What we must also have is a plan for HOW MUCH to invest n the stock market in the first place.
It makes sense for almost everyone to have a significant portion of their assets in stocks. Just as important, few people should put all their money in stocks. Whether you choose to invest 80% of your savings in stocks, or 40% in stocks depends in part on individual circumstances and in part on how human you really are.
An investment strategy where 100% of your assets are invested in the stock market can result in a drop of 30%, 40% or even more in your net worth in any given year (of course, many people learned this the hard way in recent years). Since most of us are only human, we cannot take a drop of this size without opting for survival. That means either panicking out or being forced to sell at just the wrong time
In fact, if we start with the premise that we cannot handle a 40% drop, then putting 100% of our money in the stock market is a strategy that is almost guaranteed to fail at some inopportune time down the road.
Obviously, if we invest only 50% of our assets in stocks, a market drop of 40% would result in losing "only" 20% of our net worth. As painful as this still might be, if we maintain the proper long-term perspective, some of us might be better able to withstand a drop of this size without running for our lives.
Whether you choose to place 80% of your assets in stocks or 40%, that percentage should be based largely on how much pain you can take on the downside and still hang in there.
Pick a number. What percentage of your assets do you feel comfortable investing in stocks?
The important thing is to choose a portion of your assets to invest in the stock market—and stick with it! For most people, this number could be between 40 percent and 80 percent of investable assets, but each case is too individual to give a range that works for everyone.
Whatever number you do choose, though, I can guarantee one thing: at some point you will regret your decision. Being only human, when the market goes down you will regret putting so much into stocks. If the market goes up, the opposite will happen—you’ll wonder why you were such a chicken in the first place. That’s just the way it is. (Actually, according to behavioral finance theory, that’s just the way you is!)
So here’s what we’re going to do. Against my better judgment, we’re going to give you some rope to play with. Once you pick your number, let’s say 60 percent in stocks, you can adjust your exposure up or down by 10 percent whenever you want. So you can go down to 50 percent invested in stocks and up to 70 percent, but that’s it. You can’t sell everything when things go against you, and you can’t jump in with both feet and invest 100 percent when everything is rocking and rolling your way. It’s not allowed! (In any event, doing this would put you in serious violation of our plan!)
Small investors will have a huge advantage over professionals
And here’s the big secret: if you actually follow our plan, small investors will have a huge advantage over professionals—an advantage that has only been growing larger every year. Of course, you would think that with all the newly minted MBAs heading to Wall Street each year, the proliferation of giant hedge funds over the last few decades, the growth of professionally managed mutual funds and ETFs, the increasingly widespread availability of instant news and timely company information, and the mushrooming ability to crunch massive amounts of company and economic data at an affordable price, the competition to beat the market would actually be growing fiercer with each passing year. And in some ways it is. But in one important way, perhaps the most important, the competition is actually getting easier.
The truth is that it is really hard to be a professional stock market investor today.
It’s just that it’s really hard to look at returns every day and every month, to receive analysis every month or every quarter, and still keep a long-term perspective. Most individual and institutional investors can’t do it. They can’t help analyzing the short-term information they do have, even if it’s relatively meaningless over the long term. On the bright side, as the market has become more institutionalized and performance information and statistics have become more ubiquitous, the advantages for those who can maintain a long-term perspective have only grown.
For those investing in individual stocks, the benefits to looking past the next quarter or the next year, to investing in companies that may take several years before they can show good results, to truly taking a long-term perspective when evaluating a stock investment remain as large, if not larger, than they have ever been.
Remember from early in our journey, the value of a business comes from all the cash earnings we expect to collect from that business over its lifetime. Earnings from the next few years are usually only a very small portion of this value. Yet most investment professionals, stuck in an environment where short-term performance is a real concern, often feel forced to focus on short-term business and economic issues rather than on long-term value. This is great news and a growing advantage for individual and professional investors who can truly maintain a long-term investment perspective.
This focus on the short term by professionals is also a huge advantage for individual investors
Luckily, since it’s particularly hard for most nonprofessionals to calculate values for individual stocks, this focus on the short term by professionals is also a huge advantage for individual investors who follow an intelligently and logically designed strategy. Because value strategies often don’t work over shorter time frames, institutional pressures and individual instincts will continue to make it difficult for most investors to stick with them over the long term. For these investors, several years is simply too long to wait.
Hanging in there will be tough for us, too. But as individual investors, we have some major advantages over the large institutions. We don’t have to answer to clients. We don’t have to provide daily or monthly returns. We don’t have to worry about staying in business. We just have to set up rules ahead of time that help us stay with our plan over the long term. We have to choose an allocation to stocks that is appropriate for our individual circumstances and then stick with it. When we feel like panicking after a large market drop or ditching our value strategy after a period of underperformance, we can—but only within our preset limits. When things are going great and we want to buy more, no problem, we can—we just can’t buy too much.
So there it is. We have a strategy that beats the market. We have a plan that will help us hang in there.
And, as individual investors, we have some major advantages over the investment professionals. All we need now is a little more encouragement. Perhaps a final visit with Benjamin Graham will help push us on our way.
In an interview shortly before he passed away, Graham provided us with these words of wisdom:
The main point is to have the right general principles and the character to stick to them.… The thing that I have been emphasizing in my own work for the last few years has been the group approach. To try to buy groups of stocks that meet some simple criterion for being undervalued—regardless of the industry and with very little attention to the individual company.… Imagine—there seems to be practically a foolproof way of getting good results out of common stock investment with a minimum of work. It seems too good to be true. But all I can tell you after 60 years of experience, it seems to stand up under any of the tests that I would make up.
After so many years, we still have an opportunity to benefit from Graham’s sage advice today.
We now have a great plan for how to invest in the stock market.
Finally, for the portion of our money that we choose to invest in the stock market, we should have a better idea
- of how company valuation is supposed to work,
- of how Wall Street professionals should work (but don't), and
- of how we can outperform the major market averages and most other investors.
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