Value investors prefer to estimate the intrinsic value of a company by looking first at the assets and then at the current earnings power of the company.

At the core of most investment approaches lies the practice of valuations, the techniques by which the real or intrinsic value of a company can be estimated.

Most investors want to buy securities whose true worth is not reflected in the current market price of the shares.

There is general agreement that the value of a company is the sum of the cash flows it will produce for the investors over the life of the company, discounted back to the present.  

In many cases, however, this approach depends on estimating cash flows far into the future, well beyond the horizon of event he most pro-phetic analyst.

Value investors since Graham have always preferred a bird in the hand - cash in the bank or some close equivalent - to the rosiest projection of future riches.

Therefore, instead of relying on techniques that must make assumptions about events and conditions far into the future, value investors prefer to estimate the intrinsic value of a company by looking:
1.  first at the assets and 
2.  then at the current earnings power of a company.  

Only in exceptional cases are they willing to factor in the value of potential growth.  

New information is interpreted, and not all of that interpretation is rational. (Behavioral Finance)

Psychological research in behavioural finance dispute the idea that investors act as dispassionate calculating machines.

It turns out that like everyone else, investors respond to events in the world with certain powerful biases.  

New information is interpreted, not simply digested, and not all of that interpretation is rational.

One powerful set of biases tends to give more significance to the most recent news, good or bad, than is actually warranted.  The stocks of companies that report high rates of growth are driven to extremes, as are stocks of companies that disappoint.  (Recency bias).

These findings about excessive reactions confirm a belief that value investors have held since Graham:  Over the long run, performance of both companies and share prices generally reverts to a mean.

"Many shall be restored that now are fallen and many shall fall that now are in honor."

The most succinct description of value investing

"The value investor seeks to purchase a security at a bargain price, the proverbial dollar for 50 cents." 

Of course, there is considerably more to it than that.   However, this is a good starting point.



History of the Teaching of Value Investing in Columbia University

1928:  Benjamin Graham began to teach a course on security analysis at Columbia University.

1978:  Roger Murray, an author of the fifth edition of Security Analysis retired, and the course and the tradition disappeared from the formal academic curriculum.

1992:  Mario Gabelli, who had taken the course with Roger Murray, prevailed on Murray to offer a series of lectures on value investing to Gabelli's own analysts, who had found nothing like this in their formal MBA courses.  Bruce Greenwald, the newly appointed Heilbrunn Professor of Asset Management and Finance, attended those lectures out of curiosity.

1993:  Bruce Greenwald dragooned Roger Murray into joining him in offering a revived and revised version of the value course in Columbia University.

Effects of a stock market bubble on the markets and on the broader economy.

Effects of a bubble on the markets are obvious.

1.  On the way up, investors become too confident about their anticipated returns.

2.  Money floods in - part of the definition of a bubble - and prices rise to even more unrealistic levels.

3.  At some point, air starts to come out of the bubble.

4.  Share prices drop and some investors, including pension plans and other institutional holders, lose a lot of money.

5.  Many equity investors feel burned and move out of the stock market for good, and it takes years for new ones to take their place.

6.  The consequence of a bubble for markets, then, is to reward winners and punish losers with a savage intensity.  


The influence of a bubble market on the broader economy maybe even more long lasting and more perverse.  Here are some of the more important consequences of the technology bubble of 2000 in the U.S.:

1.  Excessive investment in telecommunications and related industries, thanks to the funds available from stock offerings and borrowings that the bubble market made possible.

2.  Expansion to the point of collapse, or near-collapse, by companies that were profitable but used the high price of their shares to make foolish acquisitions or increase capacity beyond what a sensible view of the future would have allowed.

3.  Incompetent, dishonest, and fraudulent behaviour by corporate executives, boards of directors, auditors, investment bankers, security analysts, and other market participants.


Conclusion:

Competitive market economies have always been subject to business cycles.

Like all cycles, they are painful on the way down.

A wider acceptance of the principles of value investing may ease some of that pain the next time the mania sets in.

Value Investing approach outperformed the market as a whole and Value Investors who stayed the course were rewarded, as least, on a relative basis.

Value investors emphasize on

1.  Real Assets
2.  Current Earnings

They treat prospects for profitable growth with skepticism.

Do not confuse productivity with profitability.  Productivity is not the same as profitability.

[The Internet can be both the friend of productivity and the scourge of profitability.   Airline travelers, for instance, can search more easily for lower fares, more convenient routes, and more generous rewards. Intensified competition almost always lowers prices.]

It is profits that ultimately determine stock prices.

Only firm with unique abilities, companies that enjoy a competitive advantage will reap extraordinary profits.

Chuck Carlson - Stock Market and Investment Opportunities

Published on 29 Apr 2013

The power of process will be essential for unemotional investing in this age of turbulence. Investors will learn about profit opportunities in 2013 and the power of dividends.

Investment banking

Dr Kathy Walsh from the School of Banking and Finance at the Australian School of Business has produced a video that introduces undergraduate students to the world of investment banking. 

Why to Invest in stock market?

Not doing anything differently: Buffet (2009)

16 Nov 2009
Warren Buffet, chairman and CEO, Berkshire Hathaway, has faith in his long standing value investing philosophy

Warren Buffett on Economics: Trading Stocks, Imports, Exports, Debt and U.S. Dollars

Warren Buffett: An Amazing Interview on Economic Recovery, Finance, Stocks (2012)

@39.00 "I read almost every book in the library on investment in Omaha by the age of 11."

Warren Buffett - Speculation Vs Investment

Understanding Risk and Return tradeoff

The Six Important Financial Parameters

Warren Buffett - Wiki Article

Systemic Value Investing

The speaker summarizes the principles of Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett and Benjamin Graham.
@25 min:  Long term investing - holding on to your strategies for the long term.

Warren Buffett (1962) talks about a brief stock market drop

Mr. Buffett the Teacher: Warren Buffett (2009)

@6.40  The 2 most important topics to learn:
1.  How to value an asset and
2.  Understanding the Market Fluctuations

Introduction to the Right Way to invest in Stocks - Value Investing

Why invest in stocks on your own

Warren Buffett and his Principles

Introducing Benjamin Graham and his Principles

How to Stay Out of Debt: Warren Buffett - Financial Future of American Youth (1999)

@2.30  Focus on your own earning potential.  How to realise your full potential? Education to unlock this potential.  Next is developing the right habits (integrity, smart and energetic).
@7.38:  A piece of financial advice.  Avoid credit cards.  Save. Save. Save.  Be ahead of the game.
@23.50  Advice for youth on how to ensure their financial future.  Develop your full potential.  Most people go through life in a "sleep walk".  Always be ahead of the game.  Save. Save. Save.  Don't be behind the game. Have net resources and not having debt.  Don't get behind by buying a lot of things that you have to pay interest on.
@27.00  Buffett's advice on students' education debts.  High price education versus lesser price education. You need to be prodded in the right direction, but most education is SELF TAUGHT.
@38.30:  How does Warren Buffett decide how to invest his time and money in?
@47.50   Warren Buffett's advise those who are interested in stocks and how they can get involved in this..
(His previous 8 years involvement with stock led him to reading Intelligent Investor when this book was written.)

Warren Buffett's Investment Checklist

Warren Buffett's Investment Checklist

How would your firm look to the premier investor? What does great investment potential look like to Mr. Buffett?(ed.)

A checklist for the stock selector; the Warren Buffett criteria:

Is the business simple and understandable?

"An investor needs to do very few things right as long as he or she avoids big mistakes." Above-average returns are often produced by doing ordinary things exceptionally well.

Does the business have a consistent operating history?

Buffett's experience has been that the best returns are achieved by companies that have been producing the same product or service for several years.

Does the business have favourable long-term prospects?

Buffett sees the economic world as being divided into franchises and commodity businesses. He defines a franchise as a company providing a product or service that is (1) needed or desired, (2) has no close substitute, and (3) is not regulated. Look for the franchise business.

Is the management rational with its capital?

A company that provides average or below-average investment returns but generates cash in excess of its needs has three options: (1) It can ignore the problem and continue to reinvest at below average rates, (2) it can buy growth, or (3) it can return the money to shareholders. It is here that management will behave rationally or irrationally. In Buffett's mind, the only reasonable and responsible course is to return that money to shareholders by raising the dividend, or buying back shares.

Is management candid with the shareholders?

Buffett says, "What needs to be reported is data - whether GAAP, non-GAAP, or extra-GAAP - that helps the financially literate readers answer three key questions: (1) Approximately how much is this company worth? (2) What is the likelihood that it can meet its future obligations? and (3) How good a job are its managers doing, given the hand they have been dealt?" "The CEO who misleads others in public may eventually mislead himself in private."

Does management resist the institutional imperative?

According to Buffett, the institutional imperative exists when "(1) an institution resists any change in its current direction; (2) just as work expands to fill available time, corporate projects or acquisitions will materialize to soak up available funds; (3) any business craving of the leader, however foolish, will quickly be supported by detailed rate-of-return and strategic studies prepared by his troops; and (4) the behaviour of peer companies, whether they are expanding, acquiring, setting executive compensation or whatever, will be mindlessly imitated."

Is the focus on Return On Equity?

"The primary test of managerial economic performance is the achievement of a high earnings rate on equity capital employed (without undue leverage, accounting gimmickry, etc.) and not the consistent gains in earnings per share."

What is the rate of "owner earnings"?

Buffett prefers to modify the cash flow ratio to what he calls "owner earnings" - a company's net income plus depreciation, depletion and amortization, less the amount of capital expenditures and any additional working capital that might be needed. Owner earnings are not precise and calculating future capital expenditures requires rough estimates.

Is there a high profit margin?

In Buffett's experience, managers of high-cost operations continually add to overhead, whereas managers of low-cost operations are always finding ways to cut expenses. Berkshire Hathaway is a low-cost operation with after-tax overhead corporate expense of less than 1 percent of operating earnings, compared to other companies with similar earnings but 10 percent corporate expenses.

Has the company created at least one dollar of market value, for every dollar retained?

Buffett explains, "Within this gigantic (stock market) auction arena, it is our job to select a business with economic characteristics allowing each dollar of retained earnings to be translated into at least a dollar of market value."

What is the value of the business?

Price is established by the stock market. Buffett tells us the value of a business is determined by the net cash flows expected to occur over the life of the business, discounted at an appropriate interest rate, and he uses the rate of the long-term U.S. government bond.

Can it be purchased at a significant discount to its value?

Having put a value on the business, Buffett then builds in a margin of safety and buys at prices far below their indicated value.

Reference to Robert Hagstrom's book The Warren Buffett Way, John Wiley & Sons Inc., New York, 1994. 

http://www.refresher.com/!buffett2.html

Warren Buffett: "For every dollar retained by the corporation, at least one dollar of market value must be created for owners."

Each dollar of retained earnings is translated into at least one dollar of market

Hey guys,

Been reading the warrent buffet way book, however, I am not too sure if my understanding of the phrase below is 100% correct.

"Each dollar of retained earnings is translated into atleast one dollar of market value."

Retained earnings are the profits from the company right?

So if company X makes 100 million retained profit, they reinvested 100 million back into the company million, they would make another 100 million profit from it?

Therefore translating to at least one dollar of market value right?



Thanks heaps!!!

Not quite, retained earnings is profits from the business less any dividends paid out to shareholders, and its a component of "shareholder equity" in the balance sheet. So if a company makes $100 in total profit and pays out $20 in dividends, retained earnings would be $80.

Market value is the market cap of the company. So if the company has increased retained earnings by $80 a year you want the market cap (share price times total number of issued shares) to increase by at least $80 if not more. It is a measurement of whether or not the company's share price is keeping up with the growth of the company's earnings, and the amount by which it increases over the amount of retained earnings will reflect that company's return on equity over and above the cost of capital. 

In other words, do not buy companies whose share price is declining over the long term, as this indicates a poor return on retained earnings.


http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9262-Each-dollar-of-retained-earnings-is-translated-into-at-least-one-dollar-of-market

Allocation of capital is crucial to business and investment management.

Managers and owners should think hard about the circumstances under which earnings should be retained and under which they should be distributed.

1.   All earnings are not created equal.

In many businesses, particularly those that have high asset/profit ratios, inflation causes some or all of the reported earnings to become ersatz (inferior substitutes).  The ersatz portion - let's call these earnings "restricted" - cannot, if the business is to retain its economic position, be distributed as dividends.  Were these earnings to be paid out, the business would lose ground in one or more of the following areas: its ability to maintain its unit volume of sales, its long-term competitive position, its financial strength.  No matter how conservative its payout ratio, a company that consistently distributes restricted earnings is destined for oblivion unless equity capital is otherwise infused.

2.  Restricted earnings are seldom valueless to owners, but they often must be discounted heavily.  In effect, they are conscripted by the business, no matter how poor its economic potential.

(This retention-no-matter how unattractive-the-return situation was communicated unwittingly in a marvelously ironic way by Consolidated Edison a decade ago.  At the time, a punitive regulatory policy was a major factor causing the company's stock to sell as low as one-fourth of book value; i.e., every time a dollar of earnings was retained for reinvestment in the business, that dollar was transformed into only 25 cents of market value.  But, despite this gold-into-lead process, most earnings were reinvested in the business rather than paid to owners.  Meanwhile, at construction and maintenance sites throughout New York, signs proudly proclaimed the corporate slogan, "Dig We Must.")

3.  The much-more-valued unrestricted variety of earnings may, with equal feasibility, be retained or distributed.  Management should choose whichever course makes greater sense for the owners of the business.

This principle is not universally accepted.  For a number of reasons, managers like to withhold unrestricted, readily distributable earnings from shareholders - to expand the corporate empire over which the managers rule, to operate from a position of exceptional financial comfort, etc.  But there is only one valid reason for retention.  Unrestricted earnings should be retained only when there is a reasonable prospect - backed preferably by historical evidence or, when appropriate, by a thoughtful analysis of the future - that for every dollar retained by the corporation, at least one dollar of market value will be created for owners.  This will happen only if the capital retained produces incremental earnings equal to, or above, those generally available to investors

4.  In judging whether managers should retain earnings, shareholders should not simply compare total incremental earnings in recent years to total incremental capital because that relationship may be distorted by what is going on in a core business.

During an inflationary period, companies with a core business characterized by extraordinary economic can use small amounts of incremental capital in that business at very high rates of return.  But unless they are experiencing tremendous unit growth, outstanding businesses by definition generate large amounts of excess cash.  If a company sinks most of this money in other businesses that earn low returns, the company's overall return on retained capital may nevertheless appear excellent because of the extraordinary returns being earned by the portion of earnings incrementally invested in the core business.  The situation is analogous to a Pro-Am golf event:  Even if all the amateurs are hopeless duffers, the team's best-ball score will be respectable because of the dominating skills of the professional.


Ref:  Warren Buffett

The divergent styles of value investing

1.  Some of the value investors invest only in superior businesses that they intend to own for decades, if not forever.

2.  Others, are looking for damaged goods that have been thrown on a rubbish heap, even though the assets or businesses are still worth something.

3.  Some investors run portfolios with six or eight stocks, others will own more than a hundred companies at any one time.

4.  Some of them buy bonds of  companies headed for or already in bankruptcy, thinking that either the bonds will be redeemed for more than their cost or that they will end up owning equity in a reorganized company as it emerges from bankruptcy.

5.  Some seek to avoid the crowd by concentrating on small and tiny companies; others prefer the stability and predictability of established firms with good businesses.

6.  Some try to buy shares in companies that they feel will command a premium from an industrial purchaser who wants to own the whole firm.

7.  Others play that role themselves and purchase the entire company.


There are many dimensions along which value investors differ from one another in how they select their companies: size, quality, growth prospects, asset backing, location (domestic only or more international), and so on.  They also differ on how they assemble their portfolios:  broadly diversified, industry-weighted to take advantage of a circle of  competence, moderately concentrated, or tightly focused.

All put the most emphasis on the "quality of company" dimension.  The quality dimension entails preferences concerning valuation approaches (assets, earnings, growth), the breadth of the portfolio (better companies generally mean more concentration), and the expected time for holding the shares (for the deeply discounted stock, until they recover; for the great companies, forever).

Direct and active investing is a dangerous game, not a trick one can do casually at home.  The easy availability of real-time security prices and inexpensive trading has convinced many otherwise sensible people that investing on their own will provide both enjoyment and profit.

When Mr. Market creates opportunities for value investors by overreacting to information or otherwise plunging to an extreme, most participants are part of that herd, not the few standing to the side.  To recall a piece of wisdom Warren Buffett frequently cites, if you have been in the poker game for thirty minutes and still don't know who the patsy is, you can be pretty certain the patsy is you.

Ref:  Bruce Greenwald

The market prices reflect the sentiment of the investors. To protect oneself from the volatilities of the market prices, the smart investor needs to understand the value of the business he is investing into.

It is the nature of the market that prices of a stock can be pushed to very low level when the crowd is pessimistic.  On the other hand, the prices of these same stock can be pushed to very high level when the crowd is optimistic.  The reasons maybe fundamental or sentimental.

The market prices reflect thus the sentiment of the investors.  However, the value of a stock is unlikely to change very much during these short periods when the market prices may change drastically.

To protect oneself from the volatilities of the market prices, the smart investor needs to understand the value of the business he is investing into.

More investors lose money when they overpay for the stocks when the crowd is overoptimistic.  Many hold onto losses in unbelievable denial.  This is evident whenever the price of a stock falls.  Why does the price of a stock fall?  Often these investors blame many external factors for the fall, when in fact, the single most important reason is themselves, they overpaid for the stock during period of over-optimism.

Think Like the Great Investors: Make Better Decisions and Raise Your Investing to a New Level

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Risk aversion is a concept in psychology, economics, and finance, based on the behavior of humans (especially consumers and investors) while exposed to uncertainty to attempt to reduce that uncertainty.

Risk aversion is the reluctance of a person to accept a bargain with an uncertain payoff rather than another bargain with a more certain, but possibly lower, expected payoff. 

For example, a risk-averse investor might choose to put his or her money into a bank account with a low but guaranteed interest rate, rather than into a stock that may have high expected returns, but also involves a chance of losing value.

Summary:

Due to risk aversion:
1.  The "investor" did not invest into stocks for fear of short term losses, despite knowing that stocks provide better returns than cash or bonds in the long run..
2.  The "investor" sold his winners too early to avoid losses..
3.  The "investor" hung onto his losing stocks, in the hope that the prices will recover and thereby avoiding realising his losses.

In all the above ways, the motivation is fear, which results in poor decision making..

Early research by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky found people place greater value on avoiding losses than on making gains.  

Not only that, but they prefer a small certain gain to a larger potential one.

Nicholson says investing should be managed like a business. 

Some decisions work out and some don't: if an investment doesn't work, sell; if it works, let it continue.

Unfortunately, most people do the reverse.

''The most valuable thing I have learnt over more than 30 years of investing in stocks is that great investors think differently. They understand that investing is about managing uncertainty,''


######################


Decision making in a sideways market

Date  July 31, 2013

Barbara Drury

Shakespeare wrote that life was a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. He could have been writing about the sharemarket - up one day, down the next, going nowhere. And that leaves investors in a quandary.

Most investors understand that shares provide better returns in the long run than cash or bonds, but the fear of short-term losses stops them acting on it. When markets are choppy with no clear direction, investors tend either to hesitate on the sidelines and miss opportunities, or sell too early to avoid a loss.

Either way, the motivation is fear, which results in poor decision making. ''The most valuable thing I have learnt over more than 30 years of investing in stocks is that great investors think differently. They understand that investing is about managing uncertainty,'' professional investor Colin Nicholson says. In his latest book, he discusses the common decision-making traps investors fall into and how to avoid them, drawing on the field of behavioural finance. Early research by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky found people place greater value on avoiding losses than on making gains. Not only that, but they prefer a small certain gain to a larger potential one.

Further behavioural finance studies have found that an aversion to losses caused people to sell their winning stocks too early and hold their losers too long in the hope the share price would recover. Nicholson says investing should be managed like a business. Some decisions work out and some don't: if an investment doesn't work, sell; if it works, let it continue. Unfortunately, most people do the reverse.

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''We are in a sideways market at the moment, which is the most difficult of all to invest in,'' Nicholson says. ''Any fool can make money in a rising market. And if investors are half-smart they can avoid falling markets. But in a sideways market you need to be a stock picker and you need to preserve capital.''

A practical way to achieve this is to use stop losses. Nicholson says the key attributes of great investors are patience, discipline and perspective. ''People get caught up in the psychology of the crowd,'' he says. ''If you can step back and get some perspective it helps.''

Reading about market history is helpful, but before you invest you need a plan.

''One of the ways to deal with inertia and fear is to have a written investment plan that sets out how you select stocks and manage your investments, so no matter what the market throws at you, you know what to do,'' Nicholson says.

Think Like the Great Investors: Make Better Decisions and Raise Your Investing to a New Level, by Colin Nicholson, 2013, Wiley.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/money/decision-making-in-a-sideways-market-20130730-2qvhe.html#ixzz2ahFdpHNZ

How does Buffett make his picks? His 5 investment criteria.

How does Buffett make his picks? 

In short, he uses the following five investment criteria.

● Free cash flow of at least $250 million.

● Net profit margin of 15% or more.

● Return on equity of at least 15% for each of the past three years and the most recent quarter.

● One dollar’s worth of shareholder equity created for every dollar of retained earnings over the past five years.

● Market capitalization of at least $500 million.


One more criterion is added to eliminate overvalued stocks: comparing our five-year discounted cash flow estimate with the current price.

Ref:  http://www.thestockadvisors.com/Main-Section/SP-buys-that-pass-the-Buffett-test.html

"Many stock options in the corporate world have worked in exactly that fashion: they have gained in value simply because of management retained earnings, not because it did well with the capital in its hands. " ~ Warren Buffet

Warren Buffet once stated - "Unrestricted earnings should be retained only where there is a reasonable prospect - backed preferably by historical evidence or, when appropriate by a thoughtful analysis of the future - that for every dollar retained by the corporation, at least one dollar of market value will be created for owners. This will happen only if the capital retained produces incremental earnings equal to, or above, those generally available to investors." Hence for a booming business, the primary goal is to create 1$ in market for every 1$ of the retained earnings.

Read more at Buzzle: http://www.buzzle.com/articles/retained-earnings-calculation.html

The importance of understanding your own behaviours in relation to your actions in investing; once understood, you will be able to apply your preferred investing style consistently without emotional or psychological bias.

The  person capable of standing back may notice that change is the one constant.  

One might do well to stand back and consider whether a perceived truth is indeed so, or whether in fact the more things apparently change, the more some things do indeed remain the same.

Following the crowd and abandoning a commitment to a long-term approach in a business you bought into believing it to be sound could lead to a real loss, especially if, six months later, it turns out that the crowd consisted of ill-informed speculating lemmings and now the shares you sold have doubled in value as sanity returned to the market.

The importance of understanding your own behaviours in relation to your actions cannot be over-stated. 

Once understood, you will be able to apply your preferred investing style consistently without emotional or psychological bias.  Something which is easier said than done.  

"An optimist will tell you the glass is half-full;
the pessimist, half-empty; and
the engineer will tell you the glass is twice the size it needs to be."

Investing is NOT Speculation

There is a difference between speculation and investing.  

One distinction defined this by the length of time over which the investor expects to realise their investment; or to put it another way, how quickly one expects to make money.  

Speculation is high-risk-get-rich-quick territory.

Investing is managed risk over long periods of time where you can acquire wealth slowly.  

[  I am an investor by nature, not a speculator.
I am in it for the long haul, and having bought many good shares at fair or bargain prices in the past and presently, I intend to hang onto to them.
My view is that they will move yet higher over time.
Sometimes, the massive and largely unprecedented increase in the share price of my stocks over a short period was not anticipated by me or probably by many others.
So, did I get lucky?  Well, yes and no.
It was my view that the share price of these companies would rise further or eventually recover from recent corrections, whilst the past is no way of accurately predicting the future, I felt that it would rise to around a certain price in the medium term.
The difference between my expectations and what happened is that I would have been happy for it to return to that price within five years.  As it happened, it did so in less than a few months.  ]

Know-it-alls have a lot to learn. You never know as much as you think you do.

One of the biggest dangers with investing is over-confidence or the addictive nature of doing well.

This is hard-wired into human beings.

It is all about maintaining a sense of perspective, and sometimes we need to remind ourselves that we should guard against over-confidence as much as risk aversion.

You never know as much as you think you do.

Always try and see things from a new or different perspective.  It can be quite developmental.

How is market value of common stock determined?

Market value is basically determined by investor expectations of future earnings and dividend payments, although the value of assets is also important.

Prices may also be affected temporarily by large transactions creating bid-offer imbalances, by rumours of various sorts, and by public tender offers.

How to Invest Your MONEY: 30 Key Personal Investment Opportunities

1. Annuity
2. Bond, Corporate (Interest Bearing)
3. Closed-End Fund
4. Collectibles 
5. Common Stock
6. Convertible Security
7. Exchange-Traded Funds
8. Foreign Stocks and Bonds
9. Futures Contract on a Commodity
10. Futures Contract on an Interest Rate
11. Futures Contract on a Stock Index
12. Government Agency Security
13. Life Insurance (Cash Value)
14. Money Market Fund
15. Mortgage-Backed (Pass-Through) Security
16. Municipal Security
17. Mutual Funds (Open End)
18. Option Contract (Put or Call)
19. Option Contract on a Futures Contract (Future Option)
20. Option Contract on an Interest Rate (Debt Option)
21. Option Contract on a Stock Index
22. Option Contract or Futures Contract on a Currency
23. Precious Metals
24. Preferred Stock (Nonconvertible)
25. Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT and FREIT)
26. Real Estate, Physical
27. Savings Alternatives
28. Treasury Securities (Bills, Bonds and Notes)
29. Unit Investment Trust
30. Zero-Coupon Security

"Money makes Money". Money can snowball.

You have an investment which you are now also getting a dividend yield of at least 7%, paid in regular instalments.  What do you do with the money after your tax has been paid?

What you don't do is withdraw it from your account and spend it.  You could do that, but that would be stupid because you can use dividend payments over time to start to accrue your wealth.  Over time, this can create a snowball effect as your wealth compounds.  Imagine getting to the point at which your dividend payments alone are becoming enough to make it worthwhile re-investing them alone, aside from anything you can top it up with yourself.

When you get to that stage, you will be on the verge of creating a self-sustaining money machine.  It is what is meant by the old phrase "money makes money".  In fact, it does.

Getting your money to work for you is indeed possible if you adopt some of the core principles of investing and apply them consistently and patiently over time.  The more time, the more money will compound. 

WHY NOT have a 100-year plan that would ensure that your children and grandchildren grow into very wealth people indeed.  Investing is a relay marathon, not a sprint. 

The more debt you take on, the higher the risk

The higher the net gearing figure, the riskier the investment becomes.  This is basically because debt has to be paid back no matter what happens to your sales.  Costs are generally more fixed, whilst income for most businesses is variable and can fluctuate wildly.  

For example, the manufacturer of high-end electronic consumer goods that is very heavily geared is likely to face a potentially serious problem in the event of a sudden economic downturn.  The debt, however, as a fixed cost, would remain.  This is how large numbers of businesses go under.

A business in the same sector with little or no debt and a healthy bank balance is far more likely to weather the economic storm.  Recessions are nothing new, they have happened before and will do so again.

Does any business really have an excuse for not being prepared for them?  



[So the world will almost certainly face further financial shocks and economic events that will surprise us, and whilst we can't say when it will happen or how exactly it will play out next time around, sometimes it really can feel like a little bit of history repeating as the stock market will continue to behave in both a rational and irrational manner without warning. 

That is why it is so important to think about the business, and not the share price or even what the market is really doing at all.]

Owning Your Own Business is easier than You Imagine

When you buy a share in a business, you become part-owner of that business and whether you are aware of it or not, everyone in that business from the most junior staff to the most senior is now working for you.
It is your job to remember this and to exercise your judgement in regard to the quality of the job they are doing.

You should not be silent bystanders in a business.  You have after all, parted with your hard-earned cash and invested in the enterprise and therefore you are now part-owner of all of its assets, profits and its future.  Get involved.  It is your money and your business.

Dividends can help to mitigate risk. When buying a dividend stock, the quality of the company is the number one consideration.

Let's assume that the stock stays the same or, even worse, actually goes down a little in the short term.

• If you have invested in a business that does not pay any dividends, you have no compensation for what has happened, just less money than you had when you invested.
• However, if the business pays dividends and continues to honour that commitment (in the same way that companies like Coca Cola have historically done) then it mitigates some of your risk.  

Or to put it another way, you still get some income from the investment which could be seen to offset your loss in the share price, should that have happened.

As a general principle, I tend to invest only in businesses that have a sustained track record of paying dividends.

"When buying a dividend stock, the quality of the company is the number one consideration.  Given enough time, a quality company will always rise above lesser competition.  When your holding period is forever, it is inevitable that a superior stock will eventually out-perform second-tier players."  -  Warren Buffett

In an ideal situation, you will buy a share in a business which is undervalued, and over time the share will increase in value to the point at which you are very pleased with the capital gain you have seen in the share price.  Then guess what, you also receive a cash bonus in the form of a dividend payment!  Sounds like a great concept to me.  :-)

SONA PETROLEUM IPO

At 9.20 am today, the price of SONA was RM 0.395 and that of SONA-WA was RM 0.210.  The combined price of 1 SONA mother share and 1 SONA-WA share was RM 0.605.

The net asset per share of SONA at listing was RM  0.37.  At RM 0.605 for the combined 1 SONA mother and 1 SONA-WA shares, this was a premium of 63.5% above the net asset per share.

The Initial Investors and Promoters obtained their shares at RM 0.01 per share and upon listing, they own 20% of the enlarged company..

The IPO investors obtained theirs at RM 0.50 per share  and upon listing, they own 80% of the enlarged company..

Updated: Tuesday July 30, 2013 MYT 9:15:31 AM

Sona Petroleum’s warrants surge, shares flat (Update)

BY JOSEPH CHIN

KUALA LUMPUR: Sona Petroleum Bhd opened flat at 42.5 sen, which was the reference price when it made its debut on Bursa Malaysia on Tuesday.

However, the warrants saw stronger interest, surging to 23.5 sen from the reference price of 7.5 sen.

At 9am, Sona shares were down 1.5 sen to 41 sen with 118.3 million shares done. The warrant rose 16.5 sen to 24 sen with 35.87 million units done.

The FBM KLCI rose 1.11 points to 1,799.89. Turnover was 63.51 million shares valued at RM25.04mil. There were 87 gainers, 30 losers and 78 counters unchanged.

Below is the earlier story:

KUALA LUMPUR: Sona Petroleum Bhd, which is making its debut on Bursa Malaysia on Tuesday, saw bids at its reference price of 42.5 sen in pre-market trade.

At 8.33am, there were bids at 42.5 sen. However, the warrants saw stronger interest with bids at 20 sen, which was 12.5 sen above the reference price of 7.5 sen.

The initial public offer involved 141 million shares with up to 141 million warrants.

Sona Petroleum is Malaysia’s third special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) to list on Bursa Malaysia.

Sona Petroleum, which aims to eventually make the transition to an independent E&P company, had secured commitments from six institutions both local and foreign as cornerstone investors, making it the first SPAC to do so.

They are Hong Leong Asset Management Bhd, Hong Kong-based hedge fund Segantii Capital and Davidson Kempner European Partners, along with the fund management houses of the three banks backing the listing: CIMB-Principal Asset Management Bhd, Kenanga Investors Bhd and RHB Investment Management Sdn Bhd.

The cornerstones, who did not enjoy a discount to the 50 sen IPO price, were apportioned 275 million shares out of the 959 million shares for institutions.

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2013/07/30/Sona-Petroleum-sees-bids-at-reference-price.aspx

Warren Buffett - The Long Term Investor

"All there is to investing is picking good stocks at good times and staying with them as long as they remain good companies."  Warren Buffett

Patience and pricing are once again your main allies.

Warren Buffett bought into Coca Cola when its share price was at one of its lowest points, well below the average, and still holds the stock to this day.

Be realistic and you will avoid disappointment

It is worth reflecting on what your objectives are in your investment journey.

Having a clear sense of what you REALISTICALLY expect to achieve will help you to focus on what types of shares you may wish to buy, and having already considered what type of investing personality you are, what behaviours to be aware of and what your risk tolerance is, you can start to search for your investments with a clear sense of why you are going down a particular road.

If you do not have a clear sense of what you wish to achieve, it will be much more likely that you will make a less than optimum choice of investments, and that you may become disillusioned with what you achieve.

Be modest in your ambitions and realistic about what can be achieved. 
-  Do not expect to be right 100% of the time.  Anything over 50% of the time and you are doing well.
-  One of the key skills to learn is a little about how to understand and appreciate a business, and not the share price.  This approach will serve you well.



You should be realistic about your goals.

"In this business if you're good, you're right six times out of ten.  You're never going to be right nine times out of ten."  Peter Lynch

"It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong."   George Soros

"If you took our top 15 decisions out, we'd have a pretty average record.  It wasn't hyperactivity, but a hell of a lot of patience.  You stuck to your principles and when opportunities came along, you pounced on them with vigor."  Charlie Munger.



Expect some of your share to go down, and some to go up.  The more you do your research and the more you learn over time, the relative proportion of the latter in relation to the former should increase.  If it does not, you may want to step back and reflect on what might be going wrong.  

A tolerance for ambiguity will serve you well as an investor, as will an inquiring mind.

Are the earnings of the business relatively predictable or highly volatile?

A couple of important points worth considering in understanding a potential investment is whether the earnings of the business are relatively predictable or likely to be highly volatile.  

It is relatively easier to invest in something where the projected earnings are likely to have a strong element of stability about them.  

Earnings should preferably be consistent, sustainable and predictable.  "The past is so much easier to predict."

Learn from the past and look to the future, as that is where we are all going

The key point is to learn from the past and whilst it is no prediction of future patterns and behaviour, it can help in working out whether something is likely to be over-priced in relation to wider trends and intelligence.

These are some of the initial key factors you may wish to look into in assessing a business, and represent just the tip of the iceberg.  The more you look into and research a business, the more you will understand where it has come from and get a feel for where you think it might be going.    

[For example, how long it will be before we see the re-emergence of sub-prime lending, albeit under a new badge and from a new breed of banks?  Who knows, but once again, when it happens, will you be investing?]

One of the biggest dangers with Investing is Overconfidence

Quote:   

Re: uyafr selection October 2010 batch
« Reply #45 on: October 27, 2010, 10:16:15 AM »
Reply with quoteQuote
Quote from: smartinvestor on October 27, 2010, 10:09:42 AM
Agree with Uyfar...
GenY...please tell the MANY company that also doing well too...
DIGI? KPJ? Genting?
Here is the place we share information and earn $$$ together

yep, do u know how much is DIGI, KPJ Gentings ? hehehe if suddenly those counter drop.. kena kaw kaw, if go up.. the most 5-10%

BUT LCTH, I dont see how it can drop much, but if go up... even if go up 100% it is still cheap and good. So think for yourself, is it worth risking on those counter already too high up or buy a counter which is still rock bottom and rock solid.

http://www.investlah.com/forum/index.php/topic,11510.msg195753.html#msg195753


The above was a post in October 2010 in a blog that I participate.

Here are the 5 Years charts of DIGI, KPJ, Gentings and LCTH performance.



Digi Share Price
Oct 2010  RM 2.50
July 2013  RM 4.70
Capital Gain 88%




KPJ  Share Price
Oct 2010  RM 3.80
July 2013  RM 6.50
Capital Gain 71%



Genting Share Price
Oct 2010  RM 10.50
July 2013 RM 10.50
Capital Gain 0%

versus



LCTH Share Price
Oct 2010  RM 0.28
July 2013  RM 0.18
Capital Loss  - 35.7%

From October 2010 to July 2013:
1.  The prices of the shares of Digi, KPJ have performed very well.
2.  Genting share price remained relatively unchanged over this period.
3.  The share price of LCTH has tanked significantly.


Questions I pose:
1.  Are higher priced stocks more risky than penny shares?
2.  Are higher priced stocks more risky because they have a longer way to drop?
3.  Are penny shares less risky because should their prices correct, the drop will be less?
4.  Why are higher priced stocks priced such, and why are penny stocks priced such?
5.  What are the fears that kept this "investor" away from Digi, KPJ and Genting?  Are these fears rational or irrational?
6.  What drives his enthusiasm to penny stocks?  Greed?  Ability?  Confidence?  Past gains?   Are these emotions rational or irrational?
7.  What single characteristic, if any, distinguishes the gains in Digi, KPJ and no loss in Genting, compared with LCTH?


What lessons can we derive from the above observations?
Please feel free to post your comments.

Investing in REITS

Investing in REITS

Value investors strive to identify investments trading at valuations below intrinsic value. 

The objective is to identify REITS with potential for significant appreciation relative to risk. 

Because REITS are generally regarded as hedges or defensive investments, they may be overlooked during bull markets.

Most recently, REITS in healthcare and industrial sectors have done well because they have both a real estate and a business component.

• Prologis, a REIT with worldwide logistics facility interests and a logistics business to go with it, is a good example.

And during weak economic times, REITS are fairly defensive and often hold up well because of the underlying stability of real estate prices and rent returns.

• That isn't to say they're immune, as has certainly been seen with mortgage REITS and some leveraged residential REITS recently.

REITS and Returns

REITS and Returns

Funds from operations (FFO) is an important measure of a REIT's operating performance. 

FFO includes all income after operating expenses, but before depreciation and amortization.

Growth in FFO typically comes from:

• higher revenues,
• lower costs, and,
• management's effective recognition of new business opportunities.

REITs with a growing FFO are generally more desirable,because this is a demonstration of an ability

• to raise rents and
• keep occupancy stable.

Beware of dividends that are being paid out of profit from the sale of property or from cash reserves; these payments may not be sustainable.

The National Association of REal Estate Trusts (NAREIT at www.nareit.com ) defines FFO as net income (excluding gains or losses from sales of property or debt restructuring) with the depreciation of real estate added back. 

• Most commercial real estate holds its value longer and more fully than other tangible equipment that a business may possess, such as tools or vehicles.
• The depreciation that the accounting process records each year is often overstated.

Current accounting processes may call for depreciation of a building (according to a certain formula) even though the real value of the building may have increased due to outside forces like

• increased demand or
• low supply of vacancies

in the area where the building is located. For this reason, adding back the depreciation is a clearer way to measure the operating profits of one REIT against another.

FFO is more like the cash flow measures used to evaluate other businesses, and in most cases more completely demonstrates annual performance.

Understanding the expected trade off between potential capital appreciation and yield across classes of REITS.

Different classes of REITS
1.  Retail/Mall
2.  Office/Commercial
3.  Hospitality
4.  Industrial
5.  Health Care


Comparison of yield across various REITS
1 < 2 < 3 < 4 < 5

Comparison of Potential for Capital Appreciation across various REITS
1 > 2 > 3 > 4 > 5



Understanding the expected trade off between potential capital appreciation and yield across classes of REITS.

The retail or mall REITS tend to favour capital appreciation in the value of the underlying assets.

• Malls are hard to duplicate and scarce.  
• In an asset inflation situation, the underlying mall property would increase in value faster than other classes of REIT with the attendant appreciation in the price of the REIT share.  
• The trade off would be lower distribution yield.  
• Since malls REITS are highly demanded, the price of the REIT share often increases to such an extent to reduce the yield on the REIT.

On the other end, the health care REIT seems to give the highest yield but trades off its potential for capital appreciation.

• It is easy to conceive that a health care REIT will not have much capital appreciation in its assets if it has a 15 year fixed lease with an operator for its assets.  
• For example, in a particular such REIT, any increase in rent is undertaken only once and year and only at the same rate as the CPI to keep track with inflation.  Even if the asset increases in value substantially, the REIT will not receive any additional income for the increase since it has signed fixed long term leases with the operator.  As such capital appreciation is capped.  
• On the other side of the equation, the health care REIT is able to pay very consistent and high yields to the unit-holders.  
• Health care REITS are as close to being recession proof as any other class of REIT would allow (assuming the operator does not default).  
• Since health care is by its nature also less prone to cycles compared to offices or industrial business, health care REITS are well recommended in period of grave economic uncertainty.  

Ref:
Value Investing in REITS by Attlee Hue

Warren Buffett's Bear Market Maneuvers

July 12 2009

In times of economic decline, many investors ask themselves, "What strategies does the Oracle of Omaha employ to keep Berkshire Hathaway on target?" The answer is that the esteemed Warren Buffett, the most successful known investor of all time, rarely changes his long-term value investment strategy and regards down markets as an opportunity to buy good companies at reasonable prices. In this article, we will cover the Buffett investment philosophy and stock-selection criteria with specific emphasis on their application in a down market and a slowing economy. (For more on Warren Buffett and his current holdings, sign up for our Coattail Investor newsletter.)

The Buffett Investment Philosophy

Buffett has a set of definitive assumptions about what constitutes a "good investment". These focus on the quality of the business rather than the short-term or near-future share price or market moves. He takes a long-term, large scale, business value-based investment approach that concentrates on good fundamentals and intrinsic business value, rather than the share price. (For further reading, seeWarren Buffett: The Road To Riches and What Is Warren Buffett's Investing Style?)

Buffett looks for businesses with "a durable competitive advantage." What he means by this is that the company has a market position, market share, branding or other long-lasting edge over its competitors that either prevents easy access by competitors or controls a scarce raw-material source. (For more insight, see Competitive Advantage Counts, 3 Secrets Of Successful Companiesand Economic Moats Keep Competitors At Bay.)

Buffett employs a selective contrarian investment strategy: using his investment criteria to identify and select good companies, he can then make large investments (millions of shares) when the market and the share price are depressed and when other investors may be selling.

In addition, he assumes the following points to be true:

• The global economy is complex and unpredictable.
• The economy and the stock market do not move in sync.
• The market discount mechanism moves instantly to incorporate news into the share price.
• The returns of long-term equities cannot be matched anywhere else.

Buffett Investment Activity

Berkshire Hathaway investment industries over the years have included:

• Insurance 
• Soft drinks 
• Private jet aircraft
• Chocolates 
• Shoes
• Jewelry 
• Publishing
• Furniture 
• Steel
• Energy 
• Home building

The industries listed above vary widely, so what are the common criteria used to separate the good investments from the bad?

Buffett Investment Criteria

Berkshire Hathaway relies on an extensive research-and-analysis team that goes through reams of data to guide their investment decisions. While all the details of the specific techniques used are not made public, the following 10 requirements are all common among Berkshire Hathaway investments:

1. The candidate company has to be in a good and growing economy or industry.
2. It must enjoy a consumer monopoly or have a loyalty-commanding brand.
3. It cannot be vulnerable to competition from anyone with abundant resources.
4. Its earnings have to be on an upward trend with good and consistent profit margins.
5. The company must enjoy a low debt/equity ratio or a high earnings/debt ratio.
6. It must have high and consistent returns on invested capital.
7. The company must have a history of retaining earnings for growth.
8. It cannot have high maintenance costs of operations, high capital expenditure or investment cash flow.
9. The company must demonstrate a history of reinvesting earnings in good business opportunities, and its management needs a good track record of profiting from these investments.
10. The company must be free to adjust prices for inflation.

The Buffett Investment Strategy

Buffett makes concentrated purchases. In a downturn, he buys millions of shares of solid businesses at reasonable prices. Buffett does not buy tech shares because he doesn't understand their business or industry; during the dotcom boom, he avoided investing in tech companies because he felt they hadn't been around long enough to provide sufficient performance history for his purposes.

And even in a bear market, although Buffett had billions of dollars in cash to make investments, in his 2009 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, he declared that cash held beyond the bottom would be eroded by inflation in the recovery.

Buffett deals only with large companies because he needs to make massive investments to garner the returns required to post excellent results for the huge size to which his company, Berkshire Hathaway, has grown. (To learn about the disadvantage of being confined to blue chip stocks, readWhy Warren Buffett Envies You.)

Buffett's selective contrarian style in a bear market includes making some large investments in blue chip stocks when their stock price is very low. And Buffett might get an even better deal than the average investor: His ability to supply billions of dollars in cash infusion investments earns him special conditions and opportunities not available to others. His investments often are in a class of secured stock with its dividends assured and future stock warrants available at below-market prices.

Conclusion

Buffett's strategy for coping with a down market is to approach it as an opportunity to buy good companies at reasonable prices. Buffett has developed an investment model that has worked for him and the Berkshire Hathaway shareholders over a long period of time. His investment strategy is long term and selective, incorporating a stringent set of requirements prior to an investment decision being made. Buffett also benefits from a huge cash "war chest" that can be used to buy millions of shares at a time, providing an ever-ready opportunity to earn huge returns.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/09/buffett-bear-market-strategies.asp?utm_source=coattail-buffett&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=WBW-6/12/2013-b