Wednesday 3 June 2009

Company Recovery after a correction, panic or bubble-bursting situation.



1. Companies with durable competitive advantage

a) Correction or panic during a bull market: Any company with a durable competitive advantage will eventually recover after a market correction or panic during a bull market.

b) Bubble-bursting situation: But beware: In a bubble-bursting situation,during which stock prices trade in excess of 40 times earnings and then fall to single-digit PEs, it may take years for them to fully recover. After the crash of 1973-74, it took Capital Cities and Philip Morris until 1977 to match their 1972 bull market highs. It took Coca-Cola until 1985 to match its 1972 bull market high of $25 a share. On the other hand, if you bought during the crash, as Warren Buffett did, it didn't take you long to make a fortune.



2. Companies of the price-competitive type

Be warned: Companies of the price-competitive type may never again see their bull market highs, which means that investors can suffer real and permanent losses of capital if they buy them during a bubble.



Take Home Lessons

The bull/bear market cycle offers many buying opportunities for the selective contrarian investor.

The most important aspect of these buying opportunities is that they offer the investor the chance to buy into durable-competitive-advantage companies that have nothing wrong with them other than sinking stock prices.

The herd mentality of the shortsighted stock market creates buying opportunities for both you and Warren.

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