Thursday 4 March 2010

Buying and holding can be very profitabe until the facts change


Buy and Hold Isn't Extinct, But It Needs to Evolve

By Kristin Graham Mar 03, 2010 1:10 pm
It can be very profitable if investors execute it with the mindset of buying and holding until the facts change.




At a recent CFA market outlook dinner, the guest speakers concurred that long-term buy and hold will under-perform in 2010 and will continue be a difficult strategy to employ in the future.

This is by no means revolutionary. Buy-and-hold naysayers emerged immediately following the financial crisis and housing bubble crash that caused disarray throughout capital markets.

But it was a shocking message coming from a panel at a CFA affair. As a candidate in the program, I am familiar with the CFA Institute’s intense focus on fundamental analysis.

On the one hand, there is some value to this proposition. Throughout the decade, technology has changed the playing field of the market and allowed short-term strategies to succeed. The ability for new news to be almost instantaneously priced into the market upon announcement can cause stock prices to fluctuate irrationally, sometimes based on just numbers or speculation alone rather than the actual analysis of a company.

Further, more frequent and intense bubbles and collapses have caused drastic market-wide swings that cause mass divergence between a company’s intrinsic value and its stock price. The 2008 global financial crisis is a solid case in point.

However, suggesting that buy and hold is dead essentially means that the fundamentals of a company are worthless. The thought of that notion is ludicrous.

(See also, 
Five Investing Myths Debunked)

In many cases, 
investors are extremists. One group believes in solely analyzing fundamentals and buys a stock to hold forever. Another group covers up the name of the company andtrades only on quantitative factors.

But extremism tends to fail. I witnessed it first-hand in the 
investment industry during employment at my last firm. Die-hard buy-and-hold-forever investors refused to let go of overvalued companies they believed in for the long run and snubbed macro event market movement only to eventually end up deep in the red.

Like anything, investment strategies need to change. And they need to be modernized to remain relevant. Finding great 
stocks to hold for a long time combined with trading on macro news and changing valuations seems more realistic than holding a stock forever.

This is precisely why Warren Buffett and his 
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) holding company have remained so successful. As one of the greatest buy-and-hold investors of all times, Buffett’s philosophy has been studied and talked about extensively. Interestingly enough though, his strategy is widely misunderstood.

(See also, 
What Buffett Got Wrong)

Buffett undoubtedly focuses on fundamental values of a company and purchases stocks with a buy-and-hold mindset. He looks for companies with strong brand names, like 
Coca-Cola(KO), Kraft (KFT), Goldman Sachs (GS), and General Electric (GE). But he still trades on macro news and sells when investments become overvalued. In the past, he soldMcDonald's (MCD) and Disney (DIS) when he no longer felt they were worth his capital.

In other words, buy and hold can be a very profitable investment strategy provided investors execute it with the mindset of buying and holding 
until the facts change.

Purchasing a fundamentally strong company when its price is attractive works. Loading up on more of that stock if the price slips on short-term news works. When either a company becomes overvalued or its business model begins to negatively change, selling works.

Exact market timing isn’t necessary. The strategy is simply picking solid stocks and using common sense.

The bottom line is that the buy-and-hold portfolio is not extinct. It just needs to evolve.



http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/buy-hold-sell-strategies-warren-buffett/3/3/2010/id/27112

Basic Steps on How to Find Profitable High Performance Stocks

Basic Steps on How to Find Profitable High Performance Stocks
March 2, 2010

Stock picking can be a extremely perplexing procedure and investors have very different ideas on how to achieve the desired outcome. Nevertheless, it may be very wise to follow some basic steps which will assist you to minimize the risk of the investments that you end up choosing.

This article will outline some basic steps for picking those high performance stocks that we all aspire to find.

You must have firmly placed in your mind exactly the time frame and the general strategy of the stock. This step is very important because it will influence as to the type of stocks you buy.

We shall presume that you have decided to be a long term investor. Therefore you would then be wanting to locate stocks that possess sustainable,good competitive advantages along with stable or increasing growth for the future.

The way to locating these High Performance stocks is by considering the historical performance of each stock over the past couple of years.Once you have found a likely stock you would then need to do a simple business S.W.O.T.analysis on the company. Swot basically means: Strength-Weakness-Opportunity-Threat.)

If you have decided instead to become a short term investor, it might be a good idea to a stick to one of the following couple of strategies:

1. Momentum Trading.

This useful strategy is to keep an eye open for stocks that have increased in both price and volume over the recent days trading or two. You would most likely find that momentum fluctuates rapidly to begin with and tends to lessen off as traders lose interest. Mind you nothing is guaranteed particularly in today’s market place

Usually most technical analysis will support this trading strategy. But my advice on this strategy is to look only for stocks that have exhibited stable and consistent rises in their share price. We are presuming that the idea is that when the stocks are not so volatile, we can merely ride the up-trend until the trend breaks.

2. Contrarian Strategy.

This second useful strategy is to be on the look for over-reactions that occur in the stock market from time to time. Past research has shown that the stock market is not always efficient as we are led to believe. This basically means that share prices do not always accurately reflect the true value of the stocks. This can be used very much to our advantage.

Take for example when a company has just recently announced bad news,like a predicted downturn in future profit.This is exactly is what is happening here and now. All you have to do is follow the daily stock market news to see this occurring.

Trades who trade with their emotions become disillusioned, become fearful, then panic and sell. As so often happens the share price often drops below the stocks actual fair value.

But before you decide whether to purchase the stock which has over-reacted to a bad news announcement, you should always take into consideration the possibility of recovery from the impact of the bad news.

For example, if the stock price had dropped by 20% after the company had just lost a legal case, but no permanent damage to the either the business’s reputation or the product had occurred, you can then be realistically confident that the market over-reacted. And given time the share price would no doubt rise again to its former level thereby rewarding you with a comfortable profit.

It would be prudent on using this strategy to find a list of stocks that have suffered a recent drop in share prices You could then analyze the potentiality of a reversal occurring by utilizing the well known technical indicator of candlestick analysis).

If the charts did confirm candlestick reversal patterns in the stocks in question, It would then be advisable to look through the recent news to analyze the exact causes of the recent price drops to ascertain that the over-sold opportunities actually existence.

Always do researches that will give you a choice of stocks that fits into to your own personal investment time frames and strategies. It is pointless trading in something you are not happy with or unsure of.

Once you have compiled a list of stocks to possibly purchase in the future, you would then need to diversify them in such a way that gives you the greatest reward/risk ratio. One way of achieving this is to employ a Markowitz analysis for your portfolio. This analysis will give you the exact proportions of money you should then apportion to each stock.

Hopefully these basic steps will get you started in your continuous quest to consistently make good profits in the stock market. Plus they will also broaden your knowledge about how the financial markets perform and react. Ultimately it will provide you with a sense of confidence that will enable you to make better trading decisions and therefore greater profits.

I wish happy profitable trading.

Author: Chris Strudwick
Source: ezinearticles.com
http://sellingstock.getherb.com/tag/stock-picking/

Stock prices are easy to monitor; let's reflect on the long term stock prices.

Here is a theoretical analysis of the behaviour of prices of stocks over a 5 or 10 year period.

Stock prices are easy to monitor.  Over a long period, these stock prices in general reflects the value of the underlying business of the stocks.

These stocks can be grouped according to the behaviour of their prices in these broad groups.

1.  Some stocks performed very well.  Their prices climbed consistently and those who have these stocks enjoy good returns from capital appreciations.

2.  Many stocks performed so-so.  Their stock prices stayed within certain ranges, either broad or narrow.  These stocks did not reward their owners well in returns from capital appreciations.  Those who bought these stocks at low prices might have a small gain, but over many years, these translated to very poor compound annual returns.  Those who bought these stocks at high prices might have irrecoverable losses.  Owning these stocks carried with them opportunity costs, provided the dividends were substantial to overcome these.

3.  Many stocks performed terribly.  Their stock prices declined and continued to decline further over many years.  These stocks caused massive losses to those who own them.  The dividends they provided, if any, were poor compensation to these severe losses.

4.  Many stocks performed very well for a few or many years and then declined when they no longer were able to protect their businesses against competitors or for various other reasons.  Some rose again from the ashes, many faltered into obscurity or permanent demise.

5.  Many stocks performed poorly for many years eroding the patience of their owners.  Some might perform intermittently, though many remained in such states for many more years.

The best stocks to have are those in Group 1.   To capture all the returns from such stocks over a long period, buy and hold is the right strategy.  These stocks are few in number in any bourses and often trade at high valuations.  The ability to pick and buy these stocks at fair or bargain prices will be very rewarding.

Buy and hold strategy is definitely not ideal for the stocks in the other groups.  At best, it provides a meagre or average return in one's investment.   However, holding non-performers or losers over a long period of time compounds the losses further due to opportunity costs.

How to pay for long-term care

How to pay for long-term care

Dementia costs the British economy twice as much as cancer at £23bn. But both diseases require care that can prove expensive.

 
Upset elderly woman being ressured by carer, retirement home, care
 home, senior woman with nurse: 48,000 people in care homes forced to 
sell houses, figures show
How to pay for long-term care Photo: GETTY
Proposals for the state to provide free social care for vulnerable older people survived a challenge in the House of Lords this week – but thousands of family homes continue to be sold to pay for long-term care fees.
Many families do not know what help is available from local authorities and others fall victim to means tests that critics claim punish thrift.
The Government plan for free personal care for 250,000 people in England was deemed "unaffordable" by Lord Warner, a former health minister who served in Tony Blair's administration, who claimed it would cost more than £1bn to implement.
But the Lords voted against a motion to delay the home care changes, which would affect about half the elderly now receiving care in their own home. Lord Warner said: "Many of us have considerable doubts about our ability to implement this and not let people down after the promises that have been made."
It was revealed this week that dementia costs the British economy twice as much as cancer at £23bn. But both diseases require care, and this figure has highlighted the enormous cost of long-term care. Many individuals' estates will be worn down to nothing to pay for their care – leaving nothing for their children and grandchildren.
If your estate is worth more that £23,000 you are judged by the state to be able to pay for your own care. Care costs fall into four categories.
• Domestic care – the care of your home for those unable to do this themselves, such as cleaning and cooking.
• Personal care is care of an individual, such as washing and feeding.
• Nursing care is performing medical duties, such as administering medication and changing dressings.
• Accommodation costs, such as the residential element of care home fees.
As most people's homes will be worth more than the threshold, you have two options. You can either divest yourself of your assets – subject to self-deprivation rules, discussed below – and rely on state-provided care or pay for care yourself.
While giving your assets away protects them from being drained by care costs, this option leaves you vulnerable to the level of care the state deems appropriate and when and where it is administered.
Irene Borland, of care fees advice providers NHFA, warns that if you are able to pay for care, for the most part you are better off doing so. "Money gives you choices," she said. "You should ask yourself 'Do I want local authority care?' If you take advantage of state care you could struggle at home for longer than you'd wish to, or end up in a home that is not quite as comfortable as you would like."
There are means-tested benefits available to people in England and Wales. Scotland has its own system that provides free nursing care – although not free personal or free domestic care.
Benefits are awarded depending on the level of care that you require rather than your condition, so one person with lung cancer may be entitled to more care than another person with the same disease.
If you do take advantage of local authority care, make sure you, or someone on your behalf, asks for you to be reassessed should your requirements change or condition deteriorates.
This way you can ensure you are getting the right level of care. If a certain home is no longer able to care for an individual – they need continuing care for example – make sure they are reassessed so that funding can meet their care needs.
Benefits include Disability Living Allowance, Attendance Allowance, Employment Support Allowance and Carers Allowance. Further information is available from your local social services department or the Citizens Advice Bureau.
Andrew Ketteringham, from the Alzheimer's Society said that the system is far from simple, however, and individuals often fall through the gaps – especially if they require specialist care.
"Accessing funding for care is complex and complicated by the fact that people with dementia will have both health and social-care needs. People with dementia are hit the hardest by the current care charging system and many are spending their life savings on what is often poor-quality care," he said.
If you do choose to divest yourself of assets there are a number of ways to do so. Placing property and other assets in trust, or signing over the deeds to an offspring, will mean that they no longer are counted as part of your estate.
If you reduce your estate to less than £23,000 you will qualify for state care and be exempt from inheritance tax. However, you may have to prove that your reason for divesting your assets was not to avoid paying for care.
For example, if you are diagnosed with cancer and then promptly set about dividing up your estate you may find that the local authority has a claim on a portion of your assets.
Ms Borland recommends planning. She advised: "When you turn 65 you should get your affairs in order. Signing over your house to your children well in advance of any care needs will protect the property from having to be sold to pay for care fees."
However, this is not a step to be taken lightly. How much do you trust your children – and, if married, their spouses? Be aware that you could lose your house if the spouse to whom you have given your home is divorced by their partner or is made bankrupt or, for example, a daughter proves less loving than you supposed. Before giving your home away to adult children, go and see King Lear.
Placing property in trust means in most cases you cannot draw on the funds in the future. Under a discretionary trust, however, you can have some money back if the right provisions are written in, such as in a loan.
But any money transferred back into your hands will be subject to the financial assessment. Moving money into a trust can also fall foul of the deliberate deprivation rules, which, like anti-avoidance legislation for inheritance tax, is far-reaching and has no time limit.
A number of providers such as Axa (under the name PPP) and Aviva used to offer long-term-care insurance. They have withdrawn their policies, however, and existing customers have seen premiums increase. Axa said it was no longer viable to offer the insurance as claims outpaced estimates.
Danny Cox, of Hargreaves Lansdown, warns that although a good idea in theory, long-term-care insurance can be expensive. Partnership still provides long-term-care insurance.
Life assurance investment bonds are sometimes not counted as part of your estate. But local authorities interpret the value of these bonds in different ways and will not automatically exclude them.
Another option is to buy an immediate-care annuity. Immediate-care annuities, sometimes called point-of-need annuities, can pay a tax-free income to help meet all or part of the costs of long-term care.
Benefits are only tax free if paid to the care provider direct. Income rates can be as high as 30pc because the annuitants' ill health mean they are unlikely to receive many years' payments.
Mr Cox claims this is one of the better options for those facing the costs of long-term care. "Unlike divesting your assets, you can buy a long-term-care annuity after having been diagnosed with an illness or disease.
You are guaranteed a set income for life and there are certain inheritance tax benefits as well as the cost of your annuity will not be included in your estate after you die," he said. Axa PPP and Partnership are the two main providers of immediate care annuities, further details can be found on their websites www.axappphealthcare.co.uk and www.partnership.co.uk
 You should consult an independent financial adviser when planning to fund care fees. NHFA offers an advice line (0800 998 833) and can explain care fees legislation and regulation, associated benefits and rights to assessment by local authority and the National Health Service (NHS).
It can also clarify the difference between social and personal care and the rules governing non-means-tested NHS continuing care. It can also advise on legitimate actions that can be taken to protect assets and the rules regarding potential deprivation of assets. Age Concern/Help the Aged (which are combining to be called Age UK later this year) are also very helpful and can be contacted on 020 7278 1114.

George Soros buys gold despite dubbing it 'ultimate bubble'

George Soros buys gold despite dubbing it 'ultimate bubble'

George Soros doubled his investment in the world's largest gold fund – just weeks before claiming investing in the precious metal is now the "ultimate bubble".

 
Soros, gold - George Soros buys gold despite dubbing it 'ultimate 
bubble'
George Soros buys gold despite dubbing it 'ultimate bubble'
 
Mr Soros – a legend in investing circles for his $10bn (£6.37bn) bet against the pound in 1992 which forced sterling out of the European exchange rate mechanism – increased his stake in the SPDR Gold Trust in the last quarter of 2009.

Regulatory filings show that his $8.8bn investment vehicle, Soros Fund Management, raised its stake in exchange-traded fund SPDR by 3.7m shares to 6.2m shares in the three months ending December 31, 2009.
The new shares were bought at a price of $421m, taking his total holding in the fund to $663m at the end of December.

In addition, Mr Soros's investment vehicle owns 11,000 call options that will permit it to buy an extra 1.1m shares should gold prices move higher.

Soros Fund Management also increased its stake in Canadian-based gold producer Yamana Gold, buying 60,880 shares to take its total position to 85,880 shares, worth $973,314 at the end of December.
However, the actions of the Mr Soros's investment fund however seem to be at odds with his own viewpoint. During the World Economic Forum in Davos in late January, Mr Soros said: "When interest rates are low we have conditions for asset bubbles to develop, and they are developing at the moment. The ultimate asset bubble is gold." 

Gold hit a new high of just over $1,225 an ounce in December, having rise 40pc in the prior 12 months, and touched an all-time high in euros of €818 an ounce earlier this week. On Wednesday, gold was trading in New York at $1,115.55 an ounce, having hit a one-month high of $1,126.85 earlier in the day.

Mr Soros is not alone in increasing his stake in the SPDR, with new filings also showing that China Investment Corporation (CIC), Beijing's main overseas investment fund, taking a 0.4pc stake in the fund worth $155.6m.
CIC's investment is equivalent to just 0.4pc of the 33.9m ounces of gold maintained by the Chinese government, but is part of a growing trend of major funds investing in the metal.

The World Gold Council said on Wednesday that pension funds began actively investing in gold last year, viewing the metal as a long-term safe haven. 

Aram Shishmanian, the council's chief executive, told Reuters that although the organisation does not forecast prices, he believes the gold market will be "robust' in 2010 in spite of an 11pc global drop in demand last year because of weaker industrial output.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/gold/7259161/George-Soros-buys-gold-despite-dubbing-it-ultimate-bubble.html

Comment:  Irrational behaviour!  But this is understandable behaviour of a speculator.  Why invest into a "bubble"?

Wednesday 3 March 2010

Sterling's slippery slope

Sterling's slippery slope

Telegraph View: the benign devaluation threatens to become a rout

 
The 25 per cent fall in the value of the pound over the past couple of years has amounted to a bigger depreciation than in any single post-war sterling crisis. Most see this as a healthy correction of an over-valued currency, which has given us a more competitive exchange rate just when we needed it.
This benign devaluation now threatens, however, to turn into a rout. For this week's fall in the pound has been prompted not by worries over Britain's prospects, but by doubts about the economic credibility of the Government. The Tories' diminishing poll lead has raised the spectre of a hung parliament, and of chaos and gridlock in government at the worst possible time. The markets have taken fright: as Kenneth Clarke, the shadow business secretary, observed yesterday, it has only been the prospect of a Conservative victory, and the arrival of a government prepared to tackle the fiscal crisis head on, that has held down interest rates and sustained sterling in recent months. The possibility that this may not happen has alarmed foreign investors, for it is uncertainty that spooks the markets.
Given that we have nine weeks before polling day, there is plenty of scope for more damage. The Tories must take some of the blame. The markets have spotted what we have already highlighted: a worrying uncertainty in the Conservative message. But there is a heavier responsibility on the Government. Reports that the Prime Minister is trying to push the Chancellor into a pre-election giveaway are troubling. They reinforce the impression that Labour is not serious about tackling the deficit and that has added to the market jitters. Alistair Darling has an obligation to ignore his next-door neighbour and put country before party, by ensuring a credible deficit reduction plan is at the heart of his Budget.

Looking Into A Company's Financial Health

Looking Into A Company's Financial Health
Posted by lionel319 @ Tue 02 Mar, 10,

After looking at all the reasons for investing in a particular stocks (Step #1 - #4), we now look for reasons for NOT investing in a particular stock.

No matter how good the stock's industry is,
No matter how wide the company's moat is,
No matter how good it's growth and profitability is,
If it is sick .... financially, there is no guarantee that it's gonna survive the next wave of influenza.

Ok. So how do I look at a company's financial health?

 



Basically, I look at a company's financial health the same way as I look at a normal person's balance sheet.
These are the 2 golden questions that you should be asking:-
  • Is the company capable of paying of it's Short Term Interest(Installment) obligation?
  • Is the company capable of paying back it's Long Term Debt?


Let's go through the above 2 points with a case study by looking into a balance sheet of a normal person, a working employee, an engineer, PinkPig, with a net saving of $2000 a month after deducting all basic expenses(food, accommodation, rental, etc)  and other loans (study loan etc).

Let's say, PinkPig just bought a new car, which cost $100k.
He puts up 10% as down payment ($10k), and took a $90k loan from the bank.
He needs to pay $1875/= as monthly installment to the bank.

So far, this is the information that we've got:-
PinkPig's annual savings$24,000 ($2000 salary x 12 months)
PinkPig's annual Installment obligation $22,500 ($1875 monthly installment x 12 months)
PinkPig's total Long Term Debt $90,000 (loan from bank)



Now, let's start drilling into PinkPig's financial health by asking the above 2 golden question, using these financial metrics:-




1. Long Term Debt Payback Time
Long Term Debt Payback Time = Long Term Debt / EBIT
This is basically a measure so that we get a feel of whether the company is REALLY capable of paying back all it's debt that it is owing the bank.

For PinkPig's case:-
- PinkPig owes the bank Long Term Debt of $90k.
- PinkPig's Annual Savings (EBIT) is $24k.

If PinkPig were to save up all his annual savings, how long will it take pinkpig to repay the total loan?
$90k / $24k, and we get around 3.75 years.
Anything which spans around 5 years or so is still an acceptable (and comfortable) number for me.
The key to this is just to have a feel whether the company is really capable of repaying back the Long Term Debts if they were to use up all it's Net Income into repaying their loans.
If you want to have a feel of what it looks like, take a look into Ford Motor's Financial Health here
In year 2009, Ford had a net income of $2 Billion.
You might say "WOW!!!"
Wait till you take a look at it's Long Term Debt .... which is standing at a whooping $133 Billion.
It takes Ford at least 66 freaking years to pay back it's Long Term Debt, by plowing back all it's net earnings into the bank.
And this is by assuming that Ford is capable of earning $2 Billion year in and year out, no matter what.




2. Times Interest Earned (Interest Coverage Ratio)
 mbox{Times-Interest-Earned} = frac {mbox{EBIT or EBITDA}} 
{mbox{Interest Charges}}
 (EBIT = Earnings Before Income-Tax)

PinkPig's Times Interest Earned(TIE) is
= PinkPig's Annual Savings / Annual Installment
= $24,000 / $22,500
= 1.067


The golden question number 1:-
  • Is PinkPig capable of paying of it's Short Term Interest(Installment) obligation?
Yes. He is capable. Only if nothing unusual happens to him.
If something were to happen to him, and his saving drop by a mere 10% to  $21,600, he will have problem with that.
Either he will have to sell of something to repay the bank installment, or he will have his car confiscated back by the bank.
This is very crucial to companies, especially those that can't meet their short term debt obligation.
The only way for them to meet this short term obligation is to liquidate their assets, which will in turn eat into their core business, and eventually affect their long term business growth.
We definitely do not want to be put into a nasty situation like that.
Look for a TIE ratio which is pretty high.
The higher the better.
A company which has a TIE ratio of 10x means that it is capable of meeting it's short term obligation even if it's earnings were to drop 10x due to any unforeseen disaster (eg:- economy crisis).
Once a company is seriously wounded, it's really hard for them to be able to regain back their previous glory, not to even mention about fending of competitors and defending their once-used-to-be-market-leader status.
 

http://lionel.textmalaysia.com/looking-into-a-company-s-financial-health.html

7 Steps To Long Term Investing

7 Steps To Long Term Investing

 Looking Into A Company's Financial Health
Posted by lionel319


I've been planning to come up with this post for quite some.
It serves as my personal check list, so that I won't miss out anything when I do my company stock evaluation.
Most of the Long Term Investing approach focus closely on fundamental analysis, and I'm no different here.
Most of the stuff here I believe, you've seen it somewhere. It's definitely not from me. I'm just reiterating it here, so that it reminds me and serves as written guideline to me.




1. Avoid Price Competitive Industry (link)
Do not invest in industries which doesn't have any edge, whereby price is the only sole factor that wins the customers.
2. Economic Moat (link)
Does this company have any sort of business edge compared to its competitors from the same sectors?
3. Growth (link)
Is this company growing consistently for the past 10 years or so?
4. Profitability (link)
Is this company's profitability matrix improving, or at least, staying at good ratio consistently?
5.Financial Health (link)
How's the financial health of the company? Can it pay back it's debt and yearly interest on time?
6.Compare with Competitor (link)
Compare this company with its direct competitors. How does it fare compared to its peers?
7. Calculate Intrinsic Value (link)
Once everything is in place, it does not mean that we'll jump into the stock straight away. We only want to buy it when the stock price is selling at a discounted price to it's intrinsic value.




This 7 steps pretty much sums up the process that I use to go through while doing my evaluation on a company's stock.
In the near future posts, I'll fill in the missing (link)s, and explain more in detail about each of the 7 points mentioned above.


http://lionel.textmalaysia.com/long-term-stock-investment-strategy.html

Petdag - anticipating it will deliver a higher dividend soon.

Latexx's earnings continue to improve

HaiO defying gravity!

ra

Coastal at 52 weeks high

Tuesday 2 March 2010

WHAT DOES YOUR CHECK-LIST LOOK LIKE?

When evaluating a company, there are so many factors that are beyond our control. We however, through empirical research, do know what INCREASES THE PROBABILITY of us making profitable investment decisions.

What is important is that we FOCUS ON WHAT WE CAN CONTROL in our research and analysis.

As part of my evaluation process, I work through the following check-list:

 http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tQ4K68Jn0moIVrTpDHehdaQ&output=html


Click here too:
Latexx Check List
 http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tdrGHzTw9MgpL_CCG3vGhlg&output=html

How Has Your Investment Process Developed?


How Has Your Investment Process Developed?

I do not know about you, but as time goes by I appreciate the works of remarkable people, in any field, more and more.
It allows me to start any subject not as a complete beginner, but as someone with a good or even great fundamental knowledge of any subject by reading a few books.
A major part, practical experience, is still missing, but just imagine what we would have to go through if we did not have access to the knowledge at all.
Anything we would start would be from absolutely nothing.
A good example of learning from others would be the development of my investment process.

Here is a short summary of the main developments:
  • I started out with a basic correspondence course on the stock market in 198
  • I lost money I pooled with my father using technical analysis
  • I listened to brokers and lost more money chasing the hottest stocks while trading a lot
  • I discovered a book Winning on the JSE by the mathematician Karl Posel that gave me a framework for finding, evaluating, buying and selling undervalued investments.
  • From there I went on to read Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, David Dreman and many more.
My investment process thus moved from a process with no proven evidence of success to one that has substantial proven success with the help of other successful investors. All of this through reading and doing.

Over time my investment process has moved from the use of a few basic financial ratios to check-lists.
Until recently my favourite valuation metrics were:
  • Price to earnings ratio ("PE") the lower the better
  • Price to book ration ("PB") also the lower the better and
  • Debt to equity where I prefer companies with less than 35%
That however changed when, about two years ago, I read a book by Joel Greenblatt called The Little Book that Beats the Market.

The book suggests the use of two ratios,
  • one to identify good companies that earn high returns on assets and 
  • a second ratio to identify cheap or undervalued companies.
Since reading the book these two ratios have become the main valuation metrics I use.

To identify good companies

Ratio 1
= EBIT / (Working Capital + net fixed assets + short term debt)

The higher this ratio the better. Higher means the company earns a high return on its total assets, fixed assets as well as working capital.

Where:
EBIT = Earnings before interest and taxes
Working capital = Current assets - current liabilities
Net fixed assets = Total fixed assets - depreciation (Excludes goodwill and other intangible assets)

To Identify undervalued companies
Ratio 2
= EBIT / Enterprise Value

As with the first ratio a higher value here is also better. Higher means you are paying less for the company in relation to the profit it generates.

Enterprise value is calculated as follows
= market capitalisation (number of shares * current share price) + debt - cash

Enterprise value thus expresses the value of the company to you as a private buyer of the whole company.

Firstly you pay for the market capitalisation plus the debt, which you have to repay, minus any available cash you can use to reduce the company's debt or pay out to yourself to lower the purchase price.

The added advantage of using Enterprise Value is that it already incorporates the debt and cash the company has on its balance sheet. So you do not separately have to evaluate the amount of debt the company carries.


What are your favourite valuation metrics? Let me know in a short note on the contact page on my website.
Go here for an investment checklist example.
Tim du Toit is the editor and founder of Eurosharelab. He has more than 20 year of institutional and personal investing experience in emerging and developed markets. Tim is based in Hamburg, Germany. More of his articles can be found at http://www.eurosharelab.com.

A Comparison of Buy and Hold With Stock Market Timing Strategies


A Comparison of Buy and Hold With Stock Market Timing Strategies

Stock market timing strategies can be long or short term. The strategies are different for single stocks than they are for mutual funds, of course. With single stocks you base your strategy on your knowledge of an individual company. What are the fundamentals of the company; earnings, sales, assets, technology and management. The context of the over all market for the service or product that the company produces is also relevant to knowing when to buy and when to sell.

It is simple to see the point of stock market timing strategies. As Warren Buffet will tell you over and over again, all you need to do is buy low and sell high. The tough part, of course knowing when. It is not possible to always be right, but it is possible to be right enough often enough to stay in the game.

Many experts advise a buy and hold strategy. This philosophy is based on the historical fact that markets rise in value over time, despite recessionary blips. But even in a buy and hold scheme, one must be able to recognize when a stock is in a long term retreat. Technology changes as does the competitive landscape. One need only think of the web companies that collapsed when the tech bubble burst to see that buy and hold is a risky undertaking during a bubble.

Setting limits is a commonly used tactic when it comes to stock market timing strategies. Buying stocks when they are at their highest level is only a good timing strategy when the company is a penny stock that has made some sort of fundamental breakthrough.

Mining stocks are the clearest example of this. If a mining stock hits the mother-load, buying it early, even it has risen to its highest ever, is feasible as you have actual metal in the ground to secure your investment.

On the other hand, getting in at the peak of a bubble without a good reason for doing so beyond the fact that the stock is moving up is a recipe for disaster. For this reason, we can establish a firm Rule Number 1 for stock market timing strategies: do not buy on the bubble; only buy on the basis of a new ingredient in a company basics (earnings, sales, management, assets, etc).

As far as funds go, it is market fundamentals that one must pay attention to. Again, the technology sector gives us prime examples. When the technology bubble started to deflate in February of 2000, the deflation continued well into 2001. Getting out of tech-based mutual funds in the spring of 2000 saved many investors from ruin. Those who bought and held even after it became clear many of the tech companies would not survive paid dearly.

Stock market timing strategies versus buy and hold is a debate that will continue far as long as there are stock markets. The market moves on emotion, but it earns on fundamentals. Day traders make their living on stock market timing strategies. For the average investor, however, buy and hold, but staying informed and being willing to move when fundamentals warrant, are the order of the day.

Taking advantage of stocks is easy when you learn the details of market timing! Get all the information you need today to include market timing strategies in your trading strategy and see significant returns fast!

Stock Market Investing Will Be Made Simpler, By Making Use Of These Guidelines








There is certainly a state of flux in the present day stock markets but that is no reason why you should not learn more about stock market investing. The good news is that there are many useful tips available that will help you understand how to invest your money profitably in the best stocks.
At the very outset, it must be emphasized that success in stock market investing only comes to those who plan their activities before investing their money. In fact, it is also safe and wise to distribute your investments and in addition you will need to also make regular investments plus you should invest with a long term plan in mind.
The sooner you start making investments the better it will be for you as then you can reap benefits that will come your way through compounding. In fact, you should consider time to be the magical key that will unlock the secrets to turning cents into dollars. However, be sure that you also learn to avoid investing in derivatives and also in futures.
The third most important tip is that it does not pay to try leveraging as this is very difficult and in many instances, is even impossible because you cannot accurately predict how stock market trends in the near term will pan out. Instead of this, it makes sense to not buy into a market and the right course of action is to invest only in good stocks.
Now, when it comes to picking individual stocks you need to choose stocks that are a mirror of the much broader indexes and at the same time you need to ensure that you do not purchase single or even handful of stock exposures. It is always safer to spread your risk across different market segments so that even if a particular stock fails, you will have other stocks that can help cover the losses.
Also, before you actually go out and buy stocks, you must determine how well a particular company has been performing and if the performance is up to the mark, then you can go ahead and purchase the stock of that company. You should not allow yourself to be swayed by stock prices that often give an incorrect impression and which seldom give accurate pointers as to the health and profitability of a company.
In addition, when some of your stocks turn out to be duds, you must not hesitate in selling them off as soon as is possible. If you have erred in buying stocks, then you should admit this and get rid of the duds and in this way cut your losses.
When buying stocks, you need to also ensure that you buy into value and not into momentum. Also, be sure that you base your buying of stock decisions according to what your head says, and not what your heart is telling you.
It also means that when your brain tells you to buy a stock, you should buy the stock and not make the mistake of purchasing stocks based on emotions. Buying into large company stocks is always prudent as the chances of earning profits in the long run are higher as compared to other stocks.
This means that it always pays to pick big stocks and at the same time avoid investing in penny stocks because when you are going to invest in small and middle sized stocks, it would require strong expertise to evaluate their profitability, which is not something that every ordinary investor can do.
Check out more about stock market investing and how you can make money. With ETF trading steps you may be able to bring in a nice profit. Head online and find out more now.

Buy the Unloved, 2010 Style


It pays to go against the grain.
If chasing hot performers hasn't gotten you very far, consider doing the opposite.


Categories with the greatest inflows tend to underperform and those with the greatest outflows tend to outperform. Net flows tend to be driven by past returns, so, in effect, they are telling you what areas have gotten relatively overpriced and underpriced. If the market and fund investors were perfectly efficient and logical, flows and prices would only adjust so that everything had a similar potential risk/reward profile.


However, markets and fund investors generally overdo things in both directions, as the markets of the past two years illustrate vividly.


http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=327599

Where will the KLCI be heading?

Market Watch

 
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