Sunday 23 January 2011

Quality Investing

Quality investing
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


Quality investing is an investment strategy based on clearly defined fundamental factors that seeks to identify companies with outstanding quality characteristics. The quality assessment is made based on soft (e.g. management credibility) and hard criteria (e.g. balance sheet stability). Quality Investing supports best overall rather than best-in-class approach as the specific industry’s or country’s quality is evaluated as well.


Contents

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[edit]History

The idea for quality Investing originated in the bond and real estate investing, where both the quality and price of potential investments are determined by ratings and expert attestations. Later the concept was applied to enterprises in equity markets.

Benjamin Graham, the founding father of value investing, was the first to recognize the quality problem among equities back in the 1930s. Graham classified stocks as either quality or Low quality. He also observed that the greatest losses result not from buying quality at an excessively high price, but from buying Low quality at a price that seems good value.[1]


The quality issue in a corporate context attracted particular attention in the management economics literature following the development of the BCG matrix in 1970. Using the two specific dimensions of life cycle and the experience curve concept, the matrix allocates a company's products – and even companies themselves – to one of two quality classes (Cash Cows and Stars) or two Non-quality classes (question Marks and Dogs). Other important works on quality of corporate business can be found primarily among the US management literature. These include, for example, "In Search of Excellence" by Thomas Peters and Robert Waterman[2], "Built to Last" by Jim Collins and Jerry Porras[3], and "Good to Great" by Jim Collins[4].


Quality Investing gained credence in particular after the burst of Dot-com bubble in 2001 when investors learned of the spectacular failures of companies such as Enron and Worldcom. These corporate collapses focused investors’ awareness of quality from stock to stock. Investors started to pay more attention to quality of balance sheet, earnings quality , information transparency, corporate governance quality.

[edit]Identification of Corporate quality

As a rule, systematic quality investors identify quality stocks using a defined schedule of criteria that they have generally developed themselves and revise continually. Selection criteria that demonstrably influence and/or explain a company's business success or otherwise can be broken down into five categories:[5]


1. Market Positioning: quality company possesses an economic moat, which distinguishes it from peers and allows to conquer leading market position. The company operates in the industry which offers certain growth potential and has global trends (e.g. ageing population for pharmaceuticals industry) as tailwinds.

2. Business model: According to the BCG matrix, the business model of a quality company is usually classified as star (growing business model, large capex) or cash cow (established business model, ample cash flows, attractive dividend yield). Having a competitive advantage, quality company offers good product portfolio, well-established value chain and wide geographical span.

3. Corporate Governance: Evaluation of corporate management execution is mainly based on soft-criteria assessment. Quality company has professional management, which is limited in headcount (6-8 members in top management) and has a low turnover rate. Its corporate governance structure is transparent, plausible and accordingly organized.

4. Financial Strength: Solid balance sheet, high capital and sales profitability , ability to generate ample cash flows are key attributes of quality company. Quality company tends to demonstrate positive financial momentum for several years in a row. Earnings are of high quality, with operating cash flows exceeding net incomeinventories and accounts receivables not growing faster than sales etc.

5. Attractive valuation: Valuation ultimately is related to quality, which is similar to investments in real estate. Attractive valuation, which is defined by high discounted cash flow (DCF), low P/E ratio and P/B ratio, becomes an important factor in quality investing process.



According to a number of studies the company can sustain its quality for about 11 months in average, which means that quantitative and qualitative monitoring of the company is done systematically.

[edit]Comparison to other investment models

Quality investing is an investment style that can be viewed independent of value investing and growth Investing. A quality portfolio may therefore also contain stocks with Growth and Value attributes.

Nowadays, Value Investing is based first and foremost on stock valuation. Certain valuation coefficients, such as the price/earnings and price/book ratios, are key elements here. Value is defined either by valuation level relative to the overall market or to the sector, or as the opposite of Growth. An analysis of the company's fundamentals is therefore secondary. Consequently, a Value investor will buy a company's stock because he believes that it is undervalued and that the company is a good one. A quality investor, meanwhile, will buy a company's stock because it is an excellent company that is also attractively valued.

Modern Growth Investing centers primarily on Growth stocks. The investor's decision rests equally on experts' profit forecasts and the company's earnings per share. Only stocks that are believed to generate high future profits and a strong growth in earnings per share are admitted to a Growth investor's portfolio. The share price at which these anticipated profits are bought, and the fundamental basis for growth, are secondary considerations. Growth investors thus focus on stocks exhibiting strong earnings expansion and high profit expectations, regardless of their valuation. Quality investors, meanwhile, favor stocks whose high earnings growth is rooted in a sound fundamental basis and whose price is justified. (QVM approach)

References

  1. ^ Benjamin Graham (1949). The Intelligent Investor , New York: Collins. ISBN 0-06-055566-1.
  2. ^ Thomas Peters and Robert Waterman (1982). In Search of ExcellenceISBN 0-06-015042-4
  3. ^ Jim Collins and Jerry Porras (1994). Built to LastISBN 978-0887307393
  4. ^ Jim Collins (2001). Good to Great . ISBN 978-0-06-662099-2
  5. ^ Weckherlin, P. / Hepp, M. (2006). Systematische Investments in Corporate Excellence, Verlag Neue Zürcher Zeitung. ISBN 3-03823-278-5.

[edit]See also

Saturday 22 January 2011

Guan Chong: Bonus and Warrants

Guan Chong

Before Bonus Issue:  240 m existing shares.

After Bonus Issue:  240 m existing shares + 80 m new shares = 320 m shares

Warrants issued: 60 m warrants.
Exercise Price MR 2.00.
Conversion 1 warrant for 1 mother share.
Lifespan of warrant: any time within five (5) years 
EX-date:10/02/2011
Entitlement date:14/02/2011
Entitlement time:05:00:00 PM

The price per mother share for determining the price of the warrant was based on a recent 5 days average price of RM 2.44.  After bonus, this 240 m shares will increase to 320 m shares and each share is then priced the equivalent of RM 1.83.

The warrants are given free.  Each warrant can be converted to one mother share.  With an exercise price of MR 2.00, each warrant is issued at a premium of RM 0.17 or 9.29%.

[On 21.1.2011, the price of Guan Chong was RM 2.62 per share.  After the bonus exercise, the share price will be RM 1.965 per share.  The warrant will be at a premium of RM 0.035 or 1.8% only.]


Understanding warrants

A warrant is a derivative.  It derives its value from its underlying mother share.

The performance of a warrant will always depend on performance of its underlying share mother share.

Warrant is trading at a discount when:
Mother share price > Price of warrant + Exercise Price

Warrant can trade at a discount if the underlying share has just enjoyed a spectacular run in price.  Investors should avoid buying these discount warrants if they feel the high price of the mother share is unsustainable.

Warrant is trading at a premium when:
Mother share price < Price of warrant + Exercise Price

The warrant's premium can crudely measure how much more expensive it is to acquire a share via a warrant compared to buying a share directly.

Premium are commonly used as a quick measure of the warrant's expensiveness.

Because warrants are issued at a premium, investors must consider if it can appreciate to a level that allows recovery of the paid premium within the warrant's lifespan.

Another important factor to consider when selecting a warrant is volatility. A high volatility warrant, even though more expensive, can very well generate more money than a low volatility warrant. High volatility means that the underlying share is more likely making big swings.

It has to be noted that the time span to expiry is very important for warrants. The longer it is from expiry, the higher should be the premium because longer time will be afforded for the mother share to rise.

Of course, you are entitled to dividends as shareholders, but as a warrant holder, you only need to pay a fraction of what shareholders pay.

Most Malaysian investors do not have a good understanding of warrants. However, it must be noted that we should not purchase warrants that are grossly out of money.

While warrants can offer a smart addition to a portfolio, keep in mind the following - your view of the underlying share is important; understand the unique nature of warrants and stay attentive to small movements in the market.

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Company Name: GUAN CHONG BERHAD
Stock Name: GUANCHG
Date Announced: 11/01/2011

Subject: GUANCHG - NOTICE OF BOOK CLOSURE

1) Bonus issue of 80,000,000 new ordinary shares of RM0.25 each ("Bonus Shares") in Guan Chong Berhad ("GCB") ("GCB Shares")to be credited as fully paid-up on the basis of one (1) Bonus Share for every three (3) existing GCB Shares held ("Bonus Issue").

2) Issuance of 60,000,000 free warrants in Guan Chong Berhad ("GCB") ("Warrants") on the basis of one (1) free Warrant for every four (4) existing GCB Shares held.

Kindly be advised of the following :

1) The above Company's securities will be traded and quoted [ "Ex - Bonus Issue" ] as from : [ 10 February 2011 ]

2) The last date of lodgement : [14 February 2011 ]

3) Retention Money : Where securities are not delivered in time for registration by the seller, then the brokers concerned :-

a) Selling Broker to deduct [ 7/19 ] , of the Selling Price against the Selling Client.

b) Buying Broker to deduct [ 45.00%] of the Purchase Price against the Buying Client.

c) Between Broker and Broker, the deduction of [7/9 ] of the Transacted Price is applicable.

Remarks : "Bursa Malaysia Securities Bhd would like to clarify that on the basis of settlement taking place on 16 February 2011 with bonus issue of GUANCHG shares of RM0.25 each, any shareholder who is entitled to receive GUANCHG bonus issue shares, may sell any or all of his GUANCHG shares arising from the bonus issue beginning the Ex-Date (10 February 2011).

For example, if Mr. X purchases 300 GUANCHG shares on cum basis on 9 February 2011, Mr. X should receive 300 shares on 14 February 2011. As a result of the bonus issue, a total of 400 GUANCHG shares will be credited into Mr. X's CDS account on the night of 14 February 2011 being the Book Closing Date. Therefore, Mr. X can sell the bonus issue shares of 400 on or after the Ex-Date ie from 10 February 2011 onwards."

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Company Name: GUAN CHONG BERHAD
Stock Name: GUANCHG
Date Announced: 07/01/2011

On behalf of the Board, we are pleased to announce that the Board had on even date, resolved to fix the exercise price of the Warrants to be issued pursuant to the Proposed Free Warrants Issue at RM2.00 per GCB Share (“Exercise Price”), which represents a premium of approximately 9.29% or RM0.17 over the theoretical ex-price after the Proposed Bonus Issue of RM1.83 per GCB Share, calculated based on the five (5)-day VWAP of GCB Shares up to and including 7 January 2011 of RM2.44.

Based on the exercise price of the Warrants of RM2.00 per new GCB Share, the Company stands to potentially raise up to RM120 million during the tenure of the Warrants upon full exercise of the Warrants by the holders of the Warrants. Such proceeds will be utilised for the day-to-day working capital requirements of the GCB Group.

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Lifespan of warrant: The Warrants may be exercised at any time within five (5) years commencing on and including the date of issuance of the Warrants and ending at 5.00 p.m. on the date preceding the fifth (5th) anniversary of the date of issuance, or if such day is not a market day, then it shall be the market day immediately preceding the said non-market day, but excluding the three (3) clear market days prior to a book closure date or entitlement date announced by the Company and those days during that period on which the Record of Depositors of the Company and/or Warrants Register is/are closed.Any Warrant not exercised during the exercise period will thereafter lapse and cease to be valid.


http://announcements.bursamalaysia.com/EDMS/edmswebh.nsf/all/482576120041BDAA482577B9003BAABC/$File/GCB%20-%20Announcement.pdf

Learn Patience. Yes, patience is a virtue you must have as a value investor.

You can never count on stocks for short-term needs.  As long as you have at least 5 to 10 years and you have chosen a solid company, there's a good chance you won't have to take a loss on a stock.  But you must be patient and willing to wait for the market to turn around for that stock.

Yes, patience is a virtue you must have as a value investor.  To get a good bargain, you need the patience to wait for a stock to recover, as well as the risk tolerance that allows you to hang tough even if the stock has been beaten down.

How do you know if the company is still on the right track?  That comes with research and what Graham calls intelligent investing.

To be an intelligent investor, you must have the time and knowledge to carefully pick your stocks and then monitor your portfolio.  So if your time constraints won't allow you the time you'll need for the research, you may need to be a passive rather than active investor.  These differences will impact the type of portfolio you want to build as a defensive value investor.

You also need to know how you will react when the market takes a nosedive and drops 10% to 15%.  Are you the type of investor who will run for the hills and sell off all your stock?  If so, you do not have the risk tolerance to be an active investor; you need to develop a more passive portfolio with steady returns.  A down market is the time an active defensive investor looks for good buys.

Another question you must ask is, what will you do when the market is going up 10% to 15% or more?  If you think you're the type of investor that will jump on the bandwagon, you don't have the discipline to win as a value investor.  When the market goes up that dramatically, stocks are usually overpriced.  Active defensive investors might sell SOME winning holdings, but they would NOT likely buy any stock during this type of market unless they believe they've found a good beaten-down stock that the crowd missed.

While value investors need to learn patience, you should never hang tough if you believe you made a mistake and the company is performing much worse than you expected, or if you no longer believe in the company's management team.  Take your hit and get out before things get even worse.

Luck versus Investing. Luck plays a part in every investor's life.

Value investing certainly requires a bit of luck, but it is mostly based on perseverance and discipline.  Since you will be taking some risk as you pick beaten-down companies, you do need the luck that most of these risks will pay off.  You also need the discipline to stick with your choice, knowing it will eventually pay off even if things don't look good immediately.  And, yes, some of those risks won't pay off.

Luck plays a part in every investor's life, but few credit their success to being lucky.  So don't count on luck to get you where you want to go.

Discipline is the key to the door of success for value investors.  You have to know how to set your investing goals and stick to them.  You must have the ability to develop your own road map to success without having to worry about taking directions from others.   You also need to become an accumulator of wealth and have the discipline to not spend as much as you make, so you have money to invest when you find a good bargain.




Remember, disciplined people are not easily side-tracked.  They:

  • set their sights on a series of lofty goals,
  • figure out strategies for meeting those goals, and 
  • have the discipline to not lose sight of those goals, even if they stumble and fall along the way.  
They get up, fix the problems, and continue to stay focused on their ultimate goals.

Develop the Value Investing Mind-Set

Value investors must think long term and not think that making a quick profit is their first priority.  You must realize that you won't be investing in the same types of stocks as your friends, and you won't be able to compare quarter-to-quarter returns.

You'll also need to enjoy digging into the annual reports of the companies that interest you and be prepared to analyze everything you see.  Successful value investors are those who enjoy researching and learning everything about a company before diving in and investing.

The key tools you'll need as a value investor are:
  • Patience to wait for the market to realize you found a gold mind in a beaten-down stock.
  • Discipline to spend the time researching your choices and not get caught up in the mob mentality as people push stocks higher and higher above their true value.
  • Desire to learn all you can about choosing the right industries to explore, picking the right stocks within those industries that are unjustifiably beaten down, and then having the courage to wait until the market realizes what a great investment it is missing.
  • Ability to check your emotions at the door.  Don't get emotionally involved in your stocks.  Your value portfolio is way to make money.  Don't fall in love with it or the stocks in it.
  • Expectation of adequate profits but not extraordinary performance.  Historically the average annual return for stocks in any 20-year period is about 10 to 12 percent per year.  That doesn't mean you'll earn that amount each year:  some years will be higher, some lower, but that's the average return you should expect with a long-term stock portfolio.
  • Ability to calculate what a stock is worth, based on careful analysis of the business.  Don't gamble on how much the stock may go up because someone else is foolish enough to pay that.  Eventually, the fools disappear and you could be left holding the bag.
  • Ability to think for yourself.  Unless you've found a friend who is also dedicated to the idea of becoming a value investor, don't count on those around you for support.  You must learn to think for yourself.

In the preface to Benjamin Graham's The Intelligent Investor, Warren Buffet writes,  "To invest successfully over a lifetime does not require a stratospheric IQ, unusual business insights, or inside information.  What's needed is a sound intellectual framework for making decisions and the ability to keep emotions from corroding that framework."

Thursday 20 January 2011

Market Behaviour: The Least You Need to Know

Warren Buffett mentioned that an intelligent investor will require good knowledge in two subjects.  These are:
  1. having a good understanding of market behaviour and 
  2. mastering the valuation of different assets.
Understanding market behaviour is important as this allows the intelligent investors to take advantage of and not to fall victim to it.
  • What are the types of market behaviour the intelligent investors may encounter?  
  • How should you approach these market conditions?  
  • How can you take advantage of these through your buying and selling of shares?
As a value investor, understanding the market behaviour can be rewarding.  At least you need to know:
  • Bull markets tend to be good times to take profits on stocks you're ready to sell.
  • Bear markets tend to be good times to find great buys because so many stocks are on sale.
  • Get yourself under control and learn to move at your own pace, not the pace of the crowd.

Related topics:


Market Behaviour: Control Yourself (Patience)

Patience is a virtue you must learn in order to excel as a value investor.  You must think outside the box and move in a direction the crowd likely is not following.

If you want to invest intelligently according to the basics established by value investing master guru Benjamin Graham, you must control the following:

  1. Your brokerage costs
  2. Your ownership costs
  3. Your expectations
  4. Your risk
  5. Your tax bills
  6. Your own behaviour

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1.  Your Brokerage Costs

Find yourself a good broker who doesn't charge too much to handle your stock trades.  If you feel confident that you know how to handle stock trading, do it yourself with an Internet discount broker.

We don't recommend full-service brokers because you don't need their research services and you certainly won't want to follow their advice - unless by some lucky break you find a broker who truly believes in value investing.

Also, don't trade too often and waste your money jumping in and out of stocks.  Most value investing gurus hold on to stocks for four to five years.

Learn to be patient and give a stock you've picked time to recover.  Its price may go down after you buy the stock, so don't get discouraged.  Few people can actually buy at the absolute lowest price.  Most value investors choose a stock on its way down.

But don't be so patient that you end up losing all your money.  Sometimes, you will make a mistake when picking a stock.  Just admit your mistake, accept your losses and move on.

2.  Your Ownership Costs

If you decide to invest using mutual funds, be sure to buy no-load funds with very low management fees.  Few funds are worth the cost if their management fees are more than 1 percent.

Remember, for a mutual fund manager to meet the returns of a stock market index, he or she must beat the index by at least the cost of the mutual fund's management fees.  Management fees are a drain on all mutual funds.  

Unless for some reason you've picked a particular mutual fund manager you want to follow, your best bet is to invest using an index fund.  Fees for many index funds are just 0.15 to 0.35 percent.

3.  Your Expectations

Always be realistic about the returns you want to get out of a stock purchase.  Even if you decide to follow some newsletters that specialise in value investing, don't get caught up in someone else's hype.  You'll never be disappointed if you carefully assess the true value of a stock and are conservative about the cash flows you can expect from the stock purchase.

4.  Your Risk.

Keep a close eye on the amount of risk you can tolerate.  Determine the asset allocation that best manages your risk tolerance.  

Periodically re-balance your portfolio so you know that you're maintaining your portfolio at a risk tolerance level that you can tolerate.

Determine how much of your portfolio you can afford to put at risk.  Stock investing is a risky business.  You can afford to take more risk if you have a longer time frame before you need the money.  

For example, if you won't need the money for 10 years or more, you can take on the greatest amount of risk. If you plan to use the money in two years, put that money in a cash account.

5.  Your Tax Bills

Each time you sell a stock, you may have to pay taxes on the amount of profit you make from the transaction. If you hold a stock for less than 12 months, the taxes you pay are based on your current tax rate.  

If you hold a stock for more than 12 months, your tax bill could be as little as 5 percent for capital gains, if you are in the 10 percent or 15 percent tax brackets.  You'll pay 15 percent capital gains tax if your tax bracket is 25 percent or higher.

Unless you've made a terrible mistake picking a stock, you should always hold it for more than a year, to minimize the tax hit on any gain.  The only exception to this rule is fi you have a significant profit in a stock and you're afraid the stock could take a tumble.

6.  Your Own Behaviour

It's human nature to get excited and follow the crowd in feeling good about a stock.  The crowd shows its enthusiasm when it bids the price up so high that the P/E ratio tops 20.  Learn to resist these feelings.

It;s also human nature to get frightened when everyone is running from the stock market.  Get your emotions under control and start to take a look for good buys when everyone else thinks it's time to escape.


Market Behaviour: Irrational Exuberance

When a bull run goes on for too long, it can morph into irrational exuberance.  People tend to think that the market has changed and that stock will continue to go up forever.  In reality, it won't - instead, a stock market bubble is gradually inflating.

Unfortunately, most people get caught in the hype and continue to buy while the bubble continues to inflate.  Then that bubble bursts without warning, sending shares of stock down 50 percent and more.  Asset bubbles have formed repeatedly over time, but most people can't recognize a bubble until after it bursts.

The most recent stock bubble was the Internet stock bubble, which inflated in the 1990s and burst in the early 2000s.  Many people who got caught up in Internet stocks lost 50% to 70% on their portfolio - and some lost as much as 90%.

Value investors such as Warren Buffett didn't play in that market.  Value investors will not buy a stock that doesn't have a proven cash flow.  Internet stocks were losing money every year.  Most hadn't even figured out how they would make a profit.  Yet analysts recommended them based on future earnings projections.

If you can't figure how a company will generate its cash flow, walk away from it.  Don't ever get caught up in promises of future earnings that have not yet materialized.



Related topics:

Market Behaviour: Pendulum Swings (Volatility)

Your work isn't finished once you own a stock.  You must be psychologically ready to deal with the pendulum swings (volatility) of the market.  Any stock you buy will go up and will go down.  The trick is to not get caught up in these ups and downs, but to stick to the plan you had for the stock when you picked it.

Don't watch CNBC and the other news shows that follow the market as though it's a sports game.  that will just make it harder for you to stick to your plan.  You don't have to know exactly what the price of your stock is each day.  Watching your stocks that closely will just make you nervous and most likely lead you to make the wrong choices.

Your best bet is to not watch the financial news on TV.  Read the respected financial press, such as The Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times, to stay up on the critical news about the companies you follow and get ideas for new possible investments.

You'll find much more serious, in-depth stories in the financial press.  These stories will help you make the best choices in building your portfolio.





Related topics:

Market Behaviour: Bear Stalls

When you hear commentators say the bears are in control and the market is stalled, it's time for some serious bargain shopping.  

When this mood strikes the market, most investors run for hills and sell stock at whatever price they can get.  That;s why, as an intelligent investor, you can find some great buys.

Be careful, though.  Don't just buy a stock because you think it's cheap.  Make sure:

  1.  you've tested the financial fundamentals and key ratios (sales growth rates, profit margins, market prices of assets, capital expenditure requirements, EPS, P/E, P/B, current ratio,  and operating ratios - inventory turnover, accounts receivable turnover, and accounts payable turnover.); and 
  2. that you've determined it's time to exit the stock based on YOUR time schedule - not the time schedule of the crowd.  

Just because a stock is beaten down doesn't make it a good buy.

Assess the plans the management team (QVM) has for the company, as well as the numbers.



Related topics: