A Wonderful Company to Invest for the Long Term (Screen 8)

Chart of Revenue, PBT and EPS.over 13 years

Revenue = Red line
PBT = Green line
EPS = Blue line

Chart of EPS, High Price and Low Price over the last 13 years

EPS = Brown line
High Price = Blue line
Low Price = Purple line

OPQ


This company is Petgas.

The Growth has slowed in this company (Screen 7)

Chart of Revenue, PBT and EPS.over 13 years

Revenue = Red line
PBT = Green line
EPS = Blue line

Chart of EPS, High Price and Low Price over the last 13 years

EPS = Brown line
High Price = Blue line
Low Price = Purple line


























MNO


This company is Padini.

A Wonderful Company to Invest for the Long Term (Screen 6)

Chart of Revenue, PBT and EPS.over 13 years

Revenue = Red line
PBT = Green line
EPS = Blue line

Chart of EPS, High Price and Low Price over the last 13 years

EPS = Brown line
High Price = Blue line
Low Price = Purple line

KLM

This company is GAB (aka Heineken Malaysia).

A Wonderful Company to Invest for the Long Term (Screen 5)

Chart of Revenue, PBT and EPS.over 13 years

Revenue = Red line
PBT = Green line
EPS = Blue line

Chart of EPS, High Price and Low Price over the last 13 years

EPS = Brown line
High Price = Blue line
Low Price = Purple line

IJK


This company is F&N.

A Wonderful Company to Invest for the Long Term (Screen 4)

Chart of Revenue, PBT and EPS.over 13 years

Revenue = Red line
PBT = Green line
EPS = Blue line

Chart of EPS, High Price and Low Price over the last 13 years
EPS = Brown line
High Price = Blue line
Low Price = Purple line

GHI

This company is Topglove.

A Wonderful Company to Invest for the Long Term (Screen 3)

Chart of Revenue, PBT and EPS.over 13 years

Revenue = Red line
PBT = Green line
EPS = Blue line

Chart of EPS, High Price and Low Price over the last 13 years
EPS = Brown line
High Price = Blue line
Low Price = Purple line























EFG

This company is Maybank.

A Wonderful Company to Invest for the Long Term (Screen 2)

Chart of Revenue, PBT and EPS.over 13 years

Revenue = Red line
PBT = Green line
EPS = Blue line

Chart of EPS, High Price and Low Price over the last 13 years
EPS = Brown line
High Price = Blue line
Low Price = Purple line

























CDE


This company is Nestle.

A Wonderful Company to Invest for the Long Term (Screen 1)

Chart of Revenue, PBT and EPS.over 13 years

Revenue = Red line
PBT = Green line
EPS = Blue line

Chart of EPS, High Price and Low Price over the last 13 years
EPS = Brown line
High Price = Blue line
Low Price = Purple line



























ABC

Better Investing

A.  Analyse Growth

Step 1: Historical Sales

Historical sales growth is the first of four indicators BetterInvesting uses to identify well managed growth companies.

It is desirable to invest in companies whose sales growth is strong and consistent and generally growing faster than the overall economy and inflation combined. *

Is the company's historical sales growth rate acceptable for a company its size?
Check growth rate % - have sales grown faster than the competition and the economy?
Check growth rate trend - have sales figures changed direction recently? If sales are up or down do you know why? Are the forces that caused growth in the past the same ones that will create growth in the future?
Does the company deserve further study?

Compare your candidate company to:
Others in the same industry
Peer group average
Industry average

* Review background economic and inflation data
Gross Domestic Product Data
Inflation Data


Step 2: Historical Earnings Per Share

Historical earnings per share (EPS) growth is the second indicator BetterInvesting uses to identify well managed growth companies.

It is desirable to invest in companies whose EPS growth rate is strong and consistent and generally growing faster than the overall economy and inflation combined.

Is the company's historical EPS growth rate acceptable for a company its size?
Check growth rate % - have earnings grown faster than the competition and the economy?
Have EPS figures changed direction recently? If so, do you know why?
Does the company deserve further study?

Compare your candidate company to:
Others in the same industry
Peer group average
Industry average


Step 3: Historical Stock Price Review

You've reviewed the company's historical sales and earnings growth. Both should be growing
1. Faster than the economy and inflation combined
2. Faster than competitors
3. Consistently

If these conditions have been met then check that EPS is growing in line with sales.
1. Check that the graph lines of sales and EPS are mostly straight and moving together in parallel toward the upper right-hand portion of the graph.
2. Compare the growth rates of both sales and EPS using the rates given in the data grid.

Next, determine whether the company's stock price has tracked the growth rates of Sales and EPS. A company's stock price will typically follow the earnings growth rate -- price follows earnings. Looking at the graph you can see the relationship of stock price to EPS.

Steady growth in stock price is an indicator of management's ability to grow sales and EPS and that the market has confidence in the company.

It is desirable to invest in companies whose share price increases as its sales and earnings increase. Price bars show how much movement up and down there is in the stock price each year. Skilled management can control the variables in the company so that the high and low prices travel smoothly upward. More up and down movement means more risk.

Check
Are earnings growing in line with sales?
Has the company's stock price moved in line with EPS?
Does this company deserve further study?


B.  Evaluate Management

Step 1:  % Pre-Tax Profit on Sales

% Pre-tax Profit on Sales is the third indicator BetterInvesting uses to identify well managed growth companies. A good percent pre-tax profit margin shows a company is well managed.

It is desirable to invest in companies whose percent pre-tax profit is increasing or at least staying the same. Examining the most recent five year average helps us determine this.

Is the 5 year average percentage of pre-tax profit on sales increasing or at least staying the same?
Is the percentage of profit consistent over time?
Does this company deserve further study?

Compare your candidate company to

Others in the same industry
Peer group average
Industry average

Step 2:  % Earned on Equity

% Earned on Equity (ROE) is the fourth indicator BetterInvesting uses to identify well managed growth companies. It tells how effectively company management is using the shareholders' money to make a profit.

It is desirable to invest in companies whose ROE percentage is increasing or at least staying the same. An exception is when a company is paying off debt, which is covered in the next section.

Is the percentage of ROE increasing or at least staying the same?
Is the percentage of ROE consistent over time?
Does this company deserve further study?

Compare your candidate company to
Others in the same industry
Peer group average
Industry average


Step 3:  Total Debt

One indicator of management skill is how debt is employed.

Most companies borrow money to help them reach their goals. Companies go into debt to buy equipment, real estate, and many other things. Some industries use debt more than others. Borrowing some money can be very good because it helps the company do things it could not afford to do on an all cash basis. Borrowing too much money can be very bad because it increases risk in two ways:

1. Debt increases the risk to common shareholders because the company must pay the claims from debt and preferred stockholders before common shareholders receive anything.

2. High levels of debt are risky for a company because it has to pay its debt obligations whether it's doing well or not. If the company runs short of money during a recession, the debt obligations could force the company to go out of business.

Check:

Is the total debt increasing or decreasing?
Review the company web site and official reports to understand the reasons for significant changes in total debt.

Look at Total Debt and % Debt to Capital together to understand how the company is managing debt.

Step 4:  % Debt to Capital

One indicator of management skill is how debt is employed. Look at Total Debt and % Debt to Capital together to understand how the company is managing debt.

The percent of total debt to capital helps you understand whether company management is using debt conservatively or liberally. The ratio enables you to make valuable comparisons between the company you are studying, peer companies and the industry.

Some industries such as banks, financial institutions, and utilities typically operate using higher levels of debt. Some successful companies in other industries have proven that they can carry high debt over many years. Younger companies often have relatively higher levels of debt, but because they are young they don't have a track record that shows they can manage it well over many years. This adds considerable risk as an investment.

Check:

Is percent of Debt to Capital increasing or decreasing markedly?
Review the company web site and official documents to understand the reasons for changes in debt levels (company expansion, acquisitions, divestiture, etc.)
Is the company on a "spending spree" financed by debt?
Is the company borrowing enough to help it stay competitive?

Compare to:
Historical trends
Peer Group
Industry averages


C.  Forecast Sales Earnings

Step 1:  Forecast Sales

If the company you are studying has not met any of the BetterInvesting standards you have studied so far, you should discard the company and begin the study of another.

If all preceding indicators have met the BetterInvesting standards then you have more than likely identified a quality growth company. You now need to consider its potential as an investment for your portfolio.

You must predict how well your investment candidate will perform in the future by estimating sales and earnings.

First, forecast the rate at which you believe sales will continue to grow in the future.

Forecast company sales by considering:

1. Historical results -- consistent strong growth
2. Competition
3. Changes in consumer or market preferences
4. Changes in products or services offered

Is your forecast moderate, meaning it does not rely on extreme conditions or situations?
Is your forecast sustainable, meaning it does not rely on events or circumstances that are not likely to occur regularly?
How does it compare to other companies you may have studied?


Step 2:  Forecast Earnings

Forecast the rate you believe earnings will grow in the future. Your forecasted earnings growth rate will establish an estimate of how much money the company will be earning per share five years from now. This EPS forecast will help you establish an estimated high price the EPS would support.



D.  Assess Risk and Reward

Step 1:  Forecast High Price

How high is the price of the stock likely to go in the next five years?

The answer comes by multiplying the highest likely earnings per share by the average high price earnings ratio.

1. The default high EPS forecast is determined by your entries in the preceding screen.

2. The average high PE forecast is determined by reviewing historical data and current PE primarily, and competitive information as well.

Changing the numbers in the boxes changes the forecast.


Step 2:  Forecast Low Price

How low is the price of the stock likely to go in the next five years?

The answer comes by multiplying the lowest likely earnings per share by the likely average low price earnings ratio.

The default values displayed are based on historical averages.

You need to decide whether or not they reflect the company in the next five years and adjust if necessary.

Step 3:  Assess Stock Price

Now that you have estimated the high and low prices for the next five years, find the current price and determine where it falls within the high-low range.

The range between the high and low prices is divided into three zones: sell, hold and buy.

1. If the current price is in the top range, the stock is in the sell range.

2. If the current price is in the middle range, the stock is in the hold range.

3. If the current price is in the lower range, the stock is in the buying range.

Step 4:  Determine Potential Gain vs. Loss

Even though well considered, forecasts are not certain.

By comparing the current price to

1. Your forecast high price and
2. Your forecast low price

you determine your potential gain and potential loss.

It is desirable to invest in companies offering a potential gain at least three times the potential loss.


E.  Determine 5 Year Potential

Determine 5 Year Potential

Compounded Return is the projected annual price appreciation plus the projected average annual yield.

The Price Appreciation is the increase in the price of the stock, assuming you sold the stock at its projected high price.

The Yield is the projected average annual return on the price, paid as a dividend. Yield is calculated by dividing the dividend by the purchase price of the stock.

If the company performs as well as you expect, and you sell the stock at the forecast high price, this will be your financial return.





Better Investing - Core SSG
http://www.betterinvesting.org/public/default.htm

http://www.betterinvesting.org/NR/rdonlyres/CB93E207-7341-4225-B609-8197173DFBB9/0/P1JudgmentandtheSSG4pp.pdf

http://www.betterinvesting.org/Public/SingleTabs/Webinars/archives.htm


Stock Research Form

4.0 CONCLUDING DIALOGUE (STOCK SELECTION REPORT)

To complete, make selections from choices presented in each statement below.

1.       The company is (well-established) (new) and operates (internationally) (nationally) (regionally).

2.       The product line or service is (diversified) (limited) and sold to (consumers) (manufacturers) (other companies) (government(s)).

3.       Business cycles affect sales and earnings (minimally) (moderately) (severely).

4.       Interest rates for T-bills are historically (low) (average) (high) and seem to be (trending upward) (steady) (trending downward).

5.       Current inflation rates are (low) (average) (high) and seem to be (trending upward) (steady) (trending downward).

6.       In its industry the company is the (largest player) (in the top tier) (an average or smaller size company).

7.       The company has a (continuous dividend record for ________ years) (an inconsistent dividend record) (no dividend record).

8.       The business cycle seems to be (trending upward) (steady) (trending downward).

9.       The current stage of the business cycle tends to (help) (not effect) (hurt) the profits of the company which suggests (no concern) (caution) (optimism) for the company under review.

4.1 YOUR PROJECTIONS ON THE SSG (SUMMARY)
	Projection	Rationale
Sales Growth Rate (%)
EPS Growth Rate (%)
High P/E
Low P/E
Low Price
% Payout
4.2 YOUR FINAL RECOMMENDATION (BUY, SELL, HOLD)

When to Sell?

Selling “Myths”
• MYTH – Once a stock has doubled our investment it is time to sell.
• MYTH – Wait until a stock is back to even before selling.
• MYTH – Sell if the stock price falls 10% (or some other %) below the
purchase price.
• MYTH – Only sell when your SSG says “Sell.”
• MYTH – If a company is meeting our growth expectations, then do
not sell.
• MYTH – Don’t sell a stock until you have found a good replacement.
• MYTH – Sell everything when we are going into a bear market.
• MYTH – Don’t sell because it’s a “good company.”

Valid Reasons to Sell
• When something is truly wrong with the
business and it won’t likely be fixed within a
year
• When the stock price has risen so much that
future gains are unlikely.
• When you find a better stock. Frequently this is
a back‐door way of exiting a weak holding.

How can you become a better seller?
•Write it down – have written rules for selling just like you do
when buying
•For an investment club – rotate stock assignments so one person
isn’t identified with “her” or “his” stock
•Remember, stocks are a means to an end. The goal is to grow
your wealth. You aren’t being disloyal to a stock if you sell it.

http://www.betterinvesting.org/NR/rdonlyres/12386A1B-284F-4E75-B02C-D9396B363B26/0/StockUpFeb2015Slides4pp.pdf

Breaking the Slow-Growth Myth of Consumer Staple Companies

By Stanley Lim Peir Shenq, CFA - March 29, 2016 

---

• 0
  inShare

Some investors think that consumer staple companies are slow-growing, lumbering companies whose stocks do not provide much opportunity for high capital gains. They may be wildly mistaken.

To show why that’s so, let’s take a look at two large consumer staple companies that are listed in Singapore and Malaysia. They are Thai Beverage Company Limited (SGX:Y92)and Nestle (Malaysia) Berhad (KLSE:4707.KL).

Thai Beverage produces and distributes alcoholic beverages, non-alcoholic beverages, and snacks mainly in Thailand. Nestle (Malaysia), on the other hand, is a food and beverage conglomerate that sources the bulk of its revenue from Malaysia.

If you had invested in either of them over the past 10 years, you would have at leastquadrupled your money as the following table makes clear.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence

More importantly, the duo’s stock market returns have been backed by solid growth in their underlying businesses as well. You can see this in the table below:

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence

A company would see its profit more than double over 10 years if its profit is growing at a CAGR of 8.0%; both Thai Beverage and Nestle (Malaysia) have bottom-lines which had climbed at rates faster than 8.0% per year.

Investors who have the impression that consumer staple companies are a bunch of slow-growing and boring companies may want to rethink that assumption. If a tripling of my investment every 10 years is considered boring, I can seriously live with that.

https://www.fool.sg/2016/03/29/breaking-the-slow-growth-myth-of-consumer-staple-companies/

Investing overseas: What you need to know

Saturday, 26 March 2016

BY YAP MING HIU MONEYandYOU

WITH the ringgit weakening over the past year or so, those of you who haven’t already, are probably starting to toy with the idea of investing overseas.

Diversification across markets, asset classes and currencies is one of the basic tenets of investing. Those who follow this strategy religiously would likely have seen their investment portfolios perform better than those who remained entrenched in the local market.

What used to be considered fairly robust returns – such as ASB dividends of 8% per annum and EPF dividends of 6.5% per annum – now seem menial if you take into account the 30% drop in the value of our ringgit.

It is no surprise then that by now, many Malaysians have accepted the fact that the ringgit may not bounce back to RM3.20 to US$1 anytime soon, and that it is time to diversify their assets by means of foreign investments.

This is good. But before putting your money into foreign investments, you need to know what you are getting yourself into, and carefully consider your decisions before making your moves.

Firstly, how much of your investable assets should you allocate to foreign investments?

The rule of thumb is to allocate not more than 30% of your investable assets into foreign currency investments. The reason for this is that your daily life still revolves around the Malaysian currency, and your foreign investment is merely a means of bolstering your net worth.

Besides, if the US currency weakens, you run the risk of losing a significant amount of money if your primary invested assets were in US dollars. In recent months, anyone who bought into the pessimistic view out of fear that the ringgit would touch RM5 to US$1 would have seen the value of their foreign investment shrink owing to the strengthening of the Malaysian currency. Therefore, putting more than 30% of investable assets into foreign investments would be over-investing, not to mention highly risky.

The second point to consider is, how do foreign investment markets fare in comparison to Malaysia?

If you have not had any experience investing overseas, you may be in for a big surprise. Many Malaysians assume that the investment market overseas works more or less the same way as it does locally. However, this is not the case.

Unlike Malaysia, foreign investment markets such as US, Singapore and Hong Kong are far more open and have fewer regulatory restrictions. There’s also less government support for their market. As such, while these markets enjoy higher levels of global portfolio fund flows, they also experience higher levels of volatility and price fluctuations.

Let us take the example of bonds. In Malaysia, bond investments behave almost like a fixed deposit type of investment – steadily up and predictable (partly due to the accreting value of bond coupons recognised by the fund over time). However, the same can’t be said in other countries.

In the graph, you can see that a Malaysian bond fund (Fund A) moved up steadily over the period of comparison whereas the US (Fund B) and European (Fund C) bond funds experienced higher levels of price volatility and underperformed Fund A. All three funds invest in somewhat similar investment grade papers, only that they invest in different markets. This is mind blowing for most Malaysian investors.

In fact, I had a client who once lost up to 20% of his investment in an Asian bond fund domiciled in Singapore. What made him very upset was that he wasn’t properly advised by the banker of the risk exposure of such a fund. Had he done a little more due diligence or consulted an independent financial advisor before investing into the fund, he would not have been caught off-guard and suffered such a significant loss.

The same applies to equity investment overseas. Many investors would have a hard time trying to adapt to markets that are more volatile than our FTSE Bursa Malaysia KL Composite Index.

The next point to consider is this: How safe is your capital when investing in foreign products? If things are not going well, will you be able to retain your capital at the least?

Let me highlight the example of an offshore commodity product that I once came across. This product focused on physical trading of commodities like timber, metals, aquaculture, rice, plant-based oil, crude oil and biofuel. It supposedly had an attractive track record, yielding double-digit annualised returns for more than two years since its inception. It targets to provide investors with a fixed 2.25% quarterly distribution (i.e. a total of 9% per year).

One of the most common mistakes made by Malaysian investors, however, is the tendency to look at foreign investments through the lenses of their local perspective and experience. At first glance, you might think this investment is no different than any other equity unit trust funds available in Malaysia – a credible alternative investment with good diversification credentials worthy of consideration.

However, the product turned out to be a scam and the investors lost all their money. This is not an isolated case. Due to their limited knowledge and experience, many Malaysian investors fail to differentiate genuine investments from scams. That costs them a lot of money.

Cashflow needs

Thus when investing in foreign markets, it is always better to stick to licensed and reputable fund managers that invest in regulated investments and markets. Lastly, before putting your money into foreign investments, you should thoroughly assess your cashflow needs in order to maximise the holding power of your investments.

A good cashflow management practice is to establish one’s ideal cash reserve before dabbling in investments. For working adults, this emergency fund should be able to cover six months of one’s cashflow needs such as living expenses, loan repayments and any other lump sum cash requirements over the next three years. I recall an incident where a client of mine underestimated the amount of cash he would need to execute his plans of building a bungalow on a plot of land he owned.

Only midway through the construction process did he realise that he was short of cash, after having invested the remainder of his liquid assets in foreign investments. In the end, in order to complete his dream home, he was forced to withdraw his foreign investments at a loss.

A situation like this could have been easily avoided with a little bit more cashflow planning and foresight. Make the necessary provisions for your short-term cashflow needs and you will position yourself to better withstand any unexpected investment market volatility.

Diversification of investments across markets, asset classes and currencies is a recommended risk management strategy for any investor and should be diligently pursued. However, never assume that investing overseas is similar to investing in your home ground. In the case of Malaysia’s relatively stable investment environment, entering into foreign investment markets could be akin to stepping into rough sea from a calm bay – it might come as a shock if you are unprepared.

Conduct your research thoroughly – find out more about the investment environment, the country’s regulations, and study the investment product carefully. Consult a professional if required, such as an independent financial advisor, to address any concerns you may have. Once you’ve considered the above and decided to invest, make sure that you monitor the performance of your investment closely.

The more volatile a market, the faster you’ll need to take action on your profits or losses. Park your profits somewhere safe to prevent losing it to the fluctuating market. If your investment is making a loss, then act fast with a contingency plan at hand.

Remember, the more prepared you are, the more likely you are to succeed. All the best!

Yap Ming Hui (yapmh@whitman.com.my) is a bestselling author, TV personality, columnist and coach on money optimisation. He heads Whitman Independent Advisors, a licensed independent financial advisory firm. For more information, please visit his website at www.whitman.com.my