Our private investor is back - and he says that savers who are prepared to take some risk will prosper.
Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.
Wednesday, 23 November 2011
Ignore shares and get poorer.
Our private investor is back - and he says that savers who are prepared to take some risk will prosper.
Equity investors: Don't panic!
International Stock Markets (52-week performance)
International Stock Markets
| Key Indexes | At 8:46 PM ET At least 15-minute delay | Change | % change | 1 month | 1 year | LowHigh52-week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 JAPAN | 8,314.74 | –33.53 | –0.40% | –4.20% | –17.80% | |
| Closed for holiday, prices at close 11/22/2011 | ||||||
| Hang Seng HONG KONG | 17,902.02 | –349.57 | –1.92% | –0.69% | –21.81% | |
| Shanghai Composite CHINA | 2,415.36 | +2.74 | +0.11% | +4.23% | –14.60% | |
| All Ordinaries AUSTRALIA | 4,161.40 | –42.77 | –1.02% | –1.00% | –11.02% | |
| NSE 50 INDIA | 4,812.35 | +34.00 | +0.71% | –4.70% | –19.93% | |
| At close 9:01 PM ET 11/22/2011 | ||||||
| STI SINGAPORE | 2,679.55 | –37.65 | –1.39% | –1.21% | –14.29% | |
| KOSPI KOREA | 1,826.28 | +6.25 | +0.34% | –0.66% | –5.32% | |
| BSE 30 INDIA | 16,065.42 | +119.32 | +0.75% | –4.29% | –19.50% | |
| TSE 50 TAIWAN | 4,797.27 | –72.82 | –1.50% | –3.73% | –16.04% | |
| KLSE Composite MALAYSIA | 1,428.63 | –9.36 | –0.65% | –0.71% | –3.96% | |
Tuesday, 22 November 2011
Warren Buffet's strategy on technical analysis
Apr 05 '00
After much research and experience in investing I've discovered a simple strategy which works very well for profitable investing. It's a composite of Charles Schwab's and Warren Buffet's strategy. As you may know, Warren Buffet started with a little investment decades ago and now he's the third richest man in the world with over $30,000,000,000 in stock in the company he built. Charles Schwab is the genius who began the most successful off-price brokerage in the world. Here's what they say about investing and technical analysis:
Rule number one: Buy a company you'd be willing to hold for a lifetime.
When you put your money in a stock, you become an owner of that firm. You're essentially buying part of it and you reap the profit from the shares you buy in terms of earnings per share. Then the company may pay out those earnings per share in dividends or invest back into the company for growth. Make sure that you're buying a firm that you can depend on, even when the market is down. Investing isn't about the quick in-and-out schemes that lose most day-traders money. That's called gambling. Investing is putting your trust and your resources into a firm which you're willing to commit your hard-earned money to. This leads to my next point.
Rule number two: Ignore technical analysis.
Technical analysis is used to predict whether or not a stock will go up or down in the short term. Some people think that they can ignore the fundamentals of the companies they buy based on technical analysis and end up losing large amounts of money. Yet, no responsible financial advisor would recommend or practice buying based solely or largely on technical analysis. That practice is used for what I defined to be gambling. Essentially relying on technical analysis involves looking at the volume of trading, advances/declines in the share price, and trying to determine whether or not the price will continue upward or reverse. For example, a lot of people buy or sell based on momentum. They jump on the bandwagon or abandon ship with the rest of the crowd. Yet, these fluctuations based on the herd mentality do less for those playing on technical analysis and more for the investor who looks for good value in shares. For, often people selling on technical analysis overshoot and cause a stock's value to be worth less than its fair value. Thanks to people who get burned on these losses, investors find unique opportunities to snatch up great comanies at bargain-basement prices.
Rule number three: Focus on the Fundamentals.
You cannot accurately predict the short term price fluctuations of stocks. Let me repeat myself: You CANNOT accurately predict the short term price fluctuations of stocks. If you could, those stock experts working at Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs wouldn't be working. Believe me: they've got a lot more experience than you or I do, and they're not gambling. So, instead of "investing on luck" or momentum, take control and do your research. Find out whether the company is consistantly outpacing the industry. See what the price to earnings ratio is and whether it's being undervalued. Find out whether earnings per share has been increasing or decreasing. See what the financial community thinks by examining analyst opinions covering the firm. All this information is easily accessable over the internet and free of charge. IF you do your homework your gains will be all but certain OVER TIME and you'll feel satisfied and proud with your investment choices. You may even become attached to your company and become well acquainted with it.
Rule number four: Buy long term
Besides your liklihood of making money going up, there are tax advantages to holding stocks long term. For one thing, if you simply hold onto your stock, you won't be taxed until you pull out and your investment can continue to compound, without erosion, until you sell. But, if you constantly buy and sell, then you're taxed on all your gains and you don't get to pay the lower capital gains tax. Instead, it's taxed as regular income, which is a higher tax rate. For most daytraders, tax erosion is one of the biggest problems with making any profit. But, if you do sell make sure it's because your company has been consistently underperforming. This leads to the next point:
Rule number five: Buy low sell high.
Lots of people buy stocks and when the price dips they get scared and sell. Other people see the price of their stock go up and buy more. But, this seems like reverse logic, right? If you own a good company, short-cited investors can drive down a stock price temporarily because of one below-expected earnings report or a bit of bad news. Let these be times for you to take advantage of other people's hysteria and buy at an attractive price.
Be smart in your investment decisions. Warren Buffet didn't find himself where he is today by buying on momentum or following technical analysis. Instead, it took research, patience, and commitment. If you can commit yourself to these same principles, you too will enjoy financial success.
http://www.epinions.com/finc-review-1935-D65AB19-38EAE41E-prod2
Reject Technical Analysis: Buffett's strategy fundamentally rejects technical analysis (predicting short-term price movements based on charts, volume, and momentum). The article equates this with gambling, driven by herd mentality and often leading to losses.
Focus on Business Fundamentals: The core of the strategy is to analyze a company's intrinsic value by examining its fundamentals: consistent performance, price-to-earnings ratio (P/E), earnings per share (EPS) growth, and industry standing.
Invest as a Business Owner: Rule #1 is to buy stocks as if you are becoming a permanent owner of the business. Invest only in companies you understand, trust, and would be willing to hold indefinitely, regardless of market fluctuations.
Long-Term Horizon: Investing is a long-term commitment, not short-term trading. This allows investments to compound and provides tax advantages (lower capital gains taxes) compared to frequent trading.
Be Contrarian (Buy Low, Sell High): The strategy advises being greedy when others are fearful. Use temporary market pessimism or bad news (which often deprices good companies below their fair value) as an opportunity to buy at a discount. Sell only if the company's fundamentals deteriorate consistently.
In essence, the article advocates for a fundamental, long-term, value-investing approach—buying wonderful businesses at fair prices and holding them—while explicitly avoiding technical analysis and short-term market speculation.
Malaysian households are vulnerable to market volatility with one-third of household financial assets in the form of equity,
Written by Syarina Hyzah Zakaria
Monday, 21 November 2011 12:45
KUALA LUMPUR: Effective this Jan 1, those looking to borrow from banks to buy houses and cars will be subject to Bank Negara Malaysia’s (BNM) new guidelines aimed at promoting prudent, responsible and transparent retail financing practices.
While much has been documented about the high borrowings of Malaysian households, little has been said about the 33% of households’ financial assets that are in the form of equities and unit trusts, which makes them also vulnerable to market volatility.
Malaysia’s high proportion of household debt to GDP of 76% is already a well-known fact. Having targeted the credit card segment earlier by imposing fees and stricter credit limits, the central bank is now tightening the income criteria for mortgages, requiring eligibility to be based on net income rather than gross income as it was previously.
Not only that, effective last Friday the tenure for car loans is now capped at nine years.
Although much has been said about the high level of household borrowings, what do their balance sheets look like?
Earlier this year, BNM published its 2010 Financial Stability and Payment Systems report, highlighting that some 33% of households’ financial assets are in the form of equities and unit trusts, and are susceptible to the performance of the stock market.
Equity holdings and unit trust funds accounted for 17% and 16% respectively of household assets at the end of 2010, with endowment policies accounting for 6%.
Bank deposits form the biggest chunk of household financial assets at 31%, followed by retirement savings with the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) with 30%, and equities 17%.
In fact, equity holdings were at their highest levels since the financial crisis in 2008, recording a 20% change on an annual basis according to the report. This was partly due to the stock market recovery that saw the FBM KLCI gaining 19.34% in 2010. It also contributed to the bulk of the 14.9% expansion in household financial assets last year.
If the high volatility in equity markets persists, it may impinge on a household’s ability to service its debt and mortgages, and inadvertently slow economic growth.
Malaysian households are vulnerable to market volatility as about 33% of their financial assets are in the form of equities and unit trusts.
Equity markets around the world have been on a downhill slide since August, hit by the European debt crisis and a slew of other external concerns. Starting with Standard & Poor’s downgrade of US sovereign debt, worries spread to a possible default by Greece and several other European countries, as well as slowing growth in China and a sluggish recovery in the US.
In August itself, 7.9% or RM97.4 billion was wiped off the KLCI’s market capitalisation, with a further RM69.6 billion erased in September.
Year-to-date, the KLCI has declined 5.15% to 1,454.4 last Friday, and is off an intra-day high of 1,597.08. From the year’s high to the year’s low of 1,310.53 on Sept 26, the index fell 17.9%. The market has since rebounded from the low rising 10.9% to last week’s close.
BNM shared its concern over the stock market’s impact in the report.
“With one-third of household financial assets in the form of equity, households are susceptible to volatile swings in equity prices as observed in 2008, when a 39.3% fall in the KLCI precipitated a decline in household financial assets. This in turn, may subject the household financial position to the vagaries of the equity market.”
In 2008, the value of equity holdings and endowment policies held by households fell by over 35% when the stock market slumped. The value of unit trusts fell over 15% while bank and EPF deposits chalked up modest growth.
However, BNM also said this risk is mitigated by “a substantial and almost equal proportion of household financial assets represented by deposits with financial institutions, which continue to provide a comfortable buffer to support households’ debt servicing ability”.
The central bank added that at the end of 2010, the ratio of financial assets-to-debt remained relatively unchanged at 238.4%, with more than 60% of the financial assets held in the form of highly liquid assets.
Economists contacted by The Edge Financial Daily were not too worried about the impact of the stock market volatility on household assets.
“Investors would have already taken that into consideration when investing,” said Dr Yeah Kim Leng, group chief economist at RAM Holdings.
The current market decline would produce negative wealth effects, but this would be offset by rising income and the rally in commodities prices this year, he said.
“The question now is what is the threshold that would trigger bankruptcy and defaults,” he elaborated. Yeah said the current correction in the markets is not sizable enough to trigger such a situation.
There are other indicators to observe, including employment levels, wage rates and bank credit flows, he said.
“If credit lending for retail and households were impinged, then spending would definitely be cut,” he warned.
Those who invested in the stock market would be the ones with excess savings, he said, adding that households can still depend on fixed income sources such as unit trusts like Amanah Saham Bumiputera and savings deposits which can provide stable returns.
Yeah estimated that the KLCI would have to drop between 30% and 50% from its peak this year to cause any real effects to households.
“This time around, the market is more dominated by institutional investors than retail compared with the 1997 Asian financial crisis. So investors won’t be directly burned by this correction,” said Suhaimi Ilias, an economist at Maybank IB Research.
Suhaimi said: “Unlike back in the 1990s, leveraged equity investments via share margin financing (SMF) were a big thing so individuals were far more vulnerable to market swings due to margin calls and forced selling. As mentioned, this time around household assets related to equity investments are mainly placed under professional fund managers who are better equipped to monitor the investment portfolio and manage risks. Banks are also far more careful in extending SMF these days.
“For that matter, banks are also exercising a great deal of prudence in lending as part of credit risk management, under the close watchful eyes of Bank Negara, which has also been implementing macro prudential measures since late 2010 on mortgages and credit card loan.
“To me, 33% of households invested in equities and unit trusts is not that high a ratio. Moreover, the household financial assets to household debt ratio obviously excludes real assets [such as property holdings] but includes mortgages on the debt side ... so the household assets to debt cover could be higher,” he said.
Nontheless, Suhaimi said a weakening sentiment can affect the real economy as households and consumers turn more cautious in their spending as they react to market news and movements.
“The household assets to debt cover figure is an aggregate statistic, with no breakdown by household income groups, that is high income, middle income, low income,” he added.
“Chances are the lower income households and those working in export-based industries, for example, may be vulnerable due to a lower household assets to debt cover, and from the impact of the global downturn, as what we saw in 2008/09 when many people in the manufacturing sector were retrenched outright or had reduced income due to redundancies or working on shorter shifts,” he said.
“This can lead to difficulties in repaying loans and rising non-performing loans. Back in 2008/09, Bank Negara stepped in to provide temporary relief for the retrenched workers by allowing banks to grant a six-month moratorium on housing loan repayments,” he said.
With high debts and a rising propensity to invest in riskier assets, maintaining near full employment and raising income levels are keys to maintaining households’ financial sustainability.
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, November 21, 2011.
Sunday, 20 November 2011
The Four Filters Invention of Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger
Charlie Munger, the Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway mentions their "4 Investing Filters".
1. Understand the Business
2. Sustainable Competitive Advantages
3. Able and Trustworthy Managers
4. Bargain Price = Margin of Safety
"It is a very simple set of ideas and the reason that our idea has not spread faster is that they are too simple."
The QMV or QVM approach:
Q = Quality
M = Management
V = Valuation
Saturday, 19 November 2011
Margin of Safety Concept as explained by Warren Buffett
Buffett: "In investing in securities, you can change your mind tomorrow and sell it if you feel you have made a mistake. When you buy a business, we buy businesses to keep. So .. our margin of safety is not in the price we pay .. it's in crossing the threshold of being virtually certain of buying into a business with durable competitive advantage, that is, one with good economics ... and we are buying in into people with a passion for the business and who are going to run it in the same way the year after they sold it to us the year that they run it the year before. So our margin of safety gets more into the qualitative characteristics than the quantitative aspects that you probably refer to in terms of the Ben Graham's standard of buying a business for .... he would say buy a stock .. if you think a stock is worth $10 .. don't pay $9.90 for it but $8.00 or something like that. When you are buying businesses, it's a different criteria, you are buying to keep and you better make sure that you are buying both the businesses that you like 10 or 20 years from now and the management that you are going to love 10 or 20 years from now.
We don't look for specific sectors, but we do look at businesses that I can understand. That means where I feel I have a high degree of confidence in my ability to see what they are going to look like 5, 10 and 20 years from now. It isn't that I don't understand, say the software product in general of the Microsoft but I don't know how that industry is going to develop 10 or 20 years. I didn't know that Google was going to come along in terms of search .. and all kind. So, anything that is rapidly developing, has lots of change embodied in it, by my definition, I won't understand. It may do wonders for society. It may have what appears to have a bright future, but I don't bring anything to that game that I know. Not only I don't know more that the other fellow, I do not know as much as the other fellow in evaluating what the industry will look like in 10 years. So, besides the things I look at businesses are reasonably easy to evaluate where the products .. how they will fit in with the economic picture .. how their economics will look in the 5, 10 or 20 years period. (2.40 minute)...Take an extreme example, I can understand Nestle ............................."
The corrosive effect of inflation explained.
One stockbroker explains the corrosive effect of inflation.
Friday, 4 November 2011
Chinese rich are keen to emigrate
Updated: 2011-11-03 11:35
By Shi Jing and Yu Ran (China Daily)
SHANGHAI - About 60 percent of the rich Chinese people, each of whom has a net asset of at least 60 million yuan ($9.44 million), said they intended to migrate from China, a report has found.
About 14 percent of them have either already migrated from China or have applied for migration.
The three most favored destinations by the Chinese rich are the United States, Canada and Singapore. The US is the first choice of some 40 percent of the people interviewed, according to a white paper jointly released by Hurun Report and the Bank of China (BOC) on Saturday.
According to US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), the number of Chinese applicants for investment immigration has exceeded applications from any other country or region.
Last year, the USCIS issued 772 EB-5 visas, meant for investor immigrants, to Chinese people. They account for 41 percent of the total EB-5 visas issued by the agency.
"Among all the destinations in terms of investment immigration, the US always outstand all other options as the country does not impose any quota," said Jiao Lingyan, a client executive of the investment immigration department of the Beijing-based GlobeImmi International Education Consultation Co.
"The minimum amount required for investment immigration to the US is $500,000. But it should be noted that this applies to investments in projects recommended by authorities in the US. People considering these projects should take into account that they may not make profits," Jiao said.
"It is worth noting that the minimum amount for investment immigration will be raised in the coming years, because the number of rich people in China is rapidly growing," she said.
Among the 980 people interviewed by Hurun Report and the BOC, one-third said they have assets overseas, which on an average account for 19 percent of their total assets.
While 32 percent of the interviewees said they have invested overseas with a view to immigrate, half of them said they did so mainly for the sake of their children's education.
Zhang Yuehui, a Beijing-based immigration expert, said children's education is also the top concern among those who want to immigrate.
"A growing number of parents in China have realized that children growing up in the examination-oriented education system in China will find it hard to compete in an increasingly globalized world," Zhang said.
Wang Lilan, 38, a mother of two who immigrated to Australia from her home province of Fujian two years ago, was one of those parents.
"My 12-year-old elder daughter used to do her homework very late into the night. But here in Australia, she does quite a lot practical assignment, in a playful way. And she has more spare time to do the things she likes," Wang said.
"I feel very delighted to see my children having fun while studying," Wang said.
Chinese immigrants are also getting younger, with the largest group aged between 25 and 30, compared to the 40-45 age group in the past, Zhang said
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2011-11/03/content_14028075.htm