Printing money: an easy guide to quantitative easing

Printing money: an easy guide to quantitative easing
The 'unconventional tools' that the Bank of England will use to fight the financial crisis.

Last Updated: 9:29AM GMT 06 Mar 2009

Interest rates are now as close as they can get to zero without causing malfunctions in the financial system.

In this new world, with the Bank of England shorn of its main tool for influencing the economy, the policymakers in Threadneedle Street have to turn to unconventional tools.

Some have been tried before with differing degrees of success. But whatever the tool, the objective is clear: to keep Britain from dipping any deeper into recession and becoming trapped in a debt-driven deflation and depression, as the US was in the 1930s.

With no room to cut rates, the Bank must instead turn to direct means of influencing the money supply. This is important. The nominal growth rate of an economy can be no greater than the speed at which money is growing, and flowing around the economy. This famous economic equation – the quantity theory of money – lies behind the Bank's decision to create £150bn of money.

Whether it will succeed is another question, but Thursday's announcement means it has thrown its weight behind this new policy of quantitative easing with more weight and vigour than any other central bank in history.

THE BANK OF ENGLAND'S EMERGENCY WEAPONS

Liquidity support

How does it work? The Bank lends out money in return for collateral – usually government or company debt – to instill confidence in the market and provide cash with which to trade. It has been doing this for over a year through its Special Liquidity Scheme and its successor.

Pros The system does not meddle directly with monetary policy – so does not interfere with interest rate decisions – and it directly ensures that banks' balance sheets are kept above water.

Cons Although it addresses liquidity problems –
ie. when financial institutions don't have enough cash to hand – it does not solve the credit crunch, in which banks are unwilling to lend cash at all.

Does it work? To an extent. It has ensured strains on the financial markets have eased in comparison with the early days of the crisis, but the amount banks are willing to lend remains extremely low.

Buying company debt

How does it work? The Bank buys, rather than lends against, the assets of private investors, be they pension funds, insurance groups or banks. The assets are most likely commercial paper (short-term company debt) and corporate bonds. It pays for the money from a pot of cash raised by the Government through issuing gilts – in other words without increasing the amount of cash in the system. This is what the Bank has attempted to do through the Asset Purchase Facility, and is what the Federal Reserve is doing in the US.

Pros If successful, it gets to the heart of the matter, reducing the cost of credit for companies and lubricating the capital markets for companies. Because the purchases are funded by the Government it is not particularly inflationary.

Cons It has proved very difficult for the Bank to get hold of the right type of commercial debt (in other words at a good price, and a type that won't default). Pay too little and you will leave the taxpayer facing a big bill in the coming years.

Does it work? To an extent. The Fed has bought billions of dollars worth of corporate debt, but with little impact on commercial bond spreads.

Buying gilts (Government debt)

How does it work? The Bank buys government debt off investors and banks rather than corporate debt. This is something the Bank had authorised by the Treasury yesterday. The aim is to bring longer-term interest rates down, ensuring that companies and lenders cut their own rates.

Pros: Gilts are gilt-edged, and so have very little chance of defaulting (and if the UK Government has defaulted that is a whole other kettle of fish to worry about) and there are plenty of them around, so are easy to buy.

Cons: It does not make any direct difference to companies' cost of borrowing, instead pushing down government interest rates: nice, but not the heart of the matter.

Does it work? Yes, if by that you mean getting long-term interest rates down. The Japanese did it in the past, but it has not yet been tried by the Fed.

Creating money to buy assets

How does it work? The Bank buys assets off private investors but funds those purchases by creating money (literally, with the push of a button; metaphorically, with printing presses). This is what the Government has now approved. The aim is to increase the amount of money in the economy, which will in turn increase either economic growth, inflation, or a combination of the two.

Pros: The UK faces a possible spate of debt deflation, and there are few more powerful weapons for a central bank to use than its printing presses. It can also aim to kill two birds with one stone and cut the cost of borrowing for companies by making cash more plentiful. With interest rates at zero, there are few other more powerful tools the Bank can employ.

Cons: In normal times, such a policy is potentially highly inflationary. There is every chance the Bank is unconsciously laying the ground for an uncontrollable wave of inflation in the future. Deflation is the big enemy at present but the threat may be overblown, and printing money – quantitative easing – will create a mess of unparalleled proportions to clear up afterwards.

Does it work? Yes and no. The only other time it has been used is by the Bank of Japan. As Japan is still trapped in stagnation, many say it failed. However, there is evidence the Japanese experience would have been worse had it not taken these measures. Some also argue that the BoJ was too slow to start quantitative easing.

The helicopter drop

How does it work? The bank prints money, piles it inside a helicopter, takes to the skies and scatters the cash across the nation. Suddenly, every family is richer – provided they get to the cash in time and have sharp enough elbows. This technically amounts to a tax rebate for everyone funded by money creation, and was christened a "helicopter drop" of money by economist Milton Friedman. In his eyes it was the most dramatic way for the central bank to get money out into the streets.

Pros: This instantly gets money into people's hands and, with any luck, gets them spending it in the high street. Those who don't spend can use it to pay off debt, which isn't such a bad thing either.

Cons It is so radical a policy it might scare away international investors from the UK. It displays a disregard for controlling inflation that could also send sterling plunging. It will summon up even more vivid comparisons with Zimbabwe and Weimar Germany.

Does it work? It has never been properly tried before. The Japanese and Koreans have experimented with issuing vouchers to their citizens in the hope of encouraging them to spend but these were – importantly – not funded with created money. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is convinced, however, that in desperandum it would pump up a deflated economy.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/4944762/Printing-money-an-easy-guide-to-quantitative-easing.html