Friday, 7 October 2011

Bank of England pumps up economy

Bank of England pumps up economy


The Bank of England has taken fresh emergency stimulus measures, planning to inject STG75 billion ($A120 billion) into a British economy caught up in possibly "the most serious financial crisis" ever.

After a two-day policy meeting, the BoE approved increasing its quantitative easing (QE) by STG75 billion to STG275 billion over a four-month period, sooner than had been expected by many analysts.

The Bank of England's nine-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) also decided to keep the main interest rate at a record-low 0.50 per cent, it said.

"This is the most serious financial crisis we've seen at least since the 1930s, if not ever," BoE governor Mervyn King told Sky News television following the policy announcements on Thursday.

"We're having to deal with very unusual circumstances and to act calmly and do the right thing. The right thing at present is to create some more money to inject into the economy."

Under QE, the bank creates new cash which is used to purchase assets such as government and corporate bonds in a bid to encourage lending and in turn boost economic activity.

The BoE injected STG200 billion into the economy between March 2009 and January 2010 but the economy has struggled and over the past nine months has virtually come to a halt.

The pound on Thursday hit a 14-month low at $US1.5272 as investors envisaged no hike to British interest rates for a very long time. The London stock market closed up 3.71 per cent, helped by EU moves to sort out the eurozone debt crisis, traders said.

Finance Minister George Osborne authorised the resumption of the emergency policy in an official letter to Bank of England governor Mervyn King.

The policy announcements came one day after official data showed the British economy had flatlined over the past nine months and that the 2008-09 recession was worse than previously thought, with a peak-to-trough contraction of 7.1 per cent, rather than the previous estimate of 6.4 per cent.

The European Central Bank meanwhile held its key interest rate at 1.5 per cent, shrugging off speculation it could cut borrowing costs to help combat the region's sovereign debt crisis.

The BoE warned that Britain's recovery was endangered by a flat world economy and the eurozone crisis that has so far resulted in EU-IMF bailouts for Greece, Ireland and Portugal.

"Vulnerabilities associated with the indebtedness of some euro-area sovereigns and banks have resulted in severe strains in bank funding markets and financial markets more generally. These tensions in the world economy threaten the UK recovery," the central bank said.

The BoE's key interest rate has stood at 0.50 per cent since March 2009, when it decided to begin pumping new cash into the economy under QE.

Experts claim that while QE can help to kick-start an economy, it also threatens to fuel inflation, which in the long run can actually hinder growth.

With British annual inflation currently at 4.5 per cent - far above the BoE's two per cent target - the bank faces a tricky balancing act.

The economy grew by just 0.1 per cent in the three months to June.

Britain hauled itself out of a deep recession in the third quarter of 2009, but its recovery has also been severely constrained by the impact of collapsing consumer confidence and painful state austerity cuts.

Roland Jackson

Thursday, 6 October 2011

With inflation approaching 5pc in UK, do we really want more QE?


The Bank has announced 75 billion more QE (Photo: PA)
On the basis that inflation is better than depression, I suppose it is just about possible to go along with the Monetary Policy Committee's decision to increase "quantitative easing" by a further £75bn.
But I worry about it. I worry both that it will be ineffective in terms of stimulating investment and growth, I worry that it is going to be very difficult for the Bank of England to unwind these now vast holdings of government debt, I worry that we are now perilously close to outright monetisation of the deficit (a policy approach which all economic history shows ends in abject disaster), and I worry that ultimately, it's bound to be inflationary.
In a speech two or three weeks back, Adam Posen, until recently an outrider on the MPC in demanding more QE, said that such fears were "unfounded" and "unwarranted", but answer me this. How's the further plunge in the value of the pound that greeted this announcement not inflationary? Even the Bank of England's own analysis of the effect of QE to date, which is based on quite questionable methodology, estimates that it has added 0.75 to 1.5 percentage points to CPI inflation for a maximum gain in real GDP of 2pc. That doesn't seem to me to be a particularly good trade off.
And you cannot help but think that the long term impact of all this money printing is almost bound to be highly inflationary. Already, the Bank of England has bought up around 20pc of the national debt, equal to some 14pc of GDP. This will expand it to close to 30pc.
Since a fair old chunk of this debt is in the form of inflation protected gilts, which have not been part of the asset purchase programme, the proportion of the conventional gilts market that will be sitting on the Bank of England's balance sheet by the end of the latest batch of purchases is going to be rather more than a half. When something looks mad, it generally is. Yields on ten year gilts are already at historic lows at less than 3pc. Is it really sensible to be driving them even lower?
In his speech, Mr Posen said "we will know that monetary policy has done enough for long enough when long term interest rates rise due to demand for capital from our private sector taking on risk and making investments". But why would they rise when there's the open cheque book of the Bank of England willing to buy up almost anything that comes onto the market? And if they do rise, it's much more likely to be because investors expect inflation than than a sudden return to rampant business investment.
Despite these concerns, I guess it's just about possible to support what the Bank of England is doing given the extreme downside risks to the economy that have swept in from the Continent over the last month or so. With all this talk of coordinated action, we have to assume that other central banks are poised to follow suit, though I'll believe it when I see it as far as the European Central Bank is concerned. Jean-Claude Trichet is holding his monthly press conference shortly, so there may be more to say on this later.
But it's a disappointment that the Bank's statement made no mention of the "credit easing" flagged by George Osborne, the Chancellor, in his conference speech. This is an idea worth pursuing – a way of getting the newly released funds to the bits of the economy that really need it and stimulating some much needed business investment.
As it is, I fear that it will again be the investment bankers who are the major beneficiaries. QE is like a drug; once hooked, it's very difficult to wean yourself off. Just how many fixes are required before you realise you are an addict?
What's more, as every addict knows, to get the same effect, you have to keep increasing and repeating the dose. The way things are going, the entire gilts market will end up in the hands of the Bank of England. I'm sorry, but I fail to see the difference between such an extreme position and outright monetisation of the deficit, the sort of thing they got up to in Weimar Germany. In that case, the end result was not just the destruction of middle class savings, but the currency itself.
UPDATE: ECB has announced more liquidity for the banking sector, but there's no QE even remotely to compare with what the Bank of England is doing. Now there's a surprise. Apparently, the pros and cons of cutting rates were discussed, but by "consensus", the ECB council decided to leave them unchanged. Again, no surprise there.

Why the iPad will take over the world


Why the iPad will take over the world

The Apple iPad is the ultimate browsing machine (Photo: REUTERS)
The Apple iPad is the ultimate browsing machine (Photo: REUTERS)
Apple is on the verge of releasing the latest iteration in its operating system for the iPhone and iPad. Sometime in the coming months, it is also likely to bring out a newly beefed up version of the iPad. These may not seem like particularly momentous moments to anyone but the more die-hard Apple evangelists, but for me they have underlined the fact that this little tablet is heading for domination of the mobile computing industry.
Before you dismiss this as hype, I should emphasise that this conclusion has come only after some months of reflection, consideration and intense usage of an iPad, and comparison with its competitors. I was one of those fools who bought an iPad right at the beginning, when they were just out in the US and were yet to touch down in Britain. I picked it up in Washington, where I was attending the IMF's summit, more out of hope and curiosity than an expectation that it would change my life. And the truth is I was initially rather disappointed.
I bought it wondering whether it would be the tool that meant I could throw away my laptop. And so I tried, over the following days, to use it as a journalistic tool – I tried to write articles on it (using the bluetooth keyboard – typing on the screen isn't bad, but it isn't brilliant), take notes with it, use it to read the IMF reports and send emails back home. It was an unmitigated disaster. I lost some of my most important notes because one of the applications kept crashing (this is not good news when you're a journalist – and fellow hacks are, understandably, reluctant to share notes at the best of times); cutting and pasting text (quite important when you routinely have to edit and re-edit your articles) was fiddly; there wasn't a word count in Pages, the main word processing application; you couldn't switch between different applications (multi-tasking); you couldn't search with PDF files (disastrous if you are trying to navigate a 300 page report on banking regulation), etc etc.
I never wrote this at the time (far too much going on with elections, expenses and whatnot), but my abiding feeling was that I had bought the iPad hoping to dispel all those people who said they couldn't see the point of it – and I had come out agreeing with them. What was the point of this device? Not good enough to double as a laptop, not small enough to fit in your pocket, not easy-on-the-eye to read for long periods in the same way as a Kindle. Jack of all trades and master of none – or so I thought.
What I hadn't realised was that this is pretty much the point. The iPad is a disruptive innovation. Disruption, for those of you who, like me until recently, aren't familiar with business theory, is one of the ways companies upend their bigger and older competitors in business these days. The gist is as follows: when a business comes along with an innovative product that challenges an existing one, it is often cheaper, of lower quality and is often deemed "not good enough" by potential customers.
Think of mp3s – their sound quality is far inferior to CDs, but customers realised pretty soon that they were both cheaper, more convenient and of a just about satisfactory quality. When personal computers first arrived, those who built powerful mainframe room-sized computers dismissed them as incapable – and indeed they were often so slow that they couldn't keep up with the people typing into them. But the point behind disruption is that in due course the quality of the product gets to a standard that is acceptable to consumers (and if not better than the incumbent product, it is at least cheaper). Right now, flash memory is disrupting hard disks. And so on.
The graph below tells the story: sustaining technologies, such as hard disks, or dedicated digital cameras, improve over time, but eventually reach a standard beyond what most consumers, and perhaps even high end users are after. Into the market comes the disrupting technology, for instance flash memory or cameraphones, whose qualities (be they size or picture quality) are initially well below the standards of the sustaining technology but are compensated by their cheaper price or added convenience. Sometimes a whole new range of customers enters the market at this lower price/quality point. Eventually the quality of the disrupting product can surpass the old sustaining one.
susdir2
The iPad is disruptive to notebook computers: in its first iterations it doesn't meet the exacting standards that many computer users have, so it is not an obvious replacement. It wasn't good enough for me as a journalist; or indeed for anyone who wants to use their laptop for photo manipulation, DJing, game playing and so on. But it is good enough for many others.
It is good enough for students, for instance. Since returning to college, I have found myself using the iPad more and more. It is smaller than the laptop, I can use it to read as well as take notes and write. It still isn't brilliant for article editing, but it more or less does the job (and given I don't have to pump out articles at the rate I did as a professional journalist, so be it). I produced this blog (and indeed have written almost all of my recent blogs, papers, essays and all the stuff one needs to produce at college) on it. A couple of weeks ago my laptop spontaneously combusted. It didn't matter, because by then I hadn't been using it for some months anyway.
The imminent update to the iOS takes the iPad one step forward. In comes multitasking, in comes midi support and a host of other upgrades that, gradually, remove more demanding customers' resistance to shifting down the iPad. Then along will come the next iteration, with higher resolution and more power, making it less attractive, in comparison, to own a laptop, and so on and so on.
It isn't just the iPad that's doing the disruption; it looks increasingly as if Apple's existing operating system, Mac OS, will soon be disrupted by its mobile OS, which has been inserted as a kind of trojan horse into the next update of Mac OS.
This is classic disruption, as laid out by Clay Christensen in The Innovator's Dilemma. The interesting thing in this case is that usually the company that does the disrupting is quite independent from the one that gets disrupted. In this case, Apple is disrupting itself, which is quite an achievement for a giant company. The only question is whether they can keep it up.

Icapital.biz Portfolio as of 15 September 2011


Below are the latest holdings of Icapital.biz as of 15 September 2011, as published in Investor Day booklet as compared to earlier portfolio as of 22 June 2011.

Steve Jobs: key quotes

Steve Jobs, Apple co-founder and former CEO, dies at the age of 56

Candles, flowers, and an iPhone with Steve Jobs photo displayed outside the Apple Store at West 66th Street in New York
Steve Jobs, the Apple co-founder and former CEO, has died at the age of 56
after a long and highly public battle with cancer. "Apple has lost a visionary and
creative genius and the world has lost an amazing human being," Apple said.
"Steve's brilliance, passion and energy were the source of countless innovations
that enrich and improve all of our lives."





Here are some key quotes from Steve Jobs, the legendary 
co-founder and former chief executive of Apple Inc, 
who has died aged 56 after a long battle with cancer.
Apple CEO Steve Jobs holds a new iPod shuffle MP3 player at the 2005 Macworld Expo January 11, 2005
Apple CEO Steve Jobs holds a new iPod shuffle MP3 player at the 2005 Macworld Expo January 11, 2005 Photo: Getty Images


"Remembering that I'll be dead soon is the most important tool I've ever encountered to help me make the big choices in life. Because almost everything - all external expectations, all pride, all fear of embarrassment or failure - these things just fall away in the face of death, leaving only what is truly important. Remembering that you are going to die is the best way I know to avoid the trap of thinking you have something to lose. You are already naked. There is no reason not to follow your heart.''
"Your time is limited, so don't waste it living someone else's life. Don't be trapped by dogma - which is living with the results of other people's thinking. Don't let the noise of others' opinions drown out your own inner voice.''
"Stay hungry, stay foolish."
Commencement speech at Stanford University, 2005
"Innovation comes from people meeting up in the hallways or calling each other at 10:30 at night with a new idea, or because they realized something that shoots holes in how we've been thinking about a problem. It's ad hoc meetings of six people called by someone who thinks he has figured out the coolest new thing ever and who wants to know what other people think of his idea.''
"And it comes from saying no to 1,000 things to make sure we don't get on the wrong track or try to do too much. We're always thinking about new markets we could enter, but it's only by saying no that you can concentrate on the things that are really important.''
Interview with Business Week, 2004
"In most people's vocabularies, design means veneer. It's interior decorating. It's the fabric of the curtains and the sofa. But to me, nothing could be further from the meaning of design. Design is the fundamental soul of a man-made creation that ends up expressing itself in successive outer layers of the product or service.''
"My position coming back to Apple was that our industry was in a coma. It reminded me of Detroit in the '70s, when American cars were boats on wheels.''
Interview with Fortune Magazine, 2000
"These technologies can make life easier, can let us touch people we might not otherwise. You may have a child with a birth defect and be able to get in touch with other parents and support groups, get medical information, the latest experimental drugs. These things can profoundly influence life. I'm not downplaying that. But it's a disservice to constantly put things in this radical new light - that it's going to change everything. Things don't have to change the world to be important.''
Interview with Wired, 1996
"I don't think I've ever worked so hard on something, but working on Macintosh was the neatest experience of my life. Almost everyone who worked on it will say that. None of us wanted to release it at the end. It was as though we knew that once it was out of our hands, it wouldn't be ours anymore. When we finally presented it at the shareholders' meeting, everyone in the auditorium stood up and gave it a 5-minute ovation. What was incredible to me was that I could see the Mac team in the first few rows. It was as though none of us could believe that we'd actually finished it. Everyone started crying.''
Interview with Playboy, 1985
"You think I'm an arrogant [expletive] who thinks he's above the law, and I think you're a slime bucket who gets most of his facts wrong.''
Answering a New York Times reporter who asked about his health, 2008
"We don't get a chance to do that many things, and everyone should be really excellent. Because this is our life."
Interview with Fortune, 2008
"Design is not just what it looks like. Design is how it works."
Interview with The New York Times, 2003
"Being the richest man in the cemetery doesn't matter to me. Going to bed at night saying we've done something wonderful, that's what matters to me."
Interview with The Wall Street Journal, 1993
"You can't just ask the cutomers what they want and then try to give that to them. By the time you get it built, they'll want something new."
Interview with INC magazine, 1989

Tesco sales slump into negative territory for first time since 1992

Tesco's sales have slumped into negative territory in Britain for the first time in 20 years, as its chief executive said customers were "struggling to make ends meet".
Tesco profits rise as overseas growth offsets sluggish UK sales
Tesco said it had been hit by subdued UK demand for electronics and entertainment products Photo: BLOOMBERG
Phil Clarke, who took over from Sir Terry Leahy six months ago, admitted that the company had "not been on the front foot" as he published a good set of results that were knocked by a poor performance in Britain and its stuttering move into banking.
Higher prices, especially the substantially higher cost of petrol and utility bills, have meant that many British shoppers were reluctant to drive to large out-of-town superstores.
The company said that its petrol sales had increased by £750m in the first half, compared with the same period a year ago, but nearly all of the increase was down to inflation, driven by higher prices and higher duty. "That's extraordinary," said Mr Clarke, "that's £750m that could be spent in shops or paying off credit cards."
Consumers have also noticeably cut back on non-essential household items. The company's non-food sales – an increasingly important part of its business in recent years as it has eaten into the market share of the likes of Argos and Dixons Retail – fell by 4.8pc during the first half.
Mr Clarke said consumer confidence had deteriorated in recent weeks: "I can remember bringing up a family in the late 1980s and early 1990s and it was pretty tough then when interest rates rocketed. It was bad. It feels like that. But it's different because of the global economic system – every time you open a newspaper, look at a news website, watch the television, consumers are being continually reminded that things could be more difficult next week; confidence is being harmed."
British sales excluding new store space, VAT and petrol were down 0.9pc in the three months to August 27, with sales volumes falling by an even greater amount.
This is the worst performance for 20 years. During the 1992 recession, sales volumes fell by 1pc during its first half.
Despite the sales fall, UK profits increased by 4.5pc and group profits moved up by 12.1pc to £1.88bn on total sales of £35.5bn, an increase of 8.8pc. The company has been boosted by cutting its losses in America and increased market share in Thailand and the Czech Republic.
The real disappointment came from its banking operation, which the company took full control of from RBS, its joint-venture partner. The switch to Tesco's own platforms caused serious teething problems, with customers locked out of their online accounts.
Tesco was also forced to increase its provisions for missold payment protection insurance (PPI) – a scandal that hit nearly all banks – sending trading profits at the division down 66pc to £44m.
Most analysts were happy that the solid growth in Tesco's international business more than offset its difficulties in the UK.
Jonathan Pritchard at Oriel Securities said: "The PPI and IT-based problems at the bank are irritants rather than fundamental problems and thus we do have to downgrade headline PBT numbers today, but we feel as though momentum in the food retailing side of Tesco is on the turn."
Mr Clarke said the "Big Price Drop" campaign, which started last week in its British stores would make a genuine difference to struggling customers, contrary to rivals' claims that it is a marketing gimmick. He said lower prices on food such as milk and mince would keep inflation to just a quarter of the official rate, which last month ran at 6.2pc. "There's no smoke and there aren't any mirrors," he said, adding that the initiative put Tesco "back on the front foot".
The interim dividend of 4.63p, up 5.9pc, will be paid on December 23. Tesco shares climbed 13.15 to 393.25p.

UK house prices fell 0.5pc in September, declining for a second month.

UK house prices fell 0.5pc in September, declining for a second month. Compared to this time last year, prices are down 0.7pc to an average £161,132, Halifax figures show.
Reuters has produced this interesting graph of how house prices have correlated to average earnings over the last 30 years. We're still above the average of four times earnings, but creeping closer.



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8782663/Debt-crisis-live.html



House prices fall for second month in a row - Halifax

Mortgage lender Halifax said the property market continued to lack direction after it reported a second successive month of lower prices.

House prices fall for second month in a row - Halifax
Halifax economist Martin Ellis said September's drop continued the mixed monthly picture so far this year with four rises, four falls and one month of no change in prices. Photo: ALAMY
A decline of 0.5pc in September followed a fall of 1.1pc in August, although Halifax said average prices in the quarter to September were still 0.1pc higher than the previous three months - the first such rise since early 2010.
Halifax housing economist Martin Ellis said September's drop continued the mixed monthly picture so far this year with four rises, four falls and one month of no change in prices.
He said: "This mixed pattern is consistent with a market where prices are lacking genuine direction."
The average UK house price in September was 1pc lower than in December 2010 on a seasonally adjusted basis, at £161,132.
Mr Ellis said the financial uncertainty was likely to be constraining demand but added that low interest rates and a rise in employment over the last year have been supporting the market.
"We expect little change over the remainder of this year," he said.
Typical mortgage payments for a new borrower have fallen from a peak of 48pc of average disposable earnings in mid 2007 to 26pc in the most recent quarter. This is well below the average of 37pc over the past 25 years and the lowest since 1997, the lender said.
This week, price comparison website MoneySupermarket said the average fixed two-year mortgage deal of 3.82pc was the lowest since it began compiling records in 2007, down from 4.01pc in August.
The latest drive downwards saw Leeds Building Society launch its lowest ever two-year fixed-rate mortgage with a rate of 1.99pc.

Capitulation: Hurry the ship is sinking everyone jump off!


Capitulation: Hurry the ship is sinking everyone jump off!

stock market capitulationCapitulation is what occurs when people in the stock market       panic and start selling all of their stocks. This is typically defined by a decline in the markets of at least 10% in one day.
While this may sound like a very bad thing, it can become a positive thing as well if you are a wise investor. This is because after the panic sell off, a knowledgeable investor can buy some quality stocks at bargain prices.

It should be said that investors do not capitulate very often. The worst example was thestock market crash of 1929. It took 25 years for the markets to return to their pre-crash levels. Many things have changed since then to regulate the markets better so a similar crash is not likely. The next closest example would be in 1987 when the markets dropped 20% in one day. However, that time it only took 1.5 years for the markets to return.

http://www.lucky-dog-investing.com/capitulation.html