Introduction to the Right Way to invest in Stocks - Value Investing

Why invest in stocks on your own

Warren Buffett and his Principles

Introducing Benjamin Graham and his Principles

How to Stay Out of Debt: Warren Buffett - Financial Future of American Youth (1999)

@2.30  Focus on your own earning potential.  How to realise your full potential? Education to unlock this potential.  Next is developing the right habits (integrity, smart and energetic).
@7.38:  A piece of financial advice.  Avoid credit cards.  Save. Save. Save.  Be ahead of the game.
@23.50  Advice for youth on how to ensure their financial future.  Develop your full potential.  Most people go through life in a "sleep walk".  Always be ahead of the game.  Save. Save. Save.  Don't be behind the game. Have net resources and not having debt.  Don't get behind by buying a lot of things that you have to pay interest on.
@27.00  Buffett's advice on students' education debts.  High price education versus lesser price education. You need to be prodded in the right direction, but most education is SELF TAUGHT.
@38.30:  How does Warren Buffett decide how to invest his time and money in?
@47.50   Warren Buffett's advise those who are interested in stocks and how they can get involved in this..
(His previous 8 years involvement with stock led him to reading Intelligent Investor when this book was written.)

Warren Buffett's Investment Checklist

Warren Buffett's Investment Checklist

How would your firm look to the premier investor? What does great investment potential look like to Mr. Buffett?(ed.)

A checklist for the stock selector; the Warren Buffett criteria:

Is the business simple and understandable?

"An investor needs to do very few things right as long as he or she avoids big mistakes." Above-average returns are often produced by doing ordinary things exceptionally well.

Does the business have a consistent operating history?

Buffett's experience has been that the best returns are achieved by companies that have been producing the same product or service for several years.

Does the business have favourable long-term prospects?

Buffett sees the economic world as being divided into franchises and commodity businesses. He defines a franchise as a company providing a product or service that is (1) needed or desired, (2) has no close substitute, and (3) is not regulated. Look for the franchise business.

Is the management rational with its capital?

A company that provides average or below-average investment returns but generates cash in excess of its needs has three options: (1) It can ignore the problem and continue to reinvest at below average rates, (2) it can buy growth, or (3) it can return the money to shareholders. It is here that management will behave rationally or irrationally. In Buffett's mind, the only reasonable and responsible course is to return that money to shareholders by raising the dividend, or buying back shares.

Is management candid with the shareholders?

Buffett says, "What needs to be reported is data - whether GAAP, non-GAAP, or extra-GAAP - that helps the financially literate readers answer three key questions: (1) Approximately how much is this company worth? (2) What is the likelihood that it can meet its future obligations? and (3) How good a job are its managers doing, given the hand they have been dealt?" "The CEO who misleads others in public may eventually mislead himself in private."

Does management resist the institutional imperative?

According to Buffett, the institutional imperative exists when "(1) an institution resists any change in its current direction; (2) just as work expands to fill available time, corporate projects or acquisitions will materialize to soak up available funds; (3) any business craving of the leader, however foolish, will quickly be supported by detailed rate-of-return and strategic studies prepared by his troops; and (4) the behaviour of peer companies, whether they are expanding, acquiring, setting executive compensation or whatever, will be mindlessly imitated."

Is the focus on Return On Equity?

"The primary test of managerial economic performance is the achievement of a high earnings rate on equity capital employed (without undue leverage, accounting gimmickry, etc.) and not the consistent gains in earnings per share."

What is the rate of "owner earnings"?

Buffett prefers to modify the cash flow ratio to what he calls "owner earnings" - a company's net income plus depreciation, depletion and amortization, less the amount of capital expenditures and any additional working capital that might be needed. Owner earnings are not precise and calculating future capital expenditures requires rough estimates.

Is there a high profit margin?

In Buffett's experience, managers of high-cost operations continually add to overhead, whereas managers of low-cost operations are always finding ways to cut expenses. Berkshire Hathaway is a low-cost operation with after-tax overhead corporate expense of less than 1 percent of operating earnings, compared to other companies with similar earnings but 10 percent corporate expenses.

Has the company created at least one dollar of market value, for every dollar retained?

Buffett explains, "Within this gigantic (stock market) auction arena, it is our job to select a business with economic characteristics allowing each dollar of retained earnings to be translated into at least a dollar of market value."

What is the value of the business?

Price is established by the stock market. Buffett tells us the value of a business is determined by the net cash flows expected to occur over the life of the business, discounted at an appropriate interest rate, and he uses the rate of the long-term U.S. government bond.

Can it be purchased at a significant discount to its value?

Having put a value on the business, Buffett then builds in a margin of safety and buys at prices far below their indicated value.

Reference to Robert Hagstrom's book The Warren Buffett Way, John Wiley & Sons Inc., New York, 1994. 

http://www.refresher.com/!buffett2.html

Warren Buffett: "For every dollar retained by the corporation, at least one dollar of market value must be created for owners."

Each dollar of retained earnings is translated into at least one dollar of market

Hey guys,

Been reading the warrent buffet way book, however, I am not too sure if my understanding of the phrase below is 100% correct.

"Each dollar of retained earnings is translated into atleast one dollar of market value."

Retained earnings are the profits from the company right?

So if company X makes 100 million retained profit, they reinvested 100 million back into the company million, they would make another 100 million profit from it?

Therefore translating to at least one dollar of market value right?



Thanks heaps!!!

Not quite, retained earnings is profits from the business less any dividends paid out to shareholders, and its a component of "shareholder equity" in the balance sheet. So if a company makes $100 in total profit and pays out $20 in dividends, retained earnings would be $80.

Market value is the market cap of the company. So if the company has increased retained earnings by $80 a year you want the market cap (share price times total number of issued shares) to increase by at least $80 if not more. It is a measurement of whether or not the company's share price is keeping up with the growth of the company's earnings, and the amount by which it increases over the amount of retained earnings will reflect that company's return on equity over and above the cost of capital. 

In other words, do not buy companies whose share price is declining over the long term, as this indicates a poor return on retained earnings.


http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9262-Each-dollar-of-retained-earnings-is-translated-into-at-least-one-dollar-of-market

Allocation of capital is crucial to business and investment management.

Managers and owners should think hard about the circumstances under which earnings should be retained and under which they should be distributed.

1.   All earnings are not created equal.

In many businesses, particularly those that have high asset/profit ratios, inflation causes some or all of the reported earnings to become ersatz (inferior substitutes).  The ersatz portion - let's call these earnings "restricted" - cannot, if the business is to retain its economic position, be distributed as dividends.  Were these earnings to be paid out, the business would lose ground in one or more of the following areas: its ability to maintain its unit volume of sales, its long-term competitive position, its financial strength.  No matter how conservative its payout ratio, a company that consistently distributes restricted earnings is destined for oblivion unless equity capital is otherwise infused.

2.  Restricted earnings are seldom valueless to owners, but they often must be discounted heavily.  In effect, they are conscripted by the business, no matter how poor its economic potential.

(This retention-no-matter how unattractive-the-return situation was communicated unwittingly in a marvelously ironic way by Consolidated Edison a decade ago.  At the time, a punitive regulatory policy was a major factor causing the company's stock to sell as low as one-fourth of book value; i.e., every time a dollar of earnings was retained for reinvestment in the business, that dollar was transformed into only 25 cents of market value.  But, despite this gold-into-lead process, most earnings were reinvested in the business rather than paid to owners.  Meanwhile, at construction and maintenance sites throughout New York, signs proudly proclaimed the corporate slogan, "Dig We Must.")

3.  The much-more-valued unrestricted variety of earnings may, with equal feasibility, be retained or distributed.  Management should choose whichever course makes greater sense for the owners of the business.

This principle is not universally accepted.  For a number of reasons, managers like to withhold unrestricted, readily distributable earnings from shareholders - to expand the corporate empire over which the managers rule, to operate from a position of exceptional financial comfort, etc.  But there is only one valid reason for retention.  Unrestricted earnings should be retained only when there is a reasonable prospect - backed preferably by historical evidence or, when appropriate, by a thoughtful analysis of the future - that for every dollar retained by the corporation, at least one dollar of market value will be created for owners.  This will happen only if the capital retained produces incremental earnings equal to, or above, those generally available to investors

4.  In judging whether managers should retain earnings, shareholders should not simply compare total incremental earnings in recent years to total incremental capital because that relationship may be distorted by what is going on in a core business.

During an inflationary period, companies with a core business characterized by extraordinary economic can use small amounts of incremental capital in that business at very high rates of return.  But unless they are experiencing tremendous unit growth, outstanding businesses by definition generate large amounts of excess cash.  If a company sinks most of this money in other businesses that earn low returns, the company's overall return on retained capital may nevertheless appear excellent because of the extraordinary returns being earned by the portion of earnings incrementally invested in the core business.  The situation is analogous to a Pro-Am golf event:  Even if all the amateurs are hopeless duffers, the team's best-ball score will be respectable because of the dominating skills of the professional.


Ref:  Warren Buffett

The divergent styles of value investing

1.  Some of the value investors invest only in superior businesses that they intend to own for decades, if not forever.

2.  Others, are looking for damaged goods that have been thrown on a rubbish heap, even though the assets or businesses are still worth something.

3.  Some investors run portfolios with six or eight stocks, others will own more than a hundred companies at any one time.

4.  Some of them buy bonds of  companies headed for or already in bankruptcy, thinking that either the bonds will be redeemed for more than their cost or that they will end up owning equity in a reorganized company as it emerges from bankruptcy.

5.  Some seek to avoid the crowd by concentrating on small and tiny companies; others prefer the stability and predictability of established firms with good businesses.

6.  Some try to buy shares in companies that they feel will command a premium from an industrial purchaser who wants to own the whole firm.

7.  Others play that role themselves and purchase the entire company.


There are many dimensions along which value investors differ from one another in how they select their companies: size, quality, growth prospects, asset backing, location (domestic only or more international), and so on.  They also differ on how they assemble their portfolios:  broadly diversified, industry-weighted to take advantage of a circle of  competence, moderately concentrated, or tightly focused.

All put the most emphasis on the "quality of company" dimension.  The quality dimension entails preferences concerning valuation approaches (assets, earnings, growth), the breadth of the portfolio (better companies generally mean more concentration), and the expected time for holding the shares (for the deeply discounted stock, until they recover; for the great companies, forever).

Direct and active investing is a dangerous game, not a trick one can do casually at home.  The easy availability of real-time security prices and inexpensive trading has convinced many otherwise sensible people that investing on their own will provide both enjoyment and profit.

When Mr. Market creates opportunities for value investors by overreacting to information or otherwise plunging to an extreme, most participants are part of that herd, not the few standing to the side.  To recall a piece of wisdom Warren Buffett frequently cites, if you have been in the poker game for thirty minutes and still don't know who the patsy is, you can be pretty certain the patsy is you.

Ref:  Bruce Greenwald

The market prices reflect the sentiment of the investors. To protect oneself from the volatilities of the market prices, the smart investor needs to understand the value of the business he is investing into.

It is the nature of the market that prices of a stock can be pushed to very low level when the crowd is pessimistic.  On the other hand, the prices of these same stock can be pushed to very high level when the crowd is optimistic.  The reasons maybe fundamental or sentimental.

The market prices reflect thus the sentiment of the investors.  However, the value of a stock is unlikely to change very much during these short periods when the market prices may change drastically.

To protect oneself from the volatilities of the market prices, the smart investor needs to understand the value of the business he is investing into.

More investors lose money when they overpay for the stocks when the crowd is overoptimistic.  Many hold onto losses in unbelievable denial.  This is evident whenever the price of a stock falls.  Why does the price of a stock fall?  Often these investors blame many external factors for the fall, when in fact, the single most important reason is themselves, they overpaid for the stock during period of over-optimism.

Think Like the Great Investors: Make Better Decisions and Raise Your Investing to a New Level

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Risk aversion is a concept in psychology, economics, and finance, based on the behavior of humans (especially consumers and investors) while exposed to uncertainty to attempt to reduce that uncertainty.

Risk aversion is the reluctance of a person to accept a bargain with an uncertain payoff rather than another bargain with a more certain, but possibly lower, expected payoff. 

For example, a risk-averse investor might choose to put his or her money into a bank account with a low but guaranteed interest rate, rather than into a stock that may have high expected returns, but also involves a chance of losing value.

Summary:

Due to risk aversion:
1.  The "investor" did not invest into stocks for fear of short term losses, despite knowing that stocks provide better returns than cash or bonds in the long run..
2.  The "investor" sold his winners too early to avoid losses..
3.  The "investor" hung onto his losing stocks, in the hope that the prices will recover and thereby avoiding realising his losses.

In all the above ways, the motivation is fear, which results in poor decision making..

Early research by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky found people place greater value on avoiding losses than on making gains.  

Not only that, but they prefer a small certain gain to a larger potential one.

Nicholson says investing should be managed like a business. 

Some decisions work out and some don't: if an investment doesn't work, sell; if it works, let it continue.

Unfortunately, most people do the reverse.

''The most valuable thing I have learnt over more than 30 years of investing in stocks is that great investors think differently. They understand that investing is about managing uncertainty,''


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Decision making in a sideways market

Date  July 31, 2013

Barbara Drury

Shakespeare wrote that life was a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. He could have been writing about the sharemarket - up one day, down the next, going nowhere. And that leaves investors in a quandary.

Most investors understand that shares provide better returns in the long run than cash or bonds, but the fear of short-term losses stops them acting on it. When markets are choppy with no clear direction, investors tend either to hesitate on the sidelines and miss opportunities, or sell too early to avoid a loss.

Either way, the motivation is fear, which results in poor decision making. ''The most valuable thing I have learnt over more than 30 years of investing in stocks is that great investors think differently. They understand that investing is about managing uncertainty,'' professional investor Colin Nicholson says. In his latest book, he discusses the common decision-making traps investors fall into and how to avoid them, drawing on the field of behavioural finance. Early research by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky found people place greater value on avoiding losses than on making gains. Not only that, but they prefer a small certain gain to a larger potential one.

Further behavioural finance studies have found that an aversion to losses caused people to sell their winning stocks too early and hold their losers too long in the hope the share price would recover. Nicholson says investing should be managed like a business. Some decisions work out and some don't: if an investment doesn't work, sell; if it works, let it continue. Unfortunately, most people do the reverse.

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''We are in a sideways market at the moment, which is the most difficult of all to invest in,'' Nicholson says. ''Any fool can make money in a rising market. And if investors are half-smart they can avoid falling markets. But in a sideways market you need to be a stock picker and you need to preserve capital.''

A practical way to achieve this is to use stop losses. Nicholson says the key attributes of great investors are patience, discipline and perspective. ''People get caught up in the psychology of the crowd,'' he says. ''If you can step back and get some perspective it helps.''

Reading about market history is helpful, but before you invest you need a plan.

''One of the ways to deal with inertia and fear is to have a written investment plan that sets out how you select stocks and manage your investments, so no matter what the market throws at you, you know what to do,'' Nicholson says.

Think Like the Great Investors: Make Better Decisions and Raise Your Investing to a New Level, by Colin Nicholson, 2013, Wiley.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/money/decision-making-in-a-sideways-market-20130730-2qvhe.html#ixzz2ahFdpHNZ

How does Buffett make his picks? His 5 investment criteria.

How does Buffett make his picks? 

In short, he uses the following five investment criteria.

● Free cash flow of at least $250 million.

● Net profit margin of 15% or more.

● Return on equity of at least 15% for each of the past three years and the most recent quarter.

● One dollar’s worth of shareholder equity created for every dollar of retained earnings over the past five years.

● Market capitalization of at least $500 million.


One more criterion is added to eliminate overvalued stocks: comparing our five-year discounted cash flow estimate with the current price.

Ref:  http://www.thestockadvisors.com/Main-Section/SP-buys-that-pass-the-Buffett-test.html

"Many stock options in the corporate world have worked in exactly that fashion: they have gained in value simply because of management retained earnings, not because it did well with the capital in its hands. " ~ Warren Buffet

Warren Buffet once stated - "Unrestricted earnings should be retained only where there is a reasonable prospect - backed preferably by historical evidence or, when appropriate by a thoughtful analysis of the future - that for every dollar retained by the corporation, at least one dollar of market value will be created for owners. This will happen only if the capital retained produces incremental earnings equal to, or above, those generally available to investors." Hence for a booming business, the primary goal is to create 1$ in market for every 1$ of the retained earnings.

Read more at Buzzle: http://www.buzzle.com/articles/retained-earnings-calculation.html

The importance of understanding your own behaviours in relation to your actions in investing; once understood, you will be able to apply your preferred investing style consistently without emotional or psychological bias.

The  person capable of standing back may notice that change is the one constant.  

One might do well to stand back and consider whether a perceived truth is indeed so, or whether in fact the more things apparently change, the more some things do indeed remain the same.

Following the crowd and abandoning a commitment to a long-term approach in a business you bought into believing it to be sound could lead to a real loss, especially if, six months later, it turns out that the crowd consisted of ill-informed speculating lemmings and now the shares you sold have doubled in value as sanity returned to the market.

The importance of understanding your own behaviours in relation to your actions cannot be over-stated. 

Once understood, you will be able to apply your preferred investing style consistently without emotional or psychological bias.  Something which is easier said than done.  

"An optimist will tell you the glass is half-full;
the pessimist, half-empty; and
the engineer will tell you the glass is twice the size it needs to be."

Investing is NOT Speculation

There is a difference between speculation and investing.  

One distinction defined this by the length of time over which the investor expects to realise their investment; or to put it another way, how quickly one expects to make money.  

Speculation is high-risk-get-rich-quick territory.

Investing is managed risk over long periods of time where you can acquire wealth slowly.  

[  I am an investor by nature, not a speculator.
I am in it for the long haul, and having bought many good shares at fair or bargain prices in the past and presently, I intend to hang onto to them.
My view is that they will move yet higher over time.
Sometimes, the massive and largely unprecedented increase in the share price of my stocks over a short period was not anticipated by me or probably by many others.
So, did I get lucky?  Well, yes and no.
It was my view that the share price of these companies would rise further or eventually recover from recent corrections, whilst the past is no way of accurately predicting the future, I felt that it would rise to around a certain price in the medium term.
The difference between my expectations and what happened is that I would have been happy for it to return to that price within five years.  As it happened, it did so in less than a few months.  ]

Know-it-alls have a lot to learn. You never know as much as you think you do.

One of the biggest dangers with investing is over-confidence or the addictive nature of doing well.

This is hard-wired into human beings.

It is all about maintaining a sense of perspective, and sometimes we need to remind ourselves that we should guard against over-confidence as much as risk aversion.

You never know as much as you think you do.

Always try and see things from a new or different perspective.  It can be quite developmental.

How is market value of common stock determined?

Market value is basically determined by investor expectations of future earnings and dividend payments, although the value of assets is also important.

Prices may also be affected temporarily by large transactions creating bid-offer imbalances, by rumours of various sorts, and by public tender offers.

How to Invest Your MONEY: 30 Key Personal Investment Opportunities

1. Annuity
2. Bond, Corporate (Interest Bearing)
3. Closed-End Fund
4. Collectibles 
5. Common Stock
6. Convertible Security
7. Exchange-Traded Funds
8. Foreign Stocks and Bonds
9. Futures Contract on a Commodity
10. Futures Contract on an Interest Rate
11. Futures Contract on a Stock Index
12. Government Agency Security
13. Life Insurance (Cash Value)
14. Money Market Fund
15. Mortgage-Backed (Pass-Through) Security
16. Municipal Security
17. Mutual Funds (Open End)
18. Option Contract (Put or Call)
19. Option Contract on a Futures Contract (Future Option)
20. Option Contract on an Interest Rate (Debt Option)
21. Option Contract on a Stock Index
22. Option Contract or Futures Contract on a Currency
23. Precious Metals
24. Preferred Stock (Nonconvertible)
25. Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT and FREIT)
26. Real Estate, Physical
27. Savings Alternatives
28. Treasury Securities (Bills, Bonds and Notes)
29. Unit Investment Trust
30. Zero-Coupon Security

"Money makes Money". Money can snowball.

You have an investment which you are now also getting a dividend yield of at least 7%, paid in regular instalments.  What do you do with the money after your tax has been paid?

What you don't do is withdraw it from your account and spend it.  You could do that, but that would be stupid because you can use dividend payments over time to start to accrue your wealth.  Over time, this can create a snowball effect as your wealth compounds.  Imagine getting to the point at which your dividend payments alone are becoming enough to make it worthwhile re-investing them alone, aside from anything you can top it up with yourself.

When you get to that stage, you will be on the verge of creating a self-sustaining money machine.  It is what is meant by the old phrase "money makes money".  In fact, it does.

Getting your money to work for you is indeed possible if you adopt some of the core principles of investing and apply them consistently and patiently over time.  The more time, the more money will compound. 

WHY NOT have a 100-year plan that would ensure that your children and grandchildren grow into very wealth people indeed.  Investing is a relay marathon, not a sprint. 

The more debt you take on, the higher the risk

The higher the net gearing figure, the riskier the investment becomes.  This is basically because debt has to be paid back no matter what happens to your sales.  Costs are generally more fixed, whilst income for most businesses is variable and can fluctuate wildly.  

For example, the manufacturer of high-end electronic consumer goods that is very heavily geared is likely to face a potentially serious problem in the event of a sudden economic downturn.  The debt, however, as a fixed cost, would remain.  This is how large numbers of businesses go under.

A business in the same sector with little or no debt and a healthy bank balance is far more likely to weather the economic storm.  Recessions are nothing new, they have happened before and will do so again.

Does any business really have an excuse for not being prepared for them?  



[So the world will almost certainly face further financial shocks and economic events that will surprise us, and whilst we can't say when it will happen or how exactly it will play out next time around, sometimes it really can feel like a little bit of history repeating as the stock market will continue to behave in both a rational and irrational manner without warning. 

That is why it is so important to think about the business, and not the share price or even what the market is really doing at all.]

Owning Your Own Business is easier than You Imagine

When you buy a share in a business, you become part-owner of that business and whether you are aware of it or not, everyone in that business from the most junior staff to the most senior is now working for you.
It is your job to remember this and to exercise your judgement in regard to the quality of the job they are doing.

You should not be silent bystanders in a business.  You have after all, parted with your hard-earned cash and invested in the enterprise and therefore you are now part-owner of all of its assets, profits and its future.  Get involved.  It is your money and your business.