Sunday 24 January 2010

Looking at the investment world through a stockpicker's eyes (1)

Keep your eyes opened


You can begin to gather information every time you walk into a McDonald's, a Sunglass Hut International, or any other store that's owned by a publicly traded company.  And if you work in the store, so much the better.


You can see for yourself whether the operation is efficient or sloppy, overstaffed or understaffed, well-organized or chaotic.  You can gauge the morale of your fellow employees.  You get a sense of whether management is reckless or careful with money.


If you're out front with the customers, you can size up the crowd. 
  • Are they lining up at the cash register, or does the place look empty? 
  • Are they happy with the merchandise, or do they complain a lot? 
These little details can tell you a great deal about the quality of the parent company itself. 
  • Have you ever seen a messy Gap or an empty McDonald's? 
The employees at any of the Gap outlets or the McDonald's franchises could have noticed long ago how fantastically successful these operations have been and invested their spare cash accordingly.


A store doesn't have to fall apart to lose customers.  It will lose customers when another store comes along that offers better merchandise and better service, for the same prices or lower prices.  Employees are among the first to know when a competitor is luring the clients away.  There's nothing to stop them from investing in the competitors. 


Even if you don't have a job in a publicly traded company, you can see what's going on from the customer angle. 
  • Every time you shop in a store, eat a hamburger, or buy new sunglasses, you're getting valuable input. 
  • By browsing around, you can see what's selling and what isn't. 
  • By watching your friends, you know which computers they're buying, which brand of soda they're drinking, which movies they're watching, whether Reeboks are in or out. 
These are all important clues that can lead you to the right stocks.


You'd be surprised how many adults fail to follow up on such clues.  Millions of people work in industries where they come in daily contact with potential investments and never take advantage of their front-row seat. 
  • Doctors know which drug companies make the best drugs, but they don't always buy the drug stocks. 
  • Bankiers know which banks are the strongest and have the lowest expenses and make the smartest loans, but they don't necessarily buy the bank stocks. 
  • Store manangers and the people who run malls have access to the monthly sales figures, so they know for sure which retailers are selling the most merchandise.  But how many mall managers have enriched themselves by investing in specialty retail stocks.


Once you start looking at the world through a stockpicker's eyes, where everything is a potential investment, you begin to notice the companies that do business with the companies that got your attention in the first place.
  • If you work in a hospital, you come into contact with companies that make sutures, surgical gowns, sysringes, beds and bed pans, X-ray equipment, EKG machines; companies that help the hospital keep its costs down; companies that write the health insurance; companies that handle the billing. 
  • The grocery store is another hotbed of companies; dozens of them are represented in each aisle.
You also begin to notice when a competitor is doing a better job than the company that hired you. 
  • When people were lining up to buy Chrysler minivans, it wasn't just the Chrysler salesmen who realized Chrysler was on its way to making record profits. 
  • It was also the Buick salesmen down the block, who sat around their empty showroom and realized that a lot of Buick customers must have switched to Chrysler.

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