The Internet and cable networks are full on a daily basis of these types of market calls. In order to be correct, a market prognosticator needs to be correct not only about short and medium-term economic fundamentals but also about market participants’ mass psychology. Can anybody do this on a consistent basis?
The world pays attention because the majority of market participants are speculators not investors. What’s the difference? If you’re a speculator you’re focused on trying to figure out what the price of a given security is going to do in the short term.
If you’re an investor, you’re focused on doing deep fundamental research and finding a situation where the value you receive in making the investment is greater than the cash you invest. Moreover, the payoff more than compensates you for the risk that you are taking. An investor generally has no idea when the market will recognize the under-appreciated value in his investment. He doesn’t overly fret about this because the timing – absent a clear catalyst – is generally not known.
The problem with this thinking is that the evidence shows that the real wealth has been generated by true investors.
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