are preposterous. Most "gurus" are nothing more than salespeople trying to push a product that, despite what they say, does not work.

Anyone promising annual returns of more than 400% is one of two things: dishonest or extremely dumb. If these people truly had such a great system, do you think they would waste their time trying to sell it for four measly payments of $24.99?

Let's do some quick math. Say you had this secret formula and invested $1,000 into it. If it returned 400% for five years in a row, you would have $1,024,000 (through the magic of compounding). Before long, you'd be on Forbes' billionaire list, along with true market guru Warren Buffett. Clearly, anyone with a foolproof system providing such astronomical returns would not need to put on seminars or sell books for what would be pocket change.

The truth is that many systems out there base their historical performance on backtesting. In other words, they test obscure strategies on historical data, and then use the theoretical returns in their marketing copy. Other swindlers trying to sell you something may report short-term gains as annualized gains. For example, they may have made 25% in a stock over four weeks which, sustained over a whole year, is an annualized gain of roughly 325%. But the chances of anyone being able to maintain 25% returns every four weeks over several years are pretty much nil.

Like anything we try to learn, investing doesn't work by cutting corners. Remember that the power of compounding is most effective over the long term. And, as the old saying goes, if something sounds too good to be true, chances are, it is.


http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tenbagger.asp

http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/04/030404.asp?viewed=1

What Does Tenbagger Mean?

Tenbagger: A stock whose value increases ten times its purchase price. This expression was coined by Peter Lynch, one of the greatest investors of all time, in his book "One Up On Wall Street" (1989).

Investopedia explains Tenbagger
These types of returns are considered once-in-a-lifetime investments. Some of the most famous examples of tenbaggers include now blue-chip stocks like Wal-Mart, Hewlett-Packard and General Electric.

Many investors are constantly in search of the elusive tenbagger, but there isn't an exact science to discover tenbagger stocks.

Generally, these explosive companies are smaller companies (market cap under $1 billion) with large potential markets.

Over time, these companies grow into their potential markets, providing patient investors with handsome returns.

A China Penny Stock With Ten-Bagger Potential

A China Penny Stock With Ten-Bagger Potential
August 13, 2009

By Jamie Dlugosch, Editor, Penny Stock Winners



Feeding China's billions is Job #1 for Beijing, make no mistake. China is always, always, one typhoon away from utter social collapse.

China cheerleaders won't tell you this, of course. Last year's horrible earthquake revealed the ugly truth: Beijing's hold on power is very conditional.

Rice and pork, not cars and phones, are what motivate 1,530,000,000 Chinese.

Following this theme led me at first to a fertilizer company, China Green (CGA), but the stock's run from $2 to $13 happened too quickly for my taste.

Nevertheless, a seed company I discovered in Beijing is perfectly poised to jump from $4.50 to $15 quickly, and even $45 down the road.

Rice Price Jumps 50%

Rice, the staple crop of Asia, is racing for a 34-year high, and the reason is: Supply cannot meet demand.

India is unofficially in a drought. Australia is officially so.

Prices have jumped 50% recently. Hardest hit: the Philippines, by far the world's largest rice importer.

Worldwide famine and massive civil unrest are real possibilities at this point.

This China Seed Company Is at the Forefront

Origin Agritech (SEED) designs rice that is drought-resistant, flood-resistant, bug-resistant. One blight in particular, known as Xoo, can destroy a rice paddy in a matter of days.

Origin Agritech holds the key to combating Xoo and has all the advantages that spell a 10-to-1 return:

It's small — a few hundred employees, $103 million market cap.
It has no analyst coverage.
Deferred revenues are up 57% for the first 3 months.
Earnings, which were released on Tuesday, show an income increase of 21%. The stock jumped 16%.


What to Do Now
Buy SEED up to $5.00 with a stop at $3.88

http://www.investorplace.com/experts/james_dlugosch/articles/china-penny-stock-origin-agritech-seed.html

10 Bagger Anyone?

08-05-2009

10 Bagger Anyone?

Interesting Stuff from the Bespoke Investment Group
Reply


With the current rally now at five months and ticking, there are a number of stocks that have really taken off, and they continue to gain momentum. In the last bull market from '02-'07, many new momentum names emerged from the prior bear -- TASR, ISRG, GOOG, TZOO, NTRI, BOOM, HANS, etc. Now some new stars are being born, and if the market continues its run for another few months, these names will be even more present on trader's screens. The fact that 332 stocks in the Russell 3,000 are up more than 100% year to date (more than 10% of the index) shows just how strong this rally has been. Investors lucky enough to own any of these 332 stocks have at least doubled their money in seven months. Below we highlight the top 40 performing stocks in the index year to date. Every single one is up more than 400% already! Talk about winners.

As we mentioned earlier, DDRX is up the most with a gain of 6,738.89%. DDRX is followed by VNDA (2,954%), ATSG (1,783%), DTG (1,486%), and CAR (1,161%). The top five have all gone up tenfold. That's called a Ten Bagger.






http://www.fpstockchallenge.com/CS/forums/p/31845/294106.aspx

Canadian Stock Alerts - The 10 Bagger

Canadian Stock Alerts - The 10 Bagger

by Mike Perras

Just for reference I might as well qualify just what a 10 bagger is. Essentially it's a stock who's share price goes up 10 fold or 1000%.

Now since the BreX scandal days most might assume that this never happens anymore. And frankly I must admit it still surprises me when I see it, but yes it still happens to this day.

Let me share two Canadian 10 bagger stories:

Back on December 11, 2008, Ventana Gold (VEN.TO) was still just a teenager as I like to call it. Meaning it was trading at just .20 . Now move the clock forward to June 2009, just six months later and that .20 stock is now trading at $5.00 . So 50,000 shares that you bought just 6 months ago for $10,000.00 would today be worth $250,000.00

So in fact Ventana is not a 10 bagger at all, but more like a 25 bagger. 10 baggers are rare at best these days, but 25 baggers, it's like winning the lottery! But you had to wait a full six months to collect and you would have likely sold out long ago. I mean if you're honest here, you'll have to admit, hanging in from .20 to past $2.00 would be really stretching it.

But what if I told you it could happen in just two days. Well things seem to be going that way this week for Blackwatch Energy (BWT.TO) . On Wednesday June 9, 2009 it traded at just .10 and today Friday June 12, 2009 it closed at .98

In this case your 50,000 shares cost $5,000.00 on Wednesday and two days later are worth $50,000.00 Here's a kicker, you could have actually done all that in your TFSA! Yeah I know, just imagine it .. in just two days!

Now let me share two Canadian 10 bagger hopefuls:

There are a few juniors I like so far this year that I believe have great "bagger" potential. When you do your reseach on (TYE.V) TROYMET Exploration or (NET.V) Network Exploration you'll see what I see. NET and TYE are both great candidates!

But only the stock Gods know for sure.

Mike Perras manages the Canadian Stock Alerts blog. While these alerts are never meant as a recommendation to buy a particular stock, they are nonetheless a heads up or an alert to a certain potential positive trend.

Canadian Stock Alerts follows one major rule, follow the volume! When trading volume in any stock is higher than usual, a trend has been established. While the stock may go higher or lower is in fact irrelevant. Stocks that go higher, always pull back. Stocks that go lower are often oversold. In both cases alerts may be issued.


Mr. Perras always recommends trading on paper first before following any new investing strategy. Try it out, without using real money. When you can see first hand that this style of investing works and satisfies your own risk tolerance level, only then should you consider it a strategy you want to work with.

Canadian Stock Alerts does not receive any compensation whatsoever by any of the companies it issues alerts for. Alerts are issued in real time during market hours and follow the "higher than usual volume" rule always. One's own due diligence is always recommended when it comes to any kind of investing.

His system Best Stocks For Easy Profits is also available online. Take a look and see some real life examples.


About the Author
Mike Perras is a former media executive and faculty of business professor. Today he is a freelance writer and also manages several blogs including, Canadian Stock Alerts. He is a media specialist, as it relates to Organic Marketing, Article Marketing and New Age SEO.

You can find him on Twitter @ http://twitter.com/mikeperras


http://www.goarticles.com/cgi-bin/showa.cgi?C=1683053

Get back in the game

Dec 26, 2008, 12:33 p.m. EST

Get back in the game

Don't let woes disguise 10-bagger prospects

By John C. Dvorak
BERKELEY, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- So, what do we have to deal with as we enter 2009?

•An expensive war in Iraq, with no end in sight and no real exit strategy.

•A new president who wants to expand the war in Afghanistan.

•A financial crisis that will take what some estimate at $8 trillion to resolve.

•Falling home prices and a dead real-estate market.

•Money flow and credit to actual borrowers at a standstill as banks hoard bailout funds.

•The beginning of an all-Democrat, tax-happy government with control of both houses and the executive branch.

•Financial crises looming for major cities such as New York and states including California.

•Unemployment increasing every quarter.

•Decreasing U.S. productivity.

•Stock market generally depressed.

•All the American auto manufacturers are suffering and close to bankruptcy.

I suppose I could make this list longer, but it raises a question: Exactly how can it get worse than this? I suppose you could have a complete economic collapse, with every business going broke and unemployment reaching depression levels of over 25%.

No, let's face it. While 2009 could continue to be rocky, it can't get much worse than this, especially if Obama and the Democrats work some magic with a smoke and mirrors act to get people thinking positively.

Right now everyone is thinking negatively, and none of it is helped by our panicky government and its talk of economic meltdowns, food riots, martial law and other comments to freak out the citizenry.

Personally, I think the smart investor needs to get back into the game by looking for the rare, but obtainable 10-bagger -- as it is affectionately called. Yes, this is that normally rare stock that goes up by a factor of 10 within a short period of time.

Ideally a 10-bagger will go 10X within 24 months, but it can happen faster than that, too.

In a moment like this, when many major companies with good earnings, profits and growth are underpriced by all indications, the 10-baggers lurk.

And this is the time investors have to go to their scorecards and take a hard look at the reality of the numbers. Let's take a few of the best indicators and ratios and try to identify a stock with 10-bagger potential.

I'd like to find a stock with a high beta so it moves faster than the market so when the market turns around (and it always does) this stock will move fast.

Next, I want a stock selling within close range of its book value and with an enterprise value higher than its market cap. This would mean the company is intrinsically valuable and not deeply in debt.

In fact, using this criteria and confirming that the stock has been priced 10X in the past, you'll find dozens of matches, many to an extreme. The one that stands out in the tech sector is Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 4.53, +0.25, +5.84%) . The stock is now selling below book value and has been as high as $40, with its $20 (10-bagger) price having been reached within the past two years.

The downside risk is minimal. AMD is not going out of business anytime soon. It could be a buyout candidate at some price north of $8 perhaps. But it has 10-bagger written all over it until then.

While the market has mostly drifted since the dot-com collapse of 2000, this recent drop-off is the final exclamation point.

So it's time to go hunting for 10-baggers. I personally cannot see waiting much longer for even better prices.

As a disclaimer: I do not own any AMD. But I am drooling over the idea.


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/amd-is-the-10-bagger-pick-for-2009

Which Stocks Will Be 2020's 10-Baggers?

Which Stocks Will Be 2020's 10-Baggers?

August 20, 2009 3:00 AM ET advertisement

Name the company that's most likely to be a 10-bagger by 2020.

It's a hard question. There isn't just one correct answer -- you can find three candidates here -- but it's easy to weed out some popular incorrect answers.

If you named Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Deere (NYSE: DE), McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD), or any other large-cap company, you're probably wrong. They're simply too big to grow tenfold in the next decade. My Foolish colleague Tim Hanson has shown year in and year out that a decade's biggest winners are small-cap stocks.

He found that the largest grower of the last 10 years, beverage company Hansen Natural, was almost a 50-bagger. Even at 50 times its original market capitalization, Hansen is a $3 billion company -- one-sixth the size of Deere, a twentieth the size of McDonald’s, and a seventieth the size of Microsoft.

It gets better

Besides having room to grow, small caps have another hidden feature. They are more volatile than their large-cap brethren. This can lead to fluctuations that are absolutely heartbreaking for investors with low risk tolerances. But for those of us with higher risk tolerance, the volatility provides opportunity.

As we've seen recently, large-cap stocks can be quite volatile, too. When their price losses significantly outstrip the market's, though, there's usually something terribly amiss.

Familiar examples abound:

SunTrust Banks (NYSE: STI) -- BankingGannett (NYSE: GCI) -- NewspapersDish Network (Nasdaq: DISH) -- Satellite broadcastingSprint (NYSE: S) -- Telecom

All of the above are down for good reason, be it an ailing industry or a lagging competitive position. That’s not always the case for small caps, though.

A quick example

Take the recent case of restaurant company Buffalo Wild Wings. Back in late October, it reported quarterly earnings that were disappointing. But given the state of the economy in general and the restaurant sector specifically, the results were downright robust: positive earnings-per-share growth and impressive same-store sales growth (6.8% at company-owned stores).

In response, shares were sliced in half in the month following the earnings release ... only to gain it all back and then some after the company beat analyst expectations in the subsequent quarter. Over the past few months, it's been the same company with the same long-term prospects. There have been no huge company-related events, and its price is about the same now as it was a year ago.

But somewhere in the middle, the market threw a half-off sale for investors patient enough to wait for a discounted entry point. Since they took advantage of volatility, those investors need only a five-bagger from here to reach the vaunted 10-bagger status.

The 10-bagger club

In 2020, when we look back at the decade's list of 10-baggers, the list will be dominated by stocks that can be described as:

• Small
• Volatile

The list of investors who profit from these 10-baggers will be dominated by people who can be described as:

• Patient
• Risk-tolerant

If you have these two qualities, I invite you to join our analysts at the Motley Fool Hidden Gems newsletter. They are putting the Fool's money where its mouth is by building a real-money portfolio of small-cap stocks.


http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker/article.aspx?Feed=FOOL&Date=20090820&ID=9908221&Symbol=DISH

Peter Lynch's Stock Picking Strategy

Peter Lynch's Stock Picking Strategy:

Peter Lynch loved story stocks. He once told a reporter for PBS' Frontline about his impetus for buying the stock of Hanes. Turns out the company was test-marketing a new product called L'Eggs in Boston. His wife brought home a sample and after wearing them raved about how great they were.

L'Eggs stole market share from cheap drugstore competitors, and Lynch eventually made it one of Magellan's biggest holdings. Eventually L'Eggs was bought by Consolidated Foods, which is now called Sara Lee (nyse: SLE - news - people ). Magellan fund-holders benefited from a 30-fold appreciation in Hane's stock.

In order to find stocks that Peter Lynch might buy today, Forbes used stock screening software available from American Association Individual Investors Stock Investor Pro service. Below is a list of the criteria used. You will note that Lynch avoided any stocks growing earnings per share faster than 50% because he liked to avoid hot companies with unsustainable earnings growth rates. He reasoned that they would attract too much attention, which would bid up the price and attract competitors.

--Companies in the financial sector or in real estate operations industry were excluded.

--A price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) less than the industry mean.

--A P/E less than the five-year average.

--The ratio of the P/E to the sum of the five-year growth rate in earnings per share and the five-year dividend yield (dividend adjusted PEG ratio) is less than or equal to 0.5%.

--The five-year growth rate in eps from continuing operations is less than 50%.

--The percentage of common stock held by institutions is less than the median percentage of institution ownership.

--The total liabilities to total assets ratio for the last fiscal quarter (Q1) is less than the industry's median total liabilities to total assets ratio for the same time period.

http://www.forbes.com/2009/02/23/lynch-fidelity-magellan-personal-finance_peter_lynch.html

Peter Lynch: 10-Bagger Tales

Peter Lynch: 10-Bagger Tales

Matthew Schifrin, 02.23.09, 06:00 PM EST

How do you stay one up on Wall Street?
Buy smart and quit, while the going is good.


Who Is Peter Lynch?

If ever a legendary investor benefited from good timing it was Peter Lynch. Lynch was born in 1944 and first became interested in stocks while caddying for executives at a country club in Newton, Mass. His caddying landed him an internship at Fidelity Investments in 1966 and eventually a scholarship to Boston College.

After serving in the army for two years, Lynch eventually graduated with an MBA from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania in 1968. Upon graduation, Lynch returned to Fidelity as a research analyst. At age 25 he was earning $16,000 per year.

Lynch covered a variety of industries from textiles and chemicals to mining. Lynch eventually took over as director of research for the small investment mutual fund company and in 1977 took over portfolio management of Fidelity's Magellan mutual fund. The fund had only $18 million in assets when Lynch began running it.

Lynch ran Magellan from 1977 until 1990, and by the time he stepped down the fund had grown to $19 billion in assets with more than 1,000 stock holdings. Peter Lynch's compounded average annual investment return during the 13 years was 29.2%. A thousand dollars invested the day Lynch took over Magellan would have been worth $28,000 when he quit. Not to be understated is the fact that during Lynch's tenure the S&P 500's bull run was nearly continuous, rising from less than 100 to more than 320. The most severe market reversal Lynch faced was the crash of 1987 when stocks declined more than 30%. By the time Lynch retired a few years later, stocks had recovered most of their losses.

At the end of Lynch's career as a portfolio manager he teamed up with journalist John Rothchild to write his now famous bestseller One Up on Wall Street: How to Use What You Already Know to Make Money in the Market. This cemented Lynch as the everyman's hero because the book convinced millions of investors that you didn't need to be a quant or investing savant to find so-called "10 bagger" stocks (stocks that go up tenfold.) Just use common sense and invest in things you see everyday and understand.

During his tenure at Magellan, Lynch bought more than a hundred "10 bagger" stocks, including Fannie Mae (nyse: FNM - news - people ), Ford Motor (nyse: F - news - people ), Philip Morris International (nyse: PM - news - people ), Taco Bell, Dunkin' Donuts and General Electric (nyse: GE - news - people ).

Since Lynch retired in 1990, he has remained as a director of Fidelity Investments, written several more books and devoted his time to philanthropy.

http://www.forbes.com/2009/02/23/lynch-fidelity-magellan-personal-finance_peter_lynch.html