`Worst Case' Nuclear Disaster Hangs on Unlikely Events. There is a 10% probability still.

For Tokyo Electric Power Co.’s stricken nuclear reactors to release catastrophic amounts of radioactive material into the atmosphere, a rare chain of events needs to happen.

Averting a full-scale meltdown -- which scientists say isn’t likely -- depends on cooling the uranium-containing rods at Fukushima Dai-Ichi’s Reactor No. 2, said S.K. Malhotra, a scientist at India’s Department of Atomic Energy in Mumbai. A worst-case outcome may occur if overheating in the reactor culminates in the rupture of the steel lining protecting radioactive material.

“In the worst scenario, an explosion could occur inside the steel pressure vessel, fuel bundles melt down and the radioactivity is exposed,” Malhotra said in a phone interview. “I would say there is a 10 percent probability still.”

Read more here:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-15/-worst-case-nuclear-disaster-in-japan-hangs-on-string-of-unlikely-events.html

Dangers for Human Health From Radiation Poisoning: Questions and Answers
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-14/understanding-risk-of-radiation-poisoning-in-japan-questions-and-answers.html

`Panic Selling' Doesn't Pay. Who is a panic seller?

Definition of Panic Seller.  This is an investor who: 

1.  sells on a day when the benchmark falls 2.5% or more,

2.  stays away from stocks for at least 20 trading days, and

3.  returns only after the initial loss has been recouped.

(Source:  Bank of America Merrill Lynch) 

`Panic Selling' Doesn't Pay in U.S. Stock Market: Chart of the Day

By David Wilson - Mar 15, 2011 10:27 PM GMT+0800l

U.S. stock investors who avoid “panic selling” are likely to be rewarded for their patience, according to a study by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

This conclusion is based on a comparison of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index with an adjusted version, calculated by the firm. The latter assumes an investor sells on a day when the benchmark falls 2.5 percent or more, stays away from stocks for at least 20 trading days, and returns only after the initial loss has been recouped.

The CHART OF THE DAY compares the S&P 500 with index readings derived from Merrill’s data, which goes back to 1960. The adjusted benchmark would have finished last year at 459.46, about 63 percent lower than its actual close.

“As tempting as it can be to exit the market after a sell- off in an attempt to buy back at a lower price, timing re-entry is very difficult,” David Bianco, chief U.S. equity strategist at the firm, wrote yesterday in a report. “The market’s best days tend to come very close to the worst days.”

Staying invested is a more rewarding strategy as long as the earnings outlook is intact and stocks aren’t too expensive, Bianco wrote. He sees profits climbing 11 percent this year at S&P 500 companies and expects the index to finish the year at 1,400, a gain of 8 percent from yesterday’s close.

There have been 29 years since 1960 in which the S&P 500 had at least one daily decline of 2.5 percent or more, according to Merrill. The panic-selling strategy did better than the index in only six of them, most recently in 2008.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-15/-panic-selling-doesn-t-pay-in-u-s-stock-market-chart-of-the-day.html

This article below is to remind us what happened in 2008.

Investors Survive Selloff But Worry What's Next

Published: Monday, 15 Sep 2008 | 4:51 PM

Investors survived the first trading day of the Wall Street financial crisis, but many remained worried about what happens next.

A day after investment bank Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy and Merrill Lynch was forced to sell itself to Bank of America, the focus of many investors turned to giant insurer American International Group [AIG 36.78 -0.72 (-1.92%) ], which is struggling for survival.

The market is worried about a possible failure of AIG as early as Tuesday morning, said Matt Cheslock, a senior specialist at Cohen Specialists, and traders just don't want to stick their necks out amid that kind of uncertainty.

"If AIG fails tomorrow morning, it's the same thing written all over this market," Cheslock said. "I don't think anyone is going to want to take any positions overnight."

US stocks closed sharply lower as worries about AIG—on top of the crises at Lehman and Merrill—sparked a 500-point drop in the Dow. Markets in Asia and Europe also sold off, though Tokyo and several other Asian money centers were closed for holidays.

The dollar sank against the yen and the euro.

Oil prices, responding to the turmoil in financial markets more than Hurricane Ike, plunged to $92 a barrel.

The Federal Reserve refused to provide temporary financing for AIG, which has incurred $18 billion in losses over the past three quarters from soured mortgages. But the government has asked Goldman Sachs [GS 157.25 -1.18 (-0.74%) ] and JP Morgan Chase [JPM 44.61 -0.69 (-1.52%) ] to lead a group of banks to offer up to $75 billion in credit for the troubled insurer.

But AIG's survival remains uncertain, and investors are worried that there are other companies that may need to raise capital to cover mortgage-related losses.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said on Monday the U.S. financial system remained sound despite current stresses and he was prepared to take further actions if necessary to maintain stability.

"So far, the efforts of the US government have failed to bring any stability to the financial markets,'' said Kathy Lien, director of currency research at Global Forex Trading.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/26718389/Investors_Survive_Selloff_But_Worry_What_s_Next

Public Bank’s Teh celebrates birthday with promise of nice dividend present

Tuesday March 15, 2011

By JAGDEV SINGH SIDHU
jagdev@thestar,com.my

KUALA LUMPUR: Shareholders gave a lot of applause and sang “Happy Birthday” to Public Bank chairman Tan Sri Teh Hong Piow at the group's AGM yesterday where he set a medium-term target of achieving a net return on equity (ROE) of above 26% and an impaired loan ratio of below 1% as he believes the banking sector in Malaysia would be able to maintain its profitability despite uncertainty in the global markets.

Teh, in his address to shareholders at the bank's 45th AGM yesterday, said its joint venture with ING to provide family takaful business would add to the group's fee-based income once operations start in the first half of this year and the group would open four new branches in Vietnam and one in Laos this year.

Chief operating officer Leong Kwok Nyem said Public Bank could maintain a dividend payout ratio of 50% in the medium term.

“Barring unforeseen circumstances, the Public Bank group is expected to maintain its earnings momentum and continue to record satisfactory performance in 2011,” said Teh.

Tan Sri Teh Hong Piow waving to the shareholders at Public Bank’s AGM yesterday

In recapping the group's financial performance last year, Teh highlighted the strong growth in profit where the group broke the RM3bil net profit mark to register a bottomline of RM3.05bil in 2010. The bank's ROE at the end of last year was 27.1% and its impaired loans ratio was 1.1%.

Loans growth was strong and above industry average, as its been for years, and Teh said the bank's share of the domestic lending business had grown to 16.3% from 15.9% in 2009.

He said domestic customer deposits grew by 15% compared with the industry average of 6.7% and pointed to the growing market share of itsmutual fund business which now manages RM40.6bil of assets under management at the end of last year.

The AGM proved to be a warm affair for Teh and his board of directors who received thunderous applause from grateful shareholders.

Teh, whose birthday was on the same day as the AGM, was also greeted by a hall packed of shareholders singing “Happy Birthday” to the founder of the Public Bank group after it was revealed his birthday fell on the same day as the annual shareholders meet.

The questions posed by shareholders, who were generally appreciative of the performance of the banking group and the dividends declared over the years, contained the usual perusal of the company's accounts but a number of comments latched onto a suggestion by the Minority Shareholder Watchdog Group (MSWG) which wondered if more women could be appointed to the board.

The MSWG also raised the issue of long-serving tenure of independent directors on the board, which Tan Sri Thong Yaw Hong, the non-executive co-chairman of Public Bank replied that since Public Bank was regulated by Bank Negara, independent directors had to fulfil their responsibilities in accordance with the central bank's guidelines while displaying their independence at the same time.

One investor who claims to be from Singapore said her investment in Public Bank was the best she had made as the other global banks she had invested in offered little or no dividends.

Public Bank said shareholders received a total return of RM17,000 from the appreciation of the market value of the bank's stock and gross dividends declared over the past five year, a return of 160% or 24% per annum over the initial RM6,550 to buy 1,000 shares at the start of 2006.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2011/3/15/business/8266835&sec=business

Dividend growth challenge for EPF

Dividend growth challenge
By Rupinder SinghPublished: 2011/03/14

The Employees Provident Fund (EPF) will find it tough to consistently pay high dividends as uncertainty over the prospects of major economies could have a big bearing on open economies like Malaysia, economists said.

They expect the EPF dividend payment to ease to around 4 per cent to 5 per cent this year, from nearly 6 per cent in 2010.

Malaysia Rating Corp Bhd (MARC) chief economist Nor Zahidi Alias said as external trade and portfolio flows influence financial market performance, the Malaysian financial market could experience some knee-jerk reactions if risk aversion starts to escalate.

Nor Zahidi Alias said he would not be surprised if the present market correction continues in the next few months, especially when the overall sentiment is soured by the still struggling European economies and persistently high unemployment in the US.

"Such developments will no doubt have negative repercussions on Malaysia's external sector. Therefore, paying consistently high dividends will be challenging not only for the EPF, but also for other asset managers," he said.

Among the macro factors that will affect EPF's performance in 2011 are the country's gross domestic (GDP) growth, inflation, oil prices, interest rates and ringgit exchange rates.

"Based on the moderate gross domestic product (GDP) growth anticipated at between 5 per cent and 6 per cent this year, we expect EPF's dividend payout to also ease to the 5 per cent average level," RAM Holdings group chief economist Dr Yeah Kim Leng said.

Over the last 10 years, EPF's dividend payout ranged between 4.25 per cent and 5.8 per cent annually with an average of 5 per cent. The highest dividend rate ever paid was 8.5 per cent in 1983 and 1986.

Last year, EPF's top-of-the-range payout of 5.8 per cent corresponds to a strong rebound of the economy where the GDP expanded 7.2 per cent following a contraction of 1.7 per cent during the global financial turmoil in 2009.

EPF's major challenge, Yeah said, is to find investible instruments for the RM10 billion-RM12 billion net contributions that it will receive this year.

Besides that, he said, the pension fund would find it hard enhancing or rebalancing its portfolio towards safe and higher yielding asset classes to achieve the highest possible returns without compromising its mandate of capital preservation.

EPF is one of Asia's largest pension funds with a total asset of RM440.5 billion as at December 31 last year.

Allianz Life Insurance Malaysia Bhd chief investment officer Esther Ong estimates EPF dividend payout to be between 4 per cent and 5 per cent this term.

She said it may not be easy for EPF to sustain its performance this year unless some gains earned in better years previously are being used for distribution this year.

Ong believes that due to a more challenging macro environment, higher rates are expected for the bond portfolio.

"Meanwhile, we anticipate a more moderate return from equities given rising inflationary risks and the more moderate economic recovery path could result in lower earnings growth compared to last year," she noted.

In retrospect, equities were the largest contributor to the EPF's gross investment income in 2010, representing 45.45 per cent of its total gross investment income.

A total of RM10.94 billion was earned by EPF from equities last year, reflecting a significant 125.69 per cent increase from RM4.85 billion earned in 2009.


Read more: Dividend growth challenge http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/epf08/Article/index_html#ixzz1GZ2W7IPy

Foreign investors selling down shares: MIDF

Foreign investors selling down shares: MIDF
Published: 2011/03/14

Bursa Malaysia's total market capitalisation held by foreign investors, is estimated to be about 21.5 per cent currently, assuming a net foreign selldown of about RM4 billion since the beginning of the year.

The percentage of its total market capitalisation held by foreign investors was 21.9 per cent at the end of December, MIDF Research said in a note today.

It said foreign investors have been selling down local shares since January, after a bullish start to the year.

Local institutions continued to prop up the market while retailers were still relatively heavy net sellers, MIDF said, adding, gross purchase by local institutions amounted to RM4.5 billion last week, similar to that of the previous week.

"Risk aversion is creeping back into the market. There is too much uncertainty in the world currently for equity investors to be even remotely aggressive," it said. "Locally, the market's volatility appears to be increasing by the day," it added. -- Bernama


Read more: Foreign investors selling down shares: MIDF http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/20110314121658/Article/index_html#ixzz1GZ0vznMp

Berjaya Retail up on privatisation offer

Berjaya Retail up on privatisation offer
Written by Surin Murugiah of theedgemalaysia.com
Monday, 14 March 2011 09:17


KUALA LUMPUR: Berjaya Retail Bhd shares advanced in early trade on Monday, March 14 after Pemier Merchandise Sdn Bhd (PMSB), which controls 58.71% of the company issued notice to take it private at 65 sen per share.

At 9.10am, B-Retail was up 21 sen to 63.5 sen.

Tan Sri Vincent Tan Chee Yioun is the ultimate controlling shareholder of PMSB.

Tan is also the ultimate controlling shareholder of PMSB and owns 100% of PMSB via HQZ Credit Sdn Bhd. As at March 11, PMSB held 878.269 million B-Retail shares directly, which represented about 58.71% of the paid-up.

B-Retail said the shares and ICPS had not traded at or above the offer price of 65 sen since the listing of B-Retail on Bursa Malaysia Securities Bhd on Aug 16.

The five-day volume weighted average market price of B-Retail shares up to March 4, being the last trading day prior to the serving of the notice was 41.2 sen while for the ICPS, it was 33.5 sen.

At 41.2 sen, the offer for the shares at 65 sen each was a premium of 23.8 sen or 57.7%. The highest traded price since listing was 56.5 sen. As for the ICPS, the offer was a premium of 31.5 sen or 94%. Its highest traded price since listing was 51 sen.

Hong Leong Bank gets SC nod to issue up to USD300m bonds

Hong Leong Bank gets SC nod to issue up to USD300m bonds
Written by Joseph Chin of theedgemalaysia.com
Thursday, 10 March 2011 18:28


KUALA LUMPUR: HONG LEONG BANK BHD [] has received approval for its proposed issue of up to US$300 million senior unsecured bonds from the Securities Commission.

“The proceeds from the issuance of the senior bonds will be used for working capital and general banking purposes,” it said on Thursday, March 10.

Barclays Bank PLC, The Royal Bank of Scotland plc and Standard Chartered Bank are joint lead managers and bookrunners for the senior bonds.

CIMB Investment Bank Bhd and Hong Leong Investment Bank Bhd have been appointed co-managers.


-----


Moody's assigns A3 to Hong Leong Bank's proposed notes
Written by theedgemalaysia.com
Thursday, 10 March 2011 11:56


KUALA LUMPUR: Moody's Investors Service has assigned an A3 foreign currency rating to HONG LEONG BANK BHD []’s proposed issue of senior debt notes. The rating outlook is stable.

The ratings agency said on Thursday, March 10 the exact amount of the issuance has yet to be decided.

The notes will represent an unsecured, unsubordinated obligation of Hong Leong Bank. The issuance will be subject to a negative pledge.

Hong Leong Bank’s A3 foreign currency senior unsecured rating is driven by its C-bank financial strength rating (BFSR), which maps to a baseline credit assessment (BCA) of Baa1, as well as the imputed systemic support.

The bank's ratings are underpinned by its: (1) established consumer and middle-market banking franchise (which comprises a well-to-do Chinese community), (2) conservative management, (3) very high levels of capital and liquidity, and (4) efficient operations.

In addition, Moody's notes that the bank's asset quality, while improving, is still moderate when compared with global banks of similar ratings.

The rating also incorporates the inherent market risks.

As the sixth-largest Malaysian bank in terms of assets, Moody's believed that Hong Leong Bank enjoyed a very high probability of systemic support, leading to two notches of uplift for its A2 long-term global local currency (GLC) deposit rating from its Baa1 BCA.

The bank’s long-term senior unsecured foreign currency debt rating is similar to Malaysia's A3 foreign currency bond ceiling.

Public Bank says 50% dividend payout policy remains

Public Bank says 50% dividend payout policy remains

Written by Chua Sue-Ann of theedgemalaysia.com
Monday, 14 March 2011 15:18


KUALA LUMPUR: PUBLIC BANK BHD [] has assured shareholders that it was in the position to maintain its 50% dividend payout policy in the medium term despite the impending Basel III requirements.

Public Bank chief operating officer Leong Kwok Nyem on Monday, March 14 told shareholders that Public Bank aimed to balance between the need to meet regulatory capital requirements and the needs to optimise returns to shareholders.

"The group's strong earnings generation capabilities will help the group to have the capital to support its strong organic growth strategy and to maintain its dividend payout ratio," Leong said, in response to questions from shareholders at Public Bank's annual general meeting today.

Public Bank recently announced its fourth quarter ended Dec 31, 2010 (4QFY10) results which saw net profit grow 24.85% to RM846.19 million from RM678.23 million a year ago, driven by higher interest income, fee-based earnings and smaller provision for bad loans.

This was on the back of a 18.8% revenue increase to RM2.97 billion from RM2.5 billion a year ago.

For the 12 months, Public Bank's net profit rose 21% to RM3.05 billion from RM2.52 billion a year ago while revenue rose 13.6% to RM11.04 billion from RM9.72 billion.

For its 4QFY10, Public Bank declared a cash dividend of 33 sen per share, comprising a franked dividend of 25 sen less income tax and a single-tier dividend of eight sen per share.

Public Bank's total gross dividend payout for FY10 was 58 sen per share.

To a shareholder's question about a rights issue, Leong said Public Bank had the capital to support its strong organic growth strategies without having to return to shareholders in a rights issue exercise.

Leong added that Public Bank's capital ratio were healthy, at 10% for its Tier 1 Capital ratio, 13.7% risk weighted capital ratio and 7.2% core equity capital.

Asked about overseas expansion plans, Public Bank co-chairman Tan Sri Thong Yaw Hong assured shareholders that the bank's board and management was always alert about opportunities and mindful of its challenges.

One shareholder had voiced concern that Public Bank had been less aggressive than its competitors in overseas expansions.

Meanwhile, in a statement Public Bank said it plans to add six branches to its existing 21 branches in Cambodia, four new branches in Vietnam and one new branch in Laos this year.

Overseas, Public Bank currently has 81 branches in Hong Kong, three in Shenzen, China, seven in Vietnam, three in Laos and one in Sri Lanka.

Japan impact rattles investors

Adele Ferguson LONDON

March 14, 2011

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THE biggest earthquake in Japan's history left the global equities and insurance markets reeling as experts spent the weekend grappling with the financial impact on the world's third-biggest economy and the knock-on effects to the global recovery.

Global markets wobbled, oil prices closed lower, the futures market for grain commodities dived and shares in global insurance and reinsurance stocks fell as analysts began to tally up the losses caused by the earthquake, the tsunami and the implications of a nuclear meltdown in the wake of cooling system damage.

Initial estimates of the damage to the Japanese economy are about $100 billion, with the global insurance industry believed to be exposed to less than $15 billion.

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The Japanese government will bear most of the costs as it reinsures most homeowner earthquake insurance policies in a giant pool fund.

Share prices in Japan are expected to fall further when trading resumes today, while in Australia the futures market suggests a gain on opening. But given news over the weekend about the state of nuclear fallout, the loss of life and the disruption to economic activity, investors will be grappling with the impact for some time.

In the short term, economists believe the impact on the Japanese economy will be negative, in part due to physical damage to infrastructure and capital stock and because of the psychological trauma suffered by the Japanese, which is likely to trigger risk aversion, a drop in consumer confidence and an increased urge to save.

This could prove a negative for Australia as Japan is its second biggest export market, accounting for more than $37 billion of exports last year.

Investors expect Japan will be forced to increase its already bloated borrowing in a weak economic environment to finance the massive rebuilding project.

The damage has also triggered a debate about whether the earthquake will be a market-changing event for the insurance sector. Since the start of the year natural disasters, including floods and a cyclone in Australia and an earthquake in New Zealand, have wreaked havoc on the insurance and reinsurance industries, leaving the sector exposed to more than $50 billion in damages.

With so many catastrophes, the expectation is that prices will be pushed higher in the July 1 reinsurance renewals. If prices rise, general insurers will be forced to pass them on in higher premiums.

The insurance industry has been suffering from a so-called soft market. That happens when their prices come under pressure as insurers and reinsurers have lots of spare capital and compete more for business.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/japan-impact-rattles-investors-20110313-1bsx4.htm
l

Dutch Lady to increase market share

Dutch Lady to increase market share
Published: 2011/03/11


Dutch Lady Industries Bhd, a dairy products manufacturer, aims to significantly strengthen its market share in the growing milk segment with the launch of the improved formulation of the Dutch Lady Growing Up Milk.

With five times more docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) than the previous one, it would ease nutritional challenges faced by parents in providing healthy diets for their children, said Marketing Director Rahul Colaco.

"When we developed the improved formulation, we took into account to make DHA more readily and easily available so that it can contribute to children's healthy diet," he told reporters after launching the new formula today.

He said the new formula was also expected to markedly increase the company's revenue as the milk segment was one of the biggest revenue contributors.

Currently, milk products contributed 50 per cent to the turnover, he added.

Dutch Lady is the market share leader in the growing up milk segment with the Dutch Lady brand holding 40 per cent of the market share.

To date, the company has 150 products across different brands and segments.
-- BERNAMA


Read more: Dutch Lady to increase market share http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/20110311153000/Article/index_html#ixzz1GHoHPyeE

Petronas Dagangan

Capital gain:

1000 shares of Petdag @ $8 per share (Cost $8,000) in 2005 has grown into 

2000 shares of Petdag @ $14 per share (Market value $28,000) in March 2011.

Don't forget to add the GROWING dividends!

3 Aug 2010	0.15 Dividend
7 Dec 2009	0.15 Dividend
5 Aug 2009	0.33 Dividend
10 Dec 2008	0.12 Dividend
1 Aug 2008	0.33 Dividend
14 Dec 2007	0.12 Dividend
12 Dec 2005	0.05 Dividend
17 Aug 2005	0.10 Dividend
30 Nov 2004	0.10 Dividend
5 Aug 2004	0.20 Dividend
10 Dec 2003	0.20 Dividend
23 Jul 2003	0.10 Dividend
22 Jul 2003	0.10 Dividend
* Close price adjusted for dividends and splits.

Nestle Malaysia budgets up to RM120m for capex

Nestle Malaysia budgets up to RM120m for capex


Written by Kamarul Azhar
Tuesday, 08 March 2011 11:52


PETALING JAYA: Nestle Malaysia Bhd has budgeted RM100 million to RM120 million to expand its capacity this year.

“Majority of the sum is to be invested in increasing the capacity and innovation, while the smaller part will be on maintaining and upgrading the factory,” its managing director Peter Vogt told The Edge Financial Daily.

He said the increase in capacity at the company’s factory allows the group to expand its export market, namely Indonesia and the Philippines, as well as the domestic market.

The budget for capacity expansion is in line with the group’s priority on having organic growth, instead of growing by mergers and acquisitions.

Acknowledging that the food and beverages industry has gone through some consolidation lately, however, he said there were not that many opportunities for acquisition.

However, he added that Nestle is always open for such acquisitions, which suit well into the overall strategy of the group.

Vogt: Increase in capacity at the company’s factory allows the group to expand its export market, namely Indonesia and the Philippines, as well as the domestic market.


“Every year we have allocated some money for capital expenditure. Some of it would be for upgrading the factory or increasing the capacity, or maybe for a totally new product,” said Vogt.

He added that the investment planned for this year would be for a wide range of activities, such as factory upgrading and maintenance, and increasing the capacity by adding more operation lines in various areas.

In October last year, the company purchased a piece of land adjacent to the company’s plant in Shah Alam from British American Tobacco (M) Bhd (BAT) for RM36 million cash. The land, according to Vogt is slated for future expansion of the capacity of the plant.

“The land is adjacent to our facility so now we have more space to expand our capacity,” he noted.


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, March 8, 2011.