Saturday, 10 September 2011

What is the correct company value? Value versus Price


S@R | 15/02/2009

Nobel Prize winner in Economics, Milton Friedman, has said; “the only concept/theory which has gained universal acceptance by economists is that the value of an asset is determined by the expected benefits it will generate”.
Value is not the same as price. Price is what the market is willing to pay. Even if the value is high, most want to pay as little as possible. One basic relationship will be the investor’s demand for return on capital – investor’s expected return rate. There will always be alternative investments, and in a free market, investor will compare the investment alternatives attractiveness against his demand for return on invested capital. If the expected return on invested capital exceeds the investments future capital proceeds, the investment is considered less attractive.
value-vs-price-table
One critical issue is therefore to estimate and fix the correct company value that reflects the real values in the company. In its simplest form this can be achieved through:
Budget a simple cash flow for the forecast period with fixed interest cost throughout the period, and ad the value to the booked balance.
This evaluation will be an indicator, but implies a series of simplifications that can distort the reality considerably. For instance, real balance value differs generally from book value. Proceeds/dividends are paid out according to legislation; also the level of debt will normally vary throughout the prognosis period. These are some factors that suggest that the mentioned premises opens for the possibility of substantial deviation compared to an integral and detailed evaluation of the company’s real values.
A more correct value can be provided through:
  • Correcting the opening balance, forecast and budget operations, estimate complete result and balance sheets for the whole forecast period. Incorporate market weighted average cost of capital when discounting.
The last method is considerably more demanding, but will give an evaluation result that can be tested and that also can take into consideration qualitative values that implicitly are part of the forecast.
The result is then used as input in a risk analysis such that the probability distribution for the value of the chosen evaluation method will appear. With this method a more correct picture will appear of what the expected value is given the set of assumption and input.
The better the value is explained, the more likely it is that the price will be “right”.
The chart below illustrates the method.
value-vs-price_chart1


http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/02/15/what-is-the-correct-company-value/

Return on Equity




Return on Equity (RoE) = Net Income (NI) / Equity
or
Return on Equity = Return on Assets (RoA) x Financial Leverage (FLA)
and
RoA = NI / Assets
and FLA = Assets / Equity

At each stage, the formula can be further decomposed. For instance, Return on Assets can be decomposed to:

RoA = Net profit margin (NPM) x Total Asset Turnover

This formula captures the essence of operational efficiency in terms most lay people can understand. How [efficiently] are we selling (Total Asset Turnover - TAT) [with respect to the assets we use to produce our product - directly related to revenue and number of products sold at a constant price]?

The DuPont model goes on to further decompose NPM as gross product margin, tax burden and effect of 'non-operating items' etc, but even at this stage, this formula gives a good basis for common size comparison with other companies in the industry.

Let's look at each component and see if we can describe them in layman's terms:
  • Return on Equity - How much income are we making relative to the equity we put in?
  • Financial leverage - How much debt have we applied relative to our equity?
  • Return on Assets - How much income are we making relative to all the capital we put it (including debt)?
  • Total Asset Turnover - How [efficiently are we using our assets]?
  • Net Profit Margin - For each unit of good or service we sell, after the costs, how much do we keep?
  • Gross Profit Margin - Before we do accounting and pay tax, how much of each good or service do we keep for each sale?
  • Tax burden - After accounting practices, what is the effect of our current tax rate?
  • Non-operating items - Can we use depreciation and amortization to affect our tax burden?
It can quickly tell you the status of the leverage, operational efficiency and sales to identify if there are problems from a high level to determine if certain areas warrant a deeper investigation. No calculus required.



Where are you leading to in your life?


Sometimes, when we look back on the things we had done previously, we will ask ourselves, whether it is worth to do so. There are too many things need to be done in our lives and how should we do?

At the age of 29 years old, I realize that I have spent majority of my time in studying and working. While my hobby is traveling and investing, I recognized that I have long time never touch on piano, table tennis, religion studies, as well as Chinese chess. Those were the activities I often did when I was in my school lives. Now, I have reached another step, where I am going to be a husband. What are the steps I should do? Where am I leading to?

My gf gave me a gift - a cup with the title 'You Never Too Old to Dream'. Until recently, I just realized that the person who can give you most encouragement is nobody but yourself. You must think out of box to achieve what you want in your life.

As my goal, I want to achieve financial freedom, setup a charity trusts and travel around the world. Of course, I already set a dateline to myself. I must be a millionaire before 35 years old.
After that, I will use that 1M to generate more 1M. But How?

Some of my ideas here:

Marry to a rich girl - Looks impossible, as I already engaged. Haha. :)

Win a lottery - Too bad, my luck is always not that good. So I give up on this. :)

Work hard and climb in the corporate ladder - Given my character, I hate to fight with other colleague but I love working with them peacefully. So, I don't think I can be a CEO within 5 working years. :)

Be own boss - setup a new company. Given my current experience and capital, it is a bit hard to do it right now. But I believe I can do it soon after my capital reaches 1M. I always believe that I can be a rich man. There is no doubt in it.

Through Investing - I have about 10 years experience in investing in shares in year 1998. Year 1998 and 2008 was a bad year to me. Since then, I achieve reasonable returns through investing via High Growth Company. ROE is the key indicator that I use for investment. However, due to the small capital and reinvested capital (I am not a high paid guy, so my initial invested capital was very small. Thankfully, my current invested capital reached 6 figures and I definitely believe that I can be millionaire in my 30s.

Of course, I definitely believe that you have your own way to go. Share with us your ideas on where are you leading to in your life in below comments.

Good luck!

http://www.jackphanginvestment.com/2011/05/where-are-you-leading-to-in-your-life.html

ROE - Key Performance Indicator for Company Management


Introduction of ROE


Return on Equity (ROE) is a term important in shares/equity investment. The simple formula for ROE is Net Profit / Shareholdings. In short, it is measured by how strong is the top management to produce profit based on current shareholdings. In DuPont formula, it is calculated as Net Profit Margin * Asset Turnover * Equity Multiplier. I will explain to you the components one by one:


Simple DuPont Formula Explanation  
  1. Net Profit Margin (Net Profit / Revenue) - This is one of the very key indicators to measure company performance. A good company with 'Monopoly' status always have a better profit margin as compared to the peer companies. It can be achieved by Economy of Scales or through operation efficiencies. When you notice that the company's profit margin is increasing, perhaps you can check whether it is due to a new product launched or operation efficiencies or due to cost control improvement etc. 
  2. Asset Turnover (Revenue / Asset) - It is an indicator to show whether the company is capable to have a better turnover by selling more products with limited asset available. A low non-current asset based company can perform better than a high non-current asset based company due to its bargaining power against customer.
  3. Equity Multiplier (Asset / Equity) - Sometimes a good ROE can be due to high equity multiplier. It means that the company has bigger borrowing from bank/payable/bond holders to achieve higher asset. In finance industry, the leverage can be as high as 10 times and above. You must compare the equity multiplier with its peer companies. Normally if company can achieve optimal capital structure, the WACC can be the lowest. Thus, investor can achieve higher returns.
Things to take note



It does not necessary mean that you can achieve a good returns by investing in high ROE company. However, if you can find out a company is having higher and consistent ROE as compared to
its peer company in same sector, it means that this company's management is better to produce better returns as compared to rest. You must also take into considerations the other figures such as Price per Earning ratio, Dividend yield etc.
Conclusion


By comparing ROE with peer companies, you also must take note that whether the company manipulate its annual report.  It is also good that you can do a relative comparison on P/E ratio and Dividend Yield while making investment decisions.  With a good and consistent ROE, the longer you hold the investment the better the profit you can forsee in the long run.


http://www.jackphanginvestment.com/2011/04/roe-key-performance-indicator-for.html

Your emotion controls how many returns you can get

Your emotion controls how many returns you can get

Over the period of investing, common mistakes which I think the investor made can be categorized into few:

1. Data Analysis

2. Emotion

Data analysis can be also sub-categorized to Fundamental / Technical perspective or even Macroeconomic perspective. You can learn from many ways to improve your analytic skills before you made a very good investment. However, emotion plays a bigger part to determine how many returns you can get.

There are various theories which teach investors to buy at a lower point and sell at the higher point. However, due to the greed and fear factor, investors require a very strong self discipline to follow the framework they have set and not to 'Buy High' and 'Sell Low' due to market crash.

There are few players which I conclude as Institutional Investors, Retail Investors & Speculators in this market. When market crash, we will see a huge outflow from the market due to the panic sell. Even fund managers or institutional investors are also forced to liquidate their portions in the markets due to redemption made by the retail investors and caused that their performance will follow the benchmark. Speculators will start "Short"ing the market and tried to earn a huge profits from there and make the situations become worse.


How to control your emotions depends on how your investment strategy/asset allocation works. Most people will reserve an emergency funds for the panic sells purchase. There are also short term investors who just trade during the boom markets and tries to earn a quick profit. There are also long term investors who are fully invested in the market regardless how the market moves upwards or heading south. If you have an asset allocation and portfolio rebalancing plan, you must exercise your plan regardless how your emotion tried to control you to do the other way round.

People who are afraid to see unrealized losses are the one who are also afraid to see unrealized gain. Their mentality is still "Investing = Gambling". If you have this mindset, you will just run away when you earn a bit profit but will quickly cut lose if you see your purchase price is lower than market price.

So, try to control your emotion and learn from the mistake you made earlier. Find a proper asset allocation plan as well as develop your stocks picking skills so that you can avoid to be controlled by your emotion.

Good Luck!

http://www.jackphanginvestment.com/2011/03/your-emotion-controls-how-many-returns.html

Long Term Investment Applies to 'Good' 'Business' 'Company'

Over a period of investment, I met with different types of friends. We are all searching for a Low Risk yet High Return investment which is in contrast with the classic 'Modern Portfolio Theory' written by Harry Markowitz.

Some are learning Technical Analysis. A number of theories have been developed in term of the searching of a good stock which has a upward movement or downward movement which they can predict and make use of. However, the cons of this analysis is you are hard to master it and there is still a risk involved which encourage you to 'Cut Lost' if the wind turns another way round.

Some are learning Fundamental Analysis. CFA is a good post graduation course allowing you to learn how to perform fundamental analysis from Global, Sector, and Industry to specific company by annual report. However, there is too many manipulation from the company which hinders you from making a great profit. Instead, some of the companies are trying to cheat the investors by creating a better outlook. So, which one is the best strategy to beat the overall market while enjoying lower risk?

In my previous post Margin of Safety, First thing in Investment, I always emphasize the margin of safety. One of the way we can find out the margin of safety is through searching a good company operates in a good industry and invest it in a good time.

While we try not to time the investment as we can reduce the timing risk by 'Dollar Cost Averaging', I always search for a well managed company in a good industry. ROE (a.k.a Returns On Equity) is the most important key performance indicator which I judge a good company compared against its peers. However, we also must look at its optimal corporate finance structure so that we can know the optimal debt levels it can operates at.

If you want to stay investing in long term, try to find out a good industry too. There is different industry performance in different countries. While Singapore is performing excellently in finance industry, Malaysia is good at the Agriculture & plantation and Islamic Finance. Of course, there are some industries which is less reflect during recession period such consumer industry as well as low cost leadership companies.

If you a serious investor, try to do your homework before invest in any company. Try to make the investment like invest in a business which you think it is the best company you can ever invest in. Of course, some diversification will allow you to sleep well without having worry too much in particular stock.

Long term investment does not necessarily means you have to hold the company for more than 10 years. However, this concept will keep you in mind that while investing a longer period of time in a good business company, you will enjoy a better returns as compared to other lower risk investment such as Fix Deposit, as the more homework and steadiness you performs, the better result you will get. In long run.

http://www.jackphanginvestment.com/2011/05/long-term-investment-applies-to-good.html

Why should I need to sell if my investment horizon is 50 years and above?

My friend asked me on the current market view. My answer to him is 'Why should I sell if my investment horizon is 50 years and above?'

Consider the following scenarios:

You are the business owner of a small business that co-own with Mr. Market. Everyday, Mr. Market will ask you to sell or buy according to his mood. Sometime, he is very optimistic of the future, and he is willing to buy at a higher price for your stake. Sometime, he is very pessimistic of the future, and he is willing to sell you at lower price for his stake.

We should always make use of Mr. Market's mood to gain the arbitrage profit from there.


http://www.jackphanginvestment.com/2011/07/why-should-i-need-to-sell-if-my.html

Treat your investment as your own business

For those who are in business, they typically know that it is very hard to compete with others with exceptional result by doing a normal job. Their business profits will eventually gone down or up depending on the environment.

Hence, please treat your investment as your own business. Before you make any decision of investing, please ask yourself few questions:

1) Is this a good business? 

2) How reliable of the top management? 

3) Can I hold this investment for long term?

4) Can I buy more if the price goes down further?


If the answers for above questions are positive, what you can do is just wait for the opportunites to invest in to it.
And, please remember to hold it for long term. It is not easy to find a good monopoly business in this world. If you are doing a business, you will understand it.




http://www.jackphanginvestment.com/2011/04/treat-your-investment-as-your-own.html

Personal Portfolio Management

RSI Indicator







Seven Steps to Financial Freedom

Financial Freedom Pyramid


Friday, 9 September 2011

Market PE



From a valuation standpoint, the Rule of 20 continues to point to 1500 on current trailing earnings,  for a 15-20% upside potential to fair value. This remains a good target for this year. However, the risk of a technical correction towards the 200 day m.a. is not insignificant, skewing the risk/reward ratio and raising a yellow flag for the shorter term.

Thursday, 8 September 2011

What is a Bond?


A bond is essentially a loan an investor makes to the bonds’ issuer. That issuer can be the federal government (as in the case of Treasury bonds) or a local government (municipal bonds), government-sponsored enterprises (like Fannie Mae), companies (corporate bonds) or even foreign governments or international corporations.
The investor, or bond buyer, generally receives regular interest payments on the loan until the bond matures or is “called,” at which point the issuer repays you the principal. Bond funds pool money from many investors to buy individual bonds according to the fund’s investment objective.
Most bonds pay regular interest until the bond matures.



Callable bonds allow the issuer to repay the bond before maturity.



Zero-coupon bonds offer a deep discount and pay all the accumulated interest at maturity.



Who issues bonds?

Governments, government sponsored enterprises and corporations issue bonds to raise money for their endeavors. The financial health of the issuer determines how highly (or not) the bonds are rated; higher rated bonds are considered to be safer and therefore pay less interest, whereas lower-rated bonds pay higher interest rates to compensate investors for taking on more perceived risk. An issuer’s credit rating can change in either direction over time. In addition to the ratings and interest payments, the institution issuing the bonds can also determine whether or not the income is taxable. A roundup of the types of bonds and information on their issuers follows:
Treasury bonds
The U.S. Treasury issues bonds to pay for government activities and service the national debt. Treasuries are considered to be extremely low-risk if held to maturity, since they are backed by “the full faith and credit” of the U.S. government. Because of their safety, they tend to offer lower yields than other bonds. Income from Treasury bonds is exempt from state and local taxes.
Agency bonds
Government-Sponsored Enterprises issue bonds to support their mandates, which typically involve ensuring certain segments of the population—like farmers, students and homeowners—are able to borrow at affordable rates. Examples include Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Tennessee Valley Authority. Yields are higher than government bonds, representing their higher level of risk, though are still considered to be on the lower end of the risk spectrum. Some income from agency bonds, like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are taxable. Others are exempt from state and local taxes.
Municipal bonds
States, cities, counties and towns issue bonds to pay for public projects (roads, sewers) and finance other activities. The majority of munis are exempt from federal income taxes and, in most cases, also exempt from state and local taxes if the investor is a resident in the state of issuance. As a result, the yields tend to be lower, but still may provide more after-tax income for investors in higher tax brackets.
Corporate bonds
Corporations issue bonds to expand, modernize, cover expenses and finance other activities. The yield and risk are generally higher than government and municipal bonds. Rating agencies help you assess the credit risk by rating the bonds according to the issuing company’s perceived creditworthiness. Income from corporate bonds is fully taxable.
Mortgage-backed securities
Banks and other lending institutions pool mortgages and “securitize” them so investors can buy bonds that are backed by income from people repaying their mortgages. This raises money so the lenders can offer more mortgages. Examples of MBS issuers include Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac. Mortgage-backed bonds have a yield that typically exceeds high-grade corporate bonds. The major risk of these bonds is if borrowers repay their mortgages in a "refinancing boom," it could have an impact on the investment's average life and potentially its yield. These bonds can also prove risky if many people default on their mortgages. Mortgage-backed bonds are fully taxable.
High yield bonds
Some issuers simply aren’t as credit-worthy as others. These can include local and foreign governments, but generally high yield bonds refer to corporate bonds issued by companies that are considered to be at greater risk of not paying interest and/or returning principal at maturity. As a result, the issuer will pay a higher rate to entice investors to take on the added risk. Ratings agencies such as Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch evaluate the financial health of a bond issuer and assign a rating that indicates their opinion of whether the bond is investment grade or not. Bonds rated below investment grade are considered speculative and higher risk.

How a typical bond works

Bonds have three major components:
The first is the face value, also called par value. This is the value the bond holder will receive at maturity unless the issuer defaults. Investors pay par when they buy the bond at its original face value. If bonds are retired by the issuer before maturity, bond holders may receive the par value or a slight premium. The price investors pay when buying on the secondary market (in other words, not directly from the bond’s issuer) may be more or less than the face value. See Bond Prices, Rates, and Yields.
Bonds also have a coupon rate. This is the annual rate of interest payable on the bond. (The term coupon hearkens to the time bond certificates were issued on paper and had actual coupons that investors would detach and bring to the bank to collect the interest.) The higher the coupon rate, the higher the interest payments the owner receives. With fixed-rate bonds, the coupon rate is set at the time the bond is issued and does not change. Most bonds make interest payments semiannually, although some bonds offer monthly and quarterly payments.
Third, bonds have a stated maturity date. Generally, this is the date on which the money you've loaned the issuer is repaid to you (assuming the bond doesn't have any call or redemption features).

Callable bonds

Callable bonds are bonds that the issuer can repay early, sometimes after a period of several years, at a predetermined price. The attraction of callable bonds is that they typically offer higher rates than non-callable bonds.
However, you should understand the call risk. If interest rates drop low enough, the bond's issuer can save money by repaying its callable bonds and issuing new bonds at lower coupon rates. If this happens, the bond holder's interest payments cease and they receive their principal early. If the bond holder then reinvests the principal in bonds with similar characteristics (such as credit rating), he or she will likely have to accept a lower coupon rate, one that is more consistent with prevailing interest rates. This will lower monthly interest payments.
Example: A callable bond
An investor purchases a $30,000 10-year callable bond paying 6.5% interest, which is a higher interest rate than similar non-callable bonds. The bond is callable after five years at a price of 103—that is, 103% of the face value, or $30,900. If interest rates drop enough, the investor may wind up with their principal returned and, when seeking to reinvest the principal, be looking at yields that have fallen since the time of their original investment.

Zero coupon bonds

Zero coupon bonds, also known as “Strips”, are bonds that do not make periodic interest payments (in other words, there’s no coupon). Instead, you buy the bond at a discounted price and receive one payment at maturity. The payment is equal to the principal you invested plus the accumulated interest earned (compounded annually to maturity).
Perhaps the best-known example of a zero-coupon bond is a U.S. savings bond, which is a "non marketable" Treasury security that can be bought directly from the Treasury or most banks. (Fidelity sells other “marketable” zero-coupon Treasury securities that can be bought and sold on the secondary market.) There’s a reason these bonds are a favorite gift of many parents and grandparents: Zero coupon bonds are attractive when you want to save for a defined objective and date, such as when a child starts college. You receive your principal and interest in one lump sum at maturity.
Let’s say you’re saving for your child’s college education, which will begin in 10 years. You could buy a 10-year zero coupon bond that costs you $16,000, though its face value is $20,000. In 10 years, at maturity, you receive face value of $20K.
Zero coupon bonds have a few drawbacks. First, in most cases, you’ll have to pay taxes annually on the interest, even though you do not actually receive the interest until maturity. This can be offset if you buy the bonds in a tax-deferred retirement account, or in a custodial account for a child in situations where the child pays little or no tax.
Zero coupon bonds can also be particularly volatile in the open market, and particularly susceptible to interest rate risk. (For more on this and other risks, see Risks of Fixed Income Investing.) This doesn't matter if you keep the bond to maturity. But if you need to sell it early, you could incur a substantial loss.
In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. 

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer.

Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.


Investment Objectives




AFTER-TAX RETURNS AND LIFETIME INVESTMENT GOALS