Knowing where to look for opportunities to invest

Investment Research: The Challenge of Finding Attractive Investments 

Investors are in the business of processing information

While knowing how to value businesses is essential for investment success, the first and perhaps most important step in the investment process is knowing where to look for opportunities. 

Investors are in the business of processing information, but while studying the current financial statements of the thousands of publicly held companies, the monthly, weekly, and even daily research reports of hundreds of Wall Street analysts, and the market behavior of scores of stocks and bonds, they will spend virtually all their time reviewing fairly priced securities that are of no special interest. 

Good investment ideas are rare

Good investment ideas are rare and valuable things, which must be ferreted out assiduously. They do not fly in over the transom or materialize out of thin air. Investors cannot assume that good ideas will come effortlessly 

• from scanning the recommendations of Wall Street analysts, no matter how highly regarded, or 
• from punching up computers, no matter how cleverly programmed, 

although both can sometimes indicate interesting places to hunt. 

Upon occasion attractive opportunities are so numerous that the only limiting factor is the availability of funds to invest; typically the number of attractive opportunities is much more limited. 

By identifying where the most attractive opportunities are likely to arise before starting one’s quest for the exciting handful of specific investments, investors can spare themselves an often fruitless survey of the humdrum majority of available investments. 

Three categories of specialized investment niches

Value investing encompasses a number of specialized investment niches that can be divided into three categories: 

• securities selling at a discount to breakup or liquidation value, 
• rate-of-return situations, and 
• asset-conversion opportunities. 

Where to look for opportunities

Where to look for opportunities varies from one of these categories to the next. 

1.  Computer-screening techniques, for example, can be helpful in identifying stocks of the first category: those selling at a discount from liquidation value. Because databases can be out of date or inaccurate, however, it is essential that investors verify that the computer output is correct. 

2.  Risk arbitrage and complex securities comprise a second category of attractive value investments with known exit prices and approximate time frames, which, taken together, enable investors to calculate expected rates of return at the time the investments are made. 

• Mergers, tender offers, and other risk arbitrage transactions are widely reported in the daily financial press – the Wall Street Journal and the business section of the New York Times – as well as in specialized newsletters and periodicals. 
• Locating information on complex securities is more difficult, but as they often come into existence as byproducts of risk arbitrage transactions, investors who follow the latter may become aware of the former. 

3.  Financially distressed and bankrupt securities, corporate recapitalizations, and exchange offers all fall into the category of asset conversions, in which investors’ existing holdings are exchanged for one or more new securities. 

• Distressed and bankrupt businesses are often identified in the financial press; specialized publications and research services also provide information on such companies and their securities. 
• Fundamental information on troubled companies can be gleaned from published financial statements and in the case of bankruptcies, from court documents. 
• Price quotations may only be available from dealers since many of these securities are not listed on any exchange. 
• Corporate recapitalizations and exchange offers can usually be identified from a close reading of the daily financial press. Publicly available filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) provide extensive detail on these extraordinary corporate transactions. 

4.  Many undervalued securities do not fall into any of these specialized categories and are best identified through old fashioned hard work, yet there are widely available means of improving the likelihood of finding mispriced securities. 

• Looking at stocks on the Wall Street Journal’s leading percentage-decline and new-low lists, for example, occasionally turns up an out-of-favor investment idea. 
• Similarly, when a company eliminates its dividend, its shares often fall to unduly depressed levels. 
• Of course, all companies of requisite size produce annual and quarterly reports, which they will send upon request. Filings of a company’s annual and quarterly financial statements on Forms 10K and 10Q, respectively, are available from the SEC and often from the reporting company as well. 

Niche opportunities sometimes emerges

Sometimes an attractive investment niche emerges in which numerous opportunities develop over time. One such area has been the large number of thrift institutions that have converted from mutual to stock ownership.

• Investors should consider analyzing all companies within such a category in order to identify those that are undervalued. 
• Specialized newsletters and industry periodicals can be excellent sources of information on such niche opportunities.