Estimating Growth in Value Investing
Avoid using valuation based on growth estimates
Another reason for pure value investing’s aversion to valuation based on growth estimates is that growth’s potential value can be ascertained using other accounting tools not requiring estimates.
This involves comparing valuation estimates using earnings with those using assets.
Three possibilities arise: The valuations are the same or one or the other is higher.
1. Earnings value = Asset value
When they are the same, growth bears no value as just noted.
2. Asset value > Earnings value
When asset value exceeds earnings value, managers are deploying assets sub-optimally, either due to ineptitude or excess industry capacity. No value resides there.
3. Earnings value > Asset value
When earnings value exceeds asset value, it is due to competitive advantages or barriers to entry, and these clues indicate potential value in growth. This indicates a company possessing franchise value. One measure of that value is the excess of earnings value over asset value. It is captured in the expression return on equity. This economic goodwill makes companies value investor candidates.
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Monday 12 January 2009
Avoid Extrapolated Future Earnings Growth figures
Avoid assumptions about extrapolated growth in future earnings
Assumptions about growth in future earnings extrapolated from current or past earnings are unreliable for a valuation exercise.
Also suspect for pure value investors are assumptions about growth in future earnings extrapolated from current or past earnings.
Unlike extreme devotees of growth investing, value investors consider current earnings – adjusted as described – to be the best estimate of sustainable future cash flows.
A key reason to deny estimated and unknown earnings growth is that absent sustainable competitive advantages or barriers to competitor entry, growth lacks value.
If new entrants can join a company’s industry as equal competitors, the effect drives a company’s returns to just equal their costs – no upside is sustainable so growth adds nothing.
Growing a business measured in sales requires growing the business measured in assets. Growing assets requires capital, which also poses a cost. Facing competitive entrants, the process goes nowhere (except remotely due to luck and temporarily – benefits value investors do not pay for).
Also read:
Assumptions about growth in future earnings extrapolated from current or past earnings are unreliable for a valuation exercise.
Also suspect for pure value investors are assumptions about growth in future earnings extrapolated from current or past earnings.
Unlike extreme devotees of growth investing, value investors consider current earnings – adjusted as described – to be the best estimate of sustainable future cash flows.
A key reason to deny estimated and unknown earnings growth is that absent sustainable competitive advantages or barriers to competitor entry, growth lacks value.
If new entrants can join a company’s industry as equal competitors, the effect drives a company’s returns to just equal their costs – no upside is sustainable so growth adds nothing.
Growing a business measured in sales requires growing the business measured in assets. Growing assets requires capital, which also poses a cost. Facing competitive entrants, the process goes nowhere (except remotely due to luck and temporarily – benefits value investors do not pay for).
Also read:
Avoid Pro Forma financial figures
Avoid Pro forma financial figures
Pro forma financial figures are unreliable for a valuation exercise
Value investing eschews pro forma financial figures.
These are pictures of performance based on making various assumptions other than those applied in preparing actual financial statements.
While useful for certain exercises such as depicting how a newly merged company would have looked if the merger had occurred some years earlier, they do not represent useful valuation resources in other contexts.
Pro forma figures are the least reliable data in financial reporting and are invariably unreliable for a valuation exercise.
Also read:
Pro forma financial figures are unreliable for a valuation exercise
Value investing eschews pro forma financial figures.
These are pictures of performance based on making various assumptions other than those applied in preparing actual financial statements.
While useful for certain exercises such as depicting how a newly merged company would have looked if the merger had occurred some years earlier, they do not represent useful valuation resources in other contexts.
Pro forma figures are the least reliable data in financial reporting and are invariably unreliable for a valuation exercise.
Also read:
Adjustments in Current Earnings figure
Adjusting current earnings figure
Valuation based on current earnings is equal to current earnings divided by the company’s current cost of capital.
V = E/k
E = Earnings.
k = The cost of capital.
Apart from estimating the cost of equity capital, earnings-based valuation relies on some accounting judgments to confirm the integrity of current earnings.
The exercise may call for adjustments in the reported figures to render the current earnings figure the best estimate of the company’s sustainable long-term cash flows.
Distortion caused by one-time charges
Among justifications for adjusting current earnings is the distortion caused by one-time charges. Companies sometimes bury bad news affecting multiple years into a single charge and dismiss the result as a nonrecurring episode. Adjusting for this practice requires reallocating the one-time charge across multiple periods and adjusting the current year’s earnings accordingly.
Distortion caused by noncash charges
Other justifications for adjusting current earnings are accounting allocations for noncash charges such as depreciation and amortization. These are intended to serve as a proxy for how close a company’s capital assets are drawing to the ends of their useful lives and must be replaced. It is common for the required reinvestment in such capital assets to exceed the amount allocated in the accounting.
Distortion caused by aberrant current year earnings
Current earnings may also be adjusted to the extent that the current year is an aberration for substantive economic reasons. If the year is a cyclical down year for the company, an upward adjustment based on earnings of prior years is indicated; if at a boom in the corporate or industrial business cycle, the reverse would be true.
Also read:
Valuation based on current earnings is equal to current earnings divided by the company’s current cost of capital.
V = E/k
E = Earnings.
k = The cost of capital.
Apart from estimating the cost of equity capital, earnings-based valuation relies on some accounting judgments to confirm the integrity of current earnings.
The exercise may call for adjustments in the reported figures to render the current earnings figure the best estimate of the company’s sustainable long-term cash flows.
Distortion caused by one-time charges
Among justifications for adjusting current earnings is the distortion caused by one-time charges. Companies sometimes bury bad news affecting multiple years into a single charge and dismiss the result as a nonrecurring episode. Adjusting for this practice requires reallocating the one-time charge across multiple periods and adjusting the current year’s earnings accordingly.
Distortion caused by noncash charges
Other justifications for adjusting current earnings are accounting allocations for noncash charges such as depreciation and amortization. These are intended to serve as a proxy for how close a company’s capital assets are drawing to the ends of their useful lives and must be replaced. It is common for the required reinvestment in such capital assets to exceed the amount allocated in the accounting.
Distortion caused by aberrant current year earnings
Current earnings may also be adjusted to the extent that the current year is an aberration for substantive economic reasons. If the year is a cyclical down year for the company, an upward adjustment based on earnings of prior years is indicated; if at a boom in the corporate or industrial business cycle, the reverse would be true.
Also read:
Income Statement Value: The Earnings Payoff
Income Statement Value: The Earnings Payoff
Successful asset leveraging shows up in the income statement.
The income statement reports revenues less expenses and depicts an important measure of business performance. This is not a picture of cash flows because GAAP uses accrual, not a cash method of reporting.
In accrual accounting, economic activity is recorded according to the relationship between revenue and expense, rather than the timing of cash inflows or outflows. This is not an idiosyncrasy of accounting tradition, but a reflection of accounting’s goal of measuring and allocating business events that reflect economic reality. Those accruals capturing noncash costs of doing business reflect that cash will be absorbed in the future.
Pure value investors (Graham and Dodd) believe that current earnings (adjusted) are the most reliable indicator of a company’s sustainable long-term cash flows.
Adding a further constraint, pure value investors believe that the most reliable way to use current earnings as a valuation metric is to assume they will be constant in the future at current rates – not grow according to estimates.
The math is easy.
Valuation based on current earnings is equal to current earnings divided by the company’s current cost of capital.
That is,
V = E/k.
E = Earnings are earnings.
k = The cost of capital. (This is the company’s weighted average cost of debt and cost of equity. The former can be calculated simply; the latter still requires some estimating).
Successful asset leveraging shows up in the income statement.
The income statement reports revenues less expenses and depicts an important measure of business performance. This is not a picture of cash flows because GAAP uses accrual, not a cash method of reporting.
In accrual accounting, economic activity is recorded according to the relationship between revenue and expense, rather than the timing of cash inflows or outflows. This is not an idiosyncrasy of accounting tradition, but a reflection of accounting’s goal of measuring and allocating business events that reflect economic reality. Those accruals capturing noncash costs of doing business reflect that cash will be absorbed in the future.
Pure value investors (Graham and Dodd) believe that current earnings (adjusted) are the most reliable indicator of a company’s sustainable long-term cash flows.
Adding a further constraint, pure value investors believe that the most reliable way to use current earnings as a valuation metric is to assume they will be constant in the future at current rates – not grow according to estimates.
The math is easy.
Valuation based on current earnings is equal to current earnings divided by the company’s current cost of capital.
That is,
V = E/k.
E = Earnings are earnings.
k = The cost of capital. (This is the company’s weighted average cost of debt and cost of equity. The former can be calculated simply; the latter still requires some estimating).
The virtues of this approach are simplicity and reliability:
- Characteristic of simplicity is that investors need not bother with growth rates because no growth is assumed.
- Both data points are known or can be reliably estimated.
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How long will it take to become a millionaire?
How long will it take to become a millionaire?(Comment: Make a $1,000 per day for 1000 days. 1000 x 1000 = 1 million)
The movie Slumdog Millionaire will reignite our dreams to become super-rich but the reality is that few of us will be one question away from winning the quiz Who Wants to be a Millionaire?. If you had to save, how long would it take you to save £1m?
By Paul Farrow Last Updated: 4:59PM GMT 09 Jan 2009
How long will it take to become a millionaire? Photo: BBC
Go on, admit it. You have dreamed that one day you will become a millionaire. More than two-thirds of the 23m people who have bought National Savings & Investments' Premium Bonds have done so in the hope of becoming a millionaire.
However, the odds are stacked against you and the chances of winning the Premium Bond jackpot are 1.6m to one if you have £1,000 worth of bonds.
Tens of thousands play the National Lottery each week in the hoping of becoming a millionaire. Most of us only win a tenner every now and then by matching three numbers. Matching six numbers is an entirely different ball game. With six numbers drawn at random from the set of integers between 1 and 49, the jackpot odds are 1 in 13,983,816 – or approximately 1 in 14m.
Del Boy Trotter from TV's Only Fools and Horses always dreamed of becoming a millionaire. But the odds are also firmly stacked against you finding an antique watch worth £1m in your garage – as Del Boy did to finally fulfil his lifelong dream.
For most of us, all we can do is graft away and put what money we have going spare by to build up a tidy nest egg. You are likely to be far short of a £1m – but just in case you are interested, our new calculator will show you how much you will need and how long it will take for various rates of return.
Millionaire calculator
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Harsh economic realities await the Obama team
Harsh economic realities await the Obama team
The realisation is growing that Barack Obama may already have made a terrible mistake – before he's even entered the White House.
By Liam Halligan Last Updated: 6:00PM GMT 10 Jan 2009
Five weeks ago, this column raised questions about several members of the incoming President's then newly-unveiled economics team. Weren't they among those history would likely judge as most responsible for causing this crisis? That observation was lost was lost at the time amid the cacophony of praise as mainstream commentators gushed over Obama's "star-studded" line-up.
But since then, among bloggers and others with the "audacity" to think for themselves, the notion that Obama's economics team could become a political liability has started to gain real momentum.
The point at issue is the Glass-Steagall Act – passed in 1933, in response to the Wall Street crash. Named after the two Democrat senators who sponsored it, Glass-Steagall prevented commercial banks – which take deposits from ordinary households and firms – from engaging in high-risk speculative activities undertaken by investment banks.
Or at least it did until 1999 when, after millions of dollars of political donations from Wall Street, it was repealed by President Clinton.
That repeal, more than any other single factor, unleashed the forces that culminated in this financial crisis. Investment banks took over commercial banks using their retail deposit base, on which there was an implicit government guarantee for risky speculative trading – not least in opaque derivatives.
Wall Street's example, in turn, led to the scrapping of similar regulations in financial centres elsewhere. And we all know what happened next.
One of the main proponents of scrapping Glass-Steagall was Clinton's Treasury Secretary Larry Summers. Removing this crucial banking firewall, he proclaimed at the time, would "better enable American companies to compete in the new economy".
All the repeal achieved, though, was to allow Wall Street firms to engage in recklessly risky behaviour while growing "too big to fail" – sparking today's grotesque taxpayer-funded bail-outs, to say nothing of the freezing-up of interbank markets, blocking of worldwide credit channels and the resulting global slump. Despite his key role in enacting this historic blunder, Summers is to be Obama's chief economic advisor.
Last week, in yet another soft-focus newspaper profile of Summers, one of his academic friends claimed that "when the facts change, Larry changes his mind". Well, Larry, the facts on Glass-Steagall have changed. You and your buddies goofed. So when are you going to reinstate the safeguards upon which the stability of global banking depends?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/liamhalligan/4213828/Harsh-economic-realities-await-the-Obama-team.html
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Strong medicine needed to cure ills of cheap money
The realisation is growing that Barack Obama may already have made a terrible mistake – before he's even entered the White House.
By Liam Halligan Last Updated: 6:00PM GMT 10 Jan 2009
Five weeks ago, this column raised questions about several members of the incoming President's then newly-unveiled economics team. Weren't they among those history would likely judge as most responsible for causing this crisis? That observation was lost was lost at the time amid the cacophony of praise as mainstream commentators gushed over Obama's "star-studded" line-up.
But since then, among bloggers and others with the "audacity" to think for themselves, the notion that Obama's economics team could become a political liability has started to gain real momentum.
The point at issue is the Glass-Steagall Act – passed in 1933, in response to the Wall Street crash. Named after the two Democrat senators who sponsored it, Glass-Steagall prevented commercial banks – which take deposits from ordinary households and firms – from engaging in high-risk speculative activities undertaken by investment banks.
Or at least it did until 1999 when, after millions of dollars of political donations from Wall Street, it was repealed by President Clinton.
That repeal, more than any other single factor, unleashed the forces that culminated in this financial crisis. Investment banks took over commercial banks using their retail deposit base, on which there was an implicit government guarantee for risky speculative trading – not least in opaque derivatives.
Wall Street's example, in turn, led to the scrapping of similar regulations in financial centres elsewhere. And we all know what happened next.
One of the main proponents of scrapping Glass-Steagall was Clinton's Treasury Secretary Larry Summers. Removing this crucial banking firewall, he proclaimed at the time, would "better enable American companies to compete in the new economy".
All the repeal achieved, though, was to allow Wall Street firms to engage in recklessly risky behaviour while growing "too big to fail" – sparking today's grotesque taxpayer-funded bail-outs, to say nothing of the freezing-up of interbank markets, blocking of worldwide credit channels and the resulting global slump. Despite his key role in enacting this historic blunder, Summers is to be Obama's chief economic advisor.
Last week, in yet another soft-focus newspaper profile of Summers, one of his academic friends claimed that "when the facts change, Larry changes his mind". Well, Larry, the facts on Glass-Steagall have changed. You and your buddies goofed. So when are you going to reinstate the safeguards upon which the stability of global banking depends?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/liamhalligan/4213828/Harsh-economic-realities-await-the-Obama-team.html
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Merrill Lynch says rich turning to gold bars for safety
Merrill Lynch says rich turning to gold bars for safety
Merrill Lynch has revealed that some of its richest clients are so alarmed by the state of the financial system and signs of political instability around the world that they are now insisting on the purchase of gold bars, shunning derivatives or "paper" proxies.
By Ambrose Evans-PritchardLast Updated: 10:32AM GMT 09 Jan 2009
Rich investors are spurning gold exchange traded funds in favour of krugerrands.
Gary Dugan, the chief investment officer for the US bank, said there has been a remarkable change in sentiment. "People are genuinely worried about what the world is going to look like in 2009. It is amazing how many clients want physical gold, not ETFs," he said, referring to exchange trade funds listed in London, New York, and other bourses.
"They are so worried they want a portable asset in their house. I never thought I would be getting calls from clients saying they want a box of krugerrands," he said.
Merrill predicted that gold would soon blast through its all time-high of $1,030 an ounce, and would hit $1,150 by June.
The metal should do well whatever happens. If deflation sets in and rocks the economic system it will serve as a safe-haven, but if massive monetary stimulus gains traction and sets off inflation once again it will also come into its own as a store of value. "It's win-win either way," said Mr Dugan.
He added that deflation may prove the greater risk in coming months. "It's very difficult to get the deflation psychology out of the human brain once prices start falling. People stop buying things because they think it will be cheaper if they wait."
Merrill expects global inflation to hover near zero, with rates of minus 1pc in the industrial economies. This means that yields on AAA sovereign bonds now at 3pc will offer a real return of 4pc a year, which is stellar in this grim climate. "Don't start selling your government bonds," Mr Dugan said, dismissing talk of a bond bubble as misguided.
He warned that the eurozone was likely to come under strain this year as slump deepens. "There is going to be friction as governments in the south start talking politically about coming out of the euro. I don't see the tensions in Greece as a one-off. It is a sign of social strain in countries that have lost competitiveness."
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Sunday 11 January 2009
Balance Sheet Value: Summary
Balance Sheet Value: Summary
The figures resulting from analyzing the balance sheet remain baselines.
The company is worth at least the net of its total assets less total liabilities.
Whether it is worth a premium depends on its ability to leverage the asset base through competitive advantages that result in barriers to entry that keep competitors out.
Also read:
1.Balance Sheet Value: Assets at Work
2.Reliability of financial data
3.Asset valuation approach in liquidation
4.Asset valuation approaches in active companies
5.Valuing Hidden assets
6.Subtracting liabilities in asset valuation
7.Balance Sheet Value: Summary
Subtracting liabilities in asset valuation
Subtracting liabilities
The liabilities of a going concern, taken at face value, are subtracted from assessment in the reproduction cost method of valuation.
Judgment is required for certain liability classes, however, such as for deferred tax liabilities or contingencies. A new entrant would not necessarily face such obligations. If not, they may be omitted.
Debt, however, should be subtracted, either at its carrying amount or its market value, whichever is higher.
Analysing the balance sheet includes assessing the level of liabilities and determining whether all liabilities are properly recorded.
It is also prudent to examine the relationship between recorded depreciation over time and capital reinvestment levels. The former is a proxy for the latter; as a proxy, it must be tested to determine whether actual reinvestment needs are more or less than recorded depreciation expenses.
Also read:
1.Balance Sheet Value: Assets at Work
2.Reliability of financial data
3.Asset valuation approach in liquidation
4.Asset valuation approaches in active companies
5.Valuing Hidden assets
6.Subtracting liabilities in asset valuation
7.Balance Sheet Value: Summary
The liabilities of a going concern, taken at face value, are subtracted from assessment in the reproduction cost method of valuation.
Judgment is required for certain liability classes, however, such as for deferred tax liabilities or contingencies. A new entrant would not necessarily face such obligations. If not, they may be omitted.
Debt, however, should be subtracted, either at its carrying amount or its market value, whichever is higher.
Analysing the balance sheet includes assessing the level of liabilities and determining whether all liabilities are properly recorded.
It is also prudent to examine the relationship between recorded depreciation over time and capital reinvestment levels. The former is a proxy for the latter; as a proxy, it must be tested to determine whether actual reinvestment needs are more or less than recorded depreciation expenses.
Also read:
1.Balance Sheet Value: Assets at Work
2.Reliability of financial data
3.Asset valuation approach in liquidation
4.Asset valuation approaches in active companies
5.Valuing Hidden assets
6.Subtracting liabilities in asset valuation
7.Balance Sheet Value: Summary
Valuing Hidden assets
Hidden assets
An informed guess can be made by estimating the life cycle of the resulting product and multiplying this by the target’s average annual level of R&D expense.
For a patented pharmaceutical, for example, product life could be up to the 17-year life of a patent. So if the company spends 5 percent annually on R&D for its patented products, an amount equal to about 85 percent of current revenues would be warranted.
Similar estimating is appropriate to value customer relationships. These take time and resources to build. They may be judged by some multiple of the target’s annual selling and administrative expenses – perhaps between one and three years’ worth of these.
Additional estimating goes into other hidden assets such as
Also read:
1.Balance Sheet Value: Assets at Work
2.Reliability of financial data
3.Asset valuation approach in liquidation
4.Asset valuation approaches in active companies
5.Valuing Hidden assets
6.Subtracting liabilities in asset valuation
7.Balance Sheet Value: Summary
In addition to assets appearing on a going concern’s balance sheet, numerous resources bearing value do not appear under GAAP. These so-called hidden assets include:
- Brand-name identity
- Product qualities
- Know-how
- Employee training
- Specialized production
- Distribution arrangements.
An informed guess can be made by estimating the life cycle of the resulting product and multiplying this by the target’s average annual level of R&D expense.
For a patented pharmaceutical, for example, product life could be up to the 17-year life of a patent. So if the company spends 5 percent annually on R&D for its patented products, an amount equal to about 85 percent of current revenues would be warranted.
Similar estimating is appropriate to value customer relationships. These take time and resources to build. They may be judged by some multiple of the target’s annual selling and administrative expenses – perhaps between one and three years’ worth of these.
Additional estimating goes into other hidden assets such as
- government licenses,
- franchise agreements, and
- other valuable resources
Also read:
1.Balance Sheet Value: Assets at Work
2.Reliability of financial data
3.Asset valuation approach in liquidation
4.Asset valuation approaches in active companies
5.Valuing Hidden assets
6.Subtracting liabilities in asset valuation
7.Balance Sheet Value: Summary
Asset valuation approaches in active companies
Going concerns
For a going concern, three asset valuation approaches are recognized:
Net-net working capital
The most conservative form of value investing examines solely current assets, subtracts all liabilities, and estimates the difference as the company’s value.
Graham made this famous as the net-net working capital figure.
If the target is selling for less than that difference, a sizable margin of safety exists.
It is somewhat impractical, however, for few companies today operate using current assets that are greater than total liabilities.
Such results are as rare as hen’s teeth today.
Book value
If a company can be bought for a per-share price equal to less than the difference between its reported total assets and reported total liabilities, it probably furnishes a comfortable margin of safety as well.
While such companies sometimes exist in contemporary corporate America, they too are not common.
Also, value investing inclines some scepticism towards reported figures, justifying consideration of the third method of asset valuation called the reproduction cost method.
Reproduction cost method
In the reproduction cost method of balance sheet valuation, the concept is to value a going concern on the basis of what it would take a new entrant to its business to build it from scratch at current costs or replacement value.
All a target’s resources and claims against it are separately assessed and netted out. The cash, securities, receivables, and inventory probably can be taken at face value, as can prepaid expenses.
For a going concern, three asset valuation approaches are recognized:
- Net-net working capital
- Book value
- Reproduction cost method
Net-net working capital
The most conservative form of value investing examines solely current assets, subtracts all liabilities, and estimates the difference as the company’s value.
Graham made this famous as the net-net working capital figure.
If the target is selling for less than that difference, a sizable margin of safety exists.
It is somewhat impractical, however, for few companies today operate using current assets that are greater than total liabilities.
Such results are as rare as hen’s teeth today.
Book value
If a company can be bought for a per-share price equal to less than the difference between its reported total assets and reported total liabilities, it probably furnishes a comfortable margin of safety as well.
While such companies sometimes exist in contemporary corporate America, they too are not common.
Also, value investing inclines some scepticism towards reported figures, justifying consideration of the third method of asset valuation called the reproduction cost method.
Reproduction cost method
In the reproduction cost method of balance sheet valuation, the concept is to value a going concern on the basis of what it would take a new entrant to its business to build it from scratch at current costs or replacement value.
All a target’s resources and claims against it are separately assessed and netted out. The cash, securities, receivables, and inventory probably can be taken at face value, as can prepaid expenses.
- Investigation is required to ensure that receivables have been adequately reserved through the allowance for bad debt accounts.
- Further investigation is required to ensure that inventory accounting is neither overstated (due to aging that suggests they are non-saleable for example) nor understated (due to inflation in sales prices compared to historical records concerning the cost of those goods held for sale).
- Fixed assets should be adjusted to reflect current market conditions, compared to the historical prices (net of depreciation) at which they are carried on the books.
- Accounting goodwill remains an asset class warranting little valuation accretion.
Also read:
1.Balance Sheet Value: Assets at Work
2.Reliability of financial data
3.Asset valuation approach in liquidation
4.Asset valuation approaches in active companies
5.Valuing Hidden assets
6.Subtracting liabilities in asset valuation
7.Balance Sheet Value: Summary
Asset valuation approach in liquidation
Liquidation
Liquidation value is the net realizable amount that could be generated by selling a company’s assets and discharging all its liabilities.
When valuing a business for liquidation, most assets are marked down and the liabilities treated at face value.
This valuation method is useful for companies being dissolved.
It doesn’t consider value arising from deploying the resources in combination. It is thus of limited use for valuing businesses as going concerns.
Also read:
1.Balance Sheet Value: Assets at Work
2.Reliability of financial data
3.Asset valuation approach in liquidation
4.Asset valuation approaches in active companies
5.Valuing Hidden assets
6.Subtracting liabilities in asset valuation
7.Balance Sheet Value: Summary
Liquidation value is the net realizable amount that could be generated by selling a company’s assets and discharging all its liabilities.
When valuing a business for liquidation, most assets are marked down and the liabilities treated at face value.
- Cash and securities are taken at face value.
- Receivables require a small discount (perhaps 15 percent to 25 percent off).
- Inventory a larger discount (perhaps 50 percent to 75 percent off).
- Fixed assets at least as much as inventory.
- Any goodwill should probably be ignored.
- Most intangible assets and prepaid expenses should be ignored.
This valuation method is useful for companies being dissolved.
It doesn’t consider value arising from deploying the resources in combination. It is thus of limited use for valuing businesses as going concerns.
Also read:
1.Balance Sheet Value: Assets at Work
2.Reliability of financial data
3.Asset valuation approach in liquidation
4.Asset valuation approaches in active companies
5.Valuing Hidden assets
6.Subtracting liabilities in asset valuation
7.Balance Sheet Value: Summary
Reliability of financial data
Key Insight into Reliability of financial data
A key insight about Graham and value investing endures. This focus relates to the data’s reliability.
Current assets are the most reliable of all financial data. Valuation data become more unreliable as one moves down:
· Every business can use cash so a dollar held is pretty much worth a dollar.
· Accounts receivable are generally more easily collected by the company that generated them, but they can be assigned or sold, and the buyer can collect most of what the company could (this commonly occurs by the process of factoring in the textile industry for example).
· Inventory can be used only by other merchandisers or manufacturers in the same or similar industries.
· Property, plant and equipment may be less adaptable even by peers, or can be illiquid.
· Goodwill is all but unique to a firm (other intangible assets such as trademarks, patents, and copyrights typically don’t appear on the balance sheet).
Also read:
1.Balance Sheet Value: Assets at Work
2.Reliability of financial data
3.Asset valuation approach in liquidation
4.Asset valuation approaches in active companies
5.Valuing Hidden assets
6.Subtracting liabilities in asset valuation
7.Balance Sheet Value: Summary
A key insight about Graham and value investing endures. This focus relates to the data’s reliability.
Current assets are the most reliable of all financial data. Valuation data become more unreliable as one moves down:
- the balance sheet from cash into longer-term current assets and into long-term assets,
- into the income statement and down it, and
- onto the cash flow statement.
· Every business can use cash so a dollar held is pretty much worth a dollar.
· Accounts receivable are generally more easily collected by the company that generated them, but they can be assigned or sold, and the buyer can collect most of what the company could (this commonly occurs by the process of factoring in the textile industry for example).
· Inventory can be used only by other merchandisers or manufacturers in the same or similar industries.
· Property, plant and equipment may be less adaptable even by peers, or can be illiquid.
· Goodwill is all but unique to a firm (other intangible assets such as trademarks, patents, and copyrights typically don’t appear on the balance sheet).
Also read:
1.Balance Sheet Value: Assets at Work
2.Reliability of financial data
3.Asset valuation approach in liquidation
4.Asset valuation approaches in active companies
5.Valuing Hidden assets
6.Subtracting liabilities in asset valuation
7.Balance Sheet Value: Summary
Balance Sheet Value: Assets at Work
Balance Sheet Value: Assets at Work
Pure value investing starts with the balance sheet, the list of assets and liabilities, and the resulting difference called book value.
The following metrics can be derived:
· Net-net working capital
· Net asset value
· Liquidation value, and
· Reproduction cost
In some areas, our economic environment has outpaced our accounting principles so that sizable asset classes called intangibles bearing large values remain unrecorded on the asset side of a balance sheet.
Examples are:
· Intellectual property (copyrights, patents, and trademarks), and
· Human capital (a well-trained workforce, know-how, and specialized skill sets).
Also read:
1.Balance Sheet Value: Assets at Work
2.Reliability of financial data
3.Asset valuation approach in liquidation
4.Asset valuation approaches in active companies
5.Valuing Hidden assets
6.Subtracting liabilities in asset valuation
7.Balance Sheet Value: Summary
Pure value investing starts with the balance sheet, the list of assets and liabilities, and the resulting difference called book value.
The following metrics can be derived:
· Net-net working capital
· Net asset value
· Liquidation value, and
· Reproduction cost
In some areas, our economic environment has outpaced our accounting principles so that sizable asset classes called intangibles bearing large values remain unrecorded on the asset side of a balance sheet.
Examples are:
· Intellectual property (copyrights, patents, and trademarks), and
· Human capital (a well-trained workforce, know-how, and specialized skill sets).
Also read:
1.Balance Sheet Value: Assets at Work
2.Reliability of financial data
3.Asset valuation approach in liquidation
4.Asset valuation approaches in active companies
5.Valuing Hidden assets
6.Subtracting liabilities in asset valuation
7.Balance Sheet Value: Summary
What data most reliably indicate value
While all investors agree that intrinsic worth is the present value of cash that an asset generates for its owners, serious disagreement arises concerning the factors used to estimate cash flows and the relevant discount rate.
Debate concerning cash flows focuses on what data most reliably indicate this value.
Cash flows are picture of the future, and gauging the future can only be done by drawing on the past.
Historical indicators
Which historical indicators are the best gauges of future performance?
Candidates include:
Debate concerning cash flows focuses on what data most reliably indicate this value.
Cash flows are picture of the future, and gauging the future can only be done by drawing on the past.
Historical indicators
Which historical indicators are the best gauges of future performance?
Candidates include:
- historical cash flows themselves,
- recent earning history, and
- existing asset and liability levels.
Even among prominent value investors, emphasis varies concerning which gauges are best suited for valuation exercises.
All agree that in order of importance, analysis must focus on
- the balance sheet,
- the income statement, and
- the cash flow statement.
Also read:
Valuation
Hunting for good investment prospects
Selecting investments
In selecting investments, value investors choose those shown by valuation analysis to be the cheapest.
Valuation analysis takes account of all relevant business factors, including:
Good investment prospects
Hunting for good investment prospects entails assessing only the group of companies most likely to win the valuation contest.
Among these businesses are those ablest to deploy additional capital at high rates of return compared to capital costs.
Businesses to avoid are those that must employ additional capital at low rates of return compared to capital costs.
The former population is far smaller than the latter.
To minimize error risk: margin of safety
Applying the valuation equation to this universe of companies is difficult and poses substantial risk of error.
To minimize error risk, value investing calls for a key disciplining attitude: margin of saftety.
It prescribes never paying a price approximately equal to ( or greater than) the value estimate you've made. If the investor is wrong, he will lose.
If the investor insists on paying only a fraction of any value estimate she makes, even if she is wrong, she may avoid future losses and certainly will reduce them.
Also read:
Valuation
1. Value Measurements
2. Hunting for good investment prospects
3. What data most reliably indicate value
In selecting investments, value investors choose those shown by valuation analysis to be the cheapest.
Valuation analysis takes account of all relevant business factors, including:
- financial strength,
- relative business growth, and
- steadiness of earnings.
Good investment prospects
Hunting for good investment prospects entails assessing only the group of companies most likely to win the valuation contest.
Among these businesses are those ablest to deploy additional capital at high rates of return compared to capital costs.
Businesses to avoid are those that must employ additional capital at low rates of return compared to capital costs.
The former population is far smaller than the latter.
To minimize error risk: margin of safety
Applying the valuation equation to this universe of companies is difficult and poses substantial risk of error.
To minimize error risk, value investing calls for a key disciplining attitude: margin of saftety.
It prescribes never paying a price approximately equal to ( or greater than) the value estimate you've made. If the investor is wrong, he will lose.
If the investor insists on paying only a fraction of any value estimate she makes, even if she is wrong, she may avoid future losses and certainly will reduce them.
Also read:
Valuation
1. Value Measurements
2. Hunting for good investment prospects
3. What data most reliably indicate value
Value Measurements
Value Measurements
The value of any asset (stock, bond, business, or other) is a function of the cash inflows and outflows, discounted at an appropriate rate that an investor can reasonably expect it to generate during its remaining life.
Bonds
Bond values are easiest to measure.
Standard bonds bear a designated interest rate and a set maturity date.
The combination defines expected cash flows and appropriate discount rate.
Stocks
Common stocks have no such coupon, and their life is perpetual.
An analyst thus must estimate both components (expected cash flows and discount rate) of the valuation exercise.
Another crucial difference is that qualitative variables such as managerial probity and skill have a direct bearing on common stock values, but a limited effect on bond values.
Also read:
Valuation
1. Value Measurements
2. Hunting for good investment prospects
3. What data most reliably indicate value
The value of any asset (stock, bond, business, or other) is a function of the cash inflows and outflows, discounted at an appropriate rate that an investor can reasonably expect it to generate during its remaining life.
Bonds
Bond values are easiest to measure.
Standard bonds bear a designated interest rate and a set maturity date.
The combination defines expected cash flows and appropriate discount rate.
Stocks
Common stocks have no such coupon, and their life is perpetual.
An analyst thus must estimate both components (expected cash flows and discount rate) of the valuation exercise.
Another crucial difference is that qualitative variables such as managerial probity and skill have a direct bearing on common stock values, but a limited effect on bond values.
Also read:
Valuation
1. Value Measurements
2. Hunting for good investment prospects
3. What data most reliably indicate value
Saturday 10 January 2009
Shares are cheap but it's not the time to buy
Shares are cheap but it's not the time to buy
Three days after Lehman Brothers collapsed in mid-September, stock markets were in freefall.
By Chris Hughes, breakingviews.com
Last Updated: 6:33AM GMT 09 Jan 2009
The world looked so gloomy that some equity investors hailed the week as the so-called "capitulation event" - the painful point of maximum bearishness that clearly establishes the trough of the market. The announcement of the US Troubled Asset Relief Programme arrested the selling.
But by late November, the MSCI World Index and S&P500 had fallen another 35pc. Equities had fallen 54pc from their October 2007 high, before the worst of the crisis hit.
Equity investors never know when they are at the bottom. But if the market rout prompted by Lehman was a false floor, the rally since late November is proving resilient. As of January 8, the World Index was up 22pc from last year's low, touched only seven weeks earlier. The question facing equity investors is whether this is just another bear-market rally, and, if not, how quickly markets will continue to recover.
Bear markets usually last longer than two years. But the latest downturn has been particularly accelerated. And there are multiple arguments why equities have now found their floor.
While higher current dividend yields partly reflect the risk of imminent dividend cuts, the equity yields still look good compared to government bonds and cash, whose yields have plummeted. Cash has never looked so expensive. The equity risk premium is at its highest in a decade, according to Morgan Stanley. Furthermore, corporate insiders, who should know something, are buying at record levels.
Analysts expect the recession to cut corporate earnings in half, including a 10pc decline in 2008. But equities appear to have fallen enough to reflect that savage drop. Global equities have not been so cheap on either spot or trough earnings for over two decades, says Citigroup. They are trading on a historic price-earnings ratio of around 11 times. Credit Suisse says historic consensus earnings multiples were an average 15 in the last four market lows.
Stock market history suggests that equity markets recover before bad news from corporations has stopped and while earnings are still falling. Equities can bottom out as early as five quarters before earnings trough, and do so on average after two quarters.
But to be buying now, equity investors need to satisfy themselves of two things.
The massive government stimulus packages that investors hope will underpin recovery carry risks of their own, in particular if weak currencies create an inflationary squeeze on corporate profits. The financial pummeling could slow the pace of any stock market recovery, even if profits are recovering. There must also be doubts about the new normal price-to-earnings ratio is a de-levered world.
And these uncertainties should be sufficient to keep equities cheap for a while yet.
For more agenda-setting financial analysis, visit www.breakingviews.com
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/4205812/Shares-are-cheap-but-its-not-the-time-to-buy.html
Also read:
Investing in time of uncertainties
Three days after Lehman Brothers collapsed in mid-September, stock markets were in freefall.
By Chris Hughes, breakingviews.com
Last Updated: 6:33AM GMT 09 Jan 2009
The world looked so gloomy that some equity investors hailed the week as the so-called "capitulation event" - the painful point of maximum bearishness that clearly establishes the trough of the market. The announcement of the US Troubled Asset Relief Programme arrested the selling.
But by late November, the MSCI World Index and S&P500 had fallen another 35pc. Equities had fallen 54pc from their October 2007 high, before the worst of the crisis hit.
Equity investors never know when they are at the bottom. But if the market rout prompted by Lehman was a false floor, the rally since late November is proving resilient. As of January 8, the World Index was up 22pc from last year's low, touched only seven weeks earlier. The question facing equity investors is whether this is just another bear-market rally, and, if not, how quickly markets will continue to recover.
Bear markets usually last longer than two years. But the latest downturn has been particularly accelerated. And there are multiple arguments why equities have now found their floor.
While higher current dividend yields partly reflect the risk of imminent dividend cuts, the equity yields still look good compared to government bonds and cash, whose yields have plummeted. Cash has never looked so expensive. The equity risk premium is at its highest in a decade, according to Morgan Stanley. Furthermore, corporate insiders, who should know something, are buying at record levels.
Analysts expect the recession to cut corporate earnings in half, including a 10pc decline in 2008. But equities appear to have fallen enough to reflect that savage drop. Global equities have not been so cheap on either spot or trough earnings for over two decades, says Citigroup. They are trading on a historic price-earnings ratio of around 11 times. Credit Suisse says historic consensus earnings multiples were an average 15 in the last four market lows.
Stock market history suggests that equity markets recover before bad news from corporations has stopped and while earnings are still falling. Equities can bottom out as early as five quarters before earnings trough, and do so on average after two quarters.
But to be buying now, equity investors need to satisfy themselves of two things.
- First, that earnings will indeed trough this year.
- And second, that this time will not be different, even in the face of a global deleveraging of unprecedented intensity.
The massive government stimulus packages that investors hope will underpin recovery carry risks of their own, in particular if weak currencies create an inflationary squeeze on corporate profits. The financial pummeling could slow the pace of any stock market recovery, even if profits are recovering. There must also be doubts about the new normal price-to-earnings ratio is a de-levered world.
And these uncertainties should be sufficient to keep equities cheap for a while yet.
For more agenda-setting financial analysis, visit www.breakingviews.com
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/4205812/Shares-are-cheap-but-its-not-the-time-to-buy.html
Also read:
Investing in time of uncertainties
Friday 9 January 2009
How Bad Will It Get?
How Bad Will It Get?
By Tim Hanson October 9, 2008 Comments (74)
It's grim out there. The market is down 24% since the beginning of September. The financial contagion that started with the U.S. subprime mortgage defaults has spread to Europe and Asia. Fully 60% of Americans now believe that a depression -- replete with 25% unemployment and widespread homelessness and hunger -- is "likely." And just 9% of Americans, an all-time low, are satisfied with the way things are going in the country.
It's gotten so bad, in fact, that the Booyah Bull himself, Jim Cramer, told investors on Monday to pull any money they need for the next five years out of the market.
Now, that's not necessarily bad advice
Of course, you should never be investing the hard-earned dollars that you need to pay your bills over the next few years. But if you heed the wisdom of the late Sir John Templeton -- whom we recently eulogized as the world's most important investor -- you should always be ready, willing, and able to invest some of your long-term savings in common stocks at -- and this is crucial -- the point of maximum pessimism.
What can happen when you buy at the point of maximum pessimism? Well, as Sir John proved when he famously purchased 100 shares of 104 companies trading for $1 per share or less in 1939, as the market panicked at the outset of World War II, you can make a lot of money.
The good news for you today is that given that data presented above, we're getting pretty darn close to that point -- only 9% of Americans are left to be convinced.
An important caveat
This, however, does not mean that the market has bottomed. It could well get worse before it gets better, particularly since the credit markets remain frozen and home prices look like they have a bit more "rationalizing" to do.
But some stellar businesses are already selling at hefty discounts to the norm:
Company
Current P/E ....5-Year Average P/E
Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT)
12.3....25.1
Paychex (Nasdaq: PAYX)
17.9....35.3
Intel (Nasdaq: INTC)
13.4....24.4
Fastenal (Nasdaq: FAST)
20.9....33.9
Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers (NYSE: RBA)
27.2....31.2
Nike (NYSE: NKE)
15.3....20.0
Best Buy (NYSE: BBY)
12.1....22.4
Data from Morningstar.com.
Are you brave enough to start today?
Rather than try to time the market and catch these names on the way back up, start dollar-cost averaging into an array of superior names now (remember, Sir John purchased shares in 104 companies) with a commitment to holding shares for the next five years or more. That's the only time-tested way to turn current market volatility to your advantage, and the rewards will be great for those with the courage and resources to do so.
The key, though (and this bears repeating), is to average in -- keeping some money on the sidelines if the market continues to drop -- and adding new money, even in a small amounts, on a regular basis. That's a particularly prudent tack today, given the low costs of trading and the violent unpredictability of today's stock market.
Tim Hanson owns no shares of any company mentioned ... yet. The Motley Fool owns shares of Best Buy. Microsoft, Intel, and Best Buy are Motley Fool Inside Value recommendations. Best Buy is also a Stock Advisor pick. Paychex is an Income Investor selection.
Read/Post Comments (74)
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2008/10/09/how-bad-will-it-get.aspx
By Tim Hanson October 9, 2008 Comments (74)
It's grim out there. The market is down 24% since the beginning of September. The financial contagion that started with the U.S. subprime mortgage defaults has spread to Europe and Asia. Fully 60% of Americans now believe that a depression -- replete with 25% unemployment and widespread homelessness and hunger -- is "likely." And just 9% of Americans, an all-time low, are satisfied with the way things are going in the country.
It's gotten so bad, in fact, that the Booyah Bull himself, Jim Cramer, told investors on Monday to pull any money they need for the next five years out of the market.
Now, that's not necessarily bad advice
Of course, you should never be investing the hard-earned dollars that you need to pay your bills over the next few years. But if you heed the wisdom of the late Sir John Templeton -- whom we recently eulogized as the world's most important investor -- you should always be ready, willing, and able to invest some of your long-term savings in common stocks at -- and this is crucial -- the point of maximum pessimism.
What can happen when you buy at the point of maximum pessimism? Well, as Sir John proved when he famously purchased 100 shares of 104 companies trading for $1 per share or less in 1939, as the market panicked at the outset of World War II, you can make a lot of money.
The good news for you today is that given that data presented above, we're getting pretty darn close to that point -- only 9% of Americans are left to be convinced.
An important caveat
This, however, does not mean that the market has bottomed. It could well get worse before it gets better, particularly since the credit markets remain frozen and home prices look like they have a bit more "rationalizing" to do.
But some stellar businesses are already selling at hefty discounts to the norm:
Company
Current P/E ....5-Year Average P/E
Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT)
12.3....25.1
Paychex (Nasdaq: PAYX)
17.9....35.3
Intel (Nasdaq: INTC)
13.4....24.4
Fastenal (Nasdaq: FAST)
20.9....33.9
Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers (NYSE: RBA)
27.2....31.2
Nike (NYSE: NKE)
15.3....20.0
Best Buy (NYSE: BBY)
12.1....22.4
Data from Morningstar.com.
Are you brave enough to start today?
Rather than try to time the market and catch these names on the way back up, start dollar-cost averaging into an array of superior names now (remember, Sir John purchased shares in 104 companies) with a commitment to holding shares for the next five years or more. That's the only time-tested way to turn current market volatility to your advantage, and the rewards will be great for those with the courage and resources to do so.
The key, though (and this bears repeating), is to average in -- keeping some money on the sidelines if the market continues to drop -- and adding new money, even in a small amounts, on a regular basis. That's a particularly prudent tack today, given the low costs of trading and the violent unpredictability of today's stock market.
Tim Hanson owns no shares of any company mentioned ... yet. The Motley Fool owns shares of Best Buy. Microsoft, Intel, and Best Buy are Motley Fool Inside Value recommendations. Best Buy is also a Stock Advisor pick. Paychex is an Income Investor selection.
Read/Post Comments (74)
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2008/10/09/how-bad-will-it-get.aspx
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