Friday 26 March 2010

The palm oil paradox

The palm oil paradox

Palm oil is produced from the oil palm, a tropical species from West Africa that is a highly productive and profitable source of vegetable oil. Its origin—West Africa—makes it well-suited to the tropics and therefore an attractive crop to promote rural agricultural development. But oil palm expansion has often come at a cost to the environment — more than half of new plantations established in Malaysia and Indonesia between 1990 and 2005 occurred at the expense of natural forests. As such, palm oil has been targeted by environmentalists and scientists concerned about biodiversity loss, greenhouse gas emissions, and pollution. Further, the palm oil industry has been challenged by land rights issues, since expansion is occurring in areas where communities may traditionally use forests but lack title to land. New development in these areas spurs charges of land-grabbing and can exacerbate social conflict.



There are other ways to mitigate the impact of oil palm expansion. A new review, published in CAB Reviews, examines some of the options, including setting aside high value conservation areas, land-use advocacy, compensating forest carbon stocks and biodiversity, and enhancing regulation and enforcement. Betsy Yaap et al (2010). Mitigating the biodiversity impacts of oil palm development. CAB Reviews: 5, No. 019. (Photo: Data from FAOstat)

Make sure you have a steady cash flow when you retire

19 Mar 2010, 0139 hrs IST, Lovaii Navlakhi,


Retirement is the time when you hang up your boots from the hustle-bustle of daily life, relax, do your own thing. As we say, it’s time to say: "Goodbye tension, hello pension!” Suddenly, from the risk of dying too young, you have transformed yourself to the category where the risk of living too long exists.

The last thing you want to do is to have your money run out before you do. Risks have to be taken in a controlled manner, and post-retirement returns are thus assumed at 1% or maximum 2% p.a. over inflation. During one’s retirement days, the key requirement is safety, liquidity and tax-free returns. It is important to analyse the pros and cons of some of the avenues available to generate cash flow.

Rental Income 

Apart from a self-occupied property, all other real estate investments are made with the objective of either capital appreciation — like the purchase of land — or to generate return on investment, as in the case of rental property. 2008 has been a rude awakening, and we must prepare for the time when rentals may drop, and the property may remain vacant for a few months. Depending on rental income for 100% of one’s needs may be a risk that needs to be mitigated before heading into the retirement days.

Dividend Income 

A few weeks ago, a client approached me to plan some additional investments for his mother who was a retired senior citizen. He did not want to take risks with the investment and during the course of our conversation, we realised that nearly a third of her income was being received by way of dividends. So, while she was averse to risk investing, she was equally reluctant to reduce her shareholding because she was thrilled with the quantum of dividend that she would receive year on year. In this case, there is a need to reduce the risks that this client carries in her portfolio.

Annuities 

In all our retirement planning calculations, we assume a life expectancy of 85 years for males and 90 years for females. However, no one can say today whether that is an under-estimation or an overkill. To do away with this risk, one can consider purchasing of annuities which are paid for your lifetime, and on your expiry, to your spouse. Obviously, if one was to use this as the only source of retirement income, the quantum required to be invested would be large, so it’s best that about a third of one’s retirement requirement is met through this route.

Fixed Income Investments 

Returns on fixed income investments are normally taxable. For the purpose of planning, it may be best to consider these — like senior citizen bonds, post office schemes, fixed deposits — first so that the income is within tax exempt limit for senior citizens — Rs 2.40 lakh per year as per the latest Budget proposals. Practical examples abound which ensure income that is tax-free and carries minimalistic risk for the senior citizen.

(The author is the Managing Director and Chief Financial Planner of International Money Matters Pvt Ltd)



http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Personal-Finance/Savings-Centre/Analysis/Make-sure-you-have-a-steady-cash-flow-when-you-retire/articleshow/5699880.cms

Allocate funds wisely, enjoy your golden years

26 Mar 2010, 0427 hrs IST, Lovaii Navlakhi,


Let us take the case study of a 65-year old and analyse the same. Mrs X has Rs 50 lakh and has invested the same in different products. Each of these has different time horizons and varying rates of return; some are taxable and some are tax-free. Mrs X requires Rs 25,000 pm to manage her lifestyle. 

Regular Cash Flow 

At this moment, she may be quite relaxed as her investments are earning more than her required earnings of Rs 25,000 per month. There could be some issues in terms of regularity of the income, as some of the interest payouts are not monthly. Returns from mutual funds may not be regular too, but in this case is a buffer.

Asset Allocation 

The portfolio of Rs 50 lakh has just 12% of the assets in equity, and hence, is a conservative portfolio considering Mrs X’s age. Since this seems sufficient to meet her goals, we are fine with her investment in fixed income instruments to the extent of 88%. There is, of course, a possibility that Mrs X has a running PPF account in which she can deposit the returns from her equity MFs and continue to earn 8% tax-free returns. As one is aware, the maximum that one can add in a PPF account in a financial year is Rs 70,000.

Taxable Income 

The returns from equity MFs by way of dividends are tax free. The income subject to tax amounts to Rs 3,42,500 for the year. However, Mrs X can take benefit of the Rs 1 lakh invested in ELSS under Section 80C (even investment in PPF can get the same benefit, subject to a maximum of Rs 1 lakh at present), and thus have a taxable income of Rs 2,42,500. Since Rs 2,40,000 of income is exempt for senior citizens, Mrs X will pay a tax on only Rs 2,500 @ 10%. Thus, her returns of 8.3% on her portfolio are virtually tax-free.

Liquidity Analysis 

We assume that Mrs X will live to the age of 90 years, and hence she needs this money to last her for the next 25 years. Prima facie, earning a return of Rs 3 lakh per annum does not seem difficult. However, we have not considered the rate of inflation — if it is 6.5% p.a, the funds will last her 20 years. Further, in case she needs Rs 5 lakh as medical emergency, the money will run out in 18 years. An alternative suggestion to Mrs X will be to increase her equity allocation to 25%, and push her portfolio returns to 9% p.a. That way, her funds last her for 25 years, if inflation remains at 5% p.a.

A financial planner will evaluate the portfolio from multiple perspectives such as returns, risks, liquidity, taxability and even longevity; and approaching one could give you peace of mind, and a greater piece of the action on earth. Get one today!

The author is the MD & Chief Financial Planner of International Money Matters Pvt Ltd. 



http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/5725337.cms

Packers splash out $12 million for pool - tennis court not included

The Packers expand their mansion.




THE super rich don't just have mansions - they have expanding compounds.


James Packer and his wife, Erica, have spent $12 million adding two more houses to their Vaucluse estate.
The Packers' landmark 1972 Guilford Bell-designed house sits on 2374 square metres and cost $18 million last June.

Both the adjoining Vaucluse Road houses are likely to be demolished. This would give the Packers an even bigger lawn with enough room for a relocated pool and underground wing - but possibly not enough for a tennis court.

http://www.watoday.com.au/executive-style/luxury/packers-splash-out-12-million-for-pool--tennis-court-not-included-20100324-qwt5.html

KNM Group: Hold, target price 90 sen

HWANGDBS Vickers Research has maintained a "hold" call on oil and gas firm KNM Group (7164), with a price target of 90 sen.

"Although current share price offers a potential 17 per cent upside to the proposed offer price of 90 sen per share, we are keeping the call at this juncture, having taken into consideration several risk factors," the stockbroker said in a March 23 report.

The risks include a potential lower offer price, a higher risk on earnings; and negative investor's sentiment on the stock.

"To the disappointment of many investors, KNM announced to the exchange at market close yesterday that BlueFire Capital Group (Bidco) has yet to conclude its discussion with the firm," it noted.
The brokerage was referring to the offer from Bidco, an entity controlled by KNM Group's founder Lee Swee Eng and two foreign funds, to buy the entire business and undertakings of KNM Group.

The board of directors of KNM has not extended the exclusivity period granted to Bidco to undertake due diligence and satisfy the other conditions of the proposal, but both parties have agreed "to endeavour" to conclude discussions by April 16.

"We view this news negatively and think this could be a sentiment dampener on the already weak share price. The announcement may raise concerns of whether the proposal will materialise.

"In addition, there is also the possibility of a lower revised offer price from Bidco, considering the provision for foreseeable losses and asset write-downs undertaken by the company in its recent fourth quarter 2009 results announcement," the report said.

http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/bv25e/Article/


Comment:
Two years ago, KNM was riding high.  It was the darling of investors.  Its price was rising at dizzy pace and those who bought the shares gained hugely.  Oil price was high and the industry was bullish.  KNM was well placed to benefit from the industry's good fortune.  It was growing very fast and was actively acquiring companies in related fields.  Though highly profitable with good profit margin, the fast growth required funding with new shareholders' capitals and debt.  Through the many acquisitions, the balance sheet of KNM carries a large non-tangible asset value and debts.  Its biggest acquisition of Borsig was however poorly timed and it coincided with the global financial crisis of 2008.

The oil and gas industry was similarly affected.  The oil price plunged reflecting the supply-demand forces prevailing for this period.  Investment in this industry slowed to a trickle.  Likewise, contracts were canceled, delayed or postponed.   Revenues and earnings in KNM fell substantially.  Though the whole year earning was positive with positive cash flow, the last quarter's earning was a negative; this is worrying.  The management contention that earnings will be positive next year is hardly cast in stone.

There is no doubt that KNM's business fundamentals has deteriorated.  The questions posed:


  • Will this be temporary or will this be permanent?
  • How long will the oil and gas sector take to recover, and with it KNM's fortune?
  • Will KNM be able to service and pay its debts with its present level of earnings?
  • Will KNM survive this trying period to emerge strong again after this period?


At a price of 80 sen per share, KNM's market capitalization was around MR 3 billions.  Its NAV is just below 50 sen.  It's market price is still at a premium to its NAV.  More interestingly, or worrying, its NTA is just about 4.7 sen, reflecting the large amount of goodwill in its balance sheet.

The offer to take KNM private at around 90 sen has introduced another factor into the pricing of KNM shares.  If not for this (still an uncertain) offer, the price of KNM might be much lower in the market.

However, for those looking to buy into KNM, given the large uncertainty and risk, a discount of less than 20% to the 90 sen based on the present price is hardly enticing.   Should you sell then?  The upside is at best capped but there is also significant downside risk if the offer to take it private did not materialise at 90 sen.  Your assessment of the upside reward/downside risk ratio would guide you to make this decision.

Video: Is the stock market overvalued?


Thursday 25 March 2010

Maybank proposes shareholders reinvest dividends into shares


Written by Joseph Chin   
Thursday, 25 March 2010 20:24


KUALA LUMPUR: MALAYAN BANKING BHD [] has proposed a recurrent and optional dividend reinvestment plan that allows shareholders to reinvest their dividend into new ordinary shares of the bank.

It said on Thursday, March 25 the plan was part of its efforts to enhance and maximise shareholders’ value via the subscription of new Maybank shares.

Maybank said the issue price of a new Maybank share would at a discount of not more than 10% to the five-day volume weighted average market price of the shares immediately prior to the price fixing date.

"The reinvestment plan will provide the shareholders with greater flexibility in meeting their investment objectives, as they would have the choice of receiving cash or reinvesting in the company through subscription of additional Maybank shares without having to incur material transaction or other related costs," it said.



http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/162382-maybank-proposes-shareholders-reinvest-dividends-into-shares.html

Stock Investing Tips For Beginners – Making Sound Investment Decisions


Much of my investment strategies are derived from fundamental investing and value investing. I adopt strategies similar to Warren Buffett not simply because he is a well known investor but because they make the most sense to me.
That is the key to successful stock investing. Do not listen to anyone just because you think he is more experienced in stock investing then you are. Rather, seek to think and analyze and read more on your own before deciding which strategy best suits you. Once you have developed your own investment philosophy, stick to it and trust only yourself.
My Investment Philosophy
1. Do not lose money.
As many people already know, Warren Buffett famously put forth his two rules in stock investing in a humorous way in which Rule number 1 is "Never Lose money" while rule number 2 is " Do not forget rule number 1".
Capital preservation is important because a stock that has lost half its value will need to double in value before you get back to where you started. That is why you must be extremely cautious in your choice of stocks and that brings us to rule number 2.
2. Having a Margin of Safety
The margin of safety, simply put is a buffer that you put in place between what you perceive to be the value of the stock and its price. If you value a stock to be worth 1 dollar and you only buy it if its price is 50cents, then your margin of safety is 50 percent.
Deciding how much margin of safety you should give to a stock varies for companies in different industries and is another topic in itself.
In summary, a margin of safety is necessary to protect your capital in case you were wrong in your initial assessment of a stock pick. That way, even if you were wrong, you would have purchased the stock at a much lower price then if you had not catered for a margin of safety.
3. Invest for the Long Term
There is no way to time the market, but many people seem to think other wise. They buy when the stock dips slightly and hopes that in the near future they can sell it for a profit. These people usually adopt a "hit and run" strategy where they are contented with making a few 100 dollars every time they make a trade. They also have a cut loss strategy where they will exit the market if the price drops beyond a certain amount within days of purchasing the stock.
The truth about the stocks market is that real money is made in a few days. If you are frequently entering and exiting the market, chances are that during the few days of a real rally in price, you won't be in the market, thus missing out on earnings.
Investing for the long term also saves you on commissions paid to the broker, capital gain taxes and puts the power of compounding into play. The difference between trading in the market and buying for the long term is significant and should not be ignored.
4. Knowing when to sell and when not to sell
Even though I advocate investing for the long term, that doesn't mean holding on to my investments forever. When I value a stock, I already have in mind how much the stock is worth and therefore already have an exit price in mind. The purpose of value investing is to purchase this stock at a significant discount from its value.
However, there could be times when the market is euphoric and the price of the stock surges way beyond what I have valued it at. At this point of time, I will reassess the company to see if I have left out any key news or factors which could be responsible for the increase in price. If my asessment of the company remains the same, I will sell the stock because there is no reason why I should not take advantage of the insanity of the market.
It is important not to be greedy at this point of time and keep increasing the exit price you have set. Have an exit price and stick to it.
The reverse is true also. Most people panic and sell when the price drops and that doesn't make sense. When the price of a stock drops, check the fundamentals again. If nothing has changed, then your assessment of its value should be the same and this means that the stock is at an even greater discount then what you have previously bought at. In this case, you should take the opportunity to buy in more of this stock.
5. Keeping Cash with you when there are no good stocks to buy
There are many reasons for keeping cash with you when there are no good stocks to buy. Many people find it difficult to do that. The moment they have some cash in hand they want to buy some stocks because if they don't, they feel that they are not in the market and thus not "investing".
Also, keeping cash with you allows you to capitalize on sudden dips in the stock prices due to some market fluctuations which are not resulted from a change in the companies fundamentals. In these cases, you should average down and purchase more of that stock. The worst thing that can happen to you is not having cash to average down on a purchase which has now presented a greater discount then before, due to your need to always keep all your money in the market to "feel that you are investing".
Summary
Investing is not just about the buying of stocks. The homework and preparation behind identifying which stock to buy is the true key factor for successful stock picking. Many people spend alot of their time checking the prices of the stocks they have purchased several times a day. That time is better spent researching the company and its business. Ultimately, checking the price of a stock several times a day will have no influence on the price and the companies fundamentals. But I am sure many people are guilty of this, as I so clearly see in my workplace, where everybody has a small window opened up to check the stock prices every now and then.
To read more stock investing tips and strategies written in a clear and concise way for layman and beginners to get started, visit http://www.stockinvestingcentral.com.
Author: Jax Woon
Article Source: EzineArticles.com
Provided by: Make PCB Assembly

Peter Lynch's 6 categories of stocks: Summing it up

Summing it up

That wraps up our practical introduction to Peter Lynch's six stock categories;

  • slow growers (sluggards), 
  • medium growers (stalwarts), 
  • fast growers, 
  • cyclicals, 
  • turnarounds and 
  • asset plays. 
These are only a guide, as companies won't always fit neatly into a single category, and the same company may move through several categories over the course of its life.

The biggest risk for investors is mis-categorising a stock.Buying a stock which you think is a fast grower, for example, only to find out a couple of years down the track that it is really a cyclical, is a chastening experienceAnd your own life situation and risk tolerance should dictate the weightings of each category in your portfolio.

If you've found these distinctions helpful, you might find it worthwhile heading to the source, Lynch's easy-to-read One Up on Wall Street.


Click:




Peter Lynch's 6 categories of stocks: Sluggards and Stalwarts

Peter Lynch's 6 categories of stocks: Asset Plays

Asset plays the last piece in the puzzle

GREG HOFFMAN
February 26, 2010

Over the past two weeks we've been on a tour of the way legendary US investor Peter Lynch classified stocks in his classic book, One up on Wall Street. Now, like the end of a game of Trivial Pursuit, we'll fill in the last piece of pie: asset plays.

The idea with asset plays is to identify untapped or unappreciated assets. These situations can arise for several reasons. A good historical example was Woodside Petroleum in the early part of this decade.

At the time, Woodside's annual profits didn't fully reflect its long-term earnings power. On 5 September 2003 (Long Term Buy - $13.40) our resources analyst enthused: ''It's hard to contain our excitement about the sheer quality of Woodside's assets, and we find dissecting the latest set of entrails (accounts) far less revealing than thinking about how things may play out at Woodside over the next five to 10 years or more.''

He was right, and those who followed his advice have so far more than tripled their money. Yet there was no magic involved. Woodside's enormous reserves and long-term contracts were there for all to see. But you needed to look past the then rather meagre profits and make an investment in the future potential of these assets.

''Recency bias''

It's easy to fall victim to ''recency bias'' in the sharemarket; placing far too much emphasis on the most recent financial results and not focusing on where a business is heading long term. Sometimes an asset play is plain enough to see but investors, for whatever reason, choose to ignore it. In the case of bombed-out SecureNet it was because everyone had sworn off ``tech stocks''.

On 26 July 2002 (Buy - $0.81), we pointed out that, ''SecureNet has an estimated $90-$92m cash in the bank, very little debt and 76m shares on issue. That means that were the company to return this cash to shareholders, each share would entitle the holder to about $1.18. That's 46% above the current market price. So, as long as the company isn't burning too much cash and management doesn't waste the money, at these prices it looks like a no-brainer.''

The company was taken over 12 months later by American group beTRUSTed at more than $1.50 per share, fully valuing the group's cash plus its IT security business. SecureNet was a classic asset play in the tradition of Benjamin Graham (author of our company's namesake, The Intelligent Investor in 1949).

Graham was a legendary investor and teacher (his most famous student being Warren Buffett) and, among other strategies, advocated buying stocks when they were available at less than their ''net cash assets'' (their cash balance less all liabilities) as SecureNet was.

RHG is a more recent example. Having steered our members clear of what proved to be a disastrous float, we ran the numbers as the stock price plummeted during the credit crisis and a clear picture began to emerge.

With a healthy portion of the group's multi-billion dollar loan book financed in the boom times by income-hungry funds at fixed margins, RHG was set to make hundreds of millions in profit as these loans were repaid. By our calculations, these profits would bring the group's total value to somewhere close to $1 per share.

At the depths of despair in June 2008, RHG shares changed hands for less than 5 cents each (several of our members report being happy buyers on that very day). That valued the company at less than $20m; an astonishing figure for a group that not two months later, would report a full year profit of $125m.

The stock now trades north of 60 cents and was a wonderful holding to have through early 2009 as it soared while most other stocks sank. And that's the beauty of a well-selected asset play; under the right circumstances it can offer a degree of protection to your portfolio.

Summing it up

That wraps up our practical introduction to Peter Lynch's six stock categories;

  • slow growers, 
  • stalwarts, 
  • fast growers, 
  • cyclical, 
  • turnarounds and 
  • asset plays. 
These are only a guide, as companies won't always fit neatly into a single category, and the same company may move through several categories over the course of its life.

The biggest risk for investors is mis-categorising a stock. Buying a stock which you think is a fast grower, for example, only to find out a couple of years down the track that it is really a cyclical, is a chastening experience. And your own life situation and risk tolerance should dictate the weightings of each category in your portfolio.

If you've found these distinctions helpful, you might find it worthwhile heading to the source, Lynch's easy-to-read One Up on Wall Street, which is number two on the reading list we provide to members of The Intelligent Investor when they first join up.

Next week I'll take you through some of the other books on that list. They're a great education.

This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 282288).
Greg Hoffman is research director of The Intelligent Investor which provides independent advice to sharemarket investors

http://www.businessday.com.au/business/asset-plays-the-last-piece-in-the-puzzle-20100226-p7lc.html

Peter Lynch's 6 categories of stocks: Turnaround Stocks

Turnaround stocks: The pleasure and pain

GREG HOFFMAN
February 24, 2010


In this fourth instalment of a five-part series, we'll examine turnarounds; a category beginner investors should be very careful of.

Like ice cream, turnarounds come in many varieties. The mildest form is the ''little-problem-we-didn't-anticipate'' kind of turnaround typified by Brambles' loss of 15 million pallets in Europe a few years ago.

Another is Aristocrat Leisure, which I recommended to The Intelligent Investor's members in June 2003 at $1.15 with the following quotes, fittingly, from Peter Lynch: ''Turnaround stocks make up lost ground very quickly'' and ''the occasional major success makes the turnaround business very exciting, and very rewarding overall.''

While I'm proud to have steered members into this great stock in its darkest days, I recommended people begin taking money off the table far too early in the turnaround process, beginning in March 2004 at $2.73 having recorded a gain of ''only'' 137%, when much more was to come. Thankfully we were recently given another bite at the cherry (as I explained in Betting on prosperous times).

Perfectly good company

Another category of turnaround is the perfectly-good-company-inside-a-troubled-one. I missed AMP in its ''lost years'', because I wasn't comfortable enough with the complexities of life insurance accounting to take the plunge. But Miller's Retail (now Specialty Fashion Group) provided an opportunity at its 2005 nadir, with progress in its women's apparel business being clouded by problems in its discount variety division.

Those brave enough to draw breath and buy the stock when I upgraded in May 2005 at 68.5 cents per share were rewarded with a 148% return in just 10 months before we sold in March 2006 at $1.70 (although the stock had provided a painful ride down prior to its relatively sudden resurrection).

Potential fatalities are probably the most uncomfortable type of turnaround. They can be explosive on both the up- and down-side.

My analysis of timber group Forest Enterprises on 8 March 2002 (Speculative Buy - $0.12) began: ''This company could go broke. But we're about to recommend you buy some shares in it.''

It may shock you that a conservative service like The Intelligent Investor could ever recommend a stock which has a significant chance of going to zero. But if the profit potential is large enough, and the percentage chance of it materialising is great enough, then we're prepared to risk a prudent percentage of our portfolios in a potential wipe-out situation.

Probability is the key

The key to turnarounds is to think about them in terms of probabilities. With Forest Enterprises back in March 2002, my probability calculation would have looked something like the accompanying table. (see below)

The stock ran even further after I recommended our members sell at 35 cents in April 2004, but that advice to sell quoted the words of famed American financier Bernard Baruch: ''Don't try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can't be done except by liars.'' We were content with a near tripling of our initial outlay in just over two years.

The Intelligent Investor's sell-side record is a bit embarrassing on these turnarounds - tending to sell far too early. But buying is by far the riskiest part. Get one of these investments wrong and you could well be staring at a financial fatality - a ''bagel'', in the parlance of Wall Street.

Don't worry, though. You can live a rich and rewarding investing life without ever going near a turnaround situation in the sharemarket. You could also say the same about the final stock category we'll turn to on Friday: Asset plays. But asset plays appeal to a certain type of investor (I, for one, love 'em) and can offer great returns often with a good deal of underlying protection.

This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 282288).
Greg Hoffman is research director of The Intelligent Investor which provides independent advice to sharemarket investors.

The numbers...

http://www.businessday.com.au/business/markets/turnaround-stocks-the-pleasure-and-pain-20100224-p2pt.html

Peter Lynch's 6 categories of stocks: Cyclical Stocks

The pitfalls and profits of cyclical stocks

GREG HOFFMAN
February 22, 2010

Famous American investor Peter Lynch, in his great book ‘‘One Up On Wall Street’’, described how he split stocks into six different categories. In my previous two columns we covered sluggards, stalwarts and fast growers.

Now it’s time to move on to cyclicals which, along with the two categories we’ll cover on Wednesday and Friday, can offer lucrative opportunities. But they can also deliver crushing financial blows if you get them wrong.

If the sharemarket were a sporting competition, these stocks would be reserved for "first grade" players only. The market, though, is not like that. Beginners can quite easily lose their life savings on a cyclical stock bought at its peak, or on a turnaround that doesn’t turn around.

Most companies have a cyclical element to their operations. Even so-called defensive businesses benefit to some degree from a booming economy and suffer when things turn sour. But those particularly exposed to the ebbs and flows of a business cycle are known as cyclicals.

Retailers, vulnerable to fluctuations in discretionary consumer spending, are a good example. When unemployment or interest rates rise and consumers tighten their purse strings, they are hit hard. Shares in David Jones more than halved in the 14 months between December 2007 and February 2009. Then, as consumer confidence returned, they doubled over the ensuing 12 months.

There are also industry-specific cycles. Steelmaking and air travel can be deeply affected by movements in the supply and demand of their international marketplaces. The same is true of mining and related services groups, whose fortunes are much more tied to global economic conditions than to the local scene.

So, how does one spot a cheap cyclical stock?

A low price-to-earnings ratio (PER) often catches our eye at The Intelligent Investor. Yet this isn’t necessarily an opportunity with cyclical; it could be a trap. The fluctuating nature of a cyclical stock’s profits means they can appear superficially cheap, just as their earnings are about to fall off a cliff.

BlueScope Steel provided a classic example in 2007. Back then one of The Intelligent Investor’s researchers summed up his analysis like this: "The PER of 11.3 and the dividend yield of 4.4 per cent are deceptive and the stock would need to be a lot cheaper to offer a margin of safety. SELL."

BlueScope’s share price has since fallen by more than 75 per cent. Low PERs are not reliable indicators of value, especially when it comes to cyclical stocks.

To profit from cyclicals, you should seek them out at the point of maximum pessimism, when you’ve noticed signs that the underlying cycle is improving but the share price is still wallowing. Cyclicals aren’t the type of stocks you want to hold forever, though. And bear in mind that selling cyclicals too early can be uncomfortable.

Take my "Buy" recommendation on Leighton Holdings (something of a mix between a cyclical and a fast grower) at a low of $7.83 in May 2004. Less than two years later the stock was trading at $17.70 and I called on our members to take their 126 per cent profit (plus dividends) and run. Yet the stock price continued to soar throughout the resources boom, making my sell call look far too conservative, if not foolish.

A strong cycle can carry profits and stock prices further than you might imagine. But we must guard against greed becoming the dominant factor in any investment decision. While exiting a cyclical too early can lead to ‘seller’s regret’, getting out too late can be extremely hazardous to your wealth.

So one needs an understanding not just of the cycles affecting a stock but also of the expectations built into its share price at any point in time. When it comes to predicting cyclical turning points, I'm reminded of the quip that economists have predicted seven of the last three recessions – so don’t believe everything you read.

This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 282288).

Greg Hoffman is research director of The Intelligent Investor which provides independent advice to sharemarket investors.

http://www.businessday.com.au/business/the-pitfalls-and-profits-of-cyclical-stocks-20100222-oqi4.html

Peter Lynch's 6 categories of stocks: Fast Growers

Stalking the ten-bagger

GREG HOFFMAN
February 19, 2010

In Wednesday's column, we looked at what are generally less risky stock categories - sluggards and stalwarts. But what about the potential ten-bagger - a stock that rises by 10 or more times the price you paid for it?

Peter Lynch, the famous 1980s American fund manager and author, terms such stocks fast growers. Naturally, they're notoriously difficult to pick, inhabiting a land of broken dreams and expensive investment lessons for those too quick to put their faith in a good but elusive story.

The traps are numerous and deep. There are plenty of fast-growing industries - airlines, for example - that have been graveyards for investors. So it's vital to ascertain whether the company you have in your sights really has a sustainable competitive advantage.

Many a blistering growth stock has been lifted on the back of a single, hot product. Ballistics company Metal Storm was a favourite a few years ago, as was animal-focused biotech Chemeq; both ended up crashing spectacularly.

So it's crucial that you understand the risks and allocate your portfolio accordingly. Don't place all your hopes on one hot product.

And always make sure the company is delivering growth in earnings per share as well as net profit. It's too easy to grow net profit by raising more money from shareholders; double the amount of money you have in a plain old savings account and you'll double its ``profits''. What counts is growth in earnings on a per share basis.

Time to bale

The time to bale out is when you think the business might be maturing or saturating its market and no-one else has noticed. And, yes, unfortunately that is as hard as it sounds.

You should also pay heed to the loss of any key executives. Ten-baggers are often driven by one key entrepreneur like Chris Morris at Computershare, or a small team of motivated individuals, as is the case at QBE Insurance. If they're jumping ship then you might consider joining them.

As for retailers - often fast growers when they initially list - it's crucial to keep an eye on the same-store sales figure. When this number drops off it can be a sign that the concept is getting tired or that competition is staring to bite, even as profitability continues to grow through new store rollouts.

Is this 'nuts'?

More positively, the prices of these stocks can sometimes get way ahead of themselves and that's a good time to think about taking some or all of your money off the table.

Good examples would include Harvey Norman, Flight Centre and Cochlear back in 2001. All are great companies and, generally speaking, I'd be a happy holder (if not a buyer) of them, but there comes a point where you just have to say ''this is nuts''.

What constitutes a ''nutty'' price? It's difficult to say, but as Justice Potter Stewart once opined in the US Supreme Court on the subject of pornography: ''I shall not today attempt further to define the kinds of material I understand to be embraced within that shorthand description; and perhaps I could never succeed in intelligibly doing so. But I know it when I see it.''

Be warned though: Too many high valuations can make one blasé. In the boom years, investors routinely paid price/earnings ratios of 16, 18 and even 20 for fairly mediocre business. As with many aspects of investing, success is determined by the price you pay to buy in, more than the price at which you sell to get out.

Next on our agenda is a tour through the land of cyclicals, then turnarounds and, finally, asset plays. Each has the potential to provide exciting returns and excruciating losses, so stay tuned.

This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 282288).
Greg Hoffman is research director of The Intelligent Investor which provides independent advice to sharemarket investors.

http://www.businessday.com.au/business/stalking-the-tenbagger-20100219-okuj.html