myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.

Wednesday 3 April 2013

Personal Finance by a leading Financial Planner for the Secondary School Students. Yes, educate them early.

Many intelligent people has no financial education.
This video is an excellent introduction to personal finance.
Well worth spending time to go through the 12 videos in a couple of hours which will benefit you for a lifetime in your financial planning and management.
You will learn the core knowledge of financial planning to accomplish your goals.

Define and set your goals.

Your goals should be SMART
Specific
Measurable
Attainable
Realistic
Time bound

Related:
Compounding
http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2013/04/compound-interest.html

Human Resources: 'Social Engineering in the 20th Century'

Behaviour modification.
Behaviour is predictable, therefore it is controllable.
This world is driven not by love, but by fear.

Warren Buffett - The World's Greatest Money Maker

Tuesday 2 April 2013

How Rich Men Think and Act

Wealth Creation Formula:
The broke buy stuff.
The middle class buy liabilities.
The rich buy assets.

Compound Interest

The Six Important Financial Parameters

1. EPS
2. Operating Cash Flows
3. Net Sales
4. Book Value per Share (BVPS)
5. Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
6. Debt to Net Profit Ratio

Gold Standards
1 - 4 : Growing at greater than 12% per year for 10 years
5. >12% every year
6. <3 br="" nbsp="">
Past Performance
Profit Margins (OPM & NPM)
Debt/Equity ratio
ROE
Working Capital Management

Having established the company's solid financial track record, now look at their competitive strength.

Unbreachable Moats - Sustainable competitive advantage

Introducing the Gurus & their Principles - Benjamin Graham

Passive Investing Theory: Investing versus Speculating

PetDag to issue special 35 sen dividend.

For its fourth quarter ending Dec 31, PetDag made RM176.5 million in net profit on RM 7.7 billion in revenue.

PetDag has proposed a special dividend payout of 35 sen per share, to be paid on April 30. The ex-date falls on April 26.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/234653-petdag-to-issue-35-sen-dividend.html

CBIP subsidiary acquires land in Kapar

CBIP

A subsidiary of CBIP, Advance Boilers Sdn. Bhd, has entered into a sale and purchase agreement with Vickers Hoskins (M) Sdn. Bhd. to acquire a 4.09 ha piece of land in Kapar, Selangor, for RM 35.98 million.

No valuation was done on the land, but we believe the price CBIP is paying - RM82.60 per sq. ft - is reasonable in line with average transaction values of land in the area of RM85 to RM90 psf.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/234670-cbips-boiler-operations-heating-up.html

Hot Stock - Nestle

Nestle's 3 year profit before tax compound annual growth rate to grow by 16.1% in financial year 2013.

Domestic consumption, which makes up an estimated 75% of sales, is expected to remain buoyant driving this growth.

There would be higher capital expenditure to help boost beverage and confectionery segments in 2013.

Sales are estimated to grow by 6% and 15% respectively for both these segments.

Cautious outlook on escalating raw material prices especially for cocoa butter and milk solids.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/234684-hot-stock-nestle-rises-22-sen-despite-ta-report.html

The Psychology of Human Misjudgement - Charlie Munger Full Speech

Secrets to successful investing

Secrets to successful investing.

1. Know the business well. Do you understand the business?
2. Know the intrinsic value of the business. Is it increasing its intrinsic value consistently?
3. Know the management. Are they with integrity?
4. Know the price. Is the company's price attractive, that is, undervalued?

It is just so simple, everyone can adopt these.

Making Millions The Easy Way (Documentary)

Gambling

Warren Buffett - The World's Greatest Money Maker

Sunday 31 March 2013

The Anatomy of Health Insurance (Graphic)

Anatomy of the Forex Market (Graphic)

Source http://www.pepperstone.com/

By Instruments
Foreign exchange swaps – $1,8 trillion – 45%
Spot – $1,5 trillion – 37,5%
Outright forwards – $475 billions – 11,9%
Currency options – $207 billions – 5,2%
Currency swap – $43 billions – 1%

By Counterparties
with other financial institutions (hedge funds, pension funds, central banks) – $1,9 trillion – 47,7%
with bank dealers – $1,5 trillion – 37,5%
with non-financial customers (corporations and governance) – $533 billions – 13,4%
private traders – $60 billions – 1,5%

Where did GOOGLE make their money in 2011? (Graphic)

What is a Stock? (Graphic)

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My 18 points guide to Successfully compounding your money in Stocks

Be a good stock picker.
Think as a business owner.
Always look at value rather than the price. Do the homework.
Buy and hold is alright for selected stocks.
Compounding is your friend, get this to work its magic.
Mr. Market is there to be taken advantage of. Do not be the sucker instead. BFS;STS.
Always buy a lot when the price is low.
Never buy when the stock is overpriced.
It is alright to buy when the selected stock is at a fair price.
Phasing in or dollar cost averaging is safe for such stocks during a downtrend, unless the price is still obviously too high.
Do not time the market for such or any stocks.
By keeping to the above strategy, the returns will be delivered through the growth of the company's business.
So, when do you sell the stock? Almost never, as long as the fundamentals remain sound and the future prospects intact.
The downside risk is protected through only buying when the price is low or fairly priced.
Tactical dynamic asset allocation or rebalancing based on valuation can be employed but this sounds easier than is practical, except in extreme market situations.
Sell urgently when the company business fundamental has deteriorated irreversibly.
You may also wish to sell should the growth of the company has obviously slowed and you can reinvest into another company with greater growth potential of similar quality. However, unlike point 16, you can do so leisurely.
In conclusion, a critical key to successful investing is in your stock picking ability.

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2012/07/my-18-points-guide-to-successfully.html

11 Lessons From Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch taught me:

1. Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.
2. Never invest in any idea you can’t illustrate with a crayon.
3. Over the short term, there may be no correlation between the success of a company’s operations and the success of its stock. Over the long term, there’s a 100% correlation.
4. Buying stocks without studying the companies is the same as playing poker – and never looking at your cards.
5. Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies.
6. Owning stock is like having children. Don’t get involved with more than you can handle.
7. When the insiders are buying, it’s a good sign.
8. Unless you’re a short seller, it never pays to be pessimistic.
9. A stock market decline is as predictable as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you’re prepared, it can’t hurt you.
10. Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach.
11. Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what’s actually happening to the companies in which you’ve invested.

Lynch’s advice had a profound effect on my stock market approach. He taught me that investment success isn’t the result of developing the right macro-economic view or deciding when to jump in or out of the market. Success is about researching companies to identify those that are likely to report positive surprises.

Capital Expenditure

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 25%. Less is better.

Capital Expenditures are expenses on:
- fixed assets such as equipment, property, or industrial buildings
- fixing problems with an asset
- preparing an asset to be used in business
- restoring property
- starting new businesses

A good company will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 50%.

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of less than 25%.

Less is better.

Benjamin Graham's 113 Wise Words

The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons' mistakes of judgement."

Philip Fisher's Wise Words

"The refusal to sell at a loss, while completely natural and normal, is probably one of the most dangerous in which we can indulge ourselves in the entire investment process.

More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could 'at least come out even' than from any other single reason. If to these actual losses are added the profits that might have been made through the proper reinvestment of these funds if such reinvestment had been made when the mistake was first realized, the cost of self-indulgence becomes truly tremendous."

(Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits)

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Here is the overriding primary test, followed by observations on why it is so critically important:

Knowing all that you now know and expect about the company and its stock (not what you originally believed or hoped at time of purchase), and assuming that you had available capital, and assuming that it would not cause a portfolio imbalance to do so, would you buy this stock today, at today's price?

No equivocation. Yes or no?

Answers such as maybe or probably are not acceptable since they are ways of dodging the issue. No investor probably buys a stock; they either place an order or do not.

Here is the implication of your answer to that critical test: if you did not answer with a clear affirmative, you should sell; only if you said a strong yes, are you justified to hold.

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Ideally a stock you plan to purchase should have all of the following charateristics:

• A rising trend of earnings dividends and book value per share.
• A balance sheet with less debt than other companies in its particular industry.
• A P/E ratio no higher than average.
• A dividend yield that suits your particular needs.
• A below-average dividend pay-out ratio.
• A history of earnings and dividends not pockmarked by erratic ups and downs.
• Companies whose ROE is 15 or better.
• A ratio of price to cash flow (P/CF) that is not too high when compared to other stocks in the same industry.

Margin of Safety Concept: Stocks should be bought like groceries, not like perfume

The high CAGR in the early years of the investing period, due to buying at a discount, tended to decline and approach that of the intrinsic EPS GR of the companies over a longer investment time-frame.

Chapter 20 - “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment

A single quote by Graham on page 516 struck me:

Observation over many years has taught us that the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions.

Basically, Graham is saying that most stock investors lose money because they invest in companies that seem good at a particular point in time, but are lacking the fundamentals of a long-lasting stable company.

This seems obvious on the surface, but it’s actually a great argument for thinking more carefully about your individual stock investments. If most of your losses come from buying companies that seem healthy but really aren’t, isn’t that a profound argument for carefully studying any company you might invest in?

myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Wednesday 3 April 2013

Personal Finance by a leading Financial Planner for the Secondary School Students. Yes, educate them early.

Human Resources: 'Social Engineering in the 20th Century'

Warren Buffett - The World's Greatest Money Maker

Tuesday 2 April 2013

How Rich Men Think and Act

Compound Interest

The Six Important Financial Parameters

Unbreachable Moats - Sustainable competitive advantage

Introducing the Gurus & their Principles - Benjamin Graham

Passive Investing Theory: Investing versus Speculating

PetDag to issue special 35 sen dividend.

CBIP subsidiary acquires land in Kapar

Hot Stock - Nestle

The Psychology of Human Misjudgement - Charlie Munger Full Speech

Secrets to successful investing

Making Millions The Easy Way (Documentary)

Warren Buffett - The World's Greatest Money Maker

Sunday 31 March 2013

The Anatomy of Health Insurance (Graphic)

Anatomy of the Forex Market (Graphic)

Where did GOOGLE make their money in 2011? (Graphic)

What is a Stock? (Graphic)

All equity security investments present a risk of loss of capital

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Benjamin Graham

Sell the losers, let the winners run.

Investment Style

Warren Buffett

Political and Economic News

Interesting Blogs