Value of a Business to a Private Owner

Value of a Business to a Private Owner Test

The private-owner test would ordinarily start with the net worth as shown in the balance sheet.


How to search for a bargain opportunity?

1.  Using the net worth as the starting point

The question to ask is:  Is the indicated earnings power sufficient to validate the net worth as a measure of what a private buyer would be justified in paying for the business as a whole?

If the answer is definitely yes, an ordinary investor should find the common stock attractive at a price one-third or more below such a figure.  


2.  Using the working capital as the starting point

If instead of using all the net worth as a starting point, the investor considered only the working capital and applied his test to that, he would have a more convincing demonstration of the existence of a bargain opportunity.

For it is something of an axiom or is self evident, that a business is worth to any private owner AT LEAST the amount of its working capital, since it could ordinarily be sold or liquidated for more than this figure.

If a common stock can be bought at no more than two-thirds of the working capital value alone - disregarding all the other assets - and if the earnings record and prospects are reasonably satisfactory, there is strong reason to believe that the investor is getting substantially more than his money's worth.



An example of how to find a bargain common stock:

[Peculiarly, in 1947, many such opportunities present themselves in ordinary markets.  Benjamin Graham]

National Department Stores as of January 31, 1948, the close of its fiscal year.
The price of the stock was 16 1/2.
The working capital was no less than $26.60 per share.
The total asset value was $33.30.
Deducting contingency reserves - mainly to mark down the inventory to a "LIFO" (last in first out) basis, these figures would be reduced by $2.20 per share.

The company had earned $4.12 per share in the year just closed.  The seven-year average was $3.43; the twelve-year average was $2.29.  (Growing earnings)
The year's dividend had been $1.50.  (Paying dividends)
Compared with a decade before,
-  the working-capital value had risen from $7.40 per share to $26.60,
-  the sales had doubled and (Increasing sales)
-  the net after taxes had risen from $654,000 to $3,224,000.  (Increasing profits)


Thus, we had a business
-  selling for $13 million,
-  with $25 million of assets, mostly current.  (Price < Net Assets)
-  Its sales were $88 million.  A fair estimate of average future earnings might be $2 million. (earnings record and prospects are reasonably satisfactory  or Not gruesome)

The average earnings prior to 1941 had been unimpressive, and the company was regarded as a "marginal" one in its field - that is, it could earn a reasonably good return only under favourable business conditions.  (Qualitative assessment)

In the past eight years, however, it has improved both in financial strength and in the quality of its management.  (Qualitative assessment - earnings record and prospects are reasonably satisfactory or improving quality of business and management)

Let us grant that Wall Street would still consider the company as belonging in the second rank of department-store enterprises.  (Investor sentiment/Market sentiment/Neglected by market)

Even after proper allowance is made for such an unfavourable factor, we may still conclude that on the basis of the figures the stock is intrinsically worth well above its market price.  (Worse case scenario, still Value > Price)


Conclusion:  At 16 1/2, the conclusion in the case of National Department Stores remains, whether we apply the appraisal test or the test of value to a private owner.  (Undervalued / A bargain)

Purchases of Bargain Issues

A bargain issue is defined as one which, on the basis of facts established by careful analysis, appears to be worth considerably more than it is selling for.

This includes:

• bonds and preferred stocks selling well under par, as well as
• bargain common stocks.

To be as concrete as possible, a suggested guide is an issue is not a true "bargain" unless the indicated value is at least 50% more than the price.

How to detect a bargain common stocks?  What kind of facts would warrant the conclusion that so great a discrepancy or bargain exists?

There are two tests by which a bargain common stock is detected.

1.   By method of appraisal.  

• This relies largely on estimating future earnings and then multiplying these by a factor appropriate tot he particular issue.
• If the resultant value is sufficiently above the market price - and if the investor has confidence in the technique employed - he can label the stock as a bargain.

2.  By the value of the business to a private owner.

• This value also is often determined chiefly by expected future earnings - in which case the result may be identical with the first method (the method of appraisal).
• In the second test more attention is likely to be paid to the realizable value of the assets with particular emphasis on the net current assets or working capital (current asset - current liabilities).

How do these bargains come into existence?  How does the investor profit from them?

1.  LOW POINTS IN THE GENERAL MARKET

At low points in the GENERAL MARKET, a large proportion of common stocks are bargain issues, as measured by the above standards.

[A typical example would be General Motors when it sold at less than 30 in 1941.  It had been earning in excess of $4 and paying $3.50, or more, in dividends.]

It is true that current earnings and the immediate prospects may both be poor, but a level-headed appraisal of average future conditions would indicate values far above ruling prices.

The wisdom of having courage in depressed markets is vindicated not only by the voice of experience but also by application of plausible techniques of value analysis.

2.  EXISTENCE OF MANY INDIVIDUAL COMMON STOCK BARGAINS AT ALMOST ALL MARKET LEVELS

The same vagaries of the marketplace which recurrently establish a bargain condition in the general market list account for the existence of many INDIVIDUAL BARGAINS at ALMOST ALL market levels.

The market is always making mountains out of molehills and exaggerating ordinary vicissitudes into major setbacks.  

A mere lack of interest or enthusiasm may impel a price decline to absurdly low levels.

There are two major sources of undervaluation:

(a) currently disappointing results and

(b) protracted neglect or unpopularity.

[Example of the first type (a):  In 1946, Lee Rubber & Tire Company, aided by the bull market and by steadily rising earnings, the stock sold at 72.   In the second half of 1947 the reported profits fell off moderately from the previous year's figures.  This minor development apparently generated enough pessimism to drive the shares down to 35 in early 1948.  That price was much less than the working capital alone (about $50 per share) and no greater than the amount actually earned in the previous five years.]

[Example of the second type (b):  During the 1946-47 period the price of Northern Pacific Railway declined from 36 to 13.5.   The true earnings of Northern Pacific in 1947 were close to $10 per share.  The price of the stock was held down, in great part, by its $1 dividend.  It was neglected, also, because much of its earning power was concealed by conventional accounting methods.]

The Intelligent Investor
Benjamin Graham

GROWTH STOCK APPROACH

Every investor would like to select a list of securities that will do better than the average over period of years.

A growth stock may be defined as one which has done this in the past and is expected to do so in the future.

[A company with an ordinary record cannot be called a growth company or a "growth stock" merely because its proponent expects it to do better than the average in the future.  It is just a "promising company."]

It seems only logical that the intelligent investor should concentrate upon the selection of growth stocks.

It is mere statistical chore to identify companies that have "outperformed the averages" in the past.

However, investing successfully in them is more complicated.



Two Catches of Growth Stock Investing

Two catches to watch out for in growth investing.

1.  The common stocks with good records and apparently good prospects sell at correspondingly high prices. 

• The investor may be right in his judgement of their prospects and still not fare particularly well, merely because he has paid in full (and perhaps overpaid) for the expected prosperity.

2.  His judgement as to the future may prove wrong. 

• Unusually rapid growth cannot keep up forever; when a company has already registered a brilliant expansion, its very increase in size makes a repetition of its achievement very difficult.  
• At some point the growth curve flattens out, and in many cases it turns downward.

Naturally, the purchase at a time when popular growth stocks were most favoured and active in the market would have had disastrous consequences.

• They were too obvious a choice.  
• Their future was already being paid for in the price.  
• Popular growth stocks may have failed to continue their progress and have even reported downright disappointing results.

How can your investment into growth stocks be protected?

Presumably, it is the function of intelligent investment to overcome these hazards by the exercise of sound judgement and skillful selection.

This is the natural and appropriate endeavour for the enterprising investor.

Benjamin Graham regrets that he has little concrete guidance to offer the enterprising investor in this field.

The exercise of specialized foresight, the weighing of future probabilities and possibilities are not to be learned out of books - nor can they be aided much by suggested rules and techniques.

Elaborate study of the life cycle of industries and discussing a number of "symptoms of decay"; by noticing of which the alert investor may escape out of a once expanding industry before it is too late.

These suggested techniques require more ability and application than most investors can bring to bear on the problem.

[It is debatable whether once an industry has turned downward, it will never recover and that all securities within it must be permanently avoided.]



More guidance on Growth Stock Investing

The stock of a growing company, if purchasable at a suitable price, is obviously preferable to others.

No matter how enthusiastic the investor may feel about the prospects of a particular company, however, he should set a limit upon the price that he is willing to pay for such prospects.

• Such a rule would result at times in the missing of an unusually good opportunity. 
• More often, it would mean the investor's saving himself from "going overboard" on an issue that looked especially good to him and everyone else and consequently was selling much too high.

An illustration of investing in growth stocks

Two highly successful enterprises and both were considered to have excellent prospects of long-term growth.  Both were priced at 22 times that year's earnings.  The average price of Company A in 1939 was 62 and the price of company B in 1939 was 42.  The ordinary investor was as likely to buy one issue as the other.

Company A 's earnings had risen from $2.9 per share in 1939 to $10.90 per share in 1947.  Its price was equivalent to 150 or much more than double its 1939 average.  In the same years, the profits of Company B had moved up from $1.89 to $2.13, in spite of the record prosperity of 1947 and its price had fallen from 42 to 29.


                       Company A        Company B               Company C
                       1939    1947       1939   1947               1939    1947

Price               62         150         42       29                        6      26
Earnings        2.9         10.9      1.89    2.13                  0.13     3.14
P/E                 22                        22


The choice between the attractive issue that turns out well and the one that does poorly is by no means easy to make in the growth-stock field.


At the same time, it might be interesting to add a third pharmaceutical Company C which was by no means well regarded in 1939 - for its average price was only 6 (as against 28 in 1929) and it paid no dividend.  On its past record it could not qualify at all as a growth issue.  Yet in 1947 its earnings were $3.14 per share as against only 13 cents in 1939, and its April price in 1948 had risen to 26 - a much better percentage gain than CompanyA's.

The best opportunity in the field of drug stocks turned out to be where it was least expected - an all too frequent happening.


Inferences from the above illustration for investing in Growth Stocks

• Superior results may be obtained in this field if the choices are competently made.
• Even with careful selection, some of the individual issues may fare relatively poorly.  Some may actually decline and others may have only slight advances
• Thus for good results in the growth stock field there is need not only for skillful analysis but for ample diversification as well.

Summary on investing in Growth Stocks

1. The enterprising investor may properly buy growth stocks.
2. He should beware of paying excessively for them.  He might well limit the price by some practical rule.
3. A growth stock program will not be automatically successful; its outcome will depend on the foresight and judgement of the investor or his advisors rather than on any  clear-cut methods of analysis.

Avoid buying these securities when available at full prices

In selecting investments, in terms of psychology as well as arithmetic, we are guided by three requirements of:

1. underlying safety,
2. simplicity of choice, and
3. promise of  satisfactory results.

Using these criteria has led to the exclusion from the field of recommended investment a number of security classes which are normally regarded as suitable for various kinds of investors.

INVESTMENTS TO AVOID AT FULL PRICES

Advised against the purchase at FULL PRICES of three important categories of securities:

(a) foreign bonds;

(b) ordinary corporate bonds and preferred stocks, under present conditions of relative yield when the best grade issues yield little more than his US Savings Bonds;

(c) secondary common stocks, including, original offerings of such issues.

By full prices, we mean 

• prices close to par for bonds or preferred stocks, and 
• prices that represent about the fair business value of the enterprise in the case of common stocks.

ADVICE FOR DEFENSIVE INVESTORS

The greater number of defensive investors are to avoid these categories REGARDLESS OF PRICE.

ADVICE FOR ENTERPRISING INVESTORS

Enterprising investors are to buy them only when obtainable at BARGAIN PRICES - which is defined as prices not more than two-thirds of the appraisal value of the securities.

REASONINGS

FOREIGN GOVERNMENT BONDS

Why people buy and why they should avoid purchasing foreign Government bonds?  

• They wanted "just a little more income."  The country seemed like a good risk - and that was enough.  The purchasers of the foreign Government bonds must have told themselves that the bonds are practically riskless, presumably on the ground that the country was a far different kind of debtor than other know riskier countries.  
• At times, the buyer was obtaining just a slight percentage more on his money than the yield on AAA corporate bonds - and this hardly enough to warrant the assumption of a recognized risk.  
• By what process of calculation could the buyers of the foreign Government bonds assure themselves that at no time before their maturity date, would that country suffer severe economic, or internal political, or international problems?  Also, the high interest rates themselves helped to make default inevitable, especially in distressed countries offering by high interest on their foreign Government bonds.

CORPORATE BONDS OR PREFERRED STOCKS

How to entice people to buy corporate bonds or preferred stocks?  

          For corporate bonds and preferred stocks to be bought, these would either 

• have to increase their yields so as to offer a reasonable alternative to US Savings Bonds for individual investors or 
• else would be bought solely by financial institutions - insurance companies, savings banks, commercial banks, and the like,  Such institutions have their own justification for buying corporate securities at current yields.

SECONDARY COMMON STOCKS

How and when to buy secondary common stocks?  

• Secondary issues, for the most part, do fluctuate about a central level which is well below their fair value.  They reach and even surpass that value at times; but this occurs in the upper reaches of bull markets, when the lessons of practical experience would argue against the soundness of paying the prevailing prices for common stocks.  The aggressive investor should accept the central market levels which are normal for that class as their guide in fixing own levels for purchase.  Financial history says clearly that the investor may expect satisfactory results, on the average, from secondary common stocks only if he buys them for less than their value to a private owner, that is, on a bargain basis. 
• [There is a paradox here, nevertheless.  The average well-selected secondary company may be fully as promising as the average industrial leader.  What the smaller concern lacks in inherent stability it may readily make up in superior possibilities of growth.  Consequently, it may appear illogical to many readers to term "unintelligent" the purchase of such secondary issues at their full "enterprise value."  ]

Intelligent Investor

Benjamin Graham

Portfolio Policy for the Enterprising Investor

Negative Approach

1. Avoid ordinary corporate bonds as long as the best grade issues yield little more than his US Savings Bonds ("risk free" bonds).
2. Leave high-grade preferred stocks to corporate buyers (they enjoy a tax benefit).
3. Avoid inferior types of bonds and preferred stocks unless they can be bought at a bargain levels (at least 30% under par).
4. Let someone else buy foreign government bond issues, even though the yield may be attractive.
5. Be wary of all kinds of new issues (new bonds, new preferred stocks and new stocks), including convertible bonds and preferreds that seem quite tempting.
6. Be wary of common stocks with excellent earnings confined to the recent past.

The Positive Approach (4 Approaches)

1. Buying in low markets and selling in high markets.
2. Buying carefully chosen "growth stocks".
3. Buying bargain issues of various types.
4. Buying into "special situations".

The Intelligent Investor

Benjamin Graham

Here's Why Malaysians Can't Afford a House

By Pooi Koon Chong
October 11, 2017,

Regulator sets up housing website to defend finance complaints

Central Bank Tells Malaysians Homes not Affordable

Malaysia’s central bank has a response to those saying it needs to do more to spur home loans: houses simply aren’t affordable.

Bank Negara Malaysia has created a website packed with data aimed at debunking the “myth” that access to financing was deterring home ownership, showing that loan approvals for key cities are near 70 percent or higher. The central bank has resisted calls to loosen mortgage lending, instead saying the property industry should boost efforts to cut costs and accelerate supply.

Rising home prices have added to the grievances of Malaysians grappling with the cost of living since a goods and services tax started two years ago, and as the government removes subsidies on daily items including petrol and sugar. That’s made affordable housing a key voter issue for Prime Minister Najib Razak ahead of a general election that must be held by mid-2018.

“It’s a tricky situation,” said Wan Saiful Wan Jan, chief executive officer of the Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs in Kuala Lumpur. “I don’t think it’s right to say that there’s no problem with financing. But lending rules have to be both strict and balanced at the same time, otherwise we’ll have more non-performing loans and that is not good for anyone in the country.”


The median house price in Malaysia was 4.4 times the median annual household income in latest available data, making the housing market “seriously unaffordable” compared to global standards, according to a 2015 report by state-run Khazanah Research Institute. The report classed an affordable market as one with a median multiple of 3 times.

That still makes Malaysia cheaper than many other markets, with affordable housing in key cities something of a rarity in the 21st century. In the latest Demographia study, Kuala Lumpur had the eighth best housing affordability out of 18 metropolitan regions around the globe, with Hong Kong homes costing 19 times income and Beijing 14.5 times.

Take a closer look at the forces shaping Malaysia's economy, politics and markets

Malaysia’s central bank is seeking to strike a balance: its housing website aims to show transparency in the market while the lender also stands firm on stricter financing rules introduced since 2010 to curb speculation, as well as measures to promote responsible lending amid elevated consumer debt.


Household debt as a proportion of gross domestic product fell to 88.4 percent last year from 89.1 percent. It’s still one of the region’s highest and the nation needs to be careful of such levels, central bank Governor Muhammad Ibrahim said in July. The central bank has left borrowing costs unchanged at 3 percent since July last year.

Just 20 percent of new Malaysian housing launches in the first quarter were priced below 250,000 ringgit ($59,000), down from 33 percent between 2010 and 2014, according to the central bank’s “Housing Watch” website. The bulk of new homes cost between 250,000 ringgit and 500,000 ringgit. The median annual household income is estimated at around 63,000 ringgit.

“It is an issue of not having enough income and houses being too expensive,” Muhammad told a conference in August, reiterating that “the problem is not about access to credit” and the lender “must have the courage to say it loudly and clearly to the public.”

Only about half of people living in Kuala Lumpur own a home, while nationwide the number was 72.5 percent at the last census in 2010. Demand is set to rise: the median age of Malaysia’s 31.7 million people is 28 years and the nation’s urban population is growing at an average 4 percent a year, among the fastest pace in East Asia, according to the World Bank.

Najib has pledged to focus on boosting living standards when he tables next year’s spending plan in parliament this month. He may announce an increase in the number of affordable homes built by state-linked companies, tax relief for private developers and subsidies for affordable home buyers, RHB Research Institute Sdn. said last month.

Filling the Gap

Banks are being “prudent and responsible” in providing finance to buyers, an association of Malaysia commercial lenders said in a statement this week. It was seeking to refute claims by developers that house buyers are finding it harder to obtain a housing loan and that approval times are increasing.

Developers should instead be looking at their own industry, said Paul Selvaraj, secretary general of the Federation of Malaysian Consumers Associations.

“The focus should be on building houses which people can afford, not building expensive houses and then trying to push them, and then complaining that the banks are not giving loans,” he said. “The reason people are having problems getting loans is because the houses are not affordable. It’s beyond their repayment” ability, he said.

Some developers are slowly starting to fill the demand. Mah Sing Group Bhd., the nation’s third largest, is selling apartments within 5 kilometers from Kuala Lumpur’s center with prices starting from 328,000 ringgit for a 650 square foot unit. That’s within the maximum price a family on the city’s median income could afford.

The problem is set to become a bigger one over time. There is currently a shortage of 960,000 units of affordable housing in Malaysia, with the number projected to reach 1 million units by 2020, according to the central bank’s estimates.

“It’s a very important issue for Najib to address,” said Wan Saiful. “I’m just really wondering what more can Najib do other than provide heavy subsidies, at a level that maybe even the government cannot afford to do.”


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-10/here-s-why-you-can-t-afford-a-house-central-bank-tells-malaysia

DEFENSIVE AND ENTERPRISING INVESTORS

The basic characteristics of an investment portfolio will be determined largely by the position of the individual owner.

• Savings banks, life insurance companies and "legal" trust funds:  High grade bonds and high grade preferred stocks.
• The well to do and experienced businessman, as long as he considers these to be attractive purchases:  Any kind of bond or stock. 

Those who cannot afford to take risks should be content with a low return on their invested funds.





DEFENSIVE AND ENTERPRISING INVESTORS

The general notion is the rate of return which the investor should aim for is more or less proportionate to the degree of risk he is ready to run.

The better view is the rate of return sought should be dependent, rather, on the amount of INTELLIGENT EFFORT the investor is wiling and able to bring to bear on his task.

An intelligent investor is one who is endowed with the capacity for knowledge and understanding.

The minimum return goes to the passive or defensive investor, who wants both safety and freedom from concern.

The maximum return would be realized by the alert and enterprising investor who exercises maximum intelligence and skill.

In many cases, there may be less real risk associated with buying a "bargain issue" offering the chance of a large profit than with a conventional bond purchase yielding under 3 per cent.

The kinds of investments that are suitable for  defensive and enterprising investors

A.  The defensive investor will buy:
1.  US Savings Bonds (and/or tax-exempt securities)
2.  A diversified list of leading common stocks, at prices that seem reasonable in the light of past market experience - or
2a.  Shares of leading investment funds

B.  The enterprising investor will buy:
1, 2, 2a.   As above
3.  Growth stocks, but with caution.
4.  Also, or alternatively, representative common stocks when the general market is historically low
5.  Secondary common stocks, corporate bonds and preferred stocks at bargain levels.
6.  Some exceptional convertible issues, even at full prices.


There are important categories of securities which the intelligent individual investor will not buy.  These are as follows:

1.  Investment-grade corporate bonds and preferred stocks when their current yields are lower or only slightly higher than US Savings bonds or foreign government issues at full prices.
2.  Leading common stocks when the market is at high levels as judged by past experience.
3.  Secondary common stocks, except at tempting low prices.
4.  As a corollary of 3, he will not buy new issues of common stocks, with infrequent exceptions.  (This does not refer to the exercise of subscription rights on leading issues.)


The intelligent investors should not support new security financing except on terms which offer them proportionately as attractive a combination of income and safety as is obtainable by the purchase of US Savings Bonds plus common stocks of leading corporations at normal market prices.


The Intelligent Investor
Benjamin Graham

CONCEPT OF "RISK"

The opposite of risk is safety.

Are good bonds less risky than good preferred stocks?

Are good bonds and good preferred stocks less risky than good common stocks?

Are common stocks, thus, not "safe"?



RISKS IN VARIOUS ASSETS

1. BOND:  A bond is clearly unsafe when it defaults its interest or principal payments.
2. STOCK:  Similarly, if you have bought a preferred stock or a common stock with the expectation that a given rate of dividend will be continued, then a reduction or passing of the dividend means that it is unsafe.  Another risk is, if there is a fair possibility, that the holder may have to sell at a time when the price is well below cost.
3. PROPERTY:  The man who holds a mortgage on a building might have to take a loss if he were forced to sell it at an unfavourable time.  In the judging the safety or risk of ordinary real-estate mortgages, the only criterion being the certainty of punctual payments.
4. BUSINESS:  The risk attached to an ordinary commercial business is measured by the chance of its losing money, not by what would happen if the owner, were forced to sell.

MARKET PRICE DECLINES AND THE STOCK INVESTOR'S WELL SELECTED PORTFOLIO

A bona fide investor does not lose money merely because the market price of his holdings declines; the fact that a decline may occur does not mean that he is running a true risk of loss.

If a group of well-selected common-stock investments shows a satisfactory over-all return, as measure through a fair number of years, then this group investment has proved to be "safe."

During that period its market value is bound to fluctuate, and as likely as not it will sell for a while under the buyer's cost.

If that fact makes the investment "risky" it would then have to be called both risky and safe at the same time.



CONCEPT OF RISK IS SOLELY A LOSS OF VALUE

This confusion may be avoided if we apply the concept of risk solely to a loss of value which either
(a) is realized through actual sale or
(b) is ascertained to be caused by a significant deterioration in the company's position.

Many common stocks do involve risks of such deterioration.

But it is our thesis that a properly executed group investment in common stocks does not carry any substantial risk of this sort and that therefore it should not be termed "risky" merely because of the element of price fluctuation.



MARKET PRICE DECLINE

• The prices of all stocks may decline 
• In fact, other than Savings Bonds, all financial assets' prices can decline.  
• Stocks then to decline to a greater extent than bonds and preferred shares.
• This decline may be of a cyclical and temporary nature and the holder is also unlikely to be forced to sell at such times. 
• Market price decline is not a true risk (in the useful sense of the term).

The concept of risk. Risk = Loss of VALUE

We should apply the concept of risk solely to a loss of value which either

(a) is realized through actual sale or

(b) is ascertained to be caused by a significant deterioration in the company's position or fundamentals.  (Many common stocks do involve risks of such deterioration.)

YOUR PORTFOLIO OF STOCKS AND MARKET PRICE FLUCTUATIONS

A carefully selected and constructed portfolio in common stocks does not carry any substantial risk of this sort, that is, the risk of loss of value.

Therefore, it should not be termed "risky":

• merely because of the element of price fluctuation, which maybe of a cyclical and temporary nature, and,
• moreover, the holder is unlikely to be forced to sell at such times.

Market price fluctuation is not risk; it is the friend of the value investors.

Warren Buffett’s $1 test and how to tell if a company is allocating its capital wisely

Buffett is essentially talking about return on invested capital.

• If a company invests $100 in something at the cost of capital of 10%, which in turn earns $7 in earnings forever, it would have a market value of only $70 ($7/10%), failing the $1 test. 
• Earnings of $11 or more would pass the test. 
• When companies make the decision to invest in M&A, CapEx or buybacks, they must make a conscious effort in evaluating if the potential returns would be meaningful and not capital destructive.

------

By The Fifth Investor on October 9, 2017

Companies small or big must make capital allocation decisions on a frequent basis to maximize returns for shareholders. But only a few companies in the world have excellent capital allocators at their helms, most companies are run by excellent operators who alone are enough to generate meaningful profits, which shareholders would find forgiving enough.

Before a corporation invests in machinery, equipment, property or securities, like us they must make comparisons of returns that they’ll get when they allocate capital. These decisions are far more complex than personal decisions as they often involve a giant leap of faith into the unknown.

• How did Google calculate that Android would be a massive hit when they decided to allocate millions of R&D to it? 
• How did Google’s other failures not stop it from deciding to simply invest their monies in stocks or bonds or themselves (share buybacks)?

These decisions are of the highest risk, have a high potential for failure but if successful often give shareholders a multifold return. Although this may seem daunting to a budding retail investor, there are simpler ways to see if a company is allocating capital wisely: think top-down, think big.

1.  Capital expenditures –

• Is the company spending its cash meaningfully in CapEx? 
• What is the return on invested capital for the company? 
• Has the company managed to earn healthy returns on the incremental invested capital over the years? 
• What is their strategy? 
• In CapEx intensive industries, sometimes CapEx is spent not to expand and grow the business, but to just survive. That is often not an ideal situation as there’s no buffer should the market turn. 
• On the other hand, a CapEx-lite industry would see companies compete by spending in other areas that may not appear in the CapEx category.

2.  Share buybacks –

• Is the company spending its precious money buying back shares at all-time highs? 
• There’s a difference between mandated share buybacks and opportunistic buybacks. One is buying back shares no matter the price of the shares, and the latter is buying back shares only if the value of the company is worth more than its traded price (E.g. Berkshire will only execute buybacks when its P/B ratio is below 1.2).

3.  Mergers & acquisitions –

• Is the company acquiring businesses to bolt on to their existing operations? 
• How competent is the current management in the new industry where they’ve acquired a company? 
• How much of a premium have they paid to buy a company? 
• Does it even make sense? 
• A wasteful merger or acquisition can be deadly to your financial health.

4.  Cash –

• Is this company cash rich? 
• Does the management not know what to do with it? 
• What’s holding the company back? 
• Companies that are cash rich often trade at a discount, making them appear cheap, the most famous example would be Apple (although there may be tax reasons why Apple has stashed such a huge pile). 
• There’s a reason why companies like these appear cheap – the market deems the management to be incompetent in redeploying capital to earn a meaningful return for shareholders, and applies a discount to its shares.

Another way to look at it is the simple $1 test that Warren Buffett came up with in the 1980s:

“We feel noble intentions should be checked periodically against results. We test the wisdom of retaining earnings by assessing whether retention, over time, delivers shareholders at least $1 of market value for each $1 retained.

Unrestricted earnings should be retained only where there is a reasonable prospect – backed preferably by historical evidence or, when appropriate by a thoughtful analysis of the future – that for every dollar retained by the corporation, at least one dollar of market value will be created for owners. This will happen only if the capital retained produces incremental earnings equal to, or above, those generally available to investors.”

Buffett is essentially talking about return on invested capital. If a company invests $100 in something at the cost of capital of 10%, which in turn earns $7 in earnings forever, it would have a market value of only $70 ($7/10%), failing the $1 test. Earnings of $11 or more would pass the test. When companies make the decision to invest in M&A, CapEx or buybacks, they must make a conscious effort in evaluating if the potential returns would be meaningful and not capital destructive.

Companies that have heavy R&D spending as opposed to being CapEx-intensive like technology or pharmaceutical firms would require a more sophisticated understanding of their business models. That being said, the fundamentals of capital allocation are like the laws of physics – you can only spend so much cash on multiple failed ventures before the market realizes that you are incompetent.


The fifth perspective

Looking from the lens of an individual, companies are no different from investors at the very root – they’re in the business of making money. There will always be foolish investors and companies alike that waste their money in failed ventures or stupid decisions, and there will always be some rare, exceptional cases that earn outsized returns. Sticking to the basics in asking the most fundamental and simple questions can sometimes save your wealth and/or your company.



http://fifthperson.com/warren-buffetts-1-test-tell-company-allocating-capital-wisely/

A Strategy for Losing Money

A Strategy for Losing Money
Thursday, July 14, 2016


I can give you a name of a fund trading with the equivalent of a 23% sales charge. It’s actively managed by a company that’s incurred large outflows from its signature mutual fund following the departure of its star chief investment officer. Interested in owning it?

You probably aren’t, but some investors were. PIMCO’s Municipal Income Fund (PMF) , a closed-end fund, traded at a 23.4% premium to the underlying value of its net assets last Friday. Put another way, some investors were paying $1.23 for $1.00 worth of net assets. One doesn’t have to know much about investing to realize this isn’t smart.

PIMCO Municipal Income Fund wasn’t the only offender. Eight other closed-end muni bonds funds ended last week with premiums of 10% or more. In comparison, the average closed-end bond fund traded at a 2.32% discount (meaning investors paid just under $0.98 for every dollar of assets), according to the Closed-End Fund Association (CEFA). The average stock closed-end fund traded at a 7.49% discount.

For those of you who are curious, here are the highly priced bond funds, sorted in descending order by their premium based on data for last Friday (July 8) from the CEFA:

PIMCO Muni Income (PMF), 23.40% premium
PIMCO NY Muni Income II (PNI), 21.62% premium
PIMCO CA Muni Income III (PZC), 16.78% premium
BlackRock VA Muni Bd Tr (BHV), 15.27% premium
Pimco CA Muni Income II (PCK), 15.27% premium
BlackRock MuniYld AZ (MZA), 14.71% premium
PIMCO CA Muni Income (PCQ), 12.52% premium
BlackRock MuniVest II (MVT), 11.97% premium
PIMCO NY Muni Income (PNF), 10.59% premium

The premiums on several of the funds have come down since last Friday, but still remain high. As of yesterday, PIMCO Muni Income trades at an 18.89% premium.

Closed-end funds differ from mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by having a fixed number of shares. As money flows into and out of mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, the number of outstanding shares is adjusted. Mutual funds directly issue shares to and redeem shares from shareholders. ETFs adjust their share counts through creation units, which are large blocks of shares issued to and redeemed from institutional investors and large traders. If there are more investment dollars flowing into a closed-end fund than the net value of its assets, shares of the fund will trade at a premium to their net asset value (NAV). It’s the law of supply and demand. More dollars will drive up the share price because transaction proceeds go into the pockets of selling shareholders, but never into the closed-end fund. (New investor dollars only flow into a closed-end fund when an offering occurs, which is not very often.)

This fact invokes the greater fool theory. When a premium, particularly a high premium, is paid, the investor is hoping there is someone willing to pay an even higher price for the same shares. Two events could cause this investor to incur a loss. The first is the fund’s net asset value declining, which should cause the share price to decline and is an inherent risk with any type of fund. The second is a decrease in the premium. Should the premium decline faster than the fund appreciates in value, the investor could lose even though the underlying net asset value of the shares increased in price. The worse-case scenario, of course, is for the fund’s NAV to decline and its premium to shrink—a double whammy.

How do you avoid such a scenario? Check the Closed-End Fund Association’s website. They list a closed-end fund's premium or discount right on the quote page. I also find their screener to be very helpful. (Click on "fund selector" near the top of any page.) You can screen by type of fund as well as by other characteristics, such as premium and discount.

http://www.aaii.com/files/investorupdate/20160714.html?a=updatenm071416

Warren Buffett lives in a modest house — here's what it looks like

NOW WATCH: Warren Buffett lives in a modest house that's worth .001% of his total wealth — here's what it looks like

The 'Warren Buffett of Sweden' gives his best advice on building wealth

The 'Warren Buffett of Sweden' gives his best advice on building wealth
Tom Turula, Business Insider

Roughly one in ten Swedes are millionaires in Swedish crowns, according to data from SBAB, a Swedish bank. (A million Swedish crowns, when converted to US dollars, is worth about $125,000.)

Per H. Börjesson, the founder and CEO of Swedish investment company Spiltan, thinks there could, and should, be many more.

Börjesson's bestselling book "Here's how all Swedes can become millionaires" draws from his experience running his company, an investment firm with $3.4 billion (27 billion Swedish crowns) under management.

The book has a simple message: The key to becoming financially independent is to follow a number of simple savings advice, and stick with them through thick and thin.

Börjesson is a big fan of investor legend Warren Buffett. His strong track record with Spiltan, one of Sweden's foremost investment companies, combined with his affinity for the Sage of Omaha has earned Börjesson the informal nickname "Warren Buffet of Sweden."

He has even made Spiltan's annual shareholder meetings into spectacles modeled on Berkshire Hathway's.

Moreover, Börjesson is often seen quoting Buffett's advice in the media, such as: “If you aren’t willing to own a stock for ten years, don’t even think about owning it for ten minutes."

Here are Per H. Börjesson's 5 key pieces of advice to young people starting out today, and to anyone else for that matter, according to Veckans Affärer (VA).

1. Start each month by saving 10 percent of your income.
"Absorb the oldest and best investment advice there is: save 10 percent of your salary each month, before you do anything else. Don't wait," Börjesson told Dagens Industri.

2. Live within your means, i.e. don't let your costs surpass incomes.
Börjesson said: "I notice all the time how people spend money on things that are not necessary, such as eating lunch in a restaurant instead of preparing your own, buying coffee on your way to work, or lottery tickets, cigarettes, etc."

3. Buy shares or equity funds.
"If you buy equities, then investment companies are a good alternative. When it comes to funds, choose index funds with low fees, or active funds. You can also buy individual quality stocks."

4. Hold on to your assets.
"The best thing is to never sell all of your shares. But you can use some of your assets for an apartment or for that dream holiday."

5. Be very careful when listening to investment advisors.
Börjesson said that you shouldn't rely too much on "experts", but instead make independent decisions when it comes to your money. When buying your index funds, make sure that fees are low. That way, you will be able to keep most of the fund's returns.

"The most tragic thing is that even people who do a good job of saving each month, cannot possibly become millionaires if they accept bad advice from advisors who are really just salesmen," Börjesson said.


http://uk.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-of-sweden-gives-advice-on-building-wealth-2017-9/?IR=T

Pentamaster’s PIL valued at RM321mil

Proposed IPO in Hong Kong involves sale of 23% stake in the unit

• StarBiz
• 12 Sep 2017

PETALING JAYA: Pentamaster Corp Bhd is planning to list its most profitable subsidiary, valued at RM321mil, on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to raise funds for the expansion of its smart home applications and Internet of things (IoT) business.

The proposed initial public offering (IPO) involves the sale of a 23% stake in Pentamaster International Ltd (PIL) to investors at a price to be determined at a later date, the company said in a filing with Bursa Malaysia. Pentamaster owns 92.6% of PIL.

The share sale will reduce its stake in the unit, which generated all its profits in the financial year ended Dec 31, 2016, to 63%.

Pentamaster will be required to seek its shareholders’ approval in a general meeting for the proposed dilution.

The IPO exercise is expected to be completed in the first quarter of next year.

“The proposed listing will provide the company and its automated solutions business with a diverse fund-raising platform in the future, which, in turn, will increase its financing flexibility to fund its future growth,” Pentamaster said in the statement yesterday.

The company said the offer price for PIL would be determined at a later date.

Pentamaster had announced the plan to spin off its unit in June this year. The planned fund-raising scheme had helped propel the stock 250% higher this year at yesterday’s close of RM4.73.

At this level, the company has a market capitalisation of RM693mil.

The valuation for PIL was ascribed by McMillan Woods Partners in Singapore.

McMillan Woods was appointed as the independent valuer to provide its valuation on the fair market value of the PIL Group to the board.

Pentamaster said it intended to use the proceeds from the share sale exercise to pay for future expansion of the group’s smart building solutions or building management system, and/or property development projects applying such solutions and system, as well as the IoT solutions with applications covering digital mobile software, payment gateway, secured software and/or building construction applications and solutions.

In addition, the fund will be utilised for technology-related investments in business applications covering healthcare, bioscience, aviation, information and communications technology, finance, social environment, energy and infrastructure.

The proceeds will also be allocated for working capital to carry out the new initiatives, including research and development, the hiring of employees, marketing and administrative expenses.

Meanwhile, the net proceeds to be raised by PIL from the public issue of new shares are proposed to be utilised for capital investment and costs in relation to the construction of a new production plant in Batu Kawan Industrial Park, Penang, and the expansion of its existing production plant in Bayan Lepas, Penang.

The net proceeds will also be used for working capital, business expansion into the Greater China region (comprising China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan), the establishment of an office in California in the United States, as well as for marketing, branding and promotional activities.

The details of the proposed listing, including the size and structure of the proposed share offer, the offer price and the amount of proceeds to be raised, will be determined at a later date upon approval being obtained from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, closer to the launch of the prospectus of PIL and after taking into account the prevailing equity market and industry conditions in which the PIL Group is operating.

Pentamaster, which closed 0.4% higher at RM4.73, traded on a volume of 405,000 shares.

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Pentamaster to list automated solution arm on HK exchange

Posted on 11 September 2017 - 08:45pm

sunbiz@thesundaily.com

Print

PETALING JAYA: Pentamaster Corp Bhd (PCB) proposes to list its automated solution business, Pentamaster International Limited (PIL), on the main board of The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Ltd (HKEX).

While the exact details of the proposed listing, including size and structure of the proposed share offer, the offer price and amount of proceeds to be raised, are yet to be determined, PBC did say that its equity interest in PIL is expected to reduce from 92.60% as at Aug 30, 2017 to 63.10% upon completion of the exercise.

The entire exercise comprises of a share award scheme for eligible employees of PIL and its subsidiaries; proposed listing of the PIL and proposed dilution of PCB’s equity interest in PIL.

Profit after tax attributable to owners of PIL amounted to RM17.77 million for the financial period ended June 30, 2017.

The proposals are subjected to approvals being obtained from the shareholders of PCB at an EGM to be convened.

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Pentamaster to inject 3 units into Hong Kong-bound arm

Author: moneyKing   |   Publish Date: 18 Jul 2017, 10:07 AM

Wong Ee Lin/theedgemarkets.com
July 17, 2017 21:43 pm MYT

KUALA LUMPUR (July 17): Pentamaster Corp Bhd plans to inject three of its automated solution subsidiaries into Pentamaster International Ltd (PIL), which it intends to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

The three wholly-owned subsidiaries are Pentamaster Technology (M) Sdn Bhd, Pentamaster Equipment Manufacturing Sdn Bhd and Pentamaster Instrumentation Sdn Bhd.

The three units will be injected into PIL for a collective RM86.78 million, which will be satisfied via the issuance of 999 PIL shares to Pentamaster.

"The internal reorganisation will facilitate a more efficient group structure by way of promoting a better segregation of business responsibilities and operations for Pentamaster’s existing automated solution business and its other smart control solution system business," said Pentamaster in a filing with Bursa Malaysia today.

"This will in turn enable the management of the automated solution business and smart control solution system business to efficiently allocate resources and focus on their respective businesses.
"In addition, the internal reorganisation will also facilitate PIL to act as the listing entity for the proposed listing," it added.

Following the internal reorganisation, Pentamaster will proceed to dispose of a 7.4% stake in PIL to Singapore-based private equity fund GEMS Opportunities Limited Partnership RM25.5 million.
The proposed disposal is expected to result in a gain on disposal of RM19.08 million.

Pentamaster said it intends to use the proceeds from the proposed disposal for expenses in relation to the proposed listing, to repay borrowings, for staff and other general administrative and operating related expenses and sales and marketing expenses.

The disposal consideration of RM25.5 million in PIL represents a price to earnings (PE) multiple of 10.4 times to the audited combined net profit of Pentamaster Technology, Pentamaster Equipment and Pentamaster Instrumentation of RM33.14 million for the financial year ended Dec 31, 2016.
The PE multiple falls within the range of the high (17.96 times) and low (6.45 times) of Pentamaster’s traded PE multiple for the past 12 months up to the date of this announcement.
Barring any unforeseen circumstances, the proposals are expected to be completed by the third quarter of 2017.

In June, Pentamaster announced that it is pursuing a separate listing for its automated solution business in Hong Kong.

Pentamaster shares closed down eight sen or 2.13% to RM3.68 today for a market capitalisation of RM539.37 million.


http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/pentamaster-inject-3-units-hong-kongbound-arm


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Pentamaster to gain RM19mil from sale of 7.4% in PIL
CORPORATE NEWS
Monday, 17 Jul 2017

KUALA LUMPUR: Pentamaster Corp Bhd


, which seeks to list its automated solution business in Hong Kong held under holding company Pentamaster International Ltd (PIL), is selling a 7.4% stake in PIL to GEMS Opportunities Ltd Partnership for RM25.5mil.

In a filing with Bursa Malaysia, Pentamaster said it stood to gain RM19.08mil from selling the equity interest in newly-incorporated PIL to GEMS, a Singapore-based private equity fund.

Pentamaster had on Monday signed agreements to transfer its entire equity interest in three wholly-owned subsidiaries involved in the automated solution business to PIL and, afterwards, to sell 7.4% equity interest in PIL to GEMS for RM25.5mil in cash.

It said the internal reorganisation would lead to a more efficient group structure separating PCB’s existing automated solution business and its other smart control solution system business.

Besides for raising funds, Pentamaster said its proposed disposal of PIL shares to GEMS would broaden PIL’s shareholder base by exposing it to international institutional investors.

It added that GEMS’ positioning as strategic investor of PIL, coupled with fund manager GEMS Capital Pte Ltd’s extensive investment experience and network, would add value to the proposed listing.

On the use of the RM25.5mil proceeds, Pentamaster said the bulk - RM15mil - would go towards paying the listing expenses while RM7.5mil would be for repaying bank borrowings.

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/07/17/pentamaster-to-gain-rm19mil-from-sale-of-7pt4pc-in-pil/#HcHdSuczADQuAwPX.99


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Pentamaster eyes HK listing of automated solution business
CORPORATE NEWS
Tuesday, 13 Jun 2017


KUALA LUMPUR: Pentamaster Corp Bhd is pursuing a separate listing for its automated solution business in Hong Kong.

In a filing with Bursa Malaysia, the company said it had appointed advisers for the purpose of listing the business on the main board of the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Ltd, including financial advisory firm Altus Capital Ltd as the sponsor.

It said the automated solution business would gain recognition and corporate stature through having its own listing status, hence allowing it to expand of its customer base.

The proposed listing is also expected to enhance efficiency by way of promoting a clearer segregation of business responsibilities and operations for Pentamaster’s existing automated solution business, thereby enabling the respective management teams to focus on opportunities specific to each of the automated solution business.

Pentamaster said the proposed exercise would also unlock shareholders’ value and provide the company and its automated solution business with a diverse fund-raising platform in the future.

The group has three operating segments: automated equipment (its biggest revenue and profit contributor), automated manufacturing solution, and smart control solution system.

“Prior to the completion of the proposed listing, Pentamaster will undertake a reorganisation of its subsidiaries involved in the automated solution business and these subsidiaries will continue to remain as its subsidiaries on completion of the proposed listing,” the company said.

It said a detailed announcement would be made in due course after it had finalised and approved the structure of the proposed listing.

To facilitate the proposed listing, Pentamaster has applied to incorporate a wholly-owned subsidiary in the Cayman Islands, namely Pentamaster International Ltd (PIL), on Monday. PIL’s principal activity is that of investment holding.

Pentamaster said the board wished to highlight to its shareholders that the proposed listing was at a preliminary stage and fairly extensive preparatory work was required and that such preparatory work might involve an uncertain time frame.

“Shareholders should note that the proposed listing may or may not materialise,” it said.

The company noted that the exercise was subject to, among others, satisfactory due diligence and assessment of suitability for listing by the Hong Kong sponsor and other professional advisers, approvals being obtained from the relevant authorities in Hong Kong and Malaysia (where required), as well as the shareholders at an EGM to be convened.

In addition, the proposed listing depends on assessment of other factors such as general economic and capital market conditions.

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/06/13/pentamaster-eyes-hk-listing-of-automated-solution-business/#mSKS5z4zH64Mv8QA.99

Stock Valuation Manifesto Checklist

September 11, 2017 | Vishal Khandelwal  

https://www.safalniveshak.com/stock-valuation-manifesto/

I had released my Investor’s Manifesto couple of years back. Now, here is my fifteen-point stock valuation manifesto that I penned down a few months back though I have been using it as part of my investment process for a few years now.

It is evolving but is something I reflect back on if I ever feel stuck in my stock valuation process. You may modify it to suit your own process and requirements. But this in itself should keep you safe.

Read it. Print it. Face it. Remember it. Practice it.

[Your Name]’s Stock Valuation Manifesto

1. I must remember that all valuation is biased. I will reach the valuation stage after analyzing a company for a few days or weeks, and by that time I’ll already be in love with my idea. Plus, I wouldn’t want my research effort go waste (commitment and consistency). So, I will start justifying valuation numbers.
2. I must remember that no valuation is dependable because all valuation is wrong, especially when it is precise (like target price of Rs 1001 or Rs 857). In fact, precision is the last thing I must look at in valuation. It must be an approximate number, though based on facts and analysis.
3. I must know that any valuation method that goes beyond simple arithmetic can be safely avoided. If I need more than four or five variables or calculations, I must avoid that valuation method.
4. I must use multiple valuation methods (like DCF, Dhandho IV, exit multiples) and then arrive at a broad range of values. Using just a single number or method to identify whether a stock is cheap or expensive is too much oversimplification. So, while simplicity is a good habit, oversimplifying everything may not be so.
5. If I am trying to seek help from spreadsheet based valuation models to tell me whether I should buy, hold, sell, or avoid stocks, I am doing it wrong. Valuation is important, but more important is my understanding of the business and the quality of management. Also, valuation – high or low – should scream at me. So, I may use spreadsheets but keep the process and my underlying thoughts simple.
6. I must remember that value is different from price. And the price can remain above or below value for a long time. In fact, an overvalued (expensive) stock can become more overvalued, and an undervalued (cheap) stock can become more undervalued over time. It seems harsh, but I cannot expect to fight that.
7. I must not take someone else’s valuation number at face value. Instead, I must make my own judgment. After all, two equally well-informed evaluators might make judgments that are wide apart.
8. I must know that methods like P/E (price to earnings) or P/B (price to book value) cannot be used to calculate a business’ intrinsic value. These can only tell me how much a business’ earnings or book value are priced at vis-à-vis another related business. These also show me a static picture or temperature of the stock at a point in time, not how the business’ value has emerged over time and where it might go in the future.
9. I must know that how much ever I understand a business and its future, I will be wrong in my valuation – business, after all, is a motion picture with a lot of thrill and suspense and characters I may not know much about. Only in accepting that I’ll be wrong, I’ll be at peace and more sensible while valuing stuff.
10. I must remember that good quality businesses often don’t stay at good value for a long time, especially when I don’t already own them. I must prepare in advance to identify such businesses (by maintaining a watchlist) and buy them when I see them priced at or near fair values without bothering whether the value will become fairer (often, they do).
11. I must remember that good quality businesses sometimes stay priced at or near fair value after I’ve already bought them, and sometimes for an extended period of time. In such times, it’s important for me to remain focused on the underlying business value than the stock price. If the value keeps rising, I must be patient with the price even if I need to wait for a few years (yes, years!).
12. Knowing that my valuation will be biased and wrong should not lead me to a refusal to value a business at all. Instead, here’s what I may do to increase the probability of getting my valuation reasonably (not perfectly) right –
    
    
    
    • I must stay within my circle of competence and study businesses I understand. I must simply exclude everything that I cannot understand in 30 minutes.
    • I must write down my initial view on the business – what I like and not like about it – even before I start my analysis. This should help me in dealing with the “I love this company” bias.
    • I must run my analysis through my investment checklist. I have seen that a checklist saves life…during surgery and in investing.
    • I must, at all cost, avoid analysis paralysis. If I am looking for a lot of reasons to support my argument for the company, I am anyways suffering from the bias mentioned above.
    • I must use the most important concept in value investing – margin of safety, the concept of buying something worth Rs 100 for much less than Rs 100. Without this, any valuation calculation I perform will be useless. In fact, the most important way to accept that I will be wrong in my valuation is by applying a margin of safety.
13. Ultimately, it’s not how sophisticated I am in my valuation model, but how well I know the business and how well I can assess its competitive advantage. If I wish to be sensible in my investing, I must know that most things cannot be modeled mathematically but has more to do with my own experience in understating businesses.
14. When it comes to bad businesses, I must know that it is a bad investment however attractive the valuation may seem. I love how Charlie Munger explains that – “a piece of turd in a bowl of raisins is still a piece of turd”…and…“there is no greater fool than yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool.”
15. I must get going on valuing good businesses…but when I find that the business is bad, I must exercise my options. Not a call or a put option, but a “No” option. 

https://www.safalniveshak.com/stock-valuation-manifesto/