Walter Schloss remarked on Warren Buffett

Walter Schloss observed that Buffett's advantage is in that he is not afraid of the downside.  (Schloss, 1998)

The Lessons a CEO wish he knew when he was 21.

WHAT I WISH I KNEW AT 21

It was more years ago than I’d care to admit, but I vividly remember being 21 years of age.

Beneath a headstrong facade hid a perplexed kid, riddled with nerves about succeeding on the professional road that lay ahead. I concealed these feelings of uncertainty because I thought that’s what would impress an employer: an uber-confident young talent with an unmistakable hunger to get ahead. Surely they would respond well to someone who was outspoken, bold and unmistakably ambitious.

Upon entering the full-time workforce I applied this attitude in droves. While I thought I was doing the right thing, unbeknown to me I was damaging my reputation. It started to become apparent that my colleagues perceived me as somewhat arrogant, closed minded, and difficult to work with.

My career advancement was limping rather than sprinting. I’d watch peers receive promotions while I hovered in the same position, brimming with resentment.

Rationalising it was just a simple case of not finding the right job, an environment that would finally let me shine, I propelled myself down a path of short-term stints in various organisations, becoming increasingly disillusioned every time I job-hopped; where was this professional utopia? It took me a few years to realise that utopia doesn’t exist. It wasn’t the particular organisation, culture or people that were clamping my progress; it was my misguided attitude. My professional disappointments were no one else’s fault but my own. Coming to terms with that wasn’t easy, but ultimately, and thankfully, I did.

Today, I am a CEO. My many missteps as a young professional are a chief reason why I spend a significant amount of my time mentoring young people throughout Australia and abroad. I want to help them avoid making the same mistakes that I did.

During these mentoring sessions I am always reminded of my fledgling missteps, and what I wish I’d known as a young professional. If I were to have a mentoring session with my 21 year old self, here’s what I would I tell that bull-headed young person:

KNOW YOUR IMPACT

Self-awareness in business is paramount. Not identifying or understanding the impact your behaviour has on others is a professional pitfall and will limit your progress. Observe how people respond to you. What is their body language like when you speak or enter a room? If it’s noticeably negative, is there anything you should be doing differently?

This is not about changing who you are as a person: it’s about finding better ways to relate and work with your colleagues. Taking the time to listen, observe, see things from someone else’s point of view is essential to knowing your impact and building solid relationships.

FOCUS ON THE MOMENT

Ambition is great. Blind ambition is not. Constantly focusing on reaching the next level of your career will detract from your responsibilities and relationships at hand. One of the biggest annoyances for any manager is an employee who expects more responsibility before they’ve mastered in their current role. Master your current role and you will be invited to the next level much quicker.

BE GRACIOUS IN DEFEAT

When people are promoted ahead of you don’t let it unsettle you. Jealousy is never, ever, a good look. Believe me, managers are always observing how their employees respond to unfavourable situations. Remaining positive in these situations, using them as motivation to work harder, will be recognised and respected by your superiors.

YOU’RE NOT KIDDING ANYONE

Employers know you’re inexperienced. They know you’re likely anxious about your first foray into professional life. And they know that you want to impress. Their expectations of you won’t be that high for those very reasons, so avoid trying to look like you know all the answers, because they know you don’t.

The first job is about listening, observing and fulfilling requests to the best of your ability. You’re laying the foundation for bigger things — don’t be impatient.

Don’t forget:

- Understand the impact your behaviour has on others and respond accordingly.

- Focus on doing your current role well and your manager will take notice.

- Don’t be jealous when a colleague is promoted ahead of you, rather use it as motivation to work harder and improve.

- Employees don’t expect you to know everything – so don’t pretend you do.


This article first ran on news.com.au:

http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/what-i-wish-i-knew-at-21/story-fnkgbb6w-1227267011567

Patience - the key to successful stock market investment.

The hardest thing to learn is not the complicated technical analysis formulas that one can be found in textbooks. It is the empirical formula called patience. It is the key to successful stock market investment. Without it even one has the sharpest mind of great stock pick will not yield desirable and consistent results.

I have read countless great textbooks, technical and non-technical, throughout my investing life and in the end, I came to realise that the very one thing that many people lack of in stock investment is patience. It took me years to understand and appreciate this. That is why i always stressed one must have patience, persevere, trust and conviction in stock investment. Yes. Each of this word is about human behaviour. Master it and only then talk about fundamental analysis, technical analysis, stock pick and timing. Case in point, how many would have patiently hold on to Presbhd long enough to achieve extreme profit from it ? It doesn't matter if you have held onto a stock for very long time despite making less paper profit, but the patience that you have developed subconsciously within you to keep that stock is already a good start. 

By the way, the worst enemy of patience is distraction. Think about it.

Good luck.



http://unclezmalaysia.blogspot.my/2015/03/are-you-doing-investment-in-stock-market.html

I have learned mainly by reading myself.

Buffett: "I have learned mainly by reading myself. So I don’t think I have any original ideas. Certainly, I talk about reading Graham. I’ve read Phil Fisher. So I’ve gotten a lot of my ideas from reading. You can learn a lot from other people. In fact, I think if you learn basically from other people, you don’t have to get too many new ideas on your own. You can just apply the best of what you see.”

"ORIGINALITY is overrated. I believe in the discipline of mastering the best that other people have figured out. I don’t believe in just sitting down and trying to dream it all up yourself. Nobody’s that smart." Charlie Munger

"What’s really astounding, is how resistant some people are to learning anything … even when it’s in their self-interest to learn. There is just an incredible resistance to thinking or changing. Bertrand Russell once said: ‘Most men would rather die than think. Many have.’ And in a financial sense, that’s very true." Warren Buffett.

Charlie Munger Fan Club

International Business Machines

International Business Machines

IBM (NYSE)

Website: www.ibm.com

Sector:  Information Technology
Beta Coefficient: 0.63
10 Yr Compound EPS Growth:  13.0%
10 Yr Compound DPS Growth: 19.5%

Dividend raises, past 10 years: 10 times.


Financial Result Year 2014

Revenues (b)     92.8
Net Income (b)   15.7
EPS  15.59
DPS   4.25
Cash flow per share 20.44

Current yield 2.7%

High Price  199.2  P/E 12.8    DY 2.1%
Low Price   150.5  P/E  9.7     DY 2.8%

IBM historically has made a broad range of computers, mainframes, and network servers.  

But the company has morphed over the years into a software and services company.

As a consequence, fewer folks than ever talk about an "IBM computer" anymore; they talk about an "IBM business solution" or some such.

IBM is divided into four principal business units and a financing unit:

• The Global Technology Services unit:  This is the largest, at 38% of revenues.
• The Global Business Services unit (18%)
• The Software unit (32%).
• The Systems and Technology group (10%)
• The Financing Unit (2%) helps the company market it all.

Overseas sales make up about 55% of revenues.

The company has kept "strategic" large systems but little else; it is now offering cloud-based and integrated hardware/software/service solutions for diverse needs such as business analytics and data security.

It recently invested $4 billion in "new" core strategic areas in cloud and mobile computing, analytics and information security.

It is buying up its own stock, almost 6% of its float last year.

Its business mix is shifting from less profitable hardware to more profitable services, first came consulting, then outsourcing and now, leading-edge analytics, security and cloud services.

Health Care REIT

Health Care REIT, Inc.

HCN (NYSE)

Website: www.hcreit.com

Sector:  Health Care
Beta Coefficient: 0.43
10 Yr Compound EPS Growth:  20.5%
10 Yr Compound DPS Growth: 2.5%

Dividend raises, past 10 years: 10 times.


Financial Result Year 2014

Revenues (m)     3,344
Net Income (m)    505.0
Funds from operations per share  4.13
Real Estate owned per share 69.5

DPS 3.18
Current yield 4.4%

High Price  78.2      DY 4.07%
Low Price   52.9     DY 6.01%

This is a large REIT, paying yield exceeding 5 percent.

It invests primarily in senior living and medical care properties primarily in the U.S.  

The REIT owns and/or operates some 1,328 properties in three countries and operates assisted living, skilled nursing, independent-living and the medical centers.

Health Care REIT operates in three primary business segments:

• Seniors Housing "triplet-net" segment:  primarily owning senior housing properties.  This segment owns 666 properties, most in the US and contributes 33% of revenues.
• Seniors Housing Operating segment which operates 202 properties in 34 states, 54 in Canada and 41 in UK and contributes about 43% of revenues.  This is the fastest-growing segment.
• Medical Facilities which operates office space set in 241 facilities for medical purposes, inpatient and outpatient medical centers and life science laboratories, contributing about 14% to revenues.

Occupancy rates are 87.7% in the Seniors Housing triple-net segment, 90.3% in the Seniors Housing Operating, and 94.4% in the Medical Facilities segment.

In 2014 and early 2015, the company made two medium-sized common stock sales, which hurt the stock price temporarily but also funded the acquisition of $3.7 billion in new real estate investments.

The company added a modest number of shares again in 2015 to fund acquisitions and to approach a goal of 60% equity.

REITS are typically good income producers, as they are required by law to pay a substantial portion of their cash flow to investors.

The accounting rules are different, and REIT investors should focus on Funds From Operations (FFO), which is analogous to operating income.

(Net income figures have depreciation expense deducted, which can vary in timing and not always be realistic.)

FFO support the dividends paid to investors.

Investing in such a REIT, you are investing in real estate and in the health-care industry, and with the property mix owned by Health Care REIT, you are investing in the aging population.

HCN (NYSE)

The FED raises interest rate by 0.25%.

After 7 years of near zero interest rate, the Fed raises interest rate by 0.25% from 0.25% to 0.5%.

Reasons given for raising interest rate today are:

• GDP growing at 2% to 2.5% sustainably for some time.
• Employment has dropped from 10% to 5%.
• Inflation is still below the 2% target at 1.3%, but the Fed wants to be ahead of the curve.

To understand the action of the Fed better, watch this very instructive video on the yield curve.


What is a yield curve?
https://youtu.be/mXiwY_e4nC0?list=PLD3EB06EC4A19BFB8


For those who wish to understand the Fed better, watch this video.

What is the FED?
https://youtu.be/2QGqXeDOkIU?list=PLECECA66C0CE68B1E


US economy has improved.  Consumer spending, autocar buying and housing sector activities are up.  Wages have not risen much so far.



Read also this very good post:
http://unclezmalaysia.blogspot.my/2015/12/300pm-ny-time-wednesday-16-december-2015.html#comment-form

Johnson & Johnson

Johnson & Johnson

JNJ (NYSE)

Website: www.jnj.com

Sector:  Health Care
Beta Coefficient: 0.5
10 Yr Compound EPS Growth:  8.5%
10 Yr Compound DPS Growth: 11.5%

Dividend raises, past 10 years: 10 times.


Financial Result Year 2014

Revenues (m)     74,311
Net Income (m)   17,105
EPS  5.97
DPS 2.76
Cash flow per share 7.90

Current yield 2.8%

High Price  106.5  P/E 17.8    DY 2.59%
Low Price     96.1  P/E 16.1    DY 2.87%

The company has three reporting segments:

Consumer Health Care ($145 billion in FY2014 sales)

Medical Devices and Diagnostics ($27.5 billion), and 

Pharmaceuticals ($32.3 billion).

J&J has more than 250 operating companies in 60 countries, selling some 50,000 products in more than 175 countries.

The company is fairly active with acquisitions, acquiring small niche players to strengthen its overall product offering.

J&J continues to own a dominant and stable franchise in a secure and lucrative industry.

Persistent and moderate share buybacks and dividend increases gave shareholders their fair share of the profitability of its business.

The company expects to resume a mid-single digits growth pace for both revenues and earnings in FY 2016, with corresponding benefits paid to shareholders.

J&J's steady earnings and cash flow combined with a healthy dividend and share repurchases provide gratifying total shareholder returns.

The P/E has expanded from 14 - 15 to the 16 - 17 range, adding a bit of downside risk.

Apple Inc.

Apple Inc.

AAPL (NASDAQ)

Website: www.apple.com

Sector:  Consumer Discretionary
Beta Coefficient: 0.84
10 Yr Compound EPS Growth:  70.5%
10 Yr Compound DPS Growth   NM

Dividend raises, past 10 years: 3 times.


Financial Result Year 2014

Revenues (b)    182.8
Net Income (b)     39.5
EPS  6.45
DPS 1.82
Cash flow per share 8.09
Current yield 1.5%

High Price  119.8  P/E 18.5    DY 1.52%
Low Price     70.5  P/E 10.9   DY 2.58%


The company designs, manufactures and markets personal computers, tablet computers, portable music players, cell phones and related software, peripherals, downloadable content and services.  

It added the digital watch to its portfolio in mid-2015.

It sells these products through its own retail stores, online stores, and third-party and value-added resellers.

The company sells digital content through its iTunes stores.

It has become a big player in the "digital wallet" mobile payment space, with its Apple Pay apps and network.  

The company is rumoured to be considering a move into the automobile business.

The company's products have become household names:  iPhone, iPod, iPad, MacBook, iTunes, QuickTime, OSX and iCloud.  

Steve Job, who passed away in October 2011,  was clearly the driving and leading force in Apple's innovation, style and success.

The current CEO is Tim Cook.

The company recently split its shares a massive seven for one, and has, in part due to shareholder activist pressures, stepped up its cash returns to shareholders.

It is rumoured the company is planning up to a cumulative $200 billion to be delivered in the form of dividends and share buybacks by the end of 2018.

Investors can expect dividend increases and especially share buybacks to continue large, with about 100 million shares retired each year on a 5.8 billion share base.

The company has already retired about 13% of its shares since FY 2012.

Apple's ability to generate income and now, to distribute it to shareholders is admirable.

The Coca-Cola Company

The Coca-Cola Company

KO (NYSE)

Website:  www.coca-cola.com

Sector:  Consumer Staples
Beta Coefficient: 0.49
10 Yr Compound EPS Growth:  8%
10 Yr Compound DPS Growth   9.5%

Dividend raises, last 10 years: 10 times.


Financial Result Year 2014

Revenues (m)   45,998
Net Income (m)   9,091
EPS  2.04
DPS 1.22
Cash flow per share 2.53
Current yield 3.2%

High Price  45.0  P/E 22.1   DY 2.71%
Low Price  36.9  P/E 18.1   DY  3.31%


The Coca-Cola Company is the world's largest beverage company.  

For more than 100 years, the company has mainly produced concentrates and syrups, which it then bottles or cans itself or sells to independent bottlers worldwide.  

It took a big step to own the supply chain in 2010 with the acquisition of bottler Coca-Cola Enterprises" North Amercian operations; CCE still handles distribution for Europe.

Independent bottlers add water ingredients, then bottle and distribute the products to restaurants, retailers and other distributors.  

The company owns the brand and is responsible for consumer brand marketing initiatives, while the distributors handle all downstream merchandising.

The company operates in more than 200 countries and markets nearly 500 brands of concentrate and finished beverages.

In terms of unit case volume, 79% of all sales are overseas - 29% in Latin America, 15% in Eurasia/Africa, 21% in the Pacific and 14% in Europe.

In terms of revenues, the company counts about 57% as overseas sales.

With $18 billion in cash in hand, Coke has made many strategic acquisitions.  Coke has the means.

Cash returns to investors are decent on both the buyback and dividend front, with high single-digit to 10% dividend raises the norm, even with flat performance.

For a company this size, it still make 20% net profit margin.  

Warren Buffett said he'll never sell a single one of the 400 million shares of Coke stock he owns.  "I like to bet on sure things."

Coke has category leadership, especially, in soft drinks, juices and juice drinks, and ready to drink coffees and teas.

They are number two globally in sports drinks and number three in packaged water and energy drinks.  

In Coca Cola, Diet Coke, Sprite and Fanta, they own four of the top five brands of soft drink in the world.

The Coca Cola name is probably the most recognized brand in the world and is almost beyond valuation.

The company have raised dividends in each of the past 53 years, and returned some $8.5 billion out of $10.5 billion in cash generated to shareholders in 2013.

Dividend raises, last 10 years: 10 times.

It is also a pure play on international business as you will find in a US company.

The low beta of 0.49 continues to confirm its low-volatility credentials.

This is a slow, steady growth story, which may be too slow for many, with new risks the company didn't face when Mr. Buffett bought in years ago.

Becton, Dickinson and Company

Becton, Dickinson and Company
BDX(NYSE)

Sector:  Health Care
Beta Coefficient: 0.87
10 Yr Compound EPS Growth:  11.5%
10 Yr Compound DPS Growth 16.5%


Financial Result Year 2014

Revenues (m)   8,446
Net Income (m)  1,236
EPS  6.25
DPS 2.18
Cash flow per share 9.37
Current yield 1.7%

High Price  142.6  P/E 22.8   DY 1.53%
Low Price  105.2  P/E 16.8   DY  2.07%


Becton Dickinson is one of the premier medical supply and technology companies on the planet.

Becton Dickinson is a global health care company .  The company develops, manufactures, and sells medical supplies, devices, laboratory instruments, antibodies, reagents, and diagnostic products through its three segments:

BD Medical  (54% of FY 2014 sales)
BD Diagnostics (14%)
and
BD Biosciences. (32%)


International sales account for about 59% of the total.

In mid-2014, the company announced the acquisition of CareFusion, a global provider of automated tools and systems designed to reduce patient medication errors and to prevent care-associated infections.

With the acquisition, while accretive, CareFusion may appear to dilute BD;s strong profit margins (NPM for BD is about 15% while CareFusion is about 11%), but it is anticipated synergies and growth to be a net positive.

Its dividend increases are not only steady but large, typically 10% per year, and the company plans to continue that pattern.  Dividend raises, last 10 years: 10 times.

When to sell? Sell when there is something else better to buy.

When should you sell?

Answer: Sell when there is something else better to buy.

Something else better for future returns.

Something else better for safety.

Something else better for timeliness or fit with today's go-forward worldview; a megatrend.



What is that something else? 

It can be:

- another stock
- an index fund
- a house
- or any kind of investment

It can also be cash. 

Sell that stock when .... when what? When cash is a better investment. Or when you need the money, which is another way of saying that cash is a better investment - at least it is safer for the time being.



Best possible deployment of your capital

If you think of a buy decision as a best possible deployment of capital because there is no better way to invest your money, you will also come out ahead.

It really is not hard, especially if you have done your homework.

And it is also made easier if you avoid rash overcommitments; that is, you avoid buying all at once in case you have made a mistake or in case better prices come later down the road.



Buy and hold quality companies for the long haul, and you will likely be handsomely rewarded for that patience.

Invest regularly.

"20-Slot Rule" - This tip from Warren Buffett will help you be more successful at work and in life

STRATEGY

JAMES CLEAR STRATEGY JUL. 21, 2015


Charlie Munger settled into his seat in front of the crowd at the University of Southern California.

It was 1994 and Munger had spent the last 20 years working alongside Warren Buffett as the two men grew Berkshire Hathaway into a billion-dollar corporation.

Today, Munger was delivering a talk to the USC Business School entitled, “A Lesson on Elementary Worldly Wisdom.”

About halfway through his presentation, hidden among many fantastic lessons, Munger discussed a strategy that Warren Buffett had used with great success throughout his career.

Here it is:

When Warren lectures at business schools, he says, “I could improve your ultimate financial welfare by giving you a ticket with only 20 slots in it so that you had 20 punches — representing all the investments that you got to make in a lifetime. And once you’d punched through the card, you couldn’t make any more investments at all.”

He says, “Under those rules, you’d really think carefully about what you did and you’d be forced to load up on what you’d really thought about. So you’d do so much better.”

Again, this is a concept that seems perfectly obvious to me. And to Warren it seems perfectly obvious. But this is one of the very few business classes in the U.S. where anybody will be saying so. It just isn’t the conventional wisdom.

To me, it’s obvious that the winner has to bet very selectively. It’s been obvious to me since very early in life. I don’t know why it’s not obvious to very many other people.

The Underrated Importance of Selective Focus

Warren Buffett’s “20-Slot” Rule isn’t just useful for financial investments, it’s a sound approach for time investments as well. In particular, what struck me about Buffett’s strategy was his idea of “forcing yourself to load up” and go all in on an investment.

The key point is this:

Your odds of success improve when you are forced to direct all of your energy and attention to fewer tasks.

If you want to master a skill — truly master it — you have to be selective with your time. You have to ruthlessly trim away good ideas to make room for great ones. You have to focus on a few essential tasks and ignore the distractions. You have to commit to working through 10 years of silence.

Going All In

If you take a look around, you’ll notice very few people actually go “all in” on a single skill or goal for an extended period of time.

Rather than researching carefully and pouring themselves into a goal for a year or two, most people “dip their toes in the water” and chase a new diet, a new college major, a new exercise routine, a new side business idea, or a new career path for a few weeks or months before jumping onto the next new thing.

In my experience, so few people display the persistence to practice one thing for an extended period of time that you can actually become very good in many areas — maybe even world-class — with just one year of focused work. If you view your life as a 20-slot punchcard and each slot is a period of focused work for a year or two, then you can see how you can enjoy significant returns on your invested time simply by going all in on a few things.

My point here is that everyone is holding a “life punchcard” and, if we are considering how many things we can master in a lifetime, there aren’t many slots on that card. You only get so many punches during your time on this little planet. Unlike financial investments, your 20 “life slots” are going to get punched whether you like it or not. The time will pass either way.

Don’t waste your next slot. Think carefully, make a decision, and go all in. Don’t just kind of go for it. Go all in. Your final results are merely a reflection of your prior commitment.


Read more at http://www.businessinsider.my/this-tip-from-warren-buffett-will-help-you-be-more-successful-at-work-and-in-life-2015-7/#5fqKjIQ1ghhmJRpw.99

Richard Branson explains his 4 rules for making difficult decisions

STRATEGY

In the summer of 2012, the British government informed Virgin Trains that it had lost the bid to retain the operating rights to the UK’s West Coast rail franchise. Virgin Trains had been running the £7 billion ($10.9 billion) franchise for 15 years, expanding the line and growing its annual passenger numbers from 13 million to 30 million.

Richard Branson, chairman of Virgin Train’s parent company the Virgin Group, writes in his book “The Virgin Way” that he was “stunned and baffled” that he could have lost the bid to the company FirstGroup.

He decided to stay quiet for awhile, meeting with lawyers and advisors to see if Virgin had actually been beaten fairly. Everyone he spoke with seemed to conclude that FirstGroup’s numbers were unsustainable, meaning the British government had made a mistake in calculations. Regardless, many of his senior team told Branson that he’d only be wasting his time and hurting his image with a lawsuit. But, after carefully weighing the facts, he decided to move forward with it.

A week before he was scheduled to meet the Department for Transport in the UK’s high court, Branson got a phone call from the department’s secretary. The secretary told him that on further review, the department had indeed made grave miscalculations and Virgin had offered the better deal.

Branson considers his decision to sue the government, which ultimately saved his rail business, to be one of the best high-stakes decisions he’s ever made. In his book he highlights four rules that he’s used to make tough decisions like this one throughout his business career, and we’ve described them below.

1. Don’t act on an emotional response.

Branson says he was flabbergasted when he first heard that the Virgin Trains deal had not gone through, but he was experienced enough to know that he should take some time to settle down and collect data instead of letting his feelings take control of him.

Had he made a statement to the press out of frustration or demanded to sue the British government solely out of instinct rather than fact, he would have increased the likelihood of having his case dismissed and appearing reckless.

It’s just as bad to act on a positive emotion, he says. Give decisions you’re considering enough time to lose the influence of your first impressions.

2. Find as many downsides to an idea as possible.

Branson carefully considers everything that could go wrong before he goes forward with a decision.

Regarding the rail case, Branson’s lawyers initially told him he had a 10% chance of winning a case against the government. But after collecting proof that some numbers in his competitor’s deals were off, he was convinced he had truth and customer support on his side.

“Nothing is perfect, so work hard at uncovering whatever hidden warts the thing might have and by removing them you’ll only make it better still,” he writes.

3. Look at the big picture.

Before he makes a decision, Branson takes a look at how it will affect his other projects in both the short and long term.

“This one may be a ‘too good to miss’ opportunity but how will it affect other projects or priorities and, if now is not the best time to do it, what risks if any are there in putting the thing on hold for an agreed period of time?” he writes. “If you cannot manage this project in addition to another that’s waiting in the wings, which one gets the nod and why?”

Branson’s latest project is Virgin Hotels, which he hopes will take advantage of a booming American hotel market.

With every project he undertakes and manages, he considers how the Virgin brand and his own name will be represented.

4. Protect the downside.

In a LinkedIn blog post from 2014, Branson writes that the best lesson his father ever taught him was to protect the downside; that is, limit possible losses before moving forward with a new business venture.

Branson’s father told him that he would allow him, at age 15, to leave high school and start Student magazine only if he sold £4,000 worth of advertising to cover printing and paper costs.

It’s a strategy he repeated in 1984 when he made a huge leap from the music business into the airline business with Virgin Atlantic. He was only able to convince his business partners at Virgin Records to agree to the deal after he got Boeing to agree to take back Virgin’s one 747 jet after a year if the business wasn’t operating as planned.

These four simple guidelines can become habit, whether you’re about to approach a prospective client or sue the British government.


Read more at http://www.businessinsider.my/how-richard-branson-makes-difficult-decisions-2015-10/#066hEpeUyiL5ofRF.99

Heuristics

Heuristics are simple rules of thumb, developed by humans, which enable them to efficiently make decisions.

Heuristics are essentials; without them it would be impossible to make the decisions required to get through a normal day.

They allow people to cope with information and computation overload and to deal with risk, uncertainty  and ignorance.

Unfortunately, these heuristics can sometimes result in tendencies to do certain things that are dysfunctional.

Everyone must be careful not to fall prey to certain (often dysfunctional) tendencies.

In the context of human activities that were not a part of most of our evolutionary past as a species, such as investing, heuristics can produce one mistake after another.

"Individuals tend to extrapolate heuristics from situations where they make sense to those where they do not."

Heuristics conserve scarce mental and physical resources, but the same process, which is sometimes beneficial, can lead people to harmful systemic errors.

An approach to risk:  Probability of loss X the amount of possible loss  versus Probability of gain X the amount of possible gain.

If the amount of loss is massive even if the probability was small, rationality should overcome psychological denial, optimism, and other negative decision-making tendencies.

The reality is that we all tell ourselves false stories to avoid the truth.

Even if you spend a lot of time studying behavioural economics, you can only improve your skills on the margin.  You will always make mistakes.

If you understand dysfunctions that are caused by behavioural economics phenomena and the other person does not, then you have a potential edge.

The best Graham value investors spend a lot of time thinking about possible sources of dysfunctional decision-making and emotional errors.

Other people's errors create opportunities for the Graham value investor.

"There is a lot of behavioural finance confirming Ben Graham's original judgment." (Professor Bruce Greenwald of Columbia Business School.)

You will need to deal with heuristics like mental accounting, sunk cost, ambiguity, regret and framing, just to name a few in your investing journey.

How smart is Warren Buffett?

"We've seen oil magnates, real estate moguls, shippers and robber barons at the top of the money heap, but Buffett is the first person to get there by picking stocks" [Rothchild, 1995]


1982            Buffett first appeared on the first Forbes list

1992            Reached top position in 1993 with a fortune of $8.2 billion.

2001-2007  Buffett was in second place (after Bill Gates).

2008            Buffett was again in first place with a fortune of $62 billion.

2010-2012   Buffett remained in third place (by that time he ha transferred some of his fortune to a charitable fund)

2013             He was in fourth place.



"Stocks are simple.  All you do is buy shares in a great business for less than the business is intrinsically worth, with management of the highest integrity and ability.  Then you own those shares forever". [Buffett]

The data on Buffett's results are reliable and his performance is very well documented.

"Is this a result of Buffett's application of his methodology, or did it happen by chance?"
"Is it possible to replicate this achievement?"
"What is required for replication?"

The question of whether financial success is achieved by chance or through application of a methodology is the central point of discussion on the rationality and efficiency of financial markets.

Buffett would not have achieved his results without the "right" investment process and without his unique abilities as a business analyst.  But icebergs always have much larger submerged parts.  The true "secrets" may hide there.  Supporting the investment process that he developed is the intellectual foundation (intellectual core) beneath his accomplishment.  

Investment Decisions and Fundamentals of Value

Investment Decision Rules:

Accept all investments with Net Present Value greater than Zero.

Accept all investments with Rates of Return greater than their Opportunity Costs of Capital





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An example:

You are considering an investment opportunity that costs $100,000 and promises to return 10%.

A comparable investment in the financial market returns 15%.

A bank offers to lend you $100,000 at 8% with no conditions.


Questions:

1.  Do you invest $100,000 in the investment opportunity?

Answer:  NO

2.  What is the investment's cost of capital?

Answer:  15%.


Reasons:

You should invest the $100,000 in the financial market that returns 15%.

The financial market provides the investing return standards against which other investments are evaluated.

Financing by the bank loan at 8% was irrelevant to the investment decision.

The investment decision and the financing decision are separate and independent decisions.

After you have made the investment decision, thus:

You are considering an investment opportunity that costs $100,000 and promises to return 10%.

A comparable investment in the financial market returns 15%.

Then you make the financing decision, thus:

A bank offers to lend you $100,000 at 8% with no conditions.

Corporate Finance by Aswath Damodaran - Youtube lectures

Corporate Finance by Aswath Damodaran

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLJCQlCCSYx7uscvh-nnJ5X3jE9CgSzWfC

Risk Management

Risk refers to the likelihood that your assets will decrease in value.

Risk is unique in that it applies to the probability of losses occurring, and the potential value of those losses.

In finance, risk is considered a type of cost.

All decisions you make have some degree of inherent risk.

Inaction too often has the greatest amount of risk, so rather than becoming paralysed by attempting to avoid all risk, look at it as a type of cost that allows you to calculate whether a financial decision will reap greater benefits that the potential losses and to compare the available options.

There are a variety of different ways to:

• avoid risk,
• reduce risk, or 
• even share risk.

Each of the above has a price.

By calculating the cost-value of specific risks, it becomes possible to determine whether any of the tools available for managing risk are financially viable and are themselves an appropriate risk.

Risk management is a critical part of financial success.

You should explore:

• the different types of financial risk, 
• the ways in which risk is measured and 
• how to effectively manage the amount of risk to which you are exposed.

Additional notes

Ways to avoid risk:  diversification and appropriate use of derivatives

Ways to share risk:  insurance

In the end, the best tool you have available to you in limiting the costs associated with risk is simple due diligence.

• Do your research, make decisions which make sense to you and keep watching so you know when that decision doesn't make sense anymore.
• If someone's credibility is in question, risk mitigation can come in forms as simple as asking for a nonrefundable down-payment, just as banks will sometimes ask for collateral before issuing loans.
• Preparing for losses can be as simple as keeping enough funds available in a liquid form so you can pay your bills until you regain your losses.  
• The duration of your exposure to losses can be shortened by ensuring you always have an exit strategy - before you commit to a decision, develop a way to undo it in a worst-case scenario.

Like most things, you get out of risk management that you put into it, and as the amount of potential risk increases, so should your intolerance for sloppy risk management.

"No risk, no reward." "Higher risk, higher returns."

Risk:  The probability and value of financial loss.

Specific risk:  Risk that is associated with an individual investment.

Old cliche in finance:  "no risk, no reward".

But there is absolutely no reason to think that accepting risk inherently generates financial returns.  

The reality is the opposite:  all other things being equal, higher risk causes you lower financial gain, since the costs you incur as a result of the elevated risk corrode the value of your assets.

All other things being equal between two distinct investment options, if one option has greater risk, then the organisation selling that investment must offer a higher rate of return in order to attract investors.

It is not that the higher risk causes higher returns - it is that investors demand higher returns in order to accept the higher risk.


Various models are used to understand the relationship between risk and returns:

1. CAPM
2. APT
3. Value at Risk
4. Expected Shortfall
5. Ratings by underwriting agencies