Sunday 8 August 2010

Country P/E Ratios and GDP Growth

Jun. 23, 2010

Chart

If you take stock markets' price to earnings ratio and divide it by their expected growth, then interestingly China and Russia, two of the BRICs turn up as the cheapest stock markets based on this PEG (PE/Growth) method. Obviously growth estimates can be wrong, but this at least opens up the debate:

Bespoke:
Above are the PEG ratios for 22 countries around the world. For each country, we use the trailing 12-month P/E ratio for the index shown as well as estimated 2010 GDP growth. As shown, Russia and China have the lowest country PEG ratios at 1.86 and 1.90, respectively. Russia has a very low P/E at 8 and decent estimated GDP growth at 4.3%. China, on the other hand, has a rather high P/E ratio at 19.24, but its GDP growth is also very high at 10.10%. The US is right in the middle of the pack with a PEG of 5.07. Our neighbors to the south rank just above the US with a PEG of 3.85, while our neighbors to the north rank just below the US at 5.67.

http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-is-the-cheapest-market-based-on-growth-2010-6#ixzz0w02Qccax


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January 28, 2010




Many investors use the PEG Ratio as a valuation tool these days because it puts a company's growth prospects into perspective along with the widely followed price to earnings ratio. The PEG ratio is the P/E Ratio over the Growth Rate, and a PEG of less than one is generally considered good.

In this regard, Bespoke created "PEG" ratios for a number of countries using the P/E ratio of each country's main equity market index along with 2010 estimated GDP growth rates. Just as with stocks, the lower the country PEG, the more attractive.

As shown, India has the best PEG out of the countries we analyzed. It has a P/E ratio of 26.19 and estimated 2010 GDP growth of 8%. While its P/E isn't as low as a lot of countries, its growth rate is very high. China ranks 2nd with a PEG of 3.66.

The U.S. ranks in the middle of the pack with a P/E of 24.53 and estimated GDP growth of 2.6%.

At the bottom of the list sits Switzerland, Italy, and the UK, while Australia, Japan, and Spain have negative PEGs due to either a negative P/E Ratio or negative estimated GDP growth.


http://protect-your-assets.blogspot.com/2010/01/country-pe-ratios-and-gdp-growth.html

Bullbear Stock Investing Notes

Economic PEG = (P/E) / (100*GDP growth)

Where do you think the market is headed?

100_year_market_with_pe

Value Investment is a Risk-Averse Approach








Conclusion
Fundamental Analysis is a structured and formal approach to research on a stock's value and its potential growth. This analytical procedure facilitates the identification of overvalued and undervalued stocks relative to their earnings potential, dividend income potential and to their asset values, against the backdrop of the economic and industry environment. On the basis of the research, investment decisions are made such that the odds are stacked in favour of the Fundamental Analyst.


FINDING INFORMATION
- There are various sources of information. The most accessible are:

- The company’s annual report

- SGX’s Pulses Magazine

- The Company’s Website

- ShareInvestor.com

- Yahoo.com

- Reuters.com

- Bloomberg.com

- Your friendly stockbroker’s research report



EVALUATING THE INFORMATION

Cash flow Evaluation – this indicates the long-term viability of a business

- Profit Growth. Can the company and its business grow revenue (sunset, star, Porter’s model)

- Managing debt and expenses e.g., Keppel Corp manages its debt well and SIA its expenses.

- Value Investing. Undervalued situations use discount to book value where share price is compared to the stock’s intrinsic value

- Cash Cow. Look for cash generating companies, and dividend policy, eg Haw Par Healthcare, SPH, Chuan Hup, SembMarine, Keppel Corp

- Management, governance, execution, good and poor (foul-up)



PER SHARE VALUATION

Often, analysts and fund managers look at stock valuation. The most common terms used are :

- Earnings per share or EPS

- Price to earnings ratio or PER

- Price earnings ratio to growth or PEG

- Net tangible asset per share or NTA

- Dividend per share or DPS

- Dividend yield per share or DPS/price



http://www.sias.org.sg/beginnerguide/03_02_Fundamental_Analysis.html

Bullbear Stock Investing Notes

How China's Dollar Peg Works





http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8320.html

Bullbear Stock Investing Notes

Sentiment Curve

Knowing about the psychological biases is not enough. You must also have a strategy for overcoming them.



Battling Your Biases


Remember the day-trader cartoon in Chapter 1? The roller coaster called "The Day Trader" represents the modern investment environment. The roller coaster has dramatic highs and lows. As a modern-day investor, you can experience strong emotional highs and lows. This emotional roller coaster has a tendency to enhance your natural psychological biases. Ultimately, this can lead to bad investment decisions.

The previous chapter began the discussion of how to overcome your psychological biases. It introduced two strategies of exerting self-control: rules of thumb and envi­ronment control. This chapter proposes strategies for controlling your environment and gives you specific rules of thumb that focus you on investing for long-term wealth and on avoiding short-term pitfalls caused by decisions based on emotions.

The first strategy was proposed in Chapter 1: Understand the psychological biases. We have discussed many biases in this book. You may not remember each bias and how it affects you (due to cognitive dissonance and other memory biases—see Chapter 10), so reviewing them here should be beneficial. In fact, to help you make wise investments long after reading this book, you should re-familiarize yourself with these biases next month, next year, and every year.


STRATEGY 1: UNDERSTAND YOUR PSYCHOLOGICAL BIASES




In this book, there are three categories of psychological biases: not thinking clearly, letting emotions rule, and functioning of the brain. Let's review the biases in each category.

(a)  Not Thinking Clearly

Your past experiences can lead to specific behaviors that harm your wealth. For example, you are prone to attribute past investment success to your skill at investing. This leads to the psychological bias of overconfidence. Overconfidence causes you to trade too much and to take too much risk. As a consequence, you pay too much in commissions, pay too much in taxes, and are susceptible to big losses.

The attachment bias causes you to become emotionally attached to a security. You are emotionally attached to your parents, siblings, children, and close friends. This attachment causes you to focus on their good traits and deeds. You also tend to discount or ignore their bad traits and deeds. When you become emotionally attached to a stock, you also fail to recognize bad news about the company.

When taking an action is in your best interest, the endowment bias and status quo bias cause you to do nothing. When securities are given to you, you tend to keep them instead of changing them to an investment that meets your needs. You also procrastinate on making important decisions, like contributing to your 401(k) plan.

In the future, you should review these psychological biases.

(b)  Letting Emotions Rule

Emotions get in the way of making good investment decisions. For example, your desire to feel good about yourself—seeking pride— causes you to sell your winners too soon. Trying to avoid regret causes you to hold your losers too long. The consequences are that you sell the stocks that perform well and keep the stocks that perform poorly. This hurts your return and causes you to pay higher taxes.

When you are on a winning streak, you may feel like you are playing with the house's money. The feeling of betting with someone else's money causes you to take too much risk. On the other hand, losing causes emotional pain. The feeling of being snake bit causes you to want to avoid this emotional pain in the future. To do this, you avoid taking risks entirely by not owning any stocks. However, a diversified portfolio of stocks should be a part of everyone's total investment portfolio. Experiencing a loss also causes you to want to get even. Unfortunately, this desire to get even clouds your judgment and induces you to take risks you would not ordinarily take.

And finally, your need for social validation causes you to bring your investing interests into your social life. You like to talk about investing. You like to listen to others talk about investingOver time, you begin to misinterpret other people's opinions as investment fact. On an individual level, this leads to investment decisions based on rumor and emotions. On a societal level, this leads to price bubbles in our stock market.


(c) Functioning of the Brain


The manner in which the human brain functions can cause you to think in ways that induce problems. For example, people use mental accounting to compartmentalize individual investments and categorize costs and benefits. While mental accounting can help you exert self-control to not spend money you are saving, it also keeps you from properly diversifying. The consequence is that you assume more risk than necessary to achieve your desired return.

To avoid regret about previous decisions that did not turn out well, the brain filters the information you receive. This process, called cognitive dissonance, adjusts your memory about the information and changes how you recall your previous decision. Obviously, this will reduce your ability to properly evaluate and monitor your investment choices.

The brain uses shortcuts to reduce the complexity of analyzing information. These shortcuts allow the brain to generate an estimate of the answer before fully digesting all the available information. For example, the brain makes the assumption that things that share similar qualities are quite alike. Representativeness is judgment based on stereotypes. Furthermore, people prefer things that have some familiarity to them. However, these shortcuts also make it hard for you to correctly analyze new information, possibly leading to inaccurate conclusions. Consequently, you put too much faith in stocks of companies that are familiar to you or represent qualities you desire.

This review of the psychological biases should help you with the first strategy of understanding your psychological biases. However, as Figure 15.1 suggests, knowing about the biases is not enough. You must also have a strategy for overcoming them.



The Investment Environment.

"Y



THE EFFECTS OF YOUR PSYCHOLOGICAL BIASES (CONTINUED).
Psychological
Effect on

Table
Bias
Investment Behavior
Consequence
15.1

Get Even

Take too much risk

Susceptible to big


trying to break even
losses


Social Validation

Feel that it must be

Participate in a price

good if others are in-
bubble which ulti-


vesting in the security
mately causes you to buy high and sell low


Mental

Fail to diversify

Not receiving the

Accounting

highest return possible for the level of risk taken


Cognitive

Ignore information that

Reduces your ability to
Dissonance
conflicts with prior
evaluate and monitor


beliefs and decisions
your investment choices


Representativeness

Think things that seem

Purchase overpriced


similar must be alike.
stocks


So a good company must


be a goodinvestment.



Familiarity

Think companies that

Failure to diversify


you know seem better
and put too much


and safer
faith in the company in which you work



STRATEGY 2: KNOW WHY YOU ARE INVESTING


You should be aware of the reasons you are investing. Most investors largely overlook this simple step of the investing process, having only some vague notion of their investment goals: "I want a lot of money so that I can travel abroad when I retire." "I want to make the money to send my kids to college." Sometimes people think of vague goals in a negative form: "I don't want to be poor when I retire." These vague notions do little to give you investment direction. Nor do they help you avoid the psychological biases that inhibit good decision making. It is time to get specific. Instead of a vague notion of wanting to travel after retirement, be specific. Try


A minimum of $75,000 of income per year in retirement would allow me to make two international trips a year. Since I will receive $20,000 a year in Social Security and retirement benefits, I will need $55,000 in investment income. Investment earnings from $800,000 would generate the desired income. I want to retire in 10 years.


Having specific goals gives you many advantages. For example, by keeping your eye on the reason for the investing, you will


■     Focus on the long term and look at the "big picture"


■     Be able to monitor and measure your progress


■     Be able to determine if your behavior matches your goals


For example, consider the employees of Miller Brewing Company who were hoping to retire early (discussed in Chapter 11). They had all their 401(k) money invested in the company stock, and the price of the stock fell nearly 60%. When you lose 60%, it takes a 150% return to recover the losses. It could easily take the Miller employees many years to recover the retirement assets. What are the conse quences for these employees? Early retirement will probably not be an option.


Investing in only one company is very risky. You can earn great returns or suffer great losses. If the Miller employees had simply compared the specific consequences of their strategy to their specific investment goals, they would have identified the problem. In this type of situation, which option do you think is better?


A.  Invest the assets in a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds
that will allow a comfortable retirement in two years.


B.   Invest the assets in the company stock, which will either earn
a high return and allow a slightly more comfortable
retirement in two years, or suffer losses which will delay
retirement for seven years.


Whereas option A meets the goals, option B gambles five years of work for a chance to exceed the goal and is not much different than placing the money on the flip of a coin.


STRATEGY 3: HAVE QUANTITATIVE INVESTMENT CRITERIA


Having a set of quantitative investment criteria allows you to avoid investing on emotion, rumor, stories, and other psychological biases. It is not the intent of this book to recommend a specific investment strategy like value investing or growth investing. There are hundreds of books that describe how to follow a specific style of investing. Most of these books have quantitative criteria.


Here are some easy-to-follow investment criteria:


■    Positive earnings


■    Maximum P/E ratio of 50


■    Minimum sales growth of 15%


■    A minimum of five years of being traded publicly


If you are a value investor, then a P/E maximum of 20 may be more appropriate. A growth investor may set the P/E maximum at 80 and increase the sales growth minimum to 25%. You can also use criteria like profit margin and PEG ratio, or you can even look at whether the company is a market share leader in sales.


Just as it is important to have specific investing goals, it is important to write down specific investment criteria. Before buying a stock, compare the characteristics of the company to your criteria. If it doesn't meet your criteria, don't invest!


Consider the Klondike Investment Club of Buffalo, Wyoming, discussed in Chapter 7. The club's number one ranking stems in part from its making buy decisions only after an acceptable research report has been completed. Klondike's criteria have protected its members from falling prey to their psychological biases. On the other hand, the California Investors Club's lack of success is due partially to the lack of criteria. Its decision process leads to buy decisions that are ultimately controlled by emotion.


I am not suggesting that qualitative information is unimportant. Information on the quality of a company's management or the types of new products under development can be useful. If a stock meets your quantitative criteria, then you should next examine these quali tative factors.


STRATEGY 4: DIVERSIFY


The old adage in real estate is that there are three important criteria when buying property: location, location, location. The investment adage should be very similar: diversify, diversify, diversify.


It is not likely that you will diversify in a manner suggested by modern portfolio theory and discussed in Chapter 9. However, if you keep some simple diversification rules in mind, you can do well.


■   Diversify by owning many different types of stocks. You can be reasonably well diversified with 15 stocks that are from different industries and of different sizes. One diversified mutual fund would do it too. However, a portfoilio of 50 technology stocks is not a diversified portfolio, nor is one of five technology mutual funds.


■    Own very little of the company you work for. You already have your human capital invested in your employer—that is, your income is dependent on the company. So diversify your whole self by avoiding that company in your investments.


■    Invest in bonds, too. A diversified portfolio should also have some bonds or bond mutual funds in it.


Diversifying in this way helps you to avoid tragic losses that can truly affect your life. Additionally, diversification is a shield against the psychological biases of attachment and familiarity.



http://www.physcomments.org/THE-INVESTMENT-ENVIRONMENT/functioning-of-investment-choices-the-brain2.html

Bullbear Stock Investing Notes

Saturday 7 August 2010

Performance fees warning

By Melanie Wright 

Investors are being warned about paying over the odds for average performance on a new breed of funds – funds that pay performance fees to their managers.
Peter Hargreaves, the outspoken chief of financial advisers Hargreaves Lansdown, has lambasted performance fees, saying they were designed to benefit only the manager and provided no advantages for investors.
One of Mr Hargreaves' main criticisms was that while managers that charge performance fees benefit when their funds do well, there is no penalty when funds do badly.
Philippa Gee of financial adviser Philippa Gee Wealth Management was also critical. "Let's be honest, if a fund were to deliver top-decile performance [in the best 10pc of funds] consistently over a five to 10-year period, and charged a performance fee that was not so ridiculously high as to eat into the extra returns, then most people would be happy to invest. But in reality it is not like that," she said.
"There are plenty of attractive funds to consider and most do not charge performance fees, so I would always tend to avoid recommending any fund that does charge them. There would have to be a very special reason to recommend a fund that comes with a performance fee and I haven't yet come across that reason."
The number of fund managers using performance fees has increased over the past couple of years and now includes companies such as JO Hambro Capital Management, Alliance Trust, Cazenove, Liontrust, Neptune, Octopus, Odey and SVM.
Performance fees are usually charged as a percentage of returns above a particular benchmark, such as an index or interest rate measure, so while you won't find yourself paying fees for underperformance, you could find yourself paying extra fees for ordinary or average performance.
According to research by Lipper, of about 40 open-ended funds that charge performance-related fees, more than half charge 15pc of net gains as their base fee and just two, Hiscox Global Financials and SVM Funds Global Opportunities, charge 10pc. The remaining funds have performance fees of 20pc. Some 135 investment trusts charge performance fees.
Ian Sayers, director general of the Association of Investment Companies, said: "Performance fees have a place. Some investors would rather pay when performance has been good than pay a flat fee regardless of how the fund has performed. The construction of the fee is, of course, extremely important, and they can become complicated, but that is often because the manager is trying to do the right thing."
Mark Dampier of Hargreaves Lansdown said that in some cases the ''hurdle'' rate that managers had to overcome before they could charge a fee was so low that it was easy to beat. "It's not unreasonable to expect investors to pay for superior performance, but managers should have a fee that relates to a high hurdle rate – often they are next to nothing," he said.
For example, some unit trusts' performance hurdle is to beat Libor – the rate that banks charge to lend to each other – which is currently at just 0.73pc for one month and 0.57pc for three months. Funds that use the three-month sterling Libor rate as a hurdle include BlackRock UK Absolute Alpha, SVM UK Absolute and Jupiter Absolute.
Tony Stenning of BlackRock said: "We consulted extensively with advisers in order to devise a methodology that was as fair and equitable to investors as practicably possible, while still providing a reasonable incentive to the fund's manager.
''Ultimately we decided the hurdle should be based on the key tool used to control economic conditions, that is, short-term interest rates. This would rise when arguably it could be easier to add value to the fund and vice versa when conditions are less benign."
The BlackRock fund also uses a "high water mark", meaning that the fund must beat the previous peak in net asset value before the performance fee kicks in again.
Darius McDermott, the managing director of discount brokers Chelsea Financial Services, said he was not against performance fees provided that managers offered value for money.
"The BlackRock UK Absolute Alpha fund has delivered 26.2pc over five years compared with the average UK All Companies fund of 20.4pc. This has been achieved with a low correlation to the UK market and in a much less volatile manner," he said. "Similarly, Gartmore UK Absolute Return is up by just under 10pc since it launched in April 2009.
"Both managers charge a performance fee but they have given investors good returns."
The same cannot be said of Bedlam Asset Management, which placed performance fees at the centre of its launch eight years ago. The group, named after the east London lunatic asylum, attacked fund management groups that charge investors even when they perform badly.
It opted for a no-gain, no-fee charging structure. If the net asset value of shares has increased by less than 1.25pc in a given quarter, then no fee applies for that quarter. If the return is above 1.25pc then a charge of up to 1.25pc is applied. However, it will not be charged if the fee taken would cause the return to be less than 1.25pc.
Bedlam's fund performance has been less than impressive, but at least investors have not had to pay through the nose. According to Morningstar, its UK fund returned 57.8pc, well behind the FTSE All Share index, which has risen by 86.7pc over the same period. Bedlam's worst performer is its Emerging Markets fund, which has returned 133.2pc since 2002, while its benchmark rose by 311.8pc.
If you are considering a fund with a performance fee, make sure you understand how it works. "If you went to buy a car, you wouldn't just say 'I'll take the red one' and walk out, you'd look under the bonnet and find out all about it," Mr Dampier said. "You need to go into any fund with your eyes open so you know exactly what the fund manager will get out of it and what you will be paying."
Check to see what the performance benchmark is and whether a high water mark applies. Clive Beagles, senior fund manager of the JO Hambro Capital Management UK Equity Income fund, said: "Performance-related fees are an important part of the incentive package for our fund managers and help us to attract high-calibre managers capable of generating outperformance for our clients over the long term. Critically, we apply a high water mark so that any fund underperformance is carried forward and no fee is payable until the underperformance has been recovered."
Remember, too, that total expense ratios, which show all yearly costs, often exclude performance fees, so check the small print to find what you will be paying. You should also see whether there are similar funds available that don't charge performance fees.
Ms Gee said: "Consistency is an important part of meeting investor expectations and the investment industry has to appreciate that the mistrust of the financial world is not aimed just at banking institutions and certain rogue financial advisers, but at fund management groups as well. They should tread very carefully in terms of how much of the cake they want to eat."


Related:

Another look at the performance fees of i Capital Global Fund & i Capital International Value Fund