myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.

Wednesday 11 March 2009

HSBC Stock Plunge Prompts Regulator Probe of Trade

HSBC Stock Plunge Prompts Regulator Probe of Trade (Update2)
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By Hanny Wan and Kelvin Wong
March 10 (Bloomberg) -- HSBC Holdings Plc’s 24 percent plunge in Hong Kong yesterday prompted a government probe and the stock exchange to consider bringing forward changes to end- of-day trading processes. The shares rallied 14 percent today.
The Securities and Futures Commission is investigating trades put through at yesterday’s close, Financial Secretary John Tsang told reporters today in comments broadcast by local television. Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd. may accelerate the implementation of a 2 percent cap on stock fluctuations during so-called closing auction sessions, a spokesman said.
“Yesterday’s closing auction exposes the flaw in our stock trading system that allows these kinds of trades,” said Chim Pui-chung, a Hong Kong legislator who represents the financial services industry. “The SFC needs to take responsibility for this and to investigate immediately, and release their findings to let investors know what happened.”
The closing auction process, used by the exchange since May last year, has attracted criticism from lawmakers and investors who claim it distorts stock pricing. The session extends trading by 10 minutes from the original 4 p.m. local time close, during which buy and sell orders are matched by an auction trading mechanism.
Four days after the closing auction was introduced, eight stocks moved by more than 10 percent from the last traded price at 4 p.m., which Hong Kong Exchanges said was due to a rebalancing of MSCI Barra indexes.
‘Annoys The Market’
“It annoys the market and especially retail investors,” said Andrew Sullivan, a sales trader at Mainfirst Securities Hong Kong Ltd., referring to the stock fluctuations during the auctions.
The sessions are an international practice aimed at providing a “fair and market-driven method” to determine closing stock prices, the exchange said in October 2007 when it announced the new system.
Hong Kong Exchanges said March 5 that it planned to implement a 2 percent limit on the changes of stock prices within the auctions on June 22.
“Our plan hasn’t changed, but we can’t rule out the possibility of pushing the plan forward,” spokesman Henry Law said in an interview today. “It depends on how soon the market can upgrade its trading systems.”
All brokerages need to finish testing the parameters they set for the closing auction session before the exchange can go ahead with the new volatility cap, he said.
HSBC Shares Rally
The bourse said in November 2008 that the Tokyo Stock Exchange, Korea Exchange, Taiwan Stock Exchange, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange had price controls in their closing auction sessions, whereas the New York Stock Exchange, London Stock Exchange, and Australian Securities Exchange do not.
HSBC’s 24 percent tumble yesterday wasn’t the result of “panic selling, it was technical trades,” Sandy Flockhart, chief executive officer of the bank’s Asian business told reporters in Hong Kong today.
The stock, the second-largest constituent on the benchmark Hang Seng Index, fell more than 10 percent during the closing auction session, dragging the shares to the lowest since May 1995. The shares rallied 14 percent today to HK$37.60.
“HSBC is a very unique stock and it has an intricate relationship with Hong Kong people’s lives,” said legislator Chim. “When it fluctuates like yesterday it has a huge impact on people’s sentiment and wealth.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Hanny Wan in Hong Kong at hwan3@bloomberg.net; Kelvin Wong in Hong Kong at kwong40@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: March 10, 2009 05:28 EDT

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089&refer=china&sid=aQ_lndHEmwUg

http://www.breakingviews.com/2009/03/10/HSBC.aspx?sg=nytimes

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My 18 points guide to Successfully compounding your money in Stocks

Be a good stock picker.
Think as a business owner.
Always look at value rather than the price. Do the homework.
Buy and hold is alright for selected stocks.
Compounding is your friend, get this to work its magic.
Mr. Market is there to be taken advantage of. Do not be the sucker instead. BFS;STS.
Always buy a lot when the price is low.
Never buy when the stock is overpriced.
It is alright to buy when the selected stock is at a fair price.
Phasing in or dollar cost averaging is safe for such stocks during a downtrend, unless the price is still obviously too high.
Do not time the market for such or any stocks.
By keeping to the above strategy, the returns will be delivered through the growth of the company's business.
So, when do you sell the stock? Almost never, as long as the fundamentals remain sound and the future prospects intact.
The downside risk is protected through only buying when the price is low or fairly priced.
Tactical dynamic asset allocation or rebalancing based on valuation can be employed but this sounds easier than is practical, except in extreme market situations.
Sell urgently when the company business fundamental has deteriorated irreversibly.
You may also wish to sell should the growth of the company has obviously slowed and you can reinvest into another company with greater growth potential of similar quality. However, unlike point 16, you can do so leisurely.
In conclusion, a critical key to successful investing is in your stock picking ability.

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2012/07/my-18-points-guide-to-successfully.html

11 Lessons From Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch taught me:

1. Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.
2. Never invest in any idea you can’t illustrate with a crayon.
3. Over the short term, there may be no correlation between the success of a company’s operations and the success of its stock. Over the long term, there’s a 100% correlation.
4. Buying stocks without studying the companies is the same as playing poker – and never looking at your cards.
5. Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies.
6. Owning stock is like having children. Don’t get involved with more than you can handle.
7. When the insiders are buying, it’s a good sign.
8. Unless you’re a short seller, it never pays to be pessimistic.
9. A stock market decline is as predictable as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you’re prepared, it can’t hurt you.
10. Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach.
11. Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what’s actually happening to the companies in which you’ve invested.

Lynch’s advice had a profound effect on my stock market approach. He taught me that investment success isn’t the result of developing the right macro-economic view or deciding when to jump in or out of the market. Success is about researching companies to identify those that are likely to report positive surprises.

Capital Expenditure

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 25%. Less is better.

Capital Expenditures are expenses on:
- fixed assets such as equipment, property, or industrial buildings
- fixing problems with an asset
- preparing an asset to be used in business
- restoring property
- starting new businesses

A good company will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 50%.

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of less than 25%.

Less is better.

Benjamin Graham's 113 Wise Words

The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons' mistakes of judgement."

Philip Fisher's Wise Words

"The refusal to sell at a loss, while completely natural and normal, is probably one of the most dangerous in which we can indulge ourselves in the entire investment process.

More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could 'at least come out even' than from any other single reason. If to these actual losses are added the profits that might have been made through the proper reinvestment of these funds if such reinvestment had been made when the mistake was first realized, the cost of self-indulgence becomes truly tremendous."

(Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits)

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Here is the overriding primary test, followed by observations on why it is so critically important:

Knowing all that you now know and expect about the company and its stock (not what you originally believed or hoped at time of purchase), and assuming that you had available capital, and assuming that it would not cause a portfolio imbalance to do so, would you buy this stock today, at today's price?

No equivocation. Yes or no?

Answers such as maybe or probably are not acceptable since they are ways of dodging the issue. No investor probably buys a stock; they either place an order or do not.

Here is the implication of your answer to that critical test: if you did not answer with a clear affirmative, you should sell; only if you said a strong yes, are you justified to hold.

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Ideally a stock you plan to purchase should have all of the following charateristics:

• A rising trend of earnings dividends and book value per share.
• A balance sheet with less debt than other companies in its particular industry.
• A P/E ratio no higher than average.
• A dividend yield that suits your particular needs.
• A below-average dividend pay-out ratio.
• A history of earnings and dividends not pockmarked by erratic ups and downs.
• Companies whose ROE is 15 or better.
• A ratio of price to cash flow (P/CF) that is not too high when compared to other stocks in the same industry.

Margin of Safety Concept: Stocks should be bought like groceries, not like perfume

The high CAGR in the early years of the investing period, due to buying at a discount, tended to decline and approach that of the intrinsic EPS GR of the companies over a longer investment time-frame.

Chapter 20 - “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment

A single quote by Graham on page 516 struck me:

Observation over many years has taught us that the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions.

Basically, Graham is saying that most stock investors lose money because they invest in companies that seem good at a particular point in time, but are lacking the fundamentals of a long-lasting stable company.

This seems obvious on the surface, but it’s actually a great argument for thinking more carefully about your individual stock investments. If most of your losses come from buying companies that seem healthy but really aren’t, isn’t that a profound argument for carefully studying any company you might invest in?

myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Wednesday 11 March 2009

HSBC Stock Plunge Prompts Regulator Probe of Trade

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All equity security investments present a risk of loss of capital

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Benjamin Graham

Sell the losers, let the winners run.

Investment Style

Warren Buffett

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