Sunday, 19 January 2014

Top 100 Companies of KLSE 3.1.2014 (Sorted by P/E)

Top 100 Companies of KLSE 3.1.2014 (Sorted according to P/E)


Rank Company Price PE DY
68 BJLand 0.82 124.2 1.2
87 Shang 6.78 44.3 1.5
15 SKPetro 4.57 43.6 0
41 Dialog 3.4 42.1 1
13 PetDag 30.4 36.1 3.5
12 IHH 3.91 34.1 0
9 PetGas 23.6 33.2 2.1
28 Nestle 67.96 31.5 3.1
91 TSH 2.92 31.4 0.9
10 DiGi 4.85 31.3 5.4
61 GasMsia 3.95 31.2 3.2
32 Armada 4.08 31 0.7
84 Dayang 5.66 30.5 1.8
97 BJCorp 0.56 29.6 1.8
8 Maxis 7.13 28.9 5.6
96 Kseng 6.73 28.7 1.5
67 Bursa 8.13 28.5 3.3
18 KLK 24.12 28 2.1
69 IGBReit 1.2 26.6 1.5
33 Airport 8.8 26.5 1.5
95 HLCap 10 26.1 0
81 QL 4.1 25.9 1.1
47 F&N 18.4 25.7 3.3
42 GENP 10.98 25.5 1.1
92 Kossan 4.1 25.1 1.4
71 Tchong 5.98 24.7 2
73 KPJ 3.87 24.7 2
85 Dlady 47.3 24.5 5.5
53 MHB 3.61 23.9 2.8
90 IJMPlnt 3.48 23.3 2
75 LPI 17.46 23 3.7
24 BAT 63.88 22.9 4.3
4 Axiata 6.8 22.7 5.1
57 Harta 7.23 22.5 2
63 Aeon 13.64 22.5 1.8
23 PPB 15.92 22.4 1.3
36 UEMS 2.32 22.4 1.3
60 Orient 8.39 22.1 1
62 GAB 15.9 22.1 4.3
70 IGB 2.72 21.8 2.8
88 SOP 6.65 21.5 0.9
46 LAFMSIA 8.41 20.5 4.4
80 Bintulu Port 7.5 20.5 4
86 Pos 5.57 19.7 3.1
49 BIMB 4.38 19.5 2.6
76 Carlsbg 12.24 19.5 5.1
100 Zhulian 4.93 19.4 3.1
43 IJM 5.85 19.2 2.2
35 Gamuda 4.61 18.2 2.6
79 Top Glove 5.73 18.1 2.8
17 GENM 4.38 17.7 2
78 MSM 5.1 17.7 3.7
2 PBBank 18.9 17.1 2.6
39 Bkawan 19.6 16.8 2.8
45 SPSetia 2.95 16.5 3.7
74 IJMLand 2.52 16.4 2
99 CMSB 6.78 16 2.5
26 FGV 4.53 15.9 3.1
55 Utd Plant 26.18 15.9 4.8
7 Pchem 6.84 15.5 3.2
22 TM 5.39 15.3 4.1
6 Sime 9.39 15.2 3.6
30 UMW 12.28 15.1 4.1
50 HapSeng 2.95 15.1 3.6
14 IOICorp 4.58 14.9 3.4
52 Bstead 5.6 13.9 5.8
56 BJToto 4.01 13.8 7
1 Maybank 9.91 13.6 6.6
44 AFG 4.8 13.6 3.5
16 HLBank 14.24 13.5 3.2
89 Media 2.62 13.5 5
20 AMBank 7.29 13.4 3
29 Astro 2.98 13.4 1.3
3 Tenaga 11 13.3 2.3
65 Magnum 3.15 13.3 5.1
5 CIMB 7.51 12.9 3.1
83 Parkson 2.86 12.9 6.3
31 YTLPowr 1.85 12.5 0.5
25 YTL 1.6 12.4 1.6
27 HLFG 15.5 10.9 2.3
21 RHBCap 7.97 10.1 2.8
51 Affin 4.26 10.1 3.5
82 Mah Sing 2.27 9.9 2.7
94 CMMT 1.4 9.9 6
37 MMCCorp 2.85 9.4 1.6
11 Genting 10.08 9.3 0.8
59 DRBHCOM 2.72 9.1 2.2
77 SunReit 1.25 8.9 6.6
64 Sunway 2.75 7.7 1.9
93 UOADev 1.87 7.6 6.4
54 MBSB 2.17 6.8 13.3
72 PavReit 1.32 6.3 5.2
98 WCT 2.14 5.5 1.8
66 Kulim 3.38 5 29.1
48 AirAsia 2.37 3.5 10.1
19 MISC 5.51 0 0
34 KLCC 5.94 0 0
38 WPRTS 2.53 0 0
40 UMWOG 3.91 0 0
58 MAS 0.32 0 0
# Rank is based on market capitalization

Top 100 Companies of KLSE 3.1.2014 (Market P/E is 17.1 and DY is 3.2%)

Tuesday, 14 January 2014

Top 100 Companies of KLSE 3.1.2014 (Market P/E is 17.1 and DY is 3.2%)

TOP 100 COMPANIES (Market Price on January 3 (RM)

Rank Company Shares(m) Mkt price  Mkt Cap(m) PE DY PAT(m) Div(m)
1 Maybank 8862.30 9.91 87825.4 13.6 6.6 6457.8 5796.5
2 PBBank 3531.93 18.90 66753.4 17.1 2.6 3903.7 1735.6
3 Tenaga 5643.61 11.00 62079.7 13.3 2.3 4667.6 1427.8
4 Axiata 8540.63 6.80 58076.5 22.7 5.1 2558.4 2961.9
5 CIMB 7729.35 7.51 58047.4 12.9 3.1 4499.8 1799.5
6 Sime 6009.46 9.39 56428.9 15.2 3.6 3712.4 2031.4
7 Pchem 8000.00 6.84 54720.0 15.5 3.2 3530.3 1751.0
8 Maxis 7503.40 7.13 53499.2 28.9 5.6 1851.2 2996.0
9 PetGas 1978.73 23.60 46698.1 33.2 2.1 1406.6 980.7
10 DiGi 7775.00 4.85 37708.8 31.3 5.4 1204.8 2036.3
11 Genting 3719.48 10.08 37492.4 9.3 0.8 4031.4 299.9
12 IHH 8134.97 3.91 31807.7 34.1 0.0 932.8 0.0
13 PetDag 993.45 30.40 30201.0 36.1 3.5 836.6 1057.0
14 IOICorp 6444.29 4.58 29514.8 14.9 3.4 1980.9 1003.5
15 SKPetro 5992.16 4.57 27384.1 43.6 0.0 628.1 0.0
16 HLBank 1879.91 14.24 26769.9 13.5 3.2 1983.0 856.6
17 GENM 5937.48 4.38 26006.2 17.7 2.0 1469.3 520.1
18 KLK 1067.50 24.12 25748.2 28.0 2.1 919.6 540.7
19 MISC 4463.79 5.51 24595.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
20 AMBank 3014.18 7.29 21973.4 13.4 3.0 1639.8 659.2
21 RHBCap 2546.91 7.97 20298.9 10.1 2.8 2009.8 568.4
22 TM 3577.40 5.39 19282.2 15.3 4.1 1260.3 790.6
23 PPB 1185.50 15.92 18873.2 22.4 1.3 842.6 245.4
24 BAT 285.53 63.88 18239.7 22.9 4.3 796.5 784.3
25 YTL 10738.93 1.60 17182.3 12.4 1.6 1385.7 274.9
26 FGV 3648.15 4.53 16526.1 15.9 3.1 1039.4 512.3
27 HLFG 1052.77 15.50 16317.9 10.9 2.3 1497.1 375.3
28 Nestle 234.50 67.96 15936.6 31.5 3.1 505.9 494.0
29 Astro 5198.30 2.98 15490.9 13.4 1.3 1156.0 201.4
30 UMW 1168.29 12.28 14346.6 15.1 4.1 950.1 588.2
31 YTLPowr 7176.08 1.85 13275.7 12.5 0.5 1062.1 66.4
32 Armada 2931.59 4.08 11960.9 31.0 0.7 385.8 83.7
33 Airport 1232.44 8.80 10845.5 26.5 1.5 409.3 162.7
34 KLCC 1805.33 5.94 10723.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
35 Gamuda 2292.32 4.61 10567.6 18.2 2.6 580.6 274.8
36 UEMS 4537.44 2.32 10526.8 22.4 1.3 469.9 136.8
37 MMCCorp 3045.06 2.85 8678.4 9.4 1.6 923.2 138.9
38 WPRTS 3410.00 2.53 8627.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
39 Bkawan 435.95 19.60 8544.6 16.8 2.8 508.6 239.2
40 UMWOG 2162.00 3.91 8453.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
41 Dialog 2451.67 3.40 8335.7 42.1 1.0 198.0 83.4
42 GENP 758.85 10.98 8332.1 25.5 1.1 326.7 91.7
43 IJM 1413.59 5.85 8269.5 19.2 2.2 430.7 181.9
44 AFG 1548.10 4.80 7430.9 13.6 3.5 546.4 260.1
45 SPSetia 2458.71 2.95 7253.2 16.5 3.7 439.6 268.4
46 LAFMSIA 849.70 8.41 7145.9 20.5 4.4 348.6 314.4
47 F&N 365.16 18.40 6718.9 25.7 3.3 261.4 221.7
48 AirAsia 2781.03 2.37 6591.1 3.5 10.1 1883.2 665.7
49 BIMB 1493.51 4.38 6541.6 19.5 2.6 335.5 170.1
50 HapSeng 2205.00 2.95 6504.8 15.1 3.6 430.8 234.2
51 Affin 1494.58 4.26 6366.9 10.1 3.5 630.4 222.8
52 Bstead 1034.18 5.60 5791.4 13.9 5.8 416.6 335.9
53 MHB 1600.00 3.61 5776.0 23.9 2.8 241.7 161.7
54 MBSB 2621.80 2.17 5689.3 6.8 13.3 836.7 756.7
55 Utd Plant 208.13 26.18 5448.9 15.9 4.8 342.7 261.5
56 BJToto 1351.03 4.01 5417.6 13.8 7.0 392.6 379.2
57 Harta 745.64 7.23 5391.0 22.5 2.0 239.6 107.8
58 MAS 16710.78 0.32 5347.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
59 DRBHCOM 1933.24 2.72 5258.4 9.1 2.2 577.8 115.7
60 Orient 620.39 8.39 5205.1 22.1 1.0 235.5 52.1
61 GasMsia 1284.00 3.95 5071.8 31.2 3.2 162.6 162.3
62 GAB 302.10 15.90 4803.4 22.1 4.3 217.3 206.5
63 Aeon 351.00 13.64 4787.6 22.5 1.8 212.8 86.2
64 Sunway 1723.52 2.75 4739.7 7.7 1.9 615.5 90.1
65 Magnum 1437.75 3.15 4528.9 13.3 5.1 340.5 231.0
66 Kulim 1294.05 3.38 4373.9 5.0 29.1 874.8 1272.8
67 Bursa 532.61 8.13 4330.1 28.5 3.3 151.9 142.9
68 BJLand 5024.37 0.82 4120.0 124.2 1.2 33.2 49.4
69 IGBReit 3422.62 1.20 4107.1 26.6 1.5 154.4 61.6
70 IGB 1490.30 2.72 4053.6 21.8 2.8 185.9 113.5
71 Tchong 672.00 5.98 4018.6 24.7 2.0 162.7 80.4
72 PavReit 3009.68 1.32 3972.8 6.3 5.2 630.6 206.6
73 KPJ 1025.59 3.87 3969.0 24.7 2.0 160.7 79.4
74 IJMLand 1558.85 2.52 3928.3 16.4 2.0 239.5 78.6
75 LPI 221.32 17.46 3864.3 23.0 3.7 168.0 143.0
76 Carlsbg 308.08 12.24 3770.9 19.5 5.1 193.4 192.3
77 SunReit 2923.69 1.25 3654.6 8.9 6.6 410.6 241.2
78 MSM 702.98 5.10 3585.2 17.7 3.7 202.6 132.7
79 Top Glove 620.53 5.73 3555.6 18.1 2.8 196.4 99.6
80 Bintulu Port 460.00 7.50 3450.0 20.5 4.0 168.3 138.0
81 QL 832.02 4.10 3411.3 25.9 1.1 131.7 37.5
82 Mah Sing 1413.61 2.27 3208.9 9.9 2.7 324.1 86.6
83 Parkson 1093.90 2.86 3128.6 12.9 6.3 242.5 197.1
84 Dayang 550.00 5.66 3113.0 30.5 1.8 102.1 56.0
85 Dlady 64.00 47.30 3027.2 24.5 5.5 123.6 166.5
86 Pos 537.03 5.57 2991.2 19.7 3.1 151.8 92.7
87 Shang 440.00 6.78 2983.2 44.3 1.5 67.3 44.7
88 SOP 438.20 6.65 2914.1 21.5 0.9 135.5 26.2
89 Media 1100.46 2.62 2883.2 13.5 5.0 213.6 144.2
90 IJMPlnt 802.23 3.48 2791.8 23.3 2.0 119.8 55.8
91 TSH 903.83 2.92 2639.2 31.4 0.9 84.1 23.8
92 Kossan 639.47 4.10 2621.8 25.1 1.4 104.5 36.7
93 UOADev 1339.78 1.87 2505.4 7.6 6.4 329.7 160.3
94 CMMT 1772.82 1.40 2481.9 9.9 6.0 250.7 148.9
95 HLCap 246.90 10.00 2469.0 26.1 0.0 94.6 0.0
96 Kseng 362.09 6.73 2436.9 28.7 1.5 84.9 36.6
97 BJCorp 4299.56 0.56 2407.8 29.6 1.8 81.3 43.3
98 WCT 1092.46 2.14 2337.9 5.5 1.8 425.1 42.1
99 CMSB 339.70 6.78 2303.2 16.0 2.5 144.0 57.6
100 Zhulian 460.00 4.93 2267.8 19.4 3.1 116.9 70.3


1 billion = 1000m






Total Market
Cap (RM m)
1,404,453.40
1,404.5  billion

Total Market Earnings (m)
81,920.85
81.9 billion

Total Market Dividends (m)
44,611.00
44.6 billion

Market PE 17.1
Market DY 3.2%
Market Earnings Yield 5.8%


My thanks to Amy for the hard work.













Monday, 13 January 2014

Asking the ONE most important question: How much cash can be generated from the business?

Asking the ONE most important question: How much cash can be generated from the business?

If a businessperson is asked about what goes into consideration when purchasing a business, the number one answer should be:

How much cash can be generated from the business?


Other answers, though important, are of secondary importance, such as:

What is the business worth?
Who is the biggest competitor?
What is motivating the seller of the business?


Therefore, the businessperson when purchasing a business should examine the business aspects of his investments.  This involves looking at:

1.  the income statements
2.  the capital reinvestment requirements, and
3.  the cash generating capabilities of the business or investments.

The only 2 classes that an investment student needs to take

Buffett believes that investment students need only two well-taught classes:

1.  How to Value a Business?

2.  How to Think about Market Prices?


Return on Equity (ROE) - the financial metric that investors should use to judge a company's annual performance

Buffett considers earning per share a smoke screen.

Most companies will retain a portion of their previous year's earnings as a way to increase their equity base.

Warren Buffett believes there is nothing spectacular about a company that increases earning per share by 10% if, at the same time, the company is growing its equity base by 10%.

He says this is no different than putting money in a savings account and letting the interest accumulate and compound.

Buffett prefers return on equity to earnings per share when analyzing a company.

He will make appropriate adjustments to the reported earnings to give a clear picture of how returns were generated as a return on business operations.

Buffett believes a business should achieve good return on equity while employing little or no debt.

Most investors judge annual performance by focusing on earnings per share.

According to Buffett, the proper way to judge a company's performance is though focusing on return on equity.

Return on equity is a better measure of annual performance because it takes into consideration a company's growing capital base.

Buffett uses ROE as his preferred financial metric to judge a company's annual performance; investors should do likewise.

Sunday, 12 January 2014

The question of how to allocate profits is linked to where a company is in its life cycle




One of the most important decisions management makes is how to allocate profits.

The decision of what to do with earnings is linked to where a company is in its life cycle.

The question of how to allocate profits is linked to where a company is in its life cycle.

1.  Development Stage

In the development stage, a company loses money as it develops products and establishes markets.

2.  Rapid Growth Stage.

The next stage would be rapid growth, in which a company is profitable but growing so fast that it may need to retain all earnings and also borrow funds or issue equity to finance this growth.

3.  Maturity and Decline

In later stages, maturity and decline, a company will continue to generate excess cash, and the best use of this cash may be allocating it to shareholders.

My equity bond (Nestle)

Nestle Malaysia

Latest after-tax ttm-EPS is $2.39 per share

Nestle's underlying earnings are so consistent.

And Nestle is growing its earnings at about 8% per year.

A company with a durable competitive advantage, over time, the stock market will price the company's equity bonds or shares at a level that reflects the value of its earnings relative to the yield on long-term risk free interest rate.

Capitalized at the risk free interest rate of 3.5%, Nestle's after-tax earning of $2.39 per share is worth approximately $68.30 per equity bond/share.  ($2.39/3.5% = $68.30).


Here is a difference worth noting. 

Nestle is worth $68.30 per share  and it is trading today at around $68.00.  Therefore, for the Graham-based value investors, who wants to buy only at $40 per share, Nestle is not "undervalued"

But for those who are willing to apply their reasoning or thinking cap, just take a look at this scenario.

1.  You are being offered a relatively risk-free initial after-tax rate of return of 3.5% today when you buy at $68.30 sen per share.

2.  This after-tax rate of return is expected to increase over the next 20 years at an annual rate of approximately 8% per year.

3.  Then ask this question:  Is this an attractive investment given the rate of risk and return on other investments?

4.  What other attractive investment give the rate of risk and return of this nature?




I bought a long time ago at $10.20 per share

Thus, Nestle is my equity bond or share that is currently giving an after-tax yield of 23.4% ($2.39 / $10.20 = 23.4%) that is relatively risk-free and which is expected to increase over the next 20 years at an annual rate of approximately 8%. 



Wednesday, 8 January 2014

The Great, Good and Gruesome Businesses of Buffett

Buy good quality companies with durable competitive advantage and trustworthy managers and holding them for the long term. Just buy them at fair or bargain prices and never at high prices.

"It is better to own the great companies at good prices, than the good companies at great prices."

Here is a nice table summarizing the great, good and gruesome companies according to Buffett.


























Let me give you some pointers:

1. Select a small cap stock.

2. The one that you have the confidence that it will grow its revenues and earnings for many many years to come.

3. The one with some durable competitive advantage (it can be difficult in early years to notice or identify this).

4. Get into this early.

5. Continue to monitor its performance.










Yes, you can hold for the long term too.

For this you need to assess its quality (both qualitative and quantitative, and the management).

Don't be too focus on the price of the shares (the least important in your assessment).

Sunday, 5 January 2014

The Magic of Compounding - Buffett's story

Wealth takes time.

Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett's investing partner, put it best: "You don't have to be brilliant, only a little bit wiser than the other guys, on average, for a long, long time."
 
Warren Buffett is a great investor, but what makes him rich is that he's been a great investor for seven decades. Of his current $60 billion net worth, $59.7 billion was added after his 50th birthday, and $57 billion came after his 60th. If Buffett started saving in his 30s and retired in his 60s, you would have never heard of him. His skill is investing, but his secret is time.
 
Understanding the value of time is the most important lesson in all of finance. The single best thing we can do to improve the financial state of Americans is encourage people to save from as early an age as possible.





Buffett's wealth

For this discussion:  1 billion = 1,000 million.

He was born on 30th August 1930.

2014  Age 83  - $60 billion net worth

1990  Age 60 -  $ 3 billion net worth.

1980  Age 50 -  $0.3 billion or $300 million net worth



1980 - 1990
CAGR 25.89% over 10 years


1990 - 2014
CAGR 13.29% over 24 years




A billion is equal to how many million?

Answer:
In the 'short scale' a billion is 1000 million. The short scale is the system officially used in the USA, the UK and most English-speaking countries. 

In the 'long scale' it is a million million. More or less the rest of the world supposedly uses this terminology.

One million (1,000,000) or one thousand thousand.
One billion (1,000,000,000) or one million thousand.    

1. The cardinal number equal to 109.
2. Chiefly British The cardinal number equal to 1012

.http://wiki.answers.com/Q/A_billion_is_equal_to_how_many_million

Wednesday, 25 December 2013

The Most Successful Dividend Investors of all time

Dividend investing is as sexy as watching paint dry on the wall. Defining an entry criteria that selects quality dividend stocks with rising dividends over time and then patiently reinvesting these dividends while sitting on your hands is not exciting. While active traders have a plethora of hedge fund managers on the covers of Forbes magazine there are not many well-publicized successful dividend investors. Even value investing has its own superstars – Ben Graham and Warren Buffett.


I did some research and uncovered several successful dividend investors, whose stories provide reassurance that the traits of successful dividend investing I outlined in a previous post are indeed accurate.

The first investor is Anne Scheiber, who turned a $5,000 investment in 1944 into $22 million by the time of her death at the age of 101 in 1995. Anne Scheiber worked as an IRS auditor for 23 years, never earning more than $3150/year. The one important lesson she learned auditing tax returns was that the surest way to become rich in America is by accumulating stocks. She accumulated stocks in brand name companies she understood and then reinvested dividends for decades. She never sold, in order to avoid paying taxes and commissions. She also never sold even during the 1972-1974 bear market as well as the 1987 market crash because she had high conviction in her stocks picks. She also held a diversified portfolio of almost 100 individual securities in brand names such as Coca-Cola (KO), PepsiCo (PEP), Bristol-Myers (BMY), Schering Plough (acquired by Pfizer in 2009). She read annual reports with the same inquisitive mind she audited tax returns during her tenure at the IRS and also attended annual shareholders meetings. Anne Scheiber did her own research on stocks, and was focusing her attention on strong franchises which have the opportunity to increase earnings and pay higher dividends over time.

In her later years she reinvested her dividends into tax free municipal bonds, which is why her portfolio had a 30% allocation to fixed income at the time of her death. At the time of her death, her portfolio was throwing off $750,000 in dividend and interest income annually. She donated her whole fortune to Yeshiva University, even though she never attended it herself.

The second investor is Grace Groner, who turned a small $180 investment in 1935 into $7 million by the time of her death in 2010. Ms Groner, who worked as a secretary at Abbott Laboratories for 43 years invested $180 in 3 shares of Abbott Laboratories (ABT) in 1935. She then simply reinvested the dividends for the next 75 years. She never sold, but just held on to her shares.

She was frugal, having grown up in the depression era, and was the classical millionaire next door type of person who was not interested in keeping up with the Joneses. Grace Groner left her entire fortune to her Alma Mater. Her $7 million donation is generating approximately $250,000 in annual dividend income.

The reason why dividend investors are not highly publicized is because dividend investing is not sexy enough to be featured in the financial mainstream media. In addition to that, it is not profitable for Wall Street to sell you into the idea that ordinary investors can invest on their own. Compare this to mutual funds, annuities and other products which generate billions in commissions for Wall Street, despite the fact that they might not be in the best interest of small investors.

The third dividend investor is Warren Buffett, the Oracle of Omaha himself. In a previous article I have outlined the reasoning behind my belief that Buffett is a closet dividend investor. He explicitly noted in his 2009 letter that "the best businesses by far for owners continue to be those that have high returns on capital and that require little incremental investment to grow". His investment in See's Candy is the best example of that.

Some of Buffett's best companies/stock that he has owned such as Geico, Coca Cola , See's Candy are exactly the types of investments mentioned above. He has mentioned that at Berkshire he tries to stick with businesses whose profit picture for decades to come seems reasonably predictable. Per Buffett the best businesses by far for owners continue to be those that have high returns on capital and that require little incremental investment to grow. In addition, his 2011 letter discussed his dividend income from all of Berkshire Hathaway investments, including his prediction that Coca Cola dividends will keep on increasing, based on the pattern of historical dividend increases.

In this article I outlined three dividend investors, who managed to turn small investments into cash machines that generated large amounts of dividends. They were able to accomplish this through identifying quality dividend growth companies at attractive valuations, patiently reinvesting distributions and in two out of three cases maintaining a diversified portfolio of stocks. These are the lessons that all investors could profit from.

http://www.dividendgrowthinvestor.com/2012/06/most-successful-dividend-investors-of.html