myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.

Saturday 4 September 2010

Jim Slater

Ten great investors

5. Jim Slater

Job description
No official position. Slater manages his own money through a private company.

Investment style
Flexible, but he is best known as for his interest in stocks that offer growth-at-a-reasonable-price (GARP).

Profile
Slater trained as an accountant. He first became interested in investment in the Sixties, while a director at a British Leyland subsidiary. After publicising his methods via a column in the Sunday Times, he launched the investment conglomerate Slater Walker, which he chaired until 1973. The company was known for its aggressive acquisitions in every area from banking to property. It collapsed in the 1973-4 recession, leaving Slater bankrupt to the tune of about £4m in today's currency.

He fought his way back to prosperity through private property deals and writing for small investors. In 1990, he published his main work, The Zulu Principle. This popularised the use of a financial ratio devised in America, known as the PEG, or Price:Earnings Growth Ratio. He has since devised a monthly publication called Company REFS (Really Essential Financial Statistics), which helps investors to apply his system by listing PEGs and other key ratios and information on all UK companies.

Now living in Surrey, but far from retired, Slater is still very active in educating investors through his books and lectures. He is also a major shareholder in a variety of small companies, and puts a good deal of money into charitable causes and sports sponsorships.

Long-term returns
Not known.

Biggest success
Slater's own sharedealings are mostly private. But in 1996-7, he is known to have built up a substantial holding in Blacks Leisure. After selling a lossmaking division, this sports retailer staged a spectacular recovery from around 50p to a high of 549p just 17 months later in May 1997, delivering gains of 1,000%.

Method and guidelines
The stock market is a constantly unfolding drama which shifts repeatedly from scene to scene as conditions fluctuate. It is thus unwise to stick rigidly to any one method or type of asset. However, advises Slater:

"I suggest that for most private investors their first (and possibly final) area of specialisation should be growth shares. They are by far the most rewarding investments. The upside is unlimited and, if the right companies are picked, the shares can be held for many years, during which they should multiply the original stake many times."
Source: The Zulu Principle

The best shares to buy are those with high forecast earnings growth and a relatively low prospective P/E, i.e. a low Price:Earnings Growth ratio (PEG). A share is reckoned to be fair value when this ratio is 1.0.

Search for shares with PEGs

no higher than 0.75.
ideally, 0.66 or lower.

Forward P/E

15

Forward EPS
growth (%)

÷ 20

Forward PEG

= 0.75

The appeal of a low PEG is that it offers scope for the shares to earn a higher P/E (known as a 're-rating') once the market recognises the earnings potential. Thus the price should rise by the same percentage as the earnings, plus a higher multiple of those earnings - a 'double whammy' effect.

When selecting shares, rely on figures and financial ratios rather than qualitative judgment. Click here for a list of quantitative criteria.

(Ask your broker for all the relevant figures, or consult Company REFS. You can find forecast EPS and P/E ratios on the Companies page of the Hemmington Scott website by clicking on 'Brokers' Consensus'.)

Consider selling when one of the following occurs:

The prospective PEG reaches 1.2 or higher.
The story changes for the worse, such that the figures and factors that first attracted you to the company no longer apply
An even more attractive investment opportunity presents itself.

Key sayings
"Become as expert as possible in your chosen niche market. You will achieve your objective, like Montgomery and Napoleon before him, by concentrating your attack."

"Investment is the art of the specific and selection is far more important than timing."

"The price of growth shares can only increase due to earnings growth and a status change in the multiple [the P/E ratio]. The latter is often much more important than the former."

"Elephants don't gallop - but fleas can jump to over two hundred times their own height"

(i.e. smaller companies tend to grow much more rapidly than larger ones).

Further information
Start by reading Slater's primer, Investment Made Easy and visiting his webpages. These will prepare you for the more advanced material in The Zulu Principle and Beyond the Zulu Principle. After that, you may wish to sample Slater's monthly newsletter Investing for Growth.

http://www.incademy.com/courses/Ten-great-investors/Jim-Slater/5/1040/10002

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My 18 points guide to Successfully compounding your money in Stocks

Be a good stock picker.
Think as a business owner.
Always look at value rather than the price. Do the homework.
Buy and hold is alright for selected stocks.
Compounding is your friend, get this to work its magic.
Mr. Market is there to be taken advantage of. Do not be the sucker instead. BFS;STS.
Always buy a lot when the price is low.
Never buy when the stock is overpriced.
It is alright to buy when the selected stock is at a fair price.
Phasing in or dollar cost averaging is safe for such stocks during a downtrend, unless the price is still obviously too high.
Do not time the market for such or any stocks.
By keeping to the above strategy, the returns will be delivered through the growth of the company's business.
So, when do you sell the stock? Almost never, as long as the fundamentals remain sound and the future prospects intact.
The downside risk is protected through only buying when the price is low or fairly priced.
Tactical dynamic asset allocation or rebalancing based on valuation can be employed but this sounds easier than is practical, except in extreme market situations.
Sell urgently when the company business fundamental has deteriorated irreversibly.
You may also wish to sell should the growth of the company has obviously slowed and you can reinvest into another company with greater growth potential of similar quality. However, unlike point 16, you can do so leisurely.
In conclusion, a critical key to successful investing is in your stock picking ability.

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2012/07/my-18-points-guide-to-successfully.html

11 Lessons From Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch taught me:

1. Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.
2. Never invest in any idea you can’t illustrate with a crayon.
3. Over the short term, there may be no correlation between the success of a company’s operations and the success of its stock. Over the long term, there’s a 100% correlation.
4. Buying stocks without studying the companies is the same as playing poker – and never looking at your cards.
5. Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies.
6. Owning stock is like having children. Don’t get involved with more than you can handle.
7. When the insiders are buying, it’s a good sign.
8. Unless you’re a short seller, it never pays to be pessimistic.
9. A stock market decline is as predictable as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you’re prepared, it can’t hurt you.
10. Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach.
11. Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what’s actually happening to the companies in which you’ve invested.

Lynch’s advice had a profound effect on my stock market approach. He taught me that investment success isn’t the result of developing the right macro-economic view or deciding when to jump in or out of the market. Success is about researching companies to identify those that are likely to report positive surprises.

Capital Expenditure

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 25%. Less is better.

Capital Expenditures are expenses on:
- fixed assets such as equipment, property, or industrial buildings
- fixing problems with an asset
- preparing an asset to be used in business
- restoring property
- starting new businesses

A good company will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 50%.

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of less than 25%.

Less is better.

Benjamin Graham's 113 Wise Words

The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons' mistakes of judgement."

Philip Fisher's Wise Words

"The refusal to sell at a loss, while completely natural and normal, is probably one of the most dangerous in which we can indulge ourselves in the entire investment process.

More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could 'at least come out even' than from any other single reason. If to these actual losses are added the profits that might have been made through the proper reinvestment of these funds if such reinvestment had been made when the mistake was first realized, the cost of self-indulgence becomes truly tremendous."

(Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits)

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Here is the overriding primary test, followed by observations on why it is so critically important:

Knowing all that you now know and expect about the company and its stock (not what you originally believed or hoped at time of purchase), and assuming that you had available capital, and assuming that it would not cause a portfolio imbalance to do so, would you buy this stock today, at today's price?

No equivocation. Yes or no?

Answers such as maybe or probably are not acceptable since they are ways of dodging the issue. No investor probably buys a stock; they either place an order or do not.

Here is the implication of your answer to that critical test: if you did not answer with a clear affirmative, you should sell; only if you said a strong yes, are you justified to hold.

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Ideally a stock you plan to purchase should have all of the following charateristics:

• A rising trend of earnings dividends and book value per share.
• A balance sheet with less debt than other companies in its particular industry.
• A P/E ratio no higher than average.
• A dividend yield that suits your particular needs.
• A below-average dividend pay-out ratio.
• A history of earnings and dividends not pockmarked by erratic ups and downs.
• Companies whose ROE is 15 or better.
• A ratio of price to cash flow (P/CF) that is not too high when compared to other stocks in the same industry.

Margin of Safety Concept: Stocks should be bought like groceries, not like perfume

The high CAGR in the early years of the investing period, due to buying at a discount, tended to decline and approach that of the intrinsic EPS GR of the companies over a longer investment time-frame.

Chapter 20 - “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment

A single quote by Graham on page 516 struck me:

Observation over many years has taught us that the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions.

Basically, Graham is saying that most stock investors lose money because they invest in companies that seem good at a particular point in time, but are lacking the fundamentals of a long-lasting stable company.

This seems obvious on the surface, but it’s actually a great argument for thinking more carefully about your individual stock investments. If most of your losses come from buying companies that seem healthy but really aren’t, isn’t that a profound argument for carefully studying any company you might invest in?

myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Saturday 4 September 2010

Jim Slater

Ten great investors

5. Jim Slater

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All equity security investments present a risk of loss of capital

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Benjamin Graham

Sell the losers, let the winners run.

Investment Style

Warren Buffett

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