Sunday 28 March 2010

Should these 'not knowable in advance' factors influence your investing?


The economy, interest rates, fuel prices, commodity prices, foreign exchange, price of gold and geopolitical situations; should not these influence your investing?


Yes, these are hugely important factors. However, they are not predictable and largely out of our control. They are not knowable in advance. It is better to distance oneself from thinking about them when assessing the business to invest in.


Therefore, the approach adopted should generally not be a top-down macroeconomic one, but a bottom-up microeconomic one.


“The implication is with the passage of time, a good business over a long period of time produce results to the investor over time.”


Also read:
The Ultimate Signal to Load Up on Stocks?
Legendary fund manager Peter Lynch famously said that if investors spend 13 minutes thinking about the economy, they've wasted 10 minutes. Granted, Lynch wasn't managing money during a mega-macroeconomic crisis of the sort we're facing ...

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