`Worst Case' Nuclear Disaster Hangs on Unlikely Events. There is a 10% probability still.

For Tokyo Electric Power Co.’s stricken nuclear reactors to release catastrophic amounts of radioactive material into the atmosphere, a rare chain of events needs to happen.

Averting a full-scale meltdown -- which scientists say isn’t likely -- depends on cooling the uranium-containing rods at Fukushima Dai-Ichi’s Reactor No. 2, said S.K. Malhotra, a scientist at India’s Department of Atomic Energy in Mumbai. A worst-case outcome may occur if overheating in the reactor culminates in the rupture of the steel lining protecting radioactive material.

“In the worst scenario, an explosion could occur inside the steel pressure vessel, fuel bundles melt down and the radioactivity is exposed,” Malhotra said in a phone interview. “I would say there is a 10 percent probability still.”

Read more here:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-15/-worst-case-nuclear-disaster-in-japan-hangs-on-string-of-unlikely-events.html

Dangers for Human Health From Radiation Poisoning: Questions and Answers
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-14/understanding-risk-of-radiation-poisoning-in-japan-questions-and-answers.html