Even if a yield curve inversion does precede recession, it can neither predict the timing, length nor depth of the recession - and, crucially, how stock markets react.
Historically, inversions have happened between six months and two years before a recession - during which stocks have traded flattish, up and down.
All this just means that trying to predict stock market movements is a fool's errand. Narratives, it seems, do not move stock prices. Rather, reasons are provided for stock movements, after the facts.
As value investors, we would be much better off looking at the underlying business, earnings, cash flows and balance sheet instead of trying to time the market.
In reality, most recessions are triggered by exogenous events - such as geopolitics, war, trade conflicts and asset bubbles - that are inherently unpredictable.
Additional notes:
Yields on the long-dated bonds are typically higher than those for shorter-duration ones, owing to the additional term premium - to compensate for inflation over the duration.
The difference in yields between the two- and 10-year bonds is the most popular market yardstick for Treasury yield spread.
When this gap turns negative, we deem the yield curve as inverted.
No comments:
Post a Comment