Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes : Hong Leong Bank

Saturday, 22 August 2026

Hong Leong Bank

Summary of Financial Performance (2016–2025)

Over the past decade, Hong Leong Bank has demonstrated consistent and resilient earnings growth, with net income rising from MYR 1.9 billion in 2016 to MYR 4.27 billion in 2025—a cumulative increase of ~124%. This growth has been driven by a steady expansion in operating revenue, disciplined cost management, and a significant contribution from associates and joint ventures. The bank has also become progressively more generous with shareholder returns, as seen in the sharp increase in dividends per share from 41 sen in 2016 to 96 sen in 2025.

Key Observations and Discussion

1. Steady Revenue Growth with a Pause in 2019–2020
Operating revenue grew consistently from MYR 4.18 billion in 2016 to a peak of MYR 6.40 billion in 2025. The only period of stagnation was between 2019 and 2020 (MYR 4.78 billion both years), which coincides with the global pandemic and a low-interest-rate environment that compressed net interest income. However, the bank recovered quickly, with revenue accelerating from 2021 onward.

2. Net Interest Income Volatility Reflects Rate Cycles
Net interest income (NII) grew from MYR 2.66 billion in 2016 to MYR 3.99 billion in 2025. Interestingly, NII dipped in 2019 (MYR 2.76 billion) and 2020 (MYR 2.86 billion) due to lower interest income and higher interest expense, but then surged in 2023–2025 as interest rates normalized. The bank’s ability to grow NII despite fluctuating rate environments speaks to its effective asset-liability management.

3. Loan Loss Provisions – A Cyclical, Prudent Approach
Provisions have varied significantly year-to-year, reflecting the bank’s responsiveness to economic conditions:

2020 saw a spike in provisions (MYR -654 million) as the bank braced for pandemic-related defaults.
2023–2024 reversed the trend, with provisions turning positive (i.e., write-backs), indicating better-than-expected asset quality.
2025 provisions increased again (MYR 383 million), suggesting a more cautious outlook, possibly in response to macroeconomic uncertainties.

This cyclical pattern shows that management is proactive in building buffers during good times and releasing them when risks subside—a hallmark of prudent risk management.

4. Non-Interest Income and Associates Are Major Growth Engines
Income from non-interest operations (fees, trading, forex, etc.) grew from negative territory in 2016 (-MYR 221 million) to nearly MYR 1 billion in 2025, indicating successful diversification beyond traditional lending. Even more impressive is the income from associates and joint ventures, which rose from MYR 333 million in 2016 to MYR 1.47 billion in 2025—now accounting for ~27% of pre-tax profit. This suggests that the bank’s strategic investments in other financial entities (e.g., its stake in Bank of Chengdu) are paying off handsomely.

5. Profitability Has Risen Steadily
Pre-tax profit more than doubled from MYR 2.38 billion in 2016 to MYR 5.36 billion in 2025, despite higher taxes in recent years (MYR 1.09 billion in 2025 vs. MYR 478 million in 2016). Net income growth has been slightly tempered by tax increases, but the bank has still delivered a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of ~9.4% in net income over the decade—a very solid performance for a large, established bank.

6. Shareholder Returns Have Improved Dramatically

Earnings per share (EPS) grew from 87.81 sen in 2016 to 197.14 sen in 2025, more than doubling over ten years.
Dividends per share (DPS) rose even faster—from 41 sen to 96 sen—reflecting management’s confidence in sustained earnings and strong cash generation.
The dividend payout ratio has fluctuated between ~21% and ~49%, with a notable jump to 49% in 2024–2025. This suggests the bank is now returning a larger share of profits to shareholders, possibly because it has reached a scale where retained earnings for growth are less critical.

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My 18 points guide to Successfully compounding your money in Stocks

Be a good stock picker.
Think as a business owner.
Always look at value rather than the price. Do the homework.
Buy and hold is alright for selected stocks.
Compounding is your friend, get this to work its magic.
Mr. Market is there to be taken advantage of. Do not be the sucker instead. BFS;STS.
Always buy a lot when the price is low.
Never buy when the stock is overpriced.
It is alright to buy when the selected stock is at a fair price.
Phasing in or dollar cost averaging is safe for such stocks during a downtrend, unless the price is still obviously too high.
Do not time the market for such or any stocks.
By keeping to the above strategy, the returns will be delivered through the growth of the company's business.
So, when do you sell the stock? Almost never, as long as the fundamentals remain sound and the future prospects intact.
The downside risk is protected through only buying when the price is low or fairly priced.
Tactical dynamic asset allocation or rebalancing based on valuation can be employed but this sounds easier than is practical, except in extreme market situations.
Sell urgently when the company business fundamental has deteriorated irreversibly.
You may also wish to sell should the growth of the company has obviously slowed and you can reinvest into another company with greater growth potential of similar quality. However, unlike point 16, you can do so leisurely.
In conclusion, a critical key to successful investing is in your stock picking ability.

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2012/07/my-18-points-guide-to-successfully.html

11 Lessons From Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch taught me:

1. Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.
2. Never invest in any idea you can’t illustrate with a crayon.
3. Over the short term, there may be no correlation between the success of a company’s operations and the success of its stock. Over the long term, there’s a 100% correlation.
4. Buying stocks without studying the companies is the same as playing poker – and never looking at your cards.
5. Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies.
6. Owning stock is like having children. Don’t get involved with more than you can handle.
7. When the insiders are buying, it’s a good sign.
8. Unless you’re a short seller, it never pays to be pessimistic.
9. A stock market decline is as predictable as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you’re prepared, it can’t hurt you.
10. Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach.
11. Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what’s actually happening to the companies in which you’ve invested.

Lynch’s advice had a profound effect on my stock market approach. He taught me that investment success isn’t the result of developing the right macro-economic view or deciding when to jump in or out of the market. Success is about researching companies to identify those that are likely to report positive surprises.

Capital Expenditure

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 25%. Less is better.

Capital Expenditures are expenses on:
- fixed assets such as equipment, property, or industrial buildings
- fixing problems with an asset
- preparing an asset to be used in business
- restoring property
- starting new businesses

A good company will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 50%.

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of less than 25%.

Less is better.

Benjamin Graham's 113 Wise Words

The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons' mistakes of judgement."

Philip Fisher's Wise Words

"The refusal to sell at a loss, while completely natural and normal, is probably one of the most dangerous in which we can indulge ourselves in the entire investment process.

More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could 'at least come out even' than from any other single reason. If to these actual losses are added the profits that might have been made through the proper reinvestment of these funds if such reinvestment had been made when the mistake was first realized, the cost of self-indulgence becomes truly tremendous."

(Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits)

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Here is the overriding primary test, followed by observations on why it is so critically important:

Knowing all that you now know and expect about the company and its stock (not what you originally believed or hoped at time of purchase), and assuming that you had available capital, and assuming that it would not cause a portfolio imbalance to do so, would you buy this stock today, at today's price?

No equivocation. Yes or no?

Answers such as maybe or probably are not acceptable since they are ways of dodging the issue. No investor probably buys a stock; they either place an order or do not.

Here is the implication of your answer to that critical test: if you did not answer with a clear affirmative, you should sell; only if you said a strong yes, are you justified to hold.

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Ideally a stock you plan to purchase should have all of the following charateristics:

• A rising trend of earnings dividends and book value per share.
• A balance sheet with less debt than other companies in its particular industry.
• A P/E ratio no higher than average.
• A dividend yield that suits your particular needs.
• A below-average dividend pay-out ratio.
• A history of earnings and dividends not pockmarked by erratic ups and downs.
• Companies whose ROE is 15 or better.
• A ratio of price to cash flow (P/CF) that is not too high when compared to other stocks in the same industry.

Margin of Safety Concept: Stocks should be bought like groceries, not like perfume

The high CAGR in the early years of the investing period, due to buying at a discount, tended to decline and approach that of the intrinsic EPS GR of the companies over a longer investment time-frame.

Chapter 20 - “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment

A single quote by Graham on page 516 struck me:

Observation over many years has taught us that the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions.

Basically, Graham is saying that most stock investors lose money because they invest in companies that seem good at a particular point in time, but are lacking the fundamentals of a long-lasting stable company.

This seems obvious on the surface, but it’s actually a great argument for thinking more carefully about your individual stock investments. If most of your losses come from buying companies that seem healthy but really aren’t, isn’t that a profound argument for carefully studying any company you might invest in?

Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes

Saturday, 22 August 2026

Hong Leong Bank

Summary of Financial Performance (2016–2025)

Key Observations and Discussion

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All equity security investments present a risk of loss of capital

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Benjamin Graham

Sell the losers, let the winners run.

Investment Style

Warren Buffett

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