Tuesday 28 July 2009

Timing is of no real value to the investor unless it coincides with pricing

  1. There is one aspect of the "timing" philosophy which seems to have escaped everyone's notice.
  2. Timing is of great psychological importance to the speculator because he wants to make his profit in a hurry. The idea of waiting a year before his stock moves up is repugnant to him.
  3. But a waiting period, as such, is of no consequence to the investor.
  4. What advantage is there to him in having his money uninvested until he receives some (presumably) trustworthy signal that the time has come to buy?
  5. He enjoys an advantage only if by waiting he succeeds in buying later at a sufficiently lower price to offset his loss of dividend income.
  6. What this means is that timing is of no real value to the investor unless it coincides with pricing - that is, unless it enables him to repurchase his shares at substantially under his previous selling price.

Ref: Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham

Comment:

For the investor who sold at the high of the market, "timing" is of no real value, unless it enables him to repurchase his shares in the future at substantially lower than his previous selling price.

Many good quality stocks, badly sold down during the recent severe bear market, have risen above their previous highs.

Those who sold good quality stocks in the recent severe bear market would not have benefited unless they have also bought these shares back at substantially lower prices during the depth of the bear market.

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