Bullbear Buffett

Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.

Monday, 24 November 2025

Kelington Group Berhad's Q3 2025 quarterly results

Analysis and summary of Kelington Group Berhad's (KGB) latest quarterly results for Q3 2025.

Executive Summary

KGB delivered a strong quarter of profitable growth in Q3 2025. While 9-month revenue is down year-on-year, the company has successfully improved its profitability through a strategic shift towards higher-margin projects, better cost control, and reduced foreign exchange losses. The balance sheet has strengthened significantly, with a sharp increase in net cash and a lower gearing ratio. With a robust order book of RM1.64 billion and a successful entry into the European market, the outlook remains highly positive.

1. Financial Performance Overview (Q3 2025 vs. Q3 2024)

Key Takeaway: The quarter demonstrates effective margin expansion. KGB is earning more profit from a slightly higher revenue base, indicating improved operational efficiency and a more favourable project mix.

2. Year-to-Date (9M 2025) Performance

Key Takeaway: The divergence between declining revenue and rising profits is striking. It confirms management's strategy of being selective in bidding for higher-margin projects, which is paying off handsomely.

3. Segmental & Geographical Breakdown

Business Segments (Q3 2025):

Engineering (88% of Revenue): The core driver.
- Advanced Engineering (65%): Revenue dipped slightly (-6%) but remains the cornerstone. Strong growth in Singapore (+34%) offset declines in China as projects there neared completion.
- General Contracting (17%): Showed explosive growth (+77%) from new projects in Malaysia.
- Process Engineering (8%): Grew 35% due to a major project in Malaysia.
Industrial Gases (11% of Revenue): Revenue declined by 17%, mainly due to lower demand for certain specialty gases, though liquid carbon dioxide (LCO₂) sales remained stable.

Geographical Revenue (9M 2025):

Malaysia (35%): Revenue down 22% due to a timing gap between project completions and new starts.
Singapore (34%): Revenue up 22%, becoming a key growth engine.
China (25%): Revenue down 23% as projects moved to the handover stage.
Taiwan (2%) & Others (4%)

4. Strengthened Financial Position

KGB's balance sheet is in its strongest position in recent history.

Key Drivers of Strengthened Balance Sheet:

Warrant Exercises: Raised ~RM71 million, boosting equity.
Strong Profit Generation: Retained earnings increased.
Healthy Cash Flow from Operations: Generated RM59.2 million in 9M 2025.

5. Order Book & Future Prospects

Robust Order Book: RM1.64 billion as of 30 September 2025, providing strong revenue visibility.
New Contract Wins: Secured RM1.14 billion in new jobs during the first nine months of 2025.
Strategic Expansion:
- European Entry: Landed first project in Dresden, Germany, a strategic milestone.
- ESG Focus: Actively building capabilities in carbon capture (CCUS), green hydrogen, and bio-CNG through MOUs with industry partners.
Positive Industry Tailwinds: Management is optimistic, citing global semiconductor equipment spending projections (USD125 billion in 2026) and Malaysia's National Semiconductor Strategy (NSS), which has attracted over RM71 billion in investments.

6. Dividends

KGB continues its shareholder-friendly policy, declaring three dividends for FY2025:

First Interim: 2.5 sen (paid July 2025).
Second Interim: 2.5 sen (paid October 2025).
Third & Special Interim: 2.5 sen + 1.5 sen (to be paid January 2026).

This demonstrates confidence in the company's ongoing cash flow generation.

Conclusion

KGB's Q3 2025 results paint a picture of a company in excellent health. It has masterfully navigated a temporary revenue dip by focusing on profitability, resulting in record earnings and a fortress-like balance sheet. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the global semiconductor boom and its own strategic initiatives in Europe and sustainable engineering. The strong order book and net cash position provide a solid foundation for future growth.

No comments:

My 18 points guide to Successfully compounding your money in Stocks

Be a good stock picker.
Think as a business owner.
Always look at value rather than the price. Do the homework.
Buy and hold is alright for selected stocks.
Compounding is your friend, get this to work its magic.
Mr. Market is there to be taken advantage of. Do not be the sucker instead. BFS;STS.
Always buy a lot when the price is low.
Never buy when the stock is overpriced.
It is alright to buy when the selected stock is at a fair price.
Phasing in or dollar cost averaging is safe for such stocks during a downtrend, unless the price is still obviously too high.
Do not time the market for such or any stocks.
By keeping to the above strategy, the returns will be delivered through the growth of the company's business.
So, when do you sell the stock? Almost never, as long as the fundamentals remain sound and the future prospects intact.
The downside risk is protected through only buying when the price is low or fairly priced.
Tactical dynamic asset allocation or rebalancing based on valuation can be employed but this sounds easier than is practical, except in extreme market situations.
Sell urgently when the company business fundamental has deteriorated irreversibly.
You may also wish to sell should the growth of the company has obviously slowed and you can reinvest into another company with greater growth potential of similar quality. However, unlike point 16, you can do so leisurely.
In conclusion, a critical key to successful investing is in your stock picking ability.

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2012/07/my-18-points-guide-to-successfully.html

11 Lessons From Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch taught me:

1. Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.
2. Never invest in any idea you can’t illustrate with a crayon.
3. Over the short term, there may be no correlation between the success of a company’s operations and the success of its stock. Over the long term, there’s a 100% correlation.
4. Buying stocks without studying the companies is the same as playing poker – and never looking at your cards.
5. Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies.
6. Owning stock is like having children. Don’t get involved with more than you can handle.
7. When the insiders are buying, it’s a good sign.
8. Unless you’re a short seller, it never pays to be pessimistic.
9. A stock market decline is as predictable as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you’re prepared, it can’t hurt you.
10. Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach.
11. Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what’s actually happening to the companies in which you’ve invested.

Lynch’s advice had a profound effect on my stock market approach. He taught me that investment success isn’t the result of developing the right macro-economic view or deciding when to jump in or out of the market. Success is about researching companies to identify those that are likely to report positive surprises.

Capital Expenditure

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 25%. Less is better.

Capital Expenditures are expenses on:
- fixed assets such as equipment, property, or industrial buildings
- fixing problems with an asset
- preparing an asset to be used in business
- restoring property
- starting new businesses

A good company will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 50%.

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of less than 25%.

Less is better.

Benjamin Graham's 113 Wise Words

The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons' mistakes of judgement."

Philip Fisher's Wise Words

"The refusal to sell at a loss, while completely natural and normal, is probably one of the most dangerous in which we can indulge ourselves in the entire investment process.

More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could 'at least come out even' than from any other single reason. If to these actual losses are added the profits that might have been made through the proper reinvestment of these funds if such reinvestment had been made when the mistake was first realized, the cost of self-indulgence becomes truly tremendous."

(Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits)

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Here is the overriding primary test, followed by observations on why it is so critically important:

Knowing all that you now know and expect about the company and its stock (not what you originally believed or hoped at time of purchase), and assuming that you had available capital, and assuming that it would not cause a portfolio imbalance to do so, would you buy this stock today, at today's price?

No equivocation. Yes or no?

Answers such as maybe or probably are not acceptable since they are ways of dodging the issue. No investor probably buys a stock; they either place an order or do not.

Here is the implication of your answer to that critical test: if you did not answer with a clear affirmative, you should sell; only if you said a strong yes, are you justified to hold.

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Ideally a stock you plan to purchase should have all of the following charateristics:

• A rising trend of earnings dividends and book value per share.
• A balance sheet with less debt than other companies in its particular industry.
• A P/E ratio no higher than average.
• A dividend yield that suits your particular needs.
• A below-average dividend pay-out ratio.
• A history of earnings and dividends not pockmarked by erratic ups and downs.
• Companies whose ROE is 15 or better.
• A ratio of price to cash flow (P/CF) that is not too high when compared to other stocks in the same industry.

Margin of Safety Concept: Stocks should be bought like groceries, not like perfume

The high CAGR in the early years of the investing period, due to buying at a discount, tended to decline and approach that of the intrinsic EPS GR of the companies over a longer investment time-frame.

Chapter 20 - “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment

A single quote by Graham on page 516 struck me:

Observation over many years has taught us that the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions.

Basically, Graham is saying that most stock investors lose money because they invest in companies that seem good at a particular point in time, but are lacking the fundamentals of a long-lasting stable company.

This seems obvious on the surface, but it’s actually a great argument for thinking more carefully about your individual stock investments. If most of your losses come from buying companies that seem healthy but really aren’t, isn’t that a profound argument for carefully studying any company you might invest in?

Bullbear Buffett

Monday, 24 November 2025

Kelington Group Berhad's Q3 2025 quarterly results

Executive Summary

1. Financial Performance Overview (Q3 2025 vs. Q3 2024)

2. Year-to-Date (9M 2025) Performance

3. Segmental & Geographical Breakdown

4. Strengthened Financial Position

5. Order Book & Future Prospects

6. Dividends

Conclusion

No comments:

All equity security investments present a risk of loss of capital

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Benjamin Graham

Sell the losers, let the winners run.

Investment Style

Warren Buffett

Political and Economic News

Interesting Blogs