Carlsberg

Date announced 11-Nov-10
Quarter 30/09/2010 Qtr 3
FYE 31/12/2010

STOCK  CARLSBG 
C0DE  2836 

Price $ 5.85
Curr. PE (ttm-Eps) 14.56 Curr. DY 3.09%
LFY Div 18.10 DPO ratio 73%
ROE 21.4% PBT Margin 14.2% PAT Margin 10.3%

Rec. qRev 329492 q-q % chg -1% y-y% chq 36%
Rec qPbt 46825 q-q % chg 15% y-y% chq 60%
Rec. qEps 11.15 q-q % chg 11% y-y% chq 57%
ttm-Eps 40.18 q-q % chg 11% y-y% chq 87%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 14.00 Avg. L PE 12.00
Forecast High Pr 7.18 Forecast Low Pr 4.69 Recent Severe Low Pr 4.69
Current price is at Middle 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 53% Downside 47%
One Year Appreciation Potential 5% Avg. yield 6%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 11%

CPE/SPE 1.12 P/NTA 3.11 NTA 1.88 SPE 13.00 Rational Pr 5.22



Decision:
Already Owned: Buy Hold Sell Filed Review (future acq): Filed Discard: Filed
Guide: Valuation zones Lower 1/3 Buy Mid. 1/3 Maybe Upper 1/3 Sell

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr