myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.

Friday 15 May 2009

Investing in a Bear Market

Investing in a Bear Market
How does one think about investing in a bear market?

Rules for Investing discipline
Many people think that the best way to invest is to fill it, shut it and forget it - and they are reinforced by the dramatic successes of people who found Reliance shares in their grandfather's trunk or bought L&T in the last bull run and held on for dear life.

Featured Comment: What is a rights issue?
Sujit asks:

Wednesday, September 05, 2007
Sensex overvalued? A Walk Down History Lane
Morgan Stanley thinks the Sensex is about 11% above fair value.

Wednesday, August 01, 2007
How To Handle A Sinking Market
The mayhem is here. Nifty is down 183 points to 4345 and Sensex is down 615 points to 14935. A 4% drop in a single day of trade. Every single index is in the red, and nearly 90% of stocks are down today. Is it time for the bears? Is it time to exit? To go home and forget about stocks for a while?

Sticky: Shenoy's Investment Fundas
This post contains an organised series of links to my blog posts about investing.
Why Invest?
Are you Investing or just Saving?
How to go about investing
Creating an Investment Game Plan
The Value Cost Averaging Strategy
Stocks
Opening a brokerage account in India (21/5/07)
Investing in Stock Markets: A roundup of posts
Introduction to Shares, IPOs and Stock Markets
IPOs: What's important in an offer document
What are EPS and P/E ratios?
How to choose stocks in a downturn
Mutual Funds
Introduction to Mutual Funds
Mutual Fund FAQs
Dividend option or Growth option?
Difference between shares and mutual funds.
Choosing Funds: The Dividend Yield Strategy
Closed Ended Funds: Misleading name and High costs.
Myth: Is a lower NAV better for you?
Mutual Fund Dividends: Playing with your own money
How Entry and Exit loads affect you
Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)
What are ETFs?
Insurance
What is Insurance?
How much Insurance do you need?
Unit Linked Insurance Plans (ULIPs)
How ULIPs can loot you: A real example Term Plans + MFs are better than ULIPs: With data!ULIPs' lower management fees must be matched by performance ULIPs: A Good Investment?
ULIP Net Asset Values: Where to find them.
Comparing ULIP returns to Mutual Funds
Term Plan Premiums
Real Estate
Rent vs. Buy: Should you buy or rent?
The Real Estate Cash Flow Calculator
Taxation
Filling out IT return forms (ITR-1) for 2006-07 *NEW*
How can FMPs save you tax? Capital Gains Tax: A primer
Fundas: Long Term Capital Gains
Bonus Shares: A Tax Saving Scheme?
Can I really save Rs. 33,660 in tax?
Futures and Options
What are Employee Stock Options (ESOPs)?
An Introduction to Futures & Options
Become a Smarter Investor
Liquid funds are better than Fixed Deposits
The cost of IPO funding
Capital Guarantee Plus Appreciation: Possible?
How much money do you need for retirement?
SIPs are not necessarily less risky
Don't believe media headlines; do your own research
Beware of Dividend pushers
Timing the market: A good thing
Commentary
DLF IPO Analysis *NEW*
Buffet on Risking what you should not*NEW*
Small number are not really small.
FIIs are not the source of all problems
Budget 2007 Analysis: A compendium of posts
NFO: Benchmark Gold ETF
Is the Nifty Overvalued? (Feb 7, 2007)
The lack of irrational exuberance (Jan 26, 2007)
Can I save Rs. 33,660 in tax? (Jan 21, 2007)
Your savings may be taxed next year (Dec 4, 2006)
The stock market is all about percentages
Links
Blogs talking about Indian Investments
GlossaryGlossary of Investment Terms, Part 1.
Linkfests: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7

Sunday, October 29, 2006
Bonus shares: A tax saving scheme?
Lots of Indian companies offer "bonus" shares: a 1:1 bonus means that for every share you own, you get one "free" share. Now given that the company's fundamentals don't change, the number of outstanding shares doubles but the net profit remains the same. Meaning, to retain the same P/E, the share price must come down by half.

Monday, January 30, 2006
Two Great posts for investors
Charu Majumdar has two very good posts on investing:
Ten Steps to Wealth Creation (talks about how you can invest and grow your money)
Personal Investment Questions answered: Describes thought processes a lay investor would have. Makes for some very good reading. Charu also reconfirms my view that term insurance is the only insurance that makes any sense.

Friday, January 20, 2006
Insurance: A primer
Everyone's talking about Insurance nowadays. What is it? And why should you, a regular salaried employee buy it? Why should the business owner buy it? Why should ANYONE buy it?

No comments:

My 18 points guide to Successfully compounding your money in Stocks

Be a good stock picker.
Think as a business owner.
Always look at value rather than the price. Do the homework.
Buy and hold is alright for selected stocks.
Compounding is your friend, get this to work its magic.
Mr. Market is there to be taken advantage of. Do not be the sucker instead. BFS;STS.
Always buy a lot when the price is low.
Never buy when the stock is overpriced.
It is alright to buy when the selected stock is at a fair price.
Phasing in or dollar cost averaging is safe for such stocks during a downtrend, unless the price is still obviously too high.
Do not time the market for such or any stocks.
By keeping to the above strategy, the returns will be delivered through the growth of the company's business.
So, when do you sell the stock? Almost never, as long as the fundamentals remain sound and the future prospects intact.
The downside risk is protected through only buying when the price is low or fairly priced.
Tactical dynamic asset allocation or rebalancing based on valuation can be employed but this sounds easier than is practical, except in extreme market situations.
Sell urgently when the company business fundamental has deteriorated irreversibly.
You may also wish to sell should the growth of the company has obviously slowed and you can reinvest into another company with greater growth potential of similar quality. However, unlike point 16, you can do so leisurely.
In conclusion, a critical key to successful investing is in your stock picking ability.

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2012/07/my-18-points-guide-to-successfully.html

11 Lessons From Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch taught me:

1. Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.
2. Never invest in any idea you can’t illustrate with a crayon.
3. Over the short term, there may be no correlation between the success of a company’s operations and the success of its stock. Over the long term, there’s a 100% correlation.
4. Buying stocks without studying the companies is the same as playing poker – and never looking at your cards.
5. Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies.
6. Owning stock is like having children. Don’t get involved with more than you can handle.
7. When the insiders are buying, it’s a good sign.
8. Unless you’re a short seller, it never pays to be pessimistic.
9. A stock market decline is as predictable as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you’re prepared, it can’t hurt you.
10. Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach.
11. Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what’s actually happening to the companies in which you’ve invested.

Lynch’s advice had a profound effect on my stock market approach. He taught me that investment success isn’t the result of developing the right macro-economic view or deciding when to jump in or out of the market. Success is about researching companies to identify those that are likely to report positive surprises.

Capital Expenditure

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 25%. Less is better.

Capital Expenditures are expenses on:
- fixed assets such as equipment, property, or industrial buildings
- fixing problems with an asset
- preparing an asset to be used in business
- restoring property
- starting new businesses

A good company will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 50%.

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of less than 25%.

Less is better.

Benjamin Graham's 113 Wise Words

The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons' mistakes of judgement."

Philip Fisher's Wise Words

"The refusal to sell at a loss, while completely natural and normal, is probably one of the most dangerous in which we can indulge ourselves in the entire investment process.

More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could 'at least come out even' than from any other single reason. If to these actual losses are added the profits that might have been made through the proper reinvestment of these funds if such reinvestment had been made when the mistake was first realized, the cost of self-indulgence becomes truly tremendous."

(Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits)

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Here is the overriding primary test, followed by observations on why it is so critically important:

Knowing all that you now know and expect about the company and its stock (not what you originally believed or hoped at time of purchase), and assuming that you had available capital, and assuming that it would not cause a portfolio imbalance to do so, would you buy this stock today, at today's price?

No equivocation. Yes or no?

Answers such as maybe or probably are not acceptable since they are ways of dodging the issue. No investor probably buys a stock; they either place an order or do not.

Here is the implication of your answer to that critical test: if you did not answer with a clear affirmative, you should sell; only if you said a strong yes, are you justified to hold.

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Ideally a stock you plan to purchase should have all of the following charateristics:

• A rising trend of earnings dividends and book value per share.
• A balance sheet with less debt than other companies in its particular industry.
• A P/E ratio no higher than average.
• A dividend yield that suits your particular needs.
• A below-average dividend pay-out ratio.
• A history of earnings and dividends not pockmarked by erratic ups and downs.
• Companies whose ROE is 15 or better.
• A ratio of price to cash flow (P/CF) that is not too high when compared to other stocks in the same industry.

Margin of Safety Concept: Stocks should be bought like groceries, not like perfume

The high CAGR in the early years of the investing period, due to buying at a discount, tended to decline and approach that of the intrinsic EPS GR of the companies over a longer investment time-frame.

Chapter 20 - “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment

A single quote by Graham on page 516 struck me:

Observation over many years has taught us that the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions.

Basically, Graham is saying that most stock investors lose money because they invest in companies that seem good at a particular point in time, but are lacking the fundamentals of a long-lasting stable company.

This seems obvious on the surface, but it’s actually a great argument for thinking more carefully about your individual stock investments. If most of your losses come from buying companies that seem healthy but really aren’t, isn’t that a profound argument for carefully studying any company you might invest in?

myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Friday 15 May 2009

Investing in a Bear Market

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All equity security investments present a risk of loss of capital

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Benjamin Graham

Sell the losers, let the winners run.

Investment Style

Warren Buffett

Political and Economic News

Interesting Blogs