Monday 16 May 2011

Dollar hits global gains



May 11, 2011
    Downside of strong dollar...global shares produced an average annual return of minus 4 per cent in the past decade.
    Downside of strong dollar...global shares produced an average annual return of minus 4 per cent in the past decade.
    Blame the terrible returns on international shares during the past decade on the Australian dollar. There was a dramatic dip in the value of the Australian dollar in 2008 and into early 2009, when sentiment about world economic growth was at its gloomiest, but otherwise it's been on a steady rise during those 10 years.
    Most people access international shares through managed funds that allow the currency effects to flow through to investors.
    The dollar's rise has more than sliced away the gains on overseas sharemarkets, leaving investors in the red.
    During the 10 years to the end of March this year, international shares have produced an average annual return of minus 4 per cent.
    With losses compounding during such a long time, the original sum invested 10 years ago would be worth about half today, after accounting for inflation.
    But the same portfolio, hedged or protected from exchange-rate fluctuations, has produced an average annual return of about 3 per cent during the same period. The difference between hedged and unhedged is 7 percentage points each year.
    Investors could be excused for thinking they had invested in a foreign exchange fund rather than an international share fund.
    About half the typical portfolio will be invested in US-listed shares, as the US makes up about half of capitalisation of developed-word sharemarkets. That means the US dollar is the currency exchange rate with the biggest impact on the returns of the unhedged portfolio of international shares. A decade ago, one Australian dollar was buying about US50¢. Last week it was buying more than $US1.10.
    After 10 years of losses, many investors will be wondering what they should do now. Assuming they still want the diversification benefits of global shares, should they switch to a fund that removes the currency effects on their returns? During the next few years you would think the Australian dollar will stay high because of the resources boom keeping commodities prices high and Australian interest rates relatively high. Given the Australian dollar is so highly valued now, if there was to be a change in the value of our dollar, it is much more likely to be down than up.
    If that is right, there may be nothing to gain from being in an international shares fund that removes the currency risk. There may be more to gain from leaving the international shares exposure unhedged to benefit from any dips in the value of the Australian dollar.
    Another approach may be to include more exposure to emerging markets. The typical global shares fund has only a small exposure to emerging markets. But shares listed in China and India and other emerging countries are likely to keep doing well. Perhaps the best option is to consider managers who actively manage the currency risk, have a decent exposure to emerging markets and are not afraid to invest differently to their peers. This approach is more likely to be found among, but not limited to, boutique fund managers who specialise in managing global shares funds.



    Reap the fruits of your labour



    Annette Sampson
    May 11, 2011
      Matter of choice...the fund you choose is a critical decision.
      Matter of choice...the fund you choose is a critical decision. Photo: Erin Jonasson
      Don't ruin your retirement by leaving your money in a lagging super fund, writes Annette Sampson.
      Inertia is costing super fund members tens of thousands of dollars in lost earnings and future retirement benefits.
      While most employees have the right to choose where their money is invested, or at least choose an appropriate investment option within their fund, the vast majority don't exercise that right.
      This is creating a lucky-dip universe where those fortunate enough to land in a good fund do well but others unknowingly remain in underperforming funds that can severely limit their lifestyle when they reach retirement.
      .Click for more photos

      Money Tables

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      Research for Money by SuperRatings shows that the median return for super funds generally quoted in news reports disguises the fact that some funds perform much better than the average - and some much worse.
      Despite the Howard government's introduction of fund choice, about 80 per cent of super money remains invested with employers' default funds. Much of this money is in the default option of that fund - typically a balanced portfolio, which SuperRatings defines as being one that has 60 per cent to 76 per cent of its investments in so-called growth assets such as shares and property.
      Over the 12 months to March 31, the median balanced fund returned a solid 5.1 per cent - largely thanks to the post-GFC recovery in global sharemarkets.
      But if you were unlucky enough to be in the worst performer on SuperRatings's database, you would have lost 1.9 per cent over the year.
      By contrast, the best performer returned 8.2 per cent - more than 10 percentage points better than the laggard and three percentage points better than the median.
      MASSIVE DIFFERENCE
      Of course, super isn't a short-term game and the fact that your fund may not have done well over a particular 12-month period generally isn't cause to run screaming in the opposite direction.
      The managing director of SuperRatings, Jeff Bresnahan, says different funds do well at different points in the market cycle and he would generally recommend investors judge theirs over five years to seven years to gain a clearer picture of how well they do under a wider range of conditions.
      But even over these longer periods the differences can be substantial.
      Over the past five years, SuperRatings says the best-performing fund has returned 5.3 per cent a year while the worst has lost 0.9 per cent. Over the past 10 years, the best performer has returned 7.3 per cent a year, versus 2.8 per cent for the bottom-of-the-pack fund.
      To put this into perspective, it says someone who invested $100,000 in both funds five years ago would now have $125,696 if they had been in the top performer; $95,582 in the worst. Five years is not a long time in terms of retirement savings but even over this sort of period, being in the wrong fund could have cost up to $30,000.
      Over the past 10 years, SuperRatings says, $100,000 would have grown to $201,924 in the best fund and $131,549 in the worst. That's a difference of about $70,000 and while the top fund gave investors a healthy return, the bottom fund merely kept pace with inflation - lagging the performance of even the median cash fund.
      Bresnahan says the past 10 years have been a good test of how funds cope with a full range of market conditions. ''We had the tech bubble and crash, then the rally in mainstream shares, the GFC and the mini rally following it,'' he says. ''If your fund has underperformed by a big margin over 10 years you'd have to consider whether it warrants sacking it.''
      Bresnahan says that over five years, a five-percentage-point annual difference in returns generates a difference in outcomes of just under 30 per cent; over seven years, the difference is almost 40 per cent.
      ''That's where apathy costs [investors] big time, because we don't penalise managers who get it wrong.''
      AVOID THE DUDS
      The chief executive of the Australian Institute of Superannuation Trustees, Fiona Reynolds, says even a 1 per cent difference in returns can make a huge difference over your working life. She says inertia is costing some fund members dearly and the government is trying to address this problem through its proposed super reforms.
      These include the introduction of a new low-cost default fund to be known as MySuper, having the regulator put out information so consumers can more easily compare funds and streamlining the administration of funds and making it easier for consumers to transfer between them.
      However, Reynolds fears many consumers will remain unengaged with their super until their account balances grow to a size where they realise this is serious money.
      The principal of Mercer, Russell Mason, says it is disappointing to compare financial homework with all the work people put into researching a new-car purchase. ''If only they put the same effort into selecting their super fund,'' he says. ''It would have a far greater effect on their situation.''
      However, Mason warns that simply opting for the best-performing fund without knowing why it has done well can be dangerous - particularly if you use shorter-term performance results.
      ''One of the warning signs [that a fund might be a dud] is if it is performing well outside the range of other funds - either on the downside or the upside,'' he says.
      ''If 90 per cent of funds returned 7 [per cent] to 12 per cent last year and yours returned 3 per cent or 20 per cent, it should ring alarm bells. We have seen examples of extraordinary performance that comes about because of high risk and leaves investors very exposed if circumstances change.''
      DON'T RELY ON LABELS
      Mason warns that even within a definition such as ''balanced'' there can be legitimate reasons why one fund will do better than another. He says there is a big difference between having 60 per cent of your fund in growth assets and having 75 per cent. If two funds have the same official weighting, one might use more passive investments such as index funds while the other may have more illiquid assets such as infrastructure and private equity, or be more inclined to use more active fund managers.
      ''The vast majority of members have a poor understanding of what they're invested in,'' Mason says. ''Many hear 'balanced' and think it means a 50:50 mix of defensive and more risky investments.''
      The head of investment consulting at Mercer, Graeme Mather, says a joint effort by the Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia and the Financial Services Council to produce a standard risk measure should help consumers better understand the risk-return trade-off. He says the move will require funds to estimate the number of negative years that investors can expect in every 20 years and they will then be rated on a scale of one to seven using that information.
      While that doesn't address other risks in super funds, such as liquidity risk or the risk that the people running the fund will have problems, Mason says it should at least help consumers understand why a fund with a 10 per cent return but a low-risk rating may actually be a better prospect than one that has returned 12 per cent or 15 per cent by taking on much more risk.
      AGE MATTERS
      Reynolds says consumers should also be aware that if a fund is doing its job properly, it should tailor its investment strategy to its membership. This may mean a fund with a largely young membership will have different returns to one with mainly older members but both could be doing a good job.
      ''It's about what works for members rather than just how [the fund] compares to someone else,'' she says. ''There has been too much following the rest of the industry.''
      Mather says one legacy of the GFC has been increased volatility in investment returns - though it has also created opportunities. SuperRatings'a figures show the effect of the GFC has by no means worked its way out of the system, with median fund returns over the past three and five years lagging, or barely in line with, inflation.
      Over the past three years, the median balanced fund has returned just 1.3 per cent a year while the return over five years is a marginally better 2.5 per cent. ''People might look at that and say they'd have been better with their money in a bank account but most people wouldn't save for retirement without super,'' Reynolds says. ''The returns still don't look too good at the moment but for many people, retirement is still a long way off and over that time they'll be better off in the compulsory system.''
      Set for double-digit returns
      SuperRatings's figures show funds are on track for a double-digit return this financial year, which will come as good news to fund members still smarting from the losses incurred during the GFC.
      The managing director of SuperRatings, Jeff Bresnahan says while the markets are still volatile and returns will swing up and down from month to month, the median balanced fund returned 9.53 per cent in the nine months to March 30 and could top 10 per cent if investment conditions remain positive.
      Australian shares are the biggest driver of fund returns but Bresnahan says the good news is that funds haven't just been riding on the market's coat-tails.
      He says the median Australian share option has outperformed the broader sharemarket over one-, three-, five- and 10-year periods, even after fees and taxes. He says balanced funds have benefited from this.
      The two top-performing balanced funds - Catholic Super's balanced option and Local Super's growth option - both returned 8 per cent or more through the year to March 31 (though Local Super's conservative option did better with 8.5 per cent) and the top Australian share fund, NGS Super, produced a 10 per cent return. See tables page 6.
      Bresnahan says capital stable funds have benefited from a flight to US, German and Australian bonds. International shares have also contributed to some funds' profits, though the rising Australian dollar has taken the edge off those returns for funds that don't hedge their currency exposure.
      The SuperRatings tables show the top international share options have recorded stellar returns in the past year - as high as 11.1 per cent - though the GFC still has most funds in the red over the past three to five years.
      However, the extent to which funds benefited from the recovery in overseas markets has depended on their currency hedging. SuperRatings says the MSCI World Index's return over the past 12 months was 12.36 per cent, after hedging against a rising Australian dollar. But the unhedged version of the index returned 4.25 per cent.
      Bresnahan says most funds in the SuperRatings survey partially hedge their currency exposure, typically 26 per cent to 50 per cent of international portfolios.
      The head of investment consulting for Mercer, Graeme Mather, says many funds have reduced their level of hedging to about 35 per cent to take advantage of a potential winding back of the Aussie dollar. This has taken gloss off returns but may pay off if the dollar depreciates.



      Major Delusions among New Graduates

      Major Delusions
      By TALI SHAROT
      Published: May 14, 2011

      THIS month American college seniors will don caps and gowns. As they await receipt of their diplomas, they will absorb lessons handed to them by the accomplished men and women who deliver commencement speeches. More often than not the speakers will be outliers: rare individuals who made it against all odds. More often than not their message will be “dreams come true ... take chances ... if you try hard enough you will succeed.”

      “Don’t know that you can’t fly, and you will soar like an eagle,” Earl E. Bakken, founder of the medical technology company Medtronic, told the University of Hawaii’s class of 2004. “You have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future,” Steven P. Jobs told Stanford’s 2005 graduates.

      But in an era of unemployment, financial meltdowns, political unrest and natural disasters, is this message of optimism helpful?

      By and large, the answer is yes. Although the graduates are unlikely to be as fortunate as their commencement speakers, evidence from the science of optimism indicates that believing in their optimistic message will nonetheless be a good thing.

      We now know that underestimating the obstacles life has in store lowers stress and anxiety, leading to better health and well-being. This is one reason optimists recover faster from illnesses and live longer. Believing a goal is attainable motivates us to get closer to our dreams. Because of the power of optimism, enhancing graduates’ faith in the American dream by presenting them with rare examples as proof may be just what the doctor ordered. Their hopes may not be fully realized, but they will be more successful, healthier and happier if they hold on to positively biased expectations.

      Surveys show that students expect to receive more job offers and higher salaries upon graduation than they wind up getting. They anticipate being married till death do them part, though they are acutely aware that statistics say there’s a good chance they won’t be. They underestimate their likelihood of suffering from cancer, heart attack and other misfortunes and overestimate their likelihood of acquiring wealth and professional success. The list goes on and on.

      It’s not just the young who embrace positive delusions. Whether you are 9 or 90, male or female, of African or European descent, you are likely to have an optimism bias. In fact, 80 percent of the world does. (Many believe optimism is unique to Americans; studies show the rest of the world is just as optimistic.)

      In fact, the people who accurately predict the likelihood of coming events tend to be mildly depressed. The rest of us systematically fail when interpreting the crystal ball.

      For many years, scientists were puzzled by the existence of this unshakable optimism. It did not make sense. How is it that people remain optimistic even though information challenging those predictions is abundantly available? It turns out it is not commencement speeches or self-help books that make us hopeful. Recently, with the development of non-invasive brain imaging techniques, we have gathered evidence that suggests our brains are hard-wired to be unrealistically optimistic. When we learn what the future may hold, our neurons efficiently encode unexpectedly good information, but fail to incorporate information that is unexpectedly bad.

      That’s why when we listen to Oprah Winfrey’s rags-to-riches story our brain takes note and concludes that we too may become immensely rich and powerful one day; but when told the likelihood of being unemployed is almost 1 in 10 or of suffering from cancer is over 1 in 3 we take no notice.

      Such optimistic illusions, with all of their advantages, unfortunately come at a price. Underestimating risk makes us less likely to practice safe sex, save for retirement, buy insurance or undergo medical screenings.

      In some cases relatively minor biases can even lead to global disaster. Take the financial crisis of 2008. Each investor, homeowner, banker or economic regulator expected slightly better profits than were realistically warranted. On its own, each bias would not have created huge losses. Yet when combined in one market they produced a giant financial bubble that did just that.

      As the Duke economists Manju Puri and David T. Robinson suggest, optimism is like red wine: a glass a day is good for you, but a bottle a day can be hazardous. The optimal solution then? Believe you will live a long healthy life, but go for frequent medical screenings. Aspire to write the next “Harry Potter” series, but have a safety net in place too.

      At a time when the economic crisis is deepened by revolutions and tsunamis, cautious optimism may be the most useful message to communicate to graduates — believe you can fly, with a parachute attached, and you will soar like an eagle.

      Tali Sharot, a research fellow at the Wellcome Trust Center for Neuroimaging at University College London, is the author of “The Optimism Bias: A Tour of the Irrationally Positive Brain.”

      http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/15/opinion/15Sharot.html?_r=1&hp

      Sunday 15 May 2011

      U.S. Collapse 2012: America's economic decline and De-evolution into bankrupt Welfare State

      Inflation and the Dollar's crash

      How Inflation Works

      What Is Money?

      What Caused the Great Depression?

      Stories from the Great Depression

      The Crash of 1929 & The Great Depression (PBS)

      1929 Wall Street Stock Market Crash

      The most devastating stock market crash in the history of the United States;
      Its from my favorite documentary by PBS - New York.

      This particular part about Wall Street crash of 1929 is from episode 5 of the series with title: Cosmopolis

      There are lots of archive photos, footages and drawings throughout the series and in my opinion it was great work done with finding them.

      1929 Stock Market Crash











      Warren Buffett Biography pt 1

      Warren Buffett's investment advice (Excellent)

      Stock Investing for beginners

      Here you will find free stock information,and how to buy stocks also and how to day trade.
      www.StockInvestingProfits.com

      Jim Rogers You Can Make a lot of Money if You do your Homework

      Jim Rogers Bares the Secrets of Investing - Bloomberg

      Rogers Writes Letter to His Two Young Daughters - Investing Secrets:
      1. Question Everything,
      2. Never Follow the Crowd, and
      3. Beware of Boys

      Value Investing: Buy Cheap, Obscure and Out of Fashion

      Value Investing Process

      Search
      - Cheap
      - Ugly
      - Obscure
      - Otherwise ignored

      Valuation
      - Asset
      - Earnings Power
      - Franchise

      Review
      - Key Issues
      - Collateral Evidence
      - Personal Biases

      Risk Management
      - Margin of Safety
      - Some Diversification
      - Patience - Default Strategy

      Important Points
      - Market Irrationality Creates Opportunity
      - Know what you know: Inherent Quality of Information & Circle of Competence
      - Look for Margin of Safety

      Professor Bruce C. Greenwald discusses his executive education course in value investing and what differentiates the practice from other investment strategies. "Most investors are constitutionally oriented to buying lottery tickets," he says. "And that's what creates the value opportunities for the plodding, careful investors."

      For more programs from the Columbia Business School: http://fora.tv/partner/Columbia_Business_School


      Saturday 14 May 2011

      Warren Buffett's Secret "Value" Formula

      Warren Buffett Value Formula separates weak industries from strong ones.




      Warren Buffett's Secret "Value" Formula




      Which Industries Does Warren Buffett Avoid?

      Is Warren Buffett Really A Value Investor?



       Posted: May 6, 2011 11:46AM by Ryan C. Fuhrmann, CFA


      TUTORIAL: 
      P/E Ratio

      He's one of the most famous investors of all time and has certainly earned his nickname of "The Oracle of Omaha". Warren Buffett has long been hailed as avalue investor. But is that statement still accurate? 

      What Is Value Investing?

      Value investing can mean a number of different things, but is generally meant to refer to a class of investors who look for investments trading at a price below where certain valuation fundamentals suggest they should be trading at. For example, a stock can trade at a price-to-earnings (P/E) or price-to-book (P/B) value below its peers or the market average in general. Overall, value investing is an investment philosophy of finding undervalued securities that should eventually increase in value to be closer in line with (or above) the metrics of rivals or stock market averages.

      On the flip side, growth investors are said to be more interested in the growth potential of a security whose underlying company has above-average sales or profit expansion prospects. Given this higher growth potential, a growth investor may be willing to pay above-average P/E, P/B or other valuationmetrics compared to rivals or the market in general.

      The value investing crowd has its origins in the 1934 text "Security Analysis" by Benjamin Graham and David Dodd and has been further developed by Warren Buffett, a past student of Graham who has also preached that a security eventually trades up to its intrinsic value. Buffett championed Graham's approach to buy a security with a satisfactory margin of safety, or, in Graham's words, "a favorable difference between price on the one hand and indicated or appraised value on the other." (This simple measure can help investors determine whether a stock is a good deal. For more, see Value Investing Using The Enterprise Multiple.)

      Where Does Buffett Fit?

      In this context, Buffett is considered a value investor. More specifically, he relies on estimating a firm's future cash flows and discounting them back to the present to get an estimated intrinsic value for a company when it comes to investing in its stock. Intrinsic value is a theoretical value assuming one could know a firm's future cash flows with certainty, so the reality is that it is a very subjective measure and investors may come to widely varying estimations of intrinsic value, even when looking at the same set of data, valuation metrics, etc.

      But in the context of value versus growth investing, Buffett is actually a bit of both. In his words, "growth and value investing are joined at the hip" and that understanding is required to find a company and underlying stock with solid growth prospects and a market value well below intrinsic value. The best illustration of this is the growth of Berkshire Hathaway's non-insurance businesses over the past four decades. Below is a chart that Buffett provided in Berkshire's 2010 shareholder letter:

      Period                    
      Annual Earnings Growth
      1970-1980 
      20.8%
      1980-1990
      18.4%
      1990-2000
      24.5%
      2000-2010 
      20.5%

      Over this time period, earnings growth averaged 21% annually while Berkshire's stock price grew at an annual compounded rate of 22.1%, almost completely mirroring the growth in earnings. In this respect, Buffett is the ultimate growth investor because earnings grew about twice the level of the stock market during this period. In Buffett's words from this year's shareholder letter, "market prices and intrinsic value often follow very different paths - sometimes for extended periods - but eventually they meet." (Find out how Mr. Market's mood swings can mean great opportunities for you. See Take On Risk With A Margin of Safety.)

      TUTORIALDCF Analysis

      The Bottom Line

      Again, perhaps the most appropriate conclusion to make is that Buffett is both a value and growth investor. At the outset of making an investment, it is reasonable to conclude that he uses a margin of safety by purchasing a stock with valuation metrics that are well below average. But overall, growth has to be there so that the firm can eventually trade up closer to its intrinsic value and growth potential must be well above average to double the market's return over the long haul.  

      To be a truly successful investor, individuals must take both a value and growth perspective when it comes to spotting undervalued investments andoutperforming the market over time. Valuation multiples including P/E and P/B ratios are a good starting point, but at the end of the day it is also necessary to estimate a firm's growth prospects and cash flows going forward, and come to an independent determination of intrinsic value. (For more, see The 3 Most Timeless Investment Principles.)

      Disclosure: At the time of writing Ryan C. Fuhrmann did not own shares in any company mentioned in this article.


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