myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.

Saturday, 16 September 2023

UNITED PLANTATION

British American Tobacco

Maybulk

KEY STOCK DATA

P/E Ratio (TTM)
11.82(09/15/23)
EPS (TTM)
^RM0.03
Market Cap
^RM320.00 M
Shares Outstanding
N/A
Public Float
655.39 M
Yield
5077 is not currently paying a regular dividend.
Latest Dividend
^RM0.00999999978(06/18/15)
Ex-Dividend Date
05/28/15

Will need to take a deeper look into this company?

At best, a turnaround stock.

Study its balance sheet for better understanding.

KEY STOCK DATA

P/E Ratio (TTM)
11.82(09/15/23)
EPS (TTM)
^RM0.03
Market Cap
^RM320.00 M
Shares Outstanding
N/A
Public Float
655.39 M
Yield
5077 is not currently paying a regular dividend.
Latest Dividend
^RM0.00999999978(06/18/15)
Ex-Dividend Date
05/28/15

Parkson

Quality: Poor

Management: -

Valuation: -

Look for another counter to invest.

At best a turnaround stock.

Most turnarounds turn slowly, if at all.

Fraser & Neave

Petronas Dagangan

KEY STOCK DATA

P/E Ratio (TTM)
22.56(09/15/23)
EPS (TTM)
^RM1.00
Market Cap
^RM22.65 B
Shares Outstanding
N/A
Public Float
216.04 M
Yield
3.49%(09/15/23)
Latest Dividend
^RM0.180000007(09/26/23)
Ex-Dividend Date
09/12/23

Friday, 15 September 2023

Nestle

Dutch Lady

Aeon Credit

Excluding the very high PEs and very low PEs at the extremes, its usual historical PE ranged from low PE of 8.3 to high PE of 11.9 and its average or signature PE was 9.8.

At the current price of RM 11.40 per share, it is trading at a PE of 7.08x and its DY is 4.34%.

Hong Leong Bank

2009 to 2022

It EPS grew from 58.28 sen in 2009 to 157.64 sen in 2022. It has grown its EPS 2.7x.

Its EPS grew at a faster rate from 2009 to 2015 (doubling over 6 years) and grew at a slower rate from 2016 to 2022 (EPS increased by about 50%),

Excluding the very high PEs and very low PEs at the extremes, its usual historical PE ranged from low PE of 11.2 to high PE of 16.5 and its average or signature PE was 14.1.

It paid out 35% of its earnings as dividends and grew its earnings by 99.36 sen (157.64 - 58.28 sen). It retained 957.61 sen (1473.01 sen - 515.4 sen). The return on its retained earnings (RORE) is thus, 10.4% (99.36 sen / 1473.01 sen).

Its usual DY ranged from low DY of 2.38% to high DY of 3.12%.

At the current price of RM 19.90 per share, it is trading at a PE of 11.06x and its DY is 2.96%.

MYEG

2009 to 2022

It EPS grew from 0.24 sen in 2009 to 4.72 sen in 2022. It had grown its EPS 19.7x.

Its EPS grew 11.7x, at a fast rate from 0.24 sen in 2009 to 2.8 sen in 2017. Its EPS dropped from 2.8 sen inn 2017 to 2.64 sen in 2018. From 2018, its EPS grew from 2.64 sen to 4,72 sen in 2022; it grew 1.8x.

Its PE expanded from PE of 16.1 in 2009 to PE of 76.6 in 2015. From 2015/16, its PE contracted from this highest PE to PE of 18.4 in 2022.

Excluding the extremely high PEs and extremely low PEs, the usual historical PE for MYEG ranged from low PE of 15.9 to high PE of 25.9 and its average or signature PE was 19.9.

It paid out 27.7% of its earnings as dividends and grew its earnings by 4.72 sen - 0.24 sen = 4.48 sen. It retained 26.94 sen - 7.46 sen = 19.48 sen. The return on its retained earnings is thus, 4.48 sen / 19.48 sen = 23%.

Its usual DY ranged from low DY of 0.83% to high DY of 2.23%.

At the current price of RM 0.79 per share, it is trading at a PE of 14.8x and its DY is 1.91%.

HEIM

From 2009 to 2022, it has grown its earnings per share 2.9 times, from 47 sen to 136.65 sen.

It paid out 99% of its earnings as dividends and despite retaining only 1% of its earnings, it was able to grow its earnings 2.9 times.

At the price of RM 23.56 per share, it is trading at a PE of 18.12x.

Excluding the extremely high PEs and extremely low PEs, the usual historical PE for Heim ranged from 14.8 to high PE of 25.6 and its average PE was 20.5.

Its usual DY ranges 3.33% to 5.26%. At RM 23.56 per share, its DY is 5.86%.

Thursday, 14 September 2023

Apollo

Bonia

Public Bank Berhad

From 2009 to 2022, it has grown its earnings per share 2.26 times, from 13.93 sen to 31.5 sen.

It paid out 48.2% of its earnings as dividends and grew its earnings by 31.5 sen - 13.93 sen = 17.57 sen. It retained 340.44 sen - 164.03 sen = 176.41 sen. The return on its retained earnings is thus, 17.57 sen / 176.41 sen = 9.96%.

At the price of RM 4.14 per share, it is trading at a PE of 12.07x and its DY is 4.35%.

Excluding the extremely high PEs and extremely low PEs, the usual historical PE for PBB ranged from low PE of 13.4 to high PE of 15.7 and its average or signature PE was 14.5.

Its usual DY ranged from low DY of 3.04% to high DY of 4.35%.

IOI

Southern Acid Berhad

Elk-Desa

United Malacca Berhad

MBMR

My 18 points guide to Successfully compounding your money in Stocks

Be a good stock picker.
Think as a business owner.
Always look at value rather than the price. Do the homework.
Buy and hold is alright for selected stocks.
Compounding is your friend, get this to work its magic.
Mr. Market is there to be taken advantage of. Do not be the sucker instead. BFS;STS.
Always buy a lot when the price is low.
Never buy when the stock is overpriced.
It is alright to buy when the selected stock is at a fair price.
Phasing in or dollar cost averaging is safe for such stocks during a downtrend, unless the price is still obviously too high.
Do not time the market for such or any stocks.
By keeping to the above strategy, the returns will be delivered through the growth of the company's business.
So, when do you sell the stock? Almost never, as long as the fundamentals remain sound and the future prospects intact.
The downside risk is protected through only buying when the price is low or fairly priced.
Tactical dynamic asset allocation or rebalancing based on valuation can be employed but this sounds easier than is practical, except in extreme market situations.
Sell urgently when the company business fundamental has deteriorated irreversibly.
You may also wish to sell should the growth of the company has obviously slowed and you can reinvest into another company with greater growth potential of similar quality. However, unlike point 16, you can do so leisurely.
In conclusion, a critical key to successful investing is in your stock picking ability.

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2012/07/my-18-points-guide-to-successfully.html

11 Lessons From Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch taught me:

1. Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.
2. Never invest in any idea you can’t illustrate with a crayon.
3. Over the short term, there may be no correlation between the success of a company’s operations and the success of its stock. Over the long term, there’s a 100% correlation.
4. Buying stocks without studying the companies is the same as playing poker – and never looking at your cards.
5. Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies.
6. Owning stock is like having children. Don’t get involved with more than you can handle.
7. When the insiders are buying, it’s a good sign.
8. Unless you’re a short seller, it never pays to be pessimistic.
9. A stock market decline is as predictable as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you’re prepared, it can’t hurt you.
10. Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach.
11. Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what’s actually happening to the companies in which you’ve invested.

Lynch’s advice had a profound effect on my stock market approach. He taught me that investment success isn’t the result of developing the right macro-economic view or deciding when to jump in or out of the market. Success is about researching companies to identify those that are likely to report positive surprises.

Capital Expenditure

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 25%. Less is better.

Capital Expenditures are expenses on:
- fixed assets such as equipment, property, or industrial buildings
- fixing problems with an asset
- preparing an asset to be used in business
- restoring property
- starting new businesses

A good company will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 50%.

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of less than 25%.

Less is better.

Benjamin Graham's 113 Wise Words

The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons' mistakes of judgement."

Philip Fisher's Wise Words

"The refusal to sell at a loss, while completely natural and normal, is probably one of the most dangerous in which we can indulge ourselves in the entire investment process.

More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could 'at least come out even' than from any other single reason. If to these actual losses are added the profits that might have been made through the proper reinvestment of these funds if such reinvestment had been made when the mistake was first realized, the cost of self-indulgence becomes truly tremendous."

(Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits)

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Here is the overriding primary test, followed by observations on why it is so critically important:

Knowing all that you now know and expect about the company and its stock (not what you originally believed or hoped at time of purchase), and assuming that you had available capital, and assuming that it would not cause a portfolio imbalance to do so, would you buy this stock today, at today's price?

No equivocation. Yes or no?

Answers such as maybe or probably are not acceptable since they are ways of dodging the issue. No investor probably buys a stock; they either place an order or do not.

Here is the implication of your answer to that critical test: if you did not answer with a clear affirmative, you should sell; only if you said a strong yes, are you justified to hold.

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Ideally a stock you plan to purchase should have all of the following charateristics:

• A rising trend of earnings dividends and book value per share.
• A balance sheet with less debt than other companies in its particular industry.
• A P/E ratio no higher than average.
• A dividend yield that suits your particular needs.
• A below-average dividend pay-out ratio.
• A history of earnings and dividends not pockmarked by erratic ups and downs.
• Companies whose ROE is 15 or better.
• A ratio of price to cash flow (P/CF) that is not too high when compared to other stocks in the same industry.

Margin of Safety Concept: Stocks should be bought like groceries, not like perfume

The high CAGR in the early years of the investing period, due to buying at a discount, tended to decline and approach that of the intrinsic EPS GR of the companies over a longer investment time-frame.

Chapter 20 - “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment

A single quote by Graham on page 516 struck me:

Observation over many years has taught us that the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions.

Basically, Graham is saying that most stock investors lose money because they invest in companies that seem good at a particular point in time, but are lacking the fundamentals of a long-lasting stable company.

This seems obvious on the surface, but it’s actually a great argument for thinking more carefully about your individual stock investments. If most of your losses come from buying companies that seem healthy but really aren’t, isn’t that a profound argument for carefully studying any company you might invest in?

Saturday, 16 September 2023

KEY STOCK DATA

P/E Ratio (TTM)

EPS (TTM)

Market Cap

Shares Outstanding

Public Float

Yield

Latest Dividend

Ex-Dividend Date

KEY STOCK DATA

P/E Ratio (TTM)

EPS (TTM)

Market Cap

Shares Outstanding

Public Float

Yield

Latest Dividend

Ex-Dividend Date

KEY STOCK DATA

P/E Ratio (TTM)

EPS (TTM)

Market Cap

Shares Outstanding

Public Float

Yield

Latest Dividend

Ex-Dividend Date

Friday, 15 September 2023

Thursday, 14 September 2023