Saturday, 22 August 2026

How to analyse a bank's financial statements

To analyze a bank's financial statements properly, you have to completely change your mindset.

For a normal company (like a carmaker or a retailer), you analyze sales, margins, and inventory. For a bank, loans are its "inventory," deposits are its "raw materials," and risk is its primary expense.

Here is a comprehensive, step-by-step guideline for reading and analyzing a bank's financial statements, broken down into the three core reports and key ratios.


Part 1: The Income Statement (The "Profit Engine")

Ignore the top line. Focus on the bank's specific layers.

Step 1: Analyze Net Interest Income (NII)
Formula: Interest Income - Interest Expense = NII
This is the bank's core profit from borrowing short-term (deposits) and lending long-term (loans).

  • What to look for: Steady, growing NII is good.

  • The catch: NII can grow purely because interest rates rose, not because the bank is lending more. To filter this out, you must look at the Net Interest Margin (NIM) (see ratio section below). If NII grows but NIM shrinks, it means the bank is growing by taking on more loans but making less profit on each one—a red flag.

Step 2: Analyze Provisions for Loan Losses (Credit Costs)
This is the most critical line for a bank. It is money set aside for loans that are likely to go bad.

  • What to look for: Compare provisions to the previous year and to Net Interest Income.

  • The rule: If NII grows by 10%, but provisions grow by 30%, the bank is getting riskier. A sudden spike in provisions (like Public Bank's 2020 figure) usually precedes an economic downturn.

  • The catch: If provisions are too low for too long, management might be overly optimistic and under-reserving for future defaults. Healthy banks have provisions that rise and fall predictably with the economic cycle.

Step 3: Analyze Non-Interest Income (Fee Income)
This includes service charges, wealth management fees, credit card fees, and trading revenue.

  • What to look for: A growing percentage of non-interest income is excellent because it is less dependent on interest rate fluctuations. However, be wary of trading income—it is highly volatile and risky compared to steady service fees.

Step 4: The Bottom Line (Net Income)
Banks usually have very stable net income margins (around 20-35%). If you see a massive jump in net income, make sure it came from NII growth or fee income, not from a one-time tax benefit or sale of assets.


Part 2: The Balance Sheet (The "Risk Warehouse")

This is where the bank stores its assets (loans) and liabilities (deposits). The quality of these items matters more than their size.

1. The Asset Side (What the bank owns)

  • Cash & Securities: High-quality government bonds are safe but yield low returns. Riskier corporate bonds yield more but carry default risk.

  • Gross Loans (The biggest line): Look at the composition. Is the loan book dominated by residential mortgages (safe, stable) or commercial real estate/unsecured personal loans (riskier, higher yield)?

  • The Critical Line – Allowance for Loan Losses (ALL): This sits right below Gross Loans on the balance sheet.

    • Gross Loans - Allowance for Loan Losses = Net Loans

    • This is the accumulated rainy-day fund for all bad loans. Compare this allowance to the bank's Non-Performing Loans (NPLs)—it should comfortably cover them.

2. The Liability Side (What the bank owes)

  • Deposits: This is a bank's cheapest source of funding.

    • Current/Savings Accounts (CASA): These pay very low interest. A high percentage of CASA deposits is a massive competitive advantage because it lowers the bank's overall Interest Expense.

    • Fixed Deposits: These pay higher interest. If a bank relies too heavily on fixed deposits, its Interest Expense rises, squeezing NII.

3. Shareholders' Equity (Book Value)
This is the safety buffer for depositors. If loans go bad, equity absorbs the first losses. A bank with thin equity relative to its loans is highly leveraged and risky.


Part 3: The Cash Flow Statement (The "Liquidity Pulse")

For normal companies, cash flow from operations is king. For banks, cash flow from operations is massive and noisy because loans and deposits are constantly moving. Therefore, most analysts skip the operating cash flow section and focus on:

  • Financing Activities: Are they issuing new shares or bonds to raise capital?

  • Dividends: Banks are heavily regulated and usually pay consistent dividends. A sudden cut in the dividend payout ratio (as seen in Public Bank's 2025 data) is a major signal—it usually means regulators are forcing the bank to retain capital to meet stricter requirements.


Part 4: The 5 Most Critical Ratios for Bank Analysis

Throw away P/E ratios for a moment. These are the specific metrics used by banking analysts:

RatioFormulaWhat it Tells YouHealthy Sign
Net Interest Margin (NIM)(Net Interest Income / Average Earning Assets)The pure profitability of the bank's core lending business.Stable or slowly expanding. A shrinking NIM means intense competition or a falling rate environment hurting profits.
Cost-to-Income Ratio(Operating Expenses / Total Income)Operational efficiency. How much does it cost to run the bank?Below 50%. Lower is better. A rising ratio means the bank is spending too much on branches and staff.
Non-Performing Loan (NPL) Ratio(Non-Performing Loans / Total Gross Loans)Asset quality. The percentage of loans that are not being repaid.Below 3%. A sudden jump means the economy is struggling and provisions will soon follow.
Loan Loss Coverage Ratio(Allowance for Loan Losses / Non-Performing Loans)How well the bank is protected. Can its saved-up provisions cover its actual bad loans?Above 100%. If this drops below 100%, the bank doesn't have enough money set aside to cover current defaults.
Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) Ratio(Core Equity / Risk-Weighted Assets)The bank's ultimate safety net. Mandated by regulators (Basel III).Above 10%. A higher CET1 means the bank is super-safe but might be under-utilizing its capital to generate returns.

Part 5: A 5-Step Analysis Framework

When you pick up a bank's annual report, follow this exact order:

  1. Start with the NPL Ratio: Is it rising or falling? If it's rising, the economy is weakening.

  2. Check the Coverage Ratio: Does the bank have enough provisions saved up to cover those rising NPLs? If not, they will have to slash future profits to fill the gap.

  3. Analyze the Funding Mix (CASA vs. Fixed Deposits): Is the bank using cheap current accounts to fund itself? A falling CASA ratio means the bank's funding costs are rising.

  4. Look at the Efficiency (Cost-to-Income): Is management controlling costs effectively, or are they expanding branches too aggressively?

  5. Cross-check the Dividend Payout: Is the payout ratio sustainable (usually 40-60%)? If they suddenly retain all their earnings (like Public Bank in 2025), it usually means regulators are demanding higher CET1 capital, which limits future growth.


Summary Checklist for a "Good" Bank

  • Profitability: NIM is stable or growing; NII grows faster than Provisions.

  • Asset Quality: NPL ratio is low and stable; Coverage ratio is well over 100%.

  • Capital Safety: CET1 ratio is comfortably above regulatory minimums (e.g., >10%).

  • Funding: Relies heavily on low-cost CASA deposits rather than expensive wholesale funding.

  • Governance: Avoids complex, opaque trading assets and focuses on plain-vanilla lending.

Final Warning: Never look at a bank's "Net Income" in isolation. A bank can show record profits while simultaneously loading up on risky loans that will only default 2 years later. Always prioritize asset quality and capital adequacy over headline earnings growth.

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