Professor Swensen's Asset Allocation Strategy

@ 15 minutes

3 ways to make money:
Asset Allocation
Market Timing
Stock Selection




David Swensen is the chief investment officer of Yale University, where he has produced stunning results in managing portfolios over 25 years. In this lecture, he talks about managing a portfolio for individual investors and stresses on the importance of diversification and equity-orientation.

Special Lecture in Seoul April 2010

Yale's Financial Wizard, David Swensen.

Uploaded on 27 May 2009
Yale's Financial Wizard, David Swensen. The renowned Chief Investment Officer of Yale's $20 billion dollar endowment discusses the strategy behind the fund's extraordinary long term track record, recent criticisms of the "Yale model" and his investment recommendations for individual investors.

Guest Speaker David Swensen (YaleCourses)

Published on 5 Apr 2012

Financial Markets (2011) (ECON 252)

00:00 - Chapter 1. Introduction, Overview, and "Barron's" Criticism of the Swensen Approach to Endowment Management
15:49 - Chapter 2. Asset Allocation
30:38 - Chapter 3. Market Timing
37:16 - Chapter 4. Security Selection
46:02 - Chapter 5. "Barron's" Criticism Revisited
52:57 - Chapter 6. Questions & Answers

Complete course materials are available at the Open Yale Courses website: http://oyc.yale.edu

Open Yale Course：Financial Markets 09. Guest Lecture by David Swensen

Ideas for Investment Success

Uploaded on 24 Mar 2011
David Swensen is a so-called legendary institutional investor who has survived a harsh investment environment over several decades. In his interview, he suggests the elegantly simple advice for you to have to follow for your investment success.

David Bach's #1 Financial Mistake to Avoid

Corruption is still the scourge. Please vote wisely for a better society.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=500613263339497&set=vb.296868620365231&type=2&theater





@ 2.50 min  Until 5 or 6 years ago, a 10 A student from a poor family was unable to get a scholarship from the government.

@ 6.30 min.  His explanation on why his donation of $30 million was rejected by UTAR..

@ 10.10 min.  How politics and the awarding of contracts without tenders, impoverished you?

The Politics of Fear, Mistruth and Confusion - Different message targeted at different crowd.

If only our politicians can ALWAYS address to a mixed Malaysian crowd in every election gathering.


Ghani: If Kit wins, Hadi might be PM
Vote Lim Kit Siang and you might get PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang as your next prime minister, warned Gelang Patah candidate and incumbent Johor menteri besar Abdul Ghani Othman to Chinese voters in the constituency.

MCA:  If PR wins, PAS would dominate the coalition.
However BN, especially MCA, has been warning the Chinese that PAS, which has the strongest machinery and largest membership among three parties, would dominate Pakatan and grab the premiership when Pakatan comes to power.

UMNO:  If PR wins, DAP will dominate the coalition.
Umno, on the other hand, is trying to convince Malay voters that DAP would be the dominant power in the coalition.


http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/227552

Not a surprise that BN candidate for Pasir Mas parliamentary seat withdrew.

This is not unexpected.   BN was suggested by TDM to field Ibrahim Ali, the President for Perkasa in this election.  This would be most unacceptable for some component parties of BN and not a popular move for some segment of the Malaysian society.

Even before this "unexpected event", it was already rumoured that BN candidate for Pasir Mas would withdraw and this seat would be a direct contest between Ibrahim Ali and PAS.

Sorry for those folks, especially the component parties of BN, who think that the true representative announced by Najib will be their candidate to represent BN and to win this seat for BN.

In true partnership and friendship, we should value INTEGRITY, above all else.

KLCCP to list stapled REIT by May

Posted on 9 April 2013

KUALA LUMPUR (April 9, 2013): KLCC Property Holdings Bhd (KLCCP), which is expected to list its stapled real estate investment trust (REIT) by early May this year, is in the process of securing an anchor tenant for its latest development in the Kuala Lumpur City Centre (KLCC) area, said its group CEO Hashim Wahir.

"We are not a speculative developer. What we're working on now is to secure the anchor tenant and once it is secured, then we will start planning (for the development). Our target has always been the multinationals because we would like to enhance the precinct by having a mix of tenants," he told reporters after its EGM yesterday.

Hashim said the 0.6ha vacant land in front of Mandarin Oriental in Kuala Lumpur, known as Lot D1, could possibly be an office building with retail component but the building plans will only be confirmed once it has secured the anchor tenant.

"It can be equivalent to Menara 3 Petronas, with one million sq ft of gross floor area," he said, adding that it is in talks with potential anchor tenants but declined to comment on when it expects to finalise talks.

At yesterday's meeting, shareholders approved KLCCP's proposal to create Malaysia's first syariah-compliant stapled REIT in Malaysia, including the injection of Petronas Twin Towers, Menara 3 Petronas and Menara ExxonMobil into the REIT vehicle, KLCC REIT.

Hashim said KLCCP will retain the remaining assets which are Dayabumi Complex, Suria KLCC and Mandarin Oriental, as well as the management services namely KLCC REIT Management Sdn Bhd which will be formed under KLCCP as the manager of the REIT.

"We have a three-pronged growth strategy. We have retained Dayabumi Complex, which has quite a significant redevelopment potential. That's why we're not injecting it into the REIT yet.

"We also have Lot D1, which has a significant development potential," he said.

"Once the assets are stable, we can inject it into the REIT. Of course, we have the normal growth as mentioned, our tenancy will have rental increases and under this arrangement, we also have the first right of refusal on future assets belonging to KLCC (Holdings) Sdn Bhd, which is the ultimate shareholders of KLCCP Stapled Group before Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas)," he added.

In November last year, KLCCP announced that it had signed 15-year triple net lease agreement with Petronas in regard to the Petronas Twin Towers effective Oct 1, 2012. During the first three years, rental would be RM29.1 million per month.

At the same time, its wholly-owned subsidiary Arena Merdu Sdn Bhd also signed a 15-year triple net lease agreement for Menara 3 Petronas, where rental for the first three years would be RM6.1 million per month.

Hashim said the rental rates will be reviewed every three years and the increase in rental rates would be 3% per year, compounded every three years. For its other properties, the leases are between three and five years and will be reviewed based on the market.

On acquiring new assets, he said: "We are focusing on developing what we have in our portfolio but any opportunities that come by that meets the profile of our investment, adds to the value creation of our shareholders and REIT unit holders in future, it will be considered."

Meanwhile, KLCCP director Datuk Manharlal Ratilal said the KLCCP Stapled Group will become one of the largest property groups in Asia, with a RM12 billion market capitalisation if the restructuring exercise and listing proceed as planned.

"The three assets (Petronas Twin Towers, Menara 3 Petronas and Menara ExxonMobil) are worth about RM15 billion. The group's debt is around RM2.3 billion and the balance is the market capitalisation," he said.

KLCCP Stapled Group intends to distribute 95% of the overall distributable income to unit holders for 2013 and 2014. The REIT will be the largest in Malaysia, almost three times bigger than Sunway REIT.

http://www.thesundaily.my/news/656556

Aeon Credit to issue rights, bonus shares?

Posted on 16 April 2013 - 05:38am

Kang Siew Li
sunbiz@thesundaily.com

PETALING JAYA (April 16, 2013): Non-bank financial institution Aeon Credit Service (M) Bhd is expected to seek clearance from its board of directors at a meeting on Thursday for a capital raising exercise via a rights issue as well as to undertake a bonus issue to reward its shareholders, according to sources close to the situation.

The company is due to release its full-year results for the financial year ended Feb 20, 2013 (FY13) on the same day.

Analysts told SunBiz they are not surprised by Aeon Credit's proposed cash-call as management has indicated its plan to raise the company's capital base for a while now.

"The main purpose of the equity raising is to boost its capital adequacy ratio to 25% from 18% now, which is nearing Bank Negara Malaysia's minimum level of 16%," said an analyst at a local research firm.

"Aeon Credit may also raise debt to fund future growth. In its annual report, the company had said it would be comfortable with a gearing ratio of 3-5 times and it is now less than 4 times," he added.

A Kenanga Research analyst said the rights issue will support Aeon Credit's loan growth plans for the next two to three years, while the bonus issue will help to improve the stock's liquidity and attract more retail participation.

He noted while the rights issue may result in a dilution of Aeon Credit's share value, the stock will remain attractive to investors post the exercise due to its healthy financial position and sound profitability, and a downward adjustment from its existing high share price.

Aeon Credit closed up 8 sen at RM14.32 yesterday, with 96,700 shares traded.

In a report dated April 12, 2013, HwangDBS Vickers Research Sdn Bhd said a capital call by Aeon Credit is probable since its capital ratio has fallen to 19% in November 2012 and it has always kept a higher buffer of above 20% than Bank Negara's 16% requirement.

"We are positive on the potential fund raising as this will shore up its balance sheet to support future growth, while the enlarged share base could improve trading liquidity," it said.

The research firm also sees the company raising debt to fund growth and refinance some of its medium-term notes which are expiring in the next 12 months, estimated to be RM400 million.

"In our scenario analysis, we assume Aeon Credit could do a rights issue on the basis of 1-for-9 at an indicative issue price of RM12.90 (based on 10% discount to a theoretical ex-rights price of RM14.30), and raise RM210 million to bring its capital ratio to 25%.

"We estimate the enlarged share base (+11%) would dilute earnings per share and return on equity by 5% and 7 percentage points respectively in FY14," it said.

HwangDBS is expecting Aeon Credit to deliver record net profit of RM129 million in FY13, up 35% from a year earlier, with the loan book growing 54% to RM2.3 billion.

"The key drivers remain personal loans and vehicle easy payments as Aeon Credit fills the financing needs of customers in the low to middle income segment," it said, maintaining a "hold" call on the stock with a RM16.10 target price.

http://www.thesundaily.my/news/662692

A Young Boy singing "Ini kali lah TUKAR."

LIM KIT SIANG'S PRESS CONFERENCE FROM UBAH TV

Jim Rogers: We're Wiping out the Savings Class Globally, to Terrible Consequence

Jim Rogers decries the growing uncertainty and recklessness of global central planners as the world enters unchartered financial markets:

For the first time in recorded history, we have nearly every central bank printing money and trying to debase their currency. This has never happened before. How it’s going to work out, I don't know. It just depends on which one goes down the most and first, and they take turns. When one says a currency is going down, the question is against what? because they are all trying to debase themselves. It’s a peculiar time in world history.

I own the dollar, not because I have any confidence in the dollar and not because it’s sound – it’s a terribly flawed currency – but I expect more currency turmoil, more financial turmoil. During periods like that, people, for whatever reason, flee to the U.S. dollar as a safe haven. It is not a safe haven, but it is perceived that way by some people. That’s why the dollar is going up. That’s why I own it. Will I own it in five years, ten years? I don't know. 

It makes it extremely difficult for the investor looking for acceptable risk/reward or the saver looking to protect their purchasing power; as in Rogers' view, all options have their problems:

I own gold and silver and precious metals. I own all commodities, which is a better way to play as they debase currencies. I own more agriculture than just about anything else in real assets because of the reasons we discussed before. We were talking before about the risk-free or worry-free investment. Even gold: the Indian politicians are talking about coming down hard on gold, and India is the largest buyer of gold in the world. If Indian politicians do something -- whether it’s foolish or not is irrelevant -- if they do something, gold could go down a lot. So I own it. I’m not selling it. But everything has problems.

To Rogers, the bigger danger that concerns him is the hollowing out of the 'saving class' resulting from this situation. Central planners' policies are punishing the prudent in favor of rescuing the irresponsible. This has happened before in world history, and the aftermath has always had grievous economic, social -- and often human -- costs:

Throughout our history – any country’s history – the people who save their money and invest for their future are the ones that you build an economy, a society, and a nation on.

In America, many people saved their money, put it aside, and didn’t buy four or five houses with no job and no money down. They did what most people would consider the right thing, and what historically has been the right thing. But now, unfortunately, those people are being wiped out, because they are getting 0% return, or virtually no return, on their savings and their investments. We’re wiping them out at the expense of people who went deeply into debt, people who did what most people would consider the wrong thing at the expense of people who did the right thing. This, long-term, has terrible consequences for any nation, any society, any economy.

If you go back in history, you'll see what happed to the Germans when they wiped out their savings class in the 1920s. It didn’t lead to good things down the road for Germany. It didn’t lead to good things for Italy, which did the same thing. There were plenty of countries where it wiped out the people who saved and invested for their future. It’s usually a serious, political reaction, desperation in some cases, and looking for a savior and easy answers is usually what happens when you destroy the people who save and invest for the future.

Secret of the Wealthy

Asset Allocation: Building a Better Balanced Portfolio

Portfolio Allocation for Peak Earners

Tesco Profit Hit by Write-Downs

Tesco Profit Hit by Write-Downs

BY KATHY GORDON

LONDON—Tesco PLC on Wednesday counted the cost of years of ambitious expansion under former chief Terry Leahy, as the U.K. supermarket operator's profit for the year was all but wiped out by payments to clean up its domestic business and a charge related to its failed U.S. venture.

Full-year net profit fell for the first time in 19 years, to £124 million ($190.5 million) from £2.81 billion a year earlier. The figure was hit by a £1.17 billion charge on the retailer's failed U.S. chain Fresh & Easy, and a £804 million write-down on property in the U.K.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324493704578427933954071390.html?ru=yahoo&mod=yahoo_hs

17 April 2013
Preliminary Results Announcement 2012/13 Tesco PLC’s Preliminary Results 2012/13 were announced today at 7.00am. View all results materials including full release and Philip Clarke's blog post. Financial highlights £3.5bn trading profit – year-on-year performance largely reflects UK reinvestment Final dividend maintained at 10.13p, giving full-year dividend of 14.76p. Good progress in the UK, delivering improved results – for customers and for Tesco Strong online performance: Group sales of over £3bn for the first time – up 13% Confirming exit from the United States – process well-advanced. F+F brand clothing sales now exceed £1bn in UK alone, with +9% LFL sales growth Clear approach to future growth, capital expenditure, returns and cash, providing clarity for shareholders Philip Clarke – Chief Executive "The announcements made today are natural consequences of the strategic changes we first began over a year ago and which conclude today.  With profound and rapid change in the way consumers live their lives, our objective is to be the best multichannel retailer for customers. Our plan to 'Build a Better Tesco' is on track and I am pleased with the real progress in the UK.  We have already made substantial improvements to our customers' shopping experience, which are starting to be reflected in a better performance. We have set the business on the right track to deliver realistic, sustainable and attractive returns and long-term growth for shareholders. The consequences are non-cash write-offs relating to the United States, from which we today confirm our decision to exit, and for UK property investments which we will not pursue because of our fundamentally different approach to space. We have also faced external challenges which have affected our performance, notably in Europe and Korea. Our focus now is on disciplined and targeted investment in those markets with significant growth potential and the opportunity to deliver strong returns." View full release.

Margin of Safety. Paying Up Doesn't Pay Off

Paying Up Doesn't Pay Off
	1999	2004	1999	2004	5-Year	5-Year
	P/E	P/E	Price $	Price $	EPS Growth	Total Return
Coca Cola	47	20	58	42	66%	-28%
Pfizer	42	13	32	27	165%	-16%
Wal-Mart	58	23	69	53	93%	-23%
Dell	75	35	51	42	78%	-18%
Microsoft	78	21	58	27	69%	-53%
Intel	36	21	41	24	-4%	-41%
Cisco	134	24	54	19	100%	-65%
Average	67	22	52	33	81%	-35%

The above chart contains seven of the best businesses in existence.

In the five years from 1999 to 2004, these wonders of American business boosted their earnings per share by an average of 81%, yet had you invested in all of them in 1999, your aggregate return would have been a disappointing negative 35%.

The cause of your loss would be the high price you paid for these businesses in 1999 when their price/earnings ratio averaged a breathtaking 67 times.

By 2004, the average price/earnings ratio had returned to a more rational 22 times, more than offsetting the spectacular gains in earnings per share posted by these corporate giants.

An intelligent investor would have recognized that even for the greatest businesses in the world, at 67 times earnings, Mr. Market was asking too high a price and no margin of safety was available.

MARGIN OF SAFETY

If you had asked Graham to distill the secret of sound investing into three words, he might have replied, "margin of safety/"  These are still the right three words and will remain so for as long as humans are unable to accurately predict the future.

As Graham repeatedly warned, any estimate of intrinsic value is based on numerous assumptions about the future, which are unlikely to be completely accurate.  By allowing yourself a margin of safety - paying only $60 for a stock you think is worth $100, for example - you provide for errors in your forecasts and unforeseeable events that may alter the business landscape.

Just think, if you were asked to build a bridge over which 10,000 pound trucks were to pass, would you build it to hold exactly 10,000 pounds.  Of course not - you'd build the bridge to hold 15,000 or 20,000 pounds.  That is your margin of safety.

Think Independently. You should derive no comfort in either standing with or against the crowd.

Warren Buffett said the best advice he ever got from Graham was to think independently.

Just as you ignore Mr. Market's daily communications (unless, of course, he gives you an interesting quote), you should also derive no comfort in either standing with or against the crowd.

As Graham wrote, "You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees with you.  You are right because your data and reasoning are right."

If you have reached a rational conclusion about a stock based on sound judgement, you should act even though others around you may hesitate or differ.