Sunday, 5 February 2012

Signs at the Bottom

The bottom - or near enough the bottom - of a market cycle theoretically should be easier to call than the top or near top.

The evidence is found in the corporate balance sheets, income statements, P/E ratios, dividend yields, and other quantitative measures.  It is likewise reflected in low ratios for the market as a whole.  The quantitative factors speak for themselves.

The dividend yield on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, for example, usually cycles between a high yield of 6 percent at the market's bottom and a low yield of 3 percent at the top.   The Dow's average dividend yield sometimes stretches beyond these boundaries, but historically this is a trustworthy parameter of undervalue and overvalue.

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